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Wet groping lips

What if Robert hadn't died?

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I can't help thinking about Tyrion's thoughts concerning Ned stark. Like how cercei eats such honorable fools for breakfast. Frankly I don't really agree that Ned was too stupid because what was the possibility that Robert would die? roberts death was too convenient to move the plot foward as well as unrealistic and too desperate on cercei's part. So d question I really mean to ask is this;if dear ol' Bobby Baratheon hadn't died at a snap from cercei's fingers, would Ned stark still have been considered a fool for trying to be a just man? 

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Of course.

If robert had cersei and the kids to bargain with Tywin a war with the Rock could had been aboided. Even if he kills them and Jaime, tywin wouldnt have anything else to fight for besides revenge.

If Tywin gets his sons and gran sons he has no other path than war. He wouldnt handle them to robert. Its out of character. 

 

 

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but if robert had lived, then ned would have had the opportunity to reveal to him cersie's betrayal. begin trotting out bobby boy's bastards as proof. given robert's renown temper, i wouldnt put it past him to actually kill cersie with his own hands if she didnt manage to escape the capital. maybe ned could restrain him from killing the children, but cersie and jaime would have prices on their heads. tywin would still go to war, but now the stormlands and north, riverlands, and maybe the vale, are firmly allied against him. maybe robert keeps stannis as his heir, maybe he legitimizes one of his bastards, like gendry, and sends gendry to foster with one his uncles and learn lording.

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His best chance would be if Loras managed to get to Robert before him, sell him on the Margy plan, and present a deal (some pardons in exchange for accepting an annulment and some punishments) to the Lannisters before Ned has a chance to go around telling everyone he's arresting them tomorrow so please be nice until then.

If he's really lucky, Mace ends up as Hand and he can go home to Winterfell. Then, when Littlefinger or Varys finds a way to start a war anyway, he can watch it from the far side of Moat Cailin until he's called in to actually lead an army, which he's great at, instead of to play court politics, which he sucks at.

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Robert is described by Ned as someone whose got quite a temper. However, there’s very little to back that up. 


a-    Robert kept his cool when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna at Harrenhal
b-    He kept his cool when Lyanna was kidnapped
c-    He kept his cool when his supposed future brother in law and future father in law were killed
d-    He kept his cool up until Aerys gave him no choice but to rebel
e-    He forgiven most of his enemies (including Barristan the Bold who probably butchered quite a long list of rebels before being taken down)
f-    He forgiven Balon who rebelled
g-    He kept his cool when Joffrey got attacked by Ned’s direwolf
h-    He kept his cool when Gregor Clegane got feral and first assaulted Loras and then clashed swords with the hound


So if he survived the boar attack then I can’t see him going berserk against Cersei 


a-    Because Ned’s proof is weak. Cersei is blonde so there was a good chance that her children would inherit her traits
b-    The Starks and the Lannisters were in some sort of cold war. Ned never really forgiven the kinslayer’s action, his wife has just kidnapped Tyrion and the Starks has been firing all sort of accusations against the Lannisters (including trying to kill Bran)
c-    By accepting the Starks POV, Robert would have to admit that his wife and his bodyguard have been taking him for a ride for years without him even noticing. That must be pretty tough for a warrior king to admit. It would also mean that he’ll probably have to go to war with the very house who had lent him so much money throughout the years which will sound a horrible thing to do (is Robert doing it to get away from his financial commitments?). Not to forget that he will probably have to go tough against innocents whom he believed to be his own children.

The best Ned could achieve was a trial. If that happened then the Lannisters would opt for a trial by combat which would put Ned against either Jamie or the Mountain. That means that Ned would probably lose. 

Edited by Darken

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6 hours ago, Wet groping lips said:

I can't help thinking about Tyrion's thoughts concerning Ned stark. Like how cercei eats such honorable fools for breakfast. Frankly I don't really agree that Ned was too stupid because what was the possibility that Robert would die? roberts death was too convenient to move the plot foward as well as unrealistic and too desperate on cercei's part. So d question I really mean to ask is this;if dear ol' Bobby Baratheon hadn't died at a snap from cercei's fingers, would Ned stark still have been considered a fool for trying to be a just man? 

I dare you to go to a meet and greet and tell that to the author's face 

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1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I dare you to go to a meet and greet and tell that to the author's face 

Why?  Its a valid point.  The timing of the matter doesn't really work out, and the reliability of the attempt doesn't really hold up, either.  This particular assassination plot really has too many moving parts that are out of Cersei's (or Tywin's, if you're in the camp that he was involved) control.  It could be that she was just constantly doing her best to nudge Robert into situations that had a reasonable likelihood of killing him, which sounds reasonable enough (consider the melee at the tourney), but the problem with that is that its very fortunate for Cersei that she lucks out that the literal last possible attempt happens right before Ned can tell Robert about her kids.

Cersei's best weapon in the early books is sheer unadulterated luck.

Edited by DominusNovus

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The only foolish thing Ned did was attempt to show mercy to Cersei. Or more accurately, her children. That's what got him killed. That's why he looks a fool. Trusting LF wasn't really stupid. Lot's of people trust him. By this standard, the entire court is stupid. 

Otherwise he's not actually as stupid as people suggest. Predictable, yes. No more so than Cersei or Robert or anyone really with a few exceptions. 

If Ned hadn't of told Cersei his intentions, and proceeded to inform Robert of her treachery, our story would end with Ned as the hero of a realm with a succession issue; the shadows of Stannis and Tywin looming in the background for a sequel.  

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23 minutes ago, DominusNovus said:

Why?  Its a valid point.  The timing of the matter doesn't really work out, and the reliability of the attempt doesn't really hold up, either.  This particular assassination plot really has too many moving parts that are out of Cersei's (or Tywin's, if you're in the camp that he was involved) control.  It could be that she was just constantly doing her best to nudge Robert into situations that had a reasonable likelihood of killing him, which sounds reasonable enough (consider the melee at the tourney), but the problem with that is that its very fortunate for Cersei that she lucks out that the literal last possible attempt happens right before Ned can tell Robert about her kids.

True, It wasn't a straight up assassination. She simply fed his vices, over and over again, and this time, the man who has a penchant for beating her and calling out another woman's name during sex finally made a fatal mistake. In feast, she thinks about how much bob drank, and how he would show up looking for sex and she would just give him a handy, therefore saving her birth canal for her brother.  with that, it seems perfectly reasonable that she would have her cousin/lover feed him strongwine until he finally tripped. And as for luck, of course. But why would that be an issue in a book with ice-demons, not-elves, fire-mages, zombies, shadow-assassins shot from a priestess' nether parts, a wall of ice that would take more water than is in a great lake to build, and flying, fire breathing lizards hatched from petrified eggs?  

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33 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

True, It wasn't a straight up assassination. She simply fed his vices, over and over again, and this time, the man who has a penchant for beating her and calling out another woman's name during sex finally made a fatal mistake. In feast, she thinks about how much bob drank, and how he would show up looking for sex and she would just give him a handy, therefore saving her birth canal for her brother.  with that, it seems perfectly reasonable that she would have her cousin/lover feed him strongwine until he finally tripped. And as for luck, of course. But why would that be an issue in a book with ice-demons, not-elves, fire-mages, zombies, shadow-assassins shot from a priestess' nether parts, a wall of ice that would take more water than is in a great lake to build, and flying, fire breathing lizards hatched from petrified eggs?  

There's plot-convenient luck and there's magic.

Cersei's luck drives the first book's plot almost single-handedly. Given how reckless she is (as noted by the other characters and as deduced by the reader) it strains credulity how lucky she is.

The magic, on the other hand, is nowhere near as convenient for either the characters or the plot.

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If Robert hadn't died then Ned would have told him about the incest of Jaime and Cersei.  You would automatically had a war with the West.  If Tywin decided to stay and fight I can only really see him trying to make common cause with the Tyrells.  They had money and they obviously had ambition.  HOWEVER, remember that Loras and Renly were already trying to get Margaery into Roberts bed.  I think that this is definitely the outcome right when Ned tells Robert about the incest.  

So after that then the Lannisters could MAYBE make common cause with the Ironborn, and then hire sell swords.  If thats the case then you have a Western side of Westeros in full revolt.  The Ironborn attacking the North would make it so Ned couldn't send his forces South.  or at least not his full force.  

Now lets say that Baelish STILL makes it to the Vale and for some reason helps the Lannisters.  Maybe out of revenge for being slighted with Cat, and maybe because he knows theyd ultimately be easier to manipulate.  So to protect the North from having to fight on two fronts the Riverlands and maybe the Crownlands attack the Vale.  The Stormlands fight on the East Coast of Westeros since obviously sell swords would attack the East side to distract from the West.  

You then have the Reach and Dorne possibly attacking the West.  Dorne would never side with the Lannisters, and the Reach would be married into the Royal Family.  So overall I believe Robert would have won.  But that depends because if the Lannisters hired more sell swords and sell sails from the East to say back up the Vale and attack the North- you could easily have shit going bad.

Edited by OberynBlackfyre
adding more information

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3 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

There's plot-convenient luck and there's magic.

Cersei's luck drives the first book's plot almost single-handedly. Given how reckless she is (as noted by the other characters and as deduced by the reader) it strains credulity how lucky she is.

The magic, on the other hand, is nowhere near as convenient for either the characters or the plot.

Well until the second book. The shadow babies are prolly the two most powerful things we've seen so far in action, other than a dragon. But we don't know if a shadow baby can kill a dragon -- based on Renly's wound I'd say so -- or vice versa -- how do you kill mist?.

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3 hours ago, OberynBlackfyre said:

If Robert hadn't died then Ned would have told him about the incest of Jaime and Cersei.  You would automatically had a war with the West.  If Tywin decided to stay and fight I can only really see him trying to make common cause with the Tyrells.  They had money and they obviously had ambition.  HOWEVER, remember that Loras and Renly were already trying to get Margaery into Roberts bed.  I think that this is definitely the outcome right when Ned tells Robert about the incest.  

So after that then the Lannisters could MAYBE make common cause with the Ironborn, and then hire sell swords.  If thats the case then you have a Western side of Westeros in full revolt.  The Ironborn attacking the North would make it so Ned couldn't send his forces South.  or at least not his full force.  

Now lets say that Baelish STILL makes it to the Vale and for some reason helps the Lannisters.  Maybe out of revenge for being slighted with Cat, and maybe because he knows theyd ultimately be easier to manipulate.  So to protect the North from having to fight on two fronts the Riverlands and maybe the Crownlands attack the Vale.  The Stormlands fight on the East Coast of Westeros since obviously sell swords would attack the East side to distract from the West.  

You then have the Reach and Dorne possibly attacking the West.  Dorne would never side with the Lannisters, and the Reach would be married into the Royal Family.  So overall I believe Robert would have won.  But that depends because if the Lannisters hired more sell swords and sell sails from the East to say back up the Vale and attack the North- you could easily have shit going bad.

The iron born couldnt do their move against the north since the royal fleet wouldnt had been destroyed in black waters.

 

Probably Stannis would had crashed them as he did before.

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4 minutes ago, Señor de la Tormenta said:

The iron born couldnt do their move against the north since the royal fleet wouldnt had been destroyed in black waters.

 

Probably Stannis would had crashed them as he did before.

This is possible but I think the Lannisters would easily hire sellswords and sell sails to counteract this.  The Royal Fleet isnt as big as the Iron Fleet at the time of this happening.  They would probably crash with Redwynes fleet possibly.  But thats if Redwyne wanted to send that many men to the Iron Islands when the West is filled with men and could attack them far easier.

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22 hours ago, OberynBlackfyre said:

This is possible but I think the Lannisters would easily hire sellswords and sell sails to counteract this.  The Royal Fleet isnt as big as the Iron Fleet at the time of this happening.  They would probably crash with Redwynes fleet possibly.  But thats if Redwyne wanted to send that many men to the Iron Islands when the West is filled with men and could attack them far easier.

Unlikely.

 

They were outnumbered in the sea in ACOK and could do nothing. Even more, stannis hired the sellsails because of davos contacts.

Even after BW they resorted to building new ships and mostly depended on the redwynes.

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I know it's a big thing to talk in circles, but let's be real:

1.  There isn't any scenario where Robert finds out about Cersei and Jaime and he doesn't kill (or attempt to kill) everyone involved, save Tommen and Myrcella (and even that's iffy).  If Robert lives, we have war.

2.  There isn't any scenario where Tywin successfully fights a war against the unified Iron Throne.  Tywin has napalmed too many bridges, even the great houses that dislike Robert (Greyjoy, Martell) would never ally with Tywin.  They would sit back and watch Bobby B & Friends slaughter the Westerlands without saying a word.

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Robert would've had every Lannister killed in the capital, Jaime would've escaped if he wasn't ambushed and captured right away. Probably legitimize Edric Storm and Mya Stone, and every other bastard he could find of his & Have Edric marry Shireen as heirs (right in front of Cersei). Don't think hes the type to go start a new family. Robert still would've been supported by the original 4k during the rebellion + maybe Dorne... Don't see the Tyrells running over to a loss cause. Even if Robert was talked into marrying Margaery Tyrell, he wouldn't need to.

 

His last thrill in life would've been to see House Lannister destroyed.

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On 9/19/2017 at 9:08 AM, Graydon Hicks said:

but if robert had lived, then ned would have had the opportunity to reveal to him cersie's betrayal. begin trotting out bobby boy's bastards as proof. given robert's renown temper, i wouldnt put it past him to actually kill cersie with his own hands if she didnt manage to escape the capital. maybe ned could restrain him from killing the children, but cersie and jaime would have prices on their heads. tywin would still go to war, but now the stormlands and north, riverlands, and maybe the vale, are firmly allied against him. maybe robert keeps stannis as his heir, maybe he legitimizes one of his bastards, like gendry, and sends gendry to foster with one his uncles and learn lording.

Maybe not the Vale. That depends on Lysa.

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On 9/21/2017 at 5:14 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Maybe not the Vale. That depends on Lysa.

true. its more that that the vale lords would be more inclined to follow their kings command to ride to war, given his history with them through the rebellion and the his own fosterage, as he was a king they liked, even if it meant disobeying lysa, during the W5K, they didnt like joff, and lysa's stance of neutrality gave them the excuse to stay put, though we know a few did want to ride to robb's aid.

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