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What was Mance's original plan?


DominusNovus

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On ‎9‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 6:41 PM, Kytheros said:

The Others have been more active in recent years than they had been previously, per Craster/his wives.

I think the Others have been growing more active since before Mance left the Watch.

In addition, it would've taken a lot of time for Mance to gather the wildlings and convince them all to follow him.

 

On ‎9‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 7:41 PM, kissdbyfire said:

I agree. 

Mormont tells Tyrion that WWs were seen near Eastwatch, and that's early on in AGoT. And although we can't know exactly when Mance and the wildlings opened all those graves, we only hear about it in ASoS. 

Well, let's look at it this way:

When did Mance leave the watch? He was still a watchman on his first visit to Winterfell when Jon was just a boy. This had to be some time before 288 because he was with Lord Qorgyle at the time, and probably no earlier than 286 because Jon and Robb have to be old enough to pile a "great mountain" of snow above the gate at Winterfell.

Sometime after that, Mance quit the NW and started gathering the free folk, so this could have been as early as 289 or 290, a good 10 years before the events of the book. We know he then spent "years" trying to unite the clans and at some point started opening crypts looking for the horn. There is no text whatsoever that definitively states when the Others first reappeared, but I think it's a safe bet that the encounter in the GoT prologue is not the first time they came across humans.

So if Mance's despoiling of the crypts did have something to do with the Others' reappearance -- either by releasing them somehow or causing some disturbance that made them come south -- that would fit with Craster's wives' account of them becoming more active in recent years. And it would also account for why, after so many years of resisting, that the remaining clans, and the giants, decided to join Mance.

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On 9/17/2017 at 1:15 PM, John Suburbs said:

 

Well, let's look at it this way:

When did Mance leave the watch? He was still a watchman on his first visit to Winterfell when Jon was just a boy. This had to be some time before 288 because he was with Lord Qorgyle at the time, and probably no earlier than 286 because Jon and Robb have to be old enough to pile a "great mountain" of snow above the gate at Winterfell.

Sometime after that, Mance quit the NW and started gathering the free folk, so this could have been as early as 289 or 290, a good 10 years before the events of the book. We know he then spent "years" trying to unite the clans and at some point started opening crypts looking for the horn. There is no text whatsoever that definitively states when the Others first reappeared, but I think it's a safe bet that the encounter in the GoT prologue is not the first time they came across humans.

So if Mance's despoiling of the crypts did have something to do with the Others' reappearance -- either by releasing them somehow or causing some disturbance that made them come south -- that would fit with Craster's wives' account of them becoming more active in recent years. And it would also account for why, after so many years of resisting, that the remaining clans, and the giants, decided to join Mance.

My point is that I think Mance only started his digging - and possibly only started trying to unify the Free Folk - after the Walkers started stirring enough that it became noticeable and a concern to the Free Folk.

The real question is which happened first - the Walkers stirring or Mance digging.

Me, I think the Walkers were stirring first. That Mance is motivated to dig by the activities of the Walkers.

 

I very much doubt that many of the Free Folk - far less the giants - would have approved of digging up ancient graves of giants and men, without the threat of the Walkers.

 

Mance's army could've gotten past/around/over the Wall at pretty much any point, and most of it is entirely undefended. He could have had a quarter of his force and done the same. Therefore, I conclude that if getting south of the Wall was the goal, digging for the Horn of Joramun (which they didn't find in the end) would have been a waste of time.

 

Besides, if Mance digging released entombed/imprisoned Others, the Others probably would have wiped out those who dug them up/out and were right there, not let the despoilers get away, and start picking off people years and miles away, IMO.

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57 minutes ago, DominusNovus said:

Wouldn't it be amusing if the Others hadn't had any wights until Mance dug some buried wights up? 'Oh man, thats right, we can raise the dead as our servants! I totally forgot that!'

I can be pretty groggy after just 8 hours of sleep; imagine what 8000 years does to you.

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