Jump to content

What will Iron Bank do if NW doesn't pay debts?


Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Not necessarily...

 

 

Wouldn’t that require the FM finding the alley where Arya dumped Dareon and fishing him out to remove his face before he rots/spoils? Something that would’ve happened quicker with him being in water?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Wouldn’t that require the FM finding the alley where Arya dumped Dareon and fishing him out to remove his face before he rots/spoils? Something that would’ve happened quicker with him being in water?

No... I am suggesting that the Faceless Men use all sorts of tricks to effect a glamor. So, perhaps Arya might be able to appear to be Dareon without taking his face, the way Mance was able to appear to be the Lord of Bones. I am not saying it will happen, just that we should see it coming if it does. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

No... I am suggesting that the Faceless Men use all sorts of tricks to effect a glamor. So, perhaps Arya might be able to appear to be Dareon without taking his face, the way Mance was able to appear to be the Lord of Bones. I am not saying it will happen, just that we should see it coming if it does. 

Good point. Lord of bones is much shorter than Mance if I recall and Mance can still be glamored to his likeness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I always saw Tycho as a man trying to get his hooks 'deeper' into Westeros at a pivotal time. It's a two-fold thing for Tycho. With Stannis and Jon in his pocket, he not only funds the opposition to the current dynasty, he's hedging his bets so whoever wins, he wins. 

We've been told on a number of occasions, 'the IB will have it's due'. I strongly believe that through Tycho's actions, we will see first hand how this happens. 

As for the NW specifically, it's complicated. They're supposed to be autonomous from the 7K. They have a very unique position of neutrality which Jon has fully exploited already. We've seen first hand how the NW can be used to facilitate rebellions. We also know that the NW is currently on it's ass. It's a bunch of dilapidated castles stuck to a big slab of ice. But it was so much more. Jon is currently restoring it. Tycho is the financial backer. With nothing but the loot from the Wildlings, Tycho could be fairly certain that ownership of this autonomous faction could fall into the hands of the IB. 

I guess there's a tiny chance that Tycho identifies the Wall as a legit cause that ultimately could save a lot of lives(money) and prevent the Others from killing everyone that owes them money. I just think it's more likely that a man of his sort would be playing a long game of his own, and sees the wall as a worthy long term investment that will strengthen the IB's position. Of all the fortifications in Westeros, the wall is easily the most impressive and the most important. 

It's clear that the Iron Bank have heavily invested in Westeros and they will want a say whoever winds up on the Iron throne. What better leverage than the one fortification they all rely on?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Lollygag said:

The bolded: it really looks like she was recruited because she was a Stark and her recruitment looked very targeted.

The problem with suggesting her recruitment was targeted is this:  At the time that Jaqen gave her the coin, Robb was winning, the Freys were still on his side, and the Blackwater hadn't happened yet.  There was every reason to believe that she would be reunited with her family at Riverrun, and the coin would become an interesting souvenir.  And even if that didn't work out, she had other family elsewhere, such as Lysa and Jon.

The only reason she went to Braavos at all was because she had utterly run out of other options, something that couldn't have been foreseen by Jaqen or the FM.  Once they actually had her, her being a Stark would be something they might find useful.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

No... I am suggesting that the Faceless Men use all sorts of tricks to effect a glamor. So, perhaps Arya might be able to appear to be Dareon without taking his face, the way Mance was able to appear to be the Lord of Bones. I am not saying it will happen, just that we should see it coming if it does. 

Interesting suggestion, LM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The IB is basing their investment on the NW being able to settle the wildlings on the NW's land (which is a lot) and collecting taxes on them like all other landowners in Westeros.  As others have pointed out there will likely be increased trade activities with Braavos.  The NW owns the only port in the region and will be able to collect all of the taxes and fees involved in shipping. 

If everything works out the IB will have established a new source of timber.  Which is a pretty big deal considering Braavos is a naval power. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/20/2018 at 5:20 PM, Nevets said:

The problem with suggesting her recruitment was targeted is this:  At the time that Jaqen gave her the coin, Robb was winning, the Freys were still on his side, and the Blackwater hadn't happened yet.  There was every reason to believe that she would be reunited with her family at Riverrun, and the coin would become an interesting souvenir.  And even if that didn't work out, she had other family elsewhere, such as Lysa and Jon.

The only reason she went to Braavos at all was because she had utterly run out of other options, something that couldn't have been foreseen by Jaqen or the FM.  Once they actually had her, her being a Stark would be something they might find useful.  

I don’t see this as any obstacle to the FM as their thing is to jump into situations and find a way to get their desired outcome. And neither Varys nor LF were going to allow someone more competent to take the throne and LF is tied to the IB/FM. I can’t explain all of the details and some things still don’t quite make sense to me, but looking at the whole picture, I can’t see anything but Arya being recruited/conditioned.

Ned was new in town and he just happened to find the first sword to the Sealord of Braavos just hanging out ready to give lessons to little girls? Who recommended Syrio to Ned? And then he started teaching Arya FM sounding things like "Boy, girl," Syrio Forel said. "You are a sword, that is all." And then Jaqen targeted her offering a desperate child who just lost everything and everyone an easy solution to her problems all looking geared to appease her conscience about killing and see it as a solution. I also have trouble believing that the FM just try to recruit random children like that. Why Arya only? Entirely too much coincidence for me. Syrio's and Jaqen's comments to Arya all look like leading Arya to an FM frame of minnd, grooming her to make a certain choice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Lollygag said:

I don’t see this as any obstacle to the FM as their thing is to jump into situations and find a way to get their desired outcome. And neither Varys nor LF were going to allow someone more competent to take the throne and LF is tied to the IB/FM. I can’t explain all of the details and some things still don’t quite make sense to me, but looking at the whole picture, I can’t see anything but Arya being recruited/conditioned.

Ned was new in town and he just happened to find the first sword to the Sealord of Braavos just hanging out ready to give lessons to little girls? Who recommended Syrio to Ned? And then he started teaching Arya FM sounding things like "Boy, girl," Syrio Forel said. "You are a sword, that is all." And then Jaqen targeted her offering a desperate child who just lost everything and everyone an easy solution to her problems all looking geared to appease her conscience about killing and see it as a solution. I also have trouble believing that the FM just try to recruit random children like that. Why Arya only? Entirely too much coincidence for me. Syrio's and Jaqen's comments to Arya all look like leading Arya to an FM frame of minnd, grooming her to make a certain choice.

 

 

 

I'm not going down this rabbit-hole.   Again.  I pretty much disagree with everything in this post. 

I will merely point out that this post would require a level of fore-knowledge on the part of the FM that goes beyond the ridiculous.  For example, right up until the Red Wedding, the betting odds on her arriving in Braavos were essentially zero, and didn't even get close to even money until she left the Hound.

However, this thread is about the NW, not Arya, and I do not believe that the Iron Bank even knows that she is in Braavos in the first place, much less that they plan to use that fact.  I expect more prosaic measures to get their money back, such as using the Crown as a backstop or obtaining concessions for exploitation of natural resources. 

I do expect that Tycho will take (f)Arya back with him to Braavos, hoping to ingratiate himself with a person likely to be influential in the future in Westeros.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I'm not going down this rabbit-hole.   Again.  I pretty much disagree with everything in this post. 

I will merely point out that this post would require a level of fore-knowledge on the part of the FM that goes beyond the ridiculous.  For example, right up until the Red Wedding, the betting odds on her arriving in Braavos were essentially zero, and didn't even get close to even money until she left the Hound.

However, this thread is about the NW, not Arya, and I do not believe that the Iron Bank even knows that she is in Braavos in the first place, much less that they plan to use that fact.  I expect more prosaic measures to get their money back, such as using the Crown as a backstop or obtaining concessions for exploitation of natural resources. 

I do expect that Tycho will take (f)Arya back with him to Braavos, hoping to ingratiate himself with a person likely to be influential in the future in Westeros.

The bolded - I don't think they're dealing in foreknowledge nor did they need to. If you believe that the FM and IB are so disconnected that the IB doesn't know about Arya nor that LF is involved with the IB/FM to a certain level, he who staged the timely fArya plot, then yes, we're not going to agree. I'll always view the text from the character level and will trust the plot to work out from there later when the time is right for us to be told.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I imagine the Iron bank has protocols in place to deal with entities to which renege upon their agreement; either supporting the deal breaker's enemies or(if the situation is so extreme), perhaps hire an assassin. The Ironbank(as others suggested), would probably pressure the next monarc to punish the watch to forgive some dedt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On April 22, 2018 at 7:57 AM, Lollygag said:

Ned was new in town and he just happened to find the first sword to the Sealord of Braavos just hanging out ready to give lessons to little girls? Who recommended Syrio to Ned? And then he started teaching Arya FM sounding things like "Boy, girl," Syrio Forel said. "You are a sword, that is all." And then Jaqen targeted her offering a desperate child who just lost everything and everyone an easy solution to her problems all looking geared to appease her conscience about killing and see it as a solution. I also have trouble believing that the FM just try to recruit random children like that. Why Arya only? Entirely too much coincidence for me. Syrio's and Jaqen's comments to Arya all look like leading Arya to an FM frame of minnd, grooming her to make a certain choice.

I believe it was Varys who recommended Syrio to Ned. And if not,still to be fair meetings out of pure coincidence that seem to have an astronomical chance of happening have happened in the series multiple times(ex. Briene's meetings with the brave companions in AFFC). But still, yes highly suspect. The words Syrio gives to Illaryio seems very much the rhetoric The Fm would give to potential recruits.  Hell Syreio's taking on Arya as an apprentice in general is suspect; as the first sword of Braavos, surely there are many noble families who'd offer fortunes for the man to train their sons who could reasonably be expected to use such training. Ned doesnt(even though hes one of wealthiest men in Westeroes), strike me as the type of man who would so frivously expend the amount of money and prestige usually offered to Syrio just so Arya can have have this queer hobby to which she'd eventually have abandon in 4 or 5 years in order to become a proper lady and wife.  Also Jaqen's decision to be Braavosi is...peculiar to say the least. Yes, KL is import city,foreigners from essos coming over to isnt so rare it'd cause a scandal but still it needlessly marks him as an outsider by the natives and thus stick out to whoever he speaks to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I believe it was Varys who recommended Syrio to Ned. And if not,still to be fair meetings out of pure coincidence that seem to have an astronomical chance of happening have happened in the series multiple times(ex. Briene's meetings with the brave companions in AFFC). But still, yes highly suspect. The words Syrio gives to Illaryio seems very much the rhetoric The Fm would give to potential recruits.  Hell Syreio's taking on Arya as an apprentice in general is suspect; as the first sword of Braavos, surely there are many noble families who'd offer fortunes for the man to train their sons who could reasonably be expected to use such training. Ned doesnt(even though hes one of wealthiest men in Westeroes), strike me as the type of man who would so frivously expend the amount of money and prestige usually offered to Syrio just so Arya can have have this queer hobby to which she'd eventually have abandon in 4 or 5 years in order to become a proper lady and wife.  Also Jaqen's decision to be Braavosi is...peculiar to say the least. Yes, KL is import city,foreigners from essos coming over to isnt so rare it'd cause a scandal but still it needlessly marks him as an outsider by the natives and thus stick out to whoever he speaks to.

Good points here.

You're right about Ned likely not spending a lot on what he sees as a passing and useless fancy when he seems rather frugal. Which means The First Sword to the Sealord of Braavos is really undercharging. And facepalm, it also hadn't registered about how Jaqen could have been anyone which makes his choice of appearance even more suspect. Revealing his identity and abilities is probably quite the NoNo. And Jaqen would know how to speak normally to be able to blend, but he chose to use the FM speak style with Arya.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I believe it was Varys who recommended Syrio to Ned. And if not,still to be fair meetings out of pure coincidence that seem to have an astronomical chance of happening have happened in the series multiple times(ex. Briene's meetings with the brave companions in AFFC). But still, yes highly suspect. The words Syrio gives to Illaryio seems very much the rhetoric The Fm would give to potential recruits.  Hell Syreio's taking on Arya as an apprentice in general is suspect; as the first sword of Braavos, surely there are many noble families who'd offer fortunes for the man to train their sons who could reasonably be expected to use such training. Ned doesnt(even though hes one of wealthiest men in Westeroes), strike me as the type of man who would so frivously expend the amount of money and prestige usually offered to Syrio just so Arya can have have this queer hobby to which she'd eventually have abandon in 4 or 5 years in order to become a proper lady and wife.  Also Jaqen's decision to be Braavosi is...peculiar to say the least. Yes, KL is import city,foreigners from essos coming over to isnt so rare it'd cause a scandal but still it needlessly marks him as an outsider by the natives and thus stick out to whoever he speaks to.

Well, Jaqen was Lorathi, not Braavosi.

We have no idea how much money Ned was spending on Syrio. There's no reason to assume it was exorbitant. Ned doesn't have a reputation for stinginess - just for practicality. He's not one for ostentation, but there's no sign he was loathe to spend money on his children ... or even his ward. When Theon returns home , Balon takes him to task for wearing velvets and bought silver... well who paid for that? Balon certainly thinks he acquired the taste at Winterfell.

When did Syrio speak to Illyrio? Do you mean Varys?

As I see it, there are one of two options for Syrio. If he is exactly who he says he is, he was formerly the first Sword of Braavos (not currently). As such he would have prestige in Braavos , but not so much in Westeros, where his style of swordsmanship is not too useful in their knightly culture or style of warfare. Westerosi nobles' sons would expect to have little use for the skills of a waterdancer. So why is Syrio in Westeros? He would do better for himself Essos.

OTOH, if Syrio is a faceless man, the original Syrio is most probably dead. Either he's using a full on FM mask (in which case he would "remember" certain memories, etc.,as shown by Arya's experiences) , or he's using a glamour. He might not even need any possession of Syrio's to create it. Syrio's appearance, style of speech etc. would be well known to many Braavosi. And very unlikely to be known to many (if any) Westerosi. (Certainly not to Ned who had spent 15 yrs. largely out of circulation.)

I don't think Syrio/Jaqen set out to recruit Arya. Syrio wanted to get as close to Ned as he could for political purposes(What kind of Hand would he be? How would he affect the politics in KL?). Ned's search for a teacher familiar with the use of swords like Arya's gave Syrio a way to get into the Red Keep and somewhat close to Ned.

Jaqen left only after he thought Arya was safely with her brother's men. But when she didn't reveal herself to them and begged Jaqen not to go, he offered to take her, then gave her the coin, not knowing if she'd ever use it.

If she truly wanted to learn to change her face someday, she could find the HoB&W. And if she changed her mind afterward, or failed her training, he knew they'd settle her in a more suitable life.

I don't think it's precisely right to see her as simple collateral .. they've already offered to return her to Westeros. If she asked to be reunited with Jon,  I think they would accommodate her, but they wouldn't just trade her like a commodity. If she and Jon are reunited though, he'll owe them a further debt of gratitude. He'd come to know that whatever she's become, they've saved her life more than once.

ETA: I think Tobho Mott recommended Syrio.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, bemused said:

As I see it, there are one of two options for Syrio. If he is exactly who he says he is, he was formerly the first Sword of Braavos (not currently). As such he would have prestige in Braavos , but not so much in Westeros, where his style of swordsmanship is not too useful in their knightly culture or style of warfare. Westerosi nobles' sons would expect to have little use for the skills of a waterdancer. So why is Syrio in Westeros? He would do better for himself Essos.

If he, or his patron, lost out in a power struggle, he may have had to leave Braavos, and may find it more conducive to stay in Westeros.

Of course, the most likely reason for his presence in Westeros is that GRRM put him there.:P  It was early in the series, and GRRM likely wasn't expecting microscopic analysis of his story.  Syrio is a very useful plot device to teach Arya some useful skills, give her someone to care about, and to help enable her departure from the Red Keep.  I doubt GRRM thought about it any further than that.

On 4/22/2018 at 5:41 PM, Lollygag said:

The bolded - I don't think they're dealing in foreknowledge nor did they need to. If you believe that the FM and IB are so disconnected that the IB doesn't know about Arya nor that LF is involved with the IB/FM to a certain level, he who staged the timely fArya plot, then yes, we're not going to agree. I'll always view the text from the character level and will trust the plot to work out from there later when the time is right for us to be told.

 

I think that the IB and FM maintain close contacts and may even collaborate from time to time.  That doesn't mean that they are joined at the hip, so to say, or that they share their secrets or their inner workings or even necessarily day-to-day operations, with each other.  So there is no specific reason for the IB to know about Arya, or for that information to filter down to Tycho even if they did.  Or for the IB to necessarily know that the IB is visiting the Wall.

Littlefinger is heavily involved with the IB; he was the Master of Coin, after all.  As for the FM, he may or may not have ties to them.  I go both ways on that one.  In any case, (f)Arya is his secret, and I doubt that he is sharing it around, either.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

I think that the IB and FM maintain close contacts and may even collaborate from time to time.  That doesn't mean that they are joined at the hip, so to say, or that they share their secrets or their inner workings or even necessarily day-to-day operations, with each other.  So there is no specific reason for the IB to know about Arya, or for that information to filter down to Tycho even if they did.  Or for the IB to necessarily know that the IB is visiting the Wall.

Littlefinger is heavily involved with the IB; he was the Master of Coin, after all.  As for the FM, he may or may not have ties to them.  I go both ways on that one.  In any case, (f)Arya is his secret, and I doubt that he is sharing it around, either.  

I think fArya was only a means to an end, not really a secret. So many people have already seen through it as Jeyne looks nothing like Arya or a Stark, LF had to anticipate this.

Your view is reasonable, but because you have the fArya plot, Mel’s vision of Arya, and Alys Karstark who looks like Arya all running along with Tycho showing up combined with Jon’s comments about the loan quoted earlier upthread, I can’t see any way that they’re not tied. I’ve seen it too many times where things mentioned in proximity are connected.

I’m really leaning towards the Sealord/IB/FM all being heads on the same beast (like 3 heads of the dragon?) because I’m not really sure how they maintain their freedom and at least contain slavery if they’re not working very closely together. Otherwise there’s a one hand doesn’t know what the other hand is doing situation and I don’t get how that would be effective and above all things, Braavos is effective. When I look at their origins in Valyria, I can’t see them not being intertwined. But we'll see :dunno:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Nevets said:

I think that the IB and FM maintain close contacts and may even collaborate from time to time.  That doesn't mean that they are joined at the hip, so to say, or that they share their secrets or their inner workings or even necessarily day-to-day operations, with each other.  So there is no specific reason for the IB to know about Arya, or for that information to filter down to Tycho even if they did.  Or for the IB to necessarily know that the IB is visiting the Wall.

I think they are joined at the hip - at least when it comes to clients whose activities could affect the state of Braavos politically, or in important matters of trade.

I see Braavos, (for so long the secret city) as being (secretly) another Essosi triumverate composed of IB, HoB&W, and Sealord. (Or as @Lollygag says, like three heads of the dragon.) Ideally, any two could curb excesses of the third. ... Of course that doesn't mean things can't "gang agley" from time to time - two can also force excesses on a more reasonable third.:rolleyes:

Why wouldn't the IB or Sealord use the espionage talents of the FM to keep them abreast of political developments among their neighbours and important trading partners? They would be foolish not to - after all, it appears that is, in part, exactly what the Alchemist is doing in Oldtown.

I agree there would be no need for the IB to have any awareness of say, the Ugly Girl's request, or who it was that made the contract targeting the insurance broker, nor for the HoB&W to have any awareness of the loans or deposits of most men or women.

The IB may not have had any reason to know about Arya when she first arrived, but I think they could very well know by now. Arya is not the only one with eyes and ears on the docks. They would have heard of Jon's  elevation to LC, they know Stannis has gone to the Wall, they definitely will have heard about the Goodheart and I'm sure someone will have questioned the captive wildlings.

 

8 hours ago, Nevets said:

Littlefinger is heavily involved with the IB; he was the Master of Coin, after all.  As for the FM, he may or may not have ties to them.  I go both ways on that one.  In any case, (f)Arya is his secret, and I doubt that he is sharing it around, either. 

I don't know how heavily he's involved, or what sort of involvement... It seems he's been defrauding the IB as much as the crown. I doubt he has ties to the FM.  Littlefinger's secret will be out once Tycho & co. reach Jon, and I think they will. (Mind you, I don't think Jon is dead, or will be out of commission for long.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, bemused said:

I don't know how heavily he's involved, or what sort of involvement... It seems he's been defrauding the IB as much as the crown. I doubt he has ties to the FM.  Littlefinger's secret will be out once Tycho & co. reach Jon, and I think they will. (Mind you, I don't think Jon is dead, or will be out of commission for long.)

why would you think that Littlefinger defrauded the IB ? Frankly we don't even know for sure that Littlefinger defrauded the crown 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 9 months later...

Though independent of the Seven Kingdoms on paper, the Night's Watch is still held to their oaths by the lords of the Seven Kingdoms.

That's why deserters are executed by people unaffiliated with the Night's Watch, and why they can't have walls to the south. Though kings and lords can't make decisions for the Watch, they still hold power over them should they stray.

With that being said, the balance will likely be added to the Iron Throne's tab.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...