A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

[John Suburbs]

On ‎2‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 9:28 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

You & I have danced this dance & come to some what of a truce I think. You have managed to convince me things could have happened the way you suspect, & correct me if I'm wrong but you are under the assumption that the dagger was meant to be found even if the catspaw succeeded no? At any rate I think in order to believe LF influenced Joff one would have to believe the dagger was meant to be found other wise it accomplishes nothing in the way of adding to the Starks suspicions regarding the Lannisters. 

I'll add another thought here if you don't mind.

Littlefinger might not care if the dagger is found, and might not even be aware that this particular dagger is being used, but Joffrey might. Remember, Joffrey does not know about the Arryn letter, so he does not know that Stark suspicion of the Lannisters is already piqued. So if Joffrey's goal is to prevent Ned from becoming hand, then the best way to do that would be to murder a Stark child and sow distrust between Ned and Robert. Since the knife is Robert's and has no known connection to the Lannisters (because Joffrey would also not know of the lie that Littlefinger will tell in the future), then discovery of the knife after the murder would cast suspicion on Robert, especially if his comments about putting Bran out of his misery were to come to light. So I doubt even Joffrey would be so obvious as to tell the catspaw to murder the boy and leave the dagger sticking out of his chest, but he might instruct him to toss it out the window or arrange it so that it looks like someone tried to dispose of it but will most certainly be found.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'll add another thought here if you don't mind.

Littlefinger might not care if the dagger is found, and might not even be aware that this particular dagger is being used, but Joffrey might. Remember, Joffrey does not know about the Arryn letter, so he does not know that Stark suspicion of the Lannisters is already piqued. So if Joffrey's goal is to prevent Ned from becoming hand, then the best way to do that would be to murder a Stark child and sow distrust between Ned and Robert. Since the knife is Robert's and has no known connection to the Lannisters (because Joffrey would also not know of the lie that Littlefinger will tell in the future), then discovery of the knife after the murder would cast suspicion on Robert, especially if his comments about putting Bran out of his misery were to come to light. So I doubt even Joffrey would be so obvious as to tell the catspaw to murder the boy and leave the dagger sticking out of his chest, but he might instruct him to toss it out the window or arrange it so that it looks like someone tried to dispose of it but will most certainly be found.

Of course I don't mind. I always enjoy chatting with you. 

We agree the knife was meant to be found. I personally feel for all of it to work, no matter the culprit, the knife needs to be found. 

Something I've always thought was odd was that Joffrey never takes any credit for it. He loves torturing Sansa & rejoices in her grief over lost loved ones. It seems quite odd to me that Joffrey never once told Sansa he meant to kill Bran. Who could or would do anything to him about it? I suppose it could be argued that he didn't mention it because it didn't work but the CS did succeed in slicing up Cats hand & I definitely could see Joffrey relishing in telling Sansa how hurting her mother was his doings &/or after Bran is believed to be killed by Theon for Joff to say something like "He didn't escape death this time, it would have worked last time had the CS not been so incompetent" 

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Of course I don't mind. I always enjoy chatting with you. 

We agree the knife was meant to be found. I personally feel for all of it to work, no matter the culprit, the knife needs to be found. 

Something I've always thought was odd was that Joffrey never takes any credit for it. He loves torturing Sansa & rejoices in her grief over lost loved ones. It seems quite odd to me that Joffrey never once told Sansa he meant to kill Bran. Who could or would do anything to him about it? I suppose it could be argued that he didn't mention it because it didn't work but the CS did succeed in slicing up Cats hand & I definitely could see Joffrey relishing in telling Sansa how hurting her mother was his doings &/or after Bran is believed to be killed by Theon for Joff to say something like "He didn't escape death this time, it would have worked last time had the CS not been so incompetent" 

Good point. Mayhaps he was planning to do just that as he was planting a bastard in her belly. I doubt even Joffrey would be stupid enough to admit to that crime in front of witnesses.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

On 13.11.2017 at 5:19 PM, ChuckPunch said:

Nah it was Joff. Here's a Reddit post that goes into it in detail.

I still find it hard to believe that Joffrey was smart enough to hire an assassin.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

21 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Of course I don't mind. I always enjoy chatting with you. 

We agree the knife was meant to be found. I personally feel for all of it to work, no matter the culprit, the knife needs to be found. 

Something I've always thought was odd was that Joffrey never takes any credit for it. He loves torturing Sansa & rejoices in her grief over lost loved ones. It seems quite odd to me that Joffrey never once told Sansa he meant to kill Bran. Who could or would do anything to him about it?

The taboo tied to the guest right may be that strong, that it would give even Joffrey a pause. Grampa Tywin, for one, might be unhappy with Joffrey (if not for the deed itself, then for bragging about it and tarnishing the priceless family name), and Grampa Tywin being unhappy with Joffrey would be a Seriously Bad Thing for the latter.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I still find it hard to believe that Joffrey was smart enough to hire an assassin.

GRRM doesn't

[the trees have eyes]

4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I still find it hard to believe that Joffrey was smart enough to hire an assassin.

Why though?  It hardly takes a genius to do so.

[Lollygag]

I'm rethinking the Hound's involvement lately. I know he's a popular character and is certainly a fascinating character, but I still can't look past this which happened at about the same time as Bran's attack. Guilt might also explain why he tried to help Sansa and Arya so much. The Hound dreamed of being a knight/was playing with Gregor's knights and was permanently maimed by a knight. Bran also dreamed of being a knight and was permanently maimed by a knight. 

AGOT Eddard III

There was something slung over the back of his destrier, a heavy shape wrapped in a bloody cloak. "No sign of your daughter, Hand," the Hound rasped down, "but the day was not wholly wasted. We got her little pet." He reached back and shoved the burden off, and it fell with a thump in front of Ned.

Bending, Ned pulled back the cloak, dreading the words he would have to find for Arya, but it was not Nymeria after all. It was the butcher's boy, Mycah, his body covered in dried blood. He had been cut almost in half from shoulder to waist by some terrible blow struck from above.

 

• Tyrion overhears Joff and the Hound discussing it.
• Tyrion later *assumes* that a servant brought a cash a weapons.
• He then *assumes* Joff was smart enough to wait until leaving Winterfell but a few pages later we see Joff being excessively stupid at the purple wedding.
• Tyrion thinks that the Hound would have gone to Cersei, but why would Joff be so fond of the Hound if he tattled on him to his mom all of the time? Cersei says that Joff needed someone to blame for Robert's death, but we see through Tyrion that Joff doesn't care meaning Cersei lied about how the Hound came into his position in the KG. 
• He recalls Joff saying he knows VS steel, but in the same chapter Marg has tell him that VS steel isn't for cutting pies. 
• Joff's dagger has an elaborate hilt which is probably fairly common for families who wish to display their wealth. I think it's meant as a contrast to the very plain VS dagger which sounds to me like a deliberate style choice. If you can afford VS steel, you can manage to bling it up. The Cleganes are noted for their blingless style. 

 

ACOK Sansa I

"I am sorry for your loss as well, Joffrey," the dwarf said.

"What loss?"

"Your royal father? A large fierce man with a black beard; you'll recall him if you try. He was king before you."

"Oh, him. Yes, it was very sad, a boar killed him."

"Is that what 'they' say, Your Grace?"

AGOT Tyrion IX

His father had not raised his voice, yet Tyrion could see the anger in the gold of his eyes. "And dismissing Selmy, where was the sense in that? Yes, the man was old, but the name of Barristan the Bold still has meaning in the realm. He lent honor to any man he served. Can anyone say the same of the Hound? You feed your dog bones under the table, you do not seat him beside you on the high bench." He pointed a finger at Tyrion's face. "If Cersei cannot curb the boy, you must. And if these councillors are playing us false …"

ACOK Tyrion I

"His Grace has a unique way of winning the hearts of his subjects," Tyrion said with a crooked smile. "Was it Joffrey's wish to dismiss Ser Barristan Selmy from his Kingsguard too?"

Cersei sighed. "Joff wanted someone to blame for Robert's death. Varys suggested Ser Barristan. Why not? It gave Jaime command of the Kingsguard and a seat on the small council, and allowed Joff to throw a bone to his dog. He is very fond of Sandor Clegane. We were prepared to offer Selmy some land and a towerhouse, more than the useless old fool deserved."

 

ASOS Tyrion VIII

He remembered a cold morning when he'd climbed down the steep exterior steps from Winterfell's library to find Prince Joffrey jesting with the Hound about killing wolves. Send a dog to kill a wolf, he said. Even Joffrey was not so foolish as to command Sandor Clegane to slay a son of Eddard Stark, however; the Hound would have gone to Cersei. Instead the boy found his catspaw among the unsavory lot of freeriders, merchants, and camp followers who'd attached themselves to the king's party as they made their way north. Some poxy lackwit willing to risk his life for a prince's favor and a little coin. Tyrion wondered whose idea it had been to wait until Robert left Winterfell before opening Bran's throat. Joff's, most like. No doubt he thought it was the height of cunning.

The prince's own dagger had a jeweled pommel and inlaid goldwork on the blade, Tyrion seemed to recall. At least Joff had not been stupid enough to use that. Instead he went poking among his father's weapons. Robert Baratheon was a man of careless generosity, and would have given his son any dagger he wanted . . . but Tyrion guessed that the boy had just taken it. Robert had come to Winterfell with a long tail of knights and retainers, a huge wheelhouse, and a baggage train. No doubt some diligent servant had made certain that the king's weapons went with him, in case he should desire any of them.

The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke. I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger's knife.

…

King Joffrey and his queen met the pie below the dais. As Joff drew his sword, Margaery laid a hand on his arm to restrain him. "Widow's Wail was not meant for slicing pies."

"True." Joffrey lifted his voice. "Ser Ilyn, your sword!"

AGOT Eddard III

There was something slung over the back of his destrier, a heavy shape wrapped in a bloody cloak. "No sign of your daughter, Hand," the Hound rasped down, "but the day was not wholly wasted. We got her little pet." He reached back and shoved the burden off, and it fell with a thump in front of Ned.

Bending, Ned pulled back the cloak, dreading the words he would have to find for Arya, but it was not Nymeria after all. It was the butcher's boy, Mycah, his body covered in dried blood. He had been cut almost in half from shoulder to waist by some terrible blow struck from above.

 

AGOT Tyrion VIII

Clegane had no splendor about him; his armor was steel plate, dull grey, scarred by hard use and showing neither sigil nor ornament. He was pointing men into position with his blade, a two-handed greatsword that Ser Gregor waved about with one hand as a lesser man might wave a dagger. "Any man runs, I'll cut him down myself," he was roaring when he caught sight of Tyrion. "Imp! Take the left. Hold the river. If you can."

AGOT Eddard VII

Sandor Clegane was the first rider to appear. He wore an olive-green cloak over his soot-grey armor. That, and his hound's-head helm, were his only concession to ornament.

ASOS Tyrion X

Cersei seemed half a child herself beside Ser Gregor. In his armor, the Mountain looked bigger than any man had any right to be. Beneath a long yellow surcoat bearing the three black dogs of Clegane, he wore heavy plate over chainmail, dull grey steel dinted and scarred in battle. Beneath that would be boiled leather and a layer of quilting. A flat-topped greathelm was bolted to his gorget, with breaths around the mouth and nose and a narrow slit for vision. The crest atop it was a stone fist.

If Ser Gregor was suffering from wounds, Tyrion could see no sign of it from across the yard. He looks as though he was chiseled out of rock, standing there. His greatsword was planted in the ground before him, six feet of scarred metal. Ser Gregor's huge hands, clad in gauntlets of lobstered steel, clasped the crosshilt to either side of the grip. Even Prince Oberyn's paramour paled at the sight of him. "You are going to fight that?" Ellaria Sand said in a hushed voice.

 

**** I believe GRRM's explanation as given but I think some details have been left out for plot reasons.