(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

[Jabul]

3 hours ago, MrJay said:

Holy hell these are some long quotes and replies. Was looking for my convo and I must say I give up. Whatever retorts anyone posted I agree 100%. No way I am gonna skim all this. 

You have a good point. Sorry about that. 

[Jabul]

Considering Mr. Jay's legitimate complaint, let me be brief here. 

What rational basis does Lord Tarly, or any of the Reach lords, have for fearing Cersei Lannister? Or, more precisely, do these men have some rational fear-based reason for backing her in the war? What can she do to them that would make them act as they do? It's true that she blew up the Great Sept of Baelor. So what? Is she going to teleport wildfire beneath their castles? She has an army, but not one that is all that strong compared to the forces opposing her. 

I'm not asking for any other reasons for backing Cersei (e.g. xenophobia). I'm not just asking for quotes from the show, indicating fear on the part of some person. Of course, you can give quotes, but you need to say why you think the quotes provide the basis for a good answer to my query. There are lots of plot holes in the story. Characters often say and do things that do not make sense; the statements and actions just move things in a direction the show runners want to go. 

 

[MrJay]

Speaking of the rock. A castle itself is very valuable. That's literally the secret tool that helped conquer Britain. 

A fortress is by no means useless and trying to play it off like it is was a mistake on the part of the show. It's a stronghold in enemy territory. That alone makes it worth more than gold. 

[Megorova]

22 hours ago, Jabul said:

What rational basis does Lord Tarly, or any of the Reach lords, have for fearing Cersei Lannister? Or, more precisely, do these men have some rational fear-based reason for backing her in the war? What can she do to them that would make them act as they do? It's true that she blew up the Great Sept of Baelor. So what? Is she going to teleport wildfire beneath their castles? She has an army, but not one that is all that strong compared to the forces opposing her. 

People didn't liked my theories, that Cersei hired various people thru her Birds Network, including assassins and enforcers. But it all makes sense, in context of everything that happened in the show in seasons 6&7. After Cersei's walk of shame, her enemies all over Westeros started dying from various reasons. Eventually people made a connection. Even though during those deaths, Cersei was under house arrest in Red Keep. No one couldn't proove anything against her. But subconsciously people knew that it was her doing. 

Thus when Randyll said in S7E2 "If my queen summons me, I answer the call. And I've heard what she does to those that defy her.", he was referring to those people, all over Westeros, that she killed thru her Network. By that moment in S7E2, after Cersei's walk of shame passed more than a year, so probably she killed lots of people, enough for others to get the message.

55 minutes ago, MrJay said:

Speaking of the rock. A castle itself is very valuable. That's literally the secret tool that helped conquer Britain. 

A fortress is by no means useless and trying to play it off like it is was a mistake on the part of the show. It's a stronghold in enemy territory. That alone makes it worth more than gold. 

S7E3:

"OLENNA: Your brother and his new queen thought you would be defending Casterly Rock.

JAIME: The truth is Casterly Rock isn't worth much anymore. Well, it is to me. My fond childhood memories won't keep Cersei on the throne.

OLENNA: So you'll just let them take it?

JAIME: For now. They won't be able to hold it. Euron Greyjoy's navy burned their ships, we emptied the larders before we left. Eventually they'll be forced to abandon their position and march all the way across Westeros."

They didn't abandoned Casterly Rock forever. Everything that could be taken from there, they took, and brought it to KL. What Unsullied can do, to what was left in the castle? Nothing! They won't stay there to break castle walls, or paint them with graffiti. Dany won't fly with her dragons to Westerlands, just to burn the castle to the ground. So after Lannisters will defeat their enemies, they can return to Casterly Rock, as if though departure never happened.

The fortress itself won't go anywhere. So there's no point in wasting their resources, and losing countless soldiers, in a battle for something that they can retrieve back later.

[MrJay]

I know what the show wants you to think. I am talking about reality. 

In reality, having a fortified position to retreat to affords you the luxury of sending out raids to get what you need. It allows your army to rest easy behind safe walls. It shows the people that you are here, you aren't leaving, and they are now under your rule. 

The show can say that casterly rock is a death trap and that it is worthless to anyone. That doesn't make it any less stupid. 

If the writers knew anything about castles then they would never have written that. There is a reason why castles reigned as the Supreme defense for hundreds of real world years. Of just for gun powder we would still be using them. 

What I am saying is it was a stupid scene and if this was in any way realistic the unsullied would turn CR into a base of operations and it would be a very valuable stronghold for Daeny. She would easily be able to take lannisport from there and have a resupply point for her forces deeper inland. 

The entire premise of the castle being useless rests on the unsullied nor being able to gather food from anywhere around the castle. Which they did on their way to KL otherwise they'd be on the verge of starvation. 

Quote

The fortress itself won't go anywhere. So there's no point in wasting their resources, and losing countless soldiers, in a battle for something that they can retrieve back later.

That's not how castles work. 

On reality, the unsullied would get food elsewhere. Scavenge, take from the populace, sack Lannisport. There is no one there to stop them. Then they would be able to easily hold the castle fron any outside attack. And while the lannister forces break themselves of the walls, Dothraki and dragons can easily slaughter them. 

Daeny would have her main foothold and split the 7k in two as well as control Lannisport and the port of KL from dragonstone. 

If this was written with even the slightest amount of military sense, Cersei would have lost by now in a dozen ways. 

You do not give up a castle. Not even an empty one. They are that important. 

But that's real life. The show can say that dragons are worthless and it would be so cause show logic. 

[jcmontea]

1 hour ago, MrJay said:

I know what the show wants you to think. I am talking about reality. 

In reality, having a fortified position to retreat to affords you the luxury of sending out raids to get what you need. It allows your army to rest easy behind safe walls. It shows the people that you are here, you aren't leaving, and they are now under your rule. 

The show can say that casterly rock is a death trap and that it is worthless to anyone. That doesn't make it any less stupid. 

If the writers knew anything about castles then they would never have written that. There is a reason why castles reigned as the Supreme defense for hundreds of real world years. Of just for gun powder we would still be using them. 

What I am saying is it was a stupid scene and if this was in any way realistic the unsullied would turn CR into a base of operations and it would be a very valuable stronghold for Daeny. She would easily be able to take lannisport from there and have a resupply point for her forces deeper inland. 

The entire premise of the castle being useless rests on the unsullied nor being able to gather food from anywhere around the castle. Which they did on their way to KL otherwise they'd be on the verge of starvation. 

That's not how castles work. 

On reality, the unsullied would get food elsewhere. Scavenge, take from the populace, sack Lannisport. There is no one there to stop them. Then they would be able to easily hold the castle fron any outside attack. And while the lannister forces break themselves of the walls, Dothraki and dragons can easily slaughter them. 

Daeny would have her main foothold and split the 7k in two as well as control Lannisport and the port of KL from dragonstone. 

If this was written with even the slightest amount of military sense, Cersei would have lost by now in a dozen ways. 

You do not give up a castle. Not even an empty one. They are that important. 

But that's real life. The show can say that dragons are worthless and it would be so cause show logic. 

So basically the options on the table were a.) defend casterly rock or b.) abandon it to capture highgarden and take its gold to fund an expansion of your army. 

If you go with b, maybe they can use it as a base of operation but you can now pay off the Iron bank and fund a bigger army. If you go with a.) maybe you can defend it but you lose lots of men defending it, risk the iron bank calling its loans and turning to Dany and you are still severally outbumbered against 100k dothraki and three dragons. 

Do you think Casterly Rock is of such strategic value its worth risking the Iron Bank changing sides? 

[Nowy Tends]

1 hour ago, MrJay said:

In reality, having a fortified position to retreat to affords you the luxury of sending out raids to get what you need. It allows your army to rest easy behind safe walls. It shows the people that you are here, you aren't leaving, and they are now under your rule. 

The show can say that casterly rock is a death trap and that it is worthless to anyone. That doesn't make it any less stupid. 

If the writers knew anything about castles then they would never have written that. There is a reason why castles reigned as the Supreme defense for hundreds of real world years.

This.

Either the writers don't know shit about medieval history, or they assume their audience knows nothing about it…

[Jabul]

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

People didn't liked my theories, that Cersei hired various people thru her Birds Network, including assassins and enforcers. But it all makes sense, in context of everything that happened in the show in seasons 6&7. After Cersei's walk of shame, her enemies all over Westeros started dying from various reasons...

Thus when Randyll said in S7E2 "If my queen summons me, I answer the call. And I've heard what she does to those that defy her.", he was referring to those people, all over Westeros, that she killed thru her Network. 

...

Who are these people that her network has killed? Can you give me a list?

When the lords of the Reach meet with Cersei, Olenna is alive, the Sand Snakes are alive, Tyrion Lannister is alive, Lord Baelish is alive, and Sansa Stark is alive. Cersei's father and her three children are dead. Jaime doesn't have a right hand. I don't think the lords would be that impressed with Cersei's accomplishments. I don't think they'd be afraid of her. 

3 hours ago, MrJay said:

...

The show can say that casterly rock is a death trap and that it is worthless to anyone. That doesn't make it any less stupid. 

...

Daeny would have her main foothold and split the 7k in two as well as control Lannisport and the port of KL from dragonstone. 

If this was written with even the slightest amount of military sense, Cersei would have lost by now in a dozen ways. 

You do not give up a castle. Not even an empty one. They are that important. 

But that's real life. The show can say that dragons are worthless and it would be so cause show logic. 

On the castle issue, I vote with MrJay. In fact, I'd go a bit further. I don't think the show is even true to its own logic. Do you remember the scene from "The Wolf and the Lion" (Season 1,5) where Robert talks to Cersei about the dangers of a Viserys-led invasion? He says the Westerosi leaders would hole up in their castles.

"Only a fool would meet the Dothraki in an open field. They leave us in our castles. They go from town to town, looting and burning, killing every man who can't hide behind a stone wall, stealing all our crops...How long do the people of the Seven Kingdoms stand behind their absentee King, their cowardly King hiding behind high walls? When do the people decide that Viserys Targaryen is the rightful monarch after all?"

The situation turns out to be considerably worse than the former king envisions. The Lannister-led forces give up a strong castle (actually more than one castle I'd say). They are no match for the Dothraki in the open field. And it's the noble defenders of King's Landing who steal crops. The Dothraki, to this point, haven't killed anyone but enemy soldiers. 

 

[jcmontea]

46 minutes ago, Jabul said:

Who are these people that her network has killed? Can you give me a list?

When the lords of the Reach meet with Cersei, Olenna is alive, the Sand Snakes are alive, Tyrion Lannister is alive, Lord Baelish is alive, and Sansa Stark is alive. Cersei's father and her three children are dead. Jaime doesn't have a right hand. I don't think the lords would be that impressed with Cersei's accomplishments. I don't think they'd be afraid of her. 

On the castle issue, I vote with MrJay. In fact, I'd go a bit further. I don't think the show is even true to its own logic. Do you remember the scene from "The Wolf and the Lion" (Season 1,5) where Robert talks to Cersei about the dangers of a Viserys-led invasion? He says the Westerosi leaders would hole up in their castles.

"Only a fool would meet the Dothraki in an open field. They leave us in our castles. They go from town to town, looting and burning, killing every man who can't hide behind a stone wall, stealing all our crops...How long do the people of the Seven Kingdoms stand behind their absentee King, their cowardly King hiding behind high walls? When do the people decide that Viserys Targaryen is the rightful monarch after all?"

The situation turns out to be considerably worse than the former king envisions. The Lannister-led forces give up a strong castle (actually more than one castle I'd say). They are no match for the Dothraki in the open field. And it's the noble defenders of King's Landing who steal crops. The Dothraki, to this point, haven't killed anyone but enemy soldiers. 

 

Did you just use a quote from Bobbie B where he argues that staying hidden in castles is not a viable long-term strategy to support them staying in their castles as a long term strategy? 

I think you did. Reading their exchange Robert says they don’t have a shot if the Dothraki cross over. Cersei argues that one they can’t sail and two they don’t have siege weapons. Robert says that won’t work. Staying in their castles won’t work. Its actually a pretty good piece of continuity, not discontinuity that Cersei does not depend on a staying in the castles approach and decides to go on offense and that only with the full backing of the iron bank to raise armies do they have a shot. 

Also interesting that Cersei says every child knows the dothraki can’t sail blowing up the other argument you used that the lords of the reach would not know about the Dothraki. 

Robert Baratheon: I don't know. But I do know this, if the Targaryen girl convinces her horse-lord husband to invade and the Dothraki horde crosses The Narrow Sea... We won't be able to stop them.
Cersei Baratheon: The Dothraki don't sail. Every child knows that. They don't have discipline. They don't have armor. They don't have siege weapons.
Robert Baratheon: It's a neat little trick you do, you move your lips and your father's voice comes out.
Cersei Baratheon: Is my father wrong?
Robert Baratheon: Let's say Viserys Targaryen lands with forty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. We hole up in our castles, a wise move. Only a fool would meet the Dothraki in an open field. They leave us in our castles. They go from town to town, looting and burning, killing every man who can't hide behind a stone wall, stealing all our crops and livestock, enslaving all our women and children. How long do the people of the Seven Kingdoms stand behind their absentee King, their cowardly King hiding behind high walls? When do the people decide that Viserys Targaryen is the rightful monarch after all.

[Megorova]

21 hours ago, Jabul said:

Who are these people that her network has killed? Can you give me a list?

Not all inhabitants of Planetos are active participants of ASOIAF, futhermore not all characters from ASOIAF are present in GOT. Thus those who Cersei killed are not someone who is known to viewers of GOT.

For example do you know names of guests, that were present on wedding of Olenna Tyrell and her husband? It wasn't shown on GOT whether Olenna had a husband at all. It wasn't shown on GOT whether they ever had a wedding. It wasn't shown whether there were guests on their wedding. We don't know names of those people. But nevertheless Olenna did married, there was a wedding, and there were guests <- because that's LOGICAL, based on the fact that she had children and grandchildren, and she was a noble lady from high house, and not a whore that mothered bastards.

Same in Cersei's case - we don't know names of people that she killed, we don't know who she killed, or how many of them, but it's OBVIOUS that she killed LOTS of people, because that's also LOGICAL. Based on what we saw in first episode of Season 6, how Mountain killed one of people that badmouthed Cersei. And in Episode 3, we saw how she ordered Qyburn to extend her Network to The North, The Reach, and Dorne, and to gather info about who are her enemies, and where they are. With this it was implied, that she dealt with all others, in the same manner as it was shown in first episode, the only difference is that away from KL, the killings were done by other people, and not the Mountain.

On 08.10.2017 at 10:14 PM, MrJay said:

On reality, the unsullied would get food elsewhere. Scavenge, take from the populace, sack Lannisport. There is no one there to stop them.

That's exactly the kind of thing that Dany forbade ironborn to do in Westeros, as one of conditions for alliance between Dany and Yara. So her own people won't do something like this. They won't robe or harm general population of 7K, they won't take away food from average people, they won't fight with people that are not soldiers.

Lannisters gathered all crops, and harvested everything from fields and farms. They took away all food and resources that were stored in granaryes. Thus local people in Reach had shortage of food. They won't, can't share with 8,000 of Unsullied. They can give them just a bit, that they can go back to their Queen. But they won't be able to provide with food all 8,000 of them, if they will stay at Casterly Rock for an extended period of time.

On 08.10.2017 at 10:14 PM, MrJay said:

That's not how castles work. 

Castles don't have their own crops, vegetables, chickens, cows, wine and other products. They are supplied with it from outer sources. They either buy everything on a market, or they have their own farmers, that live nearby and bring fresh produce to the castle, every morning, or once per week, or by some other set schedule.

Purpose of castle's innner gardens are to provide to visitors beauty and relaxation. There grow mainly flowers and fruit trees. Vegetable and crops gardens/farms are located outside of city/castle walls.

Castle like Red Keep don't have its own chickens, cows, sheeps, vegetables and other produce growing in its garden. Because they have a big food market within city walls. Farmers and peasants, that live around King's Landing, every day go on that market and bring there fresh produce to sell there.

But castle like Casterly Rock is different. There's no city around it. It's located on a high hill/mountain. So there's no farms nearby. There's no market beyond its walls. So they are occasionally visited by traveling merchants, farmers that live closest to the castle, or by their suppliers, or they send their own people to big markets, and bye in advance lots of products, that can last for extended periods of time. Products like grain, flour, honey, wine, beer, cider, fermented and pickled vegetables, sugared fruits, dried meat and fish, jerky, cheese, spices, etc.

Prior going away, Lannisters emptied pantries and storerooms, and took all food from the castle. They also robbed all farms and villages nearby. So there's no food for 8,000 people.

On 08.10.2017 at 10:14 PM, MrJay said:

The entire premise of the castle being useless rests on the unsullied nor being able to gather food from anywhere around the castle. Which they did on their way to KL otherwise they'd be on the verge of starvation. 

Though there's sea nearby, so they can at least catch fish. They were able to feed themselves with scarse resources that were available. And then either Dany has sent ships with food, or what is more likely - two of her dragons has brough food to Casterly Rock, and later more were brought by ships. When Dany went from Dragonstone, she took all three dragons with her. Though into battle she took only one of them. So it's possible that the other two she loaded with food, and sent them to Casterly Rock.

21 hours ago, Jabul said:

On the castle issue, I vote with MrJay. In fact, I'd go a bit further. I don't think the show is even true to its own logic. Do you remember the scene from "The Wolf and the Lion" (Season 1,5) where Robert talks to Cersei about the dangers of a Viserys-led invasion? He says the Westerosi leaders would hole up in their castles.

Cersei robbed and abandoned Casterly Rock. She hindered Dany's original plan, according to which Dany was going to siege KL with Westerosian troops. She took away from her aid of Dorne and The Reach. Thruout her stay at 7K, Dany planned to feed her 100,000+ army with food from The Reach, but Cersei took away even this from her. Now Cersei have behind KL's walls enough food, that will last for years. So if the city will be sieged by Dothraki and Unsullied, gues who will starve first? People in KL, or army outside of it?

Furthermore Dany can't use dragons to attack KL. Because Cersei took 1 million inhabitants of KL, imprisoned them in city walls, and put them as a living shield between her and the dragons. Dany won't/can't burn 1 million people just to get to Cersei.

[Jabul]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

... Thus those who Cersei killed are not someone who is known to viewers of GOT.

For example do you know names of guests, that were present on wedding of Olenna Tyrell and her husband? It wasn't shown on GOT whether Olenna had a husband at all. It wasn't shown on GOT whether they ever had a wedding. It wasn't shown whether there were guests on their wedding. We don't know names of those people. But nevertheless Olenna did married, there was a wedding, and there were guests <- because that's LOGICAL, based on the fact that she had children and grandchildren, and she was a noble lady from high house, and not a whore that mothered bastards.

Same in Cersei's case - we don't know names of people that she killed, we don't know who she killed, or how many of them, but it's OBVIOUS that she killed LOTS of people, because that's also LOGICAL. Based on what we saw in first episode of Season 6, how Mountain killed one of people that badmouthed Cersei...

The bolded part is not accurate. In Season 4 (episode 4 I think) Olenna reveals how she used her "feminine skills" to catch Luthor Tyrell. Luthor was originally supposed to wed Margaery's great aunt, but Margaery's grandmother managed to show him that marrying her was a better idea. Thus, it is quite clear from GoT that Olenna had a husband. We don't see the wedding. So what? That is unimportant back story, quite different from this supposed murder club you claim the Lannister queen has.

More importantly, it isn't legitimate to just assume something is true because you think it logical and then try to reason backward to show it must be the case. I could say that people in KL are badmouthing Cersei. It is only logical that Varys is in contact with some of them and has set up a secret network in the capital. After all, it is only logical that the Spider isn't as incompetent as he seems to have become in Season 7. It must be a secret network, because the guy who was killed by the Mountain was shooting off his mouth in public. Anyone in the Spider's network wouldn't be that dumb. I could come up with lots or other "logical" things that are "obvious." The problem is, I wouldn't have any evidence for these things, just as you don't have any evidence for your claims. 

The fact that Cersei ordered Qyburn to extend her network doesn't show that the network was extended in any effective way. Even if it has been extended, we have no reason to suppose that it contains unknown "other people" who are good at killing, People in the Reach, Dorne, etc. do not want to be killed. The authorities in these places don't want their people killed. Some creep in King's Landing would not have the power to fool all the authorities in far away locations. 

 

[Jabul]

On 10/6/2017 at 0:55 PM, Count Balerion said:

I wonder .. Some of the defense of show-logic seems to be saying "It happened, therefore it makes sense." (Probably that's an over-simplification.) But of course it only happened because it was written that way.

I could see the Dothraki, etc., coming in as an argument for supporting Cersei if the Septsplosion also came into it. Perhaps if Tarly and Olenna had a conversation where T says "Evil foreigners!" and O says "Blasphemous mass-murderer! Wiped out Tyrells!"

 

On 10/6/2017 at 3:26 PM, jcmontea said:

Thats actually not the argument. But thats a good strawman. 

 

Well, let’s just look at the bolded part of Count Balerion's post. That is not a strawman, at least if I understand it correctly. It’s a good point. Tarly (and the other lords too) is supposed to be a leader of his people and a man of honor. 

Important matters:

1. If you only talk to one side in a dispute, then you only get one side. This is a serious business; Tarly should do everything he can to gain accurate info. He cannot conceivably do that by talking exclusively to the pretender on the throne and her many-times-a-traitor brother/lover. 

2. Olenna is his liege. If he has any honor at all, it is absolutely his duty to let her explain herself. Maybe she can’t do a good job. That is not the point. He has a duty. He can’t just assume that she has nothing of worth to say. 

We could, and perhaps should, take “Tarly” out of points 1 & 2 and substitute “the lords of the Reach,” along with the appropriate pronouns and possessive adjectives. Technically, there is an understandable problem. The show runners aren’t going to have most of the lords say anything; those lords are extras. This doesn’t change the argument significantly. Somehow, the show has to demonstrate that honorable, reasonably decent leaders are honorable decent leaders. I see no possibility that this can be done and at the same time have said “leaders” decide to take on what has to look like a suicide mission, a suicide mission aimed at betraying and killing their liege and despoiling the Reach. 

Of course, one could take a different tack here. Maybe the writers are trying to say that the lords are morons and/or the vilest of villains. I don’t think so. I think we have some poor story telling here.

[Jabul]

23 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Did you just use a quote from Bobbie B where he argues that staying hidden in castles is not a viable long-term strategy to support them staying in their castles as a long term strategy? 

I think you did. Reading their exchange Robert says they don’t have a shot if the Dothraki cross over. Cersei argues that one they can’t sail and two they don’t have siege weapons. Robert says that won’t work. Staying in their castles won’t work. Its actually a pretty good piece of continuity, not discontinuity that Cersei does not depend on a staying in the castles approach and decides to go on offense and that only with the full backing of the iron bank to raise armies do they have a shot. 

...

 

No, obviously not.

I said that I vote with Mr. Jay on the castle issue. I don’t see how anyone can stretch and contort that into saying that I support the Lannister forces staying in their castles as a long term strategy. Such a contention gets even weirder when anyone reads what I’ve said in many posts in this thread. The war in the south makes no sense. If I were forced to say what Cersei’s best long term strategy is, I suppose I’d reply that she should talk to the show runners and tell them to keep providing plot holes and plot gifts. Maybe I could have made my point more clear by writing, “show logic,” but I don’t see why the quotation marks should be necessary. 

MrJay says that you do not give up a castle. I think this is a solid argument. Here is the part of his post that I quoted: 

"...The show can say that casterly rock is a death trap and that it is worthless to anyone. That doesn't make it any less stupid. ...

Daeny would have her main foothold and split the 7k in two as well as control Lannisport and the port of KL from dragonstone. 

If this was written with even the slightest amount of military sense, Cersei would have lost by now in a dozen ways. 

You do not give up a castle. Not even an empty one. They are that important. 

But that's real life. The show can say that dragons are worthless and it would be so cause show logic. "

The bolded part, if applied to the war in the south, is on point. Frequently in Season 7, the phrase “show logic” is an oxymoron. However, if we accept some things said in an earlier season, when the writing was better, it is the case that “Only a fool would meet the Dothraki in an open field.” Thus, Cersei’s act in sending her forces out into the open is the act of a fool. However, the king also doesn’t like the idea of staying in castles. What does he say is a viable long-term strategy? He doesn’t say. He does maintain that “We won’t be able to stop them.” Cersei gives reasons why the Dothraki are not such a threat. The king does not agree or disagree. He just says she sounds like her father. I don’t see how anyone can take Bob’s statements as a recommendation to either stay in castles or leave them. It sounds more like, “Hey, if the Dothraki get here, we’re probably doomed.”  

Also, Cersei does not go on the offensive with the full backing of the iron bank. She sends her forces most of the way across the continent and back before she gets said full backing. This enterprise, as I and others have said, is ridiculous. You have an army, including Reach forces, marching out in the open for the purpose of killing the liege  of the Reach and despoiling the land. You also have Olenna Tyrell, a character who has been portrayed as one of the sharpest ladies in Westeros, acting like one of the dumbest broads in the world. No reasonable military men (Jaime, Bron, whoever) would have assumed that they could just depend on unbelievable stupidity on the part of their enemies. The whole thing fits in with MrJay’s “would have lost by now in a dozen ways.”

[Count Balerion]

My second paragraph wasn't in "debate" mode at all; I was thinking again how to make the story make more sense. The first paragraph was a little hasty and sloppy, perhaps, although I did say "some" (therefore not all) defense of show-logic, and I did say "seems", etc.

[MrJay]

Decided to check in at home, so I can finally do a p[roper response. 

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

That's exactly the kind of thing that Dany forbade ironborn to do in Westeros, as one of conditions for alliance between Dany and Yara. So her own people won't do something like this. They won't robe or harm general population of 7K, they won't take away food from average people, they won't fight with people that are not soldiers.

Lannisters gathered all crops, and harvested everything from fields and farms. They took away all food and resources that were stored in granaryes. Thus local people in Reach had shortage of food. They won't, can't share with 8,000 of Unsullied. They can give them just a bit, that they can go back to their Queen. But they won't be able to provide with food all 8,000 of them, if they will stay at Casterly Rock for an extended period of time.

This tells me you aren't really seeing what I am saying. There are two discussions being had here and we aren't really disagreeing.

• Your point: It all makes sense in the show because the writers set it all up

I agree. Show logic is show logic. Why doesn't Daeny just swoop in and burn Cersei in the keep and end this season's arc in one episode? Because Leena Heady is a big star and they didn't want to end her arc so soon. Also, cause Daeny doesn't want to kill innocents...cause somehow burning Cersei demands she burns all of King's Landing...Cause show logic. That's it. At the end of the day if we wanted to explain everything by saying that the show set it up that way we could do that.

• My Point: Show logic aside, this is unrealistic at all even in fantasy.

So let's follow the show's explanation and assume that Casterly Rock and all surrounding lands were wiped clean of any and all livestock, water, and sustenance. You realize that you now have an entire region of serfs about to die from starvation right? Even if a little was left to get them by, they are all dead come winter. This opens up and entire new can of worms. For example...

These soldiers...They are not a trained Army imported from elsewhere.These are the men of the land with families. I don't foresee them essentially signing their own death warrants (and their families) because of Cersei's commands. No amount of whippings will do that. There have been bloody uprisings for less.

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

Purpose of castle's innner gardens are to provide to visitors beauty and relaxation. There grow mainly flowers and fruit trees. Vegetable and crops gardens/farms are located outside of city/castle walls.

My gripes has nothing to do with castle gardens. A Castle's main purpose is to be a fortress. Read this.

http://www.historyextra.com/article/bbc-history-magazine/castles-william-the-conqueror-norman-conquest-1066

Castles were a militaristic game changer. The equivalent of flanking maneuvers vs standing in line and shooting at one another. They were a huge deal and enabled William the Conqueror to make Britain into what we know it to be during the middle ages. So effective they were that they were still in use until cannons came to be a thing. I'm talking hundreds of real world years.

In a medieval era, you do not give up your castle. So hard it was to siege them that prior warning was sent out of a sige because it was better to have them surrender. They work the same way in the show. Many times a small force can hold out against a larger within those walls.

When Cersei gave up that castle, she did the following.

• Gave the Unsullied a forward operating base. A place where they can rest unbothered, treat their wounded,plan, and strike out from deeper within the realm. If any realism was upheld, Cersei would now have to worry about an attack from two areas instead of just one.
• The opinion of the people matter. He who holds the castle is seen as their lord. If the inhabitants of CR fled and left them, then what good were they? Contrary to popular belief, a lord has certain responsibilities to his serfs. Even Robert understood as much. One of the biggest responsibilities is to defend them from attackers. That's the foundation of the entire feudal system. I wanna say this again cause it's that important. Protection was the biggest reason for the establishment of the entire system of lords and peasants. When CR was abandoned (and all the food taken from the smallfolk) Cersei broke the contract between the ruler and their people. As I have said, revolts have been had for far less.

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

Though there's sea nearby, so they can at least catch fish. They were able to feed themselves with scarse resources that were available. And then either Dany has sent ships with food, or what is more likely - two of her dragons has brough food to Casterly Rock, and later more were brought by ships. When Dany went from Dragonstone, she took all three dragons with her. Though into battle she took only one of them. So it's possible that the other two she loaded with food, and sent them to Casterly Rock.

As I said before. This war is handicapped because of "show Logic." Even if CR defenders salted the earth, took every scrap of food from everyone around, and left nothing but starving masses and rock, the castle is still useful. From there the Unsullied can set out much wider and eventually locate food and resources. Then they can bring it all back to the fortress Cersei gifted them and stage from there. If anyone ever comes back to lay seige, well those people will die. In fact, it's almost too perfect for Daeny.

1. Get food and water. Unless Cersei eliminated all resources and wild game within a thousand miles, it will be done eventually. No rush either since the entirety of any opposition is busy with Highgarden. And guess what? All the people , seeing their lord and army leave them to the enemy and taking their food with them, will be more than happy to help once they see that these guys aren't so bad. All it takes is the Unsullied sharing whatever it is they manage to gather and that's it. Loyalty dies when you're starving and someone feeds you. They will be seen as saviors.
2. When the military comes back they will be met with a hostile and resentful people. They will lay siege to CR, and that siege will take a long time.
3. While they are in an open field, stationary, sitting there... Guess what Daeny can do? She wouldn't even need her dragon's at this point. Dothraki can handle them easily. Then when the fighting kicks off, all those Unsullied (still fresh since they have just been chilling behind a wall) can pour out and attack from the other side.

So when it is all said and done, Daeny would have eliminated her enemies army, and gained the will of the people. Exactly what she wanted. Cersei basically handed her Westeros on a silver platter at that point. Daeny would add another title to her name like , The Famine Ender, or something.

 

All because Cersei gave up a military fortress (Cause that is by far the #1 purpose of a castle) to her enemy. When I tell you castles are super important, I'm not talking about as gardens or homes for nobles. Nobles lived in them because that is the safest place to be, not cause it was luxurious. I don't know of any military commander that would willingly leave their enemy a super fortress so deep in their own territory. Who does that? Better question. Who does that and doesn't suffer for it? In what world does this strategy actually work? 

Leaving the castle was byfar the dumbest thing Cersei could have done, and if the show was realistic in any way it would have ended her rule.

 

TLDR

• Castles main purpose is to be a military fortress. 
• Feudalism is based on the people depending on their lord to defend them, not abandon them.
• The Unsullied can still go out and gather food and hunt since they now have a safe place to retreat to.
• Giving a starving populace food (from hunting and scavenging) is the fastest way to earn Karma.
• When the Lannister forces return, they will be in a nice open field in a known location for attack as they siege the castle they abandoned.
• Daeny not only strikes a huge blow to her enemy, she now has a castle and a high lordship to award to any defector, and the local population will be the best propaganda for her legitimacy as a true ruler.

Cersei basically stabbed herself in the lung and the show flipped it to look like she outwitted Daeny.

[jcmontea]

4 hours ago, Jabul said:

 

No, obviously not.

I said that I vote with Mr. Jay on the castle issue. I don’t see how anyone can stretch and contort that into saying that I support the Lannister forces staying in their castles as a long term strategy. Such a contention gets even weirder when anyone reads what I’ve said in many posts in this thread. The war in the south makes no sense. If I were forced to say what Cersei’s best long term strategy is, I suppose I’d reply that she should talk to the show runners and tell them to keep providing plot holes and plot gifts. Maybe I could have made my point more clear by writing, “show logic,” but I don’t see why the quotation marks should be necessary. 

MrJay says that you do not give up a castle. I think this is a solid argument. Here is the part of his post that I quoted: 

"...The show can say that casterly rock is a death trap and that it is worthless to anyone. That doesn't make it any less stupid. ...

Daeny would have her main foothold and split the 7k in two as well as control Lannisport and the port of KL from dragonstone. 

If this was written with even the slightest amount of military sense, Cersei would have lost by now in a dozen ways. 

You do not give up a castle. Not even an empty one. They are that important. 

But that's real life. The show can say that dragons are worthless and it would be so cause show logic. "

The bolded part, if applied to the war in the south, is on point. Frequently in Season 7, the phrase “show logic” is an oxymoron. However, if we accept some things said in an earlier season, when the writing was better, it is the case that “Only a fool would meet the Dothraki in an open field.” Thus, Cersei’s act in sending her forces out into the open is the act of a fool. However, the king also doesn’t like the idea of staying in castles. What does he say is a viable long-term strategy? He doesn’t say. He does maintain that “We won’t be able to stop them.” Cersei gives reasons why the Dothraki are not such a threat. The king does not agree or disagree. He just says she sounds like her father. I don’t see how anyone can take Bob’s statements as a recommendation to either stay in castles or leave them. It sounds more like, “Hey, if the Dothraki get here, we’re probably doomed.”  

Also, Cersei does not go on the offensive with the full backing of the iron bank. She sends her forces most of the way across the continent and back before she gets said full backing. This enterprise, as I and others have said, is ridiculous. You have an army, including Reach forces, marching out in the open for the purpose of killing the liege  of the Reach and despoiling the land. You also have Olenna Tyrell, a character who has been portrayed as one of the sharpest ladies in Westeros, acting like one of the dumbest broads in the world. No reasonable military men (Jaime, Bron, whoever) would have assumed that they could just depend on unbelievable stupidity on the part of their enemies. The whole thing fits in with MrJay’s “would have lost by now in a dozen ways.”

Dude. 

You literally said this:

“On the castle issue, I vote with MrJay. In fact, I'd go a bit further. I don't think the show is even true to its own logic. Do you remember the scene from "The Wolf and the Lion" (Season 1,5) where Robert talks to Cersei about the dangers of a Viserys-led invasion? He says the Westerosi leaders would hole up in their castles.”

 

you said that the show is not true to its own logic because they had Cersei give up a castle after hearing Robert talk in season 1 about how staying in castles would not work. How does that make sense?

 

You also said this:

 

”Furthermore, what about the label “Kingslayer.” Has this insult, so prominent and important earlier in the story, somehow just gone out of existence? If people are so prejudiced against the Mother of Dragons because of her parentage, why then don’t they celebrate the man who killed the mad ruler?“ 

 

literally these are two comments that just betray a lack of understanding of what was going on in season 1. 

 

I don’t mind critizing the show. I have myself in this very thread. But at least understand what is going on in the show before you criticize it. How can you say something doesn’t make sense if you don’t even understand what is going on? And on the second point it has nothing to do with the show since Jaime being scorned for being a Kingslayer by people who hated the old Targaryen regime comes directly from the books. 

[MrJay]

On 10/8/2017 at 3:54 PM, jcmontea said:

So basically the options on the table were a.) defend casterly rock or b.) abandon it to capture highgarden and take its gold to fund an expansion of your army. 

If you go with b, maybe they can use it as a base of operation but you can now pay off the Iron bank and fund a bigger army. If you go with a.) maybe you can defend it but you lose lots of men defending it, risk the iron bank calling its loans and turning to Dany and you are still severally outbumbered against 100k dothraki and three dragons. 

Do you think Casterly Rock is of such strategic value its worth risking the Iron Bank changing sides? 

Those are not the only options.

The show made it clear that a small force can defend a castle. Let's take the sewers out of play (since the Lannisters probably were unaware). We have seen sieges in the show. Stannis, The Blackfish. It's already set up that seiges are basically a long game of starving folks out with Westeros tech. All they had to do was hunker down.

A lot of people will not be lost. Castles are designed to give the inhabitants a superior advantage. Even if everyone fought, chances are for every man you lost the enemy would lose at least 10 (most likely more). Seiging a castle without seige weapons (meant to break down the walls) is a death sentence. The inhabitants would be safe.

So the brunt of Lannister forces are in Casterly Rock. (Realistically only a few hundred would be left, but let's pretend that over half remains). You have the Reach. You can still defeat Highgarden since the majority of their forces are now on your side. Tarly would make quick work of them, get the gold and food, and your debt will be paid. On top of that, a large number of your enemies forces are now stuck at Casterly Rock and out of the game.

A savvy commander (Like Tywin) would then swing the Tarly force around to strike the backs of your enemy. It would be an easy win, and Daeny will be left with just the Dothraki and her dragons. Dargons that cannot burn down Casterly Rock since it's basically part of the mountain.

This is the entire reason Tyrion went with the sewer gambit. Cause seiging the rock would be a fools errand. If not for that, there is no way a seige of the rock would have worked. Cersei had an out that would have worked and been believable.

[jcmontea]

3 minutes ago, MrJay said:

Those are not the only options.

The show made it clear that a small force can defend a castle. Let's take the sewers out of play (since the Lannisters probably were unaware). We have seen sieges in the show. Stannis, The Blackfish. It's already set up that seiges are basically a long game of starving folks out with Westeros tech. All they had to do was hunker down.

A lot of people will not be lost. Castles are designed to give the inhabitants a superior advantage. Even if everyone fought, chances are for every man you lost the enemy would lose at least 10 (most likely more). Seiging a castle without seige weapons (meant to break down the walls) is a death sentence. The inhabitants would be safe.

So the brunt of Lannister forces are in Casterly Rock. (Realistically only a few hundred would be left, but let's pretend that over half remains). You have the Reach. You can still defeat Highgarden since the majority of their forces are now on your side. Tarly would make quick work of them, get the gold and food, and your debt will be paid. On top of that, a large number of your enemies forces are now stuck at Casterly Rock and out of the game.

A savvy commander (Like Tywin) would then swing the Tarly force around to strike the backs of your enemy. It would be an easy win, and Daeny will be left with just the Dothraki and her dragons. Dargons that cannot burn down Casterly Rock since it's basically part of the mountain.

This is the entire reason Tyrion went with the sewer gambit. Cause seiging the rock would be a fools errand. If not for that, there is no way a seige of the rock would have worked. Cersei had an out that would have worked and been believable.

Your assunption is that they could defeat Highgarden without the Lannister forces at Casterly Rock. You also at the same time say that castles are incredible fortifications and super difficult to overcome. 

Isn’t that a bit contradictory? Your superior strategy is to attack a very difficult to overcome fortification with a lot less men than they attacked it with? If castles are truly as impregnable as you say, doesn’t it make sense to go with everything you have so you can ensure your odds of success? Especially in a must win mission? 

[jcmontea]

34 minutes ago, MrJay said:

 

Cersei basically stabbed herself in the lung and the show flipped it to look like she outwitted Daeny.

We must be watching different shows. What i saw is Cersei pull off a high risk gambit in episode 3 that left her open to a counter attack. I saw Dany execute a vicious and brutal counter attack in episode 4 that convinced the general of the opposing army that the war was over and there was no military path to victory. Absent the intervention of the NK and the communication of that via Bran and his ravens the war in the south was over in episode 5 with the path to KL completley open and nothing that Cersei or the Lannisters could do. Which is why her top general was telling her they had no chance of victory.  

[MrJay]

27 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

We must be watching different shows. What i saw is Cersei pull off a high risk gambit in episode 3 that left her open to a counter attack. I saw Dany execute a vicious and brutal counter attack in episode 4 that convinced the general of the opposing army that the war was over and there was no military path to victory. Absent the intervention of the NK and the communication of that via Bran and his ravens the war in the south was over in episode 5 with the path to KL completley open and nothing that Cersei or the Lannisters could do. Which is why her top general was telling her they had no chance of victory.  

Cersei is "losing" because of more idiocy. Not because of her many legit failings. It's kinda sad when you think on it. She has done so much to earn herself a loss and a beheading, and they pull some asinine stuff for her to lose? It's... I don't even have the word for it. It's like watching a hacker break into a network, leave their name, address and contact list behind with video evidence of their face, only to have some rookie cop crack the case because he had a hunch and went for a stroll one day and caught the hacker bragging. It's mind boggling. 

Do you realize what it would take for that counter attack to happen? 

 

- Daeny marshaling all her forces onto ships. Or ferrying them little by little... 

- Into enemy controlled land without anyone seeing who can sound an alarm... 

- knowing exactly where the lannister army was before even the first Dothraki started riding 

- No scouts at all along the way 

- and them not expecting to be attacked while moving. 

My head hurts just thinking on it. Everyone in westeros must be at least 90 iq points lower than any living human for this stuff to fly. It all works if we are told they are imbeciles, and it would surprisingly explain how they can be stuck in feudalism for thousands of years when we left that crap behind in less than 500.