Military Strengths and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

@Free Northman Reborn

300 years is a long time, even by Westerosi Standards; Just look at the information we have on Andal invasions; it was some 2000 years ago We have some knowledge on the Vale, it was sparsely populated, we also know of Theon Stark's actions in Essos, a few villages and a fortified sept was enough of a retaliation. In our World population multiplied several times over just in the past hundred years and while in our World it is based on medical advancements too, food is also a factor. Also Reach may just have benefited from being a part of a single kingdom. Despite several majör wars in the past 300 years, Only once was Reach was battlegrounds for a war.

On Westerlands I think they are mostly tapped out even before they started to gather a second host beneath Lannisport. Robb being unable to raise a new levy from Westerling holdings should be a clue to that. If not, there's also Tywin's army;

Quote

Tyrion turned his courser in a circle to look over the field. The ground was rolling and uneven here; soft and muddy near the river, rising in a gentle slope toward the kingsroad, stony and broken beyond it, to the east. A few trees spotted the hillsides, but most of the land had been cleared and planted. His heart pounded in his chest in time to the drums, and under his layers of leather and steel his brow was cold with sweat. He watched Ser Gregor as the Mountain rode up and down the line, shouting and gesticulating. This wing too was all cavalry, but where the right was a mailed fist of knights and heavy lancers, the vanguard was made up of the sweepings of the west: mounted archers in leather jerkins, a swarming mass of undisciplined freeriders and sellswords, fieldhands on plow horses armed with scythes and their fathers' rusted swords, half-trained boys from the stews of Lannisport … and Tyrion and his mountain clansmen.

 

On the game think it's numbers are skewed. They may have been somewhat accurate at start, but not so now.

Westerlands alone should be a good example of this; Tywin has 35000, yes but that includes many sellswords and boys we hear of being left home in the other regions.

[Universal Sword Donor]

11 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

On Westerlands I think they are mostly tapped out even before they started to gather a second host beneath Lannisport. Robb being unable to raise a new levy from Westerling holdings should be a clue to that. If not, there's also Tywin's army;

Why? They are poor and have small holdings.

"Dare I ask how many swords come with your bride, Robb?"

"Fifty. A dozen knights."

---

The Westerlings were old blood, but they had more pride than power. It would not surprise him to learn that Lady Sybell had brought more wealth to the marriage than her highborn husband. The Westerling mines had failed years ago, their best lands had been sold off or lost, and the Crag was more ruin than stronghold. A romantic ruin, though, jutting up so brave above the sea. 

----

And as far as Tywin's army was concerned:

 

"I put the least disciplined men on the left, yes. I anticipated that they would break. Robb Stark is a greenboy, more like to be brave than wise.

 

Those guys were just put out as bait. Sellswords were going to be rabble anyway. No one really cares if the Mountain's men die, but if they do well, it's golden gravy. The farmboys are most likely just camp followers who managed to get a shitty horse, aka the people who attached themselves to the army without being summoned (aka the Septon Meribalds of the world)

 

11 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

On the game think it's numbers are skewed. They may have been somewhat accurate at start, but not so now.

Westerlands alone should be a good example of this; Tywin has 35000, yes but that includes many sellswords and boys we hear of being left home in the other regions.

Yet there are enough men for Stafford to start training a new army, garrison the Golden tooth, CR, Lannisport, et al? They might be short on available manpower (in the middle of harvest season) but I don't think they are tapped out

[Corvo the Crow]

I was thinking, many times we are told, at least in the North, of all the grown men going off to war with only boys left and demographics would more or less be the same so perhaps we can use these boys to have an idea on the numbers of some houses;

I may fine tune this later on but for now, here's a basic calculation ignoring a lot of things.

Robb's 12000 host had Karstarks, Umbers, Boltons, Cerwyns, Hornwoods, Tallharts, Mormonts Glovers(some of which are wood clans) and some Mountain clansmen

Karstarks have 2300 going south, they later raise ~450 for Stannis and ~200 for Rodrik. I'll take ~450 + ~200 as both 600 and 650

650/2950 they have %22 boys, 600/2900 they have %21(20,7) boys.

Boltons: We know Ramsay has been massing men for sometime and he has raised 400-600, so for %22 they have 1400-2150 and for %21 they have 1500-2250.

Cerwyns: Their 300 is a rasie in very short notice but I'll take it as it is ~1050 and ~1150 for just the nearest holdfasts.

Umbers: Mors' force has boys and old serjeants both so I'll calculate for 350 and 400 1250-1400 and  1300-1500

Starks: 400 men Rodrik gathered were from nearest holdfasts alone and Winterfell's 200 garrison is also all-boys now. ~2100 and ~2250

Tallharts: 250-350 including Wild hares and with Rodrik 875-1225 and 950-1350

Mormonts: When they attacked, Asha had 4 longships meaning fewer than 150 men and even then Mormonts couldn't confront them directly, 50-100 men at most I think meaning  175-350 and 200-375. Which I think is in line with what Jeor said (night's watch has only 300 or so rangers, the fighting force)

Hornwoods: 50-100 men turns for Rodrik, they have lost men fighting against Boltons and there was no leadership , I don't think there are many Hornwoods around since lady Donella comes with a very small escort(6) let's say 150-250 for furthering the calculation 550-900 and 550-1000

Mountain Clansmen: I'll take them as 500 since it's the most common number I have seen people take.

Glovers: There could at most be 1000 Glovers left (joining Stannis) but I think it would be fewer since this 1000 also includes Cerwyns and Hornwoods from Rodrik's army, people from Stony Shore etc. and Wolfswood clansmen could be similar to Mountain ones in their levy so fewer people sent in percentage. Let's say there are 500-600 Glovers in this 1000. If they went out like Mountain Clansmen, there'd be fewer than 200 Glovers in Robb's host If they were like Karstarks there'd be ~2000, give or take a couple of hundred. Let's take something in between and say there were 1500

 

Taking all the HIGHEST numbers, it exceeds 14000 only by a little, not so far off from 12000 so taking the smaller numbers, at least some of these numbers aren't so far off, I think.

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Why? They are poor and have small holdings.

Having small holdings only reduce the number of total available men, not your demographics. Their wealth may affect how/if they can arm men for levy but Robb who would be so desperately in need of men to replace those Freys who left him could very well have found arms and armor for them.

 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Those guys were just put out as bait. Sellswords were going to be rabble anyway. No one really cares if the Mountain's men die, but if they do well, it's golden gravy. The farmboys are most likely just camp followers who managed to get a shitty horse, aka the people who attached themselves to the army without being summoned (aka the Septon Meribalds of the world)

 

Why would a farmboy be a camp follower? Anyway he explicitly says they are armed with scythes and plow horses. Also being a bait doesn't change the fact they were taken into levy in the first place.

[Universal Sword Donor]

33 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Having small holdings only reduce the number of total available men, not your demographics. Their wealth may affect how/if they can arm men for levy but Robb who would be so desperately in need of men to replace those Freys who left him could very well have found arms and armor for them.

Right, that's why I said they are poor and have small holdings.

33 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Why would a farmboy be a camp follower? Anyway he explicitly says they are armed with scythes and plow horses. Also being a bait doesn't change the fact they were taken into levy in the first place.

Because he's following the camp? Is that a serious question? If a lord shows up to levy with a farmboy on a plowhorse and a rusty scythe, they are going to send his ass back home. Then you have this:

for the most part we are talking about feudal levies and peasant militia, with little discipline and less training. Although some lords do better than others. Tywin Lannister's infantry was notoriously well disciplined

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1174/

They don't fit in equipment-wise with the rest of the army, they are in a leaderless mass, they are ill-disciplined, and the plan was for them to rout (unknowingly) so Tywin could decimate Robb's army. Did the notorious disciplinarian Tywin Lannister just led leaderless, shit "soldiers" into his army or did he grab a bunch of useless mouths to spring a trap? It's not like we have an example of what he'd do with such a group right before a big battle

But sure let's go with they were tapped out at the Green Fork.

[Free Northman Reborn]

37 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I was thinking, many times we are told, at least in the North, of all the grown men going off to war with only boys left and demographics would more or less be the same so perhaps we can use these boys to have an idea on the numbers of some houses;

I may fine tune this later on but for now, here's a basic calculation ignoring a lot of things.

Robb's 12000 host had Karstarks, Umbers, Boltons, Cerwyns, Hornwoods, Tallharts, Mormonts Glovers(some of which are wood clans) and some Mountain clansmen

Karstarks have 2300 going south, they later raise ~450 for Stannis and ~200 for Rodrik. I'll take ~450 + ~200 as both 600 and 650

650/2950 they have %22 boys, 600/2900 they have %21(20,7) boys.

Boltons: We know Ramsay has been massing men for sometime and he has raised 400-600, so for %22 they have 1400-2150 and for %21 they have 1500-2250.

Cerwyns: Their 300 is a rasie in very short notice but I'll take it as it is ~1050 and ~1150 for just the nearest holdfasts.

Umbers: Mors' force has boys and old serjeants both so I'll calculate for 350 and 400 1250-1400 and  1300-1500

Starks: 400 men Rodrik gathered were from nearest holdfasts alone and Winterfell's 200 garrison is also all-boys now. ~2100 and ~2250

Tallharts: 250-350 including Wild hares and with Rodrik 875-1225 and 950-1350

Mormonts: When they attacked, Asha had 4 longships meaning fewer than 150 men and even then Mormonts couldn't confront them directly, 50-100 men at most I think meaning  175-350 and 200-375. Which I think is in line with what Jeor said (night's watch has only 300 or so rangers, the fighting force)

Hornwoods: 50-100 men turns for Rodrik, they have lost men fighting against Boltons and there was no leadership , I don't think there are many Hornwoods around since lady Donella comes with a very small escort(6) let's say 150-250 for furthering the calculation 550-900 and 550-1000

Mountain Clansmen: I'll take them as 500 since it's the most common number I have seen people take.

Glovers: There could at most be 1000 Glovers left (joining Stannis) but I think it would be fewer since this 1000 also includes Cerwyns and Hornwoods from Rodrik's army, people from Stony Shore etc. and Wolfswood clansmen could be similar to Mountain ones in their levy so fewer people sent in percentage. Let's say there are 500-600 Glovers in this 1000. If they went out like Mountain Clansmen, there'd be fewer than 200 Glovers in Robb's host If they were like Karstarks there'd be ~2000, give or take a couple of hundred. Let's take something in between and say there were 1500

 

Taking all the HIGHEST numbers, it exceeds 14000 only by a little, not so far off from 12000 so taking the smaller numbers, at least some of these numbers aren't so far off, I think.

 

 

These are baseless calculations, unfortunately. You cannot extrapolate the full strength of a House based on the men they provided to Robb, when we are told that these men were provided at short notice, during harvest and therefore we do not know what portion of a House's full strength they represent.

Bolton sent in the region of 3000 men South, and still had 600 crack troops at the Dreadfort. He is not even resorting to his old men or boys yet, let alone peasants with pitchforks and sticks, as the Freys have started raising.

And percentages of old men and boys make no sense when you have a population in the North that even conservative estimates put at 3.5 million, and is more likely in the region of 5 million.

[Corvo the Crow]

On ‎10‎.‎01‎.‎2018 at 9:55 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right, that's why I said they are poor and have small holdings.

Because he's following the camp? Is that a serious question? If a lord shows up to levy with a farmboy on a plowhorse and a rusty scythe, they are going to send his ass back home. Then you have this:

for the most part we are talking about feudal levies and peasant militia, with little discipline and less training. Although some lords do better than others. Tywin Lannister's infantry was notoriously well disciplined

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1174/

They don't fit in equipment-wise with the rest of the army, they are in a leaderless mass, they are ill-disciplined, and the plan was for them to rout (unknowingly) so Tywin could decimate Robb's army. Did the notorious disciplinarian Tywin Lannister just led leaderless, shit "soldiers" into his army or did he grab a bunch of useless mouths to spring a trap? It's not like we have an example of what he'd do with such a group right before a big battle

But sure let's go with they were tapped out at the Green Fork.

Why are they there in the first place? If Tywin don't want useless mouths, how did they feed themselves for all those leagues? At their own expense?

Also from the same SSM:

Infantry outnumbered cavalry by a considerable margin, but for the most part we are talking about feudal levies and peasant militia, with little discipline and less training.

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

13 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Why are they there in the first place? If Tywin don't want useless mouths, how did they feed themselves for all those leagues? At their own expense?

Also from the same SSM:

Infantry outnumbered cavalry by a considerable margin, but for the most part we are talking about feudal levies and peasant militia, with little discipline and less training.

 

 

I agree with you. It seems quite clear that any Westerosi army has varying levels of quality in its ranks. Yes, Tywin had armored knights and discliplined, veteran infantry in his 20k. But he also had a bunch of sweepings from Lannisport, peasants and other cannon fodder in the mix.

And as the first levy gets whittled down, secondary hosts that are raised will have greater and greater proportions of the latter.

That adds to the evidence that 35k was already the bulk of the Wests strength, including a lot of mercenaries. Raising another 6k or so at Oxcross (to add to the 4k survivors who retreated from  the  Camps at Riverrun)  just tapped into the dregs even further.

The West MIGHT reach 50k if they are completely tapped out. 45k is a reasonable estimate too. Anything higher is unlikely, in my view.

[Corvo the Crow]

On ‎10‎.‎01‎.‎2018 at 9:55 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

These are baseless calculations, unfortunately. You cannot extrapolate the full strength of a House based on the men they provided to Robb, when we are told that these men were provided at short notice, during harvest and therefore we do not know what portion of a House's full strength they represent.

Bolton sent in the region of 3000 men South, and still had 600 crack troops at the Dreadfort. He is not even resorting to his old men or boys yet, let alone peasants with pitchforks and sticks, as the Freys have started raising.

And percentages of old men and boys make no sense when you have a population in the North that even conservative estimates put at 3.5 million, and is more likely in the region of 5 million.

I'm not going to dispute Bolton's numbers with Robb for now but I'll dispute that "600" being crack troops again. We only hear it as so from Ramsay but Ramsay is a liar with no training in anything.

Short Version: those troops are crack troops only because they were a battle tested levy in Hornwood incident.

 

Below is Ramsay for you

Quote

"He fights for you," Reek blurted out. "He's strong."

"Bulls are strong. Bears. I have seen my bastard fight. He is not entirely to blame. Reek was his tutor, the first Reek, and Reek was never trained at arms. Ramsay is ferocious, I will grant you, but he swings that sword like a butcher hacking meat."

 

This is how he fights.

 

Quote

"Few do," she replied. "He lived with his mother until two years past, when young Domeric died and left Bolton without an heir. That was when he brought his bastard to the Dreadfort. The boy is a sly creature by all accounts, and he has a servant who is almost as cruel as he is. Reek, they call the man. It's said he never bathes. They hunt together, the Bastard and this Reek, and not for deer. I've heard tales, things I can scarce believe, even of a Bolton. And now that my lord husband and my sweet son have gone to the gods, the Bastard looks at my lands hungrily."

 

This is sometime into the Wot5K so at the start of the series it wasn't even 2 years he lived in Dreadfort. Even people with no masters can get trained in arms and yet Ramsay doesn't even have that.

I wouldn't trust him with militarily matters not only because he is deceitful, but also because he lacks the training and education for that.

 

In case you are still thinking they are all cavalry, here are some more columns(apart from Theon saw passing through the gate

Robert coming North: 300

Quote

The visitors poured through the castle gates in a river of gold and silver and polished steel, three hundred strong, a pride of bannermen and knights, of sworn swords and freeriders. Over their heads a dozen golden banners whipped back and forth in the northern wind, emblazoned with the crowned stag of Baratheon.

Yet the huge man at the head of the column, flanked by two knights in the snow-white cloaks of the Kingsguard, seemed almost a stranger to Ned … until he vaulted off the back of his warhorse with a familiar roar, and crushed him in a bone-crunching hug. "Ned! Ah, but it is good to see that frozen face of yours." The king looked him over top to bottom, and laughed. "You have not changed at all."

 

Castle Black ranging: 200

Quote

Jon mounted his garron, wheeled him about, and trotted off. Beyond the shade of the great weirwood the men of the Night's Watch stood beneath lesser trees, tending their horses, chewing strips of salt beef, pissing, scratching, and talking. When the command was given to move out again, the talk died, and they climbed back into their saddles. Jarman Buckwell's scouts rode out first, with the vanguard under Thoren Smallwood heading the column proper. Then came the Old Bear with the main force, Ser Mallador Locke with the baggage train and packhorses, and finally Ser Ottyn Wythers and the rear guard. Two hundred men all told, with half again as many mounts.

 

Dany's "Khalasar": ~100

Quote

She put the oldest and weakest on the inside of the column, with the nursing women and those with child, and the little girls, and the boys too young to braid their hair. The rest—her warriors, such as they were—rode outside and moved their dismal herd along, the hundred-odd gaunt horses that had survived both red waste and black salt sea.

Jarl and Styr's climbers: Fewer than 120 after some deaths

Quote

Errok and Del had crept ahead to scout the ruins, but Del was back almost at once. Styr halted the column and sent a dozen of his Thenns trotting forward, spears in hand. By then Jon had seen it too: the glimmer of a fire, reddening the chimney of the inn. We are not alone. Dread coiled inside him like a snake. He heard a horse neigh, and then shouts. Ride with them, eat with them, fight with them, Qhorin had said.

Stannis Stannis Stannis: He had over 1000 men go North but not all are horseman, three columns then another wedge

Quote

Trumpets were blowing all around, loud and brazen. The wildlings have no trumpets, only warhorns. They knew that as well as he did; the sound sent free folk running in confusion, some toward the fighting, others away. A mammoth was stomping through a flock of sheep that three men were trying to herd off west. The drums were beating as the wildlings ran to form squares and lines, but they were too late, too disorganized, too slow. The enemy was emerging from the forest, from the east, the northeast, the north; three great columns of heavy horse, all dark glinting steel and bright wool surcoats. Not the men of Eastwatch, those had been no more than a line of scouts. An army. The king? Jon was as confused as the wildlings. Could Robb have returned? Had the boy on the Iron Throne finally bestirred himself? "You best get back inside the tent," he told Val.

It's done, Jon thought, they're breaking. The wildlings were running, throwing down their weapons, Hornfoot men and cave dwellers and Thenns in bronze scales, they were running. Mance was gone, someone was waving Harma's head on a pole, Tormund's lines had broken. Only the giants on their mammoths were holding, hairy islands in a red steel sea. The fires were leaping from tent to tent and some of the tall pines were going up as well. And through the smoke another wedge of armored riders came, on barded horses. Floating above them were the largest banners yet, royal standards as big as sheets; a yellow one with long pointed tongues that showed a flaming heart, and another like a sheet of beaten gold, with a black stag prancing and rippling in the wind.

 

Also on Wedges:

Quote

 crescent of enemy spearmen had formed ahead, a double hedgehog bristling with steel, waiting behind tall oaken shields marked with the sunburst of Karstark. Gregor Clegane was the first to reach them, leading a wedge of armored veterans. Half the horses shied at the last second, breaking their charge before the row of spears. The others died, sharp steel points ripping through their chests. Tyrion saw a dozen men go down

So a Wedge could have as few as two dozen or so

On sieges:

Quote

Wex helped garb him for battle. Beneath his black surcoat and golden mantle was a shirt of well-oiled ringmail, and under that a layer of stiff boiled leather. Once armed and armored, Theon climbed the watchtower at the angle where the eastern and southern walls came together to have a look at his doom. The northmen were spreading out to encircle the castle. It was hard to judge their numbers. A thousand at least; perhaps twice that many. Against seventeen. They'd brought catapults and scorpions. He saw no siege towers rumbling up the kingsroad, but there was timber enough in the wolfswood to build as many as were required.

Ramsay didn't face all Rodrik's men at once, not only they weren't expecting an attack, but they also spread out to encircle the castle.

 

Another point you bring out they have to be all horses is Ramsay's arrival;

Quote

Theon studied their banners through Maester Luwin's Myrish lens tube. The Cerwyn battle-axe flapped bravely wherever he looked, and there were Tallhart trees as well, and mermen from White Harbor. Less common were the sigils of Flint and Karstark. Here and there he even saw the bull moose of the Hornwoods. But no Glovers, Asha saw to them, no Boltons from the Dreadfort, no Umbers come down from the shadow of the Wall. Not that they were needed. Soon enough the boy Cley Cerwyn appeared before the gates carrying a peace banner on a tall staff, to announce that Ser Rodrik Cassel wished to parley with Theon Turncloak.

Even Flints and Karstarks are present, both live further away than Boltons. Unless you propose Karstarks had another hundred or two horses, Ramsay had mostly foot, as seen with their weapons for foot soldiers.

 

His troops are experienced, true, but not because they were experienced from the get go, no, they gained their experience fighting in Hornwood lands. We see other instances of levy considered experienced after a battle or two, though I have no time to find and post them at the moment.

[Free Northman Reborn]

45 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I'm not going to dispute Bolton's numbers with Robb for now but I'll dispute that "600" being crack troops again. We only hear it as so from Ramsay but Ramsay is a liar with no training in anything.

Short Version: those troops are crack troops only because they were a battle tested levy in Hornwood incident.

 

Below is Ramsay for you

This is how he fights.

 

 

This is sometime into the Wot5K so at the start of the series it wasn't even 2 years he lived in Dreadfort. Even people with no masters can get trained in arms and yet Ramsay doesn't even have that.

I wouldn't trust him with militarily matters not only because he is deceitful, but also because he lacks the training and education for that.

 

In case you are still thinking they are all cavalry, here are some more columns(apart from Theon saw passing through the gate

Robert coming North: 300

 

Castle Black ranging: 200

 

Dany's "Khalasar": ~100

Jarl and Styr's climbers: Fewer than 120 after some deaths

Stannis Stannis Stannis: He had over 1000 men go North but not all are horseman, three columns then another wedge

 

Also on Wedges:

So a Wedge could have as few as two dozen or so

On sieges:

Ramsay didn't face all Rodrik's men at once, not only they weren't expecting an attack, but they also spread out to encircle the castle.

 

Another point you bring out they have to be all horses is Ramsay's arrival;

Even Flints and Karstarks are present, both live further away than Boltons. Unless you propose Karstarks had another hundred or two horses, Ramsay had mostly foot, as seen with their weapons for foot soldiers.

 

His troops are experienced, true, but not because they were experienced from the get go, no, they gained their experience fighting in Hornwood lands. We see other instances of levy considered experienced after a battle or two, though I have no time to find and post them at the moment.

I'm not commenting on their relative skill and what "level" of veterans they are. I'm simply pointing this out:

"And now, my sweet prince, there was a woman promised me, if I brought two hundred men. Well, I brought three times as many, and no green boys nor fieldhands neither, but my father's own garrison."

These aren't boys or fieldhands. These are Roose's own garrison. Similar to men like Jory Cassel and the like. Not superhumans or 600 Gregor Clegane clones. But far from the green boys and old men Mors and Hother Umber raised in Dance.

And far from the rabble from the stews of Lannisport that Tyrion sees in one wing of Tywin's main army. Similarly, far from the peasants with sharpened sticks that form part of the Frey host that Theon saw marching past Moat Cailin with Roose in Dance.

So it is clear that the Boltons are not yet delving into their dregs the way the Umbers and Freys are, even after sending a large host with Robb and raising another 600 men with Ramsay.

[Corvo the Crow]

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm not commenting on their relative skill and what "level" of veterans they are. I'm simply pointing this out:

"And now, my sweet prince, there was a woman promised me, if I brought two hundred men. Well, I brought three times as many, and no green boys nor fieldhands neither, but my father's own garrison."

These aren't boys or fieldhands. These are Roose's own garrison. Similar to men like Jory Cassel and the like. Not superhumans or 600 Gregor Clegane clones. But far from the green boys and old men Mors and Hother Umber raised in Dance.

And far from the rabble from the stews of Lannisport that Tyrion sees in one wing of Tywin's main army. Similarly, far from the peasants with sharpened sticks that form part of the Frey host that Theon saw marching past Moat Cailin with Roose in Dance.

So it is clear that the Boltons are not yet delving into their dregs the way the Umbers and Freys are, even after sending a large host with Robb and raising another 600 men with Ramsay.

Well, no way of that. Again, Ramsay  has been massing men, meaning these men aren't Dreadfort's garrison. Also we have a variety of garrison numbers, and through them we know even big castles such as Winterfell and Storm's End have 200-300 at most, with 200 being a very large garrison for small Riverrun. There's no way Dreadfort will have 300+ men as garrison when even Dragonstone which didn't have many men available to raise had 400 and that's with the wealth to back it up; they don't marry fat Freys for their weight in silver.

[Corvo the Crow]

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I agree with you. It seems quite clear that any Westerosi army has varying levels of quality in its ranks. Yes, Tywin had armored knights and discliplined, veteran infantry in his 20k. But he also had a bunch of sweepings from Lannisport, peasants and other cannon fodder in the mix.

And as the first levy gets whittled down, secondary hosts that are raised will have greater and greater proportions of the latter.

That adds to the evidence that 35k was already the bulk of the Wests strength, including a lot of mercenaries. Raising another 6k or so at Oxcross (to add to the 4k survivors who retreated from  the  Camps at Riverrun)  just tapped into the dregs even further.

The West MIGHT reach 50k if they are completely tapped out. 45k is a reasonable estimate too. Anything higher is unlikely, in my view.

Yes but where would this put North or Reach in the same circumstances? We know Tywin quickly gathers 12K to attack on King's Landing, Robb's quick gather on the other hand has 18K. Of course it may have taken Robb some more time but he also acted as fast as he could.

[Free Northman Reborn]

43 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Well, no way of that. Again, Ramsay  has been massing men, meaning these men aren't Dreadfort's garrison. Also we have a variety of garrison numbers, and through them we know even big castles such as Winterfell and Storm's End have 200-300 at most, with 200 being a very large garrison for small Riverrun. There's no way Dreadfort will have 300+ men as garrison when even Dragonstone which didn't have many men available to raise had 400 and that's with the wealth to back it up; they don't marry fat Freys for their weight in silver.

Corvo. I like your interest in this subject, and your continued enthusiasm to keep it fresh. But I must be frank: I don't like your occassional habit of simply ignoring direct quotes you don't like.

Ramsay expressly states that it is his father's garrison. You have no quote to counter or disprove that. It is a wartime garrison, given that it is a time of war, after all. Winterfell's wartime garrison would also be larger than its peacetime garrison, if Ned and Robb hadn't stripped it bare already. 

Same with the Umbers and Karstarks. And yet the Boltons are still able to have a garrison of 600, in addition to fieldhands and young boys that remain untapped in their hinterlands.

[Universal Sword Donor]

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Why are they there in the first place? If Tywin don't want useless mouths, how did they feed themselves for all those leagues? At their own expense?

Also from the same SSM:

Infantry outnumbered cavalry by a considerable margin, but for the most part we are talking about feudal levies and peasant militia, with little discipline and less training.

The same way camp followers like Meribald & friends or Mance attached themselves to trains. They saw a large group of men moving and attached themselves to it. If they are performing a duty in camp -- camp followers are going to match or exceed the fighting men -- then they are going to get fed. With respect to the quality of the infantry, yes it will vary. However the only time we see any Westerosi soldiers described in such poor terms, it's when they are being sent to their death/used as cannon fodder (Freys) or specifically situated to rout as quickly as possible. Given what we in combat from the rest of the infantry, the "Sweepings" of the west are both a unique group and not clear evidence that they are tapped out, especially since they raise another force. If the supposed 'poor' North can field 20K troops which all have the proper arms and armaments for legitimate men-at-arms who can march in formation under arrow fire, the 'notoriously disciplined', richer infantry under Tywin is hardly going to be in any worse shape. These armies are more or less modeled after War of the Roses armies. Even armies 50+ years before that had periodic musters where unsuitable men were sent home or not brought in the first place. Those men had to come from somewhere and given their place with the freeriders and Vale clansmen, it seems pretty obvious that they attached themselves to the Lannisters after Tywin mustered his forces. I cannot emphasize it enough that his undisciplined, poorly armed Valemen join after the army is mustered and are stuck in that group with mercenaries, who we know flocked to his banner and freeriders who attach themselves to moving armed retinues at least 3 times in AGoT.

For textual reference to many of the point above, I do enjoy using this thread:

 

[Corvo the Crow]

7 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Corvo. I like your interest in this subject, and your continued enthusiasm to keep it fresh. But I must be frank: I don't like your occassional habit of simply ignoring direct quotes you don't like.

Ramsay expressly states that it is his father's garrison. You have no quote to counter or disprove that. It is a wartime garrison, given that it is a time of war, after all. Winterfell's wartime garrison would also be larger than its peacetime garrison, if Ned and Robb hadn't stripped it bare already. 

Same with the Umbers and Karstarks. And yet the Boltons are still able to have a garrison of 600, in addition to fieldhands and young boys that remain untapped in their hinterlands.

I am not ignoring direct quotes I don't like, I am taking into account all the quotes that comes up to my mind and also what we know of the characters.

 

Quote

 

"Bolton's bastard is massing men at the Dreadfort," she warned them. "I hope he means to take them south to join his father at the Twins, but when I sent to ask his intent, he told me that no Bolton would be questioned by a woman. As if he were trueborn and had a right to that name."

"Lord Bolton has never acknowledged the boy, so far as I know," Ser Rodrik said. "I confess, I do not know him."

"Few do," she replied. "He lived with his mother until two years past, when young Domeric died and left Bolton without an heir. That was when he brought his bastard to the Dreadfort. The boy is a sly creature by all accounts, and he has a servant who is almost as cruel as he is. Reek, they call the man. It's said he never bathes. They hunt together, the Bastard and this Reek, and not for deer. I've heard tales, things I can scarce believe, even of a Bolton. And now that my lord husband and my sweet son have gone to the gods, the Bastard looks at my lands hungrily."

 

 

 

A sly bastard who has been living with his mother until two years ago is massing men. In other words; a deceitful bastard with no maester training is gathering men who aren't in the garrison. By all the garrisons we see, the 100-200 he promised must be the Garrison of Dreadfort so indeed he brought the garrison, but not only them but also the levy he's been massing.

 

 

Speaking of direct quotes, here are two of them, tell me,please, your opinion of them

Quote

"I have twice that number here," Renly said, "and this is only part of my strength. Mace Tyrell remains at Highgarden with another ten thousand, I have a strong garrison holding Storm's End, and soon enough the Dornishmen will join me with all their power. And never forget my brother Stannis, who holds Dragonstone and commands the lords of the narrow sea."

 

"Tyrell swords will make me king. Rowan and Tarly and Caron will make me king, with axe and mace and warhammer. Tarth arrows and Penrose lances, Fossoway, Cuy, Mullendore, Estermont, Selmy, Hightower, Oakheart, Crane, Caswell, Blackbar, Morrigen, Beesbury, Shermer, Dunn, Footly . . . even House Florent, your own wife's brothers and uncles, they will make me king. All the chivalry of the south rides with me, and that is the least part of my power. My foot is coming behind, a hundred thousand swords and spears and pikes. And you will destroy me? With what, pray? That paltry rabble I see there huddled under the castle walls? I'll call them five thousand and be generous, codfish lords and onion knights and sellswords. Half of them are like to come over to me before the battle starts. You have fewer than four hundred horse, my scouts tell me—freeriders in boiled leather who will not stand an instant against armored lances. I do not care how seasoned a warrior you think you are, Stannis, that host of yours won't survive the first charge of my vanguard."

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

On ‎12‎.‎01‎.‎2018 at 4:36 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

The same way camp followers like Meribald & friends or Mance attached themselves to trains. They saw a large group of men moving and attached themselves to it. If they are performing a duty in camp -- camp followers are going to match or exceed the fighting men -- then they are going to get fed. With respect to the quality of the infantry, yes it will vary. However the only time we see any Westerosi soldiers described in such poor terms, it's when they are being sent to their death/used as cannon fodder (Freys) or specifically situated to rout as quickly as possible. Given what we in combat from the rest of the infantry, the "Sweepings" of the west are both a unique group and not clear evidence that they are tapped out, especially since they raise another force. If the supposed 'poor' North can field 20K troops which all have the proper arms and armaments for legitimate men-at-arms who can march in formation under arrow fire, the 'notoriously disciplined', richer infantry under Tywin is hardly going to be in any worse shape. These armies are more or less modeled after War of the Roses armies. Even armies 50+ years before that had periodic musters where unsuitable men were sent home or not brought in the first place. Those men had to come from somewhere and given their place with the freeriders and Vale clansmen, it seems pretty obvious that they attached themselves to the Lannisters after Tywin mustered his forces. I cannot emphasize it enough that his undisciplined, poorly armed Valemen join after the army is mustered and are stuck in that group with mercenaries, who we know flocked to his banner and freeriders who attach themselves to moving armed retinues at least 3 times in AGoT.

For textual reference to many of the point above, I do enjoy using this thread:

 

All good and true, and I agree with them except:

These guys (some of them at the very least) aren't camp followers from their description: plough horses and scythes or ancient(from father) swords? Clearly these guys came "equipped" for battle therefore they are someone's levy. And some of them are from the well of city of Lannisport with a sword.

Vale clansmen get equipped by Tywin. If you'd ask why he does equip them but not the previous guys, I think it is because these are hard men from hard places, who know their way around a fight so unlike Lannisport boys with no fighting experience, equipping clansmen isn't a waste of good steel but making good use of it.

I'd think Tywin having these men in his army would be a clear indicator of he's out of "proper fighting men".

 

Having said these, it has occured to me it could also be just the cavalry force that has the sweepings; Tywin has the highest cavalry to foot ratio of any army we see and even Renly only has 10k knights in his 90k army (the other 10k is freeriders, hedge knights, light horse). He may have just drafted anyone with a horse to get this high number of cavalry.

 

I'll check that thread once I'm available, may even add that information here if the poster gives consent.

Finally, this is Tywin's cavalry, besides the 1000 (700) with Mountain.

Quote

His uncle would lead the center. Ser Kevan had raised his standards above the kingsroad. Quivers hanging from their belts, the foot archers arrayed themselves into three long lines, to east and west of the road, and stood calmly stringing their bows. Between them, pikemen formed squares; behind were rank on rank of men-at-arms with spear and sword and axe. Three hundred heavy horse surrounded Ser Kevan and the lords bannermen Lefford, Lydden, and Serrett with all their sworn retainers.

The right wing was all cavalry, some four thousand men, heavy with the weight of their armor. More than three quarters of the knights were there, massed together like a great steel fist. Ser Addam Marbrand had the command. Tyrion saw his banner unfurl as his standard-bearer shook it out; a burning tree, orange and smoke. Behind him flew Ser Flement's purple unicorn, the brindled boar of Crakehall, the bantam rooster of Swyft, and more.

His lord father took his place on the hill where he had slept. Around him, the reserve assembled; a huge force, half mounted and half foot, five thousand strong. Lord Tywin almost always chose to command the reserve; he would take the high ground and watch the battle unfold below him, committing his forces when and where they were needed most.

We have 7500 horse in this host of 7000. 300 Heavy horse with Kevan, unknown amount among Tywin's 2500 and again an unknown number  that amounts to more than three quarters of heavy horse among Marbrand's 4000. Gregor has a negligible amount in his 1000(700)

If all Marbrand's men were heavy horse(no reason to think otherwise), Tywin has 5300 heavy horse. This is at most. So he has at least 2200 light horse and such among his cavalry, which includes these guys.

[Corvo the Crow]

I was thinking,how many Sellswords could Tywin have, including those with Jaime?

Even Stannis may have hired up to 2K, not including Ship crews; Aegon had fewer than 1500, Stannis has 3000 vassals and mercenaries, Dragonstone has garrison of ~400. Included in the 3000-3500, Stannis has 100 knights among 400 horseman which are mostly freeriders.

 

Also a small update on Westerlands in first page.

[Corvo the Crow]

On some prices, may add them later to first post but for now, here they are.

This is Salladhor's Fleet

Quote

The port was as crowded as Davos had ever known it. Every dock teemed with sailors loading provisions, and every inn was packed with soldiers dicing or drinking or looking for a whore . . . a vain search, since Stannis permitted none on his island. Ships lined the strand; war galleys and fishing vessels, stout carracks and fat-bottomed cogs. The best berths had been taken by the largest vessels: Stannis's flagship Fury rocking between Lord Steffon and Stag of the Sea, Lord Velaryon's silver-hulled Pride of Driftmark and her three sisters, Lord Celtigar's ornate Red Claw, the ponderous Swordfish with her long iron prow. Out to sea at anchor rode Salladhor Saan's great Valyrian amongst the striped hulls of two dozen smaller Lysene galleys.

He has at least 25 ships, could be more if no others were able to leave Blackwater

Quote

Nine-and-twenty ships had set sail from the Wall. If half of them were still afloat, Davos would be shocked. Black skies, bitter winds, and lashing rains had hounded them all the way down the coast. The galleys Oledo and Old Mother's Son had been driven onto the rocks of Skagos, the isle of unicorns and cannibals where even the Blind Bastard had feared to land; the great cog Saathos Saan had foundered off the Grey Cliffs. "Stannis will be paying for them," Salladhor Saan had fumed. "He will be paying for them with good gold, every one." It was as if some angry god was exacting payment for their easy voyage north, when they had ridden a steady southerly from Dragonstone to the Wall. Another gale had ripped away the rigging of the Bountiful Harvest, forcing Salla to have her taken under tow. Ten leagues north of Widow's Watch the seas rose again, slamming the Harvest into one of the galleys towing her and sinking both. The rest of the Lysene fleet had been scattered across the narrow sea. Some would straggle into one port or another. Others would never be seen again.

 

How much does it cost to hire a fleet of 25(or a bit more) galleys, most of them small?

Quote

"I will remember." Salladhor Saan got to his feet. "My pardons. These grapes have given me a hunger, and dinner awaits on my Valyrian. Minced lamb with pepper and roasted gull stuffed with mushrooms and fennel and onion. Soon we shall eat together in King's Landing, yes? In the Red Keep we shall feast, while the dwarf sings us a jolly tune. When you speak to King Stannis, mention if you would that he will owe me another thirty thousand dragons come the black of the moon. He ought to have given those gods to me. They were too beautiful to burn, and might have brought a noble price in Pentos or Myr. Well, if he grants me Queen Cersei for a night I shall forgive him." The Lyseni clapped Davos on the back, and swaggered from the inn as if he owned it.

Thirty thousand dragons a month/moon's turn. So it's roughly 1000 dragons per ship per month, or slightly above it, for these smaller galleys.

 

On some equipment cost, sadly only shields are given a cost

Quote

The gatehouse opened on a market square, where those who had entered before her were unloading to hawk their turnips, yellow onions, and sacks of barleycorn. Others were selling arms and armor, and very cheaply to judge from the prices they shouted out as she rode by. The looters come with the carrion crows after every battle. Brienne walked her horse past mail shirts still caked with brown blood, dinted helms, notched longswords. There was clothing to be had as well: leather boots, fur cloaks, stained surcoats with suspicious rents. She knew many of the badges. The mailed fist, the moose, the white sun, the double-bladed axe, all those were northern sigils. Tarly men had perished here as well, though, and many from the stormlands. She saw red and green apples, a shield that bore the three thunderbolts of Leygood, horse trappings patterned with the ants of Ambrose. Lord Tarly's own striding huntsman appeared on many a badge and brooch and doublet. Friend or foe, the crows care not.

There were pine and linden shields to be had for pennies, but Brienne rode past them. She meant to keep the heavy oaken shield Jaime had given her, the one he'd borne himself from Harrenhal to King's Landing. A pine shield had its advantages. It was lighter, and therefore easier to bear, and the soft wood was more like to trap a foeman's axe or sword. But oak gave more protection, if you were strong enough to bear its weight.

 

Also this little gem, I have posted in the other thread and may have posted it here also but here it goes.

Quote

Dany would sooner have wept for her gold. The bribes she'd tendered to Mathos Mallarawan, Wendello Qar Deeth, and Egon Emeros the Exquisite might have bought her a ship, or hired a score of sellswords. "Suppose I sent Ser Jorah to demand the return of my gifts?" she asked.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

33 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

On some prices, may add them later to first post but for now, here they are.

This is Salladhor's Fleet

He has at least 25 ships, could be more if no others were able to leave Blackwater

 

How much does it cost to hire a fleet of 25(or a bit more) galleys, most of them small?

Thirty thousand dragons a month/moon's turn. So it's roughly 1000 dragons per ship per month, or slightly above it, for these smaller galleys.

 

On some equipment cost, sadly only shields are given a cost

 

Also this little gem, I have posted in the other thread and may have posted it here also but here it goes.

 

Interesting regarding the cost of ships. So it costs 30,000 dragons to hire 30 ships for a month. So can we use this to estimate the value of Manderly's fleet? He has built 46 ships by the time of Dance. He did so in a year, and his vaults are still overflowing with money. So how much does it cost to build a ship, if you can rent one for 1000 dragons a month?

 

[Corvo the Crow]

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Interesting regarding the cost of ships. So it costs 30,000 dragons to hire 30 ships for a month. So can we use this to estimate the value of Manderly's fleet? He has built 46 ships by the time of Dance. He did so in a year, and his vaults are still overflowing with money. So how much does it cost to build a ship, if you can rent one for 1000 dragons a month?

 

I don't think building a ship of that size itself would cost a huge amount; That 1000 dragons a month is for a ship filled with a trained crew which is part of a fleet, so probably also some degree of strategy/tactics among captains who know each other and serve under one say, captain admiral. So who knows, you can perhaps hire a single one with crew for 500-600?

Golden company has 10000 men, were all the equipment and individual fighting skills of the men equal, which would cost more, hiring the golden company or hiring a hundred individual companies with 100 men?

As for building, Dany equates hiring a score of sellswords for buying a ship. Since she has 100 or so in her Khalasar, it would be a ship capable of carrying 100 passengers. But of course we don't know what length these sellswords would be hired for.

Edit: There's also this, Manderly's case is a special one; perhaps it would have costed most lords an arm and a leg but Manderly gets his material from Umbers for free in return for providing them with ships and could also get his labor for cheap or even free (say he can exempt shipwrights from tax for sometime in return for their service).

Again an edit: There are these too, We see from Brienne that 300 dragons for a knight (and perhaps also heir) is a worthy ransom. From Freys we know 100 dragons is an acceptable ransom (BWB) for a regular family member and a small chest filled with silver is good for 4 family members some of which are knights (iirc). 30 Stags is 1 Dragon.

So 1000 Dragon a month for a ship doesn't seem so expensive in comparison, especially in a fleet and filled with trained sailors.