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A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory

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14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Doubtful. It was Robb who was bent after that talk about sparring with live steel, not Joffrey. And Joff has never shown anything but contempt for Tommen. To get Joffrey to commit a murder like this, he needs to believe it will benefit him in some way, and this is where Littlefinger comes in: to convince him that he must kill a Stark to prevent Ned from becoming Hand and either posing a danger to his mother or jeopardizing his succession somehow.

I was just adding a bit to you guys theories. It's not what I actually believe in. I think what's stated in the book is what really happened. Whether Littlefinger had something to do it, I don't know, but if Martin never brings it up again, that's fine by me. I believe Joffrey would have done it by his own accord, I don't see why not. Of course when Tyrion figures it out, it seems a bit abrupt, but i think Martin just wanted to close that loose end, as he did with others, in ASOS.

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3 hours ago, Lady Anna said:

I was just adding a bit to you guys theories. It's not what I actually believe in. I think what's stated in the book is what really happened. Whether Littlefinger had something to do it, I don't know, but if Martin never brings it up again, that's fine by me. I believe Joffrey would have done it by his own accord, I don't see why not. Of course when Tyrion figures it out, it seems a bit abrupt, but i think Martin just wanted to close that loose end, as he did with others, in ASOS.

Well, there are still two more books to come, and Martin did have this to say after Storm came out:

Quote

 I will tell you that ASOS will resolve the question of Bran and the dagger, and also that of Jon Arryn's killer. Some other questions will not be resolved... and hopefully I will give you a few new puzzles to worry at.

So above in this thread, some argue that the "new puzzles" are mysteries completely unrelated to the catspaw and the Arryn murder, but since these two events are actually connected, I see some wiggle room that we have not heard the last of the Bran assassination just yet.

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6 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Tall I remember, but strong? (Love-smitten Sansa doesn't count).

Arys Oakhearth Pov.

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On ‎1‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 1:27 PM, the trees have eyes said:

Do assassins disregard their targets and pick the next best thing?  Assassinations are personal and there is usually (read always) a specific objective in mind in removing an individual.  Removing a different individual fails to achieve that objective and will start a different and unintended course of events that may have nothing to do with the original objective.  So whatever motive you ascribe to the removal of Jon Snow - apparently to please Catelyn - is obviously negated by leaving Jon alive and well and killing her favourite child, her sweet Bran, who was not dying at this stage but had stabilised into a coma from which he might (and did) wake at any moment.

The catspaw is a killer , but he is not a professional assassin like the Faceless Man, at the time Jon was either missing or with Ghost or had left for the wall with Benen, then it would be moot and dangerous to try to kill him . We know that Bran is her favorite , but I doubt if anyone else in Westeros does . Bran condition was no longer considered to be critical by the maester Luwin  but in modern terms critical but stable condition or just serious  condition . The catspaw said ' Bran was dead already .'

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On 04/02/2018 at 5:00 AM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

The catspaw is a killer , but he is not a professional assassin like the Faceless Man, at the time Jon was either missing or with Ghost or had left for the wall with Benen, then it would be moot and dangerous to try to kill him . We know that Bran is her favorite , but I doubt if anyone else in Westeros does . Bran condition was no longer considered to be critical by the maester Luwin  but in modern terms critical but stable condition or just serious  condition . The catspaw said ' Bran was dead already .'

That still doesn't explain why an assassin sent to kill Jon in order to please Catelyn would ignore this and kill her favourite son instead.  If the assassin thought he was dead alerady then there was no need to touch him even if he wanted him dead.  I don't follow your reasoning at all.

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My money is on Littlefinger or maybe Varys.

LF took the dagger and gave it to te catspaw and told him to kill one of the younger stark children to enforce the Stark-Lannister hate, but thistime the whole stark family would have been enraged, maybe even theon, which leads to more chaos.

the crippled bran was an easy target so the catspaw chose to kill him

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34 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

My money is on Littlefinger or maybe Varys.

LF took the dagger and gave it to te catspaw and told him to kill one of the younger stark children to enforce the Stark-Lannister hate, but thistime the whole stark family would have been enraged, maybe even theon, which leads to more chaos.

So, Littlefinger stole (formerly his) dagger from Robert's armory, because the best way to pin a crime on the Lannisters would be with some artifact not tied to any of them, but to Robert Baratheon? That seems a little convoluted. Why not use (hell, make, if need be) some Lannister gadget, one described with words such as "gold" and "lion"?

Not to mention that the dagger gets into play only when the assassin gets caught/killed on the spot (otherwise the only thing they find is a kid with his throat slashed). How did Littlefinger arrange that, I wonder? Did he tell the thug to get caught? Or, maybe, just tipped Summer off?

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1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Not to mention that the dagger gets into play only when the assassin gets caught/killed on the spot (otherwise the only thing they find is a kid with his throat slashed). How did Littlefinger arrange that, I wonder? Did he tell the thug to get caught? Or, maybe, just tipped Summer off?

Yes! :lmao:

Seriously though I can't buy into the whole LF did it. There are too many things LF would have had to orchestrate & all for something to cause ruckus between the Lannisters & Starks? He should have thought of something much simpler, like, I don't know, maybe blaming the murder of a friend of Ned's on the Lannisters. He could have used someone in his ploy more competent than Joffrey too. Someone the Starks know & trust to lend credence to the accusation like maybe Lysa or.... Wait... He did do all of that! Successfully I might add, not bungled & unsuccessful like the catspaw. 

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2 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Not to mention that the dagger gets into play only when the assassin gets caught/killed on the spot (otherwise the only thing they find is a kid with his throat slashed). How did Littlefinger arrange that, I wonder? Did he tell the thug to get caught? Or, maybe, just tipped Summer off?

that is the point, the dagger wasn't to be found, it was a (poisoned) reward for the catspaw, cause it was stolen from the king so he could blame the catspaw for stealing and the one who knows too much would be taken out of the game.

1 hour ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

maybe blaming the murder of a friend of Ned's on the Lannisters.

Blaming Arryn's death on Lannisters -> Ned and Cat pissed

Killing Bran/ or annother young stark -> Robb, Jon, Sansa etc. pissed. After all Robb would became the acting lord of winterfell, he is the one who calls the banner's, not to mention the possible influence a pissed theon has had.

You see the difference, right

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10 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

that is the point, the dagger wasn't to be found, it was a (poisoned) reward for the catspaw, cause it was stolen from the king so he could blame the catspaw for stealing and the one who knows too much would be taken out of the game.

Blaming Arryn's death on Lannisters -> Ned and Cat pissed

Killing Bran/ or annother young stark -> Robb, Jon, Sansa etc. pissed. After all Robb would became the acting lord of winterfell, he is the one who calls the banner's, not to mention the possible influence a pissed theon has had.

You see the difference, right

Of course I see the difference. But do you suggest LF's plan was to start a war? I've never seen that suggested before. Most say LF's plan was to cause discord between the Starks & the Lannisters. Without the dagger being found there is no discord between the Lannisters & the Starks over the death or attempted death of Bran & you yourself say the dagger wasn't supposed to be found. 

Here's another thing: the catspaw was given some instruction from someone with up to date, inside knowledge of Winterfell. The fire was lit with the intention of pulling everyone to it, including Cat. LF would not have known about Bran's fall, let alone that Cat was spending every moment at Bran's side. The catspaw repeatedly told Cat she wasn't s'posed to be there. An odd thing to say if he had come up with the fire ploy on his own no? & He couldn't have had any direction from LF at that point because LF was not present in WF.

On a side note Theon actually had little to no influence pissed off or otherwise. Balon didn't give two shits what Theon had to say. He gave Theon a small mission with a small fleet. Theon disregarded those orders & took WF instead but clearly he had no influence on Balon & very little on the Ironborn. 

Edited by Lyanna<3Rhaegar
More info

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24 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Of course I see the difference. But do you suggest LF's plan was to start a war? I've never seen that suggested before. Most say LF's plan was to cause discord between the Starks & the Lannisters. Without the dagger being found there is no discord between the Lannisters & the Starks over the death or attempted death of Bran & you yourself say the dagger wasn't supposed to be found. 

Here's another thing: the catspaw was given some instruction from someone with up to date, inside knowledge of Winterfell. The fire was lit with the intention of pulling everyone to it, including Cat. LF would not have known about Bran's fall, let alone that Cat was spending every moment at Bran's side. The catspaw repeatedly told Cat she wasn't s'posed to be there. An odd thing to say if he had come up with the fire ploy on his own no? & He couldn't have had any direction from LF at that point because LF was not present in WF.

On a side note Theon actually had little to no influence pissed off or otherwise. Balon didn't give two shits what Theon had to say. He gave Theon a small mission with a small fleet. Theon disregarded those orders & took WF instead but clearly he had no influence on Balon & very little on the Ironborn. 

That right there should kill LF speculation. The person who contracted the assassin had to be a part of the king's party to know that Bran had fallen, but not know Catlynn well enough to know that Cat would stay by her child's side day and night. Cat obsesses about her children, even grown up Robb. Unless Robert sent the assassin, Jamie and Cersei are innocent. So there is no one else in the Kings party who could have sent the cats paw other than maybe the Hound, but that seems out of character for the Hound. Joffery is the only person who could have done it and have access to Roberts blade. 

LF sent the message via Lysa to bate the Starks into coming south to investigate the death of Jon Arryn. The dagger was just a hap chance occurrence for LF. 

Edit- If anything, Joffery used Illyn Payne as a go between or the Hound. I can't imagine Joffery talking to the piss smelling assassin him self or wanting to be seen with him. 

Joffery also likely didnt' expect him to fail and leave behind the dagger. As it's never brought up to him, he probably just figured he was clear either way and another dastardly deed done.

Edited by AlaskanSandman

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3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

LF would not have known about Bran's fall, let alone that Cat was spending every moment at Bran's side.

do you even read my posts?

 

 

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13 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

snip

 

3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

snip

 

3 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

snip

This is why LF influencing Joffrey way back in King's Landing is the only way this whole thing makes sense:

LF tells Joff that Ned becoming hand would be a terrible thing for Robert, the realm, his mother, House Lannister, and Joffrey personally, and that the only way to prevent this is if some major tragedy were to befall House Stark: such as the sudden death of one of the children. From there, Joffrey managed it all: the dagger, the catspaw and the victim.

In this way, LF is ultimately behind it even though he knows nothing about Brandon's fall or anything else that happens at Winterfell, Joffrey is responsible for the goofiness of the plan, and LF ratchets up the hostility between wolf and lion that was sparked by the letter to Catelyn because now the Lannister threat not only targets the Arryns, but House Stark directly.

If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey would have chosen another target, most likely Sansa, whom he may very well have been planning to murder later on the Trident in a last-ditch effort to send Ned back home.

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13 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

hat right there should kill LF speculation. The person who contracted the assassin had to be a part of the king's party to know that Bran had fallen, but not know Catlynn well enough to know that Cat would stay by her child's side day and night. Cat obsesses about her children, even grown up Robb. Unless Robert sent the assassin, Jamie and Cersei are innocent. So there is no one else in the Kings party who could have sent the cats paw other than maybe the Hound, but that seems out of character for the Hound. Joffery is the only person who could have done it and have access to Roberts blade. 

LF sent the message via Lysa to bate the Starks into coming south to investigate the death of Jon Arryn. The dagger was just a hap chance occurrence for LF. 

Edit- If anything, Joffery used Illyn Payne as a go between or the Hound. I can't imagine Joffery talking to the piss smelling assassin him self or wanting to be seen with him. 

Joffery also likely didnt' expect him to fail and leave behind the dagger. As it's never brought up to him, he probably just figured he was clear either way and another dastardly deed done

I agree totally. The dagger was never meant to be found. It was probably part of the reward for the catspaw. 

 

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This is why LF influencing Joffrey way back in King's Landing is the only way this whole thing makes sense:

LF tells Joff that Ned becoming hand would be a terrible thing for Robert, the realm, his mother, House Lannister, and Joffrey personally, and that the only way to prevent this is if some major tragedy were to befall House Stark: such as the sudden death of one of the children. From there, Joffrey managed it all: the dagger, the catspaw and the victim.

In this way, LF is ultimately behind it even though he knows nothing about Brandon's fall or anything else that happens at Winterfell, Joffrey is responsible for the goofiness of the plan, and LF ratchets up the hostility between wolf and lion that was sparked by the letter to Catelyn because now the Lannister threat not only targets the Arryns, but House Stark directly.

If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey would have chosen another target, most likely Sansa, whom he may very well have been planning to murder later on the Trident in a last-ditch effort to send Ned back home.

You & I have danced this dance & come to some what of a truce I think. You have managed to convince me things could have happened the way you suspect, & correct me if I'm wrong but you are under the assumption that the dagger was meant to be found even if the catspaw succeeded no? At any rate I think in order to believe LF influenced Joff one would have to believe the dagger was meant to be found other wise it accomplishes nothing in the way of adding to the Starks suspicions regarding the Lannisters. 

 

10 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

do you even read my posts?

 

 

Listen I have no interest in insulting each other or being condescending. I'm all up for a discussion but not if it includes remarks that clip one small part of my response & do not relate at all to what we are discussing. Clearly I read your post, quoted it, & responded though clearly not to your liking. If you think I have misunderstood something you said, explain. If you disagree with something I've said, discuss. If you are not interested in doing either of those things, that's your choice & is no skin off my back. 

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10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

 

This is why LF influencing Joffrey way back in King's Landing is the only way this whole thing makes sense:

LF tells Joff that Ned becoming hand would be a terrible thing for Robert, the realm, his mother, House Lannister, and Joffrey personally, and that the only way to prevent this is if some major tragedy were to befall House Stark: such as the sudden death of one of the children. From there, Joffrey managed it all: the dagger, the catspaw and the victim.

In this way, LF is ultimately behind it even though he knows nothing about Brandon's fall or anything else that happens at Winterfell, Joffrey is responsible for the goofiness of the plan, and LF ratchets up the hostility between wolf and lion that was sparked by the letter to Catelyn because now the Lannister threat not only targets the Arryns, but House Stark directly.

If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey would have chosen another target, most likely Sansa, whom he may very well have been planning to murder later on the Trident in a last-ditch effort to send Ned back home.

 

5 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I agree totally. The dagger was never meant to be found. It was probably part of the reward for the catspaw. 

 

You & I have danced this dance & come to some what of a truce I think. You have managed to convince me things could have happened the way you suspect, & correct me if I'm wrong but you are under the assumption that the dagger was meant to be found even if the catspaw succeeded no? At any rate I think in order to believe LF influenced Joff one would have to believe the dagger was meant to be found other wise it accomplishes nothing in the way of adding to the Starks suspicions regarding the Lannisters. 

 

Listen I have no interest in insulting each other or being condescending. I'm all up for a discussion but not if it includes remarks that clip one small part of my response & do not relate at all to what we are discussing. Clearly I read your post, quoted it, & responded though clearly not to your liking. If you think I have misunderstood something you said, explain. If you disagree with something I've said, discuss. If you are not interested in doing either of those things, that's your choice & is no skin off my back. 

I can totally see what Jon is saying too and with in the realms of LF's tricks as he used his own men to spread whispers and a singer with a harp to make the Tryells think putting Loras in the K.G. was their idea. Home boy is subtle. 

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1 minute ago, AlaskanSandman said:

 

I can totally see what Jon is saying too and with in the realms of LF's tricks as he used his own men to spread whispers and a singer with a harp to make the Tryells think putting Loras in the K.G. was their idea. Home boy is subtle. 

He is a trickster for sure & John makes a compelling argument several pages back in this thread. I'm not sold completely but I've been wrong before 

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1 minute ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

He is a trickster for sure & John makes a compelling argument several pages back in this thread. I'm not sold completely but I've been wrong before 

It does seem rather like Peter is genuinely pleasantly shocked to see the knife. Like he didn't expect it but instantly realized what happened. Im torn too. 

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1 hour ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Listen I have no interest in insulting each other or being condescending. I'm all up for a discussion but not if it includes remarks that clip one small part of my response & do not relate at all to what we are discussing. Clearly I read your post, quoted it, & responded though clearly not to your liking. If you think I have misunderstood something you said, explain. If you disagree with something I've said, discuss. If you are not interested in doing either of those things, that's your choice & is no skin off my back. 

I am also interested in discussing, but a discussion doesn't work if you dont read my posts.

You said LF had to know about brans fall, while i said from the beginning that he would have send the cs to kill one of the younger starks, to piss of robb etc. the CS could have chosen between arya rickon and bran, but because bran was crippled he was an easy target.

for the rest of your post.:

15 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

But do you suggest LF's plan was to start a war?

Yes, war is chaos and chaos is a ladder (to make it easy).

in a war, many people die and fall in misstrust, so new people can rise, littlefiger would never got harrenhal or the riverlands or the vale/lysa if there were no war where he can prove himself as good as he could in our story.

he builded the Lannister-tyrell alliance, which wouldn't be needed if the lannisters had no two/three front war.

15 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Without the dagger being found there is no discord between the Lannisters & the Starks over the death or attempted death of Bran & you yourself say the dagger wasn't supposed to be found. 

With the mistrust through the Lysa-latter and the coincidence that shortly after the lannisters leave a stark child dies, especially catelyn would directly suspect the lannisters, and Ned as well, as LF said, he is easy to read and easy to play.

15 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

The catspaw repeatedly told Cat she wasn't s'posed to be there.

this leads to Littlefinger as well, with his obsession for Catelyn he would have told the CS that she should not be killed.

15 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

On a side note Theon actually had little to no influence pissed off or otherwise. Balon didn't give two shits what Theon had to say. He gave Theon a small mission with a small fleet. Theon disregarded those orders & took WF instead but clearly he had no influence on Balon & very little on the Ironborn. 

theon is a wild card there, i doubt LF would have known how Balon would react to him, but tht he might return home was also predictable since Robb is not Ned (so he doesn't know so much about balon and just sees his friend theon asking to see his father) and allies are needed in wars, with theon back, Balon has no reason to stay calm, especially when half of the realm is in war with each other.

which side he attacks is almost irrelevant.

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