R+L=J v.165

[Ygrain]

19 minutes ago, Ran said:

@JNR

Had he been in his right mind he would have taken the Starks hostage instead of murdering them,  no? What a remarkable mental failure that was!

Attempting to apply rational thought to Aerys seems a fool’s errand to me.

Yep but, IMHO, had Aerys had the knowledge where Lyanna was, he wouldn't have hesitate to seize her, be it as a hostage or a toast. That he didn't, indicates only two things: 1) he didn't know, or 2) Rhaegar had some means to prevent that. 1) is a simpler solution because if Rhaegar possessed such a strong leverage, he wouldn't have had to go into hiding. 

8 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Not to mention that the app says Rhaegar could not be found in the first months of the war, without clarifying whether this just refers to the rebels looking for him or the royals as well. Nor does it indicate that the rumors about the TOJ were known only to the royals, or that Aerys had any special knowledge of the TOJ, that it is a given that he could just track them down and take Lyanna hostage. Obviously Hightower eventually found the place, and perhaps it was even part of his charge to bring her back to KL. But it isn't clear how Hightower learned the location of the TOJ, or how long between Hightower being dispatched and him arriving at the TOJ.

Exactly. There are certainly possibilities how this could have gone without Aerys knowing, and if the hideout as well as the personnel were chosen well, then Rhaegar couldn't be found unless he wanted to.

[Ygrain]

@Ran, do you have any theory on how Ethan Glover survived Aerys' burning spree and how he ended up among Ned's closest friends?

[Ran]

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

@Ran, do you have any theory on how Ethan Glover survived Aerys' burning spree and how he ended up among Ned's closest friends?

The only thing that comes to mind is that he was let go to act as a message-bearer to the rebels, or it had something to do with his being younger than the rest and Aerys randomly decided to be merciful because, you know, crazy. The other way to go is something to do with his youth meant Aerys chose to leave him in the dungeons and he was released after the Sack, but his friendship with Ned makes it feel like he ought to have been out and participating in the war rather than cooped up for the vast majority of it.

[Bael's Bastard]

7 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Yep but, IMHO, had Aerys had the knowledge where Lyanna was, he wouldn't have hesitate to seize her, be it as a hostage or a toast. That he didn't, indicates only two things: 1) he didn't know, or 2) Rhaegar had some means to prevent that. 1) is a simpler solution because if Rhaegar possessed such a strong leverage, he wouldn't have had to go into hiding. 

Exactly. There are certainly possibilities how this could have gone without Aerys knowing, and if the hideout as well as the personnel were chosen well, then Rhaegar couldn't be found unless he wanted to.

I agree. The simplest explanation is that Aerys didn't know the location and wasn't able to find it, or else he would have taken Lyanna hostage. It seems likely that Hightower would have been given orders to bring Lyanna back if/when he found her, as Rhaegar presumably was when he was tasked with finding The Knight of the Laughing Tree. 

[Ran]

2 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I agree. The simplest explanation is that Aerys didn't know the location and wasn't able to find it, or else he would have taken Lyanna hostage.

I don't understand this insistence. He murdered the Starks when he could have held them as hostages against the North. Why are we convinced he thought Lyanna as a hostage would end the war? He made  hostages of Elia and her children to keep his _allies_ loyal, but it doesn't follow he'd take hostages to make his enemies lay down their weapons. He wanted to destroy them, not make peace with them. He was crazy-crazy, not crazy-as-a-fox crazy.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

7 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I agree. The simplest explanation is that Aerys didn't know the location and wasn't able to find it, or else he would have taken Lyanna hostage. It seems likely that Hightower would have been given orders to bring Lyanna back if/when he found her, as Rhaegar presumably was when he was tasked with finding The Knight of the Laughing Tree. 

I think he would have killed her, plain and simple. But then, I also think he found out she was masquerading as the mystery knight. The way he killed the Starks was beyond savage. For me, that moment when Jaime describes the way Brandon and Rickard died goes beyond Aerys coming off the hinges completely.

At this point, and you know, years and years of mulling this over, I think there was already something going on between the Starks and the Targaryens, well before Harrenhal.

[Bael's Bastard]

Just now, Ran said:

I don't understand this insistence. He murdered the Starks when he could have held them as hostages against the North. Why are we convinced he thought Lyanna as a hostage would end the war? He made Elia and her children a hostage to keep his _allies_ loyal, but it doesn't follow he'd take hostages to make his enemies lay down their weapons. He wanted to destroy them, not make peace with them.

Poor word choice on my part. I only mean to say that I think he would have taken possession of her if he had known where she was. I did not mean to suggest that I think he would have been more likely to keep her as a hostage than to execute her, etc. once he had taken possession of her.

[Ran]

7 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I only mean to say that I think he would have taken possession of her if he had known where she was

But why do you say this? I can't understand the reasoning behind it, given Aerys's fundamental unsoundness of mind.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 minute ago, Widow's Watch said:

I think he would have killed her, plain and simple. But then, I also think he found out she was masquerading as the mystery knight. The way he killed the Starks was beyond savage. For me, that moment when Jaime describes the way Brandon and Rickard died goes beyond Aerys coming off the hinges completely.

At this point, and you know, years and years of mulling this over, I think there was already something going on between the Starks and the Targaryens, well before Harrenhal.

I think that is possible, even likely. I have also suggested in previous discussions that Aerys might have found out the identity of TKOTLT, although I am not sure how to square that with his entrusting command of the royal forces to Rhaegar (though, again, Aerys is crazy). That said, I personally do not believe the Starks had any previous issues with the Targs or vice versa between Rickard's visit to KL in 264 and the Harrenhal tourney.

[Bael's Bastard]

2 minutes ago, Ran said:

But why do you say this? I can't understand the reasoning behind it, given Aerys's fundamental unsoundness of mind.

Because I don't see why Aerys would just leave Lyanna be if he knew where she was, or was capable of finding her. Even with his unsoundness of mind, why would he not want to capture Lyanna if he could?

[Alexis-something-Rose]

8 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

That said, I personally do not believe the Starks had any previous issues with the Targs or vice versa between Rickard's visit to KL in 264 and the Harrenhal tourney.

It's Jon I in AGOT that raised questions for me when I looked at it in light of Lyanna at the feast at Harrenhal. 

[Ran]

7 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Because I don't see why Aerys would just leave Lyanna be if he knew where she was, or was capable of finding her. Even with his unsoundness of mind, why would he not want to capture Lyanna if he could?

Why would he? His son Rhaegar has apparently decided he has some use for her, and has taken her away where no one seems able to find her. She is, effectively, _already a hostage_ so far as anyone knows. This is why they are fighting. Whether she's holed up in the tower of joy or a tower in KL, what difference does this make?

I simply see no evidence that Aerys was interested in Lyanna, and no evidence that he saw any particular reason why she should be in KL. Assuming otherwise without evidence seems unwarranted.

[IceFire125]

I'm of the opinion GRRM already revealed it to us...

And where do I stand? Jon did not know. To stay with Ygritte, he would need to become a wildling heart and soul. If he abandoned her to return to his duty, the Magnar might cut her heart out. And if he took her with him … assuming she would go, which was far from certain … well, he could scarcely bring her back to Castle Black to live among the brothers. A deserter and a wildling could expect no welcome anywhere in the Seven Kingdoms.

And where do I stand? Rhaegar did not know. To stay with Lyanna he had to become a wildling heart and soul.  If he abandoned her to return to his duty, his Father, the king, would cut her heart out.  And if he took her with him ... assuming she would go, which was far from certain ... well, he could take her back to Winterfell to be with her family and brother.  Deserters of duties... from a wife (Elia) and from a betroth (Robert) could expect no welcome anywhere in the Seven Kingdoms.

-----

We know Jon finally returned to his duty... again, I'm of the opinion that GRRM already revealed it to us...

Ygritte was much in his thoughts as well. He remembered the smell of her hair, the warmth of her body … and the look on her face as she slit the old man’s throat. You were wrong to love her, a voice whispered. You were wrong to leave her, a different voice insisted. He wondered if his father had been torn the same way, when he’d left Jon’s mother to return to Lady Catelyn. He was pledged to Lady Stark, and I am pledged to the Night’s Watch.

Jon pledged his vows to the Night's Watch in front of the heart tree... just as his Father, Rhaegar, pledged his vows to Lady Lyanna Stark, his Mother.

[LynnS]

20 hours ago, Ran said:

He was crazy-crazy, not crazy-as-a-fox crazy.

What role do you think Varys played in manipulating Aerys?  Was Brandon lured to Kingslanding?

It's this passage that makes me question whether Barristan has seen this tactic before:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - The Queensguard

He did not wish to be conspicuous, so when he was finished with his supper he changed out of his court clothes, trading the white cloak of the Queensguard for a hooded brown traveler's cloak such as any common man might wear. He kept his sword and dagger. This could still be some trap. He had little trust in Hizdahr and less in Reznak mo Reznak. The perfumed seneschal could well be part of this, trying to lure him into a secret meeting so he could sweep up him and Skahaz both and charge them with conspiring against the king. If the Shavepate speaks treason, he will leave me no choice but to arrest him. Hizdahr is my queen's consort, however little I may like it. My duty is to him, not Skahaz.

What about Pycelle?

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion VI

Pycelle's breathing was rapid and shallow. "All I did, I did for House Lannister." A sheen of sweat covered the broad dome of the old man's brow, and wisps of white hair clung to his wrinkled skin. "Always . . . for years . . . your lord father, ask him, I was ever his true servant . . . 'twas I who bid Aerys open his gates . . ."

That took Tyrion by surprise. He had been no more than an ugly boy at Casterly Rock when the city fell. "So the Sack of King's Landing was your work as well?"

"For the realm! Once Rhaegar died, the war was done. Aerys was mad, Viserys too young, Prince Aegon a babe at the breast, but the realm needed a king . . . I prayed it should be your good father, but Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly . . ."

"How many have you betrayed, I wonder? Aerys, Eddard Stark, me . . . King Robert as well? Lord Arryn, Prince Rhaegar? Where does it begin, Pycelle?" He knew where it ended.

 

 

[Ygrain]

22 hours ago, Ran said:

Why would he? His son Rhaegar has apparently decided he has some use for her, and has taken her away where no one seems able to find her. She is, effectively, _already a hostage_ so far as anyone knows. This is why they are fighting. Whether she's holed up in the tower of joy or a tower in KL, what difference does this make?

I simply see no evidence that Aerys was interested in Lyanna, and no evidence that he saw any particular reason why she should be in KL. Assuming otherwise without evidence seems unwarranted.

True, we don't have any evidence, but there would be plenty of motivation for Aerys to perceive Lyanna highly negatively. One of her brothers wanted Rhaegar dead, another is waging a rebellion. And since it was her disappearance that sparkled the whole thing, she is basically the reason why House Targaryen is having such terrible issues (I'm emulating Aerys here, not presenting my opinion on Lyanna's role). And if Aerys somehow learned that she was the KotLT, no friend of his... someone as paranoid as Aerys, with a penchant for torture and fire and not above torturing women ( see the fate of lady Serala), might want to get his paws on Lyanna merely to take out his frustrations on her and want her to pay for her family's actions, just like Joffrey did with Sansa. 

[Lord Varys]

On 15.12.2017 at 3:45 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

It is the simplest explanation. Rhaegar would know he had to return at that point, but could not risk Hightower returning to spill any beans he didn't want spilled yet. The app says that Hightower was dispatched to recall Rhaegar to his duties, so as far as we know that was his primary command from Aerys, though there could have been more.

I've real issues with the idea Rhaegar tried to keep anything from Aerys, the court, or the public at large. He took Lyanna in public, so he should have had the guts to do whatever he did with her also in public - i.e. marrying her or taking her as his mistress. Egg's sons also married their spouses openly, and then lived with them for all the world to see.

And Rhaegar effectively had done the same already. He took Lyanna and disappeared with her. That was already public knowledge.

On 15.12.2017 at 3:45 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

Perhaps Rhaegar was able to convince Hightower that his return to KL would fulfill Aerys's command to him, and that his new command was to remain at the TOJ.

While this is not impossible, it is rather odd. We are talking about the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard here. Do you think it likely that Jaime would remain in the Riverlands even after he has fulfilled King Tommen's commands there.

On 15.12.2017 at 3:45 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

Perhaps Hightower wasn't willing to accept such a command, and Rhaegar had to give him an ultimatum that Hightower could either return to KL empty handed, and risk the wrath of Aerys, or Hightower could stay here while Rhaegar returns to KL.

Hightower wouldn't risk the wrath of Aerys. If Rhaegar is free to do as he likes - even when he is dealing with the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard - then Hightower is just an insignificant errand boy who is not likely to be reprimanded in any way if the high lords and princes he interacts with don't care about the messages he brings.

The very idea that the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard is just an errand boy makes no sense. If he - or other Kingsguard - come to you, and bring you a command from the king then you are summoned to court. You don't have a choice aside from, perhaps, violent resistance (like Daemon Blackfyre and Fireball did when the Kingsguard came to summon Daemon to the king).

Rhaegar was just in a tower in the middle of nowhere, not to mention within the confines of his father's Seven Kingdoms - and the loyalist regions at that. Even if Hightower had refused to directly arrest Rhaegar - he still could have called upon the Targaryen loyalists in the region to help him fetch Prince Rhaegar back. That should have been very easy.

On 15.12.2017 at 3:45 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

I see no reason why he would have wanted to stay at the TOJ, or been convinced to see things how Dayne and Whent might have. And no matter how bad Hightower is, he has little chance of besting Dayne and Whent, who have likely accepted Rhaegar's orders. But I think he ultimately was compelled to give his word to remain there, and that he kept it, regardless of what he could have done.

We know he stayed there. The question is just why. And that we do not know yet.

The possibility that Hightower actually spent some time talking to Rhaegar, Dayne, Whent, and other companions that might have been still with them at that point (Richard Lonmouth, perhaps - Mooton and Connington would have left Rhaegar earlier, assuming they went with him) is obviously there, and it is not unlikely at all that Rhaegar actually was very interested in firsthand information on wife, children, father, and mother. And if Hightower has severe issue with watching the queen being raped by the king he could have told their son and heir about that kind of thing.

In addition, there is the whole prophecy angle which might play into this whole thing. Dayne and Whent most likely knew everything Rhaegar believed to know about the prophecy, and they and Rhaegar could have told Hightower about that stuff, too.

The man joined the Kingsguard before Summerhall. He may have attended Aerys and Rhaella's wedding as a Kingsguard. He would have known about the Ghost's prophecy, and the later belief that Rhaegar was the promised prince. We don't know whether he believed in stuff like that - but when Jaehaerys II, Aemon, Rhaegar, and others can believe in prophecy, then a Kingsguard could, too. Especially a Hightower Kingsguard, who may have had access to certain sources at the Citadel in his youth.

On 15.12.2017 at 5:10 PM, Ran said:

Thus the King can extend the right to others to command the Kingsguard. Aegon Targaryen was able to command his sworn shield to help in taking Merry Meg, as one obvious example. Another is in "The Hedge Knight", where Maekar was capable of commanding the Kingsguard to join his son's part in the trial of seven. George indicates that Rhaegar was capable of giving a command they were bound to follow. 

Those orders all involve Kingsguard apparently assigned to royal princes - either as permanent sworn shields or for the duration of the tourney/progress/whatever Baelor and Maekar were up to in THK. They are also comparatively small deeds - bullying a peasant, and participating in a trial-by-combat which involved three royal princes. Those princely command do not prevent said Kingsguard from returning to and protecting their king. Rhaegar's command to Ser Gerold Hightower (if spoken) did.

And thinking about the Ashford tourney - it is pretty obvious that Prince Baelor actually had the power to command the Kingsguard there to not participate in the Trial of Seven. He wasn't just a royal prince or the Heir Apparent, the was also the Hand of the King and the Protector of the Realm. He chose to allow Maekar his way because having the KG in the trial bettered Dunk's chances - at least when he decided to enter the fray as Dunk's last champion.

Ser Gerold Hightower is the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. The person commanding the Kingsguard in the name of the king. Such a person should only receive orders from the king himself - or the people actually speaking for him (i.e. the Hand, a regent, or the Protector of the Realm).

The idea that a random prince can go up to the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and give him a new assignment makes little sense. Do you see Prince Daemon tell Ser Criston to go to the Vale of Arryn to protect his wife Rhea Royce instead of Rhaenyra - and Ser Criston actually obeying that order? Do you see Aerion or Egg giving the Lord Commander of King Aerys' Kingsguard a command protecting their spouses or lovers instead of Queen Aelinor or King Aerys' person? 

I don't see that happening.

If a royal prince strolls through the Red Keep and chances on a Kingsguard and then commands him to fetch his cloak or horse or do some other minor task for him such a man might obey - if he doesn't feel he would be abandoning his present duty by doing so.

We see how rigid the Kingsguard can be when they have explicit command. Ser Mandon Moore is not exactly keen to admit Tyrion into the Small Council chamber never mind the fact that he is King Joffrey's uncle and the brother of the Queen Regent and son of the King's Hand.

On 15.12.2017 at 6:31 PM, Ygrain said:

And Cersei orders the KG about left and right.

Cersei is the queen. She isn't a prince or a princess. And she never gives any direct orders to Barristan Selmy while she is not yet the Queen Regent. Cersei has Jaime, Blount, and Trant as her creatures, whatever that means, but informal power isn't legal power. The idea that the queen - and not the king, the Hand, and the Lord Commander - set up the way the Kingsguard operate isn't very likely.

If there was no clear-cut command structure, the Kingsguard could never guarantee the protection of either the king's person or the members of his family - because they would all steal each other's sworn shields and guardsmen whenever they chanced upon some KG they thought they need now to make a stroll through the city or a ride to the Kingswood, etc.

Not to mention that there are members of the royal family who, at times, didn't even have KG protection. Prince Daemon, for instance. Or Rhaenyra after her fallout with Criston Cole - she had Harwin Strong as sworn shield thereafter, not a member of the Kingsguard. Prince Joffrey's sworn shield Sandor Clegane was originally also not a member of the Kingsguard (which actually indicates that King Robert reserved KG protection to his own person and the person of the queen, not including either his children or brothers.

On 15.12.2017 at 7:25 PM, Ran said:

@JNR

Had he been in his right mind he would have taken the Starks hostage instead of murdering them,  no? What a remarkable mental failure that was!

Attempting to apply rational thought to Aerys seems a fool’s errand to me.

There must be some reason as to why Aerys thought he had to execute not only Brandon (and company) and Rickard but also Eddard and Robert. In light of the fact that Yandel informed us about the escalating tensions between Rhaegar and Aerys in the wake of Harrenhal (the coronation being 'proof' of a conspiracy between the Starks and Rhaegar) chances are very high that the abduction was interpreted by Aerys in the same manner - leading to him believing Brandon and Rickard (and the other Starks and their allies and friends) were all involved in a conspiracy headed by Rhaegar.

That would have been the true reason why he killed them or tried to kill them. He wouldn't have believed they were useful as hostages or anything, he would have thought the rebellion of Rhaegar and the Starks had already begun, and he had to crush it now before it could spread.

The idea that Brandon threatening Rhaegar is what led to the arrest and execution of all his companions - and the fathers of those companions (at least those who were still alive at that point) - doesn't make a lot of sense in that context. Aerys should actually have been delighted at the fact that this rash Stark youth was willing to rid him of his ingrate son.

The fact that he apparently wasn't happy about that is very odd. As is the fact that went as berserk as he did. Brandon wasn't exactly Lord Denys Darklyn of Duskendale, was he?

On 15.12.2017 at 7:35 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

Not to mention that the app says Rhaegar could not be found in the first months of the war, without clarifying whether this just refers to the rebels looking for him or the royals as well. Nor does it indicate that the rumors about the TOJ were known only to the royals, or that Aerys had any special knowledge of the TOJ, that it is a given that he could just track them down and take Lyanna hostage. Obviously Hightower eventually found the place, and perhaps it was even part of his charge to bring her back to KL. But it isn't clear how Hightower learned the location of the TOJ, or how long between Hightower being dispatched and him arriving at the TOJ.

We know Aerys was looking for Rhaegar since before he had made Connington Hand. Aerys wanted to replace Merryweather with Rhaegar but settled on Connington instead because he couldn't find Rhaegar.

Hightower must have been at court for quite some time - after all, Jaime has memories of him being there, has he not?

[Lord Varys]

On 15.12.2017 at 7:53 PM, Ygrain said:

Yep but, IMHO, had Aerys had the knowledge where Lyanna was, he wouldn't have hesitate to seize her, be it as a hostage or a toast. That he didn't, indicates only two things: 1) he didn't know, or 2) Rhaegar had some means to prevent that. 1) is a simpler solution because if Rhaegar possessed such a strong leverage, he wouldn't have had to go into hiding. 

Women usually are non-combatants in this world. Rhaenyra spared the lives of her sister Helaena and her stepmother Alicent, and even King Maegor didn't kill Alyssa Velaryon or any of her daughters while they were in his power.

Aerys killed some women, to be true, but they were either vilified to the highest degree (the Lace Serpent) or part of the families he wanted to eradicate completely (the female Darklyns and Hollards that must have been killed on his command). The only other female victim of Aerys we sort of know are the wetnurse and the mistress (and family) he put down after the death of Prince Jaehaerys. For that madness he later repented.

It is pretty clear that the post-Duskendale was very much nuts. But the idea such a man would have been afraid of or obsessed with a mere girl is very unlikely. And Lyanna was still 13-14 at Harrenhal.

On 15.12.2017 at 7:53 PM, Ygrain said:

Exactly. There are certainly possibilities how this could have gone without Aerys knowing, and if the hideout as well as the personnel were chosen well, then Rhaegar couldn't be found unless he wanted to.

We don't know whether they were at the tower the entire time, but hiding there wouldn't be the problem. Getting there is the much more difficult issue. You don't cross the entire Reach unseen. And Rhaegar would have been missed and looked for immediately after the abduction.

If the dream is accurate, then the three knights at the tower didn't lose their white armor, making it unlikely they could conceal their true identities on the road. Even if he Rhaegar had cut his hair or dyed it - it wouldn't have helped in that context.

On 15.12.2017 at 8:05 PM, Ran said:

The only thing that comes to mind is that he was let go to act as a message-bearer to the rebels, or it had something to do with his being younger than the rest and Aerys randomly decided to be merciful because, you know, crazy. The other way to go is something to do with his youth meant Aerys chose to leave him in the dungeons and he was released after the Sack, but his friendship with Ned makes it feel like he ought to have been out and participating in the war rather than cooped up for the vast majority of it.

If we go by my idea above that Aerys may have accused Brandon and Rickard of conspiring with Rhaegar against the king - then Ethan Glover could have been the one to break, 'confirming' all the accusations of the king under torture, or when he was threatened with torture.

Doing that, could have earned him his freedom prior to the outbreak of the actual rebellion.

The idea that there isn't some plot reason for Ethan Glover being the only one to survive isn't very likely. And the chance that he was stuck in some cell in KL for the entire war isn't very likely. Even if Aerys had spared his life when he dealt with Rickard, Brandon, and the others - he should have burned as soon as the North was rising in rebellion. 

On 15.12.2017 at 8:17 PM, Ran said:

I don't understand this insistence. He murdered the Starks when he could have held them as hostages against the North. Why are we convinced he thought Lyanna as a hostage would end the war? He made  hostages of Elia and her children to keep his _allies_ loyal, but it doesn't follow he'd take hostages to make his enemies lay down their weapons. He wanted to destroy them, not make peace with them. He was crazy-crazy, not crazy-as-a-fox crazy.

In light of the fact that Rhaegar and Aerys reconciled and Rhaegar then led the king's armies the idea that Lyanna (as wife and love of Rhaegar) would have been in any danger from Rhaegar's father is very unlikely. She was, in a rather real sense, family in that scenario.

It is odd that Elia and the children seem to be effectively hostages even before Rhaegar himself is dead, but then - they are hostages against Dorne, not Rhaegar.

And we don't yet know why Aerys felt the need to blackmail Lewyn and Doran into sending them troops. Could be that the true goal of their wrath there was Rhaegar, not so much Aerys. If the Martells had no inclination to send troops to be commanded by Rhaegar then the Martells needed to be brought into line.

The idea that Doran would have responded kindly to letters written by Rhaegar is not very likely. We have to keep in mind that the Martells only return into the camp of the Targaryen loyalists after the gruesome murders of Elia and the children at the hands of the Lannisters - and the decision of King Robert to not punish them for their actions.

If Robert had given Doran justice for Elia and the children, Arianne would have never been betrothed to Viserys III.

On 15.12.2017 at 8:39 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

I think that is possible, even likely. I have also suggested in previous discussions that Aerys might have found out the identity of TKOTLT, although I am not sure how to square that with his entrusting command of the royal forces to Rhaegar (though, again, Aerys is crazy). That said, I personally do not believe the Starks had any previous issues with the Targs or vice versa between Rickard's visit to KL in 264 and the Harrenhal tourney.

The revelation in TWoIaF that Aerys thought Jaime was the mystery knight makes this pretty much unlikely. The man was crazy, but it is pretty clear that his madness very seldom led to him being obsessed with an issue for too long. Back home he wouldn't have cared about that stupid mystery knight but about other issues irritating him.

On 16.12.2017 at 7:09 PM, Ygrain said:

True, we don't have any evidence, but there would be plenty of motivation for Aerys to perceive Lyanna highly negatively. One of her brothers wanted Rhaegar dead, another is waging a rebellion. And since it was her disappearance that sparkled the whole thing, she is basically the reason why House Targaryen is having such terrible issues (I'm emulating Aerys here, not presenting my opinion on Lyanna's role). And if Aerys somehow learned that she was the KotLT, no friend of his... someone as paranoid as Aerys, with a penchant for torture and fire and not above torturing women ( see the fate of lady Serala), might want to get his paws on Lyanna merely to take out his frustrations on her and want her to pay for her family's actions, just like Joffrey did with Sansa. 

The ones Aerys should blame for the Rebellion are Rhaegar and Robert. Rhaegar for taking Lyanna, and Robert for being the guy who successfully rebels against him.

If Aerys can forgive Rhaegar for that - and him commanding the armies indicates that he did forgive him - then there is no reason he would want to endanger that whole new relationship they have by targeting Lyanna. Aerys must have known as much about the Rhaegar-Lyanna thing - perhaps even much more - as Viserys III later told Daenerys.

Rhaegar himself would have told Aerys, Rhaella, and perhaps even his little brother Viserys, about his love for this Stark girl. And why shouldn't he? He was in love with her, and he had the audacity to abduct and marry her. A man doing that, should also have the courage to tell his family what he has done.

And it is not that there wasn't time or anything. Rhaegar returned to KL and spent months in the Crownlands training the new recruits before he rode to the Trident.

In addition, the men fighting under Rhaegar - his allies, friends, companions, etc. - would also have inquired about his past deeds and motivation behind them. He wouldn't have been forced to talk to them, of course, but if you want men to fight for you being honest to them is a good way to win their trust and loyalty.

[divica]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The ones Aerys should blame for the Rebellion are Rhaegar and Robert. Rhaegar for taking Lyanna, and Robert for being the guy who successfully rebels against him.

If Aerys can forgive Rhaegar for that - and him commanding the armies indicates that he did forgive him - then there is no reason he would want to endanger that whole new relationship they have by targeting Lyanna. Aerys must have known as much about the Rhaegar-Lyanna thing - perhaps even much more - as Viserys III later told Daenerys.

Rhaegar himself would have told Aerys, Rhaella, and perhaps even his little brother Viserys, about his love for this Stark girl. And why shouldn't he? He was in love with her, and he had the audacity to abduct and marry her. A man doing that, should also have the courage to tell his family what he has done.

And it is not that there wasn't time or anything. Rhaegar returned to KL and spent months in the Crownlands training the new recruits before he rode to the Trident.

In addition, the men fighting under Rhaegar - his allies, friends, companions, etc. - would also have inquired about his past deeds and motivation behind them. He wouldn't have been forced to talk to them, of course, but if you want men to fight for you being honest to them is a good way to win their trust and loyalty.

If rhaegar talked about his relationship with lyanna with lots of people then even after robert became king it would be a known rumour that rhaegar and lyanna loved each other and the rebelion happened because of lies.

However no one (with the exception of danny/viserys) EVER talks about this and those 2 aren t really trustworthy about this issue. Besides, if it were comon knowledge that they loved each other rhaegar would have talked about her pregnancy with someone... Again, no one seems to know! I find it very strange that you think rhaegar talked with people about him and lyanna being in love...

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, divica said:

If rhaegar talked about his relationship with lyanna with lots of people then even after robert became king it would be a known rumour that rhaegar and lyanna loved each other and the rebelion happened because of lies.

They might have known all that. Lyanna and Rhaegar have as of yet not been discussed by any POV character aside from AGoT - and there Ned was as, well, obfuscating as he was.

And Robert clearly wanted to believe what he told Ned and the reader in AGoT - that Rhaegar raped Lyanna countless times. And, you know, he may not have been completely wrong there, considering that rape isn't exactly defined as it is today. If a man starts an affair with the daughter or sister of a man he is dishonoring her and her family - and the man and family of the man she is supposed to marry -, even if she gladly has sex with him.

In fact, Robert can think that Rhaegar raped Lyanna repeatedly and that she was also married to him. After all, from the point of view of the Starks and the reader Sansa would have been raped by Tyrion (and 'Arya' is right now raped by Ramsay) due to the fact that these two girls were forced into marriages against their will. Robert can believe his Lyanna wanted to marry him but was forced to marry Rhaegar because the man abducted her and forcefully wed her the way Ramsay married Lady Hornwood, say.

But aside from that - it is pretty clear that Robert believed what Robert wanted to believe. And it is not that he ever got around to actually talk to either Lyanna and Rhaegar about what was actually going on. Or cared to talk to that with people at court and others who may have known stuff.

4 hours ago, divica said:

However no one (with the exception of danny/viserys) EVER talks about this and those 2 aren t really trustworthy about this issue. Besides, if it were comon knowledge that they loved each other rhaegar would have talked about her pregnancy with someone... Again, no one seems to know! I find it very strange that you think rhaegar talked with people about him and lyanna being in love...

It could have been public knowledge that Lyanna had been pregnant. All Ned needed to tell everyone is keep Lyanna's child different from his own bastard. And the best way to do that would be to claim Lyanna had a miscarriage or a stillborn daughter.

It seems very likely Ned had to tell Robert a convincing story as about Lyanna's whereabouts and death in the south. He would not only have known what the hell Whent, Dayne, and Hightower had done protecting her, but also how she died, what had been her last words, etc.

And we do know that Robert and Ned overcame their differences when they shared their grief for Lyanna. This all implies that these two men talked about stuff.

And the true trick to the Jon Snow plan was that nobody ever thought that Eddard Stark's bastard may have been Lyanna Stark's son by Rhaegar Targaryen. Had a single person entertained that notion the entire card house would have come crashing down. Because that is as sweet a thought as the idea that Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen aren't Robert's children but Jaime's. Once you have such a thought you never let it go again.

Everybody seems to know Lyanna and Rhaegar had sex. So pretty much everybody had a good reason to assume they may have children. There has to be a reason why nobody ever believed that Lyanna gave birth to a living child - most likely because Eddard Stark convinced people that this was the case. If Lyanna Stark's death was shrouded in mystery and obscurity people would speculate about the whole thing, and there would be rumors aplenty, rumors possibly even more dangerous than the Jon Snow story.

And the whole Jon Snow story makes, at least in my opinion, only as much sense as it does if people had known, in the end, that Rhaegar and Lyanna were also married. Without that, there is essentially no reason for Eddard Stark to disguise Jon Snow as his bastard. He could make him Lyanna's bastard by Rhaegar. A bastard is essentially a political non-entity, especially a bastard who can never be acknowledged by his true father. Ned could have made Lyanna's child her bastard by an unknown father. Considering that he has no Valyrian features he wouldn't have been an obvious son of Rhaegar's. 

The idea that Ned feared that Robert would go to war with him over a mere bastard - or go out of his way to arrange his murder (or look the other way if some other people arranged it for him) - makes little sense to me. Yes, Robert hated the Targaryens, but he also loved Lyanna. And her child was now under the care and protection of his oldest friend, a great lord in his own right, married to the eldest daughter of another great lord.

One doesn't see Robert killing such a child. Nor does one see anyone pushing Robert to murder a bastard who may be a royal bastard.

Now, if Rhaegar and Lyanna were married - and that fact known - then Lyanna's child by Rhaegar was a potential pretender to the Iron Throne. A pretender with a pretty strong claim considering that Rhaegar's children by Elia were dead (assuming the infant lived to an age in which Targaryen loyalists might have been willing to rally to his banner). In the eyes of some Targaryen loyalists he could have as strong a claim as Viserys III.

I still don't think it very likely Robert would allowed the murder of a child of Lyanna's, but considering the claim of the child there would have been people around him - not just Tywin and Cersei but also Stannis (and later Renly) - who would have been pushing very hard in that direction, if only for the reason to ensure the survival and prosperity of the Baratheon dynasty. And Ned simply wasn't willing to take that risk in the wake of Robert's reaction to the murder of the royal children during the Sack.

[divica]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They might have known all that. Lyanna and Rhaegar have as of yet not been discussed by any POV character aside from AGoT - and there Ned was as, well, obfuscating as he was.

And Robert clearly wanted to believe what he told Ned and the reader in AGoT - that Rhaegar raped Lyanna countless times. And, you know, he may not have been completely wrong there, considering that rape isn't exactly defined as it is today. If a man starts an affair with the daughter or sister of a man he is dishonoring her and her family - and the man and family of the man she is supposed to marry -, even if she gladly has sex with him.

In fact, Robert can think that Rhaegar raped Lyanna repeatedly and that she was also married to him. After all, from the point of view of the Starks and the reader Sansa would have been raped by Tyrion (and 'Arya' is right now raped by Ramsay) due to the fact that these two girls were forced into marriages against their will. Robert can believe his Lyanna wanted to marry him but was forced to marry Rhaegar because the man abducted her and forcefully wed her the way Ramsay married Lady Hornwood, say.

But aside from that - it is pretty clear that Robert believed what Robert wanted to believe. And it is not that he ever got around to actually talk to either Lyanna and Rhaegar about what was actually going on. Or cared to talk to that with people at court and others who may have known stuff.

It could have been public knowledge that Lyanna had been pregnant. All Ned needed to tell everyone is keep Lyanna's child different from his own bastard. And the best way to do that would be to claim Lyanna had a miscarriage or a stillborn daughter.

It seems very likely Ned had to tell Robert a convincing story as about Lyanna's whereabouts and death in the south. He would not only have known what the hell Whent, Dayne, and Hightower had done protecting her, but also how she died, what had been her last words, etc.

And we do know that Robert and Ned overcame their differences when they shared their grief for Lyanna. This all implies that these two men talked about stuff.

And the true trick to the Jon Snow plan was that nobody ever thought that Eddard Stark's bastard may have been Lyanna Stark's son by Rhaegar Targaryen. Had a single person entertained that notion the entire card house would have come crashing down. Because that is as sweet a thought as the idea that Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen aren't Robert's children but Jaime's. Once you have such a thought you never let it go again.

Everybody seems to know Lyanna and Rhaegar had sex. So pretty much everybody had a good reason to assume they may have children. There has to be a reason why nobody ever believed that Lyanna gave birth to a living child - most likely because Eddard Stark convinced people that this was the case. If Lyanna Stark's death was shrouded in mystery and obscurity people would speculate about the whole thing, and there would be rumors aplenty, rumors possibly even more dangerous than the Jon Snow story.

And the whole Jon Snow story makes, at least in my opinion, only as much sense as it does if people had known, in the end, that Rhaegar and Lyanna were also married. Without that, there is essentially no reason for Eddard Stark to disguise Jon Snow as his bastard. He could make him Lyanna's bastard by Rhaegar. A bastard is essentially a political non-entity, especially a bastard who can never be acknowledged by his true father. Ned could have made Lyanna's child her bastard by an unknown father. Considering that he has no Valyrian features he wouldn't have been an obvious son of Rhaegar's. 

The idea that Ned feared that Robert would go to war with him over a mere bastard - or go out of his way to arrange his murder (or look the other way if some other people arranged it for him) - makes little sense to me. Yes, Robert hated the Targaryens, but he also loved Lyanna. And her child was now under the care and protection of his oldest friend, a great lord in his own right, married to the eldest daughter of another great lord.

One doesn't see Robert killing such a child. Nor does one see anyone pushing Robert to murder a bastard who may be a royal bastard.

Now, if Rhaegar and Lyanna were married - and that fact known - then Lyanna's child by Rhaegar was a potential pretender to the Iron Throne. A pretender with a pretty strong claim considering that Rhaegar's children by Elia were dead (assuming the infant lived to an age in which Targaryen loyalists might have been willing to rally to his banner). In the eyes of some Targaryen loyalists he could have as strong a claim as Viserys III.

I still don't think it very likely Robert would allowed the murder of a child of Lyanna's, but considering the claim of the child there would have been people around him - not just Tywin and Cersei but also Stannis (and later Renly) - who would have been pushing very hard in that direction, if only for the reason to ensure the survival and prosperity of the Baratheon dynasty. And Ned simply wasn't willing to take that risk in the wake of Robert's reaction to the murder of the royal children during the Sack.

I was reading your post and suddenly thought. Does anyone ever say if rhaegar married Lyanna?

We know he kidnapped her and they disappeared. In addition, rhaegar loved her, believed in profecies, could have gotten a divorce and targaryens used to practice polygamy. So what if like you said it was public knowledge he married her and we simply haven t seen a character thinking about it?

 

I don t know if it is grrm style to have such a public fact ignored and suddenly become known, but it makes sense with what we know of the past. Why the KG stayed in the ToJ, why ned hid lyanna's baby, why if Lyanna told her familly she loved rhaegar they wouldn t back down (it was a hummiliation to marry without her father consent)... Why the KG would die to defend jon (they would believe that ned would tell Robert and when he finds the truth he would kill jon because he is the heir). There are several things that fit the story much better...