Aussie Politics: Please post your response (No stamp needed)

[The Anti-Targ]

So Turnbull is pulling some climate change legislation because the conservatives in his govt have said they will vote it down. Is this not an important enough bit of legislation for Labour and the Greens to pu ttheir hands up to make up the numbers? Or is Turnbull just saving his own skin, if he used Labour/Greens to get this legislation though, the following day he'd be ousted as PM?

[karaddin]

He never even asked them. He's a PM without any party, beholden to the radicals in the party. I guess he might be slightly free of them now after the spill, but he's just traded one master (Dutton) for another (ScoMo). He never tries to do what you said because that would take a spine. We're either heading for another spill possibly within days or having an election called, so its all theater anyway.

[Squab]

ALP had the legislation Wednesday night to review before the backbenchers in his own party got it on Friday night. Probably because it is a bill to reduce carbon emissions. If it had been about reducing electricity prices to begin with, Turnbull wouldn't have needed to call the spill (which he did). He's backed out of the NEG enough to keep the majority of the party happy which is why he won the spill.

[Impmk2]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So Turnbull is pulling some climate change legislation because the conservatives in his govt have said they will vote it down. Is this not an important enough bit of legislation for Labour and the Greens to pu ttheir hands up to make up the numbers? Or is Turnbull just saving his own skin, if he used Labour/Greens to get this legislation though, the following day he'd be ousted as PM?

If he attached an emissions target to it he could in all likelihood negotiate it through with Labor, but the hard liners in the coalition would not be happy and it might cost him his job. Instead he's set on appeasing them. That means he's flip flopping on policy, appearing spineless, pissing off large portions of the electorate and tanking in the polls. Which is then pissing off large portion of his party and is probably going to cost him his job.

The annoying thing is what's good for Australia doesn't come into it. We have a chance to settle climate policy and get a bipartisan framework in place. That'd not only bring down emissions, but also power prices as it'd give some certainty to energy investment.

But the right wingers (ie Tony Abbott) have publicly said they want a fight over this so they have an issue to take it to the next election, good of the country be damned.

[The Anti-Targ]

Since when has politics really ever been about what's good for the country? Most of the time it's taking an ideological positions and then trying to sell it as being good / best for the country, without actually presenting objective evidence that it is true.

Sometimes, by accident, it just happens to turn out that it's best for the country. The number of people who are actually willing to sacrifice personally (pay more / earn less / do more / consume less) for the greater good will always be a minority.

[Impmk2]

19 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Since when has politics really ever been about what's good for the country? Most of the time it's taking an ideological positions and then trying to sell it as being good / best for the country, without actually presenting objective evidence that it is true.

Sometimes, by accident, it just happens to turn out that it's best for the country. The number of people who are actually willing to sacrifice personally (pay more / earn less / do more / consume less) for the greater good will always be a minority.

Sadly true. Just particularly annoying in this case as it was all so close.

Another tilt now seems inevitable. Probably an election shortly after. Can't see how this will go well for the libs outside of north Queensland.

Dutton now saying he'd take the GST off power bills. Seems to forget he'd need to get the states to sign off on it. Not a chance in hell, it's completely undeliverable. Quality leadership there.

[The Anti-Targ]

7 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

 

Dutton now saying he'd take the GST off power bills. Seems to forget he'd need to get the states to sign off on it. Not a chance in hell, it's completely undeliverable. Quality leadership there.

Sounds like Trump's pledge to ditch Obamacare. Campaign on something you can't achieve on your own, and give yourself the ability to blame others for preventing the winningest idea ever from being put in place. It's all about what will get you elected, not what you can achieve once elected.

[Jeor]

This is all ridiculous. I'm known on this board for having voted Coalition a few times (not exclusively, I might add - I was a state Labor voter while Bob Carr was around) but this self-immolation by the government is quite suicidal.

First of all, Dutton has zero appeal to your average mainstream voter. However much people might hate Turnbull, he's definitely more palatable than Dutton. Heck, Abbott and Scott Morrison have more appeal than Dutton.

Secondly, it's called government, so carry on with the job. Backroom knifings are for opposition leaders, not sitting PMs (though both parties appear to have forgotten that in recent times).

Thirdly, I wish they'd come up with an actual big policy idea rather than lots of little things that are done to appease interest groups. I guarantee you that a half-decent Big Idea will be a political winner, or at least turn the conversation back to policy rather than politics.

[Wall Flower]

Prime Minister Dutton. Nooooo! Please tell me he can't possibly win the next election.

[Stubby]

Is there any truth to the rumour that the LNP was admitted to hospital yesterday with bullet wounds in both feet?

[Squab]

Tourism Australia's next campaign:

VISIT AUSTRALIA, HAVE A GO AT RUNNING THE JOINT

[The Drunkard]

Reaaaaaaaally hoping the ALP doesn't shit itself somehow before the election. Or else...

[Impmk2]

Sounds like ScoMo has thrown his hat into the ring, he's slightly more palatable than Dutton.

Oh God I never thought I'd be rooting for ScoMo as PM. The hell is wrong with me 

[Impmk2]

lol! Turnbull knows his goose is cooked, but he's trying his best to take Dutton with him. Party room meeting tomorrow, after the solicitor general gives advice on Dutton's section 44 issues.

[The Anti-Targ]

So Turnbull doesn't have the support to continue, but I imagine that doesn't necessarily mean Dutton does have the numbers.

I imagine the people who don't like either of them will be thinking more about who's less likely to lose the election (or minimise the depth of any likely loss) rather than who would actually make a for a good PM.

[Jeor]

I think there will be enough people opposed to Dutton that a compromise candidate like Scott Morrison could find themselves the next Prime Minister (at least for a few months until they lose the next election).

Dutton doesn't have an emphatic lead and only appeals to the hard right faction of the party. There will be some ill feeling towards him because he was the one that started this whole mess in the first place. So I don't think it's likely he'll be the eventual winner.

Abbott, similarly, is tainted by being one of the backroom agitators. He'd be another right faction candidate, but he'd split the vote with Dutton so he won't be successful even if he wants to run. He'd only have a chance if Dutton withdrew (still a possibility if he is ruled ineligible, although I understand that hasn't officially been sent to the High Court).

Julie Bishop would probably be the best choice in terms of general voter appeal. However, she's too moderate and she's from WA which carries very little weight in the caucus. It's a pity but I don't think she'll get the chance; but there is a tiny opportunity if the Liberal party comes to their senses and realises that she is probably their only chance of winning a general election.

Scott Morrison is the most likely candidate in my opinion. He's been Turnbull's Treasurer, so assuming Turnbull doesn't run (which he won't) and assuming Bishop doesn't throw her hat into the ring to split their vote, ScoMo should attract all of the party room Turnbull votes. However, ScoMo also has some appeal to the right faction since he too was a crazy hardline Immigration Minister; I could imagine him peeling off some Dutton voters. He's also largely untainted by the (recent) factional infighting.

The Liberals should take a leaf out of the Labor playbook and institute some party rule that a PM who wins an election gets to serve until the next election. That might stop Australia from becoming the coup capital of the world.

[The Winged Shadow]

<3 Aussie politics. I quite enjoy all the backstabbing. Specially when the Libs are doing it.

WTB Horza commentary, kthxbai.

Edit: ScoMo is probably more of a threat than Dutton for next election. So kinda worrying that he is gaining momentum. I want Dutton to win god dammit! 

[Impmk2]

2 hours ago, The Winged Shadow said:

 

Edit: ScoMo is probably more of a threat than Dutton for next election. So kinda worrying that he is gaining momentum. I want Dutton to win god dammit! 

All kinda academic, as ScoMo is PM. But that's exactly the Hillary vs Trump reasoning. And look how that worked out!

[Jeor]

ScoMo is in. Next to Bishop I think he was the best damage control the Liberals could hope for. Dutton or Abbott would have been poison, whereas Morrison at least is not seen as an agitator for the coup.

There's going to be a new election if Turnbull resigns his seat in parliament.

Morrison at least can sort of say it wasn't his fault, so he might have an outside chance of retaining government though I doubt it. The Liberals need to sort out their party room antics; it's going to be a significant millstone if people can't trust that Morrison is going to serve out a full term.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

I thought Turnbull pretty much confirmed he'd be resigning his seat if he got booted out of the PM's office. Is Morrison going to convince him to see out the term so as to not risk the Lib-Nats losing their 1-seat majority?