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sansa, arya, and dany

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7 minutes ago, Risto said:

But that group of five doesn't exist anymore as we now have to count Sansa there. You assume that Sansa has lower chance on the basis of something that has been said (and ultimately refuted) 20 years ago. I think that outline is useful for some other things, but not in terms of predicting the ending as the story and the characters are utterly different. Martin outlined that with one Sansa in mind. Now, his Sansa, the Sansa we know (and love :D ) is completely different character. I would say that she has the same chance of survival as Arya or Tyrion, for example. We simply can't forget the story we have in order to put so much emphasis on the outline. 

I wouldn't rule the outline out completely. George used to say he knew the broad strokes of the story since 1991 and this outline is from 93. I'm not saying Sansa isn't a main character but she certainly wasn't originally conceptualized as one. Hell, I believe George even stated that she was created as a foil to Arya and to make the Starks not seem like a perfect family. I think Sansa has a good chance of surviving but we can't use the outline for that point since the outline pretty much stresses who the main characters (at the time at least) of the saga were and that they survive. We're just noting that she was not included in that list and taking that into consideration. Even though I think it is likely that she survives, I don't think it is a guarantee

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Just now, Commander Jon Snow said:

I wouldn't rule the outline out completely. George used to say he knew the broad strokes of the story since 1991 and this outline is from 93. I'm not saying Sansa isn't a main character but she certainly wasn't originally conceptualized as one. Hell, I believe George even stated that she was created as a foil to Arya and to make the Starks not seem like a perfect family. I think Sansa has a good chance of surviving but we can't use the outline for that point since the outline pretty much stresses who the main characters (at the time at least) of the saga were and that they survive. We're just noting that she was not included in that list and taking that into consideration. Even though I think it is likely that she survives, I don't think it is a guarantee

In outline we have one Sansa, in our story we have another. Yes, the original Sansa was supposed to be foil to Arya, she was supposed to marry Joffrey, has his child etc. As we know, none of that happened. In the story we have, Sansa and Arya are on the same level of some meta scale of importance (if we have to compare it)

In analyzing the outline and what it means to the story, a lot of people have forgotten the ACTUAL story. And in the story we have and the one we discuss, we have six main characters - Jon, Dany and Tyrion on one and Bran, Sansa and Arya on another. We can not take outline as more important than 25+ of Sansa's chapters, the intricate story of little girl being transformed into formidable force. The story of children growing and changing the world, that is Martin's story and ultimately, that is Sansa's story. We see an entitled girl living in fantasy being forced to grow up and change her beliefs while at the same time remaining her basic human decency. That is why Sansa is one of the heroines of the story. Not because she is a Stark, or because I, or someone else want that, but because her story (just like Jon's, Dany's, Arya's, Bran's, even Tyrion's) is what ASOIAF is really all about - children growing up and changing the world. Outline Sansa is dead. We have someone else. 

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On 9/7/2017 at 6:51 PM, Cron said:

I would argue that Jon cannot have surrendered his claim, cuz he didn't even KNOW he had it.  I cannot imagine any rules of succession that would say a person has forfeited a right they didn't even know they had.  Perhaps "Jon Snow, the King in the North" has yielded to Dany, but "Aegon Targaryen" HAS NOT.

In my mind, it is indisputable that Jon has the better claim, and frankly I'd say the number of GoT followers/fans who deny it or are arguing otherwise is very, very small.  In fact, i highly doubt there is any precedent in the history of Westeros for what you are saying (cuz the current circumstances between Jon and Dany are so bizarre), so I'm guessing that, at most your theory is just speculation.

Now, for the rest of what you said, I'll make it a hidden comment to save anyone who doesn't want to be spoiled:

 

  Hide contents

We have been told the names of 5 people who will survive.  Jon and Dany are on that list, and Sansa is not.  So, frankly, I don't think it's likely that Jon and Dany are going to die and Sansa will survive to rule with Tyrion.

 

I agree with the first part, although if shove comes to push anyone can rule by way of conquest, like say I cannot imagine anyone questioning the heritage of the Night King (Stark or not) if he were victorious lol

As for the hidden contents 

Spoiler

we have not been told that these characters will survive for sure.  That was Martin's original intention in a very early outline of the series.  At the time it was to be only a trilogy, not 7 books and in it Arya/Jon/Tyrion were in a love triangle situation in that Arya and Jon were the incestuous couple and Tyrion had fallen for her and had Jon as a rival.  Also in that outline Jaime was the villain Cersei is now and murdered his way to the throne or something on those lines.  Whereas I believe he had the topics of the plot kind of work out writing is not a static process, certainly not one lasting these many years and a huge amount of that outline frankly cannot happen in what George has done since so, I personally, take that outline with a slight pinch of salt (for some of it will probably be true in terms of survival).  I am inclined to believe that either Dany or Jon will die and of course just because a character is not mentioned as a survivor it doesn't mean he/she will not be.

 

Edited by Morgana Lannister

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2 hours ago, Risto said:

In outline we have one Sansa, in our story we have another. Yes, the original Sansa was supposed to be foil to Arya, she was supposed to marry Joffrey, has his child etc. As we know, none of that happened.

A lot of the plot outlined in the 1993 letter did happen: Tyrion being blamed for Joffrey's murder and going into exile, Sansa siding with the Lannisters over her family and coming to regret it, Winterfell getting sacked and burned, the deaths of Joffrey, Ned, Robb, and Catelyn, etc. etc. GRRM has also said many times that the ending he's going towards is the same one he's had in mind since 1991. The outline quote is quite clear that in 1993 he intended to spare Tyrion, Jon, Dany, Arya and Bran despite doing his best to create the impression that no character is safe. That doesn't bode well for Sansa, since she is left off that list, and there's no indication that GRRM has upgraded her from her precarious status in the outline.

 

Quote

In analyzing the outline and what it means to the story, a lot of people have forgotten the ACTUAL story.

If GRRM, who has said several times prior to the outline being leaked that he has always had the same ending in mind, wrote a letter in 1993 in which he...

1) tells his prospective publishers he intends to fool the audience into believing no one is safe,

2) provides a list of five characters who are safe (since they will make it through "all three volumes"), 

3) includes three Stark siblings (well, cousin) on that list, and

4) leaves Sansa off that list...

Any reader would be a fool not to pay attention to the potential implications of that for ASOIAF.

At the very least, it rules Sansa out of any endgame queen scenario, as previously pointed out. I would also argue it rules out Sansa ending up with Winterfell, since GRRM no doubt intended that for one of the Starks he always planned on surviving the books. 

Edited by Newstar

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4 hours ago, Morgana Lannister said:

I agree with the first part, although if shove comes to push anyone can rule by way of conquest, like say I cannot imagine anyone questioning the heritage of the Night King (Stark or not) if he were victorious lol

As for the hidden contents 

  Reveal hidden contents

we have not been told that these characters will survive for sure.  That was Martin's original intention in a very early outline of the series.  At the time it was to be only a trilogy, not 7 books and in it Arya/Jon/Tyrion were in a love triangle situation in that Arya and Jon were the incestuous couple and Tyrion had fallen for her and had Jon as a rival.  Also in that outline Jaime was the villain Cersei is now and murdered his way to the throne or something on those lines.  Whereas I believe he had the topics of the plot kind of work out writing is not a static process, certainly not one lasting these many years and a huge amount of that outline frankly cannot happen in what George has done since so, I personally, take that outline with a slight pinch of salt (for some of it will probably be true in terms of survival).  I am inclined to believe that either Dany or Jon will die and of course just because a character is not mentioned as a survivor it doesn't mean he/she will not be.

 

Yeah, interesting stuff in your hidden comment.   Someone else here basically mentioned some of that too, I think.

Who knows, maybe it is all more uncertain than I thought, but my humble opinion is that Jon, Dany, Arya and Tyrion WILL all live, and Bran is becoming something of a question mark in my mind.  (In fact, I believe Jon, Dany and Tyrion will be the "3 heads of the dragon" tri-archy in the end).  Plus, of course, Arya is very popular, and I think an eventual sequel will feature her (and some other characters) pretty prominently.  (To anyone reading this, yes, I know we've been told the first spin-off will not be a direct sequel, but I DO believe a direct sequel will be made eventually.  It might be 5 or 10 years from now, but there's too much money to be made for it to never happen.)

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42 minutes ago, Cron said:

Yeah, interesting stuff in your hidden comment.   Someone else here basically mentioned some of that too, I think.

Who knows, maybe it is all more uncertain than I thought, but my humble opinion is that Jon, Dany, Arya and Tyrion WILL all live, and Bran is becoming something of a question mark in my mind.  (In fact, I believe Jon, Dany and Tyrion will be the "3 heads of the dragon" tri-archy in the end).  Plus, of course, Arya is very popular, and I think an eventual sequel will feature her (and some other characters) pretty prominently.  (To anyone reading this, yes, I know we've been told the first spin-off will not be a direct sequel, but I DO believe a direct sequel will be made eventually.  It might be 5 or 10 years from now, but there's too much money to be made for it to never happen.)

Maybe GRRM avoid the sequel at all costs because a sequel would give away the answers to some of the ambiguities he wants to leave us with

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7 hours ago, Newstar said:

That doesn't bode well for Sansa, since she is left off that list, and there's no indication that GRRM has upgraded her from her precarious status in the outline.

True, if we forget the incorporation of his MAIN theme of the series in her narrative, connected her stronger with her family, put her in place to deal with certain villains of the story, wrote 25+ chapters of her growing and essentially wrote her in the same way he did Arya and Bran. I am sorry, but there is every indication he changed Sansa's status.

7 hours ago, Newstar said:

Any reader would be a fool not to pay attention to the potential implications of that for ASOIAF. 

And we would all be even greater fools if we don't even consider the possibility of GRRM changing his mind, writing different story and incorporating some elements that were not there 20+ years ago. 

Simply, two pages of 24-year-old outline can't weigh more than 5 books and countless pages we actually got. And that is the problem with analyzing the outline. Not that analysis is wrong but that, in most part, people suddenly forget what we have in the story. 

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5 hours ago, Cron said:

Yeah, interesting stuff in your hidden comment.   Someone else here basically mentioned some of that too, I think.

Who knows, maybe it is all more uncertain than I thought, but my humble opinion is that Jon, Dany, Arya and Tyrion WILL all live, and Bran is becoming something of a question mark in my mind.  (In fact, I believe Jon, Dany and Tyrion will be the "3 heads of the dragon" tri-archy in the end).  Plus, of course, Arya is very popular, and I think an eventual sequel will feature her (and some other characters) pretty prominently.  (To anyone reading this, yes, I know we've been told the first spin-off will not be a direct sequel, but I DO believe a direct sequel will be made eventually.  It might be 5 or 10 years from now, but there's too much money to be made for it to never happen.)

You may well be right.  I would love a spin off I have to say.  Arya and Tyrion I am pretty sure they will survive.  I always thought Jon, Dany and Tyrion would be the three heads of the dragon too and I certainly think there will be major political reforms (although not a democracy as we know it) so yes, I guess that could be a possible outcome.

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4 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Maybe GRRM avoid the sequel at all costs because a sequel would give away the answers to some of the ambiguities he wants to leave us with

This certainly makes sense especially in terms of survivors, so if there is one it will have to be after all the books are out, although I guess season 8 will pretty much spoil that anyway, even if some characters, say, meet their deaths in different ways as in the books.

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I have a hard time seeing Sansa biting the dust in season 8 even if she wasn't supposed to make it in the 93 letter:

- The whole ‘will Sansa turn on her family’ thing we’ve suffered for two seasons now should be done and over with the death of Lillefinger IMO. Heck, she didn’t even seem that mad about the fact that Jon had bent the knee to Dany, and with the Army of the Dead roaming through the North, I very much doubt that she or the other lords will make much of a fuzz about it (or even Jon’s parentage if it’s revealed before/if the North is evaced).

- Sansa should not be particularly high on Cersei’s ‘people I want dead’ list after Jamie revealed that it was in fact the QoT who was behind Joff’s assassination, so I very much doubt that she’ll order a hit on her.

- That leaves the possibility of Sansa getting killed by the Army of the Dead, which is… a pretty unsatisfactory way to end her story IMO. I mean, Sansa is not a fighter, so she can’t really pull off a last stand to buy time for others to escape or something along those lines. She’ll just get swarmed and torn to shreds in seconds.

So, yeah, I think Sansa will still be alive at the end of the story, and she'll probably be ruling the North as Wardeness/Lady of WF.

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Maybe Sansa is the one to die accidentally. Some GoT characters have died of diseases, Maester Aemon and maybe one other of old age, but EVERYONE else is killed on purpose or in battle. She was meant to live until the end of the show but she will trip over her hem and falls the stairs. :o

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3 hours ago, Einheri said:

I have a hard time seeing Sansa biting the dust in season 8 even if she wasn't supposed to make it in the 93 letter:

- The whole ‘will Sansa turn on her family’ thing we’ve suffered for two seasons now should be done and over with the death of Lillefinger IMO. Heck, she didn’t even seem that mad about the fact that Jon had bent the knee to Dany, and with the Army of the Dead roaming through the North, I very much doubt that she or the other lords will make much of a fuzz about it (or even Jon’s parentage if it’s revealed before/if the North is evaced).

- Sansa should not be particularly high on Cersei’s ‘people I want dead’ list after Jamie revealed that it was in fact the QoT who was behind Joff’s assassination, so I very much doubt that she’ll order a hit on her.

- That leaves the possibility of Sansa getting killed by the Army of the Dead, which is… a pretty unsatisfactory way to end her story IMO. I mean, Sansa is not a fighter, so she can’t really pull off a last stand to buy time for others to escape or something along those lines. She’ll just get swarmed and torn to shreds in seconds.

So, yeah, I think Sansa will still be alive at the end of the story, and she'll probably be ruling the North as Wardeness/Lady of WF.

This. At this point its hard to see how she would die unless the amry of the dead breaches winterfell.

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16 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Maybe GRRM avoid the sequel at all costs because a sequel would give away the answers to some of the ambiguities he wants to leave us with

Yeah, I've heard that basic theory, that a direct sequel is not being done cuz GRRM wants that territory reserved for himself.

Personally, though, I'll be surprised if he ever finishes A Dream of Spring (at least without a co-author), so as the years go by I think he'll yield and we will get a direct sequel.  Like I said, too much money to be made for it to not happen.  GRRM doesn't even have to do any work, HBO can just write him a check and that will be that, I think.

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11 hours ago, Morgana Lannister said:

You may well be right.  I would love a spin off I have to say.  Arya and Tyrion I am pretty sure they will survive.  I always thought Jon, Dany and Tyrion would be the three heads of the dragon too and I certainly think there will be major political reforms (although not a democracy as we know it) so yes, I guess that could be a possible outcome.

Ever since I first read A Dance with Dragons (about 6 years ago) I've been convinced the story will end with a tri-archy in power.  Why ELSE would GRRM spend time talking about that form of gov't??

The only question in my mind is "Who will the three tri-archs BE?"   I've thought Dany and Tyrion will be two of them for a long time and now it looks pretty clear to me that Jon will be the third.

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12 hours ago, Cron said:

Ever since I first read A Dance with Dragons (about 6 years ago) I've been convinced the story will end with a tri-archy in power.  Why ELSE would GRRM spend time talking about that form of gov't??

The only question in my mind is "Who will the three tri-archs BE?"   I've thought Dany and Tyrion will be two of them for a long time and now it looks pretty clear to me that Jon will be the third.

If they all survive it does seem to be going that way.  It also tallies with the kind of stuff Tyrion was suggesting.  However, it does seem very probable that Dany is pregnant so that could put a spin on this...  Even so, though, I reckon even if Dany's child rules say in the future it will be with a very powerful Council that can really limit the absolute authority of the monarch... just a guess though.

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4 hours ago, Morgana Lannister said:

If they all survive it does seem to be going that way.  It also tallies with the kind of stuff Tyrion was suggesting.  However, it does seem very probable that Dany is pregnant so that could put a spin on this...  Even so, though, I reckon even if Dany's child rules say in the future it will be with a very powerful Council that can really limit the absolute authority of the monarch... just a guess though.

I like the idea of Dany wrestling with the question of what if her child would make for a bad King or Queen at the end and recognizing that her and Jon had very unique experiences that made them so noble minded. So they institute the first parliament and maybe even make the hand accountable to parliament. 

The big question though is what do they do if the dragons survive. If they do, then perhaps the role of the monarchy in the new system is to in part defend the realm with the dragons but your left with the uneasy question of is that really sustainable. What if we get a bad dragon rider? That question is never resolved and it's one of the ambiguities we are left with.

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1 hour ago, jcmontea said:

I like the idea of Dany wrestling with the question of what if her child would make for a bad King or Queen at the end and recognizing that her and Jon had very unique experiences that made them so noble minded. So they institute the first parliament and maybe even make the hand accountable to parliament. 

The big question though is what do they do if the dragons survive. If they do, then perhaps the role of the monarchy in the new system is to in part defend the realm with the dragons but your left with the uneasy question of is that really sustainable. What if we get a bad dragon rider? That question is never resolved and it's one of the ambiguities we are left with.

Well, yes, the dragons would give immense power to the riders so that is a hard one.  I am sure although there will be some sort of political reform not everything will be set in stone so the ending surely will be left slightly open I guess.

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On 9/10/2017 at 6:27 AM, Morgana Lannister said:

If they all survive it does seem to be going that way.  It also tallies with the kind of stuff Tyrion was suggesting.  However, it does seem very probable that Dany is pregnant so that could put a spin on this...  Even so, though, I reckon even if Dany's child rules say in the future it will be with a very powerful Council that can really limit the absolute authority of the monarch... just a guess though.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Dany is pregnant yet.

I think there will have to be some bizarre circumstances so that it can be said that Mirri Maz Duur's prophecy "came true."

She DID NOT simply tell Dany "You will never be pregnant again."

Oh no.  She said some really bizarre things, and I predict that when it's all said and done, we will look back on her words and go "Ohhhh, so THAT'S what that meant," and it will all make sense, and her words will have come true, in a sense. (Since this is how prophecy often works in fiction. It almost NEVER means what it seems to mean on its face, but when you look back later, you go "Ohhhhh...")

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12 minutes ago, Cron said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think Dany is pregnant yet.

I think there will have to be some bizarre circumstances so that it can be said that Mirri Maz Duur's prophecy "came true."

She DID NOT simply tell Dany "You will never be pregnant again."

Oh no.  She said some really bizarre things, and I predict that when it's all said and done, we will look back on her words and go "Ohhhh, so THAT'S what that meant," and it will all make sense, and her words will have come true, in a sense. (Since this is how prophecy often works in fiction. It almost NEVER means what it seems to mean on its face, but when you look back later, you go "Ohhhhh...")

Jon painted her as a crazy woman. They might just go that route in the hahaha... can't believe you believed that crazy old woman vein.

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40 minutes ago, Cron said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think Dany is pregnant yet.

I think there will have to be some bizarre circumstances so that it can be said that Mirri Maz Duur's prophecy "came true."

She DID NOT simply tell Dany "You will never be pregnant again."

Oh no.  She said some really bizarre things, and I predict that when it's all said and done, we will look back on her words and go "Ohhhh, so THAT'S what that meant," and it will all make sense, and her words will have come true, in a sense. (Since this is how prophecy often works in fiction. It almost NEVER means what it seems to mean on its face, but when you look back later, you go "Ohhhhh...")

"When the sun rises in the west, and sets in the east. When the seas go dry and the mountains blow in the wind like leaves"
(And the bit that was cut from the show: "When your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child then he will return, and not before.")
It's worth noting that this wasn't related to the question "When/can I have children again", but was a response to Dany asking "When will I have Khal Drogo back as he once was?" aka. when would the man she loves return to her. Not being able to have children isn't the actual curse, it's an element of what needs to be achieved to break it, so that she will find love again.

Even if the show alters the curse (which they did by removing half of what Miri Maaz Duur said), and makes Dany's inability to have children the focal point of it, the requirements have already been fulfilled:
"The sun rising in the west and setting in the east" could be a metaphor for Dany's time in Essos ending, and her time in Westeros beginning.
The pyramids of Mereen collapsing, or the Wall coming crashing down can be interpreted as "mountains blowing in the wind like leaves", and the "sea went dry" when Dany took all the Dothraki with her when she left the Dothraki Sea.
Now her womb has quickened and she will bear a living child, and now she will find love again, except it won't be Khal Drogo, but Jon.

 

Edited by MinscS2

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