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Military Strengths and More!


Corvo the Crow

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One small thing; Crownland numbers seems to have had no increase during the hundred year period between Maegor's wars and Dance of the Dragons apart from the 2000 men of Gold Cloaks. 

Maegor first has 5000 men gathered in King's Landing against the Faith Militant. This number includes 800 sellswords Tyanna of Tower brings from across the sea. He later has near 4000 men that is gathered from a score of houses; Towers of Harrenhal and Crownland houses.

During the opening days of Dance we see 900 men dying in Rook's Rest, including the 100 garrison of castle and before that Duskendale is quickly taken and sacked.

Later Aemond summoned his banners and set out at the head of an army of 4000.

This 4000 may or may not include men from Duskendale and Rook's Rest lands as we see such a practice at least twice in the series; Hightowers taking their defeated enemies' troops to their army and Stannis taking Karstark troops to his army after arresting Arnolf and his kin.

We later see that there are a few hundred Gcloaks left in the KG, could be more than a thousand, or may be the entire 2000 is left in the city, can't know for sure but we see some hundreds.

 

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It is common belief in the forums that the North lacks men, as in the sense of "Real Men" who are not "Greenboys and Greybeards. This is a belief I have also shared due to the description of Umber men and Alys' portrayal of Karhold in ADWD and also to an extent Rodrik saying Robb took away the likely lads in AGOT. 

It appears this isn't the case. at least it's not the case with all houses.

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A Clash of Kings - Bran II

Leobald Tallhart had his turn the following day. He spoke of weather portents and the slack wits of smallfolk, and told how his nephew itched for battle. "Benfred has raised his own company of lances. Boys, none older than nineteen years, but every one thinks he's another young wolf. When I told them they were only young rabbits, they laughed at me. Now they call themselves the Wild Hares and gallop about the country with rabbitskins tied to the ends of their lances, singing songs of chivalry."

Bran thought that sounded grand. He remembered Benfred Tallhart, a big bluff loud boy who had often visited Winterfell with his father, Ser Helman, and had been friendly with Robb and with Theon Greyjoy. But Ser Rodrik was clearly displeased by what he heard. "If the king were in need of more men, he would send for them," he said. "Instruct your nephew that he is to remain at Torrhen's Square, as his lord father commanded."

Wild Hares are mostly boys, but Rodrik saying that Robb would send for men if he were in need shows us 

1. Robb didn't see a need for more men at the time.

2. There are still men he can call for if he needs.

So another myth busted or what?B)

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In the days that followed, ravens arrived from other lordly houses, bearing regrets. The bastard of the Dreadfort would not be joining them, the Mormonts and Karstarks had all gone south with Robb, Lord Locke was too old to dare the journey, Lady Flint was heavy with child, there was sickness at Widow's Watch. Finally all of the principal vassals of House Stark had been heard from save for Howland Reed the crannogman, who had not set foot outside his swamps for many a year, and the Cerwyns whose castle lay a half day's ride from Winterfell. Lord Cerwyn was a captive of the Lannisters, but his son, a lad of fourteen, arrived one bright, blustery morning at the head of two dozenlances. Bran was riding Dancer around the yard when they came through the gate. He trotted over to greet them. Cley Cerwyn had always been a friend to Bran and his brothers.

Cerwyns coming for the octoberfest or whatever it's name was. This may very well be a small portion of their lancers remaining at home since it's only a small escort for a lordling living just half a day's ride away. Roads are safe and the distance is short so no need for a big escort.

@Free Northman Reborn

This one I dug out just for you because we have discussed on horse numbers in Winterfell before.

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A small note on lands surrounding WF.

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"You know that old mill, sitting lonely on the Acorn Water? We stopped there when I was being dragged to Winterfell a captive. The miller's wife sold us hay for our horses while that old knight clucked over her brats. Might be the Starks are hiding there."

Theon knew the mill. He had even tumbled the miller's wife a time or two. There was nothing special about it, or her. "Why there? There are a dozen villages and holdfasts just as close."

Rodrik's nearest holdfasts may include more than this dozen.

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3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I

So another myth busted or what?B)

Maybe, maybe not. 

"If the king were in need of more men, he would send for them," he said.

Obviously it could very well mean what you are suggesting but alternatively it also sounds pretty close to an adult chiding a child for interfering with something he had no business in doing so.  I was often told "if they wanted your help they would have asked for it". 

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4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

1. Robb didn't see a need for more men at the time.

2. There are still men he can call for if he needs.

We knew this, since Rodrik literally collects more men after that statement of his, and then Stannis and Roose both gain more men well after that...

The question is the situation per TWoW, where Stannis has grabbed a couple thousand more and Roose has grabbed a couple thousand more and there's very little evidence for much greater capacity of mobilizable men of fighting age outside of Skagos (which is uncertain to mobilize at all for either side), White Harbor (per Lord Manderly), and Barrowton (per Lady Dustin, though the numbers available to her are up to debate). Presumably every castle seat has at least a couple fighting men on hand for their defenses, but those can't be really mobilized. And under the circumstances the North is approaching full logistical capacity, given the season and harsh weather.

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@Switzeran

(Don't you feel for those Swedes who so nearly kicked out 'my team' and spared me from looking more games with the family ;-)?)

I guess there might be some potential among the lesser prominent/known houses for those men who are willing to throw away their lives in winter, considering Robb started his war in summer when other types of men would have been drawn to his banner and would have been conscripted by him and his lords. The Ryswells and the Dustins and the Flints and Lockes and Tallharts might still have some of that sort left.

The Umbers and Karstarks clearly are down to these types of guys, and Stannis' clansmen are completely made up of such people, too (they are not all old and useless mouths, but they are willing to die 'for the Ned's little girl' all the same). And if we take that into account then the Boltons have already lost. Their men don't see his cause as a thing they want to die for. Even if the battle went very badly for Stannis, if you have men who simply refuse to break or yield no matter how the odds are, men who gladly die in battle, then your army has an insane advantage.

The really interesting question is how many men will survive the pointless battles between Stannis and the Boltons. If one of those becomes another Fishfeed then the loss of life would be considerable, playing right into the hands of the Others.

Right now Stannis and Roose combined have about 10,000 men, give or take. How many men will survive and be able to continue the fight after everything is over? Three quarters of them? Two thirds? Only half? Or even fewer?

One hopes the survivors will make their way to the Wall to lend the guys up there a hand. Any other conventional campaign in the middle of winter would be utter madness.

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2 hours ago, Switzeran said:

We knew this, since Rodrik literally collects more men after that statement of his, and then Stannis and Roose both gain more men well after that...

The question is the situation per TWoW, where Stannis has grabbed a couple thousand more and Roose has grabbed a couple thousand more and there's very little evidence for much greater capacity of mobilizable men of fighting age outside of Skagos (which is uncertain to mobilize at all for either side), White Harbor (per Lord Manderly), and Barrowton (per Lady Dustin, though the numbers available to her are up to debate). Presumably every castle seat has at least a couple fighting men on hand for their defenses, but those can't be really mobilized. And under the circumstances the North is approaching full logistical capacity, given the season and harsh weather.

The remaining Ironborn will likely fight for Stannis. As Stannis has both Greyjoys. 

Skagos has never appeared in the story. Ever. Rebellion during the Blackfrye Rebellion. Some NW men. That's it. Its comical they're going to show up riding on the back of unicorns with the 3 year old Rickon leading them into battle. 

The real fight will be between Roose and Ramsay. Roose's #1 problem has always been Ramsay. 

Winterfell is near ruin, piss poor state, and Wintertown collapsed.

The Northerners have no real loyalty to either Stannis or Roose. So Stannis liberation of the North will be sorta for nothing. If he thinks they're going to march with him down south to KL. 

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10 hours ago, Switzeran said:

We knew this, since Rodrik literally collects more men after that statement of his, and then Stannis and Roose both gain more men well after that...

The question is the situation per TWoW, where Stannis has grabbed a couple thousand more and Roose has grabbed a couple thousand more and there's very little evidence for much greater capacity of mobilizable men of fighting age outside of Skagos (which is uncertain to mobilize at all for either side), White Harbor (per Lord Manderly), and Barrowton (per Lady Dustin, though the numbers available to her are up to debate). Presumably every castle seat has at least a couple fighting men on hand for their defenses, but those can't be really mobilized. And under the circumstances the North is approaching full logistical capacity, given the season and harsh weather.

This topic has so much that can be said about it, and most already has been said. However, perhaps an interesting angle is to look at the 12000 men that gathered at Winterfell after Robb called the banners. We know these came from the Northern part of the North, with the southern lords joining along the way to Moat Cailin. And we know that they provided 12000 men, which Martin himself has indicated is of course not the full strength of this region, given the harvest and Robb's haste.

So, armed with new knowledge after the conclusion of Dance, we have a better understanding (though nowhere near complete) of what this region can actually put into the field, compared to the 12000 it provided to Robb at Winterfell. So let's do a sober assessment of the strength of the Northern part of the North, without any extravagance. Just a bare assessment of what their likely strengths are, given the context and knowledge we have to date.

House Karstark - has put around 3000 men into the field to date

Mountain Clans - have also raised around 3000 men

House Bolton - easily upwards of 3000 men, without tapping into their raw reserves the way Houses Umber and Karstark have, so a strength of 4000 men is very reasonable for them

House Umber - Their old men and boys represented 800 men in Dance, so it seems highly unlikely that their front line strength was less than 1500-2000. So altogether, a total strength of around 2500 seems quite conservative for them. Which is still lower than the Karstarks and Mountain Clans' 3000 each, from similar parts off the North (arguably much worse areas, in the case of the Mountain Clans)

House Cerwyn provided 300 men to Rodrik from their reserves, so a full strength of 1000 seems easily reached by them.

It seems difficult to imagine House Stark itself having less than 2000 men as their main strength, given that Rodrik was able to raise an additional 600 men from their immediate surroundings after their main forces had gone south. So around 2500 seems kind of a minimum strength if you put those two forces together.

Let's give Houses Tallhart, Hornwood, Glover and Mormont the minimum strength of 1000 each, thus putting them all at the bottom of the rung for principal Northern vassal houses.

That leaves Skagos, which given its size and the difficulty the Starks had in defeating their rebellion 100 years ago, makes a strength of around 2000 feel like an absolute minimum. One imagines that House Mormont at just 1000 men would not put up much of a fight if they chose to rebel against House Stark, from their island, so Skagos likely has to be significantly stronger than the other Northern Island vassals. In fact, 3000 seems more appropriate for Skagos, but let's stick to a conservative 2000.

So, given all of the above, we have from north to south:

Mormont - 1000

Mountain Clans - 3000

Umber - 2500

Karstark - 3000

Skagos - 2000

Bolton - 4000

Hornwood - 1000

Cerwyn - 1000

Stark - 2500

Tallhart - 1000

Glover - 1000

That's a total of 22000 men. Compared to the 12000 that Robb was able to raise from this area. And that's putting a number of Principal Stark vassals at the minimum 1000 level, which may well not be the case.

And this if from the Northern, colder, half of the North, excluding entirely Houses:

Flint of Widow's Watch

Slate of Blackpool

Locke of Oldcastle

Manderly of White Harbor

Dustin of Barrowton

Ryswell from the Rills

Reed from the Neck

Flint of Flints Finger

So that's already more men than the total army Robb took into the Riverlands, and that's just from the Northern part of the North.

 

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22 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

It is common belief in the forums that the North lacks men, as in the sense of "Real Men" who are not "Greenboys and Greybeards. This is a belief I have also shared due to the description of Umber men and Alys' portrayal of Karhold in ADWD and also to an extent Rodrik saying Robb took away the likely lads in AGOT. 

It appears this isn't the case. at least it's not the case with all houses.

Wild Hares are mostly boys, but Rodrik saying that Robb would send for men if he were in need shows us 

1. Robb didn't see a need for more men at the time.

2. There are still men he can call for if he needs.

So another myth busted or what?B)

Since then, Rodrick's army has been killed off, and Torrhen's square has fallen. I would guess that they don't have another army hiding in the woods, just waiting for Robb to command them. The North is empty.

 

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From a storytelling point of view this reckoning and speculating over numbers is completely pointless, not just because George didn't develop the world and its military capabilities before he started telling his story, but also because the general vibe one gets in ADwD more or less is that the North is done.

Even if counting farms and heads and helmets would result in the rock-tight result that 20,000 men were hiding in the bushes, the vibe we still get is that those men won't bestir themselves.

The place where the fate of the North is decided is right now, at Winterfell. Anyone who isn't at Winterfell (or with Stannis) right now is not going to play that much of a role.

There is no reason for anybody to hide. The battle lines are drawn.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

From a storytelling point of view this reckoning and speculating over numbers is completely pointless, not just because George didn't develop the world and its military capabilities before he started telling his story, but also because the general vibe one gets in ADwD more or less is that the North is done.

Even if counting farms and heads and helmets would result in the rock-tight result that 20,000 men were hiding in the bushes, the vibe we still get is that those men won't bestir themselves.

The place where the fate of the North is decided is right now, at Winterfell. Anyone who isn't at Winterfell (or with Stannis) right now is not going to play that much of a role.

There is no reason for anybody to hide. The battle lines are drawn.

I understand that is the narrative you wish to be true. Fact is though, the armed strength of Daenerys is very relevant to the story. The remaining strength of the Lannisters is relevant to the story. So is the strength of Euron, Aegon,the Stormlands, Dorne and the Reach. And so too the strength of the Vale and the remaining strength of the Riverlands.

The same applies to the North. But you prefer a narrative where the North is an irrelevance going forward, other than being a backdrop to southron rescuers saving it from the Others while it has no agency to influence its own future.

That would relegate it to pretty much the same importance as the wildlings, about whom Mellisandre predicted that  they are a people with no future, pretty much limited to being refugees while stronger southron powers determine the fate of the world.

That is not the narrative I read George as writing, not after spending so much effort on the North and its political struggles to date.

The North will be a player as much as any other region in the conflicts to come.

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25 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I understand that is the narrative you wish to be true. Fact is though, the armed strength of Daenerys is very relevant to the story. The remaining strength of the Lannisters is relevant to the story. So is the strength of Euron, Aegon,the Stormlands, Dorne and the Reach. And so too the strength of the Vale and the remaining strength of the Riverlands.

But the author doesn't care about those numbers, and what he tells us about military stuff and the like is usually preliminary, contradictory, and not supposed to be used to deduce the outcome of the war. I mean, didn't you learn the lesson he taught us when he killed Renly and Robb?

Where do you see George being obsessed with numbers and potential strength of regions and their lords? He pretty much never does this. 

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The same applies to the North. But you prefer a narrative where the North is an irrelevance going forward, other than being a backdrop to southron rescuers saving it from the Others while it has no agency to influence its own future.

The North isn't a protagonist in this story, and neither are the Northmen. There are a couple of very crucial characters in the North who are very relevant to the plot but not 'the North' as such. This isn't a story about 'nations' and peoples.

I mean, do you think it is a coincidence that no Northern POV is going to cover the Bolton-Stannis battle? Or that Melisandre is going to take over for Jon Snow as POV up at the Wall?

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That would relegate it to pretty much the same importance as the wildlings, about whom Mellisandre predicted that  they are a people with no future, pretty much limited to being refugees while stronger southron powers determine the fate of the world.

Don't create a dichotomy where there is none. The wildlings aren't part of the Seven Kingdoms, but the Northmen are. And everybody is in camp 'mankind' in the fight against the Others.

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That is not the narrative I read George as writing, not after spending so much effort on the North and its political struggles to date.

George doesn't spend a lot of pages on 'the North and its political struggles' than he spends on other petty struggles. His focus is on characters, not political entities... The North isn't even a region that has been particularly developed. We basically know Winterfell, Castle Black, the Kingsroad, and a have seen bits and pieces of Barrowton, the Dreadfort, and Moat Cailin. But that's it. When compared to what we know about King's Landing, the Riverlands and many of its castles, the Vale, or even the Iron Islands and Dorne, the North is really not covered in much detail.

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The North will be a player as much as any other region in the conflicts to come.

Nope, it won't. Because there is no reason to believe that 'any other region' is going to get an equal share in the conflicts, either.

This is not a strategy game with seven factions which are all equally important/relevant, it is a series of novels. And the next two stages of the story are going to leave the petty game of thrones period of the story behind.

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13 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 And we know that they provided 12000 men, which Martin himself has indicated is of course not the full strength of this region, given the harvest and Robb's haste.

GRRM has not once said that about Robb's host. He was once asked about the strength of the realms and pointed out

but the north is much bigger, so it takes longer for an army to gather. And life is harsher there as well, so lords and smallfolk both need to think carefully before beating those plowshares into swords.

 

Now given what we are told about the harvests not being fully gathered in the Umber and Karstark lands it seems apparent, at the very least, some of the lords of the north did choose to beat those plowhares into swords. 

13 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So that's already more men than the total army Robb took into the Riverlands, and that's just from the Northern part of the North.

I'm really not sure where you are going with this post, I don't think anyone was under the impression that the North was devoid of soldiers anymore than the Reach was when the majority of its army was in the Crownlands or the Westerlands when Tywin had invaded the Riverlands. It goes without saying that some soldiers have stayed behind, it would be enormously impractical to take everyone. 

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But the author doesn't care about those numbers, and what he tells us about military stuff and the like is usually preliminary, contradictory, and not supposed to be used to deduce the outcome of the war. I mean, didn't you learn the lesson he taught us when he killed Renly and Robb?

Where do you see George being obsessed with numbers and potential strength of regions and their lords? He pretty much never does this. 

The North isn't a protagonist in this story, and neither are the Northmen. There are a couple of very crucial characters in the North who are very relevant to the plot but not 'the North' as such. This isn't a story about 'nations' and peoples.

I mean, do you think it is a coincidence that no Northern POV is going to cover the Bolton-Stannis battle? Or that Melisandre is going to take over for Jon Snow as POV up at the Wall?

Don't create a dichotomy where there is none. The wildlings aren't part of the Seven Kingdoms, but the Northmen are. And everybody is in camp 'mankind' in the fight against the Others.

George doesn't spend a lot of pages on 'the North and its political struggles' than he spends on other petty struggles. His focus is on characters, not political entities... The North isn't even a region that has been particularly developed. We basically know Winterfell, Castle Black, the Kingsroad, and a have seen bits and pieces of Barrowton, the Dreadfort, and Moat Cailin. But that's it. When compared to what we know about King's Landing, the Riverlands and many of its castles, the Vale, or even the Iron Islands and Dorne, the North is really not covered in much detail.

Nope, it won't. Because there is no reason to believe that 'any other region' is going to get an equal share in the conflicts, either.

This is not a strategy game with seven factions which are all equally important/relevant, it is a series of novels. And the next two stages of the story are going to leave the petty game of thrones period of the story behind.

Some strawman arguments again about strategy games and whatnot.

The fact is, factional wars are continuing until the very end. The Euron-Aegon-Tyrell- Lannister conflict is only just beginning, and will engulf all of the South. The Vale strength has been conserved for a plot reason, and then Daenerys’s invasion will start another round of conflict. The North will clearly play a role in this to the end, and if there is to be some sort of grand bargain to bring everyone together for the final war against the Others, then the North is going to need more than Jon’s long eyelashes and striking personality to make a deal with Daenerys and the other factions on a level footing.

The North won’t engage in further southron campaigns, but they need to be a credible presence at the negotiating table rather than beggars with no manpower or resources, coming before Daenerys hat in hand.

I expect them to have 15k-20k men at that point, under a united Stark leadership, which will actually put them on a rather level footing with whats left in most southron kingdoms after the impending Euron-Aegon-Daenerys-Grey Plague cataclysm.

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4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Some strawman arguments again about strategy games and whatnot.

The way you argue one gets the impression that you think the story works somewhat along those lines, treating those regions as completely separate entities with equal value and importance. That is not the case.

George's focus is on the Stark heroes, not the North as such.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The fact is, factional wars are continuing until the very end. The Euron-Aegon-Tyrell- Lannister conflict is only just beginning, and will engulf all of the South. The Vale strength has been conserved for a plot reason, and then Daenerys’s invasion will start another round of conflict.

Great that you know the outcome of the story. I don't. There is a good chance that conflict is going to continue, but we have no idea about the casualties, etc., not whether such a war will engulf 'all the South'. Right now I don't see how any war is going to engulf either Gulltown or Lannisport, for instance.

You are obsessed with numbers on paper, but George knows that soldiers actually have to march on the battlefield and fight for the potential of numbers to play out, and there are tons of reasons why such a potential might not be realized other than, you know, all the men are killed.

If there were another 20,000 fighting men in the North - which there aren't - then those men don't have to die to explain why they don't march to battle - they might just be unwilling to fight, lack the leaders to muster them, it might take too much time, they might lack the provisions to get where they are supposed to fight in time, etc.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The North will clearly play a role in this to the end, and if there is to be some sort of grand bargain to bring everyone together for the final war against the Others, then the North is going to need more than Jon’s long eyelashes and striking personality to make a deal with Daenerys and the other factions on a level footing.

LOL, what? Even if 'the North' had another 50,000 men, who would care about those men if they are thousands of leagues away in the North? What kind of ridiculous bargaining position are you trying to sell us here? Something like that?

'We are all threatened by undead monster and ice demons. I have a strong army up here defending the Wall. If you don't meet my demands I'll take all those men I need to defend my northern borders and march down to crush you. After all, I don't care about the survival of mankind or the well-being of my people, all I care about is showing that I am a moron!'

From any sane point of view our heroes in the North will realize that they should put their petty ambitions and desire for vengeance, etc. behind them if they want to live through winter and defend the Wall/defeat the Others. There will be a point when pretty much anyone up there will realize that the Others are a real threat.

It might even be that North returns into the fold and renews his fealty to the Iron Throne before Dany even arrives - in a (perhaps futile?) attempt to convince Aegon or Euron or whoever sits the Iron Throne that the Others are a real threat and they are in desperate need of help at the Wall.

That way they could get involved in the struggles of the Second Dance - although not necessarily to the same degree as other regions.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The North won’t engage in further southron campaigns, but they need to be a credible presence at the negotiating table rather than beggars with no manpower or resources, coming before Daenerys hat in hand.

Quite honestly, what is the reason for this aside from your wish that this may not be so? And why are you talking about the North here, and not - which is much more likely - Jon Snow (or some other of our Stark heroes)? What do you think they will be negotiating about in the middle of winter when the survival of mankind is at stake? Who takes precedence at the high table of the zombies? Who of them is first going to get unnatural blue eyes?

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I expect them to have 15k-20k men at that point, under a united Stark leadership, which will actually put them on a rather level footing with whats left in most southron kingdoms after the impending Euron-Aegon-Daenerys-Grey Plague cataclysm.

Again, what would be the point of that, either than wish-fulfilling on your part? How is a position of strength going to help you in a scenario when the common enemy is so much stronger than you and the person(s) you are treating with? And how would the strength you have help you against the people you are treating with if you actually need them at your northern border?

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6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

The North won’t engage in further southron campaigns, but they need to be a credible presence at the negotiating table rather than beggars with no manpower or resources, coming before Daenerys hat in hand.

Why? Dany, or whoever is in charge of the realm is hardly going to say no when they hear of the real threat from beyond the Wall. 

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I expect them to have 15k-20k men at that point, under a united Stark leadership,

There may well be that many soldiers in the North at that point as Stannis is hiring a new sellsword army, but it seems, from what we know, that a 15-20k northern army - especially after the battle of ice, is not something that is going to be possible. 

Again, I have to ask Why? Why does it matter what realm the army in the north is from? 

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