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(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

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3 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

Deus-Ex-Euron is more or less the only thing I can't rationalize this season;

- How did he manage to build the iron armada in less than half a year? A season is roughly 1 year long, they started in S6E5. By S7E1 the fleet is finished. 
- How did he manage to find Yara's fleet in the middle of the ocean in the middle of the night? Even with a spy at Dragonstone this would be nigh impossible.
- How did he know that the remainder of the Targaryen-fleet had sailed to Casterly Rock, and how did he manage to show up exactly after the battle had commenced?
- Why is he so loyal to Cersei that he would do all the above things and continue to plot to backstab Team Dany when they're trying to save the entire realm? She has done nothing to earn neither his loyalty or his trust, quite the opposite in fact. If he ends up handing over the Golden Company to her, no questions asked I'm gonna be pissed. (Don't think this will happen actually.)
- Why would he antagonize Jamie the way he does? I admit that it made me chuckle, but from a logical standpoint, antagonizing the brother of the woman you want to marry, and the general of the armed forces to the house you want to marry into seems ...counter-productive to say the least.
 

I'm hoping at the very least Euron backstabs Cersei by not handing over the GC. Because surely D & D wouldn't be stupid enough to make him hand them over, no questions asked.

Surely they're not... (looks at boatsex) ...oh, right.

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19 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

Deus-Ex-Euron is more or less the only thing I can't rationalize this season;

- How did he manage to build the iron armada in less than half a year? A season is roughly 1 year long, they started in S6E5. By S7E1 the fleet is finished. 

It just makes no sense. 


- How did he manage to find Yara's fleet in the middle of the ocean in the middle of the night? Even with a spy at Dragonstone this would be nigh impossible.

Seems highly unlikely. Although i read an analysis that made me buy it a bit more since both fleets where in blackwater bay and the same thing actually happened to the US fleet in the pacific in wW2. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/08/getting-medieval-a-military-analysis-of-game-of-thrones-westeros-war/%3famp=1

Good analysis by military experts but basically comes down to Varys and Tyrion screwed up big time. 


- How did he know that the remainder of the Targaryen-fleet had sailed to Casterly Rock, and how did he manage to show up exactly after the battle had commenced?
- Why is he so loyal to Cersei that he would do all the above things and continue to plot to backstab Team Dany when they're trying to save the entire realm? She has done nothing to earn neither his loyalty or his trust, quite the opposite in fact. If he ends up handing over the Golden Company to her, no questions asked I'm gonna be pissed. (Don't think this will happen actually.)
- Why would he antagonize Jamie the way he does? I admit that it made me chuckle, but from a logical standpoint, antagonizing the brother of the woman you want to marry, and the general of the armed forces to the house you want to marry into seems ...counter-productive to say the least.
 

Totally. Although i am ok with him giving Jaime shit

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14 minutes ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

I'm hoping at the very least Euron backstabs Cersei by not handing over the GC. Because surely D & D wouldn't be stupid enough to make him hand them over, no questions asked.

Surely they're not... (looks at boatsex) ...oh, right.

Dude. Come on. Boat Sex was awesomely epic. #epicboatsex 

euron needs to steal that gold and go off to an island somewhere. 

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33 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

Casterly Rock was important because of its gold. Without the gold its just a castle with a nice seaside view. Still a nice castle to have. But if you can switch it for Highgarden you make that trade. If it still had gold mines you don't. 

Well ... maybe. However, as Jaime pointed out while riding with Bronn to KL, Dany could take Highgarden back any time. And that is the point. CR was not switched with Highgarden. CR was switched with gold. And although the food argument has been brought forward, there is no reason to believe Bronn can plunder villages for food in the Reach while the Unsullied can't to the same thing in the Westerlands. 

 

I still don't see that genious move the show made out of the taking of Highgarden. Was it a necessary move ? Hell yeah, Cersei had to fix her money problem to stay in the war that is not a war. It prolonged the war. But it did to change the overall strategic situation. 

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22 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Well ... maybe. However, as Jaime pointed out while riding with Bronn to KL, Dany could take Highgarden back any time. And that is the point. CR was not switched with Highgarden. CR was switched with gold. And although the food argument has been brought forward, there is no reason to believe Bronn can plunder villages for food in the Reach while the Unsullied can't to the same thing in the Westerlands. 

 

I still don't see that genious move the show made out of the taking of Highgarden. Was it a necessary move ? Hell yeah, Cersei had to fix her money problem to stay in the war that is not a war. It prolonged the war. But it did to change the overall strategic situation. 

Nothing other than what you said. Gave her the ability to live on other day which is incredibly valuable. Time is everything. Time gives options. Who knows what can happen with more time. Dany could die, she could lose all her dragons etc. 

but it also put the iron bank in her corner - or at least she thinks it did - which is one of the best allies you could have. 

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12 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

Nothing other than what you said. Gave her the ability to live on other day which is incredibly valuable.

At this point I believe Cersei could win a war against Dany by simply copying the Dornish strategy. Dany's entire commanding staff is so unbelievable weak. The only problem is ... Cersei only plays the political board and she needs to keep her generals alive. Dany is so incredible bad, there is not even a court not speaking of pre-Aegon-conquest sworn houses like Velaryon at her side.

She does not even care about loyal regions directly sworn to her father like ... Cracklaw Point. She doesn't give a single fuck about anything but her titles  ... or Jon.

I believe she deserves a crowning Viserys style.

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1 hour ago, MinscS2 said:

Deus-Ex-Euron is more or less the only thing I can't rationalize this season;

- How did he manage to build the iron armada in less than half a year? A season is roughly 1 year long, they started in S6E5. By S7E1 the fleet is finished. 

Has Yara taken all the ships on the Iron Islands with her?

They might have paid the iron price for a lot of them. Captured merchant ships, ships from minor houses in the Riverlands. They'd only need adjustments. That was done a lot in the late Middle Ages, during the French-English wars for example.

The number 1.000 might be an exaggeration in the first place. Medieval / early modern age navies contained no more than 250 ships when they were considered very large. I just looked up the numbers for the battle of Lepanto and the Spanish Armada. They had less.

Euron's own ship, the Silence is special. It's much larger than any ship in Yara's fleet. In the books, Euron dabbled in magic during his journeys. We might see something about this in S08.


- How did he manage to find Yara's fleet in the middle of the ocean in the middle of the night? Even with a spy at Dragonstone this would be nigh impossible.

If they knew the route Yara would take, it could be done. My money is on a spy in Dragonstone.


- How did he know that the remainder of the Targaryen-fleet had sailed to Casterly Rock, and how did he manage to show up exactly after the battle had commenced?

He divided his fleet from the beginning? They guessed or knew that Tyrion wanted to attack CR while Yara was sailing to Dorne. Euron didn't have to be personally there. A part of his fleet was enough to burn or capture those ships which weren't meant for sea battle but for troop transport.


- Why is he so loyal to Cersei that he would do all the above things and continue to plot to backstab Team Dany when they're trying to save the entire realm? She has done nothing to earn neither his loyalty or his trust, quite the opposite in fact. If he ends up handing over the Golden Company to her, no questions asked I'm gonna be pissed. (Don't think this will happen actually.)

He knows that Cersei needs him. She'll have to agree to marry him at some point. He's gambling on that. 


- Why would he antagonize Jamie the way he does? I admit that it made me chuckle, but from a logical standpoint, antagonizing the brother of the woman you want to marry, and the general of the armed forces to the house you want to marry into seems ...counter-productive to say the least.

Because he could and he enjoyed it, lol. Cersei needs him. 
 

I agree that it's not very well explained in S07 but I hope there will be something revealed about Euron yet. He seems to be one of the major endgame players in the books and those show up in the show too. One way or another.

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31 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

At this point I believe Cersei could win a war against Dany by simply copying the Dornish strategy. Dany's entire commanding staff is so unbelievable weak. The only problem is ... Cersei only plays the political board and she needs to keep her generals alive. Dany is so incredible bad, there is not even a court not speaking of pre-Aegon-conquest sworn houses like Velaryon at her side.

She does not even care about loyal regions directly sworn to her father like ... Cracklaw Point. She doesn't give a single fuck about anything but her titles  ... or Jon.

I believe she deserves a crowning Viserys style.

Saying she doesn't care about anything but her crown is silly and is not justified by what the show has shown us. 

Just a few examples off of the top of my head:

- Season 3 when she is visibly upset at how the slaves are being treated and goes and gives one a sip of water. 

- Season 4 when her advisors suggest now is the time to go to Westeros and attack King's Landing. She decides not to.

- Season 5 she decided to double down on Mereern by marrying a local nobleman in order to bring peace to the city.

- Season 7 she decided not to attack King's Landing despite all her allies telling her to strike because she didn't want to burn the city to the ground. 

Criticize Dany for a lot of things, but to suggest she only cares about her crown is just not supported by the story the show is telling (or the books for that matter). 

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55 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

Saying she doesn't care about anything but her crown is silly and is not justified by what the show has shown us. 

Just a few examples off of the top of my head:

- Season 7 she decided not to attack King's Landing despite all her allies telling her to strike because she didn't want to burn the city to the ground. 

Criticize Dany for a lot of things, but to suggest she only cares about her crown is just not supported by the story the show is telling (or the books for that matter). 

You are right, although I explicitly only mean season 7 Dany. And yes, she does care about KL. And I believe her that this is her thought and not her advisors'.  

But she must have a greater plan. And that is what I mean when I say she doesn't care. There is no evidence for a diplomatic plan, no evidence for anything other than using the Unsullied to take CR. What was the plan for the Reach armies, for the dornish armies, for the Ironborn once they have escorted Olenna back ? Is there anything the Dothraki should do ? Maybe wait for an enemy army to move a large distance over land and then intercept the army ? 

Why is the Vale ignored ? Can't she meet with Sweetrobin ? With Littlefinger ? Why not take a Dragon and make a visit in the North. Everybody important seems to be in Winterfell. Is she still on the "they killed my father they must all burn" trip ? How about blocking the Blackwater or any important bridge ? Or any action that brings her control over movement ? 

How about a visit to Oldtown ? Or Rosby ? The Dragons seem to be fast enough for Jon Snow across the wall. Yes I know she is not allowed to move. Tyrion forbids it. Well then Tyrion ... how about a visit to Sweetrobin ? Oh right. Maybe not. What's the longterm plan if the hand can't visit the boy because he fears to fly ? What's the longterm plan with the Lannisters ? Conquer them all ? Well then, if that is the plan, why not start now ? And if that is not the plan, why not enacting another plan ?

 

It's almost as if Tyrion and Dany together suffer from depression.

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21 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

You are right, although I explicitly only mean season 7 Dany. And yes, she does care about KL. And I believe her that this is her thought and not her advisors'.  

But she must have a greater plan. And that is what I mean when I say she doesn't care. There is no evidence for a diplomatic plan, no evidence for anything other than using the Unsullied to take CR. What was the plan for the Reach armies, for the dornish armies, for the Ironborn once they have escorted Olenna back ? Is there anything the Dothraki should do ? Maybe wait for an enemy army to move a large distance over land and then intercept the army ? 

Why is the Vale ignored ? Can't she meet with Sweetrobin ? With Littlefinger ? Why not take a Dragon and make a visit in the North. Everybody important seems to be in Winterfell. Is she still on the "they killed my father they must all burn" trip ? How about blocking the Blackwater or any important bridge ? Or any action that brings her control over movement ? 

How about a visit to Oldtown ? Or Rosby ? The Dragons seem to be fast enough for Jon Snow across the wall. Yes I know she is not allowed to move. Tyrion forbids it. Well then Tyrion ... how about a visit to Sweetrobin ? Oh right. Maybe not. What's the longterm plan if the hand can't visit the boy because he fears to fly ? What's the longterm plan with the Lannisters ? Conquer them all ? Well then, if that is the plan, why not start now ? And if that is not the plan, why not enacting another plan ?

 

It's almost as if Tyrion and Dany together suffer from depression.

Wasn't her "greater plan" to use the Reach and Dornish armies to blockade King's Landing?  She didn't want to use the Dothraki at first as Tyrion correctly predicted (one of the only times lol) that Cersei would turn the lords of the Seven Kingdoms against her if she used primarily Dothraki and Unsullied foreign troops to take King's Landing.  Hence the plan to use the Reach and Dornish armies.  

I'm not really understanding what you want Dany to do re: the Vale and Oldtown.  The Vale is firmly sided with Jon/Sansa so it's repetitive and pointless for Dany to go after Sweetrobin when she can just go after Jon Snow.  Oldtown- what purpose would visiting them serve?  From the show's version of Oldtown, it's just a bunch of old men playing librarians with no military power behind them.  

 

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44 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

You are right, although I explicitly only mean season 7 Dany. And yes, she does care about KL. And I believe her that this is her thought and not her advisors'.  

But she must have a greater plan. And that is what I mean when I say she doesn't care. There is no evidence for a diplomatic plan, no evidence for anything other than using the Unsullied to take CR. What was the plan for the Reach armies, for the dornish armies, for the Ironborn once they have escorted Olenna back ? Is there anything the Dothraki should do ? Maybe wait for an enemy army to move a large distance over land and then intercept the army ? 

Their plan was to have the Reach- and Dorne-armies lay siege to Kings Landing.
The Unsullied as you say, would take Casterly Rock.
The Greyjoys act as a ferries. What they would do after they've ferried around the armies is anyone's guess, perhaps blockade the harbour of Kings Landing?
Her Dothraki where probably meant to be kept in reserve, perhaps to combat a potential threat that they couldn't foresee? They got a new mission after she lost her Westerosi Allies though.

Honestly, Tyrion and Dany's plan was not that bad during the circumstances in episode 1. They didn't know about the AotD so they could focus solely on Cersei. Their plan would've worked too, if not for Deus-Ex-Euron.

Why is the Vale ignored ? Can't she meet with Sweetrobin ? With Littlefinger ? Why not take a Dragon and make a visit in the North. Everybody important seems to be in Winterfell. Is she still on the "they killed my father they must all burn" trip ? How about blocking the Blackwater or any important bridge ? Or any action that brings her control over movement ? 

Her goal was Kings Landing. Her enemies where those loyal to Cersei.
The North and the Vale are enemies of the crown and far away from King's Landing. They weren't hostile to her, and before she lost her Westerosi allies she didn't really need either of them. However, she does summon Jon in episode 2, before she lost all of her other allies, so she does make an attempt to gain more allies in Westeros.

How about a visit to Oldtown ? Or Rosby ? The Dragons seem to be fast enough for Jon Snow across the wall. Yes I know she is not allowed to move. Tyrion forbids it. Well then Tyrion ... how about a visit to Sweetrobin ? Oh right. Maybe not. What's the longterm plan if the hand can't visit the boy because he fears to fly ? What's the longterm plan with the Lannisters ? Conquer them all ? Well then, if that is the plan, why not start now ? And if that is not the plan, why not enacting another plan ?

But why would she visit those places? She didn't need more allies until episode 3, and she doesn't know if they will be loyal to her or not. Better to focus on the allies she had (until episode 3 that is) and the task at hand.

The longterm plan with the Lannisters is probably the same as with most houses: Make them bend the knee to her or destroy them and replace them with someone loyal. Killing Cersei and Jamie would make Tyrion the head of House Lannister. 

It's almost as if Tyrion and Dany together suffer from depression.

Tyrion actually put spokes in the wheels for Dany by restraining her to the extent that she did very little for the majority of the season. It's not until the very end of episode 4 where she actually stops listening to him and starts getting her hands dirty - and that's when she had her first victory in the war as well. Tyrion technically betrayed Dany this season, by putting his own interest (saving his family) before hers (making sure she wins the war quickly and efficiently.)

Comments in bold.

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1 hour ago, MinscS2 said:

Comments in bold.

Yea. It does feel like the big failure was an intelligence/ lack of imagination failure.

- failure to know/ imagine the threat posed by Euron 

- failure to know about the troop movements away from Casterly Rock

- failure to know that the Reach lords had been in KL and defected. 

Had they known about the first the answer was simple. Sail during the day with dragon cover. 

Had they known about the second or third the answer again was simple. Send the unsullied to reinforce Highgarden and send the dothraki at the same time to trap the Lannister/ Tarly/ lesser Reach lords forces. 

Varys was a total failure this year as a spy master and had zero actionable intelligence from KL. 

In honor of Dario, it can be said that a spy master with no spy network isn't a spy master at all

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22 hours ago, darmody said:

Ignoring the fact that you're pulling this out of thin air, the "black guard" Cersei organized when, exactly?

That's a very good question. What do you think, when?

Quote

When Tommen was king and she was under house arrest in the Red Keep? 

I think, yes, that's exactly when.

From the moment when Tommen betrayed her, by forbidding further practise of trial by combat, she started preparation for overthrowing him.

She had Quiburn, and his web of spies, and the Mountain, and probably many others ready to serve to her. Even while she was secluded in Red Keep, the Mountain was freely walking all over King's Landing, killing those who gossiped about Cersei. So even during her house arrest she had longer hands than you think.

Do you really think that her plan was limited only to burning Great Sept? And then WHAT???

If you think that my assumptions are wrong, then how do you think Cersei was going to deal with aftermath of her crimes, all of her crimes? How she was going to avoid Tommen's punnishment for killing Margaery? Or you think that she was 100% sure that after Margaery's death Tommen will commit suicide, she counted on this, and thus she wasn't afraid of any repercussions from him?

Tommen's suicide, or even his death, wasn't part of Cersei's plan. 

I think that Cersei created Queen's Blackguards before her trial, to deal with King Tommen, and others, after first part of her plan (burning Sept) will be executed. Those that were loyal to King Tomment were killed by the Mountain and Blackguards, even before the Sept exploded. Then Cersei ordered the Mountain to keep Tommen in his room until trial will be ended.

Where do you think was his personal guards, those that were supposed to escort him to his mother's trial? And how did the Mountain appeared in his chambers? What orders were given to him by Cersei?

If Tommen's death was part of her plan, she would've ordered Mountain to kill Tommen, for example by throwing him out of the window, and staging his death as suicide. But she haven't done so. On the contrary, she haven't thought that Tommen may commit suicide. Otherwise she would've put him under servants' watch 24/7.

His death was sudden to her, but she wasn't grieving much. First of all, because of his betrayal. But there's also other reason - he was an extra child. Joffrey was her favourite child, her firstborn, her Prince. Mircella was her little Princess, her sweet innocent angel. And Tomen was just an extra. {For everyone, not only Cersei. No one ever thought much about him. No one ever thought that one day he will become King. Before Joffrey died, he was always abusing Tommen. And no one cared enough about Tommen to stop this, even Cersei, she didn't even knew.} <- I'm basing this on Tommen's conversation with Margaery, when she sneaked at night in his bedroom, shortly prior their engagement was decided.

And I'm not pulling this out of thin air - there is basis, shown in GOT, for my logical assumptions.

Cersei's original plan was, after killing everyone in the Sept, to officially announce to people of 7K's that King Tommen is in mourning, because of death of his young wife Queen Margaery. He's stricken by grief, and can't rule, thus he appointed his mother Dowager Queen Cersei to act as his Regent in 7K, and sit on Iron Throne in his stead. Meanwhile she was going to keep Tommen isolated in his chambers in Red Keep, forever if needed. For this part of plan to work, she needed to replace Tommen's Kingsguards with her Blackguards beforehand. Replacement was done during trial. While everyone's attention was diverted by events happening in Baelor's Sept, Cersei executed her coup d'etat in Red Keep. Aside from Tommen's suicide, her plan to become ruler of 7K went flawlessly.

There's an evidence that proves that my assumptions about timeframe and plan of Cersei's coup d'etat are correct. She was crowned on the day of trial, on the same day Sept exploded. She already had her Blackguards by that point, furthermore they already gathered people to witness her coronation. Though in her original plan they were supposed to witness Cersei's becoming King's Regent. When Tommen forbade trial by combat, Cersei sent message to Jaime. Jaime immidiately went back to KL. Trial was in the morning, and by the time Jaime arrived to KL, it was already early evening. When Jaime and Bronn were approaching KL, ruins of Baelor's Sept were still burning. And Cersei's Blackguards and witnesses were already in Red Keep throne room watching her coronation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt1ltM-z2qs

On 18.09.2017 at 1:04 AM, darmody said:

On the other hand, Cersei couldn't make a move until after the Sept was blown and Tommen was dead.

This video proves that she was crowned ON THE SAME DAY when the Sept was blown and Tommen was dead. So if she started her preparation only AFTER Tommen's death, then she created Blackguards and gathered witnesses for her coronation in less than ONE DAY. <- impossible.

You may argue that even though Sept's ruins are still burning during scene of Jaime's return, it doesn't prove that Jaime arrived to KL on the day of explosion, it's possible that the ruins were still burning for several days after explosion. And thus Cersei was crowned not on the same day when Tommen died.

Then how can you explain, that if she wasn't prepared for consequences of her actions beforehand, how was she able to control people for those several days after Tommen's death prior her coronation? How was she able to prevent rebellion, if she hasn't prepared beforehand?

Your thoughts?

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On 18.09.2017 at 1:46 AM, Beardy the Wildling said:

Story doesn't have to focus on it, but a throwaway line showing what the Dornish are up to

Seems that you don't understand logistics and inner works of making a tv-show.

So D&D should relocate hundreds of filming crew people, and tons of equipment, to Seville in Spain, and cast new actors, just to film several minutes of what is happening in Dorne after Sands' death, only because otherwise viewers won't understand what is happening, because everything should be shown on screen, and everything should be explained?

Further events happening in Dorne are absolutely irrelevant to what is happening in S7. So there's no point in wasting limited screen time and money, on filming what is not necessary.

This throwaway line of yours will cost hundreds of thousands $, unless those few scenes will be filmed on D&D's cell phone, where several local random Spaniards will pose as Dornishmen. How about that? ^_^

On 18.09.2017 at 2:58 AM, jcmontea said:

Every work of art is like that. More so visual art that is restricted by time and the need to keep people captivated and entertained. 

If GoT is asking you to make assumptions your not comfortable making or asking you to make them on too many questions than it just might not be the show for you. 

:agree:

Quote

Personally speaking, the show provides me with enough emotionally satisfying moments and story bears that i am willing to fill in blanks that need to be filled or overlook things i find highly implausible (Euron and your 1000 new ships I am looking at you). 

During Second Persian invasion, Battle of Salamis, that happened in 480 BC, the Persian fleet numbered 1,207 triremes - the standard oared warship of the time.

But even though Greeks had less than 400 ships, while their enemies had over 1,000, Greeks still won.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Salamis

Events described in ASOIAF are happening in Medieval times. So if in real world ancient fleet created nearly 2,500 years ago numbered more than 1,000 ships, then it is possible that Euron and his people build 1,000 ships for their Medieval Iron fleet. Number of ships are plausible. And time frame for their creation are not specified in GOT. From the moment Euron was crowned, until his arrival to KL, probably months passed. Also even though he's claiming that he has 1,000 ships, it's still possible that he's either exaggerating, or his fleet is still currently in the process of making. Maybe now he has several hundreds, and his people left on Iron Islands are still working on making more ships to fulfill their 1,000 ships quota.

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22 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Seems that you don't understand logistics and inner works of making a tv-show.

So D&D should relocate hundreds of filming crew people, and tons of equipment, to Seville in Spain, and cast new actors, just to film several minutes of what is happening in Dorne after Sands' death, only because otherwise viewers won't understand what is happening, because everything should be shown on screen, and everything should be explained?

Further events happening in Dorne are absolutely irrelevant to what is happening in S7. So there's no point in wasting limited screen time and money, on filming what is not necessary.

This throwaway line of yours will cost hundreds of thousands $, unless those few scenes will be filmed on D&D's cell phone, where several local random Spaniards will pose as Dornishmen. How about that? ^_^

:agree:

A throwaway line doesn't need to move the scene to a set for Dorne. Literally just Varys, doing his job as a spymaster (which he was fucking useless at this season) and reporting something like 'Hey, the Dornishmen are like, totally demoralised after the capture of the Sand Sneks, guess that alliance fucked up lol'. Seriously, a throwaway line would have killed two birds with one stone: Made use of Conleth Hill and show that D & D remember Varys is supposed to be a fucking spymaster, and be a little more consistent in acknowledging the world around the actors.

So no, I don't want them to pay a bunch of money for Seville. I said 'throwaway line' because I was implying it'd be cheap to make happen, at least relative to the money being spent. I'd appreciate you not being a smarmy bastard.

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17 hours ago, darmody said:

Whatever Stannis' initial position, he came within a hair's breadth of taking King's Landing, and he was there to press his claim based on Joffrey's illegitimacy. 

Had Stannis not assassinated Renly, Renly likely would've taken King's Landing, and there's no doubt in my mind he would've used Joffrey's illegitimacy as justification. 

Rob was already at war with the Lannisters, and he was acclaimed King of the North for a variety of reasons. One of which no doubt was Joffrey's illegitimacy. 

The War of Five Kings started for many reasons. It wasn't Joffrey's illegitimacy alone. But the fight with Stannis, at least, was mainly caused by it. And that was a large enough conflict to call a war. 

No Stannis' initial position absolutely matters. Nothing Stannis did by himself creates a war that large. The Stark and Lannister conflict? Absolutely. Renly going into business for himself and courting the largest army in the kingdom while he had the most secure location in the series. That could. Those two instances dragged the Westerlands, North, Riverlands, Stormlands, and Reach into the conflict. That's 5/8ths of the kingdom. Stannis had no plays whatsoever if the rest of the conflict didn't play out like it did. Hence why he was holed up in Dragonstone for the entire first book/season. Like Balon, he saw his opening when the conflict started. 

So no the breath of the war of the 5 kings had more to do with two instances where Joffrey's legitimacy as an heir was not in question. The secret of it indirectly spurned it, but nobody relevant at the outset of the war was contesting it. Renly and Robb never did. And those were the two sides that were more threatening to Joffrey's claim on the seven kingdoms. Renly was already trying to undermine Cersei and Renly started amassing strength well before Ned's letters went out. He never cared about it. He would have done it with or without it. It's not something you can prove. Robb cared more about his father and sisters being captured and the North not bowing to Lannister's. If a paternity test came out and proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Joffrey were Robert's son, Renly and Robb still would have done what they did. Balon too. Only Stannis would have given up. 

And Stannis had nothing until he killed Renly.

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21 hours ago, Jabul said:

3. So? If they neither love her nor hate her, trust her nor distrust her, respect her or disrespect her, then there is no reason why at least some lords wouldn't send representatives to talk to her.

There is a reason. Cersei is their Queen. So any communication with Daenerys is a treason. By sending any envoys to Dany they are acknowledging her as a Queen. So they can't do this, unless they are ready to rebell against Cersei.

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21 hours ago, darmody said:

Remember, she was under house arrest, Jaime was out of town, Tommen was king, the Kingsguard were loyal to him, and I don't even know if the City Watch was operational. Doesn't matter, because it was literally Cersei, Qyburn, Zombie Mountain, and the little kids on Team Cersei. That's it. 

1 Who and 2 when seized septa Unella?

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13 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Him getting so many ships so quickly and him being at the right place right time twice. Was so weird how succesful he was that it does feel like there is either a traitor in Dany's camp or a little bird hanging out in dragonstone.

Or maybe Euron has a spy amongst Yara's people. The most obvious option is often the right answer.

12 hours ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

1. I mean, he kills Dany's ironborn fleet by magically knowing where they are and teleporting to them,

2. then somehow teleports his navy across the bloody continent

3. to lock the Unsullied in Casterly Rock (which turns out to have no effect anyway, as they show up in KL none the worse).

1. His spy informed him where are they intending to go, even before departure of Sands and Yara from Dragonstone. Thus, immidiately after receiving news about their whereabouts, and where and when are they going to sail, he went to that place and intercepted them. He didn't teleported there, he went there ahead of them, and set a trap on their way.

2. He has split his fleet and part of it sent to Casterly Rock. Also beforehand.

Dany, Tyrion, Yara, Sands and Olenna discussed their plans in E2, then this plans were reported to Euron. So he sent part of his fleet to deal with  Unsullied, and knowing where Yara and Theon will be, he chose to go after them and personally intercept Sands on their way to Dorne. Because he also planned to bring Sand Mom as a present to Cersei.

3. Euron burned Dany's fleet, so Unsullied were unable to go back the way they came. So instead they had to go on foot, and march thru entire Reach. And there's no food left, because Lannisters and Tarly's took everything with them. Thus after Dany cleared exit for them, and transported food and other supplies to them by land, they were able to march towards King's Landing.

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46 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Or maybe Euron has a spy amongst Yara's people. The most obvious option is often the right answer.

1. His spy informed him where are they intending to go, even before departure of Sands and Yara from Dragonstone. Thus, immidiately after receiving news about their whereabouts, and where and when are they going to sail, he went to that place and intercepted them. He didn't teleported there, he went there ahead of them, and set a trap on their way.

2. He has split his fleet and part of it sent to Casterly Rock. Also beforehand.

Dany, Tyrion, Yara, Sands and Olenna discussed their plans in E2, then this plans were reported to Euron. So he sent part of his fleet to deal with  Unsullied, and knowing where Yara and Theon will be, he chose to go after them and personally intercept Sands on their way to Dorne. Because he also planned to bring Sand Mom as a present to Cersei.

3. Euron burned Dany's fleet, so Unsullied were unable to go back the way they came. So instead they had to go on foot, and march thru entire Reach. And there's no food left, because Lannisters and Tarly's took everything with them. Thus after Dany cleared exit for them, and transported food and other supplies to them by land, they were able to march towards King's Landing.

Good idea on the spy in Yara's camp

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