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Tyrion1991

(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

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18 hours ago, jcmontea said:

...

Varys was a total failure this year as a spy master and had zero actionable intelligence from KL. 

...

Absolutely. The former Spider is now the Castrated Flea. The man's ability to gather useful information is on a par with his reproductive ability. 

6 hours ago, darmody said:

Cersei's horror movie gang, which for convenience's sake I'll call the Monster Squad, were the trick? Qyburn, the creepy Mad Scientist no one but Cersei listened to, a bunch of waifs, and Ser Zombie organized factions of the Kingsguard and Gold Cloaks loyal to Cersei into the Black Guard? When the entirety of the nobility and the new power in town, the Faith Militant, actively opposed her. When everyone, including the crafty Olestra, thought she had no friends and her back was against the wall. No one sniffed out that she was actually Tom Cruise in Valkyrie, setting things up so she could seize power in an emergency.

...

I would have loved to see Zombie Mountain recruiting people, admittedly. 

Ser Goldenarmor, Head of the City Watch: You wanted to see me, Ser...um...is it still Clegane? No, wait, your name is Strong, or something...Who or what are you, and what do you want? 

Zombie Mountain: [looks at him silently]

Ser Goldenarmor: You drive a hard bargain, but I agree. I pledge my sword to your queen, in the event she commits the worst terror attack in hundreds of years. 

Zombie Mountain: [looks at him silently again, then turns and clomps away]

 

Maybe they would've spiced him up for that scene. Had him say "Grrr," or something. 

Right on the money. "Monster Squad." I like it. If I use it in future posts, I'll be sure to give you credit. 

"Zombie Mountain" is pretty good too. There is so much stuff that is just not within the bounds of believability. Why would so many high lords, lesser lords, maesters, etc. find the current "leadership" of King's Landing acceptable? In the episode entitled "Oathbreaker," we had this exchange:

CERSEI: And seeing as you cannot make us leave, we best get on with it.

KEVAN: No, we cannot make you leave. And you cannot make us stay. Not unless you're gonna have that thing murder us all.

Maybe Lord Kevan should have become king. He, at least, has some perception of the way things are going. 

6 hours ago, darmody said:

Impossible, yes. That about sums up Cersei's rule. 

...

On the money again. One couldn't ask for a better summary. 

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9 minutes ago, Megorova said:

6 months is roughly 180 days, or 25 weeks. To build 1,000 ships in that time span they had to finish 40 ships each week. Iron Islands have 15,000 fighters, and total population is 1,5 millions.

https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/the-population-of-the-seven-kingdoms/

Other sources say that Iron Islands population may be 100,000-700,000 people.

Let's take midle number - 350,000. Out of those people at least 100,000 worked at creating new Iron Fleet. 50,000 were preparing wood, making spare parts and nails, ropes and weaving sails. And other 50,000 were building ships.

50,000 people have built 1,000 ships in 25 weeks. Which means that in 25 weeks each group of 50 people needed to build only ONE SHIP.

180 days to build one ship made by 50 shipbuilders + another 50 people of various assistants and suppliers. Each crew of 100 people in span of 180 days have build their own ship. Thus out of 350,000 of Iron Island population every 3rd participated in creation of Iron Fleet, and every 7th was a shipbuilder.

Or let's take even smaller numbers, for example those 15,000 fighters from first Iron Fleet prior Euron's return. Out of them every third worked as shipbuilder, so in this case we have 5,000 people that have to build 1,000 ships in 25 weeks.

Let's take same number - 50 shipbuilders + another 50 people of various assistants and suppliers to build one ship. Thus they have 50 separate crews - 5,000 : (50+50).

Each crew will have to build 1,000 ships : 50 crews = 20 ships in span of 180 days.

9 days to build one ship made by 100 people. In 9 days 50 crews of 100 people will build 50 ships. And in 180 days they can build their quota of 1,000 ships.

Have you ever watched show Extreme Makeover: Home Edition? They build new house from scratch in span of 7 days.

And a house has a much more complex structure than a ship. Plumbing, connection to sewerage, connection to gas pipelines, electrical wiring, phone line, Internet and other cables, central heating system, air conditioning network, air vents, electrical outlets, light fixtures, sinks, toilets, showers, baths, garage, kitchen, various bedrooms each with individual design that will suit certain family member, different wallpapers or paint for each room, tiles, wooden floors, decorative molding for ceiling, windows with blinds or curtains, furniture and other elements of interior design.

Also they work with different materials like glass, concrete, wood, plywood, plastic, ceramic, and veriety of complex synthetic and chemical substances that need special treatment.

While ships are made with only four natural and simple materials - wood, iron nails, ropes, and sails.

According to Bible the Ark was build by crew of 4 people (Noah, Shem, Ham and Japheth) in span of 120 years, mentioned in Genesis 6:3. It's dimentions were 450 × 75 × 45 ft or 137 × 22.9 × 13.7 m, which is bigger than basic ship of Iron Fleet. 

It's stated in page of Iron Fleet that their ships are smaller than the war dromonds of mainland, and according to Wikipedia dromons 'The overall length of these ships was probably about 32 meters'. So they are 4 times smaller than Ark. Thus it will take only one person to build Iron Fleet's basic ship in span of 120 years, or 43,800 days. But 350,000 of ironborn can build nearly 8 ships per day, or 1,438 ships in span of 180 days.

According to some sources there are 1,5 million of ironborn, so they can build 6,164 ships in span of six months.

Persian Fleet in 480 BC numbered 1207 ships.

So 1,000 ships in Euron's Iron Fleet build in span of six months or even faster, is totally realistic and reasonable number and time frame.

Ships use 'roads' in seas. They don't just randomly sail wherever. Also Yara's fleet sailed from Dragonstone to Dorne, they didn't waivered into the middle of Narrow Sea, they were sailing close to eastern coast of Westeros. Euron knew their destination, so he used the same sea road as them. Though he went there before them and left small boats to patrol the road, and they informed him when Yara's fleet was approaching.

He himself wasn't there. He sent there part of his fleet. Also NOT from those ships that he took to King's Landing. He sent a raven to Iron Islands, and they sent ships to Casterly Rock from Iron Islands. They hid close to shore behind sea cliffs, and after they saw that Unsullied left their ships and went on shore, they sailed towards those ships and burned them.

He isn't loyal, he just pretends that he supports her, to make her relax in his presence, to stop seeing him as a possible threat. And then he will backstab her. Of course he will do that only after Cersei will grant him some official position in 7K's government.

Why not? They need him, so until he will become unneeded to them they can't punish him, or get rid of him. And he will off them before he will become useless to them.

Dude. I am impressed you tried to justify the the building a 1000 ships. 

The only thing missing in your analysis for me to roll with it is data around how long it took to build ships in medivel Europe.

If it actually took a group of 50 people 25 weeks to build one ship I am going with it. 

What you said about the sea lane makes sense, especially considering Euron was in King's Landing. With some advanced scouts he could have known they took off. 

Also, love your raven to the Iron Islands idea. The only problem i have with it is that it looked like we saw the Silence at Casterly Rock so I feel that implies he was there.

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23 hours ago, Zapho said:

My money is on a spy in Dragonstone.

And my money is on a Snitch amongst Yara's men.

He was always there. Furthermore he was loyal to Yara, to certain extent. Until better option appeared.

Before Euron's return ironborn didn't have any real choise, they could follow Old Pa Greyjoy, or female Grayjoy Yara, or castrated Greyjoy Theon. So they followed Yara. But when Euron returned, one quickthinker amongst Yara's people decided to use this opportunity as a way up in ranks. When he saw that Yara and Theon are escaping during Euron's coronation, he followed after them, or rather went WITH them. And after that he contacted Euron, and since then he was reporting to him about all events and plans in Yara's camp.

Those ironborn that were left on Dragonstone weren't missing Yara, furthermore they didn't cared about her promise to Daenerys not to assault coastal people. So they aren't a trustworthy people.

Also Snitch wasn't amongst those people that sailed to Casterly Rock, or to Dorne, thus the Snitch is currently on the same boat with Theon that sails FOR YARA!!!

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

*text*

Do you realize the amount of wood and cloth that would be needed for 1000 ships?  
You can try to rationalize it, but it would be impossible for them to build the amount of ships that fast with the technology that they have to their disposal. I haven't watched Extreme Home Makeover (?), but I assume that they use modern tools and building techniques and  not medieval ones. 

And as has already been pointed out, Euron's ship is seen both on the attack on Yaras fleet and later on the attack of the Unsullied-transports. Euron didn't split his armada.

Edit: I did some searching, and it took roughly 15 months for the shipwrights to build a single Caravel in the 15th and 16th century. Yeah there's no chance in hell that a team of ironborn would build a ship in 9 days. :rolleyes:

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10 minutes ago, Megorova said:

And my money is on a Snitch amongst Yara's men.

He was always there. Furthermore he was loyal to Yara, to certain extent. Until better option appeared.

Before Euron's return ironborn didn't have any real choise, they could follow Old Pa Greyjoy, or female Grayjoy Yara, or castrated Greyjoy Theon. So they followed Yara. But when Euron returned, one quickthinker amongst Yara's people decided to use this opportunity as a way up in ranks. When he saw that Yara and Theon are escaping during Euron's coronation, he followed after them, or rather went WITH them. And after that he contacted Euron, and since then he was reporting to him about all events and plans in Yara's camp.

Those ironborn that were left on Dragonstone weren't missing Yara, furthermore they didn't cared about her promise to Daenerys not to assault coastal people. So they aren't a trustworthy people.

Also Snitch wasn't amongst those people that sailed to Casterly Rock, or to Dorne, thus the Snitch is currently on the same boat with Theon that sails FOR YARA!!!

While I'd love this to be true, and maybe D & D will take the option fans have given them (and they're too stupid to come up with themselves) and go with the 'spy in Yara's ranks' excuse, but I hardly expect this level of characterisation. The spy'll probably be fleshed out with 'Euron talks about his big cock a lot, so I like him'.

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On 9/17/2017 at 6:58 PM, jcmontea said:

The question is does the show provide an emotionally rich and satisfying experience enough to where an audience member either won't think too hard about something or is fine filling in the blanks. 

Does it make sense that Luke is sadder at losing Obi Wan a guy he knew for a week at best than Leia is at losing her entire planet and family that she knew for her entire life? If you think about it its pretty stupid that that should be the case. Either that makes the story ridiculous or you just assume that she grieved off screen and get on with it. 

Every work of art is like that. More so visual art that is restricted by time and the need to keep people captivated and entertained. 

If GoT is asking you to make assumptions your not comfortable making or asking you to make them on too many questions than it just might not be the show for you. 

...

You make some good points. I can only respond for myself, not for Beardy the Wildling and others who find things in Game of Thrones unacceptable. 

I am a longtime reader of fantasy and science fiction. I also watch f&sf movies and TV shows. I like GoT. Averaging things out over 7 seasons, I'd say it is better than Star Wars (fantasy with robots and spaceships) and most of Star Trek (basically science fiction). It's often comparable in quality to the Lord of the Rings movies (fantasy). There is much to admire in the HBO series--good acting, engaging scenery and special effects, etc. The dialogue is mostly good, sometimes very good. However, I have certain standards when it comes to fantasy. That's why I started my first post on this thread with a quote from Ursula K. Le Guin, one of the best writers the genre has ever produced. Once you set the rules of your universe, you are required to follow them. The show runners of GoT fall down here. The quality of the writing has declined over time. Posters on this thread have given multiple examples. I'll provide one more: 

In "The Queen's Justice," Lady Olenna looks down from her balcony and sees an incredibly improbable army of unfriendly drones with lion banners approaching. Jaime and others are leading the mighty host. It took the leaders, what, two or three weeks to get from King's Landing to Olenna's castle? How the hell did this formerly intelligent woman manage to be taken by surprise? Even if surprised, why doesn't she get out of there and take her gold with her? Then we have the scene with the Kingslayer and the Queen of Thorns. Well acted, no doubt about that. However, it has a line that is an absolute howler. Olenna asks "Did we fight well?" 

WTF??? Was someone leading the defense? If so, who? Imagine that you are watching a movie about the history of Notre Dame football. At one point, Knute Rockne asks someone if his team played well against Army. That is beyond goofy. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jabul said:

You make some good points. I can only respond for myself, not for Beardy the Wildling and others who find things in Game of Thrones unacceptable. 

I am a longtime reader of fantasy and science fiction. I also watch f&sf movies and TV shows. I like GoT. Averaging things out over 7 seasons, I'd say it is better than Star Wars (fantasy with robots and spaceships) and most of Star Trek (basically science fiction). It's often comparable in quality to the Lord of the Rings movies (fantasy). There is much to admire in the HBO series--good acting, engaging scenery and special effects, etc. The dialogue is mostly good, sometimes very good. However, I have certain standards when it comes to fantasy. That's why I started my first post on this thread with a quote from Ursula K. Le Guin, one of the best writers the genre has ever produced. Once you set the rules of your universe, you are required to follow them. The show runners of GoT fall down here. The quality of the writing has declined over time. Posters on this thread have given multiple examples. I'll provide one more: 

In "The Queen's Justice," Lady Olenna looks down from her balcony and sees an incredibly improbable army of unfriendly drones with lion banners approaching. Jaime and others are leading the mighty host. It took the leaders, what, two or three weeks to get from King's Landing to Olenna's castle? How the hell did this formerly intelligent woman manage to be taken by surprise? Even if surprised, why doesn't she get out of there and take her gold with her? Then we have the scene with the Kingslayer and the Queen of Thorns. Well acted, no doubt about that. However, it has a line that is an absolute howler. Olenna asks "Did we fight well?" 

WTF??? Was someone leading the defense? If so, who? Imagine that you are watching a movie about the history of Notre Dame football. At one point, Knute Rockne asks someone if his team played well against Army. That is beyond goofy. 

 

Has the quality of the writing declined over time?  I disagree on that one to begin with.  Seasons 6 and 7 were much better than Season 5 (the low point of the show IMO) and I'd say comparable in quality to a lot of the earlier seasons.  

I think the Olenna/Highgarden stuff is explained pretty well and clearly in the show.  Olenna says herself the Tyrells were never fighters and their top military bannermen the Tarlys betrayed them.  Olenna has no reason to run and hide at this point- her house and land is finished and she has nothing left to live for.  That's what makes that final scene with her and Jamie all the better.  She just wants to die and take Cersei down with her by revealing the truth about Joffrey's death.  

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22 hours ago, SirArthur said:

There is no evidence for a diplomatic plan, no evidence for anything other than using the Unsullied to take CR. What was the plan for the Reach armies, for the dornish armies, for the Ironborn once they have escorted Olenna back ? Is there anything the Dothraki should do ? Maybe wait for an enemy army to move a large distance over land and then intercept the army ? 

Their Big Plan was discussed in E2. If it were successful, then by the end of it Dany was supposed to be crowned in KL. Script:

" OLEANNA: Then how do you mean to take the Iron Throne? By asking nicely?

DAENERYS: We will lay siege to the capital surrounding the city on all sides. Cersei will have the Iron Throne but no food for her army or the people.

TYRION: But we won't use Dothraki and Unsullied.

TYRION begins walking around the carved table of Westeros.

TYRION: Cersei will try to rally the lords of Westeros by appealing to their loyalty, their love for their country. If we besiege the city with foreigners, we prove her point. Our army should be Westerosi.

ELLIA: And I suppose we're providing the Westerosi?

TYRION: You are.

TYRION reaches down and picks up a figurine that resembles a Kraken in a longship.

TYRION: Lady Greyjoy will escort you home to Sunspear and her Iron Fleet will ferry the Dornish army back up to King's Landing.

TYRION walks to the south of the map and picks up a figurine that resembles a sun. He takes both figurines and places them at King's Landing.

TYRION: The Dornish will lay siege to the capital alongside the Tyrell army. Two great kingdoms united against Cersei.

OLENNA: So, your master plan is to use our armies? Forgive me for asking, but why did you bother to bring your own?

TYRION reaches down and picks up the figurine resembling an Unsullied helmet. He begins walking back around the map of Westeros.

TYRION: The unsullied will have another objective. For decades House Lannister has been the true power in Westeros. And the seat of that power is Casterly Rock. Grey Worm and the Unsullied will sail for the Rock and take it."

They planned to siege KL for as long as it will take KL's people from within city walls to rebel against Cersei, open city gates and give the crown to Dany.

But after Cersei robbed entire Reach, she has enough food to last for years, and Dany's people lost their means of transportation and their supplyers. They themself have no food now. So siege is pointless and impossible.

Unfortunately Dany didn't had Plan B, and later she was distracted by Jon's arrival, and his northern problems.

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25 minutes ago, Jabul said:

You make some good points. I can only respond for myself, not for Beardy the Wildling and others who find things in Game of Thrones unacceptable. 

I am a longtime reader of fantasy and science fiction. I also watch f&sf movies and TV shows. I like GoT. Averaging things out over 7 seasons, I'd say it is better than Star Wars (fantasy with robots and spaceships) and most of Star Trek (basically science fiction). It's often comparable in quality to the Lord of the Rings movies (fantasy). There is much to admire in the HBO series--good acting, engaging scenery and special effects, etc. The dialogue is mostly good, sometimes very good. However, I have certain standards when it comes to fantasy. That's why I started my first post on this thread with a quote from Ursula K. Le Guin, one of the best writers the genre has ever produced. Once you set the rules of your universe, you are required to follow them. The show runners of GoT fall down here. The quality of the writing has declined over time. Posters on this thread have given multiple examples. I'll provide one more: 

In "The Queen's Justice," Lady Olenna looks down from her balcony and sees an incredibly improbable army of unfriendly drones with lion banners approaching. Jaime and others are leading the mighty host. It took the leaders, what, two or three weeks to get from King's Landing to Olenna's castle? How the hell did this formerly intelligent woman manage to be taken by surprise? Even if surprised, why doesn't she get out of there and take her gold with her? Then we have the scene with the Kingslayer and the Queen of Thorns. Well acted, no doubt about that. However, it has a line that is an absolute howler. Olenna asks "Did we fight well?" 

WTF??? Was someone leading the defense? If so, who? Imagine that you are watching a movie about the history of Notre Dame football. At one point, Knute Rockne asks someone if his team played well against Army. That is beyond goofy. 

 

Honestly, I have to agree with you to an extent; I think Game of Thrones in its current state is as plausible as Star Wars. While I find Star Wars entertaining, I don't consider it 'deep', 'emmy-worthy', 'gritty', or even worthy of critical acclaim. It belongs into the fantasy genre ghetto, as it conforms to the things expected of genre ghettos. It is what it is, and that's absolutely fine.

I wouldn't be so ranty about Game of Thrones if it wasn't dressing itself up as something bigger and worthier of critical attention. The first few seasons established a world where characters were human, actions had consequences, and shit held up to a moderate level of scrutiny. My anger comes from the fact that it's fallen into the same kind of mindless, spectacle-ridden popcorn fluff that throws fantasy into its genre ghetto to begin with, but people are continuing to pretend (or are too emotionally pot-committed to accept otherwise) that it's somehow this amazing, emmy-worthy piece of brilliance and that D & D deserve all the accolades for riding off the coat-tails of GRRM then capitalising on the worst parts of his work and going 'LOOK AT HOW CREATIVE AND AWESOME WE ARE!'

Seriously, have a look at any 'Inside the Episode', and you'll see how superficial D & D's creative process is. They're nothing special. They're just regular TV writing hacks, dime a dozen, the very reason fantasy lives in the genre ghetto it does. If more people treated Game of Thrones as the schlock it is, I'd be fine, but the fact they pretend it's worthy of critical acclaim frustrates me.

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19 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Had they known about the first the answer was simple. Sail during the day with dragon cover. 

Had they known about the second or third the answer again was simple. Send the unsullied to reinforce Highgarden and send the dothraki at the same time to trap the Lannister/ Tarly/ lesser Reach lords forces. 

Varys was a total failure this year as a spy master and had zero actionable intelligence from KL. 

He lost his network, but he isn't even aware of it. Once he was bragging to Tyrion, in S6E3: "Men can be fickle but birds I always trust." At that point of time, his birds were already Cersei's birds. He's a fool. His "birds" are just kids. The way he bought them with candies and kindness, the same was successfully done by Quiburn. Furthermore he turned out to be even better master than Varys ever was. He ordered the Mountain to kill those who abused those kids, and he also provided them with medical treatment.

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6 minutes ago, Megorova said:

He lost his network, but he isn't even aware of it. Once he was bragging to Tyrion, in S6E3: "Men can be fickle but birds I always trust." At that point of time, his birds were already Cersei's birds. He's a fool. His "birds" are just kids. The way he bought them with candies and kindness, the same was successfully done by Quiburn. Furthermore he turned out to be even better master than Varys ever was. He ordered the Mountain to kill those who abused those kids, and he also provided them with medical treatment.

Which means, just like Littlefinger, Varys, allegedly one of the greatest schemers in Westeros, has been reduced to an idiot because, let's face it, D & D aren't smart enough to get into the headspace of a legitimately smart person.

With Qyburn it's easier to write him as a 'smart person'; just have him conform to stereotypical 'mad scientist' tropes and windowlickers go 'hurr, that mens hes smrat'. It's almost amusingly anticlimatic that he managed to win over all the little birds with fucking candied plums, but honestly, at least in that instance the show bothered to explain a plot point instead of leaving it to desperate honeypotters.

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29 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Their Big Plan was discussed in E2. If it were successful, then by the end of it Dany was supposed to be crowned in KL. Script:

" OLEANNA: Then how do you mean to take the Iron Throne? By asking nicely?

DAENERYS: We will lay siege to the capital surrounding the city on all sides. Cersei will have the Iron Throne but no food for her army or the people.

TYRION: But we won't use Dothraki and Unsullied.

TYRION begins walking around the carved table of Westeros.

TYRION: Cersei will try to rally the lords of Westeros by appealing to their loyalty, their love for their country. If we besiege the city with foreigners, we prove her point. Our army should be Westerosi.

ELLIA: And I suppose we're providing the Westerosi?

TYRION: You are.

TYRION reaches down and picks up a figurine that resembles a Kraken in a longship.

TYRION: Lady Greyjoy will escort you home to Sunspear and her Iron Fleet will ferry the Dornish army back up to King's Landing.

TYRION walks to the south of the map and picks up a figurine that resembles a sun. He takes both figurines and places them at King's Landing.

TYRION: The Dornish will lay siege to the capital alongside the Tyrell army. Two great kingdoms united against Cersei.

OLENNA: So, your master plan is to use our armies? Forgive me for asking, but why did you bother to bring your own?

TYRION reaches down and picks up the figurine resembling an Unsullied helmet. He begins walking back around the map of Westeros.

TYRION: The unsullied will have another objective. For decades House Lannister has been the true power in Westeros. And the seat of that power is Casterly Rock. Grey Worm and the Unsullied will sail for the Rock and take it."

They planned to siege KL for as long as it will take KL's people from within city walls to rebel against Cersei, open city gates and give the crown to Dany.

But after Cersei robbed entire Reach, she has enough food to last for years, and Dany's people lost their means of transportation and their supplyers. They themself have no food now. So siege is pointless and impossible.

Unfortunately Dany didn't had Plan B, and later she was distracted by Jon's arrival, and his northern problems.

At this juncture, is it clear what territory Dany actually holds? Her statements about "As soon as I march away, she marches back", and "half the country" make little sense if she doesn't have Dorne and the Reach. The North and Vale are currently allied, and at least in theory behind Jon. In the Westerlands the Unsullied took one major castle. I saw no indication that she has any significant presence in the Stormlands, or Riverlands. The Iron Islands are held by Euron. For now, does she acually control anything other than Dragonstone? I assume she has managed to annex chunks of territory ere and there but it sems very unclear. For all practical purposes it looks like Cersei still holds all the mainland other than the North and the Vale. When it comes to her armies, she has only the Unsullied and the Dothraki (who are marching North at her orders). What about the many lords in the areas she has conquered (if she has conquered any)? Why aren't they being ordered to call their banners and march North? It's all very confused. 

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33 minutes ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

Which means, just like Littlefinger, Varys, allegedly one of the greatest schemers in Westeros, has been reduced to an idiot because, let's face it, D & D aren't smart enough to get into the headspace of a legitimately smart person.

With Qyburn it's easier to write him as a 'smart person'; just have him conform to stereotypical 'mad scientist' tropes and windowlickers go 'hurr, that mens hes smrat'. It's almost amusingly anticlimatic that he managed to win over all the little birds with fucking candied plums, but honestly, at least in that instance the show bothered to explain a plot point instead of leaving it to desperate honeypotters.

I don't know if Varys is an idiot or if what is happening now negates everything that happened in the past. Additionally, sometimes someone can look like a genius because certain things worked out for him or her. Things worked out for Littlefinger in the beginning in part because his schemes were good and also in part because he got lucky. Why didn't Tyrion have him killed despite the fact that Littlefinger screwed him over? Luck or bad writing. 

At the end of the day, everyone left in this game is capable so someone capable will be outplayed. Also, people's luck runs out. Sometimes no matter how good the player the right cards don't come up. That is the whole idea of the show. At this level, power and position are highly tenuous. Everything is balanced on a knifes edge. Today's victory can easily set you up for tomorrow's defeat etc. 

That is why the theme song is  what it is. Its an alternating sequence of major notes minor notes that goes on and on because what is up today is down tomorrow, the game of thrones never ends, no one ever wins, the wheel is never truly broken. <Not to get off topic, but I think that in part will be a big part of the so-called bittersweet ending. The heros will win. Jon and Dany will likely co-rule. Maybe they make some changes to make the wheel less crushing for those on the bottom. But at the end of the day all that has happened is a continuation of the game of thrones. The Targaryens have been restored but we know that will not last because no one will hold on to power forever, Dany and Jon will die and some crazy descendent will take over and the game goes on and on.> 

Varys was outplayed because he was no longer present in King's Landing. His advantage - proximity - was negated and he didn't recognize how critical that was.

Also, there were supposed to be scenes with little birds this year that didn't make it in the season so i suspect control of the little birds is something that will come up in season 8. 

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14 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

At this juncture, is it clear what territory Dany actually holds? Her statements about "As soon as I march away, she marches back", and "half the country" make little sense if she doesn't have Dorne and the Reach. The North and Vale are currently allied, and at least in theory behind Jon. In the Westerlands the Unsullied took one major castle. I saw no indication that she has any significant presence in the Stormlands, or Riverlands. The Iron Islands are held by Euron. For now, does she acually control anything other than Dragonstone? I assume she has managed to annex chunks of territory ere and there but it sems very unclear. For all practical purposes it looks like Cersei still holds all the mainland other than the North and the Vale. When it comes to her armies, she has only the Unsullied and the Dothraki (who are marching North at her orders). What about the many lords in the areas she has conquered (if she has conquered any)? Why aren't they being ordered to call their banners and march North? It's all very confused. 

After she destroyed the western Lannister army she should have been in total control of the Reach and she controlled the roads to the Westerlands and Dorne. 

Although she gave that up with her army moving north so Cersei should be able to consolidate control of the South if the Golden Company actually shows up. 

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11 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

I don't know if Varys is an idiot or if what is happening now negates everything that happened in the past. Additionally, sometimes someone can look like a genius because certain things worked out for him or her. Things worked out for Littlefinger in the beginning in part because his schemes were good and also in part because he got lucky. Why didn't Tyrion have him killed despite the fact that Littlefinger screwed him over? Luck or bad writing. 

At the end of the day, everyone left in this game is capable so someone capable will be outplayed. Also, people's luck runs out. Sometimes no matter how good the hand the right cards don't come up.  

Varys was outplayed because he was no longer present in King's Landing. His advantage - proximity - was negated and he didn't recognize how critical that was. 

Hence why in the books (and I hate bringing up the books, because the show's failures should be an internal affair) Varys does return to KL, remains in control of his little birds, and even uses them to kill Kevan and Pycelle (they even handed his lines to Kevan to Qyburn... who says them to Pycelle), leaving Qyburn to get creative in gathering his info by... just talking to travelling smallfolk. Because Book!Varys, and thus Early Seasons!Varys actually had a brain.

Instead, they had Varys teleport from Meereen to Dorne to Meereen again, they made him go anywhere but where he could actually maintain his stranglehold on the information in King's Landing. Which is severely dumbing him down compared to both the books and the early seasons, because 'HURRR, WRITING SMART PEOPLE IS HARD WHEN YOU'RE NOT SMART'.

Doesn't help that in cutting out Aegon/Young Griff they made him look like a moronic, fickle schemer who's as 'chaotic' as the Laddah-seeking Littlefinger.

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Technically Cersei was pushed back to Kings Landing before Dany moves north. This is shown when the Dothraki and the Usullied can simply march up to the the edge of Kings Landing and just stand there. They might be in hostile territory, but there's no one to oppose them or attack them in the back.

I'm not sure if Dany actually "controls" The Reach, parts of the Westerlands and parts of the Crownlands by the end of season 7, but we know that Cersei doesn't, and since we don't get any info regarding houses and lords rebelling against Dany, we can assume that they are "under her control" (what that actually means is anyone's guess).

Now when Dany leaves, Cersei is free to "retake control" of pretty much everything again, but as with Dany, we don't really know what "control" really means, since the show doesn't depict the allegiances and thoughts of vassal lords and houses in the lands they conquer.
 

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2 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

Technically Cersei was pushed back to Kings Landing before Dany moves north. This is shown when the Dothraki and the Usullied can simply march up to the the edge of Kings Landing and just stand there. They might be in hostile territory, but there's no one to oppose them.

I'm not sure if Dany actually "controls" The Reach, parts of the Westerlands and parts of the Crownlands by the end of season 7, but we know that Cersei doesn't, and since we don't get any info regarding houses and lords rebelling against Dany, we can assume that they are "under her control" (what that actually means is anyone's guess).

Now when Dany leaves, Cersei is free to "retake control" of pretty much everything again, but as with Dany, we don't really know what "control" really means, since the show doesn't depict the allegiances and thoughts of vassal lords and houses in the lands they conquer.
 

good point. 

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18 minutes ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

Hence why in the books (and I hate bringing up the books, because the show's failures should be an internal affair) Varys does return to KL, remains in control of his little birds, and even uses them to kill Kevan and Pycelle (they even handed his lines to Kevan to Qyburn... who says them to Pycelle), leaving Qyburn to get creative in gathering his info by... just talking to travelling smallfolk. Because Book!Varys, and thus Early Seasons!Varys actually had a brain.

Instead, they had Varys teleport from Meereen to Dorne to Meereen again, they made him go anywhere but where he could actually maintain his stranglehold on the information in King's Landing. Which is severely dumbing him down compared to both the books and the early seasons, because 'HURRR, WRITING SMART PEOPLE IS HARD WHEN YOU'RE NOT SMART'.

Doesn't help that in cutting out Aegon/Young Griff they made him look like a moronic, fickle schemer who's as 'chaotic' as the Laddah-seeking Littlefinger.

Book Varys is not show Varys. Also, not sure how smart Book Varys is at the end of the day. Backing Aegon and risking Daenery's wrath seems like a move that is going to pay off spectacularly bad for him. While tactically going back to KL makes sense, strategically the decision to not be aligned 100% with Daenerys could prove costly and dumb in hindsight. Will have to see how it plays out. 

Show Varys misjudges the loyalty of the little birds and it is what it is. 

The reason why I am ok with it is because smart people do stupid things all the time in real life. So i can accept smart people misjudging situations. 

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1 minute ago, jcmontea said:

After she destroyed the western Lannister army she should have been in total control of the Reach and she controlled the roads to the Westerlands and Dorne. 

But in 7x06 she is still complaining about about losing Dorne and Highgarden. How much of the Lannister army was destroyed? The loot train battle was quite close to Kingslanding from what I can gather (Jaime showed up in nearly the same state at the Red Keep and told Cersei that he "just saw the Dothraki fight"). Oldtown (main city I gather) is in the Reach and the way the citadel Maesters are speaking of things in 7x05 does not make it look like Dany is queen there yet. We don't know what parts of the Lannister army are where. Who even controls Dorne any longer? The paramount house Martell has been eliminated in toto. Does that mean that for now it is directlly under the Iron Throne?  And who controls the Reach? House Hightower should be a good candidate to be raised to paramount status but has never been mentioned in the show. Did it say anywhere in the show that she has control of all road to the Westerlands? I may have missed that. That would require her to have a heavy Riverland presence. The Reach is the most populous area, so why isn't she calling the banners there rather than moving the unsullied and Dothraki North? I think they simply didn't consider the variables or numbers properly.

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14 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

Book Varys is not show Varys. 

Show Varys misjudges the loyalty of the little birds and it is what it is. 

The reason why I am ok with it is because smart people do stupid things all the time in real life. So i can accept smart people misjudging situations. 

That's why I said I hate bringing up the books, but it just goes to show what an actually smart Varys would do; ensure his control over KL information is as tight as ever. Also, completely failing to do any spywork outside of reading over Jon's emails for 'anything good' is not just a regular misjudgment a smart person is capable of making from time to time. It's a complete failure to do one's supposed job. As someone else here put it, he brought no actionable information to the table.

Show!Varys received a lobotomy with the teleportation device he used to get from Meereen to Dorne to Meereen so fast.

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