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Amazon and WB discussing new LORD OF THE RINGS TV series


Werthead

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I liked Smaugh in um, the second Hobbit film? Yeah. That was great until it turned into a video game. Heck the stuff from the actual book that made it to the screen in The Hobbit films was pretty good. There's a mash up of all three movies out there called "The Tolkien Cut" that i guess is about 2.5 hours and actually pretty good.

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In Unexpected Journey I liked most of the party scene and the Riddles Game. I actually liked Freeman as Bilbo, at least as a casting choice, but felt Bilbo's character was underserved by the films. Desolation... I really struggle to remember anything positive about it. Battle... I liked some of the build-up scenes and the end scene where Bilbo returns home was good. I remember watching them and feeling like Richard Armitage would have made a good Aragorn, to be honest. 

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1 hour ago, SpaceChampion said:

A billion on LOTR for 5 seasons doesn't seem out of line, given HBO has spent more than $750 million on 8 seasons of GOT.  If LOTR is 10 episodes per season that is $20M per episode.  G0T is more than $15M.

I think the number for GoT's total production cost is under $700 million, and I actually think the total figure is closer to $600 million. And 8 seasons of Game of Thrones at 73 total episodes means just over $8 million an episode.

But the other thing is that costs go up, not down, as a series progresses. Maybe the LotR figure is taking this into account, but it seems very plausible that they're planning to make a splash with a $200 million first season on the expectation that they'll be able to hold that figure for the rest of the seasons, and they just won't. Or maybe they can, and people will wonder why it's looking worse and more shoddily constructed as it goes on, as cast and crew costs go up but the budget doesn't go up to match (ala TWD).

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6 hours ago, Ran said:

I think the number for GoT's total production cost is under $700 million, and I actually think the total figure is closer to $600 million. And 8 seasons of Game of Thrones at 73 total episodes means just over $8 million an episode.

I don't think that is accurate.  It started about $6-7M but it's now up to $15M per ep.   https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/09/game-of-thrones-how-much-does-the-final-season-8-cost-per-episode-15-million

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12 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

I don't think that is accurate.  It started about $6-8M but it's now up to $15M per ep.  They needed respectable increase in season 2 as well.  https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/09/game-of-thrones-how-much-does-the-final-season-8-cost-per-episode-15-million

$60 mil first season, $70 mil second season $90 for S8. You're not going to get a $15 mil per episode average with these numbers across all episodes.

 

ETA: Okay, did more digging:

 

S1: 60M

S2: 70M

S3: Rumored to be less than S2, but we'll say 70M

S4: 80M

S5: Said to be just over 8m per episode, so we'll say 85M

S6: 100m

S7: 70m

S8: 90m

 

Grand total is $625 million in estimated production costs, against 73 episodes, equalling $8.56 million per epiosde on average.

Amazon is supposedly considering spending 2.5 times as much.

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20 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

I don't think that is accurate.  It started about $6-7M but it's now up to $15M per ep.   https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/09/game-of-thrones-how-much-does-the-final-season-8-cost-per-episode-15-million

That article specifically says that in the last few years (meaning Seasons 3-7, but more likely Seasons 5-7, IIRC as they were commissioned together) got $10M per episode. Only the last season will be $15M per episode, which as @Ran says will amount to $90M. Which means that GoT production is around $700M, as Ran stated.

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Seasons 6, 7 and 8 of GoT all had a budget of $100 million each, split between 10, 7 and 6 episodes respectively (and this is the general figure; word on the down low is that Seasons 7 and 8 will have a lot more when one-off effects payments are taken into considering and vastly more with marketing).

HBO I think only confirmed the $15 million per episode as a rough figure for S8, but it's $100 million divided six ways (or some other creative accounting methodology is used). Certainly there's never been a budget cut between seasons for GoT, regardless of the number of episodes.

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I'm always perplexed at how a show that's popular requires more marketing than it did when less popular. I would have thought by now HBO could spend nothing at all on promoting the show and people would know when it was coming out and watch it.

Guess there's a reason I don't work in marketing

 

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Seasons 6, 7 and 8 of GoT all had a budget of $100 million each, split between 10, 7 and 6 episodes respectively (and this is the general figure; word on the down low is that Seasons 7 and 8 will have a lot more when one-off effects payments are taken into considering and vastly more with marketing).

Everything I've found says $15 million an episode for S8 (in particular, that's Variety's quote, and they tend to have good sources on the financials). As to S7, it's only a single reference from cinematographer Robert McLachlan that the S7 budget was the same as that of the previous season, and I don't know how far to take that as being, necessarily, accurate. If we split the difference between S6 and S8, then S7 is $87.5m, which doesn't change the fact that the GoT overall per episode budget is substantially less than what Apple is talking about.

 

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Certainly there's never been a budget cut between seasons for GoT, regardless of the number of episodes.

There were distinct claims that S3 actually cost substantially less than S2. I don't really believe it, but still, it definitely was no more expensive than S2. If it were really $50 million for that season, that lowers my estimate.

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Doesn't that $1 billion cost for Lord of the Rings include the $250 million up-front payment for the rights? It's more like $750 million for five seasons, or $150 million per season ($15 million/episode).

It could creep upwards over time, but a well-done Lord of the Rings TV series will be such a money machine that paying $25 million/episode in the 4th or 5th season isn't going to be much of a show-stopper for Amazon. And a Lord of the Rings show will have some advantages in keeping costs down, such as a potentially more limited cast and limited set of filming locations per season.

11 hours ago, Ran said:

There were distinct claims that S3 actually cost substantially less than S2. I don't really believe it, but still, it definitely was no more expensive than S2.

No large-scale battles, at least. Maybe that saved money.

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11 hours ago, Ran said:

Everything I've found says $15 million an episode for S8 (in particular, that's Variety's quote, and they tend to have good sources on the financials). As to S7, it's only a single reference from cinematographer Robert McLachlan that the S7 budget was the same as that of the previous season, and I don't know how far to take that as being, necessarily, accurate. If we split the difference between S6 and S8, then S7 is $87.5m, which doesn't change the fact that the GoT overall per episode budget is substantially less than what Apple is talking about.

 

There were distinct claims that S3 actually cost substantially less than S2. I don't really believe it, but still, it definitely was no more expensive than S2. If it were really $50 million for that season, that lowers my estimate.

I think it's plausible in seasons 2-3 that the money was able to be distributed in different ways. The first season always costs a lot upfront due to set design, costumes, etc, etc. Season 2 and 3 shouldn't require as much of this as it's already there. And because this is before actors can start negotiating higher salaries etc (as they are probably locked in a contract still) the money can be used for promotion, special effects etc.

I think it's why a lot of genre shows last 2-3 seasons before buckling. The people making the show know it costs a lot upfront so they may as well see if the show catches on before having to make big decisions on going into 4+.

It's why I'm hoping this season of the Expanse is a success!

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  • 1 month later...

No surprise there. The appendices for LOTR have the basic outline of a potential story: Aragorn raised at Rivendell and hanging out with Elrond's sons, Aragorn heading south in disguise as Thorongil and leading the effort to burn the Umbar fleet, Aragorn heading really far south across the equator ("where the stars are strange"), Aragorn heading far east and coming back to meet Arwen at Lothlorien, Aragorn and Gandalf hunting for Gollum. That's five potential seasons right there, if they can flesh it out successfully. 

No news on whether they managed to bribe Jackson to come back for part of it yet. The temptation for that has got to be strong - IIRC, they have to have a season of the show within two years of optioning the rights. 

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I'm pinning my hopes on the Aragorn arc being confined to the first season, because at least there's enough material to work with there (but not enough for five seasons). If they want another Game of Thrones though, they've made a serious mistake - the stakes aren't high enough.

My own curiosity is how they treat Denethor:

https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2018/05/17/so-it-is-young-aragorn/

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1 hour ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

I'm pinning my hopes on the Aragorn arc being confined to the first season, because at least there's enough material to work with there (but not enough for five seasons). If they want another Game of Thrones though, they've made a serious mistake - the stakes aren't high enough.

My own curiosity is how they treat Denethor:

https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2018/05/17/so-it-is-young-aragorn/

While it's certainly not as major as razing Umbar I think you are skipping over some potential GOT style stuff in Rohan.  Fengel is supposed to be this big ass (who you could also play as hating Gondor due to his brothers's deaths) and so could intruduce Aragorn to the general shittyness of men.  You could fudge things a bit and make it so instead of Thengel leaving Fengel's court due to Fengel being a piece of shit, you could also have him follow Thorongil into Gondor and so because of Aragorn he meets his Gondorian wife and then Theden is around due to Aragorn.

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Correction on my part - Amazon doesn't need to have a season produced in two years. They just need to have started production within two years of optioning the rights (which would mean they need to start production by November 2019). 

 

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Starting earlier than I expected, it seems likely, but makes sense. The Thorongil period in Rohan and Gondor could be something for a later season, if they want to move things ahead.

That said, wow, TORN is run by extremely optimistic boosters of any adaptation: "James, it will be canon.  Amazon has INITIALLY spent $500 mil. on Tolkien’s published book rights, in cooperation with the Tolkien Estate themselves!"

The fuck? That's not how canon works.

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14 hours ago, Ran said:

Starting earlier than I expected, it seems likely, but makes sense. The Thorongil period in Rohan and Gondor could be something for a later season, if they want to move things ahead.

That said, wow, TORN is run by extremely optimistic boosters of any adaptation: "James, it will be canon.  Amazon has INITIALLY spent $500 mil. on Tolkien’s published book rights, in cooperation with the Tolkien Estate themselves!"

The fuck? That's not how canon works.

They've also gotten that wrong. It was $250 million they spent on the rights and will be now spending $150 million per season, after Netflix refused to pay $100 million (and HBO apparently let New Line make the pitch and then effectively laughed them out of the room). I'm not sure where the $500 million for the rights alone came from, that's beyond preposterous.

I think Amazon are massively overreaching here, personally. I can see people tuning in out of curiosity, but without a strong, gripping narrative they're not going to retain viewership. "See what Aragorn got up to when he was a kid, only with none of your favourite actors in it!" doesn't have that much pull.

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