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Would Walder Frey have betrayed Robb if he didn't forget his vow?


HouseFrancis93

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Just a quick curiosity i found while re-reading the red wedding. Was Lord Walder Frey's betrayal of Robb actually in reaction to the slight Robb gave him? (we do know Lord Frey is angry, arrogant, petty, and spiteful) or was that just pretense (though we know he cares nothing for reputation in that sense, only in the sense he's considered a great man). So what do you guys  n gals think? Was Robbs marriage to another really why Lord Frey betrayed him in the most profoundly disgusting way, or was it just Lord Frey seizing opportunity? After all it does seem if the Freys made amends they could have beaten the Lannisters 

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I would say the Red Wedding was more about self preservation for the Freys than pure revenge or opportunism. 

The Freys took a huge risk by declaring for Robb and beyond the loss of their anticipated royal status, they were left extremely vulnerable if Robb's campaign failed. Recall that Walder was infamous for his flexible allegiances, but was convinced to make a very clear and public declaration. And judging by the amount of concessions he extracted in negotiating with Cat, Walder considered his ambiguous allegiance a valuable position.

In one masterflub, Robb not only voided all the agreements he'd made with Walder, but demonstrated his unworthiness of kingship and his complete political daftness. Even in the best case of Lannister defeat, Walder no longer had a reason to believe that Robb would be a better king. How could Walder let his people act as the first defense between a hostile southern kingdom and it's newly independent northern half if King Robb were unwilling to fulfill his lordly obligations?

Although the Red Wedding is considered in-universe an atrocity by most people, it was an extremely rational move on the part of the Freys. They were left out in the cold. They couldn't trust Robb and faced Lannister wrath if they didn't make some very big overtures to Tywin. 

 

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cgrav that is a very good point. it is curious to me. I just feel an kind of ominous, yet predictable, makes sense, but at the same time? I know Lord Frey cares nothing of honor or tradition, but i also recall the fact that i mean robb brought 3500 men, I know he had the boltons, but if the rest of the north rose up around robb's death as a rally call (wink wink what's coming?) Frey would be fk'd he had to know tywin only wants him to kill robb, and he gets a fancy pardon and a final thats all ya get good luck getting any lions for soldiers

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Robb was about to take both his men and their men up to the North for the purpose of dislodging ~600 Ironborn from three miserable little castles, and leave the Riverlands borderline defenseless and easy pickings for Mace's army. I'm not sure why they wouldn't turn on him at that point. I don't think the marriage pact had much to do with it- they were promised a Lord Paramount marriage (Robb hadn't been declared king by his bannermen at that point), and they got one to a man who's very likely richer than Robb and commands a region just as populous and powerful as Robb's own.

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Yup - cgrav and Nihlus have the right of it.

Walder was saving his House from the fate of of House Reyne.

In a few generations bards will be singing about the "Noble Lord Frey" who "cast away his honour" to "save his House".  The song will be called a "A Lord's gotta do what a Lord's gotta do".

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This is a good thread...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/98020-rubyford-what-rooses-intention/

Tywin was courting Walder Frey very early on, shortly after he took Harrenhal...

Quote

The captives ate at their own table in the Hall of a Hundred Hearths, and could often be seen about the grounds. Four brothers took their exercise together every day, fighting with staves and wooden shields in the Flowstone Yard. Three of them were Freys of the Crossing, the fourth their bastard brother. They were only there a short time, though; one morning two other brothers arrived under a peace banner with a chest of gold, and ransomed them from the knights who'd captured them. The six Freys all left together. 

Arya VII, Clash

Tywin was offering different terms to different houses...

Quote

No one ransomed the northmen, though. 

Arya VII, Clash

Quote

His lordship waited until the table had been cleared before he raised the matter of a letter he had received from Lord Tywin Lannister, who held his elder son, Ser Wylis, taken captive on the Green Fork. "He offers him back to me without ransom, provided I withdraw my levies from His Grace and vow to fight no more."

"You will refuse him, of course," said Ser Rodrik.

"Have no fear on that count," the lord assured them. "King Robb has no more loyal servant than Wyman Manderly. I would be loath to see my son languish at Harrenhal any longer than he must, however. That is an ill place. Cursed, they say. Not that I am the sort to swallow such tales, but still, there it is. Look at what's befallen this Janos Slynt. Raised up to Lord of Harrenhal by the queen, and cast down by her brother. Shipped off to the Wall, they say. I pray some equitable exchange of captives can be arranged before too very long. I know Wylis would not want to sit out the rest of the war. Gallant, that son of mine, and fierce as a mastiff."

Bran II, Clash

And keep in mind that Roose occupied the Ruby Ford when Tywin released the Freys at Harrenhal. That means the Freys delivering the ransom had to cross Roose's battle lines. And they had to have a safe conduct from Gregor, Amory, and Vargo, who were ravaging the lands around the God's Eye. Roose and Walder were talking with Tywin very early on. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I think Walder would have switched sides, regardless. Robb breaking his vow was the last nail in a coffin. So much had already gone wrong for him by this point that his odds of holding both the Riverlands and the North and maintaining independence were slim. A lot of it was a combination of bad luck and his own foolish choices - like sending Theon to his father for support. It was the one thing Cat advised Robb on that Eddard himself had cautioned about. Due to that blunder, the Ironmen took Moat Cailin - the strategic point of the North - as well as Deepwood Motte, and sacked Winterfell, supposedly murdering Robb's brother-heirs. All of that alone was terrible for moral and PR. Skilled strategist, he may have been, he looked weak and ineffective as a king and leader as time went on.

He also failed to explain fully the importance of why Edmure needed to hold Riverun and not budge, which ultimately had the domino effect of sending Tywin back towards King's Landing. 

Some of these things were tiny blunders and mistakes that made his position weaker. As soon as the Lannister position was reinforced by their defeat of Stannis and alliance with House Tyrell, there was no way that House Frey would ally their cause to Robb's. After that, he was on borrowed time while Tywin worked out how to put down the Northern uprising in one fell swoop. The Freys were looking after number one, as they always do.

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  • 1 month later...
On 10/10/2017 at 4:33 PM, Faera said:

I think Walder would have switched sides, regardless. Robb breaking his vow was the last nail in a coffin. So much had already gone wrong for him by this point that his odds of holding both the Riverlands and the North and maintaining independence were slim. A lot of it was a combination of bad luck and his own foolish choices - like sending Theon to his father for support. It was the one thing Cat advised Robb on that Eddard himself had cautioned about. Due to that blunder, the Ironmen took Moat Cailin - the strategic point of the North - as well as Deepwood Motte, and sacked Winterfell, supposedly murdering Robb's brother-heirs. All of that alone was terrible for moral and PR. Skilled strategist, he may have been, he looked weak and ineffective as a king and leader as time went on.

He also failed to explain fully the importance of why Edmure needed to hold Riverun and not budge, which ultimately had the domino effect of sending Tywin back towards King's Landing. 

Some of these things were tiny blunders and mistakes that made his position weaker. As soon as the Lannister position was reinforced by their defeat of Stannis and alliance with House Tyrell, there was no way that House Frey would ally their cause to Robb's. After that, he was on borrowed time while Tywin worked out how to put down the Northern uprising in one fell swoop. The Freys were looking after number one, as they always do.

So was Robb sleeping with Jeyne Westerling before or after the Battle of Blackwater? And what if Walder had insisted on a marriage before Robb crossed?

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I do believe the Westerling connection was either planned or approved by Tywin as a casus belli - another strand to his 'some battles are won with quills rather than swords' comment to Tyrion, which indicates the plan was long hatched before Robb and Jeyne jumped the broom. So given that degree of meddling, I imagine Walder would have turned his cloak anyway, though whether he would have gone quite so far is hard to tell.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 2017. 12. 02. at 11:46 PM, Angel Eyes said:

So was Robb sleeping with Jeyne Westerling before or after the Battle of Blackwater? And what if Walder had insisted on a marriage before Robb crossed?

It would have been very unlike Walder Frey. Robb was to marry a Frey girl after the war - meaning after he had won the war. As soon as he was losing the war, the Frey alliance was to be over, one way or another. Robb was an opportunity to perhaps marry a Frey girl into a royal family (Walder Frey had recently had some difficulty marrying off his female descendants), but the Freys always choose the winning side. Winning the war was an implicit condition in the marriage pact - Robb was doomed if he lost, and the pact would automatically be made irrelevant. Of course, in this case, it wasn't enough for the Freys to arrive "late" at the battle. This time Walder took a rather greater risk (gambling for a greater prize, too), therefore switching sides had to be more spectacular as well. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Walder Frey is probably one of the characters in the series who has literally no honor and whose terms and promises are almost worthless. He likes to win and survive, subsequently gaining rewards from the Lannisters, for example one of the Freys gains control of Riverrun after hosting the Red Wedding. Walder Frey intentionality stays out of conflict until the point where he can finally completely sway the results. With Robb breaking his vow, it just made Walder Frey all the more happy to turn against him. 

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