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A Who Sent the Catspaw Theory


Chrissie

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46 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

 

Indeed they can.  Now square your contention that they are wrong with GRRM saying he would resolve the mystery of the dagger in ASOS with absolutley no other instigator being mentioned other than Joffrey.  You can't.

I can't and won't speak for another man, but you are trying to vaguely quote a message from before multiple books ago. I could contend that Mance's admission of traveling to winterfell with a bag of silver was that reveal. The point is, the case isn't closed.

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You only get yourself into this twisted pretzel of a knot because you don't want to accept the explanation given in story so you then have to reject the out of text nail in the coffin to your arguments as well.  I still find it hard to see why you think this is the central mystery of the entire series and not a major but resolved matter from AGOT.

The characters in the story don't seem to accept the explanation, why should I, it doesn't make sense. 

You can say what you will about the importance of who sent the assassin. But I'm not going to simply forget it. 

 

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"This?" Littlefinger flipped the knife casually end over end. "A sweet piece of steel, but it cuts two ways, my lord. The Imp will no doubt swear the blade was lost or stolen while he was at Winterfell, and with his hireling dead, who is there to give him the lie?" He tossed the knife lightly to Ned. "My counsel is to drop that in the river and forget that it was ever forged."
Ned regarded him coldly. "Lord Baelish, I am a Stark of Winterfell. My son lies crippled, perhaps dying. He would be dead, and Catelyn with him, but for a wolf pup we found in the snow. If you truly believe I could forget that, you are as big a fool now as when you took up sword against my brother."

 

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On 11/20/2017 at 4:12 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Like the assassin says "s'posed", which he says twice but is only used again once in the series:

 
 I don't think it's a coincidence that this is the only other time it's used.
 
That doesn't mean I think Gendry is the assassin though, just that there is a connection in the text.
 
Make of it what you want:
 
It's low born speech like is found in Kings Landing or the Night's Watch.
 
Climbing from tree to tree
 
Master Mott is the only Westerosi we've met who knows how to re-forge Valyrian Steel...
 
The queen wants him dead...
 
King's Bastard being discussed...
 
Hiding from authority...
 
No One (sees)
 
Wrong assumptions about identity...

Nice find with the Gendry connection. The more I thought about the Theon parallels I mentioned earlier, the more I suspected there is a common factor of "bastard" in the attempt on Bran's life and the maiming of Theon. (This is largely literary analysis so skip this post entirely if you don't like close readings of the text that might turn up evidence.)

If Joffrey was the mastermind behind the catspaw, then we have a bastard as would-be murderer in that case. In Theon's case, we have Ramsay Snow as the torturer who takes down the Prince of Winterfell.

But the cases differ in that Catelyn is the person who is actually injured by the catspaw, while Theon is successfully targeted by Ramsay. Catelyn and Theon don't seem much alike to me.

Aha! Stay with me, though.

Lady Hornwood IS ALSO targeted by Ramsay, and she ends up with wounds to her hands that are somewhat self-inflicted, sort of like Catelyn's hands being cut to the bone by the catspaw's dagger as she grabs the blade to prevent him from using the knife on Bran.

Ramsay targets Lady Hornwood because he wants her land and castle and title.

Hmm. A desire for land and titles doesn't sound like a motive at all related to the attempt on Bran, especially if Joffrey was behind it. He has plenty of land and titles.

But Littlefinger does not have good land and titles. Would he have a motive to kill Bran? Bran is Robb's heir, of course. If Littlefinger wanted Winterfell, why wouldn't he try to kill Robb?

Because he doesn't want Winterfell, he wants Harrenhal. A number of people in the forum have commented that Catelyn's children are the likely heirs to Winterfell through Catelyn's mother, Minisa Whent. Since Robb would be Lord of Winterfell, Bran is a likely candidate to be heir to Harrenhal. Although Littlefinger may not have seen Sansa in the flesh before the Hand's Tourney, he surely had spies to tell him that she looked like a young Catelyn. He may have pictured an easier path to his goal with Sansa as the heir to Harrenhal than with Bran still in the picture. Even if Sansa married Joffrey, Littlefinger may have guessed that Joffrey's reign would not last long. Sansa would soon be a young widow and the Lannisters would need to send her somewhere so Tommen could marry a virgin bride and get on with empire building. That would be one of several scenarios that might work to Littlefinger's advantage.

In addition to the wounds on Catelyn's hands, the catspaw pulls out a handful of her hair. There is an important pun on "hair" and "heir," and we know that Catelyn's last conscious words are, "Don't cut my hair; Ned loves my hair." This may show her unconscious understanding that people are targeting her heirs, although she doesn't connect it to Harrenhal.

Littlefinger's archenemy a generation earlier was named Brandon Stark.

Littlefinger claims to have bedded Catelyn. She says she was a virgin when she married Ned, but maybe it doesn't matter what the truth is. For the purposes of literary symbolism, Littlefinger sees Catelyn as his "first wife," much like Lady Hornwood was Ramsay Snow's first wife.

Like the catspaw, Ramsay Snow also commits a crime near Winterfell where he fails to murder Bran Stark (and instead murders the miller's sons - sort of a symbolic self-inflicted wound, since he is also a nominal miller's son until his mother confronts Roose). Ramsay and Roose know that he is not secure as the Lord of Winterfell unless they can find and kill the real Bran and Rickon Stark.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Revealing Littlefinger as the inspiration for the catspaw does not rely on the dagger in any way. It can come out in any number of ways, none of which will be "out of the blue" if you hold to your contention that Martin is in fact a skilled writer and knows what he is doing.

As I thought about the dragonbone handle on the dagger, I decided this might also point to Littlefinger as the motivator behind the catspaw. 

I suspect that Littlefinger is a hidden Targ or, perhaps, a Velaryon descendant. In his role as Master of Coin, people talk about his magical ability to rub dragons together to make more dragons. Of course, on the surface, this refers to his business acumen in earning gold coins. I still have a suspicion that he obtained real dragon eggs from Penny and Groat. I admit, it's hard to imagine that dragon eggs would both hatch and grow large enough to be factors in the last two books of ASOIAF in the time since Littlefinger contacted Penny and Groat to perform at Joffrey's wedding feast. It may be more likely that Littlefinger is the "dragon" who has hatched and grown over the years while he nursed his grudges against the highborn houses that refused to acknowledge him as a peer.

His lack of silver blonde Targ hair may be one of the twists GRRM has in store for us: we have bought into Ned Stark's (and Jon Arryn and Jon Connington's) certainty that hair color is scientific proof of paternity. In the real world, we know that recessive and dominant genes can recombine in unexpected ways. Why have we become convinced that we can spot a ASOIAF person's heritage solely through hair color? The author has already told us that "dragonseeds" who don't look like Targs and who have non-Targ mothers could become dragon riders. I think this early and central "canon" belief is one of the ways GRRM might surprise us.

Of course, if @LiveFirstDieLater's observation is correct about a bastard connection to the catspaw, does that mean Littlefinger is also a bastard? This could be true - we have only vague, third-hand accounts of his family line. He has come up with a sigil (the mockingbird) that differ's from his father's sigil (the head of the Titan of Braavos), and he does not seem particularly attached to his family's colors. Maybe Hoster Tully knew his real story; maybe not. I would compare him to Hugh of the Vale, whose origin seems similarly vague, but who secured a prestigious job close to Jon Arryn.

As I thought about the Ramsay / Theon and Catspaw / Bran parallels suggested by the earlier post and some of these new ideas, I thought of an additional possible parallel arc: Jaqen / Arya at Harrenhal. Jaqen is Arya's catspaw until the Weasel Soup incident plays out. At the close of that scene, Jaqen tells Arya that she has blood on her hands. He is telling her that she is responsible for the deaths of the guards, but is there a second layer of meaning? Is Arya becoming "Catelyn" at that point, with bloody hands from a somewhat self-inflicted wound to her moral compass? While Jaqen talks to Arya, Biter is in the background eating the fingers of one of the dead guards. (Recall also that Theon tells Lady Dustin that he asked Ramsay to cut off his fingers because he didn't need so many - another "self-inflicted" wound.)

The Jaqen link in the chain mail takes us in another direction, perhaps, if it is parallel to Littlefinger. There has been discussion elsewhere in the forum comparing the Bank of Braavos to the House of Black and White, so a Jaqen / Littlefinger comparison might be apt on that level. If Littlefinger sent the catspaw (or manipulated Joffrey into doing it), however, there is a further parallel in Jaqen giving Arya the iron coin and setting her on a path to become a killer. Both men manipulating others to become assassins. Ramsay corrupts Theon, Jaqen corrupts Arya and Littlefinger corrupts Joffrey and then Sansa.

And Ramsay marries fArya and Theon kidnaps fArya so (in a literary, symbolic sense) the circles close.

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18 minutes ago, Seams said:

Nice find with the Gendry connection. The more I thought about the Theon parallels I mentioned earlier, the more I suspected there is a common factor of "bastard" in the attempt on Bran's life and the maiming of Theon. (This is largely literary analysis so skip this post entirely if you don't like close readings of the text that might turn up evidence.)

... 

I suspect that Littlefinger is a hidden Targ or, perhaps, a Velaryon descendant.@LiveFirstDieLater

Wait wait wait...

and not to take away from your analysis, which I enjoyed...

But what about Mance...

He's a bastard too, and a king. Supposedly son of a brother of the night's watch, and king-beyond-the-wall. Red silk from Ashai in his black cloak. 

But more importantly the connection derived from the way the assassin spoke. He had blonde hair and pale eyes. This is ambiguous enough, but hardly conclusive of anything. Blonde hair associated with Lannisters and pale eyes with the North. But Mance returned to beyond the wall (where he apperantly started amassing an army and digging in the frostfangs, was there something in the Winterfell library?) with a blonde haired pale eyed Val (and a queen for himself).

Also worth noting, Gendry was on his way to the Wall, with a recruiter from the Night's Watch. 

Again, I don't claim to have proof, but I really don't think the case is closed on this one. Whatever the plans may have been before Storm of Swords.

I would also contend that it is possible Mance is Aemon's bastard son. Just saying.

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2 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Wait wait wait...

and not to take away from your analysis, which I enjoyed...

But what about Mance...

He's a bastard too, and a king. Supposedly son of a brother of the night's watch, and king-beyond-the-wall. Red silk from Ashai in his black cloak. 

But more importantly the connection derived from the way the assassin spoke. He had flaxen hair and pale eyes. This is ambiguous enough, but hardly conclusive of anything.

However, Gendry was on his way to the Wall, with a recruiter from the Night's Watch. 

Again, I don't claim to have proof, but I really don't think the case is closed on this one. Whatever the plans may have been before Storm of Swords.

I am certain there is a Littlefinger / Mance parallel - the name Baelish and Bael the Bard and Abel are all part of one of GRRM's chains of similar arcs. (Not to mention Baelor the Blessed.) I don't know that Mance was behind the attempt on Bran, but he does seem to be behind the mysterious deaths at Winterfell during the snowstorm, and probably behind Theon's escape with fArya.

Gendry may also be linked. (That's why I like chain mail as a metaphor for the fabric of GRRM's plot - everything is linked.) Gendry kills Biter, who was part of the Weasel Soup murders at Harrenhal. And he finds himself thrown together with Lady Stoneheart, to some extent, who was part of the Bran assassination scene. As GRRM has promised, the disparate strands of the plot are starting to come together as the last books draw us toward a conclusion.

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11 minutes ago, Seams said:

I am certain there is a Littlefinger / Mance parallel - the name Baelish and Bael the Bard and Abel are all part of one of GRRM's chains of similar arcs. (Not to mention Baelor the Blessed.) I don't know that Mance was behind the attempt on Bran, but he does seem to be behind the mysterious deaths at Winterfell during the snowstorm, and probably behind Theon's escape with fArya.

Gendry may also be linked. (That's why I like chain mail as a metaphor for the fabric of GRRM's plot - everything is linked.) Gendry kills Biter, who was part of the Weasel Soup murders at Harrenhal. And he finds himself thrown together with Lady Stoneheart, to some extent, who was part of the Bran assassination scene. As GRRM has promised, the disparate strands of the plot are starting to come together as the last books draw us toward a conclusion.

The fabric is a beautiful thing... 

sorry I was busy editing that last post, probably done for the night. But a pleasure as always

also, this one's for you, a silly little tangent but... just before his fall, Bran tries to get his un-named(summer) wolf to play fetch with a stick unsuccessfully, Arya got an unsuccessful stick scolding from Yoren just before this scene.

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23 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

also, this one's for you, a silly little tangent but... just before his fall, Bran tries to get his un-named(summer) wolf to play fetch with a stick unsuccessfully, Arya got an unsuccessful stick scolding from Yoren just before this scene.

Nice one! (Was the scolding from Yoren, though, or Weese?)

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4 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

 

Indeed they can.  Now square your contention that they are wrong with GRRM saying he would resolve the mystery of the dagger in ASOS with absolutley no other instigator being mentioned other than Joffrey.  You can't.

You only get yourself into this twisted pretzel of a knot because you don't want to accept the explanation given in story so you then have to reject the out of text nail in the coffin to your arguments as well.  I still find it hard to see why you think this is the central mystery of the entire series and not a major but resolved matter from AGOT.

Well the most obvious is that he changed his mind on how he wanted to present the information. It's a fan e-mail not the dead sea scrolls.

Same question I put to Mormont regarding the e-mails. They say that it can be deduced from the first two books. What evidence is there for Joffrey from the 1st two books?

You and others keep saying that he's the only one implicated in ASoS. That's untrue. Robert certainly is and Cersei possibly is as well.

edit: I just realized that Robert is first implicated in ACoK and then again in ASoS. As far as I know Joffrey isn't implicated in the first two books. 

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I'm noticing a common theme in this debate. I present my argument based on the text. Then I get accused of not arguing from the text while my actual post regarding the text is not debated at all. Instead the immediate comeback is to run back to the e-mails. This is the third time it's happened.and it's very frustrating. Either it's tacit agreement and there is no counter argument and they agree that Tyrion's reasoning is rubbish and that Jaime and Cersei's conversation is suspect at best. Or they think it's too ridiculous. Meaning I haven't explained myself well enough. So please if you don't understand any part of my argument or disagree with it challenge me on it so I can have the opportunity to explain myself better.

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6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

It's kind of sad when people convince themselves that the story has no more surprises, no more truths to be revealed about the past and all plotlines going forward will progress along their utterly predictable paths to the foregone conclusion that they see from a distance of two full novels left to write. I mean, it's not like Martin is known for introducing paradigm-shifting plot twists in the blink of an eye; what bad writing that would be.

 

I think it's a case of people hearing the same thing over and over again and from each other making it truth in their eyes. That's why they get angry when they hear a different opinion that challenges the orthodoxy. It's not just the individual being proven wrong in their beliefs it's their community that is being challenged which can often provoke a stronger reaction. It happens to all of us and it happens all the time. There's a feeling of security that comes from a group knowledge.

That's my pseudo-psychological-sociological view anyway.

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6 hours ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I'm noticing a common theme in this debate. I present my argument based on the text. Then I get accused of not arguing from the text while my actual post regarding the text is not debated at all. Instead the immediate comeback is to run back to the e-mails. This is the third time it's happened.and it's very frustrating. Either it's tacit agreement and there is no counter argument and they agree that Tyrion's reasoning is rubbish and that Jaime and Cersei's conversation is suspect at best. Or they think it's too ridiculous. Meaning I haven't explained myself well enough. So please if you don't understand any part of my argument or disagree with it challenge me on it so I can have the opportunity to explain myself better.

I know I wasn't one of the people debating with you but I'll give a shot at an answer here because this happens to me sometimes & it is very frustrating. 

I guess I disagree that Tyrion's reasoning is rubbish. He tries to work it out backwards. He knows LF told Cat the dagger was his won in the tourny. He obviously also knows it isn't his & that he doesn't bet against Jaime. He finds out it is Roberts won from LF at the tourney. He then starts deducing who could have/would have 1. Taken the dagger 2. Hired someone incapable to kill Bran. He comes to the same conclusion I did. He strongly suspects his siblings had something to do with Bran's "fall" but also knows the whole plot was too messy & not well thought out to be either sibling. He reaches the conclusion it is probably Joffrey before his name day & concludes he was right because of Joff's reaction to their conversation on his name day. It was the same conclusion I came to so I don't feel his reasoning was faulty. 

We later then get confirmation that 1. It wasn't Cersei or Jaime and 2. Jaime believes it to be Joffrey as well. Maybe Jaime's reasoning wasn't great but I honestly don't see alot of fault in it. 

I apologize if I didn't hit on your specific points as I am just jumping in the conversation. In the end Joffrey is an acceptable answer to me because he is the only one with the means, motive, & immaturity needed to plan a murder this sloppily. 

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46 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I know I wasn't one of the people debating with you but I'll give a shot at an answer here because this happens to me sometimes & it is very frustrating. 

I guess I disagree that Tyrion's reasoning is rubbish. He tries to work it out backwards. He knows LF told Cat the dagger was his won in the tourny. He obviously also knows it isn't his & that he doesn't bet against Jaime. He finds out it is Roberts won from LF at the tourney. He then starts deducing who could have/would have 1. Taken the dagger 2. Hired someone incapable to kill Bran. He comes to the same conclusion I did. He strongly suspects his siblings had something to do with Bran's "fall" but also knows the whole plot was too messy & not well thought out to be either sibling. He reaches the conclusion it is probably Joffrey before his name day & concludes he was right because of Joff's reaction to their conversation on his name day. It was the same conclusion I came to so I don't feel his reasoning was faulty. 

We later then get confirmation that 1. It wasn't Cersei or Jaime and 2. Jaime believes it to be Joffrey as well. Maybe Jaime's reasoning wasn't great but I honestly don't see alot of fault in it. 

I apologize if I didn't hit on your specific points as I am just jumping in the conversation. In the end Joffrey is an acceptable answer to me because he is the only one with the means, motive, & immaturity needed to plan a murder this sloppily. 

Thanks for the response and welcome to the party jump right in.

I'll just mention the most important red flags in Tyrion's reasoning.

We start with a false premise of Joffrey not knowing Valyrian steel. As LiveFirstDieLater pointed out Joffrey saw Ned being executed with Ice a Valyrian steel blade. He should be at least slightly familiar with it. It's often described as looking different and other characters notice Valyrian blades at first look. Yet Tyrion seems to think Joffrey shouldn't know Valyrian steel for some reason. Tyrion convinces himself that on this alone and then constructs his case upon it. 

Tyrion misremembers the conversation with the Hound. This is by far the biggest. It could be brushed aside by calling it author error. But I really don't think it is in this instance.To me it seems very intentional. Tyrion remembers Joffrey saying "send a dog to kill a wolf".What he actually says is send a dog to kill a dog. Send Sandor to kill Summer. Joffrey actually had no interest in Bran he just wanted the wolf to shut up. It's Sandor who said it would be a mercy to kill Bran, Joffrey disagrees.

Tyrion then rejects his own premise. Even Tyrion doesn't think Joffrey is stupid enough to use a Valyrian dagger that could easily be traced. If we're to trust Tyrion should we not trust him on this point.

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I am no stranger to valyrian steel. but he had been hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick littlefinger's knife

For me this reasoning is so bad that it seems as if Martin is intentionally trying to to show us that Tyrion is wrong.

You raise an interesting point that hasn't been discussed too much, by me anyway. Which is how we read Joffrey's reaction which sparks Tyrion's suspicion.

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Tyrion was staring at his nephew with his mismatched eyes. "Perhaps a knife, sire. To match your sword. A dagger of the same fine Valyrian steel . . . with a dragonbone hilt, say?"

Joff gave him a sharp look. "You . . . yes, a dagger to match my sword, good." He nodded. "A . . . a gold hilt with rubies in it. Dragonbone is too plain."

"As you wish, Your Grace." Tyrion drank another cup of wine. He might have been all alone in his solar for all the attention he paid Sansa. But when the time came to leave for the wedding, he took her by the hand.

I can definitely see your point of view on this. However, put yourself in Joffrey's shoes. He's just smashed up Tyrion's present and demanded a new one. Tyrion is described as shaking with rage by Sansa, if she can see it Joff can too. Tyrion's come back is to offer him a new dagger. Imagine you are intentionally provoking, you want an argument, a fight but all you get is an offer of a new wedding present. Wouldn't you be shocked? Maybe give him a sharp look and stumble over your words a little in surprise. I think it's fair to say that the scene can be read two ways. 

Jaime's motive is fine. It's how or more why he gets there that troubles me. Jaime has been feeling guilty about not being able to be a father to Joffrey. These are ASoS quotes of him thinking about being a father to Joffrey.

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Why shouldn't I marry Cersei openly and share her bed every night? The dragons always married their sisters. Septons, lords, and smallfolk had turned a blind eye to the Targaryens for hundreds of years, let them do the same for House Lannister. It would play havoc with Joffrey's claim to the crown, to be sure, but in the end it had been swords that had won the Iron Throne for Robert, and swords could keep Joffrey there as well, regardless of whose seed he was. We could marry him to Myrcella, once we've sent Sansa Stark back to her mother.

 

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Joffrey was there as well, the son they'd made together, and behind them a dozen more dark shapes with golden hair.

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Jaime sat silent through it all, letting the words wash over him, a horn of ale forgotten in his one good hand. Joffrey. My blood. My firstborn. My son.

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I am sick of being careful. The Targaryens wed brother to sister, why shouldn't we do the same? Marry me, Cersei. Stand up before the realm and say it's me you want. We'll have our own wedding feast, and make another son in place of Joffrey.

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He is my seed. He's never called me Father. No more than Joffrey ever did. You warned me a thousand times never to show any undue interest in them.

I think it's safe to say that a theme of Jaime in ASoS is thinking about being a real family and a real father especially to Joffrey and then regretting it when Joffrey dies. So it's natural that his motive for Joffrey reflects just that. It's not a keen insight, it's not even about Joffrey, it's about Jaime's regrets.

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Cersei frowned. "Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself."

"A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father." He had an uncomfortable thought. "Tyrion almost died because of this bloody dagger. If he knew the whole thing was Joffrey's work, that might be why . . ."

 

Then we have the Cersei lie or the Martin mistake in that chapter. Where she tells Jaime that she had a conversation with Tyrion about the dagger which as far as we know never took place. It seems as though this is author error or it's intentional. If it's intentional then Cersei is lying and trying to pin the blame on Robert. When that fails she mentions Myrcella which makes Jaime think of the children which steers him to Joffrey. He starts the conversation thinking she did it and through her manipulation he concludes that it's Joffrey. It could of course be another author error there's no way to prove it either way or it could have happened off screen. It's just that Tyrion never thinks about this conversation when he's piecing things together or after or ever. 

There's just too many mistakes too much faulty reasoning. If you discount the evidence that is wrong or fallacious we really are left with nothing that implicates Joffrey.  

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43 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

We start with a false premise of Joffrey not knowing Valyrian steel. As LiveFirstDieLater pointed out Joffrey saw Ned being executed with Ice a Valyrian steel blade. He should be at least slightly familiar with it. It's often described as looking different and other characters notice Valyrian blades at first look. Yet Tyrion seems to think Joffrey shouldn't know Valyrian steel for some reason. Tyrion convinces himself that on this alone and then constructs his case upon it. 

 

 

43 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

For me this reasoning is so bad that it seems as if Martin is intentionally trying to to show us that Tyrion is wrong.

I agree Joffrey would be slightly familiar with it after having seen Ned be executed with a VS sword but to be fair that happened after the attempt on Bran's life so both could be true. Joff could have been unfamiliar enough with VS before Ned's execution to have been "foolish" enough to pick LF's knife & by his name day, after Ned's execution felt like he was familiar enough with it to boast that he is no stranger to VS - although I wouldn't necessarily say that qualifies him as familiar with it, given Joff's tendency to boast he may have. 

 

43 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Tyrion misremembers the conversation with the Hound. This is by far the biggest. It could be brushed aside by calling it author error. But I really don't think it is in this instance.To me it seems very intentional. Tyrion remembers Joffrey saying "send a dog to kill a wolf".What he actually says is send a dog to kill a dog. Send Sandor to kill Summer. Joffrey actually had no interest in Bran he just wanted the wolf to shut up. It's Sandor who said it would be a mercy to kill Bran, Joffrey disagrees

This is odd & like you said possibly an author error but if we operate under the assumption that it isn't an error or George's part & therefore is an error on Tyrion's part it definitely takes from Tyrion's deduction that it was Joffrey. I don't recall Joffrey disagreeing with Sandor about killing Bran being a mercy but it has been a while since I've read it. What exactly does Joff say? I only remember thinking Joff was very uninterested & could have cared less what was going on with Bran which does give credit to the theory that it wasn't Joff but I don't think that alone is enough to say for sure it wasn't Joff. 

 

43 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I can definitely see your point of view on this. However, put yourself in Joffrey's shoes. He's just smashed up Tyrion's present and demanded a new one. Tyrion is described as shaking with rage by Sansa, if she can see it Joff can too. Tyrion's come back is to offer him a new dagger. Imagine you are intentionally provoking, you want an argument, a fight but all you get is an offer of a new wedding present. Wouldn't you be shocked? Maybe give him a sharp look and stumble over your words a little in surprise. I think it's fair to say that the scene can be read two ways. 

Agreed. I didn't read it that way but I think it's absolutely fair to say it could be read that way & it makes sense. 

 

43 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

Jaime's motive is fine. It's how or more why he gets there that troubles me. Jaime has been feeling guilty about not being able to be a father to Joffrey. These are ASoS quotes of him thinking about being a father to Joffrey.

I get your point & Jaime absolutely let Cersei "help" him come to the conclusion it was Joffrey. I'll have to reread that part but I thought she was mentioning Myrcella in jest - which doesn't take from the fact that this is how Jaime reaches his conclusion it only means Cersei wasn't intentionally manipulating Jaime into believing it was Joff or one of the children. 

 

43 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:
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Then we have the Cersei lie or the Martin mistake in that chapter. Where she tells Jaime that she had a conversation with Tyrion about the dagger which as far as we know never took place. It seems as though this is author error or it's intentional. If it's intentional then Cersei is lying and trying to pin the blame on Robert. When that fails she mentions Myrcella which makes Jaime think of the children which steers him to Joffrey. He starts the conversation thinking she did it and through her manipulation he concludes that it's Joffrey. It could of course be another author error there's no way to prove it either way or it could have happened off screen. It's just that Tyrion never thinks about this conversation when he's piecing things together or after or ever

.

If I understand you correctly here you are saying Cersei is trying to blame it on Robert & when that didn't work started blaming the children in an effort to point the blame away from her. My issue with this is I can't see Cersei blaming something she did on one of her children. 

That being said I would feel much more confident saying that if it hadn't been Jaime she was talking to. Had it been anyone else I would say for certain she would not implicate one of her children for fear of retribution on said child but she knows Jaime isn't going to say anything to anyone so it's possible. 

So who do you think did it? Cersei? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Hmmmm let me imagine...

Mance Rayder, who is now in Winterfell using cats paws to murder people as Abel (Bael), is playing Jon for a fool with the Pink Letter and as it turns out has been more involved than previously suspected from the very beginning, and, like you know, it turned out he was in Winterfell for Robert's visit but we only learned that later... what was the point of that visit anyway? Just so Mance could recognize Jon later, and get a look at Robert? Nothing to do with starting a war in the south, sowing decention, and gathering information?

but that's just a possibility off the top of my head... 

I agree that this is a definite possibility.  I've discussed this in a previous thread but I think it bears repeating here.  I think the valyrian steel dagger with the dragon bone hilt is GRRM's "dragon's tooth".

In the Greek tale of Cadmus, Cadmus slays a dragon that was held sacred to the God, Ares.  Athena instructed Cadmus to take the dragon's teeth and sow them into the ground.  Out of this rose an army of soldiers.  A jewel or stone was then thrown in amongst the army which caused the army to fight amongst itself resulting in five survivors.  Cadmus used these five survivors to build the city of Thebes.  This tale also led to an expression, "sowing the dragon's teeth" to mean spreading discord or strife. 

When the Valyrian steel dragon is brought down to King's Landing, Littlefinger seizes the opportunity to use the Valyrian dagger (the dragon's tooth) to spread discord between House Lannister and House Stark, by claiming he lost the dagger to Tyrion.  Out of this discord, Littlefinger basically creates two armies, armies led by Stark and Lannister which then fight among themselves.  Ultimately Littlefinger plays both sides, betrays Eddard and strengthens his position within Westeros.  A discord brought about by a valyrian dagger.

Now, what if Littelfinger was not the first plotter to attempt to use this dagger to sow discord and pit two sides against each other in order to strengthen his position?

In ASOS we learn that Mance Rayder travelled to Winterfell with a bag silver where he fell in amongst King Robert's royal train, along with other freeriders.

Quote

"I wanted to see this Robert with my own eyes, king to king, and get the measure of your uncle Benjen as well.  He was First Ranger by then, and the bane of all my people..."

"The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone.  I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near the Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse.  All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort.  A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company.  Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute gained me easy acceptance."

We know that the catspaw assassin, may have also been a freerider that fell in amongst the King's procession, because he was no man of Winterfell:

Quote

"Who was he?" Catelyn asked them.

"No one knows his name," Hallis Mollen told her.  "He was no man of Winterfell, m'lady, but some says they seen him here and about the castle these past few weeks."

"One of the king's men, then," she said, "or one of the Lannisters'.  He could have waited behind when the others left."

"Maybe," Hal said.  "With all these strangers filling up Winterfell of late, there's no way of saying who he belonged to."...

Quote

"We found where he'd been sleeping," Robb put in.  "He had ninety silver stags in a leather bag buried beneath the straw."

"It's good to know my son's life was not sold cheaply," Catelyn said bitterly.

Now the question remains why would you give a catspaw ninety silver stags to kill a boy, and then arm him with a valyrian steel dagger which is probably worth a huge amount more than the bribe?  In fact why arm him with a valyrian steel dagger at all when a regular dagger would do?  After all you're just trying to kill a boy in a coma where the plan is to lure everyone else out of the room.

And a better question is why would Joffrey give up a valyrian steel dagger to kill Bran?  After all, that Valyrian steel dagger may have been the only Valyrian steel that either the Baratheons or Lannisters had in their possession.  When Tyrion hears Joffrey say that he is no stranger to Valyrian steel, Tyrion comes to the conclusion that Joffrey must have been referring to that dagger.  It seems that there was not a stash of other Valyrian steel that Joffrey could have been referring to.

So if Joffrey values Valyrian steel so much, (as it appears by his joy at receiving 'Widow's Wail')  why would he sacrifice his only Valyrian steel blade to put Bran out of his misery?  Why not simply use a regular dagger that wouldn't be so dear to him?

The only conclusion that I can come up with is that someone wanted to use the Valyrian steel blade to cast blame on the owner (Just like Littelfinger does, sowing the dragon's tooth).  And if Mance at some point had access to Robert's wheelhouse, and had to guess which blade belonged to the King, he would probably have chosen the only dagger that was Valyrian steel, since that would be the most valuable dagger in King's wheelhouse.  But unbeknownst to Mance, no one associates the dagger with Robert, because he only used one knife:

Quote

"The steel was sufficient for two blades, not three.  If you have need of a dagger, take one from the armory.  Robert left a hundred when he died.  Gerion gave him a gilded dagger with an ivory grip and a sapphire pommel for a wedding gift, and half the envoys who came to court tried to curry favor by presenting his Grace with jewel encrusted knives and silver inlay swords."...

"The only blade he ever used was the hunting knife he had from Jon Arryn, when he was a boy."  Lord Twyin waved a hand, dismissing King Robert and all his knives.

So if Mance stole the Valyrian dagger wrongly assuming it to be Robert's, what does he gain?  Well its' quite simple.  He is planning on bringing his Free Folk army through the Wall, and he probably has a pretty good idea that the Night's Watch doesn't have the manpower to stop him.  However, House Stark is always present to greatly supplement the Night's Watch's strength.

Quote

"Ben writes that the strength of the Night's Watch is down below a thousand.  It's not only desertions.  They are losing men on rangings as well."

"Is it the Wildlings?" she asked. 

"Who else?  Ned lifted Ice, looked down the cool steel length of it.  "And it will only grow worse.  The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this King-beyond-the-Wall for good and all."

So if Mance can cause discord between the South and the North, then this will force Stark to divert his army to the south, leaving him with one less enemy to contend with when he makes his march towards the Wall.  Once again, using the Valyrian steel, the "dragon's tooth" to sow discord and create two armies to battle themselves which further helps the person who sows the discord.

Now, the question remains, would Mance kill a young, crippled boy in a coma to further his goals?  If Mance shares the same Wildling morality that his sister-in law, Val, has towards afflicted children then the answer may very well be yes.  After all for Wildlings, killing a crippled child might very well be considered a "mercy".

Quote

"The grey death is what we call it."

"It is not always mortal I children."

"North of the Wall it is.  Hemlock is a sure cure, but a pillow or a blade will work as well.  If I had given birth to that poor child, I would have given her the gift of mercy long ago."

And when Catelyn encounters the catspaw assassin, how does the catspaw justifiy his actions?

Quote

Catelyn looked at the knife, then at Bran.  "No," she said.  The word struck in her throat, the merest whisper. 

He must have heard her.  "It's a mercy," he said.  "He's dead already."

 

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I didn't want to join this thread, but I came across a passage in AGOT that I thought could be used to both consolidate and challenge Joffrey's responsibility:
 

Quote
  • AGOT, Tyrion I

     Tyrion gave her a crooked smile. "Why, only that Tommen may get his wish. The maester thinks the boy may yet live." He took a sip of beer.
     Myrcella gave a happy gasp, and Tommen smiled nervously, but it was not the children Tyrion was watching. The glance that passed between Jaime and Cersei lasted no more than a second, but he did not miss it. Then his sister dropped her gaze to the table. "That is no mercy. These northern gods are cruel to let the child linger in such pain."
     [...]
     Jaime Lannister regarded his brother thoughtfully with those cool green eyes. "Stark will never consent to leave Winterfell with his son lingering in the shadow of death."
     "He will if Robert commands it," Tyrion said. "And Robert will command it. There is nothing Lord Eddard can do for the boy in any case."
     "He could end his torment," Jaime said. "I would, if it were my son. It would be a mercy."
     "I advise against putting that suggestion to Lord Eddard, sweet brother," Tyrion said. "He would not take it kindly."
     "Even if the boy does live, he will be a cripple. Worse than a cripple. A grotesque. Give me a good clean death."

 

For those who don't dispute Joffrey's responsabilty:

  1. It might indicate that Robert's words were Joffrey's final authorization;
  2. Stretching a little further, this might show Joffrey had both genetic, social and psychological predispositions to have hired the catspaw;
  3. Cersei's speech were merely an opportunistic reverberation of Robert's words.

For those who dispute Joffrey's responsabilty:

  1. Under this light, Robert giving Joffrey the ideia might look as a much bigger, much contradictory bullshit;
  2. If Cersei felt comfortable to say this in public, she might as well have had hired the catspaw or at least instigated and sponsored Joffrey to do so.
  3. It shows Myrcella and Tommen heard their mother and "father" declaim humanitarian arguments against Bran's life - Joffrey only heard Robert.
  4. knowing that Jaime heard what Cersei said above, with the kids around, and that he declared in private that he would kill he's own son if he was in Ned's situation, Jaime's epiphany in ASOS looks forced and out of character.

 

Note: I like very much it was Joffrey. Despite the discrepancies, I was still quite amused to see that all the real friction between Lannisters and Starks began because of some extravagance of Joffrey.

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Tyrion glanced down and saw the Hound standing with young Joffrey as squires swarmed around them. "At least he dies quietly," the prince replied. "It's the wolf that makes the noise. I could scarce sleep last night."

Clegane cast a long shadow across the hard-packed earth as his squire lowered the black helm over his head. "I could silence the creature, if it please you," he said through his open visor. His boy placed a longsword in his hand. He tested the weight of it, slicing at the cold morning air. Behind him, the yard rang to the clangor of steel on steel.

The notion seemed to delight the prince. "Send a dog to kill a dog!" he exclaimed. "Winterfell is so infested with wolves, the Starks would never miss one."

Tyrion hopped off the last step onto the yard. "I beg to differ, nephew," he said. "The Starks can count past six. Unlike some princes I might name."

 

I suppose it is a bit much to say he disagrees but he doesn't agree.

Quote

 

"Did I tell you to throw him out the window? If you'd gone hunting as I begged you, nothing would have happened. But no, you had to have me, you could not wait until we returned to the city."

"I'd waited long enough. I hated watching Robert stumble to your bed every night, always wondering if maybe this night he'd decide to claim his rights as husband." Jaime suddenly remembered something else that troubled him about Winterfell. "At Riverrun, Catelyn Stark seemed convinced I'd sent some footpad to slit her son's throat. That I'd given him a dagger."

"That," she said scornfully. "Tyrion asked me about that."

"There was a dagger. The scars on Lady Catelyn's hands were real enough, she showed them to me. Did you . . . ?"

"Oh, don't be absurd." Cersei closed the window. "Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. 'We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children,' he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink."

Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. "Were you alone when Robert said this?"

"You don't think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children." Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls. "Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?"

It was meant as mockery, but she'd cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. "Not Myrcella. Joffrey."

Cersei frowned. "Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself."

"A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father." He had an uncomfortable thought. "Tyrion almost died because of this bloody dagger. If he knew the whole thing was Joffrey's work, that might be why . . ."

"I don't care why," Cersei said. "He can take his reasons down to hell with him. If you had seen how Joff died . . . he fought, Jaime, he fought for every breath, but it was as if some malign spirit had its hands about his throat. He had such terror in his eyes . . . When he was little, he'd run to me when he was scared or hurt and I would protect him. But that night there was nothing I could do. Tyrion murdered him in front of me, and there was nothing I could do." Cersei sank to her knees before his chair and took Jaime's good hand between both of hers. "Joff is dead and Myrcella's in Dorne. Tommen's all I have left. You mustn't let Father take him from me. Jaime, please."

 

1 hour ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

If I understand you correctly here you are saying Cersei is trying to blame it on Robert & when that didn't work started blaming the children in an effort to point the blame away from her. My issue with this is I can't see Cersei blaming something she did on one of her children. 

That being said I would feel much more confident saying that if it hadn't been Jaime she was talking to. Had it been anyone else I would say for certain she would not implicate one of her children for fear of retribution on said child but she knows Jaime isn't going to say anything to anyone so it's possible. 

So who do you think did it? Cersei? 

I'm saying she could be lying if we assume it's not author error. I mean it's conceivable that he wrote in this conversation between Cersei and Tyrion about the dagger somewhere prior to Jaime 9. It could be that he had it edited out and all mention of it was edited out of the story but they missed this small part. Writing that does seem rather wild speculation and I'm writing my own counter arguments. But it's just about conceivable.  

However, if we read this part from the assumption that it's not author error it does seem like Cersei is lying. If she's lied about the conversation what else can she be lying about possibly all of it. That could mean no conversation with Robert no children over hearing nothing for Jaime to base his Joffrey theory on. Just Cersei deflecting Jaime away from suspecting her. 

But then why would she lie to Jaime? It's not a question I have an answer for, he was the one to push him out of the window. So....It's a mystery, a suspicious mystery. 

Although around this time don't we find out she is lying to Jaime about screwing around while he's been away. Moonboy for all I know and all of that.

I'm not married to any theory. My own personal hope is it's a time travel thing, someone from the future sent back to take out an all powerful Bran before he gets started, maybe even Bran himself. That's just a feeling though based on wild speculation.

My top suspects would be

  1. Mance
  2. Littlefinger
  3. Cersei
  4. Robert

I could make a good case for either Mance or Littlefinger they both have means far more motive and opportunity. Cersei is based purely on this mystery and Robert if you put faith in the e-mails. Implicated in ACoK and ASoS. So a big gap between 2 and 3. 

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12 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I agree Joffrey would be slightly familiar with it after having seen Ned be executed with a VS sword but to be fair that happened after the attempt on Bran's life so both could be true. Joff could have been unfamiliar enough with VS before Ned's execution to have been "foolish" enough to pick LF's knife & by his name day, after Ned's execution felt like he was familiar enough with it to boast that he is no stranger to VS - although I wouldn't necessarily say that qualifies him as familiar with it, given Joff's tendency to boast he may have. 

Setting aside what should be the first question for a minute (Why would Joff give an assassin the knife in the first place?), I think you missed he point here...

Joff isn't a stranger to Valyrian Steel, Ned's dead baby.

Tyrion tries to use Joff's comment about familiarity with Valyrian Steel as evidence while at the same time dismissing Joff's familiarity since Tyrion suspects he gave the assassin the Valyrian Steel dagger. This is a contradiction. 

When Joff talks about being familiar with Valyrian Steel he either:

A. is talking about the dagger, which by Tyrions own logic makes no sense since he wouldn't have given it away.

or

B. He isn't talking about the dagger, in which case it's not relevant nor is it evidence against him.

The point is that this comment isn't evidence that Joff gave the dagger to the assassin, or even that he ever interacted with the dagger at all!

12 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

This is odd & like you said possibly an author error but if we operate under the assumption that it isn't an error or George's part & therefore is an error on Tyrion's part it definitely takes from Tyrion's deduction that it was Joffrey. I don't recall Joffrey disagreeing with Sandor about killing Bran being a mercy but it has been a while since I've read it. What exactly does Joff say? I only remember thinking Joff was very uninterested & could have cared less what was going on with Bran which does give credit to the theory that it wasn't Joff but I don't think that alone is enough to say for sure it wasn't Joff. 

They talk about killing the wolf not Bran...

also, later when Tyrion tells Joff to give the Starks his condolences...

"The Stark boy is nothing to me," Joffrey said. "I cannot abide the wailing of women."

Widows Wail?

Cheers...

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23 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

suppose it is a bit much to say he disagrees but he doesn't agree.

Yeah definitely not a disagreement or an agreement. He is uninterested in Bran at all the wolf howling is what he is complaining about. Given the quote I don't think "send a dog to kill a dog" is far from "send a dog to kill a wolf" given Joff is talking about a wolf. He says dog the first time but then says WF is infested with wolves so they won't miss one. I'll agree it's still odd for Tyrion to misquote Joff later though. 

 

27 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

I'm saying she could be lying if we assume it's not author error. I mean it's conceivable that he wrote in this conversation between Cersei and Tyrion about the dagger somewhere prior to Jaime 9. It could be that he had it edited out and all mention of it was edited out of the story but they missed this small part. Writing that does seem rather wild speculation and I'm writing my own counter arguments. But it's just about conceivable.  

However, if we read this part from the assumption that it's not author error it does seem like Cersei is lying. If she's lied about the conversation what else can she be lying about possibly all of it. That could mean no conversation with Robert no children over hearing nothing for Jaime to base his Joffrey theory on. Just Cersei deflecting Jaime away from suspecting her. 

But what would be her motive to lie about Tyrion asking her about the dagger? It seems an odd thing to lie about when she could have just as easily left it out. Either way it doesn't mean she wasn't lying about what Robert said. That, she has a very clear motive for. 

 

31 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

But then why would she lie to Jaime? It's not a question I have an answer for, he was the one to push him out of the window. So....It's a mystery, a suspicious mystery. 

Although around this time don't we find out she is lying to Jaime about screwing around while he's been away. Moonboy for all I know and all of that.

I think she would lie to Jaime after the plan failed realizing it was not a very good plan to begin with. She prides herself on being the cunning one, smart one, courageous one, thinks she should have been born the male. Had this whole thing worked out; Bran was dead & she wasn't suspected, she would have taken the blame for it. Because it didnt she would lie. Not that I'm convinced Cersei did it, just my opinion on why she wouldn't take credit for it if she did do it. At the very least, as you stated, we know she isn't above lying to Jaime. 

 

35 minutes ago, Banner Without Brothers said:

'm not married to any theory. My own personal hope is it's a time travel thing, someone from the future sent back to take out an all powerful Bran before he gets started, maybe even Bran himself. That's just a feeling though based on wild speculation.

This I love! It would be fantastic. 

 

34 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Setting aside what should be the first question for a minute (Why would Joff give an assassin the knife in the first place?), I think you missed he point here...

Joff isn't a stranger to Valyrian Steel, Ned's dead baby.

Tyrion tries to use Joff's comment about familiarity with Valyrian Steel as evidence while at the same time dismissing Joff's familiarity since Tyrion suspects he gave the assassin the Valyrian Steel dagger. This is a contradiction. 

When Joff talks about being familiar with Valyrian Steel he either:

A. is talking about the dagger, which by Tyrions own logic makes no sense since he wouldn't have given it away.

or

B. He isn't talking about the dagger, in which case it's not relevant nor is it evidence against him.

The point is that this comment isn't evidence that Joff gave the dagger to the assassin, or even that he ever interacted with the dagger at all!

I gotcha. It is contradictory I suppose, I just didn't read it like that. I just meant that, in an effort to boast as he is like to do, he claimed himself "no stranger" to VS thus giving himself away unintentionally. As for why he would give the assassin a dagger in the first place: because it was accessible? Because having an assassin smother someone with a pillow wouldn't be a very satisfactory death to Joffrey? Mind you I'm not 100% positive it was Joff & do see the descrepancy I'm just playing devils advocate. 

 

37 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

They talk about killing the wolf not Bran...

also, later when Tyrion tells Joff to give the Starks his condolences...

"The Stark boy is nothing to me," Joffrey said. "I cannot abide the wailing of women."

Widows Wail?

Cheers

Nice. 

On a side note about the fan emails: doesn't GRRM say we have been given enough evidence to deduce who sent the catspaw in the first 2 books or something to that affect? He doesn't say "The person who sent the catspaw will be revealed" does he? Because I don't take that to mean it is or isn't Joffrey. Only that we've been given enough to figure it out. 

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1 hour ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I just meant that, in an effort to boast as he is like to do, he claimed himself "no stranger" to VS thus giving himself away unintentionally. As for why he would give the assassin a dagger in the first place: because it was accessible? Because having an assassin smother someone with a pillow wouldn't be a very satisfactory death to Joffrey? Mind you I'm not 100% positive it was Joff & do see the descrepancy I'm just playing devils advocate

Devils advocates are encouraged!!! Exactly how I ended up here... literally earlier on his very thread I came in suspecting Joff and have convinced myself since that it was Mance...

My point was that since we already have an example of an experience of Joff and how sharp Valyrian Steel is (Ned's execution) he didn't give anything away...

As for why give an assassin the dagger? The assassin was clearly already well paid... 

I can't think of any reason for Joff to give the man a unique dagger. Really, why? Even if Joff had special instructions for how he wanted Bran carved up there is no logical reason to give the man a special knife.

On the other hand, if someone else sent the assassin, giving them a dagger that would point suspicion elsewhere if caught makes perfect sense...

Given that Mance was there, in disguise, with a bag of silver, had access to the baggage, and every reason to want Starks dead and kneelers squabling... he checks all the boxes.

Also he had every reason to be interested in Valyrian Steel before Bran fell, and might have taken the dagger before hand, only giving it to the assassin after Bran fell, in case the assassin was caught. Since nobody knew he was there, if the mission had been a success there would be no reason to suspect him.

The Winterfell Library being used as a distraction also plays right into this narrative, since it would be a great place to go digging for information on the Others. 

Mance's actions after returning North also fit nicely, gathering the wild kings for an invasion while Winterfell is distracted, and digging for some ancient power in the frostfangs.

 

Of course I don't know what the "truth" is, but this is a much more logical and reasonable explanation for events than Joff arming an already well paid free rider with a unique weapon to kill a cripple in a coma who Joff doesn't even care about because either Littlefinger influenced him from half a continent away or he wanted a pat from dad for "mercifully" killing his best friend's son in secret.

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19 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Oh, there are plenty of surprises to come and even a few mysteries to be cleared up yet (Jon's parentage, what really happened at the ToJ, what happened to Benjen Stark, who Coldhands is, where Hallis Mollen ended up with Ned's bones, where Rickon and Osha are, the truth or otherwise of the Pink Letter, who Aegon really is, what happened to Tyrek Lannister, the identity of the Hooded Man, who killed Big Walder, hell you could even throw in what happened to Tysha or Gerion Lannister).  GRRM will have lots of surprises in store for us, some major reveals and lots of new twists as well.  I just find it baffling that the dagger has such a hold on some of you.  It was explained in ASOS.  You want more, i get it.  Don't be too disappointed if you don't get it and were chasing moonbeams the whole time.

It's got nothing to do with the dagger. It's all about Joff's motivation at this point. Almost all of the things you mentioned are also old news and irrelevant to the story at this point: Ben Stark is dead and gone, Coldhands has served his purpose, Tysha and Gerion are long gone -- no reason at all to reintroduce them into the story. Virtually every POV and non-POV says Jon is Ned's son. Why do you take POV speculation about Bran as the full and final truth but just toss all of these other POV statements into the wind?

19 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Wait a minute...  You actually quote GRRM and then misuse the quote.....

Some other questions, i.e. questions other than Bran and the dagger and Jon Arryn's killer because those questions are resolved.  His words as you so helpfully illustrate.  You may call this truly logical thinking on your part, it looks more like wishful thinking and selective reasoning to me. Sorry, I just think you're too attached to this to really evaluate objectively.

Sorry, wishful thinking is imagining things that are not there, so believing that these "other questions" are related to anything other than what Martin is talking about, the attempt on Bran and JA's killer (with are both related), is the definition of wishful thinking. You're fooling yourself if you think otherwise.

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Seams said:

As I thought about the dragonbone handle on the dagger, I decided this might also point to Littlefinger as the motivator behind the catspaw. 

I suspect that Littlefinger is a hidden Targ or, perhaps, a Velaryon descendant. In his role as Master of Coin, people talk about his magical ability to rub dragons together to make more dragons. Of course, on the surface, this refers to his business acumen in earning gold coins. I still have a suspicion that he obtained real dragon eggs from Penny and Groat. I admit, it's hard to imagine that dragon eggs would both hatch and grow large enough to be factors in the last two books of ASOIAF in the time since Littlefinger contacted Penny and Groat to perform at Joffrey's wedding feast. It may be more likely that Littlefinger is the "dragon" who has hatched and grown over the years while he nursed his grudges against the highborn houses that refused to acknowledge him as a peer.

His lack of silver blonde Targ hair may be one of the twists GRRM has in store for us: we have bought into Ned Stark's (and Jon Arryn and Jon Connington's) certainty that hair color is scientific proof of paternity. In the real world, we know that recessive and dominant genes can recombine in unexpected ways. Why have we become convinced that we can spot a ASOIAF person's heritage solely through hair color? The author has already told us that "dragonseeds" who don't look like Targs and who have non-Targ mothers could become dragon riders. I think this early and central "canon" belief is one of the ways GRRM might surprise us.

Of course, if @LiveFirstDieLater's observation is correct about a bastard connection to the catspaw, does that mean Littlefinger is also a bastard? This could be true - we have only vague, third-hand accounts of his family line. He has come up with a sigil (the mockingbird) that differ's from his father's sigil (the head of the Titan of Braavos), and he does not seem particularly attached to his family's colors. Maybe Hoster Tully knew his real story; maybe not. I would compare him to Hugh of the Vale, whose origin seems similarly vague, but who secured a prestigious job close to Jon Arryn.

As I thought about the Ramsay / Theon and Catspaw / Bran parallels suggested by the earlier post and some of these new ideas, I thought of an additional possible parallel arc: Jaqen / Arya at Harrenhal. Jaqen is Arya's catspaw until the Weasel Soup incident plays out. At the close of that scene, Jaqen tells Arya that she has blood on her hands. He is telling her that she is responsible for the deaths of the guards, but is there a second layer of meaning? Is Arya becoming "Catelyn" at that point, with bloody hands from a somewhat self-inflicted wound to her moral compass? While Jaqen talks to Arya, Biter is in the background eating the fingers of one of the dead guards. (Recall also that Theon tells Lady Dustin that he asked Ramsay to cut off his fingers because he didn't need so many - another "self-inflicted" wound.)

The Jaqen link in the chain mail takes us in another direction, perhaps, if it is parallel to Littlefinger. There has been discussion elsewhere in the forum comparing the Bank of Braavos to the House of Black and White, so a Jaqen / Littlefinger comparison might be apt on that level. If Littlefinger sent the catspaw (or manipulated Joffrey into doing it), however, there is a further parallel in Jaqen giving Arya the iron coin and setting her on a path to become a killer. Both men manipulating others to become assassins. Ramsay corrupts Theon, Jaqen corrupts Arya and Littlefinger corrupts Joffrey and then Sansa.

And Ramsay marries fArya and Theon kidnaps fArya so (in a literary, symbolic sense) the circles close.

Uh, you'll have to catch me up on your theory as to how Penny and Groat came to have real dragons eggs, why they would just give them to Littlefinger and why they would continue to perform for, well, pennies and groats, rather than retire to their splendid manse that came from the sale of virtually priceless eggs.

Personally, I think LF's ability to rub two coins together to make a third is the fact that he is being bankrolled by someone, either the IB or, would this be too impossible to believe, Illyrio? I don't see him as a secret Targ, although its possible. He and Shae are the only ones to use the ae digraph in their names, other than Margaery, which was probably done specifically to make her look queenly. I think the only ones who know the real backstory of Littlefinger's family are the Corbreys.

Literary circles aside, though, I still think the most logical conclusion, given the facts on the page and the statements of the author, is that LF put the seed for the attempt in Joffrey's mind. Means, motive, opportunity.

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