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Military Strengths and More!


Corvo the Crow

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14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Another imprecise number we get is Stannis's "5000" in Winds.

Jon expects him to get between 2000 and 3000 from the Mountain Clans. Let's assume the middle of those two figures, at 2500. He supposedly had around 1300 southroners with him, unless some stayed with the queen at the Wall, reducing his number further. Let's go with 1300 to start with.

That takes his numbers up to around 3800.

Then we know the Mormonts join him with an unknown number of men, let's say that takes him to 4000.

Then he says men are streaming to him from the Wolfswood, Hornwood and other lands.

The interesting part is that he says he has 5000 men by that point, and more are coming in every day. My question is where that number topped out at. Did it get to 6000, or did it stop at 5500, for example?

And then it started dropping, thanks to the cold count. But we don't really have a cold count number, except that it is primarily southroners who are dying, and even then they seem to count in the tens, maybe the low hundreds, rather than a mass die off. We don't really know how many he is left with at the end, and his 5,000 may in fact be 6,000 for all we know, if the numbers kept growing well beyond the 5,000 point that he reported to Jon.

And then the 400 Karstarks also arrive, of course, which are not included in his numbers, for obvious reasons.

 

He actually had fewer than 1300 even at the start. He leaves a skeleton garrison at DS, and he loses men during the fight; a mammoth shatters one of his three cavalry columns so there should be casualties there. After the battle, he still has more than a thousand men according to Sam though, but he leaves some men back, especially the wounded and he left a small number of men along with Selys at the east watch too. I don't think Stannis left Castle Black with more than 1100 men.

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1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

In all my searches, I've found only once that the numbers are rounded down and it's rounded down part is not even 1/1000 of the main number.

Unless you can point towards some other rounded down numbers like this, then the trend must be rounding the numbers up, not down.

He was not rounding numbers up he was trying to cow Oberyn by impressing him, you have to see the statement in the context of the rest of the text.

Also rounding up 4400 it would make more sense to say "about four and a half thousand" because then you would be close instead of making up some 600 men you do not have.

Tyrion is exaggerating the numbers here, there is no and if or but's to be had there.

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3 hours ago, direpupy said:

He was not rounding numbers up he was trying to cow Oberyn by impressing him, you have to see the statement in the context of the rest of the text.

Also rounding up 4400 it would make more sense to say "about four and a half thousand" because then you would be close instead of making up some 600 men you do not have.

Tyrion is exaggerating the numbers here, there is no and if or but's to be had there.

Even if we agree on this, this is just one number we can cross off of the list of rounded up numbers and not an addition to rounded down one.

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15 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Even if we agree on this, this is just one number we can cross off of the list of rounded up numbers and not an addition to rounded down one.

I am not disputing that numbers get rounded up, i never did. That is just what you somehow pulled out of the conversation much to my surprise.

What i was disputing was the idea that Tyrions numbers where actual numbers that can be used to calculate the remaining strength of the Lannisters, Tyrells and the city watch of Kingslanding. Not just because he exaggerates the numbers but also because part of the men he counts as roses are actually from the Stormlands and therefore not necessarily loyal to either the Lannisters or the Tyrells. 

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1 minute ago, direpupy said:

I am not disputing that numbers get rounded up, i never did. That is just what you somehow pulled out of the conversation much to my surprise.

What i was disputing was the idea that Tyrions numbers where actual numbers that can be used to calculate the remaining strength of the Lannisters, Tyrells and the city watch of Kingslanding. Not just because he exaggerates the numbers but also because part of the men he counts as roses are actually from the Stormlands and therefore not necessarily loyal to either the Lannisters or the Tyrells. 

To be clear, I didn't pull it from Tyrion numers, but from the part you say Robb may have above 19500.

It was never my intention to dispute the second part, except for gold cloak numbers being just exaggeration for intimidation. I myself believe "roses" include Stormlanders as Brienne sees their dead near Duskendale. These wouldn't be the stormlander infantry though, as Randyll, whose own wife is a Florent, put many to the sword, especially Florent men. I can't see him sparing stormlanders when he kills Florent men just for Stannis being goodkin with them even though he is also related to them.

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21 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

To be clear, I didn't pull it from Tyrion numers, but from the part you say Robb may have above 19500.

It was never my intention to dispute the second part, except for gold cloak numbers being just exaggeration for intimidation. I myself believe "roses" include Stormlanders as Brienne sees their dead near Duskendale. These wouldn't be the stormlander infantry though, as Randyll, whose own wife is a Florent, put many to the sword, especially Florent men. I can't see him sparing stormlanders when he kills Florent men just for Stannis being goodkin with them even though he is also related to them.

There is no reason to believe that Robb's numbers were lower than 19500, rather than higher. We simply don't have enough information to know either way.

We don't know if his 18,000 claim to Catelyn referred to an actual number of 17500, or 18500, for example. So therefore we don't know how close the Manderly's 1500 brought them to the 20k mark. The best estimate in this case is to assume a total of 19500.

This ties in both with Theon's statement in Dance:

"Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter"

and George's own direct quote, which mirrors Theon almost exactly:

"I mean, he had twenty thousand guys or near about when he marched south, I couldn't characterize them all. I have always figured that there are dozens of minor lords and hundreds of knights and such in all these armies. Simply because someone isn't mentioned doesn't mean they are not there". 

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31 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

To be clear, I didn't pull it from Tyrion numers, but from the part you say Robb may have above 19500.

And why not? you said he most likely had 19000 men give or take, and i said that you should not assume a lower number it could very well be 19600 for all we know.  both would still rounded up to near 20000 as we see happen latter in the books multiple times.

23 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Some other examples similar to this would be

Theon saying "Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter" But we as the readers know at best Robb had 19500 men when all his strength gathered at MC. 19000, give or take a couple hundred would be the real number I think because Robb's 18000 could very well be a little lower than that and Manderly numbers aren't 1500 at the first place, but "near fifteen hundred" We know from Stannis' force that thirteen hundred can very well be "some fifteen hundred"

You assume here that Robb's 18000 could be lower but as i said it could very well be higher to, and i know that numbers get rounded up most of the time but we do not know if that is the case here, thus my cautioning against assuming a lower number.

22 hours ago, direpupy said:

Robb's numbers could also very well be higher so i would not make the assumption that is was lower then 19500 so easily.

As you can see all i am saying here is that you should not put the number lower then 19500 because we do not know if the 18000 is a exact number a higher number or a lower number.

32 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

It was never my intention to dispute the second part, except for gold cloak numbers being just exaggeration for intimidation. I myself believe "roses" include Stormlanders as Brienne sees their dead near Duskendale. These wouldn't be the stormlander infantry though, as Randyll, whose own wife is a Florent, put many to the sword, especially Florent men. I can't see him sparing stormlanders when he kills Florent men just for Stannis being goodkin with them even though he is also related to them.

I am glad we agree on the Stormlanders being counted as roses.

As to the Goldcloaks why would Tyrion making there number higher be any different from his statements about the roses and his fathers army?

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14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

There is no reason to believe that Robb's numbers were lower than 19500, rather than higher. We simply don't have enough information to know either way.

We don't know if his 18,000 claim to Catelyn referred to an actual number of 17500, or 18500, for example. So therefore we don't know how close the Manderly's 1500 brought them to the 20k mark. The best estimate in this case is to assume a total of 19500.

This ties in both with Theon's statement in Dance:

"Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter"

and George's own direct quote, which mirrors Theon almost exactly:

"I mean, he had twenty thousand guys or near about when he marched south, I couldn't characterize them all. I have always figured that there are dozens of minor lords and hundreds of knights and such in all these armies. Simply because someone isn't mentioned doesn't mean they are not there". 

There  are no instances of numbers rounded down, not that I could find anyway. So his original 18000 was either 18000, or a little lower. Manderly's 1500 was certainly lower, be it 1499 men or 1350. So even with a full 18000, Robb doesn't reach 19500 when Manderlys are added.

5 minutes ago, direpupy said:

And why not? you said he most likely had 19000 men give or take, and i said that you should not assume a lower number it could very well be 19600 for all we know.  both would still rounded up to near 20000 as we see happen latter in the books multiple times.

You assume here that Robb's 18000 could be lower but as i said it could very well be higher to, and i know that numbers get rounded up most of the time but we do not know if that is the case here, thus my cautioning against assuming a lower number.

As you can see all i am saying here is that you should not put the number lower then 19500 because we do not know if the 18000 is a exact number a higher number or a lower number.

I am glad we agree on the Stormlanders being counted as roses.

As to the Goldcloaks why would Tyrion making there number higher be any different from his statements about the roses and his fathers army?

Because he knows their exact numbers. He doesn't know how many Roses or Lannisters are left and he even admits it himself, while still intimidating Oberyn saying there are still many left though.

 

 
Quote

 

"Not only do I see it, I believe I smell it now."
"Then take a good sniff, my lord. Fill up your nose. Half a million people stink more than three hundred, you'll find. Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of them. My father's own sworn swords must account for another twenty thousand. And then there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don't they? Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can't really say how many are left, but there's more than I care to count, anyway."

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

There  are no instances of numbers rounded down, not that I could find anyway. So his original 18000 was either 18000, or a little lower. Manderly's 1500 was certainly lower, be it 1499 men or 1350. So even with a full 18000, Robb doesn't reach 19500 when Manderlys are added.

Because he knows their exact numbers. He doesn't know how many Roses or Lannisters are left and he even admits it himself, while still intimidating Oberyn saying there are still many left though.

 

 
 

 

Corvo your basic assumption is simply unfounded in this case. It seems fairly straightforward that whenever there is a reference to "almost", or "near" or "close to", then a number is usually rounded up.

But in the absence of such a descriptive term, there is simply not an argument to be made that a number is rounded up. What if Robb had 18200 or 18300 men, for example. Why would he not call that eighteen thousand?

Your central argument that numbers are always rounded up simply does not hold water. 

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5 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Corvo your basic assumption is simply unfounded in this case. It seems fairly straightforward that whenever there is a reference to "almost", or "near" or "close to", then a number is usually rounded up.

But in the absence of such a descriptive term, there is simply not an argument to be made that a number is rounded up. What if Robb had 18200 or 18300 men, for example. Why would he not call that eighteen thousand?

Your central argument that numbers are always rounded up simply does not hold water. 

He could say over eighteen thousand, as he did with over twelve thousand for MC.

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14 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Because he knows their exact numbers. He doesn't know how many Roses or Lannisters are left and he even admits it himself, while still intimidating Oberyn saying there are still many left though.

Then why not give there exact number? I will tell you why, he is exaggerating them on purpose.

15 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

There  are no instances of numbers rounded down, not that I could find anyway. So his original 18000 was either 18000, or a little lower. Manderly's 1500 was certainly lower, be it 1499 men or 1350. So even with a full 18000, Robb doesn't reach 19500 when Manderlys are added.

I could argue that just because you can not find them it does not mean they are not there, but i could not find them either so i concede this point to you. The number is indeed probably lower. But by how much we do not know so i still put it above 19000.

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1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

He could say over eighteen thousand, as he did with over twelve thousand for MC.

Sorry, but I don't agree with this.

Because Robb didn't say "over eighteen thousand" you state that he either had less than eighteen thousand, or eighteen thousand exactly.

Out of interest, at what point do you believe he would start saying he has "over" eighteen thousand? If he has eighteen thousand and one men? Eighteen thousand and ten? Eighteen thousand one hundred?

This "reading between the lines" is without basis.

All we can go on is that he had approximately eighteen thousand men. But it could be a few hundred above eighteen thousand as easily as a few hundred below eighteen thousand.

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5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Sorry, but I don't agree with this.

Because Robb didn't say "over eighteen thousand" you state that he either had less than eighteen thousand, or eighteen thousand exactly.

Out of interest, at what point do you believe he would start saying he has "over" eighteen thousand? If he has eighteen thousand and one men? Eighteen thousand and ten? Eighteen thousand one hundred?

This "reading between the lines" is without basis.

All we can go on is that he had approximately eighteen thousand men. But it could be a few hundred above eighteen thousand as easily as a few hundred below eighteen thousand.

What I said to Direpuppy; We have no example of numbers rounded down, but plenty of round ups. If you can find any round downs in army numbers, then I'll be convinced.

 

Whatever number you think the quotes below suggest is your answer for "over number"

 

DS

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"Power?" The king snorted. "I have thirteen hundred men on Dragonstone, another three hundred at Storm's End." His hand swept over the Painted Table. "The rest of Westeros is in the hands of my foes. I have no fleet but Salladhor Saan's. No coin to hire sellswords. No prospect of plunder or glory to lure freeriders to my cause."

As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne's fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone. Lord Stannis appeared to have left only a small garrison behind him when he sailed north, so two thousand men would be more than sufficient, Cersei had judged.

 

Battle for the Wall

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"The battle?" He watched the rangers scatter before Harma's bloody dog's head. The raiders screamed and hacked and chased the men in black back into the trees. But there were more men coming from the wood, a column of horse. Knights on heavy horse, Jon saw. Harma had to regroup and wheel to meet them, but half of her men had raced too far ahead.

"The birth!" Val was shouting at him.

Trumpets were blowing all around, loud and brazen. The wildlings have no trumpets, only warhorns. They knew that as well as he did; the sound sent free folk running in confusion, some toward the fighting, others away. A mammoth was stomping through a flock of sheep that three men were trying to herd off west. The drums were beating as the wildlings ran to form squares and lines, but they were too late, too disorganized, too slow. The enemy was emerging from the forest, from the east, the northeast, the north; three great columns of heavy horse, all dark glinting steel and bright wool surcoats. Not the men of Eastwatch, those had been no more than a line of scouts. An army. The king? Jon was as confused as the wildlings. Could Robb have returned? Had the boy on the Iron Throne finally bestirred himself? "You best get back inside the tent," he told Val.
Across the field one column had washed over Harma Dogshead. Another smashed into the flank of Tormund's spearmen as he and his sons desperately tried to turn them. The giants were climbing onto their mammoths, though, and the knights on their barded horses did not like that at all; he could see how the coursers and destriers screamed and scattered at the sight of those lumbering mountains. But there was fear on the wildling side as well, hundreds of women and children rushing away from the battle, some of them blundering right under the hooves of garrons. He saw an old woman's dog cart veer into the path of three chariots, to send them crashing into each other.
"Gods," Val whispered, "gods, why are they doing this?"
"Go inside the tent and stay with Dalla. It's not safe out here." It wouldn't be a great deal safer inside, but she didn't need to hear that.
"I need to find the midwife," Val said.
"You're the midwife. I'll stay here until Mance comes back." He had lost sight of Mance but now he found him again, cutting his way through a knot of mounted men. The mammoths had shattered the center column, but the other two were closing like pincers. On the eastern edge of the camps, some archers were loosing fire arrows at the tents. He saw a mammoth pluck a knight from his saddle and fling him forty feet with a flick of its trunk. Wildlings streamed past, women and children running from the battle, some with men hurrying them along. A few of them gave Jon dark looks but Longclaw was in his hand, and no one troubled him. Even Varamyr fled, crawling off on his hands and knees.
More and more men were pouring from the trees, not only knights now but freeriders and mounted bowmen and men-at-arms in jacks and kettle helms, dozens of men, hundreds of men. A blaze of banners flew above them. The wind was whipping them too wildly for Jon to see the sigils, but he glimpsed a seahorse, a field of birds, a ring of flowers. And yellow, so much yellow, yellow banners with a red device, whose arms were those?

After the Battle

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Nothing that his brothers told him prepared him for what he found at Castle Black, however. The common hall had burned to the ground and the great wooden stair was a mound of broken ice and scorched timbers. Donal Noye was dead, along with Rast, Deaf Dick, Red Alyn, and so many more, yet the castle was more crowded than Sam had ever seen; not with black brothers, but with the king's soldiers, more than a thousand of them. There was a king in the King's Tower for the first time in living memory, and banners flew from the Lance, Hardin's Tower, the Grey Keep, the Shieldhall, and other buildings that had stood empty and abandoned for long years. "The big one, the gold with the black stag, that's the royal standard of House Baratheon," he told Gilly, who had never seen banners before. "The fox-and-flowers is House Florent. The turtle is Estermont, the swordfish is Bar Emmon, and the crossed trumpets are for Wensington."

 

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On 05/12/2017 at 1:24 PM, direpupy said:

He was not rounding numbers up he was trying to cow Oberyn by impressing him, you have to see the statement in the context of the rest of the text.

Except the men are right in front of him and Oberyn and his 300 party are more than capable of counting soldiers if a Willdling with Tyrion was. Boasting about armies you potentially have is one thing, doing so about those right infront of you is easily called out. Plus Tyrion does not have to boast of numbers, whether it is a total of 50k or 80k this is still the biggest military power in the realm by some distance. 

 

The evidence seems to show that Tyrion is simply rounding up rather than exagerating as we know that his claim of ear 5,000 is true as a council meeting shows there are 4,400. 

 

 

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A small thing, not directly related to the thread but ı'm posting it here it as I found it interesting and wealth has it's importance on military strength.

 

Quote
Lord Corlys traveled widely, both to the south and to the north, and once sought for a rumored passage around the top of Westeros—though he turned back his ship, the Ice Wolf, when he found only frozen seas and giant icebergs. But his greatest voyages were upon the Sea Snake, by which name he would later be known. Many ships of Westeros had sailed as far as Qarth to trade for spices and silk, but he dared to go farther, reaching the fabled lands of Yi Ti and Leng, whose wealth doubled that of House Velaryon in a single voyage.
Nine great voyages were made upon the Sea Snake, and on the last, Corlys filled the ship's hold with gold and bought twenty more ships at Qarth, loading them with spices, elephants, and the finest silk. Some were lost, and the elephants died at sea, according to Maester Mathis's The Nine Voyages, but the wealth that remained made House Velaryon the richest in the realm—richer even than the Lannisters and Hightowers, for a time.
Corlys Velaryon became a lord after his grandsire's death and used his wealth to raise a new seat, High Tide, to replace the damp, cramped castle Driftmark and house the ancient Driftwood Throne—the high seat of the Velaryons, which legend claims was given to them by the Merling King to conclude a pact. So much trade came to flow to and from Driftmark that the towns of Hull and Spicetown sprang up, becoming the chief ports of trade in Blackwater Bay for a time, surpassing even King's Landing.

A single voyage was enough to double the wealth of the house. Eight voyages are enough to buy twenty ships and fill them with expensive goods, and even after losses on this ninth voyage, it made House Velaryon rich enough to raise a new castle and richer than Lannisters and Hightowers.

Westerosi nobility shun marriages to commoners but it's no wonder when times are hard they marry to the daughters of rich merchants and demand excessive dowrys from them. Some of the richer merchants are probably much more wealthy than most of the great houses.

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5 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

A small thing, not directly related to the thread but ı'm posting it here it as I found it interesting and wealth has it's importance on military strength.

 

A single voyage was enough to double the wealth of the house.

Westerosi nobility shun marriages to commoners but it's no wonder when times are hard they marry to the daughters of rich merchants and demand excessive dowrys for them. Some of the richer merchants are probably much more wealthy than most of the great houses.

See, it is quotes such as this one that raises doubts about Martin's consistency as far as numbers are concerned. I think many times he chucks logic aside for the sake of a dramatic statement, such as the one that House Velaryon was able to exceed House Lannister's wealth simply through 9 voyages to Yi Ti and back.

I mean, how can this possibly be consistent with the fact that the relatively small part of House Lannister's wealth that was spent on buying a Valyrian sword had such a huge impact on a Valyrian dragonlord's fortunes, that he could use that money to upset the entire balance of power in the Valyrian Freehold and ultimately cause the Doom itself?

Why not just send a couple of ships between Yi-Ti and Westeros, and supposedly "gain more wealth than House Lannister has accumulated in all of its history?" Come on. This is utter nonsense.

But it sounds nice and dramatic, doesn't it. Just like the Hound's 10,000 gold dragons or whatever it was, that he won in the tourney and carried away on his horse like it all fit into a little saddlebag.

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3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

See, it is quotes such as this one that raises doubts about Martin's consistency as far as numbers are concerned. I think many times he chucks logic aside for the sake of a dramatic statement, such as the one that House Velaryon was able to exceed House Lannister's wealth simply through 9 voyages to Yi Ti and back.

I mean, how can this possibly be consistent with the fact that the relatively small part of House Lannister's wealth that was spent on buying a Valyrian sword had such a huge impact on a Valyrian dragonlord's fortunes, that he could use that money to upset the entire balance of power in the Valyrian Freehold and ultimately cause the Doom itself?

Why not just send a couple of ships between Yi-Ti and Westeros, and supposedly "gain more wealth than House Lannister has accumulated in all of its history?" Come on. This is utter nonsense.

But it sounds nice and dramatic, doesn't it. Just like the Hound's 10,000 gold dragons or whatever it was, that he won in the tourney and carried away on his horse like it all fit into a little saddlebag.

I agree with the point of your post, but not with the examples given.

I wouldn't say it is inconsistent judging solely by this; we don't see the whole picture and since this is fiction he can make up as he likes. Perhaps Yi Tish goods are so rare, even non existent, in Westerosi market they fetch many times more their value or what they'd be priced in Qarth for example.

Hound carrying 10000 dragons is real fun to think about. But perhaps there are coins worth of more value? Perhaps a dragon with 50 as a value on it? I doubt it since it's the worth of the metal that gives the value, so it needs to be as heavy as 50 dragons but still, it could be.

Now that I think about, Freys came with a chest of gold to ransom 6 members of their family. From Brienne we know a ransom value, she is both a Knight and the sole heir to a great lord, Evenstar offers 300 dragons for her ransom. Jaime says it's a fair ransom for a Knight.

 

Don't take it a s a reply to this post, but I've always wondered about the Valyrian sword deal; it is said Valyrian Swords are very expensive, and Lannisters paid enough for theirs to raise an army. But what is an army, in this feudal setting? Is it Robb's 20k or Tywin's 30k+? Perhaps 50k+ in fields of fire near 100k Renly's army?

Quote

The maester stood on the windswept balcony outside his chambers. It was here the ravens came, after long flight. Their droppings speckled the gargoyles that rose twelve feet tall on either side of him, a hellhound and a wyvern, two of the thousand that brooded over the walls of the ancient fortress. When first he came to Dragonstone, the army of stone grotesques had made him uneasy, but as the years passed he had grown used to them. Now he thought of them as old friends. The three of them watched the sky together with foreboding.

Two hundred men were not an army, but you didn't need thousands to hold a castle as strong as Winterfell. So long as they could learn which end of a spear did the killing, they might make all the difference. "Do as you say and you'll not find me ungrateful. You can name your own reward."

 Numbers were the last thing needed at Riverrun. A Lannister army already invested the castle, and an even larger force of Freys; the last bird they'd received suggested that the besiegers were having difficulty keeping themselves fed. Brynden Tully had scoured the land clean before retiring behind his walls.

A thousand or so men could be considered as an army, it seems. And this isn't a sellsword army, but an army formed of levies raised, so it would be much cheaper in comparison. While it is still very expensive and many times the value of a regular steel sword, which itself would also be expensive, it's value is not the same as raising an army of several 10ks.

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12 minutes ago, Alex Gu said:

What the actual full military strength of north in war of five kings If robb waits for complete mobilization instead of going to riverlands with only part of the north ?

The North's mobilization is limited by geography and logistics, not population size. Torhenn was able to gather 30k men 300 years ago and march them to the Riverlands. That was before there was even a Kingsroad to ease overland travel. 

I'd imagine Eddard could have done the same. 

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