UK Politics: Winter of Discontent

[Werthead]

Oh boy. General Flynn had an interest in Cambridge Analytica, which the electoral commission is now investigating for irregularities in their role in Brexit. This could be interesting.

[Werthead]

Great. So we've conceded to the EU on the Brexit bill, we're adopting the EU's plan on how to deal with Northern Ireland and we're probably going to do the same on resident rights (which were never really in question anyway).

I'm so glad we spent ten months arguing about that when we could have agreed to all of that on Day 1 and been discussing the trade deal instead. Now we've got only 10 months to negotiate the most complex and important trade deal in modern British history.

[Werthead]

Hahaha. London and Scotland both pointing out that if an exception can be made for Northern Ireland to stay in the EU framework, so can they. And the DUP are apparently furious. This'll be interesting.

[mormont]

It's almost as if we need a new term for just England leaving the EU.

We could call it 'Exit'. 

Wait. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Hahaha. London and Scotland both pointing out that if an exception can be made for Northern Ireland to stay in the EU framework, so can they. And the DUP are apparently furious. This'll be interesting.

Well, it was kinda obvious, that the SNP wouldn't pass up on that opportunity. But from the outside UK politics are pretty good entertaining atm, that were 10 months well spent. Anyway, so what happens if the DUP triggers a vote of no-confidence over this. New General Election, with some more months squandered, with not really changing the EU's stand, but with a new PM to burn?

53 minutes ago, mormont said:

It's almost as if we need a new term for just England leaving the EU.

We could call it 'Exit'. 

Wait. 

You are forgetting Wales. Shame on you. So it would be Wexit. Or Ewxit, which sounds pretty accurate.

[Werthead]

4 minutes ago, Notone said:

Well, it was kinda obvious, that the SNP wouldn't pass up on that opportunity. But from the outside UK politics are pretty good entertaining atm, that were 10 months well spent. Anyway, so what happens if the DUP triggers a vote of no-confidence over this. New General Election, with some more months squandered, with not really changing the EU's stand, but with a new PM to burn?

Well, it presumably wouldn't change Brexit but it would (hopefully) stop the systematic dismantling of the United Kingdom and its institutions by the Tories. I also can't possibly see how it could be any worse.

The only thing that will stay the DUP's hand is if they think collapsing the government would usher Jeremy Corbyn, no friend of theirs, into power. But they also may not be able to do anything else.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Hahaha. London and Scotland both pointing out that if an exception can be made for Northern Ireland to stay in the EU framework, so can they. And the DUP are apparently furious. This'll be interesting.

I get Scotland, but how can a city override the will of the country?

10 minutes ago, Notone said:

You are forgetting Wales. Shame on you. So it would be Wexit. Or Ewxit, which sounds pretty accurate.

This begs a deep philosophical question, can you forget about something that doesn’t exist?

[Werthead]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I get Scotland, but how can a city override the will of the country?

London voted overwhelmingly for Remain and it's also massively dependent on banking services and free access to the European markets. A hard Brexit would damage London quite badly. Londoners also seem to be quite angry that they're the ones who have been driving the UK's economic success over the last 20 years and now are going to be punished by it (to the rest of the country London sucks in jobs and opportunities that should be spread around the rest of the country and Londoners are elitist bastards who are paid too much, of course). London is really not representative of the rest of the country on quite a few levels.

As for practically how you'd do it - Scotland has a set border with the rest of the UK - it'd be probably impractical. There's a (relatively) hard boundary with the M25 motorway, but over a million people commute in and out of London every day from towns and cities dozens of miles away, by car and train. You'd never be able to put any customs barriers in the way of them, the city would grind to a halt.

[Werthead]

Apparently the deal that was on the table today and was nearly done was sunk by the DUP. So it might be that May will just have to call their bluff on that or risk no trade talks starting next week, which would be utterly disastrous for the country.

The Conservative Party might have to put the benefit of the country ahead of their desire for power. Or, in other words, we are fucked.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

57 minutes ago, Werthead said:

London voted overwhelmingly for Remain and it's also massively dependent on banking services and free access to the European markets. A hard Brexit would damage London quite badly. Londoners also seem to be quite angry that they're the ones who have been driving the UK's economic success over the last 20 years and now are going to be punished by it (to the rest of the country London sucks in jobs and opportunities that should be spread around the rest of the country and Londoners are elitist bastards who are paid too much, of course). London is really not representative of the rest of the country on quite a few levels.

As for practically how you'd do it - Scotland has a set border with the rest of the UK - it'd be probably impractical. There's a (relatively) hard boundary with the M25 motorway, but over a million people commute in and out of London every day from towns and cities dozens of miles away, by car and train. You'd never be able to put any customs barriers in the way of them, the city would grind to a halt.

I understand that London really didn’t want Brexit and that it hurts the city a lot. I just don’t see how a city can be a part of the EU while the country it’s in isn’t. That seems like a legal nightmare.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

This begs a deep philosophical question, can you forget about something that doesn’t exist?

What you mean are vowels in the Welsh language, not Wales itself. It's the one place in the UK where sheep are allowed to vote. Anyway, enough of the sheep cheap Wales jokes.

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

As for practically how you'd do it - Scotland has a set border with the rest of the UK - it'd be probably impractical.

Well, it's a bit like the light at the end of the tunnel for the SNP, as that's a good prelude for IndyRef2. So of course Sturgeon is banging on, that she would take that NI deal in an instant, with defacto different laws and regulations and customs checks. Impracticality doesn't seem to be an argument in British politics these days. Just rent a bus, put Let's rebuild Hadrian's wall and make London pay for it on it and off you go.

[Which Tyler]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Hahaha. London and Scotland both pointing out that if an exception can be made for Northern Ireland to stay in the EU framework, so can they. And the DUP are apparently furious. This'll be interesting.

TBH, this was about as predictable as "Donald Trump used twitter and played golf this week"

There is literally no NI Border option that the DUP would accept and still results in Brexit (well - they'd probably be happy with the Norway option that we're told no-one wants, despite lots and lots of people wanting it.)

[williamjm]

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

Apparently the deal that was on the table today and was nearly done was sunk by the DUP. So it might be that May will just have to call their bluff on that or risk no trade talks starting next week, which would be utterly disastrous for the country.

The Conservative Party might have to put the benefit of the country ahead of their desire for power. Or, in other words, we are fucked.

It does seem a bit bizarre if May provisionally agreed that deal without the backing of the DUP, it wouldn't exactly be hard to predict that they would oppose it.

2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

There is literally no NI Border option that the DUP would accept and still results in Brexit (well - they'd probably be happy with the Norway option that we're told no-one wants, despite lots and lots of people wanting it.)

I reckon there might be enough MPs who would be willing to vote for a Norwegian model that it could pass, and it seems to solve many of the problems with the negotiations. Of course, it will never happen under the current government because a substantial number of Tory MPs would mutiny against it and immediately launch a leadership challenge.

[DaveSumm]

17 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I understand that London really didn’t want Brexit and that it hurts the city a lot. I just don’t see how a city can be a part of the EU while the country it’s in isn’t. That seems like a legal nightmare.

Both me and my lodger voted Remain, so I'll also be applying for membership for my house. It will also be 'the EU' for a radius of 1 metre from my location at any given time.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

My favourite potential outcome would be Northern Ireland and Scotland leaving the UK, purely because the remainder would be called Wangland.

[Werthead]

I'm not sure what the hell is going on now, but it seems the government has locked itself into either 1) dumping the Northern Irish issue altogether and accepting a hard Brexit, because the EU's not interested in that or 2) agreeing to let the UK stay in the customs union and single market - or at least its regulatory framework - indefinitely. They've publicly committed today to no hard border in the Irish Sea, despite that being just about the only practical solution on the table.

Rumblings that May might be toast much faster than expected if she chooses wrong on this, but I can't see how she can choose right.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Well, you voted leave to take back control and to escape the rule from Brussels, so that you can now be ruled from Belfast apparently. Which may or may not be an improvement, but one thing's for sure Belfast comes before Brussels, if you list the cities in alphabetical order.

What a shitshow, I mean if May wanted to, she could've gotten the votes for the Irish solution from the SNP, LibDems and possibly Labour in return for shelving a hard Brexit.Of course she would've been toast in a few months, but it not like she's leading a strong and stable goverment, and will see out her term peacefully.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

19 hours ago, williamjm said:

I reckon there might be enough MPs who would be willing to vote for a Norwegian model that it could pass, and it seems to solve many of the problems with the negotiations. Of course, it will never happen under the current government because a substantial number of Tory MPs would mutiny against it and immediately launch a leadership challenge.

It's not that nobody wants it, it's more like the practicality of that solution. It seems nice on a first look but if you look closer you can see how it's not going to work.

[Eggegg]

17 minutes ago, Notone said:

It's not that nobody wants it, it's more like the practicality of that solution. It seems nice on a first look but if you look closer you can see how it's not going to work.

I dont think the Norwegians want it for a start

[mormont]

So, in news that I imagine will surprise absolutely no-one here, those assessments on the economic impact of Brexit? Yeah, they don't exist. Never did. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42249854