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Tyrion1991

(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

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1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

The plan is cool for a Lannister - Tyrell war. But it completely ignores the stategic situation.

The point of this plan is to use Casterly Rock 1. as a decoy to distract Dany's attention from what is their real goal - Highgarden, and 2. as a trap for Unsullied.

This plan doesn't ignore strategic situation.

As result of this plan Dany's armies were devided. Euron burned their fleet. So they had to go on foot thru entire Reach, where there's no food left (not that there's no food for Reach's people, but they won't share what was left of it, also it still wouldn't be enought to feed an army).

Lannisters took gold from Highgarden, repayed with it their debt to Iron Bank. Furthermore now they can hire 20,000 sellswords from Golden Company. And they will still have lots of gold left afterwards.

They took away nearly all harvest from Reach's fields and farms. 

Dany's original plan was to siege King's Landing and keep them isolated without food (they discused this plan in S7E2). They thought that Cersei won't have a choice and eventually will capitulate, and give Iron Throne to Dany, and Dany will become a Queen without massacre.

Dany lost Olenna and Highgarden. She lost Dorne and Yara. She lost her fleet. Part of it was destroyed when Euron caught Yara and Sand Mom. Another part was burned near Casterly Rock. Dany nearly has no more ships.

And her armies were devided for some time (enought for Lannisters to prepare KL for a long siege). Prior she went to Westeros, Olenna, Yara and Sands agreed to support Dany and her troops. Provide them with transportation, and FOOD. But now without Reach's resources, that was taken away by Cersei, Dany's armies have nothing to eat or even feed their horses.

Now their original plan is DOOMED. If they will seige KL, then they will be the ones who will starve to death, while Cersei and her people in KL will be eating all sorts of delicasies bought with Olenna's gold. 

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What this plan basicly does is shifting troops in the Reach. The only thing where Dany's armys even are planed in is in Casterly Rock.

You just don't see the bigger picture.

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The plan does not even prevent Dany's troops from mirroring the movement of Lannister-Tarly. So at the least there is an army coming down over the road. And that is not even Dany's main army. Given her army and attack vector she simply has to besiege or ignore KL and fully assault the Reach from the other side.

Dany had no ships to sail her Dothraki all the way around King's Landing, Stormlands, Dorne, Reach, the way she transported Unsullied to Westerlands and Casterly Rock. She and her Dothraki arrived from the East and Dragonstone, not from the West and Reach. After that they traveled on foot, and cut off Jaime near gates of King's Landing. Majority of Lannister troops already went past the gates, so Dany burned only their tail.

And Dany doesn't want to ambush KL. And Cersei knows that, and counted on that. Because as Dany said in S7E2 if her brother had three dragons, he would've already burned KL, and seized Iron Throne. Cersei knows that Dany has dragons, so if she wanted to, she could seize KL, so if she haven't done so yet, means that she won't/ can't/ or don't want to.

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Which traps great general tarly between 2 armies from the north, the sea, the dornish mountains and that is even before Dorne has moved an army. 

Have you looked at Westeros' map at all?

I recommend you this map

http://gameofthrones.net/images/Westeros_Maps/map_of_westeros.jpg

and this http://gameofthrones.net/images/Westeros_Maps/Map_Westeros_Political.gif

Reach is separated from Dorne by mountains. So Lannisters won't be attacked from that side. Not to mention that currently Dorne is 'headless', and Stormlands too. In the North 3/4 of the Reach is bordering with Westerlands, and 1/4 with Riverlands (currently under Lannister's control) and KL. They also won't be attacked from western side, from Sunset Sea, because Dany has no fleet. Reach's seven cities on sides of Roseroad that leads from Highgarden to King's Landing, won't attack Lannisters. One of them supports Lannisters, three of them doesn't participate anymore in any battles after Renly's death, and three others were eliminated in battles for/against Stannis. 

So there's no one to trap them. 

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21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I assumed Dany was getting all of her food from Essos? 

Probably from Reach and Dorne by Yara's ships.

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21 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Probably from Reach and Dorne by Yara's ships.

If she controls the Dothraki then she should control Essos. I thought Stalion who mounts world conquers everything? 

I mean in the books I would be extremely surprised for GRRM to not involve all of the Essosi nations in the war for the dawn and by far the easiest and most logical way is for Dany to absorb them when she marches south. Fulfilling a whole bunch of prophecies and being very Wheel of Time in scope.

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22 minutes ago, lancerman said:

You are overstating what Cersei did in comparison to her actual support vs the outsider threat Dany is. 

-yes Cersei was imprisoned by a radical religious movement that as far as we know was never embraced by the religious leaders in OldTown who gained muscle and flexed it against a weak king who refused to shut them down. Cersei killed all of them. That power opposing Cersei doesn't exist anymore. The lowborn aren't powerful enough to take on Cersei, the Lannister's weren't happy that Cersei was imprisoned aside from Kevan and he died too. Cersei and Jamir are the heirs to Tywin and were controlling the Lannister troops at KL more than Kevan was. As seen by Jamie taking Riverrum with Lannister troops that season. So Kevan apparently wasn't the head of the Lannister House. 

- you are now sweeping aside a very big deal. There is no rational society that would take kindly to Dany invading their lands. She's the daughter of an ousted king who is bringing foreign savages known to be vicious killers to their country along with 3 weapons of mass destruction. There is no rational way to sweep that under the rug. That would be like if Hitler's long lost grand daughter came to Germany bringing nuclear arms and Vietnam guerilla fighters claiming she was going to take back her rightful position as the head of state. Doesn't matter how unpopular the current German Chamcellor is in that scenario. Dany is an outsider of a dishonored like bringing weapons and foreign invaders to the land. No state is going to side with her. 

1. Jamie and some troops saw the dragons. Jamie voiced his concerns to Cersei. Cersei thinks she can outmaneuver them and also thinks she can kill dragons since one is dead. Not everyone fought the dragons that day. Regardless you don't go against your leader because the aside has strong weapons.

2. No you wouldn't abandoned a sinking ship. So far in this war, Dany lost most contests except the final one, and she only flexed muscle there. In any way their is s risk of picking sides. Why didn't the nobility of Westeros all immediately support Aegon? Why did Dorne keep fighting a lost cause. Some people aren't going to want to support the daughter of a crazy king who is bringing savages to their land. People still go to war with the U.S. even though they know they could wipe them off the map if they wanted.

3. Why every country in the world makes life and death decisions based off third hand info given by their leaders 

Except Dany could gain allies through holding court and actually, I don't know, talking to the Lord's and nobles of Westeros which is actually how things get done. Unfortunately her Hand and Spymaster are extremely bad at their jobs all of a sudden and even Olenna is not acting like her usual self.

Then her allies from Dorne are just the worst possible people for her to Ally herself with, the Nightking would have been better. There is a reason no one cared when ellaria and the sand fakes were killed and that is because Dorne was royally fucked by D$D's writing. 

@Megorova you keep mixing in stuff from the books that never ever happened on the show. Book!Tyrells Mace has four kids, Show!Tyrells Mace has two kids who both got blown up in the Sept along with him and his wife. Book!Euron is all about fucking up the Reach, Show!Euron just sails straight to Kingslanding after building close to 1000 Ships faster than the famously fast Bravoosi shipwrights could.

Also no one in the Reach is fed up with the Tyrells over allying with Renly and no one supported the Lannisters. That alliance had over 70000-100000 troops in it and would have won if not for Renly getting shadowbabied. House Tyrell was making all the right moves until cersie's terrorist attack against westeros' vatican. Which no sane person could have predicted. 

After that it should have been easy for Dany to sway the Reach Lords to her side with the right words. 

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18 minutes ago, The Golden Wolf said:

Except Dany could gain allies through holding court and actually, I don't know, talking to the Lord's and nobles of Westeros which is actually how things get done. Unfortunately her Hand and Spymaster are extremely bad at their jobs all of a sudden and even Olenna is not acting like her usual self.

Then her allies from Dorne are just the worst possible people for her to Ally herself with, the Nightking would have been better. There is a reason no one cared when ellaria and the sand fakes were killed and that is because Dorne was royally fucked by D$D's writing. 

@Megorova you keep mixing in stuff from the books that never ever happened on the show. Book!Tyrells Mace has four kids, Show!Tyrells Mace has two kids who both got blown up in the Sept along with him and his wife. Book!Euron is all about fucking up the Reach, Show!Euron just sails straight to Kingslanding after building close to 1000 Ships faster than the famously fast Bravoosi shipwrights could.

Also no one in the Reach is fed up with the Tyrells over allying with Renly and no one supported the Lannisters. That alliance had over 70000-100000 troops in it and would have won if not for Renly getting shadowbabied. House Tyrell was making all the right moves until cersie's terrorist attack against westeros' vatican. Which no sane person could have predicted. 

After that it should have been easy for Dany to sway the Reach Lords to her side with the right words. 

House Tyrell was the strongest power in the Reach. Once they lost their teeth it was divided by those who supported Tarly and the rest that stayed put. 

Its like saying if House Stark died out via Lannister that the North would unite with Stannis. No because the Bolton's existed 

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1 hour ago, lancerman said:

You are overstating what Cersei did in comparison to her actual support vs the outsider threat Dany is. 

-yes Cersei was imprisoned by a radical religious movement that as far as we know was never embraced by the religious leaders in OldTown who gained muscle and flexed it against a weak king who refused to shut them down. Cersei killed all of them. That power opposing Cersei doesn't exist anymore. The lowborn aren't powerful enough to take on Cersei, the Lannister's weren't happy that Cersei was imprisoned aside from Kevan and he died too. Cersei and Jamir are the heirs to Tywin and were controlling the Lannister troops at KL more than Kevan was. As seen by Jamie taking Riverrum with Lannister troops that season. So Kevan apparently wasn't the head of the Lannister House. 

- you are now sweeping aside a very big deal. There is no rational society that would take kindly to Dany invading their lands. She's the daughter of an ousted king who is bringing foreign savages known to be vicious killers to their country along with 3 weapons of mass destruction. There is no rational way to sweep that under the rug. That would be like if Hitler's long lost grand daughter came to Germany bringing nuclear arms and Vietnam guerilla fighters claiming she was going to take back her rightful position as the head of state. Doesn't matter how unpopular the current German Chamcellor is in that scenario. Dany is an outsider of a dishonored like bringing weapons and foreign invaders to the land. No state is going to side with her. 

1. Jamie and some troops saw the dragons. Jamie voiced his concerns to Cersei. Cersei thinks she can outmaneuver them and also thinks she can kill dragons since one is dead. Not everyone fought the dragons that day. Regardless you don't go against your leader because the aside has strong weapons.

2. No you wouldn't abandoned a sinking ship. So far in this war, Dany lost most contests except the final one, and she only flexed muscle there. In any way their is s risk of picking sides. Why didn't the nobility of Westeros all immediately support Aegon? Why did Dorne keep fighting a lost cause. Some people aren't going to want to support the daughter of a crazy king who is bringing savages to their land. People still go to war with the U.S. even though they know they could wipe them off the map if they wanted.

3. Why every country in the world makes life and death decisions based off third hand info given by their leaders 

 

You think Cersei isn't insane and evil? Despite Jamie walking out on her this season and her acting like a super villain? 

She is the rightful heir to the Iron Throne come to rid Westeros of an evil regime that has slaughtered millions of Westerosi out of base greed and has no legitimacy. She has returned Dragons to the world in a miracle that implies divine favour. She is the most beautiful woman in the world. She has freed millions of people across the world. She is likely Azor Ahai and has United half the world against the Undead. Dany isn't invading Westeros. She is deposing a corrupt government that has destroyed Westeros.

So you think that Tarly going "ugh brown people" is supposed to be sympathetic? I honestly don't understand what more you people want. Surely Jon Snow accepting Dany is the point where this vindictiveness goes away? She doesn't want to kill the Starks. She accepts her Dad was mad. She takes Tyrions advice not to burn Kings Landing or Yunkai. She believes in the Dead and goes to fight them. She doesn't even kill your sainted and beloved Stannis.

On the show, this is a black and white situation. Dany is good. Cersei is evil. Anyone who follows Cersei is either an idiot or evil themselves. Both deserve death. Why should I weep for Lannister scum? Season 7 makes it clear that Cersei's plan will doom humanity by refusing aid to the living. Anyone that goes along with this plan is crazy. Quite frankly, the Nights King killing all those idiots in the Westerlands and Kings landing would be justice. They're beneath contempt and long past the point of redemption.

That army made the Riverlands howl because Tywin wanted petty revenge. Dany isn't even willing to burn a castle down. The only invaders are the Lannister scum who occupy the Riverlands, Stormlands and Reach. Who allied with the Boltons and committed the Red Wedding. Who murdered the Lords  the Reach and West at the sept of Barlow. So yes, obviously everyone in Westeros sees Dany as the evil one and not the monstrous Lannisters. Have we even been watching the same show? The Lannisters are filthy wretched creatures who should die like the freys and boltons. The North Remembers. They have been at the centre of almost every atrocity committed on the series and have almost no redeeming features. The bad far outweighs the good.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

If she controls the Dothraki then she should control Essos.

Population of Essos is a bit over 42 millions, out of them only 4 millions are Dothraki. Even Slaver's Bay population is slightly over 10 millions.

Dany has about 100,000 riders, and that's not enough to control entire Essos.

Info from here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/115756-population-estimates-of-the-7k-and-essos/

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7 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Population of Essos is a bit over 42 millions, out of them only 4 millions are Dothraki. Even Slaver's Bay population is slightly over 10 millions.

Dany has about 100,000 riders, and that's not enough to control entire Essos.

Info from here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/115756-population-estimates-of-the-7k-and-essos/

Mongols. That is my answer. :)

 

So she has 14 million people behind her? At least and that assuming she didn't take anywhere else in Essos. Volantis with its fire worshippers for example.

Edited by Tyrion1991

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1 hour ago, The Golden Wolf said:

you keep mixing in stuff from the books that never ever happened on the show. Book!Tyrells Mace has four kids, Show!Tyrells Mace has two kids who both got blown up in the Sept along with him and his wife. Book!Euron is all about fucking up the Reach, Show!Euron just sails straight to Kingslanding after building close to 1000 Ships faster than the famously fast Bravoosi shipwrights could.

Also no one in the Reach is fed up with the Tyrells over allying with Renly and no one supported the Lannisters. That alliance had over 70000-100000 troops in it and would have won if not for Renly getting shadowbabied. House Tyrell was making all the right moves until cersie's terrorist attack against westeros' vatican. Which no sane person could have predicted. 

After that it should have been easy for Dany to sway the Reach Lords to her side with the right words. 

- Ok, what happened in the show is that Cersei convinced people of Reach to stay on her side, and not to follow Olenna. Randyll Tarly and his son went home to Horn Hill and prepared to ambush Highgarden, while Olenna was still away on Dragonstone. Meanwhile Lannister soldiers abandoned Casterly Rock and also went to Highgarden. At certain point Tarlys and CR's Lannisters were joined by Jaime and Bronn. Then all of them marched towards KL, on their way gathering Reach's resources to bring them to Cersei.

Nothing illogical or unexplainable in that.

- It's impossible for Dany to sway the Reach's Lords to her side.

In S7E2 Jon himself decided to go to Dragonstone and talk with Dany. Nevertheless he didn't trusted her, and went there only because he believed Tyrion. Though the main reason why he went is because he needed dragonglass, and also was hoping to sway Dany on his side, and bring her dragons to fight for the North against Undead Army.

Even though his people are closest to The Wall, and thus will be the first to die when it will fall, still northern Lords nearly started a rebellion when Jon announced his decision. Just remember Lyanna Mormonth's reaction.

So do you really think that ANYONE from the Reach's Lords would've willingly went to Dragonstone to chat with Dany? NO WAY!

Edited by Megorova

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

- Ok, what happened in the show is that Cersei convinced people of Reach to stay on her side, and not to follow Olenna. Randyll Tarly and his son went home to Horn Hill and prepared to ambush Highgarden, while Olenna was still away on Dragonstone. Meanwhile Lannister soldiers abandoned Casterly Rock and also went to Highgarden. At certain point Tarlys and CR's Lannisters were joined by Jaime and Bronn. Then all of them marched towards KL, on their way gathering Reach's resources to bring them to Cersei.

Nothing illogical or unexplainable in that.

- It's impossible for Dany to sway the Reach's Lords to her side.

In S7E2 Jon himself decided to go to Dragonstone and talk with Dany. Nevertheless he didn't trusted her, and went there only because he believed Tyrion. Though the main reason why he went is because he needed dragonglass, and also was hoping to sway Dany on his side, and bring her dragons to fight for the North against Undead Army.

Even though his people are closest to The Wall, and thus will be the first to die when it will fall, still northern Lords nearly started a rebellion when Jon announced his decision. Just remember Lyanna Mormonth's reaction.

So do you really think that ANYONE from the Reach's Lords would've willingly went to Dragonstone to chat with Dany? NO WAY!

 

Why wouldn't the Reach Lords be on her side?

You're forgetting that the only reason the Reach sided with House Lannister was because of Margerys marriage alliance. Once Cersei made the dumb decision of murdering Margery that should have caused everyone in the Reach to hate her. Not side with her against Daenerys. In fact the show essentially shields Cersei from the consequences of betraying the Tyrells. In AFFC it is made very clear that this was a foolish decision by Cersei and that if she did break that alliance it would likely doom the House. Instead she brushes it off like its nothing. 

To pick an obvious example, Lord Leyton Hightowers daughter Alerie was married to Mace Tyrell. So his daughter and grand children were murdered by Cersei. You're saying that he betrayed the Tyrells and was stupid enough to fall for Cersei's half baked lies that nobody should take seriously. Olenna herself is also from House Redwyne. You're saying they would betray their own kin? That literally only leaves the Tarlys, who for all their blustering about honour seem to have no issue with joining the faction which committed the Red Wedding and with a woman who murdered the previous King. "Because Danys a foreigner and apparently the Dothraki have such a history of committing atrocities on Westeros" completely ignoring the rape of the Riverlands by the Lannister army, the sack of Kings Landing and countless other crimes perpetuated by those red cloaked fascists.

Again you are seriously down playing how evil the Lannister faction is and all that they have done. They need to be hurled into the same pit as the Freys and Boltons. Cersei's Lannister faction are not simply another Machiavellian faction acting as a rational geo political entity within the understood morality of the day. They are abomination. They murdered Robert Baratheon. They murdered Ned. They abused Sansa. They destroyed the Riverlands. They killed Robb and the Northern Lords. They killed Cat. They tried to kill Tyrion. They brought the Faith Militant back. They murdered Margery and the Tyrells. That history is what Cersei and her army is, it is an act of wilful ignorance to forget all of that. So its rich that she calls the Dothraki savages after the way that army of rapists and torturers can be called that. People should be very aware of House Lannisters crimes by now in this world. 

So tell me, how am I, as an audience member, supposed to take seriously the notion that rational good people could side with these monsters? Even if they did. I am not going to sympathise with them. Dany destroying these creatures is nothing less than divine retribution. In the books, as ever, it is the fact that she has not yet made the distinction between the Starks/Baratheons and the Lannisters; who murdered Rhaegars children and sacked Kings Landing because Tywin was a petty man. Hence there is ambivalence in her wrathful nature. But that ambivalence does not exist on the show. This is not remotely a morally grey situation. What we have here is a Mad Queen, leading an army of Nazi scum with craven Lords who have no qualms about letting undead ravage the world. 

Basically people would side with Dany because she can get rid of Cersei. Its incredibly backwards that people would side with Cersei to oppose Daenerys who has not done anything to them rather than the woman who is the source of all their problems. The show decided that only the Tyrells and Martells would think this way; when actually it really is just the Lannisters and even that is a stretch since they are not REMOTELY powerful enough to fight all the other houses AND Dany. 

 

 

 

Edited by Tyrion1991

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This quote from ADWD dragons is interesting for those of us who have difficulty invisioning why noble houses might not follow Dany and stick with the devil they know. 

"Sweet?” Qavo laughed. “If even half the stories coming back from Slaver’s Bay are true, this child is a monster. They say that she is bloodthirsty, that those who speak against her are impaled on spikes to die lingering deaths. They say she is a sorceress who feeds her dragons on the flesh of newborn babes, an oathbreaker who mocks the gods, breaks truces, threatens envoys, and turns on those who have served her loyally. They say her lust cannot be sated, that she mates with men, women, eunuchs, even dogs and children, and woe betide the lover who fails to satisfy her. She gives her body to men to take their souls in thrall.”

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2 hours ago, jcmontea said:

This quote from ADWD dragons is interesting for those of us who have difficulty invisioning why noble houses might not follow Dany and stick with the devil they know. 

"Sweet?” Qavo laughed. “If even half the stories coming back from Slaver’s Bay are true, this child is a monster. They say that she is bloodthirsty, that those who speak against her are impaled on spikes to die lingering deaths. They say she is a sorceress who feeds her dragons on the flesh of newborn babes, an oathbreaker who mocks the gods, breaks truces, threatens envoys, and turns on those who have served her loyally. They say her lust cannot be sated, that she mates with men, women, eunuchs, even dogs and children, and woe betide the lover who fails to satisfy her. She gives her body to men to take their souls in thrall.”

The crucial phrase there is "They say." Qavo was clearly an interested party, not an impartial observer. Anyone with any sense in Westeros would at least send someone to talk to Dany and get the other side of the story. Anyone who did this would quickly find that this "They say" stuff is BS. 

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Let's review and reiterate some main arguments relevant to this thread: 

The lords of the Reach would have an obvious interest in protecting their land, their people, and their lives. They would have no reason at all for trusting that Ser Creep of the Torture Chamber could do something to stop a dragon. At least some of these fellows would be able to count. When someone presented them with one anti-dragon weapon, they would tell that someone to go to hell. The Mother of Dragons is a mother of THREE dragons. 

The lords and men of the Reach would not be stupid enough to go marching out in the open, just inviting the horsemen and the dragons to slaughter them. At least some of these lords and men would know enough history to remember the Field of Fire and what happened to the anti-Targ forces there. 

Dany’s forces have proven to be very good at surprise attacks and infiltration. The opportunities for these things in King's Landing are obvious. For no good reason at all, none of the formerly intelligent people like Varys, Tyrion, and Davos see these opportunities. Instead, we have a lot of hand wringing about how terrible it would be to destroy the Red Keep and burn the city. No one sees the obvious point that such destruction will not be necessary. All the business about known smuggler’s paths, tunnels beneath the city that have been put to good use by Dany’s advisers in the past, and guards that are easy to bribe is not even discussed in war councils.*  This is absurd. 

Westeros is (or at least was in the early seasons) an interesting quasi medieval society. Leaders in such a society know that their prestige, power, and wealth are based on the land. The idea that the Tarlys and others would strip their lands of wealth and food on the orders of Borg Queen Brotherfucker in the capital is ludicrous. 

What posts have I seen, in this thread or elsewhere, which present worthwhile counter arguments to these points? 

None

The central assertion of this thread is decisively affirmed: The war makes no sense

 

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

* Okay, there is a mission that uses a path and some tunnels for the essentially silly purposes of getting a guy with a hammer and trying to arrange a meeting with a totally untrustworthy back-stabbing “queen.” This does nothing to change the argument.

 

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6 minutes ago, Jabul said:

The crucial phrase there is "They say." Qavo was clearly an interested party, not an impartial observer. Anyone with any sense in Westeros would at least send someone to talk to Dany and get the other side of the story. Anyone who did this would quickly find that this "They say" stuff is BS. 

I think you overestimate people's ability to see through BS when the BS conforms to their initial convictions. 

Confirmation bias is a huge thing. For most of the lords of westeros who fought the mad king and heard terrible stories about him they are already predisposed to think the worst of Daenerys. If they hear stories about how terrible she is psycologically its much more probable they take it as confirmation that they were correct than that they respond like scientists - "hmm interesting. I need to test this hypothesis. Let me go gather more evidence." 

That is why fake news is a thing. People just believe it because thats what they want to believe they don't say hugh let me gather more evidence. 

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18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Why wouldn't the Reach Lords be on her side?

Because they already have a Queen, the one they see as their rightful ruler. And there's no reason for them to replace her. Furthermore even if there was, there's no such a thing as impeachment in 7K. Also Cersei was their Queen for over 15 years, and before that her father Tywin ruled in 7K for over 30 years. Even though Aerys was the King, people were saying that the one who rules in 7K is Tywin.

They have a Queen. They are loyal to her.

Jaime's conversation with Randyll:

Spoiler
Quote

JAIME: Thank you for coming. The other lords of the Reach look to you for guidance now more than ever. They might not have come if you hadn't.

RANDYLL: If my queen summons me, I answer the call. And I've heard what she does to those that defy her.

JAIME: Do you ride for Hornhill today?

RANDYLL: I have an army to mobilize. It won't be long until the fighting starts.

JAIME: And what side will you be fighting for? You were the only man to defeat Robert Baratheon in battle. Not even Rhaegar Targaryen could --

RANDYLL: It's a long ride back to the reach, Ser Jaime. How may I serve?

JAIME: I want you to be my ranking general in the wars to come. I want you to swear allegiance to Cersei and I want you to help her destroy her enemies. All of her enemies.

RANDYLL: Including Olenna Tyrell? I'm a Tarley. That name means something. We're not oath breakers. We're not schemers. We don't stab our rivals in the back or cut their throats at weddings. I swore an oath to House Tyrell.

JAIME: You swore an oath to the Crown as well, Lord Tarley.

RANDYLL: I've known Olenna since I was a child.

JAIME: She was a great woman, once. Now she's broken. She wants revenge so badly she brought the Dothraki to our shores. The Dothraki in Westeros for the first time in history. I know you don't like my sister, but you have to make a choice. Do you fight with us or with the foreign savages and eunuchs?

RANDYLL nods his head in agreement

JAIME: When the war is won the queen will need a new warden of the south. I can think of no better man than Randyll Tarley.

Then suddenly comes back daughter of Mad King, that was absent from 7K for the last 20 or so years. They don't know her personally, never even saw her, but all they know about her is a negative information, and all that information is indeed truthful.

Cersei's speech from E2:

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CERSEI: If the Mad King's daughter takes the Iron Throne, she will destroy the Realm as we know it. Some of you are bannermen of House Tyrell. But House Tyrell is in open rebellion against the Crown. With their help the Mad King's daughter has ferried an army of savages to our shores. Mindless Unsullied soldiers who will destroy your castles and your holdfasts. Dothraki heathens who will burn your villages to the ground, rape and enslave your women, and butcher your children without a second thought. This is how Olenna Tyrell rewards centuries of service and loyalty.

You all remember the Mad King. You remember the horrors he inflicted upon his people. His daughter is no different. In Essos her brutality is already legendary. She crucified hundreds of noblemen in Slaver's Bay. And when she grew bored of that, she fed them to her dragons.

It is my solemn duty to protect the people, and I will, but I need your help, My Lords. We must stand together, all of us, if we hope to stop her.

Now let's analyze this speech:

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If the Mad King's daughter takes the Iron Throne, she will destroy the Realm as we know it.

And that is 100% truth. Dany wants to break the wheel. And what will that do to all Great Houses of 7K? It will destroy them.

And did she asked people of Westeros what THEY want? No, she didn't. She just said: 'Ready or not, here I come :P '

She arrived to Westeros, and what a great coincidence - immediately after that the long winter began. She brought DOOM with her.

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But House Tyrell is in open rebellion against the Crown. With their help the Mad King's daughter has ferried an army of savages to our shores.

100% truth.

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Mindless Unsullied soldiers who will destroy your castles and your holdfasts.

Unsullied are indeed mindless inhuman monsters.

"Their training starts at age five and is from dawn to dusk. It is brutal, designed not only to teach them how to fight, but to strip away all individuality, empathy, and self-worth."

"They regularly consume an elixir called the wine of courage to deaden their sensitivity to pain. They drink it with every meal, and every year feel less and less pain." <- they are junkies on crack.

"On the day a boy is cut, he is given a puppy to take care of. At the end of the first year, the boy is made to strangle the puppy."

"To win their spiked cap they must take a silver mark go to the slave markets and buy a newborn slave child and kill it before its mother and pay the slave's owner for his loss."

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Dothraki heathens who will burn your villages to the ground, rape and enslave your women, and butcher your children without a second thought.

And Dothraki are like a hive of locusts - they arrive and destroy everything, kill men and children, impregnate women with Dothraki spawns, exhaust all resources, and then go to next settlement to destory it too.

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This is how Olenna Tyrell rewards centuries of service and loyalty.

There's no guaranty that Dany will be able to stop Dothraki from doing whatever they will want, once they will arrive to inhabited areas of Westeros. She won't be able to track all their actions, and prevent transgressions. Even in Drogo's khalasar all men were savages. Dothraki treat like garbage even their own wifes - like that khal that broke his wife's ribs just because she gave birth to a daughter.

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You all remember the Mad King. You remember the horrors he inflicted upon his people. His daughter is no different.

That's true, she likes to burn people. Ask Randyll Tarley.

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In Essos her brutality is already legendary. She crucified hundreds of noblemen in Slaver's Bay. And when she grew bored of that, she fed them to her dragons.

All true. Also Dany is very impulsive. First she ordered to crucifie nobles, but later she discovered that among them were also good and just people. She regretted her actions, but it was already too late. Nevertheless recently she made the same mistake burning Turleys. She NEVER learns.

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It is my solemn duty to protect the people, and I will, but I need your help, My Lords. We must stand together, all of us, if we hope to stop her.

Cersei is offering to her people unity, peace and stability, while Dany is bringing chaos and ruin with her. So of course they have chosen to support Cersei.

Also you have an erroneous biased view of what general public thinks about Cersei. We as readers/viewers know everything about all characters, while characters themselves have a very limited information about each other and Game of Thrones big players. 

18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

They murdered Robert Baratheon.

Cersei never admitted this, even to High Sparrow. Out of all accusations she acknowledged only her affair with Lancel Lannister.

General public believes that Robert's death was result of hunting accident. What average people all over Planetos think about situation about Robert's death, Ned's execution, Joffrey's death, Tyrion's escape, Sansa's fate, is well depicted in that theatrical performance that Arya saw several times while she was in Braavos. Each time D&D showed to GTO viewers different piece of that play, and there was lots of information there, and it wasn't shown just for fun, or to fill screen time.

Script of that play: http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/The_Bloody_Hand

18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

They murdered Ned.

People think that Ned Stark was rightfully executed for his treachery. They heard his confession. His daughter Sansa was standing there together with Cersei and her beloved Joffrey. From then on they viewed her as traitor's daughter.

18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

They abused Sansa.

General public also wanted to abuse Sansa (S2E6).

You're mistaken if you think that people knew that Cersei or Joffrey abused or mistreated Sansa. The only people who witnessed that harrasment were from Lannisters inner circle.

After Ned's execution Joffrey brought Sansa to show her severed head of her father and nanny, he also ordered Meryn Trant to hit her. But the only people that were there, were him, Sansa, the Hound, and Meryn Trant.

In 2-4 when Joffrey ordered Meryn Trant to beat Sansa, people present there were all Lannister's supporters. Also Joffrey gave this order after hearing of Robb Stark's latest victory. So all people present there were against Sansa and her family.

And to everyone else Sansa was always saying that she loves Joffrey, and wants to stay with him. That she's thankful to Lannisters for their forgivness, that they allowed her to stay in KL, even though her father betrayed the Crown, and her brother Robb is a rebel.

She always said only praises for Joffrey and Cersei. Only once did she slipped and told her real opinion about them - to Olenna and Margaery (and because of what she said, Olenna decided to poison Joffrey).

18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

They destroyed the Riverlands. They killed Robb and the Northern Lords. They killed Cat.

Riverlands rebelled against crown, and conspired with traitor Robb Stark.

Robb, Cat and Northern Lords were killed by Freys and Boltons <- also northeners. So general public doesn't blame Lannisters for it. Officially Lannister have nothing to do with it. Only we, viewers, know that Tywin Lannister was involved in (planned) this betrayal.

18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

They tried to kill Tyrion.

So what? People think that Tyrion Lannister conspired with Ned Stark to kill King Robert. Then Tyrion gave order to execute Ned, not to share power with him. And then Tyrion poisoned Joffrey.

Just rewatch that Braavosi spectacle, it depicts opinion of general public in Westeros and Essos about Cersei, Tyrion, Ned, Sansa, Joffrey.

18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

People should be very aware of House Lannisters crimes by now in this world. 

They are not aware. And how can they be? They are kept in the dark. The only information that they know is official information provided to them by crown officials.

The only bad thing that they know about Cersei is that she cheated on her husband with Lancel Lannister, and that for this she went thru walk of shame. But people also knew that Robert was a horndog, and frequenly visited local brothels. In books he had 18!!! bastard children. Also having extramarital affair isn't such a grave sin. Probably lots of people in 7K occasionally stray away from their spouses, to have some fun on the side. For example Ned Stark <- at least people think that he was a cheater.

18 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Basically people would side with Dany because she can get rid of Cersei. Its incredibly backwards that people would side with Cersei to oppose Daenerys who has not done anything to them rather than the woman who is the source of all their problems.

We know what kind of person Cersei is, and we know that Dany is a good person (with occasional lapses of judgement, and a bit overimpulsive). But GOT people of Westeros doesn't know that. They don't even know that Cersei IS the source of their problems. And most likely they will NEVER know. I doubt that Cersei will inform inhabitants of KL about Undead Army. So if they will come, or rather WHEN they will come, it will be a big deadly surprise for everyone. But so far they don't know that Dany came to KL to offer them help. They saw only her terrifying dragons, and her barbaric armies lined up in front of their gates.

They won't side with her. There's no reason. They don't know about White Walkers or Night's King. They don't know about Cersei's crimes. All they know is that Daenerys Targaryen came to conquer them.

Edited by Megorova

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1 hour ago, Jabul said:

The crucial phrase there is "They say." Qavo was clearly an interested party, not an impartial observer. Anyone with any sense in Westeros would at least send someone to talk to Dany

But who would volunteer to go there? And most importantly for what reason - just in case that all information about her may not be reliable?

When northern King came to her, on her invitation, she took away his ship, and imprisoned him. Noble people and Lords won't come there, people from their households would never allow it. And peasants can't just self invite themselves to one of her tea parties.

So far out of 40 millions inhabitants of Westeros, Jon is the only one who expressed desire to met with Dany, to see who she really is. But even he decided to meet with her only after he was out of other options, he desperately needed allies and dragonglass. Other people would rather allie with Cersei, because even though she may be evil, but she's a known evil, while Targaryen Queen is something totally alien to them.

So unless people will see Night's King with their own eyes, until then, for all of westerosi, Dany is a Big Evil.

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1 hour ago, Jabul said:

They would have no reason at all for trusting that Ser Creep of the Torture Chamber could do something to stop a dragon. At least some of these fellows would be able to count. When someone presented them with one anti-dragon weapon, they would tell that someone to go to hell. The Mother of Dragons is a mother of THREE dragons

Would you carry a separate GUN for each BULLET? :rolleyes:

Though they have one weapon, they have many arrows. Also probably they build several of them, but took to Reach only one.

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Would you carry a separate GUN for each BULLET? :rolleyes:

Though they have one weapon, they have many arrows. Also probably they build several of them, but took to Reach only one.

A gun is a tested weapon. I'd make sure any gun I used had a very good track record, especially if I had to depend on it to keep from getting roasted. Ser Creep has zero experience fighting dragons, and his weapon could never have been tested against a living dragon. Furthermore, when you see the thing, it is obviously large, slow and clunky, as big medieval weapons inevitably were. Dragons are flying creatures, fast and maneuverable. Marching across open country with only one anti-dragon wagon is stupid. The fact that they could have built more is irrelevant. Add to this stupidity the fact that the Dothraki horde has a justified reputation for speed and ferocity. The idea that they would give you the chance to unpack and crank up your weapon, then take some shots at their queen is laughable. The fact that Daenerys only brought one of her beasts is unexplained and unjustified, basically a contrivance of the show runners. Of course, these things happen in the show; that part of the show is baloney. 

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

1. But who would volunteer to go there? And most importantly for what reason - just in case that all information about her may not be reliable?

2. When northern King came to her, on her invitation, she took away his ship, and imprisoned him. Noble people and Lords won't come there, people from their households would never allow it. And peasants can't just self invite themselves to one of her tea parties.

3. So far out of 40 millions inhabitants of Westeros, Jon is the only one who expressed desire to met with Dany, to see who she really is. But even he decided to meet with her only after he was out of other options, he desperately needed allies and dragonglass. Other people would rather allie with Cersei, because even though she may be evil, but she's a known evil, while Targaryen Queen is something totally alien to them.

So unless people will see Night's King with their own eyes, until then, for all of westerosi, Dany is a Big Evil.

1. Volunteering is in no way necessary. One more time, this is a quasi medieval society. If your liege tells you to go, you would go. The reasons to go are blatantly obvious. The preservation of your life, your land, and your titles are powerful ones. Any lord with half of a functioning brain would send someone (not ask for volunteers). What information are you referring to? All of this "No one would go there" stuff has a weak to non-existent basis. The contention seems to be that only bad rumors about the Mother of Dragons is allowable. What about the information that Barristan the Bold, one of the most honored and honorable men in Westeros, sought her out and served her loyally? What about the information that she may be the Princess That Is Promised, the hope of humanity against the threat of the Night King? 

2. So she took his boat away. So what? She listened to him and took his advice. Besides, who in Westeros knows about the boat? Imprisoned him? I hardly think that is the proper term. Even if it is taken as accurate, it was a damn short term that he served, far shorter and under better conditions than most monarchs would mete out. 

3. This is flat out false. People from Dorne, the Reach, and the Iron Islands met with Daenerys. Do you mean to say that they met with her against their desires? Targaryens are not totally alien to the Seven Kingdoms. They created the entity now known as the Seven Kingdoms. Robert Baratheon himself said there were yet Targ sympathizers in the land, people who still called him a usurper. People from Westeros know the dragon queen and support her. One of these, as I pointed out above, was the commander of the Kings Guard. 

 

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23 minutes ago, Jabul said:

The fact that Daenerys only brought one of her beasts is unexplained and unjustified

Even though dragons are smart, they can't distinguish one horserider from another, while they're flying high above battle field. So they would've burned Lannisters and Dothraki all together. So instead she took into battle only one dragon, and directed him who to burn.

Other time when she used dragons during sea battle, she took all three because then everyone else in that fleet were her enemies.

And in a battle beyong The Wall, Dany with Drogon landed close to Jon's people, and while she directed Drogon who to burn, her other dragons were further from living people and thus burned only wights.

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