A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I'm noticing a common theme in this debate. I present my argument based on the text. Then I get accused of not arguing from the text while my actual post regarding the text is not debated at all. Instead the immediate comeback is to run back to the e-mails. This is the third time it's happened.and it's very frustrating. Either it's tacit agreement and there is no counter argument and they agree that Tyrion's reasoning is rubbish and that Jaime and Cersei's conversation is suspect at best. Or they think it's too ridiculous. Meaning I haven't explained myself well enough. So please if you don't understand any part of my argument or disagree with it challenge me on it so I can have the opportunity to explain myself better.

I feel for you brother. Happens to me all the time. I provide copious text to back up a point, get accused of making it up because I haven't provided "proof" (as if there would be any reason to debate at all if the text provided clear, unambiguous proof) and then they expect me to disprove and endless stream of what-ifs and maybe-this-or-thats, none of which has any text or even a logical basis to support it.

For what it's worth, though, I don't think the fact that Joffrey reacts to the notion of Valyrian steel is as significant as his take on dragonbone, which he says is "too plain." As far as I know, this is the only example of dragonbone used in an artistic fashion, so why would Joffrey consider such a rare thing to be too plain unless he knew what it looked like as a dagger hilt?

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

My point was that since we already have an example of an experience of Joff and how sharp Valyrian Steel is (Ned's execution) he didn't give anything away...

As for why give an assassin the dagger? The assassin was clearly already well paid... 

I can't think of any reason for Joff to give the man a unique dagger. Really, why? Even if Joff had special instructions for how he wanted Bran carved up there is no logical reason to give the man a special knife.

 

The only response I can give to this is that Ned's execution happens after the catspaw. So when Joff says he has experience with VS, that would come after he gave up the knife, which could mean that at the time of the attempt Joff did not know how valuable it was. Indeed, the "plain" handle might have led him to believe the knife was not special at all.

 

[Seams]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Uh, you'll have to catch me up on your theory as to how Penny and Groat came to have real dragons eggs, why they would just give them to Littlefinger and why they would continue to perform for, well, pennies and groats, rather than retire to their splendid manse that came from the sale of virtually priceless eggs.

I can't tell if you're just patronizing me, or if you really want to hear the theory. In a nutshell, this is it:

Penny and Groat were given dragon eggs by the Sealord of Braavos, who loved their act. (ADwD, Tyrion VIII: "We performed for the Sealord of Braavos once, and he laughed so hard that afterward he gave each of us a . . . a grand gift.") Groat either sold those eggs to Littlefinger's agents or he was killed by Littlefingers agents (Kettleblacks?) under the cover of Cersei's bounty on dwarf heads. The eggs were taken to be hatched and raised at the isolated but sheep-inhabited Baelish ancestral lands.

Penny says that Groat handled all of the arrangements for their act, so she may have never seen the money paid for the eggs or, as I say, Groat may have been murdered and the eggs taken from him.

[Banner Without Brothers]

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I feel for you brother. Happens to me all the time. I provide copious text to back up a point, get accused of making it up because I haven't provided "proof" (as if there would be any reason to debate at all if the text provided clear, unambiguous proof) and then they expect me to disprove and endless stream of what-ifs and maybe-this-or-thats, none of which has any text or even a logical basis to support it.

For what it's worth, though, I don't think the fact that Joffrey reacts to the notion of Valyrian steel is as significant as his take on dragonbone, which he says is "too plain." As far as I know, this is the only example of dragonbone used in an artistic fashion, so why would Joffrey consider such a rare thing to be too plain unless he knew what it looked like as a dagger hilt?

Thanks, some of the longer posts do take a long time to make like 1/2 an hour or even an hour or more. Sometimes I use a search of ice and fire but other times I'm going to the books and rereading chapters. That's nothing compared to what some people do though. I see some people able to put so effort into their theories that they come out with essays for. I'd never have the patience for that. I think that's one of the most frustrating parts. But I'm grateful for the opportunity to expand and talk through these ideas more

Regarding the dragonbone I thought that would be the central piece of evidence for Littlefinger + Joffrey. As the exact same description is used by LF when discussing the dagger with Tyrion ACoK Tyrion 4 

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"That's a handsome knife as well."

"Is it?" There was mischief in Littlefinger's eyes. He drew the knife and glanced at it casually, as if he had never seen it before. "Valyrian steel, and a dragonbone hilt. A trifle plain, though. It's yours, if you would like it."

"Mine?" Tyrion gave him a long look. "No. I think not. Never mine." He knows, the insolent wretch. He knows and he knows that I know, and he thinks that I cannot touch him.

It is weird that only these two characters see the dagger as plain.Tyrion describes dragonbone as being like black diamond and Daenerys describes her dragonbone bow as "shiny, black, exquisite". But it could just be a matter of opinion. The similarity in their description could be seen as showing exactly that. That more than one person believes that dragonbone is plain and it's not unusual for Joffrey to hold that opinion.

My problem with LF+Joff would be that LF has zero need of Joffrey's involvement. He has an agent at Winterfell, who delivered the Myrish lens with the letter and who informed him of Cat's trip to King's Landing. The problem is that he needs to find out about Bran's fall then communicate with the agent in Winterfell. So a raven round trip made in three weeks. Quite possible imo. The biggest problem with Lf is that he simply doesn't need to. He's already got a plan to sew mistrust between the Starks and Lannisters. This would be the proverbial cherry on the top. But it just seems such an unnecessary risk. Something a bit out of character for LF. Mance on the other hand has no plan to beat the seven kingdoms or even the North, he's stopped by the wall and a couple thousand cavalry. That's why I would rank Mance higher than LF in the list of suspects. His motive far exceeds everyone else's.

[Banner Without Brothers]

16 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Yeah definitely not a disagreement or an agreement. He is uninterested in Bran at all the wolf howling is what he is complaining about. Given the quote I don't think "send a dog to kill a dog" is far from "send a dog to kill a wolf" given Joff is talking about a wolf. He says dog the first time but then says WF is infested with wolves so they won't miss one. I'll agree it's still odd for Tyrion to misquote Joff later though. 

I think it's a big leap to get from killing Summer to killing Bran. Especially as it was a cat sent to kill Bran not a wolf or a dog. I'm not really into putting great emphasis on finding hidden meanings and symbolism in certain words but I think these words are very specific. I think it's a reasonable mistake for Tyrion to make the conversation happened a long time ago. But to base his case on this is completely wrong as it never happened. As a reader I think it's unreasonable for us to make a connection from dog>wolf>cat. It's a completely changed meaning completely changed and contradicting symbolism.

 

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But what would be her motive to lie about Tyrion asking her about the dagger? It seems an odd thing to lie about when she could have just as easily left it out. Either way it doesn't mean she wasn't lying about what Robert said. That, she has a very clear motive for. 

Well one clear motive was if she were guilty of the crime herself or at the very least she doesn't want to be accused of it. It doesn't necessarily mean that she is lying about everything. Although I do see it as the literary device of a character starting a conversation with a lie as meaning we can't trust any of what they're saying. Like they're in lying mode. I think one way to read that part is that she lies, then goes to close the window perhaps turning her back to hide her face while she's thinking turns back and starts leading Jaime first to Robert which he quickly rejects then to the children until he lands on Joffrey who's dead so what does it matter. Then she changes the subject.

edit: I reread this and didn't think I'd answered the question properly. I think in the end it's all just weird and that we're not going to find an answer as to whether this was intentional or not until someone straight up asks him whether this conversation ever happened. It is a strange thing to lie about but it's not like Tyrion is likely to be able to ever refute it so it's a safe lie from her perspective.

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This I love! It would be fantastic. 

I think I first heard this theory on here a few years ago so I can't take credit for it but when I read it it made sense and yeah it would be cool.

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"You weren't s'posed to be here," he muttered sourly. "No one was s'posed to be here."

I think it really centres on this and that he then repeats it emphasising it's importance. Especially if it was Bran warging some guy. Because to Bran Cat is not supposed to be there. As when he wakes up she's gone.

The Catspaw is a whole other part of this I haven't discussed. He is one dedicated catspaw. Hides in the stables for a week. He's already been paid so no huge reason to go through with it. His plan goes wrong why not just run when he sees Cat. Instead he fights her like killing Bran is not just a mercy, not just a job, it's like he has to go through with it for some unknown reason. For me this also points away from Joff. It's not like Joff has any real power to go hunt this guy. His power comes from his father so he can't exactly go and complain about the catspaw to him. 

Just one more thing back to some symbolism. Silver is what Mance has in winterfell. I also associate it with Littlefinger, his silver broach. Baratheons and Lannisters are always associated with gold. Like I said I don't put too much stock in symbolism arguments but it's another strange thing that feels out of place.

[Banner Without Brothers]

@Frey family reunion

That was an amazing post and I agree with you completely. I especially enjoyed the parallels to greek mythology. I'd made a similar argument earlier for Mance's motives but far less eloquently. 

@Ckram

Thanks for that I'd actually forgotten about that conversation in Tyrion 1. It is very interesting that Cersei later blames Robert for the very thing she said.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I think it's a big leap to get from killing Summer to killing Bran. Especially as it was a cat sent to kill Bran not a wolf or a dog. I'm not really into putting great emphasis on finding hidden meanings and symbolism in certain words but I think these words are very specific. I think it's a reasonable mistake for Tyrion to make the conversation happened a long time ago. But to base his case on this is completely wrong as it never happened. As a reader I think it's unreasonable for us to make a connection from dog>wolf>cat. It's a completely changed meaning completely changed and contradicting symbolism.

 

I agree it's a big leap from dog-wolf-cat & don't think it's a very good thing for Tyrion to base his case on. I only meant it was reasonable for Tyrion to misquote "wolf" instead of dog given the context. As you said there wasn't a dog sent to kill a dog or a dog sent to kill a wolf. There was a cat sent to kill a wolf. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Well one clear motive was if she were guilty of the crime herself or at the very least she doesn't want to be accused of it. It doesn't necessarily mean that she is lying about everything. Although I do see it as the literary device of a character starting a conversation with a lie as meaning we can't trust any of what they're saying. Like they're in lying mode. I think one way to read that part is that she lies, then goes to close the window perhaps turning her back to hide her face while she's thinking turns back and starts leading Jaime first to Robert which he quickly rejects then to the children until he lands on Joffrey who's dead so what does it matter. Then she changes the subject.

edit: I reread this and didn't think I'd answered the question properly. I think in the end it's all just weird and that we're not going to find an answer as to whether this was intentional or not until someone straight up asks him whether this conversation ever happened. It is a strange thing to lie about but it's not like Tyrion is likely to be able to ever refute it so it's a safe lie from her perspective.

I agree it can been seen as a literary device to indicate the rest of what she says is lies. But yeah it is an odd thing to lie about nonetheless. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I think it really centres on this and that he then repeats it emphasising it's importance. Especially if it was Bran warging some guy. Because to Bran Cat is not supposed to be there. As when he wakes up she's gone.

Playing the Devils advocate here would Bran kill Cat though? I suppose we don't know in what state he will return from the cave & if he knows she is soon to die anyway maybe he would. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

The Catspaw is a whole other part of this I haven't discussed. He is one dedicated catspaw. Hides in the stables for a week. He's already been paid so no huge reason to go through with it. His plan goes wrong why not just run when he sees Cat. Instead he fights her like killing Bran is not just a mercy, not just a job, it's like he has to go through with it for some unknown reason. For me this also points away from Joff. It's not like Joff has any real power to go hunt this guy. His power comes from his father so he can't exactly go and complain about the catspaw to him. 

This has always been odd to me. The only possible explanation I have is that he is simple minded. He does as he is told & this is what he was told. Similar to Small Paul participating in the mutiny. It's not a great explanation I know but the only one I have. 

 

3 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Just one more thing back to some symbolism. Silver is what Mance has in winterfell. I also associate it with Littlefinger, his silver broach. Baratheons and Lannisters are always associated with gold. Like I said I don't put too much stock in symbolism arguments but it's another strange thing that feels out of place.

I do think it's interesting that Mance says he was in WF with silver & then the catspaw has a bag of silver. My biggest issue with Mance being the one to hire the catspaw is Mance seems smart enough to plan something better, something that would actually work. Maybe he never intended it to work? I mean if we go with 'Mance hired the catspaw' he reached his desired ends even though the murder attempt failed so it could be it didn't matter one way or the other if the catspaw actually succeeded as long as the attempt was made. 

Thinking about it I would actually go a step further & say Mance wouldn't have wanted it to succeed would he? If it works the catspaw isn't caught & the dagger isn't found. Unless of course the catspaw was given instructions to leave the VS dagger at the scene of the crime. 

I don't put much stock in symbolism either & I know the dragon bone seems to connect LF & Joff but I just don't see LF having anything to do with it. There are just so many what ifs & unknowns for LF to be orchestrating it while in KL. 

I do think the dragon bone indicates it may have been Joffrey though. It's a small thing but it explains why Joff picked that particular dagger if he feels dragon bone is 'plain' 

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

I feel that when this issue is discussed we forget some of the reasons why this dagger has to be so special.

George had to choose a unique dagger so it would be easily remembered and recognizable to the characters. The dagger is the only clue left behind for the characters to try to connect the dots. An ordinary dagger would not have been remembered by mere description when Cat confronts Jaime. LF would have had to be more creative in pointing Cat towards Tyrion if it were an ordinary dagger. Tyrion's description of the dagger to Joff would have no result when Tyrion comes to his conclusion in SoS. A unique dagger works much better to move the plot forward.

In story perspective: is also important to remember that the perpetrator most likely did not expect his catspaw to be caught. He probably thought this would be the last time anyone ever saw this dagger. He probably never worried about anything being traced back to him or anyone else. After all, he told the assassin that 'no one was s'posed to be there'. 

[Banner Without Brothers]

6 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Playing the Devils advocate here would Bran kill Cat though? I suppose we don't know in what state he will return from the cave & if he knows she is soon to die anyway maybe he would. 

OK get your tinfoil hat ready and strap yourself in. It goes something like this; Bran has been absorbed by the CotF and the weirwoods. This operates as a sort of hive minded consciousness as with Martin's other work. The CotF are using Bran's body and his abilities to get rid of mankind or do some bad stuff. Bran's consciousness is still just about functioning but he's not in control of his body. So he goes back to the beginning to stop all of this from happening. He figures if he trades one life, his own, for all the deaths in the future it's worth it, as he'll be fully absorbed soon anyway. Note the "he's dead already" part. When he gets there he finds his mother but determined to stop this future he goes ahead with his plan and well you know the rest. It's just a bit of fun and would be a cool ending. Eerily similar to the plot of the Terminator films I'm just realizing 

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I do think it's interesting that Mance says he was in WF with silver & then the catspaw has a bag of silver. My biggest issue with Mance being the one to hire the catspaw is Mance seems smart enough to plan something better, something that would actually work. Maybe he never intended it to work? I mean if we go with 'Mance hired the catspaw' he reached his desired ends even though the murder attempt failed so it could be it didn't matter one way or the other if the catspaw actually succeeded as long as the attempt was made. 

Thinking about it I would actually go a step further & say Mance wouldn't have wanted it to succeed would he? If it works the catspaw isn't caught & the dagger isn't found. Unless of course the catspaw was given instructions to leave the VS dagger at the scene of the crime. 

My own opinion on this is that Mance went there with the intention of causing trouble and opportunistically took advantage of the Bran situation. Mance's explanation of why he goes to Winterfell is pretty lame. He says he goes there just to get a look at the southron king. Like he's got nothing better to do, like I don't know look for the horn of Joramun or organize and train his army or plan the invasion. Anything, but instead he decides to poetically go and look Robert in the face to get the measure of him. This is a journey that involves scaling the wall walking hundreds of miles across the gift and the new gift where he buys a horse on Umber land and rides down the king's road at great speed to catch up with the royal party. At any point he could be captured or killed all for a look at Robert. It's a nice story and makes him look all kinds of brave but objectively it's probably one of the dumbest things a leader could do. This is also a story he's telling Jon it's not like he can say I went there to try to start a war between your family and the crown.

Regarding the dagger I think it would be weird for the catspaw to take the dagger away no matter who he's working for. You don't want to be carrying around a blood soaked murder weapon while you're making your escape. You especially don't want to be a smelly lowborn carrying a VS dagger. That's all the proof any guard who stopped him would need. If the catspaw had any hope of escaping alive he would want to leave the dagger. The same way any mob hit in a film you've seen goes, they always drop the gun when the deed is done. Especially if there's no dna testing, no forensics. It's the only proof you did anything other than being a smelly peasant who no one knows.

I think the plan from Mance's PoV is pretty solid. Burn the library, you expect everyone to be trying to put out the fire and go kill the boy. It's only a bad plan if you don't know Cat very well.

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This has always been odd to me. The only possible explanation I have is that he is simple minded. He does as he is told & this is what he was told. Similar to Small Paul participating in the mutiny. It's not a great explanation I know but the only one I have. 

Yeah it could be. But he's pretty stealthy to avoid detection for a week. Then to move from one part of the castle to another. We don't know if it was his plan to burn the library or his employer. It doesn't strike me as a simple minded thing he's doing it takes some skill. Although he is described as "stupidly repeating it's a mercy" so the suggestion he's stupid is there. It makes more sense if he''s doing it for a reason other than just payment, like being a wildling. It's similar in a way to how the spearwives behave when rescuing fArya and Theon. Littlefinger also commands a lot of loyalty. 

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I don't put much stock in symbolism either & I know the dragon bone seems to connect LF & Joff but I just don't see LF having anything to do with it. There are just so many what ifs & unknowns for LF to be orchestrating it while in KL. 

I do think the dragon bone indicates it may have been Joffrey though. It's a small thing but it explains why Joff picked that particular dagger if he feels dragon bone is 'plain' 

 

I agree with you on LF. I just don't see the need for it. There's also a real lack of evidence for him. It's totally possible that he could do it. Like it's possible that Dario could be Euron. Technically a great many things are possible but there's not a lot of hard evidence like the silver and Mance.

Do you think it can be seen both ways? As in it's a shared opinion meaning it's not unusual for the dagger to be seen as plain. Some people think it's striking some people think it's plain. 

So with all the holes in the Joffrey theory where are you now on  believing he did it? Has the needle moved at all?

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

20 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

get your tinfoil hat ready and strap yourself in. It goes something like this; Bran has been absorbed by the CotF and the weirwoods. This operates as a sort of hive minded consciousness as with Martin's other work. The CotF are using Bran's body and his abilities to get rid of mankind or do some bad stuff. Bran's consciousness is still just about functioning but he's not in control of his body. So he goes back to the beginning to stop all of this from happening. He figures if he trades one life, his own, for all the deaths in the future it's worth it, as he'll be fully absorbed soon anyway. Note the "he's dead already" part. When he gets there he finds his mother but determined to stop this future he goes ahead with his plan and well you know the rest. It's just a bit of fun and would be a cool ending. Eerily similar to the plot of the Terminator films I'm just realizing 

I love this stuff & really do hope George takes part of the story somewhat in this direction. 

 

20 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

My own opinion on this is that Mance went there with the intention of causing trouble and opportunistically took advantage of the Bran situation. Mance's explanation of why he goes to Winterfell is pretty lame. He says he goes there just to get a look at the southron king. Like he's got nothing better to do, like I don't know look for the horn of Joramun or organize and train his army or plan the invasion. Anything, but instead he decides to poetically go and look Robert in the face to get the measure of him. This is a journey that involves scaling the wall walking hundreds of miles across the gift and the new gift where he buys a horse on Umber land and rides down the king's road at great speed to catch up with the royal party. At any point he could be captured or killed all for a look at Robert. It's a nice story and makes him look all kinds of brave but objectively it's probably one of the dumbest things a leader could do. This is also a story he's telling Jon it's not like he can say I went there to try to start a war between your family and the crown.

I agree it's an odd explanation for why he went to WF & as he is talking to Jon, a Stark bastard & is not 100% sure about where Jon's loyalties lie regarding the NW & wildlings he wouldn't tell him the truth. It doesn't make much sense for him to go there just to look at Robert either. 

 

20 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Yeah it could be. But he's pretty stealthy to avoid detection for a week. Then to move from one part of the castle to another. We don't know if it was his plan to burn the library or his employer. It doesn't strike me as a simple minded thing he's doing it takes some skill. Although he is described as "stupidly repeating it's a mercy" so the suggestion he's stupid is there. It makes more sense if he''s doing it for a reason other than just payment, like being a wildling. It's similar in a way to how the spearwives behave when rescuing fArya and Theon. Littlefinger also commands a lot of loyalty

I can see this. My reasoning behind him being simple minded was that whoever sent the catspaw convinced this man he is doing this child a mercy & convinced him to take all the risk in killing him which to my mostly normal mind woukd take alot of convincing. My thought process was the catspaw must'be been fairly simple minded to be talked into it. But really he wouldn't have to be I suppose. The wildlings believe such things to be a mercy & we have several other characters throughout the story that talk of giving the he mercy of death. 

 

25 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

you think it can be seen both ways? As in it's a shared opinion meaning it's not unusual for the dagger to be seen as plain. Some people think it's striking some people think it's plain. 

Yeah it can definitely be seen both ways. It could speak to nothing more than Joffrey's ignorance & arrogance which was already being shown in that scene by Joff cutting up the book Tyrion gave him. 

 

26 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

So with all the holes in the Joffrey theory where are you now on  believing he did it? Has the needle moved at all?

You know I have to admit it has. I wasn't 100% on board with the Joffrey theory but I'm even less so now. I came into this thread thinking 'Mance?! Of course he didn't send the catspaw!' TBH I completely forgot about Mance even being at WF.  But it seems as if he not only has a motive & means but the best motive & means along with some textual evidence. I won't be surprised at all if it's Mance. 

[ravenous reader]

On 11/17/2017 at 5:43 PM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Sure, that could definitely be the case. But it would be a really stupid plan, even for Joffrey. And we have to accept that he was stupid enough to send the assassin with the dagger but smart enough to tell him to wait until a week after they left to cover his tracks. It is possible, but it seems odd. More importantly, if Joff really did send the assassin, it was a super huge coincidence that he happened to pick LF's dagger and another coincidence that the assassin failed so the dagger could be found at all and another coincidence that Lysa's letter about Jon Arryn caused Cat to blame the Lannisters and head to KL and have the conversation with LF, ultimately leading to Cat kidnapping Tyrion and the Wot5K. It is a whole series of coincidences that played directly into BR's plan to bring Bran north, and so I think it is more likely that BR himself was involved in setting up the whole thing in the first place.

I agree that someone is implicated in 'setting up the whole thing in the first place,' but it isn't Bloodraven; it's the author himself whose presence you're sensing in the text...

As to the heavyhanded 'whole series of [unlikely, contradictory] coincidences' we 'have to accept' in which we can discern the trace of the author as he goes about constructing his fiction-- it's called 'less-than-good' writing!

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

14 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

I agree that someone is implicated in 'setting up the whole thing in the first place,' but it isn't Bloodraven; it's the author himself whose presence you're sensing in the text...

As to the heavyhanded 'whole series of [unlikely, contradictory] coincidences' we 'have to accept' in which we can discern the trace of the author as he goes about constructing his fiction-- it's called 'less-than-good' writing!

LOL yes, if this turns out to be the case, I agree with your characterization. And if it was pretty much any other author I would assume this is what is going on. But because it is GRRM, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming it is an intricate conspiracy rather than contrived writing for the sake of moving the plot forward. I could definitely be wrong. 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎11‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 7:33 PM, Seams said:

I can't tell if you're just patronizing me, or if you really want to hear the theory. In a nutshell, this is it:

Penny and Groat were given dragon eggs by the Sealord of Braavos, who loved their act. (ADwD, Tyrion VIII: "We performed for the Sealord of Braavos once, and he laughed so hard that afterward he gave each of us a . . . a grand gift.") Groat either sold those eggs to Littlefinger's agents or he was killed by Littlefingers agents (Kettleblacks?) under the cover of Cersei's bounty on dwarf heads. The eggs were taken to be hatched and raised at the isolated but sheep-inhabited Baelish ancestral lands.

Penny says that Groat handled all of the arrangements for their act, so she may have never seen the money paid for the eggs or, as I say, Groat may have been murdered and the eggs taken from him.

OK, well, at least that's something to go on. And yes, I apologize for my earlier snarkiness, but this whole idea still falls flat. The Sealord of Braavos was so impressed by a pair of jousting dwarfs that he gave them literally two of the most priceless objects on earth? and then Groat didn't bother selling them or depositing them in the IB as collateral for money to buy a manse or some other profit-generating venture, he's still content to perform for scraps afterward. And only Littlefinger is aware of these incredibly priceless objects being carted around by a couple of dwarfs, and he has all the time in the world to hatch a swindle or commit a murder from an ocean away?

I'm sure whatever gift the SL gave P&G was grand to her mind, but I cannot fathom it was as grand as a pair of dragon eggs.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎11‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 3:54 AM, Banner Without Brothers said:

My problem with LF+Joff would be that LF has zero need of Joffrey's involvement. He has an agent at Winterfell, who delivered the Myrish lens with the letter and who informed him of Cat's trip to King's Landing. The problem is that he needs to find out about Bran's fall then communicate with the agent in Winterfell. So a raven round trip made in three weeks. Quite possible imo. The biggest problem with Lf is that he simply doesn't need to. He's already got a plan to sew mistrust between the Starks and Lannisters. This would be the proverbial cherry on the top. But it just seems such an unnecessary risk. Something a bit out of character for LF. Mance on the other hand has no plan to beat the seven kingdoms or even the North, he's stopped by the wall and a couple thousand cavalry. That's why I would rank Mance higher than LF in the list of suspects. His motive far exceeds everyone else's.

Well, I don't know if you need an "agent" to deliver an unmarked box to someone, just instructions to leave it on Luwin's desk with some excuse about it being a surprise. And Littlefinger would have been aware of Catelyn's arrival in KL the moment a boatload of oarsmen hit the docks with stories of the fancy lady who handed them a silver stag as they disembarked -- and that's assuming that captain Moreo, who knows exactly who Cat is and where she is staying, is not on LF's payroll as well. Note that Rodrik leaves her in the room where she falls asleep for who knows how long before LF's men arrive. And since Rod is out to find Santagar and ask him if he knows about the knife, we have a conversation that could very well have been overheard by a little bird after they've arrived at KL.

And as I've said above, Littlefinger doesn't need to know anything about Bran's fall or anything else that has happened in Winterfell in order to be the instigator here. Before leaving KL, he takes Joffrey aside and tells him how bad it would be -- for Robert, his mother, house Lannister and even Joffrey himself -- if Ned were to become Hand. He also says that the only thing preventing this would be a major tragedy in House Stark, such as the death of one of the children. Joffrey took it from there: the knife, the catspaw, the clumsy way it was done... And no, before you respond, this is not LF attempting to scotch Ned becoming Hand, it is only to get Joffrey to act. If it hadn't been Bran, he would have chosen one of the other children. In fact, with Bran's fall, to Joffrey it would have looked like the problem has resolved itself, which is why the attempt did not come until after the party had left Winterfell.

The letter plan is far too sketchy for LF to rely upon. In the first place, it was only by the sheerest stroke of luck (yet another lucky break for Littlefinger) that it was found at all. I mean, who gets a gift with no note attached and immediately assumes it is a secret sign to go poking around the box, not just a simple case of a lost message? And what makes LF think Lysa's message will have any affect at all? She is a grieving widow and she's not exactly known to be the most rational of thinkers, and here she is tossing out accusations of murder with no proof, no evidence, nothing. But with the letter and then a suspicious death of a Stark, now you have a one-two punch that will almost certainly heighten the distrust between the two houses, because now it is personal for House Stark.

So at this point, I prefer the Joffrey-Littlefinger connection while keeping Mance as a dark horse candidate. And realizing, of course, that LF was the dark horse in the Arryn murder right up until that whole thing was revealed.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, I don't know if you need an "agent" to deliver an unmarked box to someone, just instructions to leave it on Luwin's desk with some excuse about it being a surprise

He would need someone to give the instructions to. Someone he either trusted to be stealthy & to not tell where the box came from if he was caught. I would call that an agent. 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And as I've said above, Littlefinger doesn't need to know anything about Bran's fall or anything else that has happened in Winterfell in order to be the instigator here. Before leaving KL, he takes Joffrey aside and tells him how bad it would be -- for Robert, his mother, house Lannister and even Joffrey himself -- if Ned were to become Hand. He also says that the only thing preventing this would be a major tragedy in House Stark, such as the death of one of the children. Joffrey took it from there: the knife, the catspaw, the clumsy way it was done... And no, before you respond, this is not LF attempting to scotch Ned becoming Hand, it is only to get Joffrey to act. If it hadn't been Bran, he would have chosen one of the other children. In fact, with Bran's fall, to Joffrey it would have looked like the problem has resolved itself, which is why the attempt did not come until after the party had left Winterfell.

My biggest issue with this is that their really isn't any evidence that any of that happened. Also it leaves quite a bit to chance. LF is, firstly trusting Joff to "catch his drift" - which I think he probably would but there's a chance he wouldn't. There's also the fact that Joffrey has no reason to believe LF when he says Ned becoming hand would be bad for House Lannister, as I hardly believe LF would have told Joff - look your uncle Jaime is actually your dad & if Ned come to KL he is going to figure it out. He would have to come up with some plausible reason Ned is a threat to House Lannister (which I'm sure he is capable of) but also a threat that Joffrey would believe & give a shit about. Then LF has to hope an opputunity presents itself to Joff & that Joff takes it. It leaves quite a bit to chance. 

How do you propose Joffrey orchestrated the attempt on Bran's life after he left WF? I would think the more likely scenario would be that once Joffrey heard the Maester thought Bran would live he then put his plan into action, while he was still at WF. Instructing the catspaw to wait until the party left WF. At any rate we know the catspaw had been hiding out in the stables for some time. 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The letter plan is far too sketchy for LF to rely upon. In the first place, it was only by the sheerest stroke of luck (yet another lucky break for Littlefinger) that it was found at all. I mean, who gets a gift with no note attached and immediately assumes it is a secret sign to go poking around the box, not just a simple case of a lost message? And what makes LF think Lysa's message will have any affect at all? She is a grieving widow and she's not exactly known to be the most rational of thinkers, and here she is tossing out accusations of murder with no proof, no evidence, nothing. But with the letter and then a suspicious death of a Stark, now you have a one-two punch that will almost certainly heighten the distrust between the two houses, because now it is personal for House Stark.

I disagree. I think the 'LF influenced Joff' is far more sketchy & could only be carried out with the "sheerest stroke of luck" I don't think it's farfetched to think Luwin would completely examine a mystery box left by a mystery person. Lysa believes Cat will believe her because Cat will & does believe her. When they last saw each other Lysa was not the lunatic she became. I agree Bran's fall & subsequent attempt on Bran's life heightened the distrust between the two houses but we know the fall itself was a spontaneous decision, there really isn't any reason to think the murder attempt wasn't just another, unconnected, piece on the pile. 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎11‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 6:25 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

He would need someone to give the instructions to. Someone he either trusted to be stealthy & to not tell where the box came from if he was caught. I would call that an agent. 

Not necessarily. He could just tell someone to place the box in Luwin's chambers, but don't let anyone see you because I want it to be a surprise. The fewer people who know about your plots, the better.

On ‎11‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 6:25 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

My biggest issue with this is that their really isn't any evidence that any of that happened. Also it leaves quite a bit to chance. LF is, firstly trusting Joff to "catch his drift" - which I think he probably would but there's a chance he wouldn't. There's also the fact that Joffrey has no reason to believe LF when he says Ned becoming hand would be bad for House Lannister, as I hardly believe LF would have told Joff - look your uncle Jaime is actually your dad & if Ned come to KL he is going to figure it out. He would have to come up with some plausible reason Ned is a threat to House Lannister (which I'm sure he is capable of) but also a threat that Joffrey would believe & give a shit about. Then LF has to hope an opputunity presents itself to Joff & that Joff takes it. It leaves quite a bit to chance. 

How do you propose Joffrey orchestrated the attempt on Bran's life after he left WF? I would think the more likely scenario would be that once Joffrey heard the Maester thought Bran would live he then put his plan into action, while he was still at WF. Instructing the catspaw to wait until the party left WF. At any rate we know the catspaw had been hiding out in the stables for some time. 

Of course there's no evidence for it. If there was there would be no point in discussing it. There's no evidence that Joffrey or Mance or anyone else sent the catspaw other than the cryptic references in the text. On that score, we do have Littlefinger explaining how he manipulated Joffrey over the dwarf joust, and he could very well have done the same thing with Ned's execution. He's one of the few people who knows how to get Joffrey to do things he wouldn't do otherwise -- not by simply telling him that this is what he must do, but by subtly working his ego and his loathing for those he considers inferior. The only other person who seems to have figured this out is Margaery.

Sure, there's a chance that Joffrey won't act (he almost didn't), but there's even less of a chance that Luwin will find the message in the box. I mean, who gets an anonymous gift and immediately assumes this is some sort of highborn subterfuge telling him to examine the packaging? The most likely thing to expect is that Luwin would assume it is a courtesy gift from Pycelle or maybe some old friend who is now serving at a seat along the kingsroad.

LF does not have to tell Joffrey any secrets about his parentage. He just has to make up some lie as to why Ned's presence would be detrimental to Robert's reign and perhaps even his own chances of becoming king one day. And if Joffrey were to overhear Cersei fretting over Ned as well...

The attempt was orchestrated exactly as you said: wait until we're gone before striking.

On ‎11‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 6:25 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I disagree. I think the 'LF influenced Joff' is far more sketchy & could only be carried out with the "sheerest stroke of luck" I don't think it's farfetched to think Luwin would completely examine a mystery box left by a mystery person. Lysa believes Cat will believe her because Cat will & does believe her. When they last saw each other Lysa was not the lunatic she became. I agree Bran's fall & subsequent attempt on Bran's life heightened the distrust between the two houses but we know the fall itself was a spontaneous decision, there really isn't any reason to think the murder attempt wasn't just another, unconnected, piece on the pile. 

Why would he do that? If you got a gift with no note attached, would you immediately assume it was some sort of plot? Or would you just think the note got lost during the 700-league journey from KL and Winterfell? As far as we can tell, Winterfell under the Starks is not a den of intrigue with servant spies eavesdropping on everyone and political struggles between various factions in the castle. Everybody appears to be on the up and up, so there is absolutely no reason for Luwin to jump to such an unlikely conclusion. I have always been suspicious of this story he told (and still am, a little), but he's dead now so there is no use dwelling on it.

What Lysa believes is irrelevant. She is not the plotter here, Littlefinger is. He hasn't seen Cat in 15 years, and both of them know Lysa has always been a little flighty at best. So he has no way to know whether Cat will believe the accusation, or more importantly, whether Ned will believe it. But he doesn't need either one of them to believe it. It's all about creating doubt at this point, which would then blossom into full-blown suspicion should something suddenly happen to one of their children the moment three Lannisters arrive.

Sorry, but I refuse to believe that all of these random, unconnected pieces on the pile always work out exactly in Littlefinger's favor. I've already given him a pass on the Luwin note and Cat just happening to run into Tyrion on the King's Road, but at some point all of these happy coincidences become too much to believe.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Not necessarily. He could just tell someone to place the box in Luwin's chambers, but don't let anyone see you because I want it to be a surprise. The fewer people who know about your plots, the better.

Well telling someone to put the box in Luwin's chambers is giving him instructions. Don't let anyone see you = be stealthy. LF would had to have told the person not to say where the box came from if caught, or to not place the box at all if caught if that was still an option. I didn't mean to imply LF would have let him in on the whole plot but he definitely would have done everything I said in the passage quoted. 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Why would he do that? If you got a gift with no note attached, would you immediately assume it was some sort of plot? Or would you just think the note got lost during the 700-league journey from KL and Winterfell? As far as we can tell, Winterfell under the Starks is not a den of intrigue with servant spies eavesdropping on everyone and political struggles between various factions in the castle. Everybody appears to be on the up and up, so there is absolutely no reason for Luwin to jump to such an unlikely conclusion. I have always been suspicious of this story he told (and still am, a little), but he's dead now so there is no use dwelling on it.

Because he just found an unmarked box, addressed to no one, after the King & all his people have arrived. A King that is married to & brought with him a Queen that Ned doesn't trust. Along with the Queen's brother. Maybe we just have to agree to disagree here but I have a hard time seeing why Luwin wouldn't examine the box a little in an effort to see who may have left it, where it came from, etc. 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

What Lysa believes is irrelevant. She is not the plotter here, Littlefinger is. He hasn't seen Cat in 15 years, and both of them know Lysa has always been a little flighty at best. So he has no way to know whether Cat will believe the accusation, or more importantly, whether Ned will believe it. But he doesn't need either one of them to believe it. It's all about creating doubt at this point, which would then blossom into full-blown suspicion should something suddenly happen to one of their children the moment three Lannisters arrive.

But what Lysa believes is not irrelevant. LF would not plant the message if he didn't think Cat would at least read it with an open mind. You are correct that he doesn't need her to believe it, he only needs to create doubt. You are the one that said "What makes LF believe the note will have any affect at all" My answer was because Lysa knew Cat would believe it. At least her & LF assumed she would believe it, no one can know for certain what another person will or believe but if LF didn't think the letter would have any affect at all what was the point in sending it? 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course there's no evidence for it. If there was there would be no point in discussing it. There's no evidence that Joffrey or Mance or anyone else sent the catspaw other than the cryptic references in the text. On that score, we do have Littlefinger explaining how he manipulated Joffrey over the dwarf joust, and he could very well have done the same thing with Ned's execution. He's one of the few people who knows how to get Joffrey to do things he wouldn't do otherwise -- not by simply telling him that this is what he must do, but by subtly working his ego and his loathing for those he considers inferior. The only other person who seems to have figured this out is Margaery

Well it's not concluded in the text, on that we agree. If LF being able to manipulate Joffrey is evidence that he put the catspaw in motion then why isn't it evidence for every thing Joffrey has done? I don't see this as evidence that LF had his hand in it, only that LF is capable of such a ploy. But so is Joffrey alone, or Mance alone. Two characters in text conclude Joffrey did it. That's hardly cryptic. I don't think it's conclusive either but it's more than we have on LF 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, there's a chance that Joffrey won't act (he almost didn't), but there's even less of a chance that Luwin will find the message in the box. I mean, who gets an anonymous gift and immediately assumes this is some sort of highborn subterfuge telling him to examine the packaging? The most likely thing to expect is that Luwin would assume it is a courtesy gift from Pycelle or maybe some old friend who is now serving at a seat along the kingsroad.

I think you are misunderstanding me. I don't mean that Luwin immediately assumed any highborn subterfuge. I mean Luwin got an unmarked packaged delivered by an unknown person. It would be natural to examine it to figure out what sort of box it is, what the contents are, who may have sent them. He is a Maester & I would think being observant & questioning would be in his nature. 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

LF does not have to tell Joffrey any secrets about his parentage. He just has to make up some lie as to why Ned's presence would be detrimental to Robert's reign and perhaps even his own chances of becoming king one day. And if Joffrey were to overhear Cersei fretting over Ned as well...

What might this lie be? Again, it would have to plausible, Joffrey would have to believe it, & give a shit enough about it to act. It would most likely have to be something detrimental to both his & Robert's reign as Joff may like the idea of ending his father's reign. 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The attempt was orchestrated exactly as you said: wait until we're gone before striking

I apologize as I must have misunderstood you here. I thought you were saying Joff didn't make the plans, hire the catspaw, etc until after he left WF. 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but I refuse to believe that all of these random, unconnected pieces on the pile always work out exactly in Littlefinger's favor. I've already given him a pass on the Luwin note and Cat just happening to run into Tyrion on the King's Road, but at some point all of these happy coincidences become too much to believe.

But they aren't all connected. We know they aren't. We know LF had nothing to do with Bran's fall & wouldn't even have known about it & without Bran's fall the catspaw doesn't happen. I'm not sure what you mean by giving LF a pass on Luwin's note. It was Cat's note & LF doesn't need a pass - we know he did it. This just doesn't ring true to me at all. There's nothing to indicate LF had anything to do with the catspaw or at manipulating Joff. I think if LF was going to plot a murder he could have came up with much better ways than trying to manipulate Joffrey into hiring someone to do it. 

[LynnS]

I've also wondered if it was the Catspaw who also delivered the box with the lens and the letter to Luwin and if Pycelle or the Citadel was colluding with Petyr.  Or if Petyr just took advantage of the attempted assassination to point the finger as Tyrion.  There is also the destruction of the library tower and all it contained.   The question is what does the Citadel know that it wants to contain and whether or not Bran is seen as a threat.  There is no doubt that there are those who know more about the old gods and prophecies than they let on.  There is an ongoing mandate to kill anyone who knows too much, if Marwyn is to be believed.  The appearance of direwolves after 200 years would make anyone with some knowledge about it sit up straight and pay attention. You could consider the direwolves as a sign or portent. The maesters regularly report to the Citadel on matters of the weather and must correspond with each other on a regular basis.  At least Aemon seems to have been in contact with his counterparts.   There is a master of spies located at the Citadel, another spider if we take the Prologue of FFC into account.

Tyrion's assessment of Pycelle:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion VI

"For the realm! Once Rhaegar died, the war was done. Aerys was mad, Viserys too young, Prince Aegon a babe at the breast, but the realm needed a king . . . I prayed it should be your good father, but Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly . . ."

"How many have you betrayed, I wonder? Aerys, Eddard Stark, me . . . King Robert as well? Lord Arryn, Prince Rhaegar? Where does it begin, Pycelle?" He knew where it ended.

Tyrion's BS detection meter is always to be respected.  Pycelle appears to be a catspaw if ever there was one. 

There is also this dream, where Bran is being watched and knows that he is not safe:

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Bran IV

In his dream he was climbing again, pulling himself up an ancient windowless tower, his fingers forcing themselves between blackened stones, his feet scrabbling for purchase. Higher and higher he climbed, through the clouds and into the night sky, and still the tower rose before him. When he paused to look down, his head swam dizzily and he felt his fingers slipping. Bran cried out and clung for dear life. The earth was a thousand miles beneath him and he could not fly. He could not fly. He waited until his heart had stopped pounding, until he could breathe, and he began to climb again. There was no way to go but up. Far above him, outlined against a vast pale moon, he thought he could see the shapes of gargoyles. His arms were sore and aching, but he dared not rest. He forced himself to climb faster. The gargoyles watched him ascend. Their eyes glowed red as hot coals in a brazier. Perhaps once they had been lions, but now they were twisted and grotesque. Bran could hear them whispering to each other in soft stone voices terrible to hear. He must not listen, he told himself, he must not hear, so long as he did not hear them he was safe. But when the gargoyles pulled themselves loose from the stone and padded down the side of the tower to where Bran clung, he knew he was not safe after all. "I didn't hear," he wept as they came closer and closer, "I didn't, I didn't."

 

On first blush, this would seem to be a nightmare about overhearing Cersei and Jaimie but it transforms into something else.  Eyes glowing red as coals in a brazier implies that he is being watched in someone's fires either the Red Lot or someone using glass candles.  We know from Melisandre's vision that Bran and Bloodraven are able to break into her visions.  It seems that Bran can already watch the watchers himself.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Well telling someone to put the box in Luwin's chambers is giving him instructions. Don't let anyone see you = be stealthy. LF would had to have told the person not to say where the box came from if caught, or to not place the box at all if caught if that was still an option. I didn't mean to imply LF would have let him in on the whole plot but he definitely would have done everything I said in the passage quoted. 

 

Well, yeah, the person placing the box would need instructions to do that, but that doesn't make him an "agent." And what exactly would he be "caught" doing? Delivering a package. No big deal, unless for some bewildering reason, LF decides to fill this person in on the whole scheme just so he can deliver the package properly? I dunno, this whole train of thought sort of leads into the desert.

20 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Because he just found an unmarked box, addressed to no one, after the King & all his people have arrived. A King that is married to & brought with him a Queen that Ned doesn't trust. Along with the Queen's brother. Maybe we just have to agree to disagree here but I have a hard time seeing why Luwin wouldn't examine the box a little in an effort to see who may have left it, where it came from, etc. 

Sure, he might look over the box to see if the note was inside, but that is a far cry from guessing that the lens is a signal for him to look deeper and then discovering a hidden bottom with a secret note inside. As far as we know, LF does not know Luwin, never met him, has no way of knowing if he has a suspicious nature. And until we read this note, there is no indication at all, particularly to Luwin, that the King's party has brought any kind of intrigue with them. But I'm willing to accept Luwin's story, handing one more piece of extraordinary luck to Littlefinger. but luck only runs so far -- and the sheer number of lucky strokes for LF starts to strain credibility at some point.

20 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

But what Lysa believes is not irrelevant. LF would not plant the message if he didn't think Cat would at least read it with an open mind. You are correct that he doesn't need her to believe it, he only needs to create doubt. You are the one that said "What makes LF believe the note will have any affect at all" My answer was because Lysa knew Cat would believe it. At least her & LF assumed she would believe it, no one can know for certain what another person will or believe but if LF didn't think the letter would have any affect at all what was the point in sending it? 

Well, you answer your own question when you say "no one can know for certain what another person will ... believe", which backs up my point that LF cannot rely on this letter alone for stirring up the trouble he needs between wolf and lion. He may assume all he likes, but he doesn't know for certain how either Cat or Ned will react. But by sowing the doubt with the letter, and then backing it up with a suspicious murder, now he's really got the ball rolling.

20 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Well it's not concluded in the text, on that we agree. If LF being able to manipulate Joffrey is evidence that he put the catspaw in motion then why isn't it evidence for every thing Joffrey has done? I don't see this as evidence that LF had his hand in it, only that LF is capable of such a ploy. But so is Joffrey alone, or Mance alone. Two characters in text conclude Joffrey did it. That's hardly cryptic. I don't think it's conclusive either but it's more than we have on LF 

Agreed. All these possibilities are on the table. My inclusion of Littlefinger in the Joffrey theory is simply to give Joffrey a more plausible reason than what has been surmised by the POVs. Showing how LF has manipulated Joffrey at other times is merely to point out that LF is good at this. But there is no evidence that he did this with the catspaw, just as there is no real evidence supporting Mance or Robert or anyone else.

And I think we can look at some of Joffrey's other actions to see the hidden hand of Littlefinger; namely, Ned's execution, but also the little ride in the country with Sansa, perhaps some of the beatings that Sansa took -- and even some non-Joffrey-related events as well, like Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion on the Blackwater.

21 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think you are misunderstanding me. I don't mean that Luwin immediately assumed any highborn subterfuge. I mean Luwin got an unmarked packaged delivered by an unknown person. It would be natural to examine it to figure out what sort of box it is, what the contents are, who may have sent them. He is a Maester & I would think being observant & questioning would be in his nature. 

That's not what he told Cat and Ned:

Quote

"Inside was a fine new lens for the observatory, from Myr by the look of it. The lenscrafters of Myr are without equal."

Ned frowned. He had little patience for this sort of thing, Catelyn knew. "A lens," he said. "What has that to do with me?"

"I asked the same question," Maester Luwin said. "Clearly there was more to this than the seeming."

Under the heavy weight of her furs, Catelyn shivered. "A lens is an instrument to help us see."

"Indeed it is." > snip

"What is it that they would have us see more clearly?"

"The very thing I asked myself." Maester Luwin drew a tightly rolled paper out of this sleeve. "I found the true message concealed within a false bottom when I dismantled the box..."

So not only is Luwin suspicious of a simple box left in his chambers, but he is convinced that the lens is a secret message for him to look deeper, which he does far beyond the point of merely examining the box but by disassembling it. And as yet, there is absolutely no reason at all for Luwin to be suspicious. Nothing untoward has happened with the King's party outside of some petty squabbling in the practice yard. This is a complete overreaction to a simple box, but it is the perfect outcome for Littlefinger.

21 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

What might this lie be? Again, it would have to plausible, Joffrey would have to believe it, & give a shit enough about it to act. It would most likely have to be something detrimental to both his & Robert's reign as Joff may like the idea of ending his father's reign. 

Who knows. LF is an expert liar. Ned is a sniveling, craven, power-hungry northman who will do anything to escape his frigid land and rule the 7K from comfort of KL, killing Robert, you, your mother and anyone else who gets in his way. Or even better, Ned will want you to marry his pale, insipid daughter, only to murder you when she bears your son. All kinds of horror stories that LF could spin.

21 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I apologize as I must have misunderstood you here. I thought you were saying Joff didn't make the plans, hire the catspaw, etc until after he left WF. 

It could have gone either way: either just before they left or he sent the paw back afterward.

21 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

But they aren't all connected. We know they aren't. We know LF had nothing to do with Bran's fall & wouldn't even have known about it & without Bran's fall the catspaw doesn't happen. I'm not sure what you mean by giving LF a pass on Luwin's note. It was Cat's note & LF doesn't need a pass - we know he did it. This just doesn't ring true to me at all. There's nothing to indicate LF had anything to do with the catspaw or at manipulating Joff. I think if LF was going to plot a murder he could have came up with much better ways than trying to manipulate Joffrey into hiring someone to do it. 

No, like I said at the top of this thread, LF does not need to know anything about Bran's fall or anything else happening at Winterfell in order to be behind the attempt. All he needs to tell Joffrey is that some kind of tragedy must befall the Starks in order to prevent Ned from becoming Hand. When Bran fell, it would appear to Joffrey that the problem had resolved itself, but then Ned accepts the job anyway, so Joffrey has to send the catspaw. If Bran hadn't fallen, it would have been one of the other children, probably Sansa.

The pass on Luwin's note is the fact that he found it at all. The most reasonable conclusion is that it was some sort of mistake, not a sign to rip the box apart. So LF gets a pass on this lucky break that Luwin is apparently suspicious of everything, even though he does not exhibit this characteristic at any other time. He also gets a pass for the extraordinary coincidence between Cat and Tyrion on the King's Road; so that's two. How many completely random, extremely unlikely, but oh so fortunate (for Littlefinger) events are we going to chalk up to mere coincidence before we concede that maybe the guy is actually pulling the strings here?

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

18 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The pass on Luwin's note is the fact that he found it at all. The most reasonable conclusion is that it was some sort of mistake, not a sign to rip the box apart.

I'm all for finding mystery where none exists but come on... 

If you find an expensive gift, from a distant land, anonymously left for you, it's totally reasonable to be suspicious.

Presumably people aren't leaving Lewin gift boxes on the regular... So unless Lewin had a Myrish mistress sending him presents we never heard of, he had every reason to be super suspicious.

The rest is explained in your quote in plain English. Upon inspecting the box he found the note.