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Tyrion1991

(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

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21 hours ago, jcmontea said:

As crazy as that is, that is the only reasonable watsonian assumption if we assume Varys is not being disloyal. 

Well, we have the option of saying that Varys's inability to do his job in Season 7 is not the result of having lost control over some little kids. We can say that it is the result of some poor story telling on the part of the show runners. That's what I took you to mean when you said--

On 9/27/2017 at 5:50 PM, jcmontea said:

Yup. If they wanted to make Tyrion and Varys look like the two most useless advisors they succeded. 

...

I'll note again that this doesn't have to mean that GoT is schlock or that Season 7 is worthless. It just means that there are some major problems with the writing. Major problems, not just trivial details of interest only to nit pickers. Trying to explain the sudden apparent incompetence of two major game players by saying that one is a traitor and the other lost some birds doesn't work. There are a good many reasons for this inadequacy. One is that Dany and her whole team have inexplicably turned incompetent-- 

On 9/25/2017 at 3:07 PM, darmody said:

Do you need to know anything about war to hear someone whisper in your ear, "Euron has dedicated 99% of his population to the construction of a new fleet"--...then say, "Hey, Dany, better watch out for fresh armadas. Maybe we better tread carefully with this circumnavigation plan."

Instead, Varys knows nothing useful about anything anywhere, ever. What is the point of him? To tell her when she's getting too burn-y? 

The show made Varys useless to extend Cersei's already unbelievable reign. The man who built the spy network that according to you gained a lady under house arrest the throne doesn't know when entire armies or navies come into existence and/or move across continents. Because he was out east for a bit, and out of practice?

As I said earlier, the case of the unknown fleet is a worse plot hole than darmondy indicates here. No friggin' body on Dragonstone brings up the matter at all. We have these war councils where no one gives any thought to what their enemies might be doing. In particular,  the council that includes Yara, the head snake, and Olenna stands out as an incredible case of "Let's ignore the elephant in the room." 

Tryion doesn't seem able to think that a big honkin' unfriendly fleet out there might cause some problems. Varys doesn't know anything at all about its locations or its movements, and he doesn't seem to have made any effort to acquire this info. And Lady Olenna--Hello, oh clever, insightful game player. You do know that your kingdom has a west coast, don't you? You have some small knowledge of Westerosi history and the part the Iron Islands have had in it, right? So, monster pirate fleet coming down the west coast--why can't you see that this might be trouble for you and your people? 

Perhaps the most unbelievable performance, however, is that of Yara. She listens to all of the business about how this Targ fleet will go here and that Targ fleet will go there, and she never once mentions the name "Euron." Later, on her ship, she is getting cozy with Ellaria:

ELLARIA: So, you're going to be Queen of the Iron Islands.

YARA: Once I kill my uncle.

Oh yeah, right. You don't like the guy much. You must know that he's really pissed off at you, that he's a mean pirate son of a bitch, and he has a big fleet. You don't even know where he is. Did it ever occur to you that he might know where you are? Not too hard to figure out which one of you is more likely to get killed, is it? 

This is the woman who has had such a great career as a warrior? This is the daughter that Balon put in charge of his attack on the North? Sheesh. 

Once again, we have a fine example of characters acting totally out of character. 

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On 9/29/2017 at 4:00 PM, darmody said:

Not to mention Bran, the limits of whose powers are completely unknown. Aside from the fact that he may be the Night King, he can alter the past and probably could warg into zombies and zombie-dragons if he tried hard enough. The show have Our Heroes ridiculous potential power with that character. Unless he disappears from the story for no reason again. 

 

The show has kept the power of the dead vague enough for any guess as to how they'd do in a full-scale invasion of the South to be as good as the next. If you go by the wight Jon fought at Castle Black or the Battle of Hardhome, victory over them seems nigh-impossible. If you go by the Frozen Lake Battle, six guys--who were exposed to subzero temperatures for one to three days; or maybe a week, who knows?--can hold off 100,000 for a while at least. 

In the latter situation they had dragonglass, Valyrian steel, and fire. Those are the fudge factors, along with dragons, zombie-dragons, and the Night King's unrevealed abilities. How well will Our Heroes be able to use magical devices, and what counter-magic will the Night King employ? We don't know. If it were just man-to-undead man without magic (or without further magic, taking zombies and White Walkers for granted), the living would be toast. Because the Army of the Dead would pick up new recruits in every battle. If the Night King has no new tricks up his sleeve, the Army of the Dead should be toast. Because the living can outfit entire armies with dragonglass, and the Valyrian Steel Squad--Jon, Brienne, Sam, Arya (though I assume she'll scamper off to assassinate people on her own after reuniting with Jon), Jaime(?), and maybe others, I forget--will kill Walkers to disable as many undead as needed. Think about what a neat number-fudging tool that is. As many or as few wights can be taken out of consideration as they desire, virtually whenever they desire. 

Also, Dany has two more dragons and the zombie dragon should be take-downable. I'm thinking dragonglass scorpion bolts and/or dragonglass/Valyrian steel claw/tooth accessories for the other dragons. Easy-peasy. No doubt we'll see a regular dragon and the zombie dragon in a dogfight at some point. 

 

But of course the Army of the Dead will be as strong as it needs to be to fill requisite episode space and dramatic needs. The audience won't be allowed to think the threat is manageable, just like they weren't allowed to believe Cersei should have been toast in episode one this season. 

This final para is essentially saying what I think needs to be done here. Forget the math. All we know is that Dany has the strongest army, although somehow the army of the dead is still an apocalyptic threat. And the fact that if the NK doesn't have any new tricks then he should be screwed is exactly what I think. At Hardhome they didn't have the needed weapons. But the most recent showing of the AotD have not been impressive. 

Given how massive this event is supposed to be (the stuff of prophecy etc.) It would be a let down for me if it was contained to the North in the end. I would like impossible odds (like seas freezing, both Essos and Westeros in threat, NK raising skeletons and corpses from thousands of years ago and so on). I mean the last time this happened the stories are found everywhere and formed the basis of prophecies and religions. It feels like it ought to be something enormous. But I can expect a mostly Northern affair where even Winterfell isn't destroyed and there are just some badass or scary cinematic moments.

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On 9/29/2017 at 5:24 PM, Megorova said:

Night's King and White Walkers know, that the Heroes know, that by killing White Walker, they can eliminate all wights, that were created by that Walker. Thus NK will take counter measures.

He will keep White Walkers as far away from front lines. So between Heroes and White Walkers will be entire army of wights, all 100,000 of them. And several dozens of giants. And ice-breathing Undead dragon. It's nearly impossible to get thru such tought defence line.

Also, for some reason, I think that it's impossible to eliminate Undead giant with single stab of dragonglass, or single swing of Valyrian steal. No? :huh:

I don't know. That remains to be seen. So far Dragonglass seems to be effective due to magic not due to it being a lethal weapon. Is Undead Viserion an ice-breather? All I saw was blue fire. That could also be very hot fire. I think we need to wait to know whether a Wight-Dragon is an Ice dragon.

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45 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

This final para is essentially saying what I think needs to be done here. Forget the math. All we know is that Dany has the strongest army, although somehow the army of the dead is still an apocalyptic threat. And the fact that if the NK doesn't have any new tricks then he should be screwed is exactly what I think. At Hardhome they didn't have the needed weapons. But the most recent showing of the AotD have not been impressive. 

Given how massive this event is supposed to be (the stuff of prophecy etc.) It would be a let down for me if it was contained to the North in the end. I would like impossible odds (like seas freezing, both Essos and Westeros in threat, NK raising skeletons and corpses from thousands of years ago and so on). I mean the last time this happened the stories are found everywhere and formed the basis of prophecies and religions. It feels like it ought to be something enormous. But I can expect a mostly Northern affair where even Winterfell isn't destroyed and there are just some badass or scary cinematic moments.

I think the living will beat the dead up north but it will be a phyric victory as the NK gets away on Viserion or was never even at the battle. He makes it south and raises his army of millions. 

Both George in his original outline and a few of the directors have talked about how every story will end up converging and ending in one big climax. 

Can’t see how they pass up on having both the NK make it to KL - especially after last episode where they reminded us of how many people live in KL, had winter reach KL, and Dany and Bran’s visions - and Cersei have her comeuppance of having to deal with the NK. 

Would make sense for the battle at Winterfell to be in episode 3 and then the final climatic battle around KL to be in episode 5.

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In the show : I'm not really feeling the war to come. It seems like it was building to something, but (obviously) got scaled down near the end. 

The AOTD is not really a world threat. They are barely a threat for westeros. If a handful of men can hold their own against the full army, I'm not sure how the NK expects to take on all of the south. This is a failure of a campaign if I ever saw one. 

In the books , it has to be a world wide threat. How else could the entire east also have a similar story?this battle will involve all and possibly be fought on multiple fronts. I personally would have it happen all at once with each continent having their own resistance that may or may not converge. However, it could also work with one main force. I just don't think that would be as interesting as seeing two independent armies come together to argue about how best for defeat the enemy and where to fight. 

I think Martin may go that route. It will be Hella fun to see the conflicting personalities and traditions while all are trying to work together for survival. 

Quote

Would make sense for the battle at Winterfell to be in episode 3 and then the final climatic battle around KL to be in episode 5.

Personally speaking, I'm kinda tired of KL. After so much time there, the only place that matters is the Red Keep. And since Cersei is the only one of concern there, they can have it. 

I prefer KL to be steamrolled and for the Reach to be the last bastion. Anywhere else really. I'm just not interested in KL anymore. I rather have Lannisport even. Or maybe the Vale 

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48 minutes ago, MrJay said:

Personally speaking, I'm kinda tired of KL. After so much time there, the only place that matters is the Red Keep. And since Cersei is the only one of concern there, they can have it. 

I prefer KL to be steamrolled and for the Reach to be the last bastion. Anywhere else really. I'm just not interested in KL anymore. I rather have Lannisport even. Or maybe the Vale 

Interesting.

feels unlikely to me though. KL just has such a large presence in the story. It is literally the first place on the map every episode. If this story has been about 3 things: 1.) what Jon is up to North of the Wall 2.) what dany is doing and 3.) all the machinations for the throne centered on KL, would just make sense for the climax of the story to be the convergence of all three both thematically but also literally with the climax occuring in KL. 

Also, it solves the question of how to make the NK seem like more of a threat. Him riding above KL on Viserion raising the millions and millions of unburned bodies in the city and its vicinity with the million living inabitants of KL now under threat. 

I like your idea of having the threat be everywhere. Would be cool if they showed something like that. Not sure they would. But now that the NK can fly, he should be able to just go to different places raising up dead people. Why not have him fly to every corner of the seven kingdoms and even to the free cities creating armies of the dead everywhere. 

If he is smart that is what he does. Send the current AOTD to Winterfell but not go with them and just go raise AOTD everywhere else. 

They don’t have to worry about him being too overpowered either because they introduced the cheat code of if you kill the NK the army goes away. 

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2 hours ago, MrJay said:

The AOTD is not really a world threat. They are barely a threat for westeros. If a handful of men can hold their own against the full army, I'm not sure how the NK expects to take on all of the south. This is a failure of a campaign if I ever saw one. 

When have we seen a handful of men holding their own against the full army? I hope you're not refering to 7x06, because that was not the full army they held their own against, and they most certainly did not do it all at once. The undead came sporadically, a few at a time (you can even see how almost the entire army surrounding them stands still on the edge of the lake while only a few move towards the middle), and Jon & Co was still about to be swamped.

We saw the whole (or at least most of it) army move trough the gap in the wall in 7x07. Do you really think that a handful of men could hold their own against that, even if they like in 7x06 are in a position where they have their backs protected?

The AotD is a massive threat, because the human army that oppose them needs to be big enough to defeat the entirety of the AotD (or at least all the WW*s and the NK) all at once. Every victory makes the AotD bigger, so if Jon and Dany's army wasn't already in a position to (maybe) stop them, the AotD could easily go from city to city/castle to castle in the north, grow, then go south and do the same in the riverlands, then the westerlands, etc. etc, becoming bigger and bigger, and by the time they reached KL or Dorne, it wouldn't be 100.000 strong, but over a million strong, and there's nothing that would be able to stop that.

Unlike a regular (human) army, it can't be whittled down over the course of it's campaign; it will either continue to grow indefinitely (or until all of Westeros is in ruins), or get destroyed entirely all in one go. It also doesn't care about things like logistics, troop morale, food, etc. that regular armies do. 

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18 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

When have we seen a handful of men holding their own against the full army? I hope you're not refering to 7x06, because that was not the full army they held their own against, and they most certainly did not do it all at once. The undead came sporadically, a few at a time (you can even see how almost the entire army surrounding them stands still on the edge of the lake while only a few move towards the middle), and Jon & Co was still about to be swamped.

We saw the whole (or at least most of it) army move trough the gap in the wall in 7x07. Do you really think that a handful of men could hold their own against that, even if they like in 7x06 are in a position where they have their backs protected?

The AotD is a massive threat, because the human army that oppose them needs to be big enough to defeat the entirety of the AotD (or at least all the WW*s and the NK) all at once. Every victory makes the AotD bigger, so if Jon and Dany's army wasn't already in a position to (maybe) stop them, the AotD could easily go from city to city/castle to castle in the north, grow, then go south and do the same in the riverlands, then the westerlands, etc. etc, becoming bigger and bigger, and by the time they reached KL or Dorne, it wouldn't be 100.000 strong, but over a million strong, and there's nothing that would be able to stop that.

Unlike a regular (human) army, it can't be whittled down over the course of it's campaign; it will either continue to grow indefinitely (or until all of Westeros is in ruins), or get destroyed entirely all in one go. It also doesn't care about things like logistics, troop morale, food, etc. that regular armies do. 

I'm still underwhelmed by the AoTD unless there are some other clever tricks up the NK's sleeve. The living have numerical parity with them. Killing a walker can take many down at once. The dragons can burn Wights. Humans can use Dragonglass weapons. I'm not sure on Daenerys' Dothraki numbers of course, but if she fulfils the Stallion that Mounts the World prophecy (about a Khal of Khals who will unite the Dothraki), which goes:

“As swift as the wind he rides, and behind him his khalasar covers the earth, men without number, with arakhs shining in their hands like blades of razor glass. Fierce as a storm this prince shall be. His enemies will tremble before him, and their wives will weep tears of blood and rend their flesh in grief. The bells in his hair will sing his coming, and the milk men in the stone tents will fear his name…the prince is riding, and he shall be the stallion who mounts the world.” 

I wonder if "razor glass"=dragonglass. If so, then I still don't find it very impressive. The NK needs massive numbers compared to humans. Given their recent showings, the AoTD have an advantage only with overwhelming numbers against properly armed opposition.

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25 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

When have we seen a handful of men holding their own against the full army? I hope you're not refering to 7x06, because that was not the full army they held their own against, and they most certainly did not do it all at once. The undead came sporadically, a few at a time (you can even see how almost the entire army surrounding them stands still on the edge of the lake while only a few move towards the middle), and Jon & Co was still about to be swamped.

We saw the whole (or at least most of it) army move trough the gap in the wall in 7x07. Do you really think that a handful of men could hold their own against that, even if they like in 7x06 are in a position where they have their backs protected?

The AotD is a massive threat, because the human army that oppose them needs to be big enough to defeat the entirety of the AotD (or at least all the WW*s and the NK) all at once. Every victory makes the AotD bigger, so if Jon and Dany's army wasn't already in a position to (maybe) stop them, the AotD could easily go from city to city/castle to castle in the north, grow, then go south and do the same in the riverlands, then the westerlands, etc. etc, becoming bigger and bigger, and by the time they reached KL or Dorne, it wouldn't be 100.000 strong, but over a million strong, and there's nothing that would be able to stop that.

Unlike a regular (human) army, it can't be whittled down over the course of it's campaign; it will either continue to grow indefinitely (or until all of Westeros is in ruins), or get destroyed entirely all in one go. It also doesn't care about things like logistics, troop morale, food, etc. that regular armies do. 

Great point about logistics/ morale/ food. 

Even with Dany’s army heading to Winterfell, not sure the AOTD can’t get much bigger by the time they arrive there. I assume Last Hearth and Karhold will fall. If the AOTD takes out White Harbor next, they could be rolling up at Winterfell with 150-200k people. 

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5 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

I'm still underwhelmed by the AoTD unless there are some other clever tricks up the NK's sleeve. The living have numerical parity with them. Killing a walker can take many down at once. The dragons can burn Wights. Humans can use Dragonglass weapons. I'm not sure on Daenerys' Dothraki numbers of course, but if she fulfils the Stallion that Mounts the World prophecy (about a Khal of Khals who will unite the Dothraki), which goes:

“As swift as the wind he rides, and behind him his khalasar covers the earth, men without number, with arakhs shining in their hands like blades of razor glass. Fierce as a storm this prince shall be. His enemies will tremble before him, and their wives will weep tears of blood and rend their flesh in grief. The bells in his hair will sing his coming, and the milk men in the stone tents will fear his name…the prince is riding, and he shall be the stallion who mounts the world.” 

I wonder if "razor glass"=dragonglass. If so, then I still don't find it very impressive. The NK needs massive numbers compared to humans. Given their recent showings, the AoTD have an advantage only with overwhelming numbers against properly armed opposition.

I hope you are right and the living beat the army of the dead in the north. 

Would be interesting to see both a victory thst does not depend on a last minute save and also the implications of a phyric victory. The discussions when they realize the NK is still alive and do they head south to defend and protect KL or abandon the south and count on the neck as a defense would be interesting to see. 

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13 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

Humans can use Dragonglass weapons.

Yes, which was almost non-existant before season 7.
The only reason things aren't looking incredibly bleak for the humans right now is because the north (or rather Jon and a few of his allies) has made it their prime mission to find ways to defeat the AotD, unite as many regions as they can to fight the AotD, and to spread the word about them around Westeros.

Imagine a season 8 and a AotD bearing down on a unprepared human army which contains no dragon glass and only a handful of valyrian steel weapons (Longclaw, Oathkeeper, Heartsbane and Widow's Wail).
Drogon and Rhegal can burn thousands of wights, but in the meantime, the remainder of the human army can do almost nothing to the wights and WW's, and so they will be slaughtered = GG, roll credits.

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Just now, MinscS2 said:

Yes, which was almost non-existant before season 7.
The only reason things aren't looking incredibly bleak for the humans right now is because the north (or rather Jon and a few of his allies) has made it their prime mission to find ways to defeat the AotD and to spread the word about them.

Imagine a season 8 and a AotD bearing down on a unprepared human army which contains no dragon glass and only a handful of valyrian steel weapons (Longclaw, Oathkeeper, Heartsbane and Widow's Wail). Drogon and Rhegal can burn thousands of wights, but in the meantime, the remainder of the human army can do almost nothing to the wights and WW's, and so they will be slaughtered = GG, roll credits.

And Drogon and Rhaegal are super vulernable to the dead equivalent of dragon glass - ice spears. 

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2 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

And Drogon and Rhaegal are super vulernable to the dead equivalent of dragon glass - ice spears. 

Yeah that too, and I'd guess that when the fighting begins, Drogon and Rhaegal will be to busy fighting Viserion to help the humans fight the wights, so unless the human army can hold it's own (and win) against the wights and WW's, the battle is lost already.
Without dragonglass, without unity between the north, the vale and Dany's army, and possibly without Bran, the battle would be lost before it even started.

Good thing Jon spent the entirety of season 7 getting dragonglass for his army and securing a baby an alliance with Daenerys.


 

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17 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

I hope you are right and the living beat the army of the dead in the north. 

Would be interesting to see both a victory thst does not depend on a last minute save and also the implications of a phyric victory. The discussions when they realize the NK is still alive and do they head south to defend and protect KL or abandon the south and count on the neck as a defense would be interesting to see. 

I really don't hope that. I want the AotD to live up to its reputation as an unstoppable apocalyptic force that deserves so much build-up. I want it to be so that people in Volantis or Assahi have any reason to care about this threat.

 

19 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

Yes, which was almost non-existant before season 7.
The only reason things aren't looking incredibly bleak for the humans right now is because the north (or rather Jon and a few of his allies) has made it their prime mission to find ways to defeat the AotD, unite as many regions as they can to fight the AotD, and to spread the word about them around Westeros.

Imagine a season 8 and a AotD bearing down on a unprepared human army which contains no dragon glass and only a handful of valyrian steel weapons (Longclaw, Oathkeeper, Heartsbane and Widow's Wail).
Drogon and Rhegal can burn thousands of wights, but in the meantime, the remainder of the human army can do almost nothing to the wights and WW's, and so they will be slaughtered = GG, roll credits.

This is true. Jon and co., have certainly made fighting them possible (it seems) by all the R&D they have carried out over the past several seasons. Samwell Tarly will also be one of the great heroes of this conflict. My issue is that with these weapons in place, the AotD starts looking manageable. At least if they give humans numerical parity and the Dotraki are good fighters. The current wights also seem less impressive than early seasons.

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12 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

Yeah that too, and I'd guess that when the fighting begins, Drogon and Rhaegal will be to busy fighting Viserion to help the humans fight the wights, so unless the human army can hold it's own (and win) against the wights and WW's, the battle is lost already.
Without dragonglass, without unity between the north, the vale and Dany's army, and possibly without Bran, the battle would be lost before it even started.

Good thing Jon spent the entirety of season 7 getting dragonglass for his army and securing a baby an alliance with Daenerys.


 

I would give Jon an A... but he inadvertently gifted the NK Viserion. 

He gets an A for the baby making and the courage to try and prove MMD wrong. 

Are you still leaning towards the humans win in the North then swing south to deal with Cersei camp? I have been going back and forth between that idea and the everything climaxes in KL somehow idea. 

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1 minute ago, Hajk1984 said:

I really don't hope that. I want the AotD to live up to its reputation as an unstoppable apocalyptic force that deserves so much build-up. I want it to be so that people in Volantis or Assahi have any reason to care about this threat.

Lets imagine a scenario where there is a fight somewhere in Asia. 50% that Team A wins. 50% chance team B wins. If team A wins life goes on. If team B loses life is extinguished. 

Would you have any reason to care about that? If so, then why wouldn’t people in Volantis or Assahi have a reason to care about this threat? If not, then why wouldn’t you feel you have a reason to care when there is a 50% you are going to die? 

1 minute ago, Hajk1984 said:

This is true. Jon and co., have certainly made fighting them possible (it seems) by all the R&D they have carried out over the past several seasons. Samwell Tarly will also be one of the great heroes of this conflict. My issue is that with these weapons in place, the AotD starts looking manageable. At least if they give humans numerical parity and the Dotraki are good fighters. The current wights also seem less impressive than early seasons.

 

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45 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

I'm still underwhelmed by the AoTD unless there are some other clever tricks up the NK's sleeve. The living have numerical parity with them. Killing a walker can take many down at once. The dragons can burn Wights. Humans can use Dragonglass weapons. I'm not sure on Daenerys' Dothraki numbers of course, but if she fulfils the Stallion that Mounts the World prophecy (about a Khal of Khals who will unite the Dothraki), which goes:

“As swift as the wind he rides, and behind him his khalasar covers the earth, men without number, with arakhs shining in their hands like blades of razor glass. Fierce as a storm this prince shall be. His enemies will tremble before him, and their wives will weep tears of blood and rend their flesh in grief. The bells in his hair will sing his coming, and the milk men in the stone tents will fear his name…the prince is riding, and he shall be the stallion who mounts the world.” 

I wonder if "razor glass"=dragonglass. If so, then I still don't find it very impressive. The NK needs massive numbers compared to humans. Given their recent showings, the AoTD have an advantage only with overwhelming numbers against properly armed opposition.

Just FYI, but that quote is actually "like razor grass" not "like razor glass":)

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31 minutes ago, Prince of the North said:

Just FYI, but that quote is actually "like razor grass" not "like razor glass":)

Hmm... The typo that was promised:wacko:

 

47 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

Lets imagine a scenario where there is a fight somewhere in Asia. 50% that Team A wins. 50% chance team B wins. If team A wins life goes on. If team B loses life is extinguished. 

Would you have any reason to care about that? If so, then why wouldn’t people in Volantis or Assahi have a reason to care about this threat? If not, then why wouldn’t you feel you have a reason to care when there is a 50% you are going to die? 

 

I suppose my issue is that I'm not feeling that they have the 50% chance of winning. It feels like each Dothraki should easily be able to take down many wights. And with numerical parity, their standard tactic of overwhelming the living with too many numbers will not work. And then the living have advantage like flaming or dragonglass tipped arrows (and the Dothraki are great archers), Pitch, Wildfire etc. It seems like the dead will lose more wights than people they would manage to kill at even Northern locations. This would make their nos. go down in time, not up, even if the NK raised more soldiers.

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29 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

Hmm... The typo that was promised:wacko:

 

I suppose my issue is that I'm not feeling that they have the 50% chance of winning. It feels like each Dothraki should easily be able to take down many wights. And with numerical parity, their standard tactic of overwhelming the living with too many numbers will not work. And then the living have advantage like flaming or dragonglass tipped arrows (and the Dothraki are great archers), Pitch, Wildfire etc. It seems like the dead will lose more wights than people they would manage to kill at even Northern locations. This would make their nos. go down in time, not up, even if the NK raised more soldiers.

What do you think the odds are? Its not 0% since no battle is zero (from a watsonian perspective). How low would it have to be in the hypothetical example above for you not to feel threatened or interested in the outcome? 

 

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2 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

My issue is that with these weapons in place, the AotD starts looking manageable. 

Unless you are in the "I hope the NK wins"-camp (which won't happen), why is this an issue? The AotD needs to look somewhat manageable at this point if the living side is to win in season 8. At least people won't be able to claim a deus-ex-machina (well some probably still will) since they laid the foundation for how to defeat the AotD way before season 8. If someone made a discovery of how to defeat them when they where only 1 days march away from Winterfell I'd say "that's lame..."

2 hours ago, jcmontea said:

I would give Jon an A... but he inadvertently gifted the NK Viserion. 

In Jon's defense, he's not solely to blame for that; Tyrion is to blame as well because it was his stupid idea, Jorah is to blame because he was the first one to volunteer for the mission before Jon even said he'd go, Bran is to blame because his ravenmessage to Jon in E5 scared him (possibly needlessly) into action, and Dany is to blame for going north with her dragons. Someone at Eastwatch is also to blame for not giving the raiding-party horses in the first place! Plenty of blame to go around. :P

2 hours ago, jcmontea said:

He gets an A for the baby making and the courage to try and prove MMD wrong. 

He get's an A for licking Daenerys in the face during the act, showing her why they call him the White Wolf. ;)

2 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Are you still leaning towards the humans win in the North then swing south to deal with Cersei camp? I have been going back and forth between that idea and the everything climaxes in KL somehow idea. 

I'm not sure actually, I can see it go either way. My gut feeling is that the AotD is defeated in the north and that Cersei decides to do something really stupid when the Targaryens come for her traitorous ass afterwards, but I can also see a scenario where the NK takes of on Viserion after loosing his army in the north and then tries to do something in Kings Landing. It would be quite fitting in a way for Cersei to be the maker of heir own demise without either Jon or Dany playing a part in it.
 

1 hour ago, Hajk1984 said:

It feels like each Dothraki should easily be able to take down many wights. And with numerical parity, their standard tactic of overwhelming the living with too many numbers will not work. And then the living have advantage like flaming or dragonglass tipped arrows (and the Dothraki are great archers), Pitch, Wildfire etc. It seems like the dead will lose more wights than people they would manage to kill at even Northern locations. This would make their nos. go down in time, not up, even if the NK raised more soldiers.

The Dothraki (and Unsullied) don't have dragonglass weaponry though, and mundane weapons are (almost) useless against wights. At most they'd be able to tie up the AotD while the real wight-killers (Drogon, Rhaegal and whoever carries valyrian steel/dragonglass weaponry and fire) goes to work.

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