A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

[Chrissie]

So, in A Storm of Swords, Joffery states that he isn't a stranger of Valerian Steel and this causes Tyrion to suspect him of sending the catspaw to kill Bran. He mulls it over later and goes through what he knows but is unable to come up with a possible motive for Joffery. But later Jamie, after making it back to Kings Landing, asks Cersi if she sent the catspaw, she says she didn't but does say that Robert believed Houses should be given the right to kill their disabled children, so Jamie deducts that Joffery sent the catspaw to impress Robert.

Now, I think we are supposed to question Tyrion's logic, the fact that he decides that Joffery must be a stranger to Valerian Steel to choose that dagger negates the reason for him suspecting Joffery in the first place. And that Joffery had to be stupid enough to use a dagger that traced back to him but still make the catspaw wait until he had left Winterfell, so nobody would have suspected him. I think Tyrion's chapter proves that Joffery sending the catspaw makes little sense.

But the problem I have with believing someone like Littlefinger did it is that why have people go through what they think happened only to have it be someone who nobody considered for reasons not yet known? Surely that makes those chapters there just to mislead the reader? I think we were given the information we needed just not told the right answer.

So, for the longest time I thought it was Cersi, mainly for the reason above but also it kinda irked me that the reason she was dismissed as a suspect was that she wouldn't be stupid enough to use a dagger that traced back to her, which I don't necessarily disagree with, but an estimation of Cersi's intelligence is down to opinion and wouldn't it be just as stupid of her to have a witness to her incest and not do anything about it? And you don't remove the person with the strongest motive from your suspect list because she can get hold of the murder weapon. But then it came to me, the dagger doesn't trace back to Cersi, it was Robert's dagger.

Cersi incest + Robert's belief on disabled children + Joffery wanting to impress his "father" = catspaw sent to kill Bran

Cersi incest + Robert's belief on disabled children + Joffery wanting to impress his "father" (- Cersi wouldn't be stupid enough to use a dagger that traces back to her - Joffery sending the catspaw doesn't make sense) = catspaw sent to kill Bran

Robert's belief on disabled children = catspaw sent to kill Bran

My theory is that King Robert sent the catspaw to kill Bran. He believes that Houses should kill their disabled children, he cares about House Stark and he knows Ned is never going to do it, or agree to it. As for the dagger tracing back to him? Well, he's the King, does he really have to care? It wasn't one of his favorite daggers, so it was probably just a "here have this" moment. And it explains why the catspaw was shocked to find Catelyn, a true assassin would kill anyone who got in his way but being sent by the King surely changes things. Surely this guy would want to impress? In the book we are told how Cersi and Joffery cannot be the culprits and hidden in there is a new piece of information that implicates King Robert and gives him his motive, and he also can get hold of the murder weapon.

So anyway, I am pretty content with this theory but would love to know what others think.

[ChuckPunch]

Nah it was Joff. Here's a Reddit post that goes into it in detail.

[Chrissie]

Thanks for the link but I still think it's a bit wierd that the reason Tyrion suspected Joffery was because he believed he wasn't a stranger to Valerian Steel and then for his own logic to work he had to change his mind. Why still suspect him?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

41 minutes ago, Chrissie said:

Thanks for the link but I still think it's a bit wierd that the reason Tyrion suspected Joffery was because he believed he wasn't a stranger to Valerian Steel and then for his own logic to work he had to change his mind. Why still suspect him?

Whether Joff was or wasn't "a stranger to Valyrian steel" is perfectly immaterial here. He didn't forge it, he just snitched the dagger from daddy's armory.

[Chrissie]

I don’t know. I guess it would be different for me if Tyrion went over the facts and then thought it was Joffrey. Instead it sounds like he thought it was Joffrey and then made the facts fit.

[Aedam Targaryen]

Something else to consider... is the only reason we know Joff is familiar w Valeryon steel because Joff tells us that he is? Joff would say anything that made him look elevated above/better than others, and being familiar w Valeryon steel would be one way to do that.

I am not saying that I know he is lying... I’m just saying it is very possible that he knows nothing. 

[Gramse]

When Catelyn discuss the dagger with Littlefinger, isnt Varys present at the same time (or was that only in the show)? Varys never tell Cat who the owner of the blade is but if Littlefinger tells the truth about how he won it from Tyrion it would be something Varys would know about. He choses to go with Littlefingers story. Why?

The dagger must have been stolen from its rightful owner (Littlefinger) but he would never be so stupid as to send a Catspaw with his own dagger so he makes up a lie, pointing at the Lannisters.

Varys on the other hand plays the game equally good as Littlefinger and has access to his "little birds" army, who are very good at stealing letters. 

Why not instruct them to steal Littlefingers dagger and then pay the Catspaw to kill a Stark child with it? 

Either:

Littlefinger gets the blame = Varys win, because he gets rid of a powerful opponent in the Game.

Or,

The Lannisters gets the blame = Varys win, since he has been working to destabilize the Crown the whole time and a war between the Starks and the Lannisters is what he wants.

 

So, Varys steal the blade (through his little birds) and tries to assassinate Bran. Only win scenarios for him and no real danger of being caught

 

[Chris Mormont]

It was Littlefinger.  It is obvious that he wanted to start trouble between the Starks and Lannisters and perhaps the dagger was meant to be left after the deed was done, thus still serving the purpose of framing Tyrion.

 

[Chrissie]

Also how believable is Joffrey’s motive? That really struck me as odd. Joffrey doesn’t seem like the kind of person who cares about other people’s opinions. I don’t think Joffrey and Robert ever interacted. Nobody else mentions that Joffrey looks up to Robert. It seems to come from nowhere.

[Gramse]

 

 

Littlefinger always make sure his plots never can be traced back to him. Why do it with your own (famous) dagger? Why not a normal dagger then? Causing the same effect if Bran should die, plus it cant be traced back to Littlefinger.

 

[Nittanian]

15 minutes ago, Gramse said:

The dagger must have been stolen from its rightful owner (Littlefinger) 

Robert did win the dagger during the tourney.

Quote

"Tyrion always backed me in the lists," Jaime said, "but that day Ser Loras unhorsed me. A mischance, I took the boy too lightly, but no matter. Whatever my brother wagered, he lost . . . but that dagger did change hands, I recall it now. Robert showed it to me that night at the feast. His Grace loved to salt my wounds, especially when drunk. And when was he not drunk?" (ACOK Catelyn VII)

 

16 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

It was Littlefinger.  It is obvious that he wanted to start trouble between the Starks and Lannisters and perhaps the dagger was meant to be left after the deed was done, thus still serving the purpose of framing Tyrion.

So Spake Martin:

Quote

[Did Littlefinger influence Joffrey to try and kill Bran?]

Well, Littlefinger did have a certain hidden inflouence [sic] over Joff... but he was not at Winterfell, and that needs to be remembered.

Some fans have conjectured that this hidden influence may be Petyr convincing Joffrey to execute Eddard, who was supposed to join the Night's Watch. 

[The hairy bear]

George has already confirmed in several interviews that Joffrey sent the Catspaw. Within the books, both Tyrion and Jaime reach the same conclusion independently. The case is closed.

And yes, it's not a particularly well-constructed mystery. The resolution is forced and requires leaps of faith from the reader. And the red herrings from the first book are even worse (Littlefinger absurdly claiming that Tyrion had won the dagger betting against brother was a stupid and transparent lie).

But it is what it is. No need to keep beating a dead horse.

[Chrissie]

I think King Robert did it.

[John Suburbs]

5 hours ago, Chrissie said:

snip

 

I think it's pretty clear that Joffrey sent the catspaw. What we don't know is why. Personally, I find it inconceivable that Joff would order a mercy killing on Bran since, well, the words "Joffrey" and "mercy" simply do not jive. It also doesn't make sense that Joff would do it to impress Robert, since there is no way Robert would ever know it was Joffrey unless Joff told him. Joff had plenty time to tell Robert, but he never did, and why would Joffrey expect Robert to be proud of such an act when he practically beat Joffrey to death over the death of a cat some years earlier?

So here is what I think happened:

Before leaving King's Landing, Littlefinger pulls Joffrey aside and tells him that Robert is going to ask Ned to be Hand. He also points out how this would be very bad for Jaime, Cersei and even Joffrey himself -- to have this northerner mucking around in the king's business. And this view would be reinforced if Joff happens to overhear J&C arguing about the same thing. LF would also point out that the only thing preventing Ned from taking the job is if House Stark was beset by a significant tragedy, as in the death of a child.

When Bran fell from the tower, it would seem to Joffrey that the problem has resolved itself. But then Ned decides to come south anyway, so Joff sends the Catspaw back to Winterfell in a last ditch effort to get Ned to change his mind.

This is how we can have the clumsy attempt on Bran's life -- that was all Joffrey's doing -- while at the same time ramping up the hostility between wolf and lion -- exactly what Littlefinger wants. If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey would have chosen one of the other children, probably Sansa.

In fact, we can look at Joffrey and Sansa's little ride along the Trident in a new light as well. Since news of Bran's murder has not flown south, Joff would assume his plan failed. So what now? Finagle an afternoon alone with Sansa -- and honestly, think about it: the crown prince and the daughter of a high lord allowed to ride off alone through strange country to do who knows what? Sorry, but no -- get her drunk and then either despoil her virtue or drown her in the river and claim it was a terrible accident.

 

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

I think it's pretty clear that Joffrey sent the catspaw. What we don't know is why. Personally, I find it inconceivable that Joff would order a mercy killing on Bran since, well, the words "Joffrey" and "mercy" simply do not jive. It also doesn't make sense that Joff would do it to impress Robert, since there is no way Robert would ever know it was Joffrey unless Joff told him. Joff had plenty time to tell Robert, but he never did, and why would Joffrey expect Robert to be proud of such an act when he practically beat Joffrey to death over the death of a cat some years earlier?

So here is what I think happened:

Before leaving King's Landing, Littlefinger pulls Joffrey aside and tells him that Robert is going to ask Ned to be Hand. He also points out how this would be very bad for Jaime, Cersei and even Joffrey himself -- to have this northerner mucking around in the king's business. And this view would be reinforced if Joff happens to overhear J&C arguing about the same thing. LF would also point out that the only thing preventing Ned from taking the job is if House Stark was beset by a significant tragedy, as in the death of a child.

When Bran fell from the tower, it would seem to Joffrey that the problem has resolved itself. But then Ned decides to come south anyway, so Joff sends the Catspaw back to Winterfell in a last ditch effort to get Ned to change his mind.

This is how we can have the clumsy attempt on Bran's life -- that was all Joffrey's doing -- while at the same time ramping up the hostility between wolf and lion -- exactly what Littlefinger wants. If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey would have chosen one of the other children, probably Sansa.

In fact, we can look at Joffrey and Sansa's little ride along the Trident in a new light as well. Since news of Bran's murder has not flown south, Joff would assume his plan failed. So what now? Finagle an afternoon alone with Sansa -- and honestly, think about it: the crown prince and the daughter of a high lord allowed to ride off alone through strange country to do who knows what? Sorry, but no -- get her drunk and then either despoil her virtue or drown her in the river and claim it was a terrible accident.

 

Sorry, but this whole post is ridiculous.

Littlefinger is doing everything he can to get Ned to head South and be hand.  All the better to get the story of the incest out, which will surely cause war, and cause Ned to get himself in trouble.  The letter he sent through Lysa is part of this.  He knows that Ned isn't going to let his second fathers' murder slide by.

Second, if Joffrey was disposed to harm a Stark, why didn't he do so sooner.  Bran was injured on the very last day before they were scheduled to leave for KL.  Plans were pretty much set in stone then.  I would expect him to have made him move long before then if he was going to do anything at all.

His adventure with Sansa is easily explained by the fact that he is a young boy trying to impress a girl; breaking rules, letting her do stuff like drinking wine that she isn't able to do, and the like.  Nothing more than that.  Besides, he got way more drunk than she did. 

While I, too, am unsatisfied with the solution given that it was Joffrey setting up a mercy killing, the other alternatives are even less likely.  The only other reasonable suspect is Cersei, and if she had done it, we would have heard about it from her POV.

[ravenous reader]

8 hours ago, Chrissie said:

for the longest time I thought it was Cersi, mainly for the reason above but also it kinda irked me that the reason she was dismissed as a suspect was that she wouldn't be stupid enough to use a dagger that traced back to her, which I don't necessarily disagree with, but an estimation of Cersi's intelligence is down to opinion and wouldn't it be just as stupid of her to have a witness to her incest and not do anything about it?

LOL -- Precisely!  It clashes with everything we know about her character and makes absolutely no sense.

We'll believe anything -- just so that we won't have to consider the possibility that our hero GRRM made a 'balls-up' of the whole 'mystery'.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

4 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

It was Littlefinger.  It is obvious that he wanted to start trouble between the Starks and Lannisters and perhaps the dagger was meant to be left after the deed was done, thus still serving the purpose of framing Tyrion.

 

Littlefinger wasn't in Winterfell, he isn't even a suspect.

6 hours ago, ChuckPunch said:

Nah it was Joff. Here's a Reddit post that goes into it in detail.

That seems to be the answer presented, even if it's not terribly satisfying.

3 hours ago, Chrissie said:

I think King Robert did it.

Hysterical, not because it's impossible (or because I can't see him doing it to Ned's son) but because it's genuinely a funny idea.

Who else was there and could have been responsible if we rule out Jaime and Cersei as POVs?

(this is in jest)

What about Mance Rayder? 

He was at Winterfell. He's a sneak thief. He had reason to kill a Stark.

Quote

Bran 1, Game of Thrones:

The man had been taken outside a small holdfast in the hills. Robb thought he was a wildling, his sword sworn to Mance Rayder, the King-beyond-the-Wall. It made Bran's skin prickle to think of it. He remembered the hearth tales Old Nan told them. The wildlings were cruel men, she said, slavers and slayers and thieves. They consorted with giants and ghouls, stole girl children in the dead of night, and drank blood from polished horns. And their women lay with the Others in the Long Night to sire terrible half-human children.

 

[Clegane'sPup]

5 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

George has already confirmed in several interviews that Joffrey sent the Catspaw. Within the books, both Tyrion and Jaime reach the same conclusion independently. The case is closed.

And yes, it's not a particularly well-constructed mystery. The resolution is forced and requires leaps of faith from the reader. And the red herrings from the first book are even worse (Littlefinger absurdly claiming that Tyrion had won the dagger betting against brother was a stupid and transparent lie).

But it is what it is. No need to keep beating a dead horse.

I agree with you.

 

[elder brother jonothor dar]

Why give anyone a dagger in the first place, not like it's a hard weapon to come by.

"Hi can you kill a Lord paramount son in his own castle, a castle you are unfamiliar with?"

"Sure I kill people all the time but I need a knife"

Not a likley scenario.  Finding the cat's paw is the hard part, giving him the knife is just a show of power/showing off.  Not Roberts style.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

12 hours ago, Chrissie said:

So, for the longest time I thought it was Cersi, mainly for the reason above but also it kinda irked me that the reason she was dismissed as a suspect was that she wouldn't be stupid enough to use a dagger that traced back to her, which I don't necessarily disagree with, but an estimation of Cersi's intelligence is down to opinion and wouldn't it be just as stupid of her to have a witness to her incest and not do anything about it? And you don't remove the person with the strongest motive from your suspect list because she can get hold of the murder weapon. But then it came to me, the dagger doesn't trace back to Cersi, it was Robert's dagger

Cersei is absolutely not stupid enough to hire a low rate assassin & give him a blade that can be traced back to her. Secondly, Cersei didn't have a witness to her incest & do nothing about it - she watched her brother shove the boy from a window & after that had no opportunity to harm him. She was quite aware Catelyn did not leave the boys side & would've told her hired killer this. 

 

12 hours ago, Chrissie said:

My theory is that King Robert sent the catspaw to kill Bran. He believes that Houses should kill their disabled children, he cares about House Stark and he knows Ned is never going to do it, or agree to it. As for the dagger tracing back to him? Well, he's the King, does he really have to care? It wasn't one of his favorite daggers, so it was probably just a "here have this" moment. And it explains why the catspaw was shocked to find Catelyn, a true assassin would kill anyone who got in his way but being sent by the King surely changes things. Surely this guy would want to impress? In the book we are told how Cersi and Joffery cannot be the culprits and hidden in there is a new piece of information that implicates King Robert and gives him his motive, and he also can get hold of the murder weapon.

Yes he has to care if the dagger can be traced back to him lol. He has come to WF to ask his long time friend to be the Hand of the King. What do you propose would happen if Ned found out Robert hired the catspaw to kill Bran? Ned would not remain Hand that's for certain. He quit over Robert hiring someone to kill Daenerys let alone his own son. Robert is a drunken oaf but he isn't cruel. He would never hire someone to kill one of Ned's children. 

Because he is King he would be able to hire a "true" assassin. This to me is the biggest evidence that it was Joffrey - Cersei, Robert, LF would all have hired someone who could actually get the job done & since Cersei & Robert were both well aware that Cat did not leave Bran's side & thus would have told the catspaw & LF was not in WF it appears it must be Joffrey. 

As for his motive who knows? I always took the fact that he heard Robert saying it would be a mercy to kill him meant Joffrey thought he was being the "man" in the situation rather than having a soft heart like a woman. Not that he wanted Robert to be proud of him. Besides that Joffrey is an evil little shit & doesn't need much more of a motive to harm someone.