A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

[divica]

15 minutes ago, RhaegoTheUnborn said:

So is everyone in agreement that Joffrey was behind it? Tyrion basically puts this together based off of Joffreys statement "I'm no stranger to Valyrian steel" and his conversation with Sandor Clegane about killing wolves when they were in Winterfell. I don't know on this one, this is one of the few instances where I see Tyrion coming to conclusions that may not be true, partly based off his well-deserved hatred of his nephew. If Joffrey really did do it, I just can't understand a reason as to why.

You can always think that littlefinger convinced him. He is good at manipulating people and killing bran would further his agenda... 

 

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, divica said:

You can always think that littlefinger convinced him. He is good at manipulating people and killing bran would further his agenda... 

 

That's the most likely reason I can think of for Joffrey sending the catspaw. Mercy? Hardly. Wanting to impress his daddy? Not.

But just to be clear: LF did not have to tell Joff to specifically kill Bran, nor does LF need to know about Bran's fall. Before leaving King's Landing, simply manipulating Joffrey into believing that the death of any Stark child would prevent Ned from accepting the job as Hand (the Hand job?) would be enough.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

20 hours ago, RhaegoTheUnborn said:

So is everyone in agreement that Joffrey was behind it? Tyrion basically puts this together based off of Joffreys statement "I'm no stranger to Valyrian steel" and his conversation with Sandor Clegane about killing wolves when they were in Winterfell. I don't know on this one, this is one of the few instances where I see Tyrion coming to conclusions that may not be true, partly based off his well-deserved hatred of his nephew. If Joffrey really did do it, I just can't understand a reason as to why.

No

Joff also ordered Ned’s execution, and stood right there watching Payne swing a two handed chop just like Joff does to the book Tyrion gave him (the sword he’s using was even madness from Ice), so could very well have been referring to that. Not to mention why would one familiar with Valyrian steel give it to an assassin? Why give the assassin a knife at all, let alone a unique one? The guy was already paid in silver.

The conversation between Joff and Sandor is remembered incorrectly by Tyrion. He gets the quote wrong. They are talking about the literal wolf, and the howling.

The case against Joff amounts to an off hand comment, a misremembered conversation, and that he might have had access to the dagger.

Mance is a far better suspect:

Quote

The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Why give the assassin a knife at all, let alone a unique one? The guy was already paid in silver

To be fair the dagger is actually said to be plain. Not arguing the Joff theory one way or another but it would make sense for Joff (if he did it) while looking through his father's knives to pick a relatively plain one in comparison to the others. One not easily missed or easily recognizable. Of course for the talk of the knife being plain it still seems to be easily recognizable so 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

15 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

To be fair the dagger is actually said to be plain. Not arguing the Joff theory one way or another but it would make sense for Joff (if he did it) while looking through his father's knives to pick a relatively plain one in comparison to the others. One not easily missed or easily recognizable. Of course for the talk of the knife being plain it still seems to be easily recognizable so 

Sorry my point was the catspaw is being sent to kill a cripple who was s’posed to be alone... He doesn’t need to be equipped from the kings armory.

He could use his hands, or a kitchen knife, or a pillow.

It wouldn’t make any sense for Joff to give a would be assassin a weapon at all... let alone a unique one.

[LynnS]

54 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Sorry my point was the catspaw is being sent to kill a cripple who was s’posed to be alone... He doesn’t need to be equipped from the kings armory.

He could use his hands, or a kitchen knife, or a pillow.

It wouldn’t make any sense for Joff to give a would be assassin a weapon at all... let alone a unique one.

Yes, so that specific choice of weapon has another purpose.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎11‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 8:58 AM, Chrissie said:

So, in A Storm of Swords, Joffery states that he isn't a stranger of Valerian Steel and this causes Tyrion to suspect him of sending the catspaw to kill Bran. He mulls it over later and goes through what he knows but is unable to come up with a possible motive for Joffery. But later Jamie, after making it back to Kings Landing, asks Cersi if she sent the catspaw, she says she didn't but does say that Robert believed Houses should be given the right to kill their disabled children, so Jamie deducts that Joffery sent the catspaw to impress Robert.

Now, I think we are supposed to question Tyrion's logic, the fact that he decides that Joffery must be a stranger to Valerian Steel to choose that dagger negates the reason for him suspecting Joffery in the first place. And that Joffery had to be stupid enough to use a dagger that traced back to him but still make the catspaw wait until he had left Winterfell, so nobody would have suspected him. I think Tyrion's chapter proves that Joffery sending the catspaw makes little sense.

But the problem I have with believing someone like Littlefinger did it is that why have people go through what they think happened only to have it be someone who nobody considered for reasons not yet known? Surely that makes those chapters there just to mislead the reader? I think we were given the information we needed just not told the right answer.

So, for the longest time I thought it was Cersi, mainly for the reason above but also it kinda irked me that the reason she was dismissed as a suspect was that she wouldn't be stupid enough to use a dagger that traced back to her, which I don't necessarily disagree with, but an estimation of Cersi's intelligence is down to opinion and wouldn't it be just as stupid of her to have a witness to her incest and not do anything about it? And you don't remove the person with the strongest motive from your suspect list because she can get hold of the murder weapon. But then it came to me, the dagger doesn't trace back to Cersi, it was Robert's dagger.

Cersi incest + Robert's belief on disabled children + Joffery wanting to impress his "father" = catspaw sent to kill Bran

Cersi incest + Robert's belief on disabled children + Joffery wanting to impress his "father" (- Cersi wouldn't be stupid enough to use a dagger that traces back to her - Joffery sending the catspaw doesn't make sense) = catspaw sent to kill Bran

Robert's belief on disabled children = catspaw sent to kill Bran

My theory is that King Robert sent the catspaw to kill Bran. He believes that Houses should kill their disabled children, he cares about House Stark and he knows Ned is never going to do it, or agree to it. As for the dagger tracing back to him? Well, he's the King, does he really have to care? It wasn't one of his favorite daggers, so it was probably just a "here have this" moment. And it explains why the catspaw was shocked to find Catelyn, a true assassin would kill anyone who got in his way but being sent by the King surely changes things. Surely this guy would want to impress? In the book we are told how Cersi and Joffery cannot be the culprits and hidden in there is a new piece of information that implicates King Robert and gives him his motive, and he also can get hold of the murder weapon.

So anyway, I am pretty content with this theory but would love to know what others think.

The person who sent the catspaw was Petyr Baelish .  The catspaw is an assassin he only need a weapon that cannot be traced to him and a target .The weapon was the Valyrian dagger , which Petyr claimed he lost it to Tyrion , while Tyrion claim he would never bet against Jaime, while Jaime said that it was Robert's .But the only blade that Robert uses is the one given to him by Jon Arryn . The Valyrian dagger was probably in the armory where anybody could take it .

The target  ; Even though the catspaw tried to kill Bran IMHO the true target was Jon Snow . We all know Catelyn's feeling about Jon . According to AGOT  Catelyn chapter she has been trying to get Jon sent away, Catelyn complain to her fellow Tullys that she did trust Jon, and Lysa could have easily told Petyr. The death of Jon would enrage Eddard and relieve Catelyn , the catspaw could not get to Jon , because is either off with Ghost or getting ready for going to the wall . so next is a target of opportunity , an unconscious Bran .

Why not  Joffrey ?   Bran was dying peacefully , Joffrey wanted the wolves killed  in order to stop their howling . 

[Kandrax]

It would be almost impossible for Petyr to learn about Bran's fall and then sends a catspaw from King's landing to Winterfell, while Mance have no reason to believe that hiring someone to kill Bran would cause war between Starks and Lannisters.                                   

[the trees have eyes]

On 28/01/2018 at 8:26 AM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

The target  ; Even though the catspaw tried to kill Bran IMHO the true target was Jon Snow .<snip>, the catspaw could not get to Jon , because is either off with Ghost or getting ready for going to the wall . so next is a target of opportunity , an unconscious Bran .

Do assassins disregard their targets and pick the next best thing?  Assassinations are personal and there is usually (read always) a specific objective in mind in removing an individual.  Removing a different individual fails to achieve that objective and will start a different and unintended course of events that may have nothing to do with the original objective.  So whatever motive you ascribe to the removal of Jon Snow - apparently to please Catelyn - is obviously negated by leaving Jon alive and well and killing her favourite child, her sweet Bran, who was not dying at this stage but had stabilised into a coma from which he might (and did) wake at any moment.

[Lady Anna]

On 22/12/2017 at 2:24 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Sorry my point was the catspaw is being sent to kill a cripple who was s’posed to be alone... He doesn’t need to be equipped from the kings armory.

He could use his hands, or a kitchen knife, or a pillow.

It wouldn’t make any sense for Joff to give a would be assassin a weapon at all... let alone a unique one.

Well, neither Joff nor the catspaw are particularly clever people. And, from another point of view, the use of the dagger triggered a chain of events necessary for the story's progress.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎1‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 4:41 AM, Kandrax said:

It would be almost impossible for Petyr to learn about Bran's fall and then sends a catspaw from King's landing to Winterfell, while Mance have no reason to believe that hiring someone to kill Bran would cause war between Starks and Lannisters.                                   

He doesn't need to know. Before leaving King's Landing, LF could have manipulated Joff into believing that Ned as Hand would be very bad for House Lannister and Joffrey personally, and that only the death of a Stark child would prevent that from happening. After Bran fell and it looked like he was going to die, it would seem to Joff that the situation had resolved itself. But when Bran pulled through and Ned took the job anyway, Joff sent the catspaw to finish the job. If it hadn't been Bran, Joff would have chosen one of the other Stark children, probably Sansa.

I'm not saying this is what actually happened, mind you, but this is how LF could have been behind it all without knowing about Bran's fall.

[divica]

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He doesn't need to know. Before leaving King's Landing, LF could have manipulated Joff into believing that Ned as Hand would be very bad for House Lannister and Joffrey personally, and that only the death of a Stark child would prevent that from happening. After Bran fell and it looked like he was going to die, it would seem to Joff that the situation had resolved itself. But when Bran pulled through and Ned took the job anyway, Joff sent the catspaw to finish the job. If it hadn't been Bran, Joff would have chosen one of the other Stark children, probably Sansa.

I'm not saying this is what actually happened, mind you, but this is how LF could have been behind it all without knowing about Bran's fall.

If joff was behind the catspaw I think it fits better that the catspaw was LF agent. So joff decides to show off to his dad and send someone to kill the cripple and he uses LF agent (which LF has put close to joff) to do the deed. Then the agent is a smart dude and knows that LF wants war between the lannisters and starks so he chooses an easy to identify dagger that he was planning to leave in bran's corpse. This would lead cat to start an investigation and LF could use their friendship to lead her into thinking it was some lannister.

So although LF didn t plan the morder his agent tried to use the oportunity to help LF.

On ‎28‎/‎01‎/‎2018 at 9:41 AM, Kandrax said:

It would be almost impossible for Petyr to learn about Bran's fall and then sends a catspaw from King's landing to Winterfell, while Mance have no reason to believe that hiring someone to kill Bran would cause war between Starks and Lannisters.                                   

If mance stole a indentifiable dagger from robbert and then hired someone to kill bran and leave the dagger then he has all reasons to believe it would lead to a war between the starks and robbert.

It was just a matter of the starks finding that the owner of the dagger is robbert. Even if it didn t lead to a war it would distract the northmen from the wildlings and cut off the possibility of the IT helping the north fighting the wildlings. 

[John Suburbs]

5 minutes ago, divica said:

If joff was behind the catspaw I think it fits better that the catspaw was LF agent. So joff decides to show off to his dad and send someone to kill the cripple and he uses LF agent (which LF has put close to joff) to do the deed. Then the agent is a smart dude and knows that LF wants war between the lannisters and starks so he chooses an easy to identify dagger that he was planning to leave in bran's corpse. This would lead cat to start an investigation and LF could use their friendship to lead her into thinking it was some lannister.

So although LF didn t plan the morder his agent tried to use the oportunity to help LF.

 

I dunno. He doesn't strike me as a very intelligent guy. He seems completely flummoxed by the idea that a grieving mother would not go rushing off to a fire while her son is at death's door. I'm thinking that if LF had his own agent at Winterfell, he'd be a little sharper than that.

With LF as the instigator, however, it's up to Joffrey to plan out the actual assassination, which is why it was so poorly done and why the plan and the killer were so inept.

 

[Kandrax]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

He doesn't need to know. Before leaving King's Landing, LF could have manipulated Joff into believing that Ned as Hand would be very bad for House Lannister and Joffrey personally, and that only the death of a Stark child would prevent that from happening. After Bran fell and it looked like he was going to die, it would seem to Joff that the situation had resolved itself. But when Bran pulled through and Ned took the job anyway, Joff sent the catspaw to finish the job. If it hadn't been Bran, Joff would have chosen one of the other Stark children, probably Sansa.

I'm not saying this is what actually happened, mind you, but this is how LF could have been behind it all without knowing about Bran's fall.

Holy shit!!! Sparring match between him and Robb.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Holy shit!!! Sparring match between him and Robb.

Eh, maybe. I hadn't thought of that. I'd be surprised if Joffrey would actually think he could kill Robb sparring with live steel, and then claim it was an accident. He doesn't strike me as a very good swordsman, but he does have an inflated ego of himself and imagines himself killing Robb and Stannis later during the war, so I guess it's possible.

But it most certainly would not have worked. Robb would have kicked his scrawny ass.

[Lady Anna]

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Eh, maybe. I hadn't thought of that. I'd be surprised if Joffrey would actually think he could kill Robb sparring with live steel, and then claim it was an accident. He doesn't strike me as a very good swordsman, but he does have an inflated ego of himself and imagines himself killing Robb and Stannis later during the war, so I guess it's possible.

But it most certainly would not have worked. Robb would have kicked his scrawny ass.

Following that up, maybe he tried to kill Bran to get back at Robb too (besides wanting to please daddy). It would be a blow to Robb and the whole family (Bran also ''defeated'' Tommen).

[Kandrax]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Eh, maybe. I hadn't thought of that. I'd be surprised if Joffrey would actually think he could kill Robb sparring with live steel, and then claim it was an accident. He doesn't strike me as a very good swordsman, but he does have an inflated ego of himself and imagines himself killing Robb and Stannis later during the war, so I guess it's possible.

But it most certainly would not have worked. Robb would have kicked his scrawny ass.

He is described as tall and strong for his age. 

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Kandrax said:

He is described as tall and strong for his age. 

Yes, but he is a piss-poor swordsman:

Quote

Sansa IV, SoS

Joffrey brought Widow's Wail down in a savage two-handed slice, onto the book that Tyrion had given him. The heavy leather cover parted at a stroke. "Sharp! I told you, I am no stranger to Valyrian steel" It took him half a dozen further cuts to hack the thick tome apart, and the boy was breathless by the time he was done.

Seven strokes with a VS blade, which is lighter and sharper than normal steel, and he is "breathless." True swordsmen spend hours training in the yard because they will one day have to face foes in battle that last all day. Joffrey has apparently received little to no actual training, whereas Robb and Jon have been training since they could walk and spent hours with Theon battling up and down staircases and elsewhere in Winterfell.

Robb would thoroughly spank Joffrey at sparring , and would cut him to ribbons in actual battle.

5 hours ago, Lady Anna said:

Following that up, maybe he tried to kill Bran to get back at Robb too (besides wanting to please daddy). It would be a blow to Robb and the whole family (Bran also ''defeated'' Tommen).

Doubtful. It was Robb who was bent after that talk about sparring with live steel, not Joffrey. And Joff has never shown anything but contempt for Tommen. To get Joffrey to commit a murder like this, he needs to believe it will benefit him in some way, and this is where Littlefinger comes in: to convince him that he must kill a Stark to prevent Ned from becoming Hand and either posing a danger to his mother or jeopardizing his succession somehow.

[the trees have eyes]

Swords are not designed for chopping wood, which is what a "thick tome" is.  Arthur Dayne or Jaime would not have fared much better.  Hacking apart a book tells us nothing about skill as a swordsman only about his character and temperament.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

17 hours ago, Kandrax said:

He is described as tall and strong for his age. 

Tall I remember, but strong? (Love-smitten Sansa doesn't count).