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How will Stannis invade Winterfell if he can defeat the Freys?

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Stannis will defeat the Freys with the help of the Manderlys.  The Manderlys will return to Winterfell declaring victory for the Boltons, but actually will open the doors for Stannis' army to take winterfell.

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41 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Don't the crypts extend beyond the walls? 

Yes, and we have not seen the lower levels because they are blocked by a collapse, but we have no book confirmation of a passage leading out, and as far as who would be able to tell Stannis about it, we would seemingly be limited to Bran.  Though I'm not suggesting its impossible. 

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4 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Yes, and we have not seen the lower levels because they are blocked by a collapse, but we have no book confirmation of a passage leading out, and as far as who would be able to tell Stannis about it, we would seemingly be limited to Bran.  Though I'm not suggesting its impossible. 

Able was awfully desperate to get down into those crypts... to hide, or to escape... or maybe to let Stannis in? 

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While Stannis was marching to Winterfell Roose was receiving information about his army's condition and progress from a maester accompanying Arnolf Karstark. In the sample chapter Stannis discovers this and has the maester imprisoned while his men seize the ravens. He simultaneously learns that the Karstarks were planning to betray him, arresting the lords and disarming the men. He's now in a position to send a raven back to Winterfell (supposedly from the maester) claiming that Stannis was defeated, and he can include information that Stannis wouldn't know about it (e.g. the Karstark betrayal). He can then send men back to Winterfell dressed as either Freys or Karstarks, bearing Lightbringer as proof of their victory. The snowstorm allows the rest of Stannis' army to follow unseen, and lie in wait while the disguised soldiers (once inside the walls) seize the gates. 

There are other factors as well, such as the Manderly men turning their coats and possibly Bran communicating something to Stannis via raven/weirwood. 

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18 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Able was awfully desperate to get down into those crypts... to hide, or to escape... or maybe to let Stannis in? 

Where would he have come by that information?  We know he "knows" the tale of bael the bard, maybe he simply wants to hide.

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It seems the only way to get inside. Manderly's men, Stannis' men disguised in Freys. Even Stannis himself, apparently their prisoner.
A justice: The same trick Ramsey gave to Theon to enter Winterfell. I'm your friend, open the gate!

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I am probably in the minority here, but I don't think Stannis will invade Winterfell. I think his story is the greek tragedy of him making wrong decisions that lead to his own downfall. Also most readers expect him to win, which makes it even more likely that he will loose, in my opinion. 

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Whut?
Stannis defeating the Freys and invading...what exactly? The Seven Kingdoms?

Yeah, not gonna happen, Stannis is toast, he'll never get that far south, ever again.

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Bran can pass information to Theon about hidden passages to Winterfell.

Spoiler

It taught him Winterfell's secrets too. The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell. There was a covered bridge that went from the fourth floor of the bell tower across to the second floor of the rookery. Bran knew about that. And he knew you could get inside the inner wall by the south gate, climb three floors and run all the way around Winterfell through a narrow tunnel in the stone, and then come out on ground level at the north gate, with a hundred feet of wall looming over you. Even Maester Luwin didn't know that, Bran was convinced.

 

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On ‎12‎/‎4‎/‎2017 at 4:30 AM, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Bran can pass information to Theon about hidden passages to Winterfell.

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It taught him Winterfell's secrets too. The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell. There was a covered bridge that went from the fourth floor of the bell tower across to the second floor of the rookery. Bran knew about that. And he knew you could get inside the inner wall by the south gate, climb three floors and run all the way around Winterfell through a narrow tunnel in the stone, and then come out on ground level at the north gate, with a hundred feet of wall looming over you. Even Maester Luwin didn't know that, Bran was convinced.

 

Everyone always talks about that passage, but you have to already be inside the castle to use it, so I am not sure what use it would be.

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AStannis has the means to send fake reports back to Winterfell, although Roose is damn clever and might see through them. Personally, I believe that Roose's survival will solely rest on Lady Dustin. By sending away the Frey host to deal with Stannis, Roose has greatly diminished his own power over the other northern lords because w/o the Freys the odds are only in his favor because the remaining houses at Winterfell would have to all unite to overthrow Bolton's numbers. If they are all still divided and suspicious of each other than Roose will be fine for the time being but if they are already conspiring against him and waiting for an opportunity, than Roose is in trouble. His best bet at stability is his alliance with Lady Dustin because she has considerable numbers because she withheld more men than anyone else when Robb marched south and because house Ryswell will follow Lady Dustins lead no matter what she does because Lady Dustin used to be a Ryswell. 

The other half of this problem relies on the success or failure of the Frey's and the Manderly's working together AND defeating Stannis. If they succeed, then they can swiftly return to Winterfell afterwards to help Roose cement his claim on the North. If they work together but fail, they will very likely weaken Stannis enough in the process that it wont be too difficult for Roose to finish Stannis off (provided the Umbers stay loyal which is very hard to say since there are Umbers fighting for Stannis AND Roose and the other northern lords remain loyal as well). But I think we can all agree that it is very likely that the Manderly's will turn on the Frey's in this battle. The Freys just cut Wyman's throat after all. If and when the Freys get destroyed by Stannis, Stannis will most likely get caught up to speed on what is going on Winterfell from Manderly men. At this point, Stannis will have the Manderly's and an Umber force along with mountain clans and will be offering justice and alliances to the northern lords who have yet to join them on top of the fact that he did the north a solid by getting rid of the Freys. This is why Roose looked scared after he sent the Freys and Manderly's out to fight Stannis, he knows that Stannis already has the upper hand because despite the fact that he has the occupation of Winterfell, a castle is only as good as the men who defend it and everyone wants to kill each other at this point. And to top off everything, he made his claim on a fake stark marriage and he doesnt even have her anymore thanks to Theon and Mances spearwives. And the hooded man still walks free. Too make it even worse, these high tensions are going to make it harder than ever from keeping Ramsay from doing something foolish. Roose's best hope lies with his alliance with Lady Dustin (and his only hope, should the Freys be defeated) and Lady Dustin hates Ramsay more than she hated Ned Stark so in all practicality his alliance is a personal one, not one between houses and with Roose's Ryswell wife and original heir Domeric dead, he really has little ties with Lady Dustin and for all we know Lady Dustin could easily blame Roose for allowing Domeric tobe exposed to Ramsay the same way she blamed Ned for her husbands death. Roose is so fucked. To answer the question, Stannis might march right through the front gate or he might slaughter the boltons outside of Winterfell but he wont have to find a way to infiltrate the castle because that wont be how he wins, he will win by destroying Boltons only true support (the Freys) and by stealing away Boltons support of the other northern houses out from underneath him.

Edited by Buddhakin

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On 11/26/2017 at 11:45 AM, Ser_ Felipe Dayne said:

There is an incredible theory that says that Stannis and his men will disguise themselves as Freys men

Yes.

On 11/26/2017 at 11:45 AM, Ser_ Felipe Dayne said:

to rob the Castle, what do they think of it?

The robbing the castle bit I had not heard before. Who does who think of what?

 

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I'm doubtful but what say this tread gets a bit of a kick start.

On 11/27/2017 at 2:56 PM, Dorian Martell's son said:

Stanis will probably die just before or during the battle for winterfell 

 

On 11/27/2017 at 6:27 PM, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Stannis will defeat the Freys with the help of the Manderlys.  The Manderlys will return to Winterfell declaring victory for the Boltons, but actually will open the doors for Stannis' army to take winterfell.

 

On 11/29/2017 at 4:16 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Where would he have come by that information?  We know he "knows" the tale of bael the bard, maybe he simply wants to hide.

 

This is what confuses me about the possible battles at the crofters village and WF.

In the DwD Asha chapter, The Sacrifice, a group of people ride in to Stannis’ camp. Asha thinks perhaps as many as a score(20).

A Dance with Dragons - The Sacrifice        They emerged from the storm like a troop of wraiths, big men on small horses, made even bigger by the bulky furs they wore. Swords rode on their hips, singing their soft steel song as they rattled in their scabbards. Asha saw a battle-axe strapped to one man's saddle, a warhammer on another's back. Shields they bore as well, but so obscured by snow and ice that the arms upon them could not be read. For all her layers of wool and fur and boiled leather, Asha felt naked standing there. A horn, she thought, I need a horn to rouse the camp./

Turns out is the Banker & his NW’s escort plus six Ironborn released from Deepwood, Theon & Jeyne and maybe a few others.

Bare with me a minute --- the banker & his NW escort were able to get from CB to Deepwood. Ransom some Ironborn, ride to WF, encounter Umber who has Theon & Jeyne and then ride to where ever Stannis is. Is that reasonably correct?

Umber nonchalantly passed Theon & Jeyne over the group.

In the WoW Theon chapter Theon remembers that while Umber was sorta interrogating Jeyne, “What he might have said or done next Theon never learned, for that was when the boy ran up. Clutching a spear and shouting that the portcullis on Winterfell’s main gate was rising. And how Crowsfood had grinned at that.”

Can someone help me figure this out? I understand some things like 40 foot snow drifts have to be taken with a grain of salt but why is Umber smiling about the main gate portcullis opening? What happened? Did anyone ride out? Did someone sneak in WF? How did the Banker and his merry men find Stannis so quickly?  I asking because a couple hundred pages before the Sacrifice chapter a raven arrived at WF saying Stannis is three days ride from WF

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I "His host lies not three days' ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well."/

My be that I am just being fussy and making mountains out of mole hills but does there seem to be information missing?

Let me look at that again. Shyte hit the fan inside WF. Word is Stannis is three days from WF.  People decide now is the time to rescue fArya. Theon & Jeyne jump. They are picked up by Umber. Theon while in Umbers custody remembers the portcullis opens. Some time in there the Banker arrives. Theon & Jeyne are passed of the Banker. The banker and his troupe find Stannis stranded at the village how?

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On ‎18‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 7:21 PM, Buddhakin said:

AStannis has the means to send fake reports back to Winterfell, although Roose is damn clever and might see through them. Personally, I believe that Roose's survival will solely rest on Lady Dustin. By sending away the Frey host to deal with Stannis, Roose has greatly diminished his own power over the other northern lords because w/o the Freys the odds are only in his favor because the remaining houses at Winterfell would have to all unite to overthrow Bolton's numbers. If they are all still divided and suspicious of each other than Roose will be fine for the time being but if they are already conspiring against him and waiting for an opportunity, than Roose is in trouble. His best bet at stability is his alliance with Lady Dustin because she has considerable numbers because she withheld more men than anyone else when Robb marched south and because house Ryswell will follow Lady Dustins lead no matter what she does because Lady Dustin used to be a Ryswell. 

The other half of this problem relies on the success or failure of the Frey's and the Manderly's working together AND defeating Stannis. If they succeed, then they can swiftly return to Winterfell afterwards to help Roose cement his claim on the North. If they work together but fail, they will very likely weaken Stannis enough in the process that it wont be too difficult for Roose to finish Stannis off (provided the Umbers stay loyal which is very hard to say since there are Umbers fighting for Stannis AND Roose and the other northern lords remain loyal as well). But I think we can all agree that it is very likely that the Manderly's will turn on the Frey's in this battle. The Freys just cut Wyman's throat after all. If and when the Freys get destroyed by Stannis, Stannis will most likely get caught up to speed on what is going on Winterfell from Manderly men. At this point, Stannis will have the Manderly's and an Umber force along with mountain clans and will be offering justice and alliances to the northern lords who have yet to join them on top of the fact that he did the north a solid by getting rid of the Freys. This is why Roose looked scared after he sent the Freys and Manderly's out to fight Stannis, he knows that Stannis already has the upper hand because despite the fact that he has the occupation of Winterfell, a castle is only as good as the men who defend it and everyone wants to kill each other at this point. And to top off everything, he made his claim on a fake stark marriage and he doesnt even have her anymore thanks to Theon and Mances spearwives. And the hooded man still walks free. Too make it even worse, these high tensions are going to make it harder than ever from keeping Ramsay from doing something foolish. Roose's best hope lies with his alliance with Lady Dustin (and his only hope, should the Freys be defeated) and Lady Dustin hates Ramsay more than she hated Ned Stark so in all practicality his alliance is a personal one, not one between houses and with Roose's Ryswell wife and original heir Domeric dead, he really has little ties with Lady Dustin and for all we know Lady Dustin could easily blame Roose for allowing Domeric tobe exposed to Ramsay the same way she blamed Ned for her husbands death. Roose is so fucked. To answer the question, Stannis might march right through the front gate or he might slaughter the boltons outside of Winterfell but he wont have to find a way to infiltrate the castle because that wont be how he wins, he will win by destroying Boltons only true support (the Freys) and by stealing away Boltons support of the other northern houses out from underneath him.

Very interesting post. It sounds realistic without bias towards any character.

However I think we have to take something into consideration. Stannis is a tragic character. Whenever he is nealy grasping greatness with the odds on his side something unexpected happens and he loses it all. The blackwater battle is a great exemple of stannis life.

So how can things go to hell for stannis? What if maderley never shows up for the battle instead of joining with stannis? Then what if roose has set up a massive trap and a day later sent ramsay with na army to kill the surviving manderleys from the battle against stannis? However when they get there there are no manderleys and the freys are about to be defeated thanks to stannis plots. But ramsay arrives in time to save them and in turn defeat stannis?

Do you think something along those lines makes sense taking into account stannis tragic fate?

On ‎27‎/‎11‎/‎2017 at 11:27 PM, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Stannis will defeat the Freys with the help of the Manderlys.  The Manderlys will return to Winterfell declaring victory for the Boltons, but actually will open the doors for Stannis' army to take winterfell.

It would be too strange if the manderleys return to winterfell without a known frey leading the remaining frey soldiers. Everybody would know they betryed the freys somehow and roose would probably be very suspicious of them and take some kind of measures.

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14 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

<snip>

Can someone help me figure this out? I understand some things like 40 foot snow drifts have to be taken with a grain of salt but why is Umber smiling about the main gate portcullis opening? What happened? Did anyone ride out? Did someone sneak in WF? How did the Banker and his merry men find Stannis so quickly?

The sample chapter seems to confirm that the Freys rode out the gate and into the traps Mors had set, given Aenys rode into a trench and broke his neck. Mors had seemingly wanted to provoke that sort of response for a while, given his boys were constantly making noise with the drums and he was ambushing Roose's scouts as they left the castle (Roose mentions that none had been returning). 

Not sure what answer you're after with respect to Tycho locating Stannis. He knew the rough direction, had some guides with him, and Stannis had kept a beacon fire lit 24/7 on the tower at the village. I don't know if it's unrealistic that he found him in the storm, but I never assumed any information was missing. 

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