Jump to content

LF's influence over Joffrey


Ygrain

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That rationale makes pretty much no sense from Littlefinger's POV:

Littlefinger wants Ned to become the Hand. That is why he has Lysa to write the letter. It makes the death of Jon Arryn look suspicious and reawakens and fuels the anti-Lannister feelings in Ned.

Littlefinger has nothing to gain from an attempt on any of the Stark children, especially considering that this could have very well led to Ned canceling the whole Hand thing. In fact, Littlefinger most likely wanted to draw both Ned and Cat to KL. 

Whether Ned becomes hand or not is irrelevant to Littlefinger. The goal here is to sow enmity between Wolf and Lion, and what better way to do that by accusing the Lanns of one murder in King's Landing then implicating them in another at Winterfell? Certainly a lot quicker and less iffy on the details than luring Ned down south, leading him by the nose to all of Robert's bastards, fingering Tyrion as Bran's assassin and then counting on a chance meeting on the King's Road to effect the kidnapping that gets the banners called.

As to whether Ned would have refused Robert's offer, we have this from Tyrion, who's a pretty perceptive guy:

Quote

Jaime Lannister regarded his brother thoughtfully with those cool green eyes. "Stark will never consent to leave Winterfell with his son lingering near the shadow of death."

"He will if Robert commands it," Tyrion said. "And Robert will command it. There is nothing Lord Eddard can do for the boy in any case."

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As to Joff's little ride with Sansa - that one was entirely unplanned. Sansa and Arya were supposed to spend the day with Cersei and Myrcella, and Sansa only ended up with Joffrey because Renly, Selmy, and Payne showed up unexpectedly. And even Joff only treated Mycah the way he did because he was drunk and wanted to show off in front of Sansa. At that point he had no reason yet to resent Sansa. She is a very beautiful girl, after all. But when his future wife sees how her younger sister and her wolf overwhelm and injure Joffrey the whole thing is over before it began. Joffrey cannot get over that.

 

Was it? I'm trying to fathom what Cersei could possible need to speak to "the good councillors" about for an entire day while Robert is out riding around with Ned. And it was Cersei who then suggested Joffrey "entertain" Sansa for the day while the Hound, who shadows Joffrey all around camp and in secure places like Winterfell, is nowhere to be seen as they go off into the riverlands.

And as mentioned above, the encounter with Arya and Mycah was by sheer chance, otherwise I suspect Sansa would have ended up dead -- perhaps drowned in the river. It has nothing to do with resentment at this point -- he is trying to do right by his house by forcing Ned back to Winterfell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/15/2017 at 11:29 AM, Ygrain said:

We don't? I think it fits well with Joff's psychopathy and we did receive some explanation for it, but if it was someone else, I don't believe it was Mance, he is better than that. And I don't think LF was involved in any way, he just grabbed the opportunity to further fan the conflict when he recognized the dagger.

Show spoiler:

  Reveal hidden contents

Yep but merely having sex with a prostitute would be too tame for the show :D

 

Now I've got a very, very terrifying idea: what if the girl provided to Joffrey was poor Jeyne Poole? What if with Ramsay, it wasn't the first time that she was brutalized as a substitute for Arya? Since Joffrey couldn't get his hands on the real Arya, wouldn't another Northern girl, who looks a lot like Arya, be perfect for venting his grudge for the Trident incident? We know that Jeyne was flogged - was it to beat her into submission, or as a punishment, or as a satisfaction of someone's sadistic purges?

I hope that LF doesn't get his head cut off cleanly but sawed off, as slowly as possible.

Joffrey did it to impress his dog. Note here that the Hound told Joffrey that the boy was a long time dying...

Quote

The rising sun had not yet cleared the walls of Winterfell, but the men were already hard at it in the yard below. Sandor Clegane's rasping voice drifted up to him. "The boy is a long time dying. I wish he would be quicker about it."

Tyrion glanced down and saw the Hound standing with young Joffrey as squires swarmed around them. "At least he dies quietly," the prince replied. "It's the wolf that makes the noise. I could scarce sleep last night."

Clegane cast a long shadow across the hard-packed earth as his squire lowered the black helm over his head. "I could silence the creature, if it please you," he said through his open visor. His boy placed a longsword in his hand. He tested the weight of it, slicing at the cold morning air. Behind him, the yard rang to the clangor of steel on steel.

The notion seemed to delight the prince. "Send a dog to kill a dog!" he exclaimed. "Winterfell is so infested with wolves, the Starks would never miss one."

Tyrion I, Game 9

Until the purple wedding, I believe most of us assumed that it was Cersei or Jaime, even if there was something off about it. Notice here, we are given the modus, but not the motive...

Quote

I am no stranger to Valyrian steel, the boy had boasted. The septons were always going on about how the Father Above judges us all. If the Father would be so good as to topple over and crush Joff like a dung beetle, I might even believe it.

He ought to have seen it long ago. Jaime would never send another man to do his killing, and Cersei was too cunning to use a knife that could be traced back to her, but Joff, arrogant vicious stupid little wretch that he was . . .

He remembered a cold morning when he'd climbed down the steep exterior steps from Winterfell's library to find Prince Joffrey jesting with the Hound about killing wolves. Send a dog to kill a wolf, he said. Even Joffrey was not so foolish as to command Sandor Clegane to slay a son of Eddard Stark, however; the Hound would have gone to Cersei. Instead the boy found his catspaw among the unsavory lot of freeriders, merchants, and camp followers who'd attached themselves to the king's party as they made their way north. Some poxy lackwit willing to risk his life for a prince's favor and a little coin. Tyrion wondered whose idea it had been to wait until Robert left Winterfell before opening Bran's throat. Joff's, most like. No doubt he thought it was the height of cunning.

The prince's own dagger had a jeweled pommel and inlaid goldwork on the blade, Tyrion seemed to recall. At least Joff had not been stupid enough to use that. Instead he went poking among his father's weapons. Robert Baratheon was a man of careless generosity, and would have given his son any dagger he wanted . . . but Tyrion guessed that the boy had just taken it. Robert had come to Winterfell with a long tail of knights and retainers, a huge wheelhouse, and a baggage train. No doubt some diligent servant had made certain that the king's weapons went with him, in case he should desire any of them.

The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke. I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger's knife.

The why of it still eluded him. Simple cruelty, perhaps? His nephew had that in abundance. It was all Tyrion could do not to retch up all the wine he'd drunk, piss in his breeches, or both. He squirmed uncomfortably. He ought to have held his tongue at breakfast. The boy knows I know now. My big mouth will be the death of me, I swear it.

Tyrion VIII, Storm 60

Here we get the motive...

Quote

Jaime suddenly remembered something else that troubled him about Winterfell. "At Riverrun, Catelyn Stark seemed convinced I'd sent some footpad to slit her son's throat. That I'd given him a dagger."

"That," she said scornfully. "Tyrion asked me about that."

"There was a dagger. The scars on Lady Catelyn's hands were real enough, she showed them to me. Did you . . . ?"

"Oh, don't be absurd." Cersei closed the window. "Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. ‘We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children,' he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink."

Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. "Were you alone when Robert said this?"

"You don't think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children." Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls. "Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?"

It was meant as mockery, but she'd cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. "Not Myrcella. Joffrey."

Cersei frowned. "Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself..."

"A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father."

Jaime IX, Storm 72

Joffrey did it to impress King Robert, the boy's presumed father... or perhaps he did it to impress the Hound, the boy's dog... or maybe it was a bit of both. I don't see any need to bring Petyr into it at all. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think the idea behind it, if Cersei would have put him up to it (I'm not saying she did) Would have been for afterwards Joffrey to make a claim that she is not a maid & then Cersei to have her "examined" giving Joffrey an out from marrying her. 

Sansa had not even flowered yet though & Joffrey never makes a move to "besmirch" her. The argument could be made that he was trying to get her drunk though & had they not happened upon Arya & Micah maybe he would have. 

I think all Joffrey had in mind was to ingratiate himself with his betrothed by showing off, giving her a little excitement, and letting her do stuff she wasn't allowed to, like drinking alcohol.  Normal kid stuff.  And I doubt any adults knew they were going to go off into the countryside unescorted.  Of course, that might make even more forbidden fruit to enjoy.

It is useful to remember they are both children, even by Westeros standards.  Joffrey is 12, Sansa 11.  The only sexual stuff I can even imagine them doing is of the "i'll show you mine if you show me yours" nature.  Embarrassing if caught (unlikely), but hardly the stuff of scandal.

With regard to @Ygrain's OP, I am of the opinion that Joffrey acted on his own with regard to the catspaw.  It is not entirely satisfactory, but the other solutions are even worse.  Also,it's exactly the sort of stupidity that a 12-year-old might come up with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Whether Ned becomes hand or not is irrelevant to Littlefinger. The goal here is to sow enmity between Wolf and Lion, and what better way to do that by accusing the Lanns of one murder in King's Landing then implicating them in another at Winterfell? Certainly a lot quicker and less iffy on the details than luring Ned down south, leading him by the nose to all of Robert's bastards, fingering Tyrion as Bran's assassin and then counting on a chance meeting on the King's Road to effect the kidnapping that gets the banners called.

How do you know that it is not Littlefinger's goal to make Ned the Hand. Littlefinger and Lysa know Cat. They can guess at the fact that she would like her husband to be the Hand, and they can predict what she would tell him after she reads the letter.

The point of the letter - or Littlefinger's entire scheming in AGoT - is to make Ned the Hand. And, presumably, to get Cat to KL, too, so that he can finally continue their relationship. He has no idea about there is a 'replacement Cat' in Sansa up there.

If Ned had stayed up in the North whatever tensions there were between him and the Lannisters would have been completely irrelevant. The Starks would have continued to be a non-player in the political sphere.

In the long run, Littlefinger doesn't really want to cause a war between Casterly Rock and Winterfell. He wants to advance himself. For the last decade he did that with the help of Lysa and Jon Arryn. Now he intends to do it with the help of Catelyn and Eddard Stark. He can also work with the Lannisters, of course, but they are not his favorite allies. He actually wanted to work with Ned and Cat. If Ned and Cat's marriage had been as happy as Jon and Lysa's - and Cat had given him any indication that she was willing to continue the romance he believed they had had, once - then Lord Petyr Baelish may have ended at Cat's side as Lord Protector of the North instead of the Lord Protector of the Vale.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As to whether Ned would have refused Robert's offer, we have this from Tyrion, who's a pretty perceptive guy:

I know that, but what on earth makes you think Littlefinger - who never even met Ned - would have the same (likely correct) assessment of the situation. And, you know, depending how this Bran thing had went Ned sure as hell could have decided to resign as Hand. That would have been within his rights.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Was it? I'm trying to fathom what Cersei could possible need to speak to "the good councillors" about for an entire day while Robert is out riding around with Ned. And it was Cersei who then suggested Joffrey "entertain" Sansa for the day while the Hound, who shadows Joffrey all around camp and in secure places like Winterfell, is nowhere to be seen as they go off into the riverlands.

Well, Renly surely showed up for some reason in the party there. Cersei would have been curious to find out what was going on. She could not afford to hang out with children the entire day. Sandor being absent is odd but one assumes that Sandor would actually have been the one to kill Sansa on Cersei's orders should Cersei and Joffrey truly have wanted Sansa dead. Cersei would never give such a task to Joffrey.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And as mentioned above, the encounter with Arya and Mycah was by sheer chance, otherwise I suspect Sansa would have ended up dead -- perhaps drowned in the river. It has nothing to do with resentment at this point -- he is trying to do right by his house by forcing Ned back to Winterfell.

Joff isn't smart enough for such a plan. Nor at this point corrupted enough. He honestly wanted to find and visit the place where his daddy Robert slew Rhaegar Targaryen. There is nothing mysterious about that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

How do you know that it is not Littlefinger's goal to make Ned the Hand. Littlefinger and Lysa know Cat. They can guess at the fact that she would like her husband to be the Hand, and they can predict what she would tell him after she reads the letter.

The point of the letter - or Littlefinger's entire scheming in AGoT - is to make Ned the Hand. And, presumably, to get Cat to KL, too, so that he can finally continue their relationship. He has no idea about there is a 'replacement Cat' in Sansa up there.

If Ned had stayed up in the North whatever tensions there were between him and the Lannisters would have been completely irrelevant. The Starks would have continued to be a non-player in the political sphere.

In the long run, Littlefinger doesn't really want to cause a war between Casterly Rock and Winterfell. He wants to advance himself. For the last decade he did that with the help of Lysa and Jon Arryn. Now he intends to do it with the help of Catelyn and Eddard Stark. He can also work with the Lannisters, of course, but they are not his favorite allies. He actually wanted to work with Ned and Cat. If Ned and Cat's marriage had been as happy as Jon and Lysa's - and Cat had given him any indication that she was willing to continue the romance he believed they had had, once - then Lord Petyr Baelish may have ended at Cat's side as Lord Protector of the North instead of the Lord Protector of the Vale.

I know that, but what on earth makes you think Littlefinger - who never even met Ned - would have the same (likely correct) assessment of the situation. And, you know, depending how this Bran thing had went Ned sure as hell could have decided to resign as Hand. That would have been within his rights.

Well, Renly surely showed up for some reason in the party there. Cersei would have been curious to find out what was going on. She could not afford to hang out with children the entire day. Sandor being absent is odd but one assumes that Sandor would actually have been the one to kill Sansa on Cersei's orders should Cersei and Joffrey truly have wanted Sansa dead. Cersei would never give such a task to Joffrey.

Joff isn't smart enough for such a plan. Nor at this point corrupted enough. He honestly wanted to find and visit the place where his daddy Robert slew Rhaegar Targaryen. There is nothing mysterious about that.

If Petyr sought to advancement (to what exactly?) by joining team Stark, then why didn't he join the team? Why did he lie to Catelyn about the dagger? Why did string Eddard along about the he twincest? Why didn't he lay it all out for them? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, it would instantly disqualify her as a fit consort to the king, even if Joffrey forced himself on her. For one thing, he would just lie and claim Sansa was the seducer, and even if nobody believed that she would still be viewed as "soiled" and unfit to be queen.

Soiled by who for who?

Robert had to acknowledge his bastard because she was a Florent.

You are suggesting that a match that the King has made between his son and his Lord Paramount Hand would be broken because Joff sampled the goods too soon?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Petyr sought to advancement (to what exactly?) by joining team Stark, then why didn't he join the team? Why did he lie to Catelyn about the dagger? Why did string Eddard along about the he twincest? Why didn't he lay it all out for them? 

Well, because he also wanted to exploit them, of course. The dagger lie helps him to get them to trust him. But he makes it clear he doesn't want them to act on that. He doesn't tell them about the twincest because he doesn't want Stannis to succeed Robert. And that's also the reason why he eventually betrays Ned because Ned simply insist to make Stannis the next king.

And to be clear - I think Littlefinger wanted to replace Ned and marry Cat after he had gotten a great lordship. That would have been his original goal. Lysa was just plan B.

But when he realized Cat wasn't interested, and when he saw Sansa for the first time he had a new plan. And in that plan Ned might not need to die. If Ned had gone along with his Joffrey-Renly plan he would have helped install Ned as the Lord Regent, in exchange for sharing his power at the very top and, of course, Sansa's hand. And then they would have been family. They could have actually worked together, as ridiculously as this sounds from our POV.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

How do you know that it is not Littlefinger's goal to make Ned the Hand. Littlefinger and Lysa know Cat. They can guess at the fact that she would like her husband to be the Hand, and they can predict what she would tell him after she reads the letter.

The point of the letter - or Littlefinger's entire scheming in AGoT - is to make Ned the Hand. And, presumably, to get Cat to KL, too, so that he can finally continue their relationship. He has no idea about there is a 'replacement Cat' in Sansa up there.

If Ned had stayed up in the North whatever tensions there were between him and the Lannisters would have been completely irrelevant. The Starks would have continued to be a non-player in the political sphere.

In the long run, Littlefinger doesn't really want to cause a war between Casterly Rock and Winterfell. He wants to advance himself. For the last decade he did that with the help of Lysa and Jon Arryn. Now he intends to do it with the help of Catelyn and Eddard Stark. He can also work with the Lannisters, of course, but they are not his favorite allies. He actually wanted to work with Ned and Cat. If Ned and Cat's marriage had been as happy as Jon and Lysa's - and Cat had given him any indication that she was willing to continue the romance he believed they had had, once - then Lord Petyr Baelish may have ended at Cat's side as Lord Protector of the North instead of the Lord Protector of the Vale.

Because Ned is largely unknown to Littlefinger, while he has had plenty of time to take a measure of Jaime to realize he is reckless, arrogant and heedless -- just the kind of hand who could produce the most chaos. But in the end it doesn't matter to him; he can work the angles not matter who wears the chain.

How can you possibly know what the point of the letter was? We're never given its contents other than that the Lanns killed JA, and Catelyn states unequivocally that it was a warning. So from that are we to deduce that after 15 years Littlefinger thinks he knows Cat well enough (and Ned not at all) that he can use reverse psychology to induce Ned to come south? Littlefinger knows as well as Tyrion that Ned cannot refuse a royal command. If Robert wants Ned to be hand, Ned will be hand.

Sure, Ned at Winterfell takes them out of the game for a while. But with Jaime as hand there are plenty of ways to foment discord with Riverrun, Highgarden, Sunspear, even the Eyrie.

Littlefinger doesn't want war between WF and CR? Well, he sure does his damnedest to bring it about. But like you said, his plan at this point could have gone in multiple directions no matter who is hand.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I know that, but what on earth makes you think Littlefinger - who never even met Ned - would have the same (likely correct) assessment of the situation. And, you know, depending how this Bran thing had went Ned sure as hell could have decided to resign as Hand. That would have been within his rights.

Littlefinger knows Robert, and Robert is a king who does not take refusal kindly. But sure, Ned could have called on their long years of friendship to ask a boon a Robert, and Robert might have granted it. But this is irrelevant to Littlefinger because he can get more chaos out of Jaime than Ned.

Honestly, are you saying that all of LF's plans hinged on Ned becoming hand? That if this one thing did not work out for him his entire plan would have just withered away into nothing?

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, Renly surely showed up for some reason in the party there. Cersei would have been curious to find out what was going on. She could not afford to hang out with children the entire day. Sandor being absent is odd but one assumes that Sandor would actually have been the one to kill Sansa on Cersei's orders should Cersei and Joffrey truly have wanted Sansa dead. Cersei would never give such a task to Joffrey.

The official story is that the council sent them to provide an honor guard for the king. But the realm is at peace, the harvests are good and there is no great discord between the major houses. What would these three knights need to discuss for an entire day with the queen but not the king?

I'm not saying that Cersei wanted Sansa dead, just soiled. Killing her would be Joffrey's doing, and he doesn't need the Hound for that.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Joff isn't smart enough for such a plan. Nor at this point corrupted enough. He honestly wanted to find and visit the place where his daddy Robert slew Rhaegar Targaryen. There is nothing mysterious about that.

What plan? Get her drunk, push her into the river and hold her down until she drowns, then run back to camp with a story about a terrible accident.

Joffrey is woefully corrupted at this point. We agree that he sent that catspaw, right? I don't see how you can get more corrupted than murdering a crippled, comatose boy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Soiled by who for who?

Robert had to acknowledge his bastard because she was a Florent.

You are suggesting that a match that the King has made between his son and his Lord Paramount Hand would be broken because Joff sampled the goods too soon?

Yes, especially if Cersei made a stink about it. They had to have Margaery swear to the Seven that she was still a maiden before she could marry Joffrey. This is a feudal society where wantonness is taboo, especially for women. They are not going to let their boy prince marry anyone but the purest of virgins. Robert would have to accede to this because it would taint the rest of his dynasty. And besides, in a few short years Ned's other daughter will be old enough to marry. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, because he also wanted to exploit them, of course. The dagger lie helps him to get them to trust him.

He would have gained their trust by not playing deceitful games. He never did earn Eddard's trust because Eddard could smell a rat even if he didn't quite know how to exterminate it. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But he makes it clear he doesn't want them to act on that.

Why wouldn't he? If he wants to be on team Stark, why wouldn't he want to help team Stark? 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He doesn't tell them about the twincest because he doesn't want Stannis to succeed Robert. And that's also the reason why he eventually betrays Ned because Ned simply insist to make Stannis the next king.

If he had actually helped Catelyn and Eddard instead of played them Robert might have lived to smash House Lannister and take a new wife (perhaps Margaery). 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And to be clear - I think Littlefinger wanted to replace Ned and marry Cat after he had gotten a great lordship. That would have been his original goal. Lysa was just plan B.

So, he was stringing Eddard along, expecting him to convince Robert to name him lord of what? And then he was going to off Eddard how? And then Catelyn was going to wed him, all while Lysa was tucked away in the Eyrie? 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But when he realized Cat wasn't interested, 

And when was that? 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

and when he saw Sansa for the first time he had a new plan. And in that plan Ned might not need to die. If Ned had gone along with his Joffrey-Renly plan he would have helped install Ned as the Lord Regent, in exchange for sharing his power at the very top and, of course, Sansa's hand. And then they would have been family. They could have actually worked together, as ridiculously as this sounds from our POV.

If that's what he wanted (I'm assuming you mean by the time of the tourney), why didn't he work on that with Eddard from the time of the tourney? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, because he also wanted to exploit them, of course. The dagger lie helps him to get them to trust him. But he makes it clear he doesn't want them to act on that. He doesn't tell them about the twincest because he doesn't want Stannis to succeed Robert. And that's also the reason why he eventually betrays Ned because Ned simply insist to make Stannis the next king.

And to be clear - I think Littlefinger wanted to replace Ned and marry Cat after he had gotten a great lordship. That would have been his original goal. Lysa was just plan B.

But when he realized Cat wasn't interested, and when he saw Sansa for the first time he had a new plan. And in that plan Ned might not need to die. If Ned had gone along with his Joffrey-Renly plan he would have helped install Ned as the Lord Regent, in exchange for sharing his power at the very top and, of course, Sansa's hand. And then they would have been family. They could have actually worked together, as ridiculously as this sounds from our POV.

I think Baelish preventing Stannis from taking the Throne is one of Baelish's primary motivations. Stannis at best would remove him from the Council and send him back to the Fingers. He knows the Lannisters are already moving against Robert and any overt move would cause the Lannister to hasten their plan to kill Robert.

Luckily for him none of the Great Lords really like Stannis or would support him in war. Cersei is Queen, Jaime is on the KL, Pycelle is Tywin's man. Even Ned notices how many Lannisters are in KL and the lack of Baratheon men. That's one of the reasons he needs Ned in KL to keep the Lannisters in check.

Also I pretty certainly he has his hand in the whole Renly plan to bring Margaery to court to replace Cersei. 

I agree he would have worked with Ned until Ned insisted that Stannis be King. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

What plan? Get her drunk, push her into the river and hold her down until she drowns, then run back to camp with a story about a terrible accident.

Joffrey is woefully corrupted at this point. We agree that he sent that catspaw, right? I don't see how you can get more corrupted than murdering a crippled, comatose boy.

What makes you think anyone had harmful intent towards Sansa in any event?  All I see is a boy trying to impress a girl - who happens to be his betrothed.  I am also unaware of any animus by Cersei towards Sansa at that point.  I think if something like this had been contemplated we would have heard about it in Cersei's POV.

As for his sending of the catspaw, it was intended as a mercy killing.  He probably thought he was doing everyone a favor.  Idiotic but hardly corrupted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I edited the OP for clarification.

BTW, where was Sandor while Joffrey was entertaining Sansa on their trip? It seems that if Joffrey wants to be alone, he knows how to arrange it.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Because Ned is largely unknown to Littlefinger, while he has had plenty of time to take a measure of Jaime to realize he is reckless, arrogant and heedless -- just the kind of hand who could produce the most chaos. But in the end it doesn't matter to him; he can work the angles not matter who wears the chain.

Just to clarify - do you think Jaime would have been Hand if Ned had declined? That is by no means clear. The conversation between Jaime and Cersei Bran overhears indicates that it was equally likely from their point of view that Robert might have named Stannis, Renly, or Littlefinger. Robert later threatens Ned to name Jaime in his place but that is a threat to keep him in line, not necessarily a reflection of his actual plans.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

How can you possibly know what the point of the letter was? We're never given its contents other than that the Lanns killed JA, and Catelyn states unequivocally that it was a warning. So from that are we to deduce that after 15 years Littlefinger thinks he knows Cat well enough (and Ned not at all) that he can use reverse psychology to induce Ned to come south? Littlefinger knows as well as Tyrion that Ned cannot refuse a royal command. If Robert wants Ned to be hand, Ned will be hand.

Well, the intention of the letter is pretty clear. Lysa praises Littlefinger as being clever when she mentions the letter in ASoS. There was a purpose to the letter, and it was not to warn anyone. After all, they had killed Jon Arryn, so why on earth should they warn anyone about the Lannisters?

You don't have to be a genius to pick up on the Stark-Lannister tensions nor to predict what one of Jon Arryn's best friends would do if he had reason to believe the man had been murdered by the Lannisters.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, Ned at Winterfell takes them out of the game for a while. But with Jaime as hand there are plenty of ways to foment discord with Riverrun, Highgarden, Sunspear, even the Eyrie.

Again, what makes you think Jaime would have been Hand?

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Littlefinger doesn't want war between WF and CR? Well, he sure does his damnedest to bring it about. But like you said, his plan at this point could have gone in multiple directions no matter who is hand.

Littlefinger neither foresaw nor planned Tyrion's arrest. And it is that thing that triggers the entire war. He fueled suspicions, but it is Tywin and Catelyn who begin that war. The whole thing puts the Starks at a disadvantage - if things had gone differently, if Cat had never met Tyrion on the road, then Tywin might have stayed out of the whole thing for quite some time.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Littlefinger knows Robert, and Robert is a king who does not take refusal kindly. But sure, Ned could have called on their long years of friendship to ask a boon a Robert, and Robert might have granted it. But this is irrelevant to Littlefinger because he can get more chaos out of Jaime than Ned.

Note that it is indeed the letter that makes Ned accept Robert's offer. He intended to decline it prior to the letter, no matter the offer to marry Sansa to Joffrey or Catelyn's ambitions. If Littlefinger wanted Ned not to become Hand he would have had Lysa to write a rather different letter, one that would really convince them to stay away from court.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Honestly, are you saying that all of LF's plans hinged on Ned becoming hand? That if this one thing did not work out for him his entire plan would have just withered away into nothing?

No, I'm saying that Littlefinger wanted Ned to be Hand, and that's what he got. He was not dependent on that happening, of course. But it is what he wanted to happen.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The official story is that the council sent them to provide an honor guard for the king. But the realm is at peace, the harvests are good and there is no great discord between the major houses. What would these three knights need to discuss for an entire day with the queen but not the king?

I don't know. Perhaps the Targaryen situation? Dany's wedding plans? Stannis' retreat to Dragonstone?

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm not saying that Cersei wanted Sansa dead, just soiled. Killing her would be Joffrey's doing, and he doesn't need the Hound for that.

Joffrey isn't a murderer. He never kills anyone with his own hands.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

What plan? Get her drunk, push her into the river and hold her down until she drowns, then run back to camp with a story about a terrible accident.

He is the one who got drunk, though, isn't he?

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Joffrey is woefully corrupted at this point. We agree that he sent that catspaw, right? I don't see how you can get more corrupted than murdering a crippled, comatose boy.

You do know that Joffrey was actually trying to do the right thing there, right? His royal father had said the Stark boy should be taken out of his misery, and that's what Joffrey tried to do in his own way. It was a mercy killing, a kindness, not the deeded of twisted and evil mind.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

He would have gained their trust by not playing deceitful games. He never did earn Eddard's trust because Eddard could smell a rat even if he didn't quite know how to exterminate it. 

Note that the dagger actually belonged to King Robert. Now, what do you think would have happened if Littlefinger had told Ned that, and if Ned had later confronted Robert about that? What would Robert have done when he had realized that Joffrey may have taken the dagger and tried to kill his best friend's son on the basis of something he, Robert, had said? How long would Ned have remained Hand in such a scenario...?

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why wouldn't he? If he wants to be on team Stark, why wouldn't he want to help team Stark? 

Littlefinger keeps the Starks on edge - after all, Cersei is actually plotting to get Ned killed - without getting them to do anything foolish.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If he had actually helped Catelyn and Eddard instead of played them Robert might have lived to smash House Lannister and take a new wife (perhaps Margaery). 

For the time being Stannis would have been the heir presumptive, and arresting/executing Cersei, Jaime, and the children would have meant war with Casterly Rock. How likely is it that the fat drunkard Robert would have survived another war?

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So, he was stringing Eddard along, expecting him to convince Robert to name him lord of what? And then he was going to off Eddard how? And then Catelyn was going to wed him, all while Lysa was tucked away in the Eyrie? 

Well, I'm sure Littlefinger wanted Robert to die eventually. With Ned as Lord Regent he could have become the Hand at his side, say, and then he could have gotten Dragonstone,or some other great seat they were freeing from their previous owner while fighting to keep King Joffrey and subsequently King Renly on the throne.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And when was that? 

When she showed up at court, of course. I think you realize that he made advances there, at least originally, but realized very quickly that things were not going as he would like them to go.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If that's what he wanted (I'm assuming you mean by the time of the tourney), why didn't he work on that with Eddard from the time of the tourney? 

In a sense, he did. He did everything he could to keep him in the city, he helped him to figure out the twincest without spilling the beans himself, and when Robert died he actually made a good suggestion as to how they should proceed.

What do you think Littlefinger would have done if Ned had accepted his offer? Do you think he would have betrayed him then, too?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, especially if Cersei made a stink about it. They had to have Margaery swear to the Seven that she was still a maiden before she could marry Joffrey. This is a feudal society where wantonness is taboo, especially for women. They are not going to let their boy prince marry anyone but the purest of virgins. Robert would have to accede to this because it would taint the rest of his dynasty. And besides, in a few short years Ned's other daughter will be old enough to marry. 

I get wet when it rains therefore when I am wet it must be raining.

You do not seem to understand the value of a virgin.  Firstly a marriage needs to be consummated to be legal, if she was a virgin she was not truly married.  More importantly if she is a virgin there is no doubt that Joffery and not Renly is the father of the future heir to the throne.

I won't bother trying to explain how Joffery can not soil his own betrothed.  Should he take Sansa maiden head her choice would be marry him or be soiled and marry beneath her.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is just no way for LF to influence Joffrey to kill Bran. He might help developing Joffreys personality the way it turned out to be but no direct influence on that decision.

And both Joffrey and Mance Rayder sending an assassin after Bran makes sense only Joffrey has more text that implies that it could be him but there is no profs. While Mance has better motive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/15/2017 at 11:07 PM, Ygrain said:

And Starks are not Free Folk. Why would he bother with what happens to their child, why would he hire someone and not do the deed himself, and where did he get the money and the Valyrian dagger?

He has the money for sure, he stole the dagger from Robert's arsenal and he sent an assassin because he had to leave and go back north while his assassin would do the work after some time when things calm down. Why do Stark customs have anything to do with Free Folk here. I'm not claiming Mance killed him because it was Free Folk tradition, I just said morality isn't stopping him from killing a child to cause a fight between Westerosi houses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

What makes you think anyone had harmful intent towards Sansa in any event?  All I see is a boy trying to impress a girl - who happens to be his betrothed.  I am also unaware of any animus by Cersei towards Sansa at that point.  I think if something like this had been contemplated we would have heard about it in Cersei's POV.

As for his sending of the catspaw, it was intended as a mercy killing.  He probably thought he was doing everyone a favor.  Idiotic but hardly corrupted.

All good points, and I am in no way claiming that this is what actually happened, just that it could have happened. It is just very strange that the crown prince and the daughter of a high lord would be allowed to ride off alone in strange territory with no one to guard them. At all other times -- in Winterfell, in the Red Keep and other secure locations -- they are constantly shadowed by her septa and his dog.

And sorry, even at that point in the book, the idea that Joffrey would perform a mercy killing runs directly counter to his character.

15 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I edited the OP for clarification.

BTW, where was Sandor while Joffrey was entertaining Sansa on their trip? It seems that if Joffrey wants to be alone, he knows how to arrange it.

 

The last we saw of him, Joffrey told him to back off because "you're scaring my betrothed." But Joffrey most certainly does not have the authority to tell the Hound to get lost for good so he can go wherever he wants. The Hound is his protection, and if anything were to happen to the crown prince because the Hound was not there, we'd have a headless hound.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Just to clarify - do you think Jaime would have been Hand if Ned had declined? That is by no means clear. The conversation between Jaime and Cersei Bran overhears indicates that it was equally likely from their point of view that Robert might have named Stannis, Renly, or Littlefinger. Robert later threatens Ned to name Jaime in his place but that is a threat to keep him in line, not necessarily a reflection of his actual plans.

He was the leading contender. Cersei certainly would have championed him, for whatever that is worth. Neither Stannis nor Renly, nor Littlefinger had any chance of being hand. Perhaps Selmy. Yes, Robert threatens Ned with Jaime later, so if he really wanted Ned to be hand in the beginning, there is no reason why he wouldn't threaten him then as well.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the intention of the letter is pretty clear. Lysa praises Littlefinger as being clever when she mentions the letter in ASoS. There was a purpose to the letter, and it was not to warn anyone. After all, they had killed Jon Arryn, so why on earth should they warn anyone about the Lannisters?

You don't have to be a genius to pick up on the Stark-Lannister tensions nor to predict what one of Jon Arryn's best friends would do if he had reason to believe the man had been murdered by the Lannisters.

Well, if it wasn't meant to warn anyone then they certainly muffed it very badly, because that is exactly what Catelyn thinks it is. Lysa praising Littlefinger for being clever is like a mouse praising an elephant for being large -- everybody is clever compared to Lysa. Even with the letter, Ned's acceptance was a toss-up -- it wasn't Catelyn who pointed out the hand's ability to bring justice to the killer, it was Luwin.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, what makes you think Jaime would have been Hand?

If offered, Cersei would make certain that Jaime accepted.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger neither foresaw nor planned Tyrion's arrest. And it is that thing that triggers the entire war. He fueled suspicions, but it is Tywin and Catelyn who begin that war. The whole thing puts the Starks at a disadvantage - if things had gone differently, if Cat had never met Tyrion on the road, then Tywin might have stayed out of the whole thing for quite some time.

Littlefinger only told the lie that fingered Tyrion for the attempt on Bran. No matter how that played out it would have stirred up a hornet's nest. Chaos does not necessarily require all-out war.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Note that it is indeed the letter that makes Ned accept Robert's offer. He intended to decline it prior to the letter, no matter the offer to marry Sansa to Joffrey or Catelyn's ambitions. If Littlefinger wanted Ned not to become Hand he would have had Lysa to write a rather different letter, one that would really convince them to stay away from court.

People often make the mistake that just because things worked out a certain way, that is what Littlefinger planned all along. It's the same with Catelyn and Tyrion -- he can stir things up, but he cannot predict every possible outcome. He pivots no matter what happens, and if Ned didn't take the job, LF would have pivoted. And this is assuming that Joffrey could actually pull off an assassination, which is highly doubtful.

As I've said multiple times, he doesn't not want Ned to become hand. He'll work with whatever outcome emerges from his tampering.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, I'm saying that Littlefinger wanted Ned to be Hand, and that's what he got. He was not dependent on that happening, of course. But it is what he wanted to happen.

Well, if he is not dependent on Ned becoming hand, it was just a preferred outcome, than I don't see what we're arguing about. Littlefinger could muck with whomever became hand, Ned, Jaime, Selmy, someone else. And since the probability of Joff actually succeeding is extremely low, this is a low-risk, high-reward operation.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't know. Perhaps the Targaryen situation? Dany's wedding plans? Stannis' retreat to Dragonstone?

And they would need to discuss these issues with the queen but not the king? Sorry, try again.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Joffrey isn't a murderer. He never kills anyone with his own hands.

He is the one who got drunk, though, isn't he?

Lol, he only pays someone to do his murdering for him. That still makes him a murderer. No reason to think that, given the opportunity and the motive, he couldn't do it himself. He nearly took Arya's head off with Lion's Tooth.

Sansa didn't notice if he was drunk. Her head was spinning because she drank more wine then ever. "My father only lets us have one cup, and only at feasts." "My betrothed can drink as much as she wants," Joffrey said, refilling her cup.

Interesting, too, that they had trout for lunch. Seafood is said to be an aphrodisiac.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You do know that Joffrey was actually trying to do the right thing there, right? His royal father had said the Stark boy should be taken out of his misery, and that's what Joffrey tried to do in his own way. It was a mercy killing, a kindness, not the deeded of twisted and evil mind.

If you believe that, then I truly feel sorry for you. When has Joffrey ever "done the right thing." Putting the words "Joffrey", "mercy killing" and "kindness" is a non sequitur of the highest order.

10 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

I get wet when it rains therefore when I am wet it must be raining.

You do not seem to understand the value of a virgin.  Firstly a marriage needs to be consummated to be legal, if she was a virgin she was not truly married.  More importantly if she is a virgin there is no doubt that Joffery and not Renly is the father of the future heir to the throne.

I won't bother trying to explain how Joffery can not soil his own betrothed.  Should he take Sansa maiden head her choice would be marry him or be soiled and marry beneath her.

No, sorry. The shame would be all on her, even if Joffrey forced himself on her. That's the way it was in feudal times, and still is in many parts of the world. We're not in a 21st Century post-enlightened society here. The people, and the church, will only have a bride of the most pure virtue for their bonnie prince.

10 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

There is just no way for LF to influence Joffrey to kill Bran. He might help developing Joffreys personality the way it turned out to be but no direct influence on that decision.

And both Joffrey and Mance Rayder sending an assassin after Bran makes sense only Joffrey has more text that implies that it could be him but there is no profs. While Mance has better motive.

Read my first post. Before they even left King's Landing, LF could have convinced Joffrey that only the death of a Stark child could prevent Ned from becoming hand. If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey could have chosen any of the other children.

I'm not saying this is what happened, just that this is how LF could have influenced Joffrey without knowing about the fall or anything else happening in Winterfell.

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...