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Brook and I have a rental inspection next week and Brook is slammed with assignments so unless you're around until next weekend I don't think we can make it :(

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14 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Brook and I have a rental inspection next week and Brook is slammed with assignments so unless you're around until next weekend I don't think we can make it :(

Yikes, best of luck with both!

I'm around next Saturday, so if that's still an option next week we should try and make something happen.

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Still up for night time or just during the day? We'll still have the kids then but at least one of us should be able to do something then, whether its lunch or night time. Pax should still see this, but I'll ping Nil to come have a look as well.

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16 hours ago, Horza said:

Unrelated, to superannuation or Wentworth but I'm back in town for a few days if anyone feels like a meetup

I think TWS (the celebrated de facto leader of the Sydney BwB) is trying to figure something out. I should be able to join in.

Back to Wentworth: the Coalition have started to go hard on the pessimism, either to brace the country for their defeat (and a minority government) or to rally some hard core voters thinking of turning coat for Phelps. I think it will be very close (and have some $ on the Coalition as a hedge!)

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Now the countdown begins to the next general election!

It probably won't happen immediately, but something innocuous will fail to pass the House and Morrison will have to call the election.

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PS - I might have even considered venturing out from under my rock to a BWB meetup but unfortunately I have a friend's wedding next Sat.

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That was over in a flash. ScoMo already making it clear he learnt nothing

 

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Hmmm...did we speak to soon? The result is looking very marginal now for Phelps. Maybe the ABC went too early?

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29 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Hmmm...did we speak to soon? The result is looking very marginal now for Phelps. Maybe the ABC went too early?

The big difference was the early votes before the absolute shit show of the last week. Although I'm wondering if a big chunk of the Orthodox Jewish community also voted like that to avoid voting on the Sabbath as you'd expect them to heavily lean Liberal, so that could explain messing with the modeling on the night.

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I was just looking at the numbers in more detail and I think the Libs could easily end up holding on to the seat. Phelps has around 10,000 less first preferences than Sharma with 25% or so of the vote still to be counted. Preferences will need to flow strongly for her to seal the win.

Edited by Paxter

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17 hours ago, Paxter said:

I was just looking at the numbers in more detail and I think the Libs could easily end up holding on to the seat. Phelps has around 10,000 less first preferences than Sharma with 25% or so of the vote still to be counted. Preferences will need to flow strongly for her to seal the win.

It looks like turn out will only be around 80%. 13000 postal votes were sent out, with around half of those counted.

~7000 votes remaining, and Phelps is over 1600 votes in the lead. She should be safe.

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6 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

It looks like turn out will only be around 80%. 13000 postal votes were sent out, with around half of those counted.

~7000 votes remaining, and Phelps is over 1600 votes in the lead. She should be safe.

Oh I didn’t realise the low turnout - thought we would see well over 80%. I also wrote that post before the Bondi error was discovered - that gave Phelps a bunch of extra votes.

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Should we expect an early election now? Would rather be in opposition than be incumbent now at the moment to be honest....

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2 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Should we expect an early election now? Would rather be in opposition than be incumbent now at the moment to be honest....

I think if you look at federal and state politics over the last 20 years that's certainly the conclusion I'd draw - get out of government asap so you can start to rehabilitate instead of digging into the floor of your vote share and having longer in the wilderness.

The thing with Malcolm was, and I don't think it's changed at all with Morrison or even Duttons perspective, is that they're not interested in the long term good of the party, they're in it for their own personal career/power and the end of this government is likely to be the end of their political careers. Mal was 100% done and couldn't delude himself otherwise, ScoMo might manage to hold onto the leadership through the transition to opposition but even if he manages that feat I don't rate his odds of lasting a second electoral defeat and I'd be surprised if they're only in opposition 1 term.

Dutton hasn't burnt his factional support yet, nor his chance at leading the party, but I'm cautiously optimistic that he's going to lose his seat. I don't have a high opinion of his intelligence but surely he's considering that possibility. 

ETA: Forgot the conclusion - I don't think anything is going to change their mind to hang on as long as possible. Also the logistics of the elections is really complicated by Vic and NSW having state elections in November and March with fixed terms so they can't even change them. I'm not sure if December and January are out according to rules or just convention, but no one seems to consider them as a possibility, they could squeeze it in at the start of March and then after that it's May, so they'll just hang on to then. Can't be any later without a half Senate election on its own.

Edited by karaddin
Eta

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There's nothing in the rules or convention preventing December or January elections, just basic common sense.

The crossbench won't vote down this government cos "stability" so May it is. The only thing that would change this equation is if the Libs and Nats just can't keep it together and more people quit the party or resign. It might happen, cos it seems like the right and the moderates will keep flinging turds at each other for the rest of the term, but you'd think self preservation would stop them short of absolute mayhem.

Edited by Horza

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