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NBA 2017 - 18: A Shot at Parity


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T'Wolves-Cavs last night was really fun. Love watching Jimmy Butler and Lebron going at each other all OT. Jimmy was awesome but he made one critical mistake. Instead of using up the full 24 seconds on the final possession in OT and either hitting the game-winner or going to OT, he shot it with, like, 2 seconds left. Lebron then stuffed him and then ripped his heart out with a Christian Laettner turnaround on the other end. Classic Lebron. Remember how people used to argue he wasn't clutch? Hilarious. 

The other thing though is Jimmy Butler got a little Iso-heavy in OT. Towns scored 30 and shot 80+% for the game including perfect from 3 - how is he completely ignored in OT?

Cavs desperately needed that win. Still not sure what they do about Isaiah though. Dude is shooting 35% from the field, 23% from 3, doesn't have anything close to his athleticism back, is the worst defender in the NBA, and seems to actively be a cancer. It seems like they're trying to play him back to his previous form but his mere presence on the floor forces Lebron to work twice as hard to compete. Lebron put up a 37/10/15 and played 48 minutes and thank God they had a win to show for that. But I don't think you can count on I.T. returning to his previous form this year. He's an expiring...I'd move him if there's anything at all decent they can get. 

ETA: Oh, cool, the Cavs listened to me:

 

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The Lakers have already played both their games against Boston, so it looks like IT will have to wait another year to return and get his tribute video. Also, Pierce doesn’t have to share his day anymore. Lol.

And this is spot on:

 

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I would like to go on record that I think Lebron going to the Lakers is a complete pipe dream.  The sports media eats it up, because they cannot stand that the Lakers are irrelevant, but it is true.  The Lakers are not close to contending with the Warriors.  Even after signing Lebron, and assuming no dropoff in Lebron's play, the Lakers still aren't close.  What if they also sign Paul George?  Still not particularly close.  There's just no path to Lebron winning another title in LA. 

I think it's overwhelmingly likely that Lebron is going to Texas, be it SA or HOU.  The list of teams that are close to the talent needed that they might be able to win with Lebron:

- Houston: The favorite, IMO.  His game works well with Paul and Harden. 

- San Antonio: If Leonard coms back, this is a real possibility.  Leonard and James are great compliments to one another.  But will Pop be willing to deal with Lebron's bullshit?

- Boston: Not likely, they seem to have an anti-Lebron thing going.

- OKC:  There's no way they can fit their current big 3 and Lebron.  Plus Lebron might make the current mismatch of stars even worse. 

- Minnesota:  Not sure how they could fit this under the cap without shipping somebody out.  They have the talent, but another small market middle America team seems unlikely. 

- Toronto:  Canada?  I don't know about that.  Plus i'm not sure the challenge GSW even with James.

- Washington:  I'm obligated to include them as a Wiz fan.  Huge cap problems to make this work, not clear if Wall is gonna be healthy, and again, I'm not sure if the talent is sufficient.  Although a lineup of Wall/Beal/James/Porter/Morris is pretty scary, and can play both ends. 

Virtually every team on that list doesn't have the cap room to sign Lebron.  So a lot of the question is what they'd look like after making room for James. 

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Cavs got a lot better for this season. Got rid of a bunch of guys who wouldn't be able to hang in a playoff series and now actually have younger 3 and D wings and a PG who can actually defend to surround Lebron. Larry Nance is also decent. 

Still not sure why they didn't have to give up more for Hood and Hill. 

But yeah it was time to admit defeat on the Kyrie trade. At least they cut their losses. 

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7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I would like to go on record that I think Lebron going to the Lakers is a complete pipe dream.  The sports media eats it up, because they cannot stand that the Lakers are irrelevant, but it is true.  The Lakers are not close to contending with the Warriors.  Even after signing Lebron, and assuming no dropoff in Lebron's play, the Lakers still aren't close.  What if they also sign Paul George?  Still not particularly close.  There's just no path to Lebron winning another title in LA. 

Big question is if Durant and Thompson are willing to keep taking below-market value contracts. If they are, then yeah, LeBron Lakers aren't close enough to compete. But if they decide they've won enough and it's time to get paid, then this season or next, GS is blowing up their roster. They'd still have Curry and some combination of their starters, so they'd still be very good, but the West would be pretty wide open.

Of course, I don't think there's any way LeBron knows what they'll do; hell, Durant and Thompson may not know what they want to do yet. So he probably shouldn't base his long-term plans on it.

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2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Big question is if Durant and Thompson are willing to keep taking below-market value contracts. If they are, then yeah, LeBron Lakers aren't close enough to compete. But if they decide they've won enough and it's time to get paid, then this season or next, GS is blowing up their roster. They'd still have Curry and some combination of their starters, so they'd still be very good, but the West would be pretty wide open.

Of course, I don't think there's any way LeBron knows what they'll do; hell, Durant and Thompson may not know what they want to do yet. So he probably shouldn't base his long-term plans on it.

Durant's had his chance to make money and not win.  I think he stays put.

Thompson on the other hand?  :dunno: 

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8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Virtually every team on that list doesn't have the cap room to sign Lebron.  So a lot of the question is what they'd look like after making room for James. 

That's why I still think LA is the most likely. He has two houses there and can almost build a team from scratch Miami style. And if he goes to Houston or SA he'll be seen as tagging along with an already great team, Durant style. He'd only do Houston or SA if rings is his sole priority and I'm not sure it is. Ball, Kuzma, Ingram, George and Lebron doesn't get you past Golden State but it's a fun roster. At least Lonzo doesn't need (or want) the ball. 

Houston is #2. But again what do they have to give up to get him? With Lebron, Harden and Paul all maxing out, not sure how much room is left for key guys like Capela, Gordon and Tucker. Also need someone to take Ryan Anderson off their hands.  And how do Harden and Lebron share the ball? It'd be like a more extreme Wade vs. Lebron or Kyrie vs. Lebron dilemma. 

But the core issue is all the best destinations are in the Western Conference and that instantly makes a harder road. 

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What a crazy hour. I think LeBron pulled off a massive win. As mentioned above, Cleveland shed a bunch of malcontents and disappointments, and got players who fit much better with LeBron this year. I think they have a much clearer path to the Finals (where they'll still get rocked) than they did an hour ago. Then LeBron can either stay with those guys, or ditch to LA, whom he helped free up max space for two guys. 

I agree and disagree somewhat with Maithanet. I don't think LBJ and Paul George in purple and gold wins them a title, but it sure is a huge start. They'd have Randle, Kuzma, Ingram and Ball as either young fits, or trade bait for stars. My anti-LeBron glasses see him believing he can win in LA before he retires. 

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5 minutes ago, Fez said:

Big question is if Durant and Thompson are willing to keep taking below-market value contracts. If they are, then yeah, LeBron Lakers aren't close enough to compete. But if they decide they've won enough and it's time to get paid, then this season or next, GS is blowing up their roster. They'd still have Curry and some combination of their starters, so they'd still be very good, but the West would be pretty wide open.

Of course, I don't think there's any way LeBron knows what they'll do; hell, Durant and Thompson may not know what they want to do yet. So he probably shouldn't base his long-term plans on it.

Well looking at Sportrac, it looks like all the main GSW guys are signed at least for this year and next.  So yes, there's a good chance that the Warriors will have trouble holding onto the full Big 4 in the 2020 season.  But by then Lebron is going to by 35, and have a LOT more miles than most 35 year olds.  I have no doubt he'll still be good, but he might have trouble staying healthy and his defense will probably suffer significantly.  Kobe dropped off fast once he hit 34-35. 

I think that if Lebron is going to win another championship, his chances go down significantly each year.  So he needs a team that is going to be great in 2018-19 and 19-20.  The Lakers are not that team. 

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5 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

That's why I still think LA is the most likely. He has two houses there and can almost build a team from scratch Miami style. And if he goes to Houston or SA he'll be seen as tagging along with an already great team, Durant style. He'd only do Houston or SA if rings is his sole priority and I'm not sure it is. Ball, Kuzma, Ingram, George and Lebron doesn't get you past Golden State but it's a fun roster. At least Lonzo doesn't need (or want) the ball. 

Houston is #2. But again what do they have to give up to get him? With Lebron, Harden and Paul all maxing out, not sure how much room is left for key guys like Capela, Gordon and Tucker. Also need someone to take Ryan Anderson off their hands.  And how do Harden and Lebron share the ball? It'd be like a more extreme Wade vs. Lebron or Kyrie vs. Lebron dilemma. 

But the core issue is all the best destinations are in the Western Conference and that instantly makes a harder road. 

Kinda OT, but even as a Rockets fan I cannot get why it’s always such an attractive destination option for star players. Never been, but my Rockets fan friends tell me it’s a terrible place, and you’d think the tax thing would make Dallas and San Antonio just as appealing. Not complaining, just always puzzled. 

As for LBJ to _____, I have no clue. I guess as a Rockets fan I’d say ‘why would he hedge his bets after all this time?’

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8 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

That's why I still think LA is the most likely. He has two houses there and can almost build a team from scratch Miami style. And if he goes to Houston or SA he'll be seen as tagging along with an already great team, Durant style. He'd only do Houston or SA if rings is his sole priority and I'm not sure it is.

It is hard for me to imagine Lebron wants anything BUT another championship.  He's the best player of his generation, and yet he's only managed 3 rings.  That's by far the fewest of the All-Time greats of guys like Jordan, Magic, Russell, Kobe, Duncan.  It's more akin to the second tier greats like Shaq, or Hakeem.  I mean, if he just wants to go out there and have fun, he can start a pickup league. 

Quote

But the core issue is all the best destinations are in the Western Conference and that instantly makes a harder road. 

Well there is one Eastern conference team that has a lot of talent and hasn't won a championship since the 70s...

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