R+L=J v.165

[Geddus]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We have good evidence that Aerys didn't trust his son. But, sure, there has to be a story as to why and how Rhaegar got back into the good graces of his father and how it came to be that Aerys II decided to allow his son to command an army.

Well, the evidence we have are basically the words of Pycelle, aren't they? Who knows if he's telling the truth.

Anyway, by the time shit hit the fan it seems clear to me that Aerys trusted his son, or at least trusted him more than anyone else: he wanted him to become hand and when Rhaegar couldn't be found, he gave the office to one of his friends. Then, when the prince finally came back, the king immediately put him in charge (as per Jaime's recollection, it was Rhaegar's decision to leave him to guard Aerys so by that point the prince was calling the shots, not the king). It also seems to me that Rhaegar did in fact fully support his father.

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, Geddus said:

Well, the evidence we have are basically the words of Pycelle, aren't they? Who knows if he's telling the truth.

It isn't just Pycelle. There are quite a few people in the books who imply that Aerys didn't trust his Hand, wife, or son. And we do know from Jaime and Selmy that Rhaegar was plotting against his father.

And even if Pycelle was biased against Aerys and in favor of Tywin, this doesn't mean he would invent a quarrel between Aerys and Rhaegar. If you want to whitewash Tywin and the Lannisters and Robert you should actually blacken the reputation of Rhaegar as much as that of Aerys to justify why it wasn't that great of a crime to put down Rhaegar's wife and children.

Pointing out that Rhaegar was against the Mad King means you make Rhaegar a hero standing against his mad father, the villain.

21 minutes ago, Geddus said:

Anyway, by the time shit hit the fan it seems clear to me that Aerys trusted his son, or at least trusted him more than anyone else: he wanted him to become hand and when Rhaegar couldn't be found, he gave the office to one of his friends. Then, when the prince finally came back, the king immediately put him in charge (as per Jaime's recollection, it was Rhaegar's decision to leave him to guard Aerys so by that point the prince was calling the shots, not the king). It also seems to me that Rhaegar did in fact fully support his father.

Rhaegar also tells Jaime he would make 'changes' after his return, implying Aerys' days on the throne were numbered. We don't know exactly what that meant, of course, but it indicates that father and son really had some unresolved issues.

Also note that Aerys II did not dismiss Chelsted as Hand after Rhaegar's return. He remained in office and Rhaegar was not named Hand. What office Rhaegar had when he led the Targaryen army - if he had any at all - is not clear. I've tossed around the idea Aerys may have named him Protector of the Realm, but as of yet there is no indication that this is true.

The assumption that Aerys and Rhaegar had come to some understanding is reasonable - after all, one usually doesn't grant a man one does not trust command over an army - but Aerys II wasn't entirely sane, and we don't know what role Elia and the children played in all that. They were in Aerys' care, and Aerys used them as hostages against Dorne while Rhaegar was alive and commanding the army. He may have done the same thing to press Rhaegar into service. Or rather: It may have been part of his overall strategy to get his son to do what he wanted.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

They are read by at least one person. 

Thanks ;-).

[UnmaskedLurker]

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What can I say? Aren't my postings already far too long and tedious to read through? Assuming people even bother to do that?

I occasionally mention interesting rival theories I do like but not subscribe to, but in this thread the majority of the people do not need to get a reminder of other theories on the subject, no?

Good point. I guess what I really mean is that if you look at your posts from the past 12 hours or so, you presented your positions as possible theories rather than firm conclusions. I suppose I was merely suggesting that such an approach (as you have taken since our exchange) seems more warranted regarding the issues raised than your approach in the prior posts I was referencing where you expressed your theories as if the evidence were more or less conclusive when you actually know that the issue is less clear than that. But I am unnecessarily quibbling -- so don't take it too seriously.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, until ADwD and TWoIaF that was basically my approach, too. But then we got the party of Aerys and the party of Rhaegar at court, forced incest marriages because of prophecies, news about Ashara and 'a Stark', a stillborn daughter, Aerys' people believing the coronation of Lyanna did not actually enrage the Starks but was instead a ruse for a plot of Rhaegar's with the Starks, etc.

The back story is clearly not yet been told in full, and there are unknowns in this equation. A proper theory should at least consider that possibility and then try to include some of those potential 'unknowns' in their own theories. Believing we already know everything (even about that stuff we know at least some at this point) isn't something we should do.

At least not in my opinion.

It is also clear, I think, that Rhaegar and Lyanna will get their own story. They might be dead, but when the story is over we'll know them as well as many of the characters who lived through the series - both through memories and tales about them as well as through visions (via Bloodraven and Bran).

Good points. You are almost certainly right that there is more important information to be told about their story. I just think the more interesting aspects will relate to how they got together than what quarrels they might have had before Rhaegar left for KL. But certainly GRRM is interested in telling the readers more about what happened between them and has been hamstrung by not wanting to be too definitive about things that need to be kept under wraps until Jon's parentage is ready to be revealed. And I had almost forgotten that Howland Reed is still alive and has not yet appeared in the story -- probably not a coincidence because he just knows too much.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Here, I think, you are oversimplifying things. George already gave us the subtlest clues that Robert (the only guy telling us 'the rape story') is wrong there. But this doesn't mean we have only two alternatives - the rape story and the fairy-tale love story. Romance can be a spectrum, and George's love stories aren't all happy.

A surprise could thus be that Dany and Robert have the right of it to different degrees. We'll have to wait and see.

Throughout Westeros (other than perhaps some lingering Targ loyalists or Rhaegar acquaintances) -- the "official" story that everyone seems to tell (even the Stark children) is that Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar. They might not talk about rape specifically, but almost everyone seems not to question that Rhaegar took Lyanna and kept her against her will for over a year. And while Dany states that Rhaegar loved Lyanna -- that statement can still be consistent with the notion that he was obsessed with her and kidnapped -- as everyone else seems to believe (Dany did not say that Lyanna loved him back). We already know that this "love story" ends fairly tragically, whatever other details get filled in -- no fairy tale if one dies in battle and the other dies shortly after giving birth to their son.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, there are two parts to this. First, I think, that their love kind of soured once the war Starks died and the war started. I mean, you would have to be utterly, well, mad to only care about fucking each other while the world burns around you. That makes no sense at all for either of those characters. Lyanna stands up for Howland Reed of all people. Why should be think she would want to see her the people of Westeros killing each other over her?

And Rhaegar aspires to be king. He should not put his head in the sand but do something to prevent his people killing each other.

But I don't think that was the end of their love. I think they stuck together and were indeed on the run from Aerys (not the rebels, they were a non-issue during the first half of the war, especially in the Riverlands and the Reach and Dorne). But the idea that Lyanna cheered Rhaegar on when he decided to wage war against her brother(s) and Robert simply makes no sense to me. 

Nor does the idea that Lyanna would want to sit out such a war in the middle of nowhere. She simply doesn't have the personality for that. She is pampered, dialed-up version of Arya. An Arya completely secure in her role as the princess of the North. 

Given that their families were fighting each other -- I think that staying out of the war does seem to have been their intent (it certainly is what they actually did until Hightower apparently convinced Rhaegar that his family and dynasty was gone if he did not raise an army to defend them). But prior to that, all evidence seems to be that Rhaegar did put his head in the sand -- we sort of know that -- he could have gone back sooner and did not -- so what else would someone call that behavior.

When I say on the run from the rebels -- I mean they could not try to smuggle themselves into rebel territory for safety. They were as much or even more at risk in those areas given that Rheagar was considered their enemy. So being seen in either Targ or rebel controlled areas would be dangerous -- thus the reason to hand out in a long-abandoned tower with a small cadre and assistance, presumably, from a relatively close ally (assuming Arthur was able to get his most loyal people to help them).

And where exactly is Lyanna going to want to go? And how is she going to get there? Sitting out the war -- especially if she is in love with Rhaegar -- really could have been seen by her as her only option. I don't see the logic for indicating that at some point she changed her mind and Rhaegar put guards on her to restrain her until she "came to her senses" -- maybe, but I am not convinced. She had no where to go and no way to get there even if she had a place to go. She was in the middle of Targ controlled territory -- with Winterfell thousands of miles away. Waiting out the war at ToJ really was her only realistic option, and no matter how head-strong she might have been, that seems like it would have been obvious to her.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaegar should be capable of protecting his wife from his father. Lyanna's use as a hostage is obviously non-existent. The Targaryens had her the entire war, but the prospect of Rhaegar or Aerys killing her did not stop the rebels.

And Robert is a non-issue here. I agree that he might not like what Lyanna did, but she could still address Eddard Stark, her brother - and he is the one marrying Catelyn Tully, not Robert. If Ned and with him Hoster had decided end the rebellion, Robert's cause would have died.

Rhaegar could not be sure he would be able to keep her safe from Aerys. You admitted above they were hiding out from Aerys. He was erratic and unstable. He just killed her father and brother and trying to kill her other brother. Whether Aerys would use Lyanna as a hostage -- just kill her -- or just imprison her (as he sort of was doing with Rhaegar's other wife and children--even if a "gilded cage"), Aerys was a danger to Lyanna. Rhaegar could not take the risk of Aerys getting hold of Lyanna, and Rhaegar and Lyanna likely saw the situation that way.

As to Robert -- again, it is unclear what would have happened if she tried to return north. For one, it would make it more difficult to be with Rhaegar and he certainly could not go there with her. But if she did return, she would return having disobeyed her father -- and arguably causing his and Brandon's deaths. She had no reason to believe she could convince Ned to withdraw troops from the battle -- certainly not as long as Aerys remained king. So while her risk from the rebels may not be quite as severe as her risk from Aerys -- it certainly was a potential risk that if she were being wise, she would not want to chance it.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She would not have blamed him for Aerys' actions as such, but if your father-in-law killed your father and brother I assume your relationship to and feelings for your spouse would get at least 'complicated', no? Not to mention she may have blamed herself and Rhaegar for what had transpired - had Rhaegar not 'abducted her' (assuming she was complicit in the thing - and only Rhaegar if she had indeed been abducted) Rickard and Brandon would still be alive and there wouldn't be a war.

But later, when Rhaegar decided to actually defend the madman and his throne she may have not been willing to support him in this. I mean, if this was such a great love story then why wasn't Lyanna with Rhaegar? Or at least closer to him - with friends at Harrenhal or Maidenpool? Just dumping her in the middle of nowhere is at least odd.

They stayed together for quite a while after the executions and before Rheagar returns to KL. Whatever effect those events had on their relationship -- likely long resolved by the time Rhaegar leaves for KL. And given that I think we agree she was not being kept against her will for the entire time, those actions by Aerys should not really be an issue with respect to the relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna by the time Rhaegar leaves for KL.

But I think your point about Rhaegar going to "defend the madman" is the critical point you seem to be making -- that Lyanna would be upset that Rhaegar was no longer "sitting out the war" -- as they apparently had agreed to do. And here you might have a point. Maybe they squabbled over him leaving. But that does not mean she was kept against her will. As I have said before, I don't think she had anywhere to go or any way to get anywhere else. But I think your analysis really loses me in terms of your point about Rhaegar not keeping her closer to him. If he did -- she would be in more danger. Anywhere where she might be spotted and the location reported back to Aerys puts Lyanna in danger. He did not just "dump her" at ToJ -- they had been staying in hiding at ToJ. The name itself -- tower of JOY -- named by Rhaegar -- is a strong indication that their "love nest" for the past period of time was at that tower. A long-abandoned guard post close to people they could trust (assuming, again, help from the Daynes) is a good place to lay low. They had been hiding there because it was the safest place to hide -- and after Rhaegar left for KL it remained the safest place for her to hide. ToJ serves no better as a place to hold her hostage than it does a place to keep her hidden from Aerys.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But there is no reason to believe that this was the point why she was at the tower and only with three KG. It could be the case, but there is no reason that they couldn't have dyed her hair and hidden her with the Daynes at Starfall, say, or at some other castle where Rhaegar had friends.

Keeping her away from maesters and ravens and lords also has the effect that she cannot try intervene or influence the war. Cannot send messages to Ned or Robert. And the Kingsguard are the men most likely to obey Rhaegar to the letter - other men might be willing to persuaded or bribed or threatened by a woman like Lyanna Stark - daughter and sister to a great lord, and betrothed to a man who would topple the Targaryen dynasty. Not to mention the future queen if she was actually married to Rhaegar.

Here you also really lose me. Of course she is safer staying somewhere that no one else goes than to put her in some castle where there is some risk of her being recognized and reported to Aerys. While I suspect that some at Starfall would be helping (they get supplies somehow), the castle has a lot of people and not all can be trusted. Lyanna's presence -- even in disguise -- would be way too risky -- people would try to find out more about this woman showing up out of nowhere in the middle of the war.

How is a message from Lyanna going to influence the war? What could she possibly tell Ned or Robert that would change the course of the war? Tell them to come rescue her? How are they going to do that -- they need to win the war first -- which they are trying to do in any event. She has no information relevant to the war that they don't have.  So while I think that the KG obeying to the letter is important -- i.e., they are not going to "rat them out" to Aerys (as long as they are not directly confronted by Aerys -- a reason why all three need to stay at ToJ and cannot go back to KL until after the war) -- it is not important for keeping Lyanna from escaping. She has nowhere to escape to--and no evidence she wanted to escape (although admittedly, not clear evidence either way). But what evidence we have seems to be at least as supportive of ToJ being used as the best place to hide from Aerys as the best place to keep Lyanna from escaping.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She cannot have been that pregnant when Rhaegar left, due to the time passing between him leaving and her death - unless we assume Jon was already weeks or months old when she died.

And it also makes no sense that Rhaegar would leave her when she was so pregnant, or that he would take a woman in the advanced stages of her pregnancy to a tower in the middle of nowhere. All that would be irresponsible and weird.

Good point about stage of pregnancy -- I think you are probably right about her not being that far along when Rhaegar goes to KL. I had always thought she was about 6 months pregnant when Rhaegar left for KL, but you are probably correct that she was not nearly that far along. But as to staying at ToJ during pregnancy -- I am not sure they had a better place to go. Again, they are hiding her from Aerys. They were presumably getting supplies. This time period is roughly like Middle Ages -- so no hospital to give birth -- no indoor plumbing in the houses (or castles). The tower was probably as good a place to stay and wait for the baby as any place -- as long as they could get a trusted midwife/nurse maid to assist (Wyla perhaps).

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

See above. Not if he feared she would do or tell things with other people close-by that those people were not supposed to hear. Lyanna isn't a person to be easily cowed.

See above -- not much more to add on these points.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They already have.

Nay, for that they could just be two names in a family tree, about as important to the plot as Lyarra Stark is at this point. But they are not. Rhaegar is especially important for a lot of stuff due to prophecy stuff (which didn't need to be given to him at all).

Well, you could say that about pretty much anything. Why did George waste pages on Tytos and Joanna and Aerys and Rickard and Brandon? Why bore us with stories of the Blackfyre rebellions and the War of the Ninepenny Kings or the Greyjoy Rebellion?

And, hell, why care about Jon's parentage at all? Isn't it more important what the guy does rather than who fucked whom to conceive him?

At this point it is clear that the story of the past (both the recent and the very distant past - Others, etc.) is as much part of the story as the actual story. And just as the main story continues we'll get more and more details on the past as well - and very few of that will only be window-dressing.

OK--I undersold their importance to the story and the extent to which there is more of their story to tell. But as stated above, the interesting part will be about how they got together -- the apparent "kidnapping" that perhaps was not really a kidnapping. No need to add a "real" kidnapping charge to Rhaegar by having him keep Lyanna against her will in the end for the story not to be a fairy tale -- as noted above, this "love story" is quite far from a fairly tale no matter what additional details end up being given. GRRM likes "gray" characters -- but no need to make Rhaegar that "gray" by having him hold Lyanna against her will as his last act towards her. So we will probably get a lot more detail about them -- but I still don't think it will involve Rhaegar preventing Lyanna from leaving ToJ against her will (or involve Rhaegar going public about Lyanna being pregnant -- or his marriage -- maybe he told someone something -- like he told Jaime that things would change after the war -- but whatever he told to whomever he told it likely was done only confidentially).

War-torn lovers with perhaps her begging him not to leave her but him telling her that he has no choice and he wishes he could stay -- is sad enough. GRRM does not need to turn Rhaegar into an actual kidnapper to make the story interesting or tragic.

[Ser Leftwich]

43 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

SNIP

Good point about stage of pregnancy -- I think you are probably right about her not being that far along when Rhaegar goes to KL. I had always thought she was about 6 months pregnant when Rhaegar left for KL, but you are probably correct that she was not nearly that far along. But as to staying at ToJ during pregnancy -- I am not sure they had a better place to go. Again, they are hiding her from Aerys. They were presumably getting supplies. This time period is roughly like Middle Ages -- so no hospital to give birth -- no indoor plumbing in the houses (or castles). The tower was probably as good a place to stay and wait for the baby as any place -- as long as they could get a trusted midwife/nurse maid to assist (Wyla perhaps).

SNIP

Years ago there was some discussion that they only choose to hold up at the ToJ because they discovered/confirmed/acknowledged the pregnancy. They were en route from A to B, but decided to halt there, either because Lyanna was already having issues or to ensure the best outcome (Lyanna no longer travelling). Rhaegar called it the ToJ because his joy at the prospect of a child, not because of it being a love-nest.

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 minute ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Years ago there was some discussion that they only choose to hold up at the ToJ because they discovered/confirmed/acknowledged the pregnancy. They were en route from A to B, but decided to halt there, either because Lyanna was already having issues or to ensure the best outcome (Lyanna no longer travelling). Rhaegar called it the ToJ because his joy at the prospect of a child, not because of it being a love-nest.

I don't recall that particular discussion -- but it does not sound likely to me. I am more convinced by the argument that they were waiting out the war at ToJ because it seemed like a good place not to get noticed by either side and was close to Arthur's people. I suspect Rhaegar considered his time there to be the happiest for him -- thus the name.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Good points. You are almost certainly right that there is more important information to be told about their story. I just think the more interesting aspects will relate to how they got together than what quarrels they might have had before Rhaegar left for KL. But certainly GRRM is interested in telling the readers more about what happened between them and has been hamstrung by not wanting to be too definitive about things that need to be kept under wraps until Jon's parentage is ready to be revealed. And I had almost forgotten that Howland Reed is still alive and has not yet appeared in the story -- probably not a coincidence because he just knows too much.

TWoIaF gave us good hints as to where the blank spots in their story are - what happened at Harrenhal as such, Rhaegar's journey, his decision to take Lyanna, the actual taking, what happened thereafter, what led to them disappearing, and what they did thereafter. And, of course, how all the other parties - Aerys, Brandon/Rickard, Robert, Ned, etc. thought and did when they got news of them.

That's not only crucial for the war but also for their personal stories and their assessment of the situation. We got some pretty good information on the things leading up to Harrenhal but essentially nothing after Rhaegar left Dragonstone.

The idea that we *really* know a lot about the war and Lyanna/Rhaegar is pretty presumptuous. I mean, many people likely thought they knew who murdered Jon Arryn - and where then pretty surprised in ASoS. Others thought they knew what kind of person Jaime was - until ASoS.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Throughout Westeros (other than perhaps some lingering Targ loyalists or Rhaegar acquaintances) -- the "official" story that everyone seems to tell (even the Stark children) is that Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar. They might not talk about rape specifically, but almost everyone seems not to question that Rhaegar took Lyanna and kept her against her will for over a year. And while Dany states that Rhaegar loved Lyanna -- that statement can still be consistent with the notion that he was obsessed with her and kidnapped -- as everyone else seems to believe (Dany did not say that Lyanna loved him back). We already know that this "love story" ends fairly tragically, whatever other details get filled in -- no fairy tale if one dies in battle and the other dies shortly after giving birth to their son.

It is not important whether there was an abduction or not. There may have been one even if Lyanna went willingly (because she was under the protection of men-at-arms who refused to let her go). The important thing is whether they were in love or not, and there were already sufficient hints to assume that this may have been the case as early as AGoT. But there were a ton more such hints in the later books.

This doesn't mean, thought, that theirs was a perfect romance. It may have had its twists and turns.

And the 'rape story' as such would actually just be a slight distortion by Robert. There was a marriage contract there. Lyanna was not free to choose her spouse, and Rhaegar did come between a man and his betrothed. Even if everything was consensual Rhaegar could still be a 'rapist' in Robert's eyes without Robert being completely delusional.

But the important thing: We don't know what 'the official story' is. We don't know what people know about Rhaegar and Lyanna, the nature of their relationship, their feelings for each other - we have no clue. The only one going with 'the rape story' is Robert.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Given that their families were fighting each other -- I think that staying out of the war does seem to have been their intent (it certainly is what they actually did until Hightower apparently convinced Rhaegar that his family and dynasty was gone if he did not raise an army to defend them). But prior to that, all evidence seems to be that Rhaegar did put his head in the sand -- we sort of know that -- he could have gone back sooner and did not -- so what else would someone call that behavior.

We have no evidence to assess here. All we know is that Rhaegar and Lyanna disappeared and then Rhaegar returned. What led to that we do not know. It makes little sense to pretend we do, and then fill the blanks with speculation about their motivation which, at this point, is completely unknown to us.

What I cannot believe is the idea that Rhaegar took Lyanna and then disappeared with her of his own free will. That makes no sense at all. He must have had a very good reason to that, something that forced him to do that and stay away even after the Lyanna's family had been imprisoned and a war broken out.

This war was fought in no small part for Lyanna Stark. Yes, Aerys was an issue, too, but not for Robert Baratheon. He wanted his Lyanna back, and he wanted to beat Rhaegar to pulp. Rhaegar and Lyanna together could have made a tremendous influence on Robert's deluded narrative of fighting a war for love - and that is his story. We get that from Brienne. If Lyanna had appeared at Rhaegar's side as his wife Robert would have become a spurned suitor, not a man fighting for love. He would have become to butt of jokes, not a man people idealized and cheered.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

When I say on the run from the rebels -- I mean they could not try to smuggle themselves into rebel territory for safety. They were as much or even more at risk in those areas given that Rheagar was considered their enemy. So being seen in either Targ or rebel controlled areas would be dangerous -- thus the reason to hand out in a long-abandoned tower with a small cadre and assistance, presumably, from a relatively close ally (assuming Arthur was able to get his most loyal people to help them).

You make it sounds as if there were 'rebel' and 'loyalist' territories. That is not so. There were armies and battles, but there is no sign that the kingdoms were split in two, or that it was dangerous to travel if you avoided the armies. And everybody chancing on Rhaegar/Lyanna would have to make a decision - never mind to whom he was technically sworn. Just look how the Lords Borrell dealt with both Ned and Davos when they showed up on their island.

But for most of the war only the North, the Vale, and the Stormlands were 'rebel territory' - and the latter in the hands of the Tyrells rather quickly after the beginning of the war.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

And where exactly is Lyanna going to want to go? And how is she going to get there? Sitting out the war -- especially if she is in love with Rhaegar -- really could have been seen by her as her only option. I don't see the logic for indicating that at some point she changed her mind and Rhaegar put guards on her to restrain her until she "came to her senses" -- maybe, but I am not convinced. She had no where to go and no way to get there even if she had a place to go. She was in the middle of Targ controlled territory -- with Winterfell thousands of miles away. Waiting out the war at ToJ really was her only realistic option, and no matter how head-strong she might have been, that seems like it would have been obvious to her.

No, it does not. Not if you care how the author introduced and portrayed Lyanna. This wasn't a woman sitting on her ass and pondering her option. She did what she wanted to do, not what she should do. A woman doing that wouldn't have stood up for Howland, wouldn't have donned armor and ridden in a tourney as a mystery knight, wouldn't have trained at arms with her younger brother as a child, etc.

Sitting out the war is a ridiculous thing on part of both Rhaegar and Lyanna. It might mean that their loved ones die without them, and then their enemies come to put them down, too. If Aerys had successfully put down the rebels without Rhaegar chances are not that bad that the father would have rid himself of the son, too. His actions were the cause of the war, and thus he would have been one of the people to blame - Aerys would have never blamed himself. And him hiding could be construed as treason.

And Lyanna - man, what would you do in her situation, with her character? It makes no sense to assume she wanted to sit on her ass.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Rhaegar could not be sure he would be able to keep her safe from Aerys. You admitted above they were hiding out from Aerys. He was erratic and unstable. He just killed her father and brother and trying to kill her other brother. Whether Aerys would use Lyanna as a hostage -- just kill her -- or just imprison her (as he sort of was doing with Rhaegar's other wife and children--even if a "gilded cage"), Aerys was a danger to Lyanna. Rhaegar could not take the risk of Aerys getting hold of Lyanna, and Rhaegar and Lyanna likely saw the situation that way.

Sure, but even if Rhaegar had kept Lyanna at his side there is no indication that Aerys could have seized Lyanna against Rhaegar's will. And even if we assume that - Aerys was in the Red Keep. Rhaegar could have kept Lyanna with men he trusted, he could have put her in some house in the city (like Tyrion did with Shae), he could have kept her with friends in the Crownlands or Riverlands.

I didn't say Rhaegar was obliged to bring Lyanna in Aerys' presence - but considering that he actually married her, as we believe, it is also odd to hide her. A man who feels he has to hide or cannot stand with his woman is no man at all - at least in this setting.

And that's also the reason why I don't think Rhaegar kept his marriage to Lyanna a secret after his return - he had no possible reason to do so. If I were Rhaegar and had had the audacity to pull the shit he did I'd not deny what I had done. I would proudly tell the world that I defied reason, tradition, even sanity to be with the woman that I love.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

As to Robert -- again, it is unclear what would have happened if she tried to return north. For one, it would make it more difficult to be with Rhaegar and he certainly could not go there with her. But if she did return, she would return having disobeyed her father -- and arguably causing his and Brandon's deaths. She had no reason to believe she could convince Ned to withdraw troops from the battle -- certainly not as long as Aerys remained king. So while her risk from the rebels may not be quite as severe as her risk from Aerys -- it certainly was a potential risk that if she were being wise, she would not want to chance it.

Well, in light of the fact that her family and the Targaryens and Robert were ripping the Realm to pieces and killing a lot of people it makes little sense for her to hide behind stuff like that. If she feared Ned would punish her, etc. she would just be a cowardly and selfish woman.

Lyanna was ideally situated to try to make a peace between all involved - she was Robert's betrothed, Ned's sister, and, presumably, Rhaegar's wife.

Perhaps she would have failed - but it is odd that she never made the attempt. She could have written letters, she could have send envoys, and she could have shown up herself - under a peace banner, and with men-at-arms to protect her, of course.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

They stayed together for quite a while after the executions and before Rheagar returns to KL. Whatever effect those events had on their relationship -- likely long resolved by the time Rhaegar leaves for KL. And given that I think we agree she was not being kept against her will for the entire time, those actions by Aerys should not really be an issue with respect to the relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna by the time Rhaegar leaves for KL.

We just don't know. We don't know anything at all about any of that.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

But I think your point about Rhaegar going to "defend the madman" is the critical point you seem to be making -- that Lyanna would be upset that Rhaegar was no longer "sitting out the war" -- as they apparently had agreed to do.

No reason they agreed to anything about that. It would depend on when exactly they learned that Aerys was no longer out to get Rhaegar - around the time Connington became Hand, but we don't know how quickly that news reached Rhaegar. 

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

And here you might have a point. Maybe they squabbled over him leaving. But that does not mean she was kept against her will. As I have said before, I don't think she had anywhere to go or any way to get anywhere else. But I think your analysis really loses me in terms of your point about Rhaegar not keeping her closer to him. If he did -- she would be in more danger. Anywhere where she might be spotted and the location reported back to Aerys puts Lyanna in danger.

Aerys isn't omnipotent. Leaving Lyanna alone in his castle might be a considerable risk. Putting her in castle filled with Rhaegar's men should keep Lyanna perfectly safe.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

He did not just "dump her" at ToJ -- they had been staying in hiding at ToJ. The name itself -- tower of JOY -- named by Rhaegar -- is a strong indication that their "love nest" for the past period of time was at that tower. A long-abandoned guard post close to people they could trust (assuming, again, help from the Daynes) is a good place to lay low. They had been hiding there because it was the safest place to hide -- and after Rhaegar left for KL it remained the safest place for her to hide. ToJ serves no better as a place to hold her hostage than it does a place to keep her hidden from Aerys.

That is no way a given. Yes, the name implies the tower had considerable meaning for Rhaegar, but it doesn't tell us why he named it that way, nor how much time he and Lyanna spent there. We also have no reason to believe Rhaegar and Lyanna lived at the same place for weeks or even months. It is very easy to fall in that trap, but we have, at this point, no textual evidence for such a scenario.

Why Rhaegar called the tower the way he did we'll only know when George tells us, and not before.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Here you also really lose me. Of course she is safer staying somewhere that no one else goes than to put her in some castle where there is some risk of her being recognized and reported to Aerys. While I suspect that some at Starfall would be helping (they get supplies somehow), the castle has a lot of people and not all can be trusted. Lyanna's presence -- even in disguise -- would be way too risky -- people would try to find out more about this woman showing up out of nowhere in the middle of the war.

That is just a baseless claim on your part. I could just as well claim that they weren't safe in the tower, either, because some Aerys crony could just come walking through the mountains and spot them.

And Aerys knowing where they are doesn't mean he and his people can come and get them. Starfall is a strong castle, and it is Dorne, far away from Aerys' direct power. Doran Martell is not likely to march against the Daynes just because Aerys says he should do that.

Stannis shows how long you can hold out in a castle. You can't do that in a watchtower.

And the idea that Lyanna's location was supposed to be some great secret is defeated by the notion that Rhaegar himself returns to court. Aerys could have asked him where Lyanna was - and he could asked him sharply if he refused to tell it. The idea that Rhaegar could be perfectly sure his father wouldn't do it makes no sense because we know Aerys is a madman. And Aerys wasn't at the tower with Hightower when Rhaegar made the choice to return. He didn't have a measure of his father's mood and determination so he could not possibly have been sure it was safe for him to return.

Not to mention that Aerys/Varys may have told Hightower where to find Rhaegar in the first place. We don't know how the man got there - perhaps he found the tower 'all by himself' perhaps with some help. And that could have come from Aerys himself.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

How is a message from Lyanna going to influence the war? What could she possibly tell Ned or Robert that would change the course of the war? Tell them to come rescue her? How are they going to do that -- they need to win the war first -- which they are trying to do in any event. She has no information relevant to the war that they don't have.  

She could have tried to reach out to everyone to try to make a peace. And not just late in the war but also earlier in the war.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

So while I think that the KG obeying to the letter is important -- i.e., they are not going to "rat them out" to Aerys (as long as they are not directly confronted by Aerys -- a reason why all three need to stay at ToJ and cannot go back to KL until after the war) -- it is not important for keeping Lyanna from escaping. She has nowhere to escape to--and no evidence she wanted to escape (although admittedly, not clear evidence either way). But what evidence we have seems to be at least as supportive of ToJ being used as the best place to hide from Aerys as the best place to keep Lyanna from escaping.

There is no indication that anyone wanted to keep Lyanna safe or away from Aerys while they were at the tower. No indication whatsoever. And, you know, one assumes that a letter bearing the king's seal and written and signed by the king's own hand should have been enough for Kingsguard to obey their king. Using KG to protect somebody from the king is in general a very silly idea.

I mean, if Aerys wanted Lyanna as a hostage he could have commanded Hightower to deliver her to him when he sent him out to find Rhaegar, no? How could Rhaegar be sure that Aerys didn't give Hightower such an order? How could he be sure the king hadn't commanded the Lord Commander to lie to Rhaegar?

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Good point about stage of pregnancy -- I think you are probably right about her not being that far along when Rhaegar goes to KL. I had always thought she was about 6 months pregnant when Rhaegar left for KL, but you are probably correct that she was not nearly that far along. But as to staying at ToJ during pregnancy -- I am not sure they had a better place to go. Again, they are hiding her from Aerys. They were presumably getting supplies. This time period is roughly like Middle Ages -- so no hospital to give birth -- no indoor plumbing in the houses (or castles). The tower was probably as good a place to stay and wait for the baby as any place -- as long as they could get a trusted midwife/nurse maid to assist (Wyla perhaps).

Well, I don't think that makes much sense. In no scenario a tower in the middle of nowhere without proper accommodations for a woman of high birth is a proper place for her to give birth. And there is simply no indication that Lyanna Stark was in any immediate danger from any side. As long as George doesn't give us any such clues we have just 'What if...' and 'Wouldn't it be cool...' scenarios.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

OK--I undersold their importance to the story and the extent to which there is more of their story to tell. But as stated above, the interesting part will be about how they got together -- the apparent "kidnapping" that perhaps was not really a kidnapping. No need to add a "real" kidnapping charge to Rhaegar by having him keep Lyanna against her will in the end for the story not to be a fairy tale -- as noted above, this "love story" is quite far from a fairly tale no matter what additional details end up being given. GRRM likes "gray" characters -- but no need to make Rhaegar that "gray" by having him hold Lyanna against her will as his last act towards her. So we will probably get a lot more detail about them -- but I still don't think it will involve Rhaegar preventing Lyanna from leaving ToJ against her will (or involve Rhaegar going public about Lyanna being pregnant -- or his marriage -- maybe he told someone something -- like he told Jaime that things would change after the war -- but whatever he told to whomever he told it likely was done only confidentially).

Well, if they were husband and wife the lord husband decides what his lady wife does and what she doesn't do. This is not a society where women are equal to men, no? Rhaegar can love his Lyanna and still decide to imprison her 'for her own good'. Those things are not mutually exclusive. And Rhaegar doesn't come across as a particularly dutiful husband, anyway, considering the way he treated Elia.

4 hours ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Years ago there was some discussion that they only choose to hold up at the ToJ because they discovered/confirmed/acknowledged the pregnancy. They were en route from A to B, but decided to halt there, either because Lyanna was already having issues or to ensure the best outcome (Lyanna no longer travelling). Rhaegar called it the ToJ because his joy at the prospect of a child, not because of it being a love-nest.

I tossed around that idea, too, once. George often gives people names - Baelon the Brave, Daeron the Daring, Barristan the Bold - which imply certain things, and then - when we do learn the truth - such names did not originate where we thought they did but actually contain some sort of interesting twist. This is clearly a pattern in his writing.

Rhaegar could have named the the place 'the tower of joy' because they had finally reached a dry place after a day of bad weather. It could have been the place where they were when they first learned Lyanna was pregnant. It could be irony, referring to the fact that the place is, in fact, a very ugly and unpleasant place, not joyful at all.

It could also be a place where they spent much time and had a lot of great sex - but this is not a given.

4 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I don't recall that particular discussion -- but it does not sound likely to me. I am more convinced by the argument that they were waiting out the war at ToJ because it seemed like a good place not to get noticed by either side and was close to Arthur's people. I suspect Rhaegar considered his time there to be the happiest for him -- thus the name.

The tower of joy is not even remotely close to Starfall or Arthur's people. Many other castles are much closer.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

On 7/18/2018 at 6:01 PM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but even if Rhaegar had kept Lyanna at his side there is no indication that Aerys could have seized Lyanna against Rhaegar's will. And even if we assume that - Aerys was in the Red Keep. Rhaegar could have kept Lyanna with men he trusted, he could have put her in some house in the city (like Tyrion did with Shae), he could have kept her with friends in the Crownlands or Riverlands.

There's nothing that says he didn't, though. Because Ned found everyone at the ToJ doesn't mean they were there for the whole war. I think there's a good possibility that they were at some castle until they found out the last allies of Targaryen, the Reach in this case, bent the knee to Robert. 

I don't know, for me personally, it's a stretch that this tower in the desert, that cannot really be defended, would have been where four people would have stayed for months and months and received messages about what was going on in the war. 

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Widow's Watch said:

There's nothing that says he didn't, though. Because Ned found everyone at the ToJ doesn't mean they were there for the whole war. I think there's a good possibility that they were at some castle until they found out the last allies of Targaryen, the Reach in this case, bent the knee to Robert. 

Sure, that's also a possibility. But then the fact that Rhaegar named the tower is somewhat odd. Where they then there before together? Could certainly be possible.

Just now, Widow's Watch said:

I don't know, for me personally, it's a stretch that this tower in the desert, that cannot really be defended, would have been where four people would have stayed for months and months and received messages about what was going on in the war, even though allegedly, no one knew where they were. 

Certainly. The idea that anyone would stay long at a place like that is pretty ridiculous. Which is why George has to come up with a good reason why they were there - especially if they were there for a longer period of time.

I'm pretty sure Lyanna and Rhaegar stayed on the move during the time they were together. What Lyanna and the KG did is not clear. At the end of the pregnancy they certainly couldn't have traveled around all that much but 1-2 months before Lya was due it could have still been done if they felt they had to.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I do have a couple of ideas where they might have stayed. We do have one of Rhaegar's companions who is still unaccounted for. Whether Lem is Richard Lonmouth remains to be seen. But that's a good place to hide if his House is fighting on the Targaryen side, which I think they would. Once Rhaegar is killed on the Trident and King's Landing is sacked with the results that we know, it's just time to go. Everyone could have been making their way south after that. 

That's idea 1. Idea 2 is a bit far fetched.

[Lord Varys]

12 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I do have a couple of ideas where they might have stayed. We do have one of Rhaegar's companions who is still unaccounted for. Whether Lem is Richard Lonmouth remains to be seen. But that's a good place to hide if his House is fighting on the Targaryen side, which I think they would. Once Rhaegar is killed on the Trident and King's Landing is sacked with the results that we know, it's just time to go. Everyone could have been making their way south after that. 

That's idea 1. Idea 2 is a bit far fetched.

The idea I've tossed around and like pretty well is that they went from Harrenhal to Maidenpool, the place of the lovers Florian and Jonquil, where they would have been welcome since Rhaegar's buddy and former squire was Myles Mooton. Maidenpool would be the perfect place for their wedding. And from there they may have run away by ship after things exploded, presumably when Aerys II demanded another Lord Mooton deliver the head of another 'whore' to KL - or, perhaps, the heads of birth a whore and a traitor.

By ship they could first have gone to a Free City and then from there to Starfall (stopping at other Free Cities, the Arbor, and Oldtown along the way) And when they were leaving Dorne overland they ended up at that tower.

The Stormlands are a very unlikely place for them, and far too dangerous. And Richard Lonmouth is not known as a powerful landed knight or the son of a lord with a strong castle.

The fact that Lonmouth wasn't with Connington and Mooton at Stoney Sept could indicate he stayed with Rhaegar and returned with him to KL to march with him to the Trident. Assuming Lonmouth was one of Rhaegar's original companions, of course.

[Alia of the knife]

Just an isolated question, can we be sure that Lyanna would have immediately been told of her family’s fate? Or might that have been kept from her, especially given she was pregnant?

[Lord Varys]

36 minutes ago, Alia of the knife said:

Just an isolated question, can we be sure that Lyanna would have immediately been told of her family’s fate? Or might that have been kept from her, especially given she was pregnant?

We cannot be sure, but we can be pretty sure that it would be, well, very unrealistic that neither she nor Rhaegar would have heard about that long before Lyanna even was pregnant. I mean, Brandon went to KL immediately after the abduction, and it shouldn't have taken long for Aerys to kill him and the others. And we don't know whether Rhaegar and Lyanna were already hiding at that time.

But even if they did - stuff like that does spread. Just remember how Jaime learns about Joff's death or the Red Wedding. Or take Dunk & Egg learning about Daeron II's death, Aerys I's ascension, Bloodraven's rise to power, and the quarrel between Maekar and the king.

Even at the tower they would not have been in total isolation - even if they went there early on (which isn't all that likely). And once the news about the war which also began was out, the reason behind the war would also be part of every tale and rumor about the war.

[Ygrain]

6 hours ago, Alia of the knife said:

Just an isolated question, can we be sure that Lyanna would have immediately been told of her family’s fate? Or might that have been kept from her, especially given she was pregnant?

Might have been very probably, IMHO.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

On 7/20/2018 at 12:28 PM, Lord Varys said:

The idea I've tossed around and like pretty well is that they went from Harrenhal to Maidenpool, the place of the lovers Florian and Jonquil, where they would have been welcome since Rhaegar's buddy and former squire was Myles Mooton. Maidenpool would be the perfect place for their wedding. And from there they may have run away by ship after things exploded, presumably when Aerys II demanded another Lord Mooton deliver the head of another 'whore' to KL - or, perhaps, the heads of birth a whore and a traitor.

So I am most definitely in the minority, but I don't think they married right away, the same way I don't think they were planning on running away together either. I think the marriage came after Aerys had Brandon and Rickard executed and demanded the heads of Ned and Robert.

That said, I can definitely see them getting on a ship. It's the idea of them having spent all their time at the ToJ that doesn't sit with me.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

So I am most definitely in the minority, but I don't think they married right away, the same way I don't think they were planning on running away together either. I think the marriage came after Aerys had Brandon and Rickard executed and demanded the heads of Ned and Robert.

That would be odd considering that they could have been easily separated if they would not marry and consummate their marriage as quickly as they could. If Aerys or Robert or Rickard got to them before doing that then the chances are enormously high that they would have been separated permanently.

4 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

That said, I can definitely see them getting on a ship. It's the idea of them having spent all their time at the ToJ that doesn't sit with me.

I don't think that idea sits very well with anyone who really tries to treat these two people as *real people* or the Lyanna-Rhaegar story as more than back story of little importance. And since they are obviously complex characters they would have had their own agendas and designs immediately before and during the war. And the chance that they where limited to *sitting in the middle of nowhere having sex in some uncomfortable tower* is really as odd as it sounds.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would be odd considering that they could have been easily separated if they would not marry and consummate their marriage as quickly as they could. If Aerys or Robert or Rickard got to them before doing that then the chances are enormously high that they would have been separated permanently.

I tend to go off the idea that Aerys found out that Lyanna was the KotLT and Staunton and Chelsted telling Aerys that Lyanna was crowned QoLaB for political reasons and presenting it as proof that Rhaegar was plotting against his father.

Rhaegar finds out that Aerys knows about Lyanna being the KotLT, so he moves to retrieve her, for no other reason than to protect her. Maybe the intent is that he will return her to her family as soon as Aerys has calmed down, or to keep her out of harm's way until her own marriage to Robert to show his father he has no designs on her. 

Brandon goes on his dumb dumb ride to King's Landing and gets arrested. Rickard is summoned to King's Landing. Both are killed, along with men from other Houses and allegedly 200 northmen. But Aerys is not content with just that. Ned is in the Vale. And so is Robert. He calls for their head. 

The danger became all too real and Aerys is unpredictable. Would he have stopped himself if Jon Arryn had delivered Ned and Robert's heads?

I think this is when the marriage could have happened, consummated and whatever else came after.  

This is how I personally work it out. People with good intentions in the story tend to get kicked in the face for their troubles.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think that idea sits very well with anyone who really tries to treat these two people as *real people* or the Lyanna-Rhaegar story as more than back story of little importance. And since they are obviously complex characters they would have had their own agendas and designs immediately before and during the war. And the chance that they where limited to *sitting in the middle of nowhere having sex in some uncomfortable tower* is really as odd as it sounds.

I think the backstory is important enough. 

That said, I wouldn't question a year in the ToJ if it was located somewhere in say the riverlands. Dorne is the desert, there seems to be nothing around the tower. Arianne in the Queenmaker chapter says that when a well runs dry, settlements move on and she uses Shandystone as an example. These people need to eat and drink and wash and they need fodder for their horses. 

[Geddus]

19 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Rhaegar finds out that Aerys knows about Lyanna being the KotLT, so he moves to retrieve her, for no other reason than to protect her. Maybe the intent is that he will return her to her family as soon as Aerys has calmed down, or to keep her out of harm's way until her own marriage to Robert to show his father he has no designs on her. 

So he takes her from Harrenhal and brings her to Dorne while her family is, or is about to be, at Riverrun to celebrate her oldest brother's wedding.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

5 hours ago, Geddus said:

So he takes her from Harrenhal and brings her to Dorne while her family is, or is about to be, at Riverrun to celebrate her oldest brother's wedding.

You think he took her from Harrenhal, so . . .

If Rickard is commanded by Aerys to give up his daughter, but Rickard doesn't have her, then he can't give her up.

I think that Rhaegar was headed to Riverrun himself if he was still looking to pursue whatever plans he had at Harrenhal that went to hell when Aerys decided to go. Hoster Tully, Rickard Stark, Robert and likely Jon Arryn were all going to be in attendance at Brandon and Catelyn's wedding. They might be there a few days before the wedding and stay there a few days after. Rhaegar would never have another opportunity like that to garner the support he needs to call a great council or whatever it is he had in mind. 

[Geddus]

The World Book says Rhaegar "fell on" Lyanna near Harrenhal.

I think returning Lyanna to her family to protect her from Aerys would have been slightly more likely to gain said family's support than disappearing with her without explaination.