Aussie Politics: Please post your response (No stamp needed)

[Paxter]

In case anyone missed it, some pure gold from our favourite Senator:

Quote

I haven't flip-flopped. I said no originally, then I said yes, then I have said no and I have stuck to it.

 

[Paxter]

So, Archbishop Wilson is getting 12 months detention (which could be served at home) for concealing child sexual abuse.

I don't know how to feel about this one. On one hand, I am proud that Australia has broken ground in convicting a high-ranking member of the Church for concealing abuse. Other jurisdictions have tried and failed to get this done. On the other hand, Wilson will be eligible for parole in 6 months and may not even need to serve out in his sentence in a correctional centre. Moreover, and more disgustingly in my view, he has not even resigned as Archbishop, nor has the Church asked for his resignation. 

A message to the Catholic Church: you obviously just don't get it. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I know this is a bit old, but I can't stop laughing at it:

Was Barnaby holding them at gunpoint when they filmed this?

[Paxter]

Some interesting by-elections coming up this weekend. I think the ALP will retain Braddon but Longman is another matter. Turnbull must be regretting opting for a long campaign through - recent revelations about the Coalition's Longman candidate might have handed the advantage back to Labor. 

I'm guessing that in the end we won't see any of the seats change hands.

[Impmk2]

And in the end labour wins all 4 by elections. Looking more likely we'll see a prime minister Shorten next year. Mixed feelings about that. 

Just praying we can get rid of Dutton in the process. Wouldn't take much of a swing. 

[karaddin]

15 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

And in the end labour wins all 4 by elections. Looking more likely we'll see a prime minister Shorten next year. Mixed feelings about that. 

Just praying we can get rid of Dutton in the process. Wouldn't take much of a swing. 

That's the #1 thing I'm hoping for, he's a fascist dictator in the making. Given how Turnbull had talked up the by elections as being about the leadership, I wonder if he'll get knifed now since he emphatically lost.

[Jeor]

2 hours ago, karaddin said:

Given how Turnbull had talked up the by elections as being about the leadership, I wonder if he'll get knifed now since he emphatically lost.

I doubt it. All of the seats were non-Coalition anyway so he hasn't actually lost any, any seat he picked up would have been a bonus. Plus most of these were triggered by the citizenship crisis so you'd expect the incumbent to continue on pretty comfortably.

[karaddin]

4 hours ago, Jeor said:

I doubt it. All of the seats were non-Coalition anyway so he hasn't actually lost any, any seat he picked up would have been a bonus. Plus most of these were triggered by the citizenship crisis so you'd expect the incumbent to continue on pretty comfortably.

That's all true, he should have considered that before engaging in the rhetoric he did.

[Paxter]

Yes, nothing to see here in the end with the usual rule of by-elections applying. I think Longman could’ve been really interesting but Turnbull’s decision to go for a long campaign backfired.

[Stubby]

The LNP are not paying attention.  Hopefully it continues.

[Paxter]

35 minutes ago, Stubby said:

The LNP are not paying attention.  Hopefully it continues.

Will be very interesting to see whether they take their full corporate tax cuts to the election. They may well be inclined to dump them after the Longman result. 

[karaddin]

I thought we were bound to have an early election, and there were signs of various factions preparing for it, but I'm starting to think that unless Mal gets knifed he really will just drag popularity down as long as possible to keep the worthless* crown on his head and we'll go to the polls next May. This would leave him with time for 1 more budget to try bribery.

*Worthless in the sense that he has no power or agenda of his own, he's just serving Dutton.

[Jeor]

I think if the byelection results had been more positive for the Coalition then Turnbull probably would have been inclined to capitalise and call an early election (though he would piss off all the byelection people who'd have to vote again!). Now though I think he'll wait until mid next year. I don't really think he's going to get knifed soon, unless Shorten gets replaced by Albanese.

Ironically I think the main thing keeping Turnbull in power is Bill Shorten. The Labor poll numbers are good, but Shorten's personal rating in preferred Prime Minister has always underwhelmed. I'm almost certain someone like Albanese or Plibersek would perform better (both in the polls and probably on substance too).

[Paxter]

I'm not a fan of either of our major parties from a policy point of view, but even I tire of the constant Coalition/ALP leadership speculation. The defenestration of three sitting PMs this decade was quite enough. 

Anyone keen for another election can tune in to the imminent Vic one!

[karaddin]

Just to be clear, under normal circumstances I hate the leadership speculation as well and get really frustrated at the endless obsession with it by the media. 

However I cannot overstate how much the idea of Dutton being elected PM from opposition scares me. The man has no respect for democracy or the courts, and a lot of personal hatred for minorities. Most liberal leaders are going to be (from my perspective of course) terrible with not that much policy difference between them, and it doesn't much matter which one it is, but Dutton is different. Any mechanism which defuses that threat is something I'd welcome, and him getting the leadership while they are in government and right before they lose government seems one of the safer options. The best is for him to just lose his seat.

[Paxter]

37 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Just to be clear, under normal circumstances I hate the leadership speculation as well and get really frustrated at the endless obsession with it by the media. 

However I cannot overstate how much the idea of Dutton being elected PM from opposition scares me. The man has no respect for democracy or the courts, and a lot of personal hatred for minorities. Most liberal leaders are going to be (from my perspective of course) terrible with not that much policy difference between them, and it doesn't much matter which one it is, but Dutton is different. Any mechanism which defuses that threat is something I'd welcome, and him getting the leadership while they are in government and right before they lose government seems one of the safer options. The best is for him to just lose his seat.

Perhaps I'm an optimist (who'd have thought?!) but I think that Dutton would tack to the centre if he was to come to power. It's easier to stick to a pure conservative position when you are a Cabinet minister (or on the backbench) than when you are PM.

For some reason Dutton strikes me as a pragmatic, bloody-minded opportunist rather than an idealogue. 

[karaddin]

45 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Perhaps I'm an optimist (who'd have thought?!) but I think that Dutton would tack to the centre if he was to come to power. It's easier to stick to a pure conservative position when you are a Cabinet minister (or on the backbench) than when you are PM.

For some reason Dutton strikes me as a pragmatic, bloody-minded opportunist rather than an idealogue. 

Oh I don't think he's an ideologue, I think he's a brutish bully obsessed with power. Harm for minorities comes from his base bigotry, not any lofty ideals. He's gathered an uncomfortable level of power to himself in his current portfolio, and he attacks or flouts court rulings that try to keep him in check.

He'd set himself up as a dictator if he could, but he's nothing like the hate mongers that do have ideology (Cory etc).

[Stubby]

Dutton is a potato-headed cretin, in addition to the valid criticisms offered by Karaddin.

[Paxter]

Just reminds me of that photograph.

[Impmk2]

And the Coalition now seems destined to continue the revolving door of the PMs office...

When the inevitable happens I'm just hoping it will be the last nail in this governments coffin, and they'll get punished by the electorate for deposing another PM and putting another extreme right winger in the top job. But can never be sure these days.