R+L=J v.165

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The distinction is noted, but not pertinent to the poster's hypothetical, as both had occurred by the time Ned learned about Jon and any Targaryen claim he might have had, and besides, Ned had already renounced the Targaryens and their claims, rights, and successions long before either of those things, when "they had ridden forth to win a throne" (AGOT: Eddard I).

Sure, I'm not making his case. But it is an interesting question what Ned would have done if Prince X, the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna would have been revealed around the time of the Trident or even before the Sack.

This could have had considerable political repercussions on the side of the rebels, especially with Ned.

I think we can reasonably be sure that Ned never wanted to make Lyanna's son king. But that doesn't mean the thought never crossed his mind, both back in the tower and later, when Robert Baratheon died and it fell to Eddard Stark to see to the succession.

The quote you give about the ride to win a throne is post hoc. It is does not reflect Ned's knowledge or intentions at the time back then - at least to our knowledge. Who knows, perhaps Ned and Robert and Jon already made plans to seat Robert on the throne back in the Vale? We don't know yet, at this point. 

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

He clearly didn't believe that the death of all Targaryens was necessary to placing Robert on the throne. Rhaegar was killed at the Battle of the Trident, and it seems likely that Aerys would have been properly executed had they captured him alive, but Ned was furious about the murder of Rhaegar's children at the time it happened, presumably before he is aware of Jon, and is vehemently against the murder of Daenerys and her unborn child in AGOT.

We don't know what Ned knew about Rhaegar/Lyanna by the time he heard Robert talk about dragonspawn. He could have learned about Lyanna's pregnancy at the Trident or in KL. In fact, the fact he took it upon himself to look for his sister and eventually approached the tower with only a couple of good friends and trusted retainers might indicate that he already had a pretty good picture of what to expect there (a married and pregnant Lyanna).

How Ned thought Robert could take the throne without making the other Targaryens go away is unclear to me at this point. There were ways to remove them, other ways than killing them, sure, but it would have been always difficult.

[SFDanny]

On 8/31/2018 at 2:48 PM, Lord Varys said:

We don't know what Ned knew about Rhaegar/Lyanna by the time he heard Robert talk about dragonspawn. He could have learned about Lyanna's pregnancy at the Trident or in KL. In fact, the fact he took it upon himself to look for his sister and eventually approached the tower with only a couple of good friends and trusted retainers might indicate that he already had a pretty good picture of what to expect there (a married and pregnant Lyanna).

That's a leap, LV. How about something a little more modest in our assumptions. It is likely Ned knew Lyanna went willingly with Rhaegar and that she had no interest in marrying Robert. These two assumptions we at least have something in the text to base our conjecture. We have nothing to which points to Ned knowing as early as the Trident where his sister was, or especially that she was married and pregnant with Rhaegar's child. Hell, we don't even know, assuming R+L=J, that Rhaegar knew Lyanna was pregnant. Who do you propose told Ned these secrets, or do you just assume he guessed based on the time Rhaegar and Lyanna spent together?

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

That's a leap, LV. How about something a little more modest in our assumptions. It is likely Ned knew Lyanna went willingly with Rhaegar and that she had no interest in marrying Robert. These two assumptions we at least have something in the text to base our conjecture. We have nothing to which points to Ned knowing as early as the Trident where his sister was, or especially that she was married and pregnant with Rhaegar's child. Hell, we don't even know, assuming R+L=J, that Rhaegar knew Lyanna was pregnant. Who do you propose told Ned these secrets, or do you just assume he guessed based on the time Rhaegar and Lyanna spent together?

Whatever source there was who pointed him towards the tower. Ser Richard Lonmouth, perhaps, some other person who had either be at the tower or had heard from Rhaegar where Rhaegar had been or where Lyanna was kept.

And if Lya was pregnant, Prince Rhaegar may have shared that happy news with the entire court and his army. I certainly would have done that. There is no reason to keep your marriage or the pregnancy of your wife a secret if you are a royal prince and the future king.

The main reason why I think Jon had to be hidden is that Robert and the world actually knew that Lyanna was pregnant with Rhaegar's legitimate child.

Robert himself seems to admitting as much when he admits that Rhaegar has Lyanna now - if there hadn't been a marriage one assumes Robert could claim his beloved when he joined her in death, but he doesn't have any such delusions.

[Ygrain]

On 8/31/2018 at 11:45 PM, SFDanny said:

I think it unlikely she spends much of her last moments telling her brother of her marriage to Rhaegar, but that is indeed an assumption I'm making.

The scene from Ned's memory doesn't include her wish to be buried at Winterfell, either, yet she must have voiced it at some point. It is quite possible that her reunion with Ned started much earlier, when she was stronger and lucid, and her insistence on the promise was actually a feverish raving, begging for a promise that had already been given, and Ned's final "I promise" was merely to comfort his dying sister.

- Too little information to go by here, anyway.

On 8/31/2018 at 11:45 PM, SFDanny said:

I'm not exactly sure which instance you are referencing here, but I'm guessing this is a reference to the discussion amongst the Barrows of the First Men. Correct me if I'm wrong. Could you say how this would bolster the case Ned knows of a marriage?

The first time we hear about the promise to Lyanna, the scene goes:

“Ah, damn it, Ned, did you have to bury her in a place like this?” His voice was hoarse with remembered grief. “She deserved more than darkness …”
“She was a Stark of Winterfell,” Ned said quietly. “This is her place.”
“She should be on a hill somewhere, under a fruit tree, with the sun and clouds above her and the rain to wash her clean.”
“I was with her when she died,” Ned reminded the king. “She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father.” He could hear her still at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned.

Here, Ned's train of thoughts is pretty clear: they speak about her last moments. But what was it that prompted the memory at the Barrows? There we have:

“Treachery was a coin the Targaryens knew well,” Robert said. The anger was building in him again. “Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it.”
“You were not there,” Ned said, bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. “There was no honor in that conquest.”
“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”
“You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

The whole context is about the Sack, which involves the murder of Elia and her children, so it could be merely Jon's safety and Robert as a threat to him. Or the prompt could be more specific - the talk about Rhaegar's honor, because if he married Lyanna, then he did not dishonor her. Which ties in to Rhaegar being supposedly honorable, to the "marry the woman you want to bed" speech by Craster, Robb and Jeyne, Ashara's dishonor...

On 8/31/2018 at 11:45 PM, SFDanny said:

Let's just agree that it is entirely possible a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna factors into the actions of Hightower, Dayne, and Whent. If so then it is possible either Ned finds that out afterwards either from Lyanna or whoever else was there.

Agreed gladly.

On 8/31/2018 at 11:45 PM, SFDanny said:

First, we have all argued Ned's thoughts as he is riding away from seeing little Barra. Mostly, in earlier discussions this was around whether or not this proved Ned was thinking of HIS bastard son when he thinks of Jon. I think that is a huge mistake to make. Said so many years ago, like many posters, and still believe that. But it doesn't mean he doesn't think of Jon as someone else's bastard. Not that he would use that word directed towards Jon. His view on this is clear before we even read a Eddard chapter.

That passage is even more complicated. I have already pointed out one possible interpretation above - Jon lives the life of a bastard, whether he is on or not. Plus, there's another possibility: in the climax of the scene, Ned compares and contrasts Robert with Rhaegar, in favour of Rhaegar. Robert frequented brothels, Rhaegar did not. Does it follow that while Robert fathered bastards, Rhaegar did not? And was the comparison prompted by relationship to Lyanna in general, or by comparing them as husbands, in the respect that Lyanna considered important?

On 8/31/2018 at 11:45 PM, SFDanny said:

Ned's decision to send Jon to the Night's Watch. Jon asks for this, and the Starks firmly believe this is an honorable life for anyone - trueborn or bastard. I just can't get passed the fact that Ned would allow Jon to take the vows of the Night's Watch without telling him who he is. He is allowing Jon to give up any claim to any type of noble life, not just a claim to the throne, but also a life of a trueborn son of Lyanna Stark, without telling him what he is giving up. This seems extremely against the Ned we know.

I know, I have argued that his priority is to keep Jon alive, and I think that is absolutely right. However, Jon must know the truth if he is to make a real choice. I think if Ned knows of a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna he would tell Jon before he takes his vows.

If the priority is to keep Jon alive, then I don't see such a decision as against Ned's character. Also, if the promise to Lyanna involved keeping Jon's parentage secret, then Ned would have no choice. And finally, revealing the secret puts everyone at risk, not just Jon himself. What if Jon decided to reclaim his birthright? The Starks would be revealed as traitors, and Ned would be put in the position where the safety of his family would require a war against his friend. It would also be a huge blow to his credibility among his vassals - he betrayed the North's best interests in order to cover up for his sister's folly, and now throws the North into a war again for the sake of a Targaryen.

On 8/31/2018 at 11:45 PM, SFDanny said:

Now, as usual, there is a caveat. We don't really know if the plan was to allow Jon to take his vows when he did. When Jon goes to the Night's Watch he is accompanied by his Uncle Benjen and it is possible that the plan is to tell Jon but Benjen is lost before that could happen. 

Quite possible that Benjen was supposed to tell. One has to wonder if his disappearance was mere coincidence.

[Firefae]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whatever source there was who pointed him towards the tower. Ser Richard Lonmouth, perhaps, some other person who had either be at the tower or had heard from Rhaegar where Rhaegar had been or where Lyanna was kept.

And if Lya was pregnant, Prince Rhaegar may have shared that happy news with the entire court and his army. I certainly would have done that. There is no reason to keep your marriage or the pregnancy of your wife a secret if you are a royal prince and the future king.

The main reason why I think Jon had to be hidden is that Robert and the world actually knew that Lyanna was pregnant with Rhaegar's legitimate child.

Robert himself seems to admitting as much when he admits that Rhaegar has Lyanna now - if there hadn't been a marriage one assumes Robert could claim his beloved when he joined her in death, but he doesn't have any such delusions.

Is there any indication that the people in Westeros knew that Lyanna was pregnant? The story Ned tells to everyone is that she died in a fever. There has been no rumours reported by anyone in Westeros about her pregnancy anywhere.

[SFDanny]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whatever source there was who pointed him towards the tower. Ser Richard Lonmouth, perhaps, some other person who had either be at the tower or had heard from Rhaegar where Rhaegar had been or where Lyanna was kept.

I think Lonmouth is indeed one of the candidates, along with Ashara and many others, to have pointed Ned to the Tower of Joy, but we have no evidence he did so. Much less that he knew of a marriage and a pregnancy that he told the rest of the Westeros about.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if Lya was pregnant, Prince Rhaegar may have shared that happy news with the entire court and his army. I certainly would have done that. There is no reason to keep your marriage or the pregnancy of your wife a secret if you are a royal prince and the future king.

The main reason why I think Jon had to be hidden is that Robert and the world actually knew that Lyanna was pregnant with Rhaegar's legitimate child.

Robert himself seems to admitting as much when he admits that Rhaegar has Lyanna now - if there hadn't been a marriage one assumes Robert could claim his beloved when he joined her in death, but he doesn't have any such delusions.

LV, you are one of the most intelligent posters on this site, but, pardon me, this doesn't pass the laugh test. Please explain how, if "the world actually knew that Lyanna was pregnant with Rhaegar's legitimate child," Ned is able to pass off Jon as his own bastard son?

Ned is one of at least three, but few others, who actually were present when Lyanna died. Yet no one asks what happened to Rhaegar's and her child? At the same time Ned arrives with a new baby of just the age to have been born before Lyanna's death. Yet no one says, this is Lyanna's child? Not even the Lannisters suspect the obvious substitution? Your own namesake never whispers "bullshit, this is a lie"?

LV, one of the critical elements of the story is that Ned has built a plausible story for Jon's origins. That falls apart if the world knows Lyanna was pregnant. On top of which there is absolutely no evidence this is the case. In fact, we have tons of evidence that Robert, Stannis, Catelyn, Jaime, Cersei, and everyone else who deals with Jon thinks of him as Ned's bastard.

That Ned's story holds up depends on a number of things. It depends on Wylla's continued testimony that she is Jon's mother. It depends on Ned's trip to Starfall in which he returns Dawn to the Daynes. It depends on the existence of a mystery around Ashara's "suicide." It depends on the legend of Ned's crush on Ashara. It depends on people accepting Ned's inability to lie and act in a dishonorable way, in the face of a story that depends on him lying and being dishonorable. What Ned's cover story could never withstand is the known existence of Lyanna's pregnancy with Rhaegar's child, trueborn or bastard. Pardon me, my friend, but this makes no sense to me.

As to Robert's thoughts about Rhaegar, this is more about who has possession of Lyanna. Rhaegar has Lyanna in death, while Robert suffers through life with Cersei as his wife. It is a huge stretch to imagine this is an indication Robert knew of a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna, much less that he knew they had a child.

[The Twinslayer]

On 8/31/2018 at 3:36 PM, Widow's Watch said:

How is it that by my logic Jaime is not the father of Cersei's children? I don't even get how you arrived to this conclusion.  

There are pages on Ned's thoughts after he leaves the brothel. Can't pick and choose what you want when there's so much more going on. Ned is making a distinction between Robert and Rhaegar. One acts on his lusts, the other one, he doesn't believe he did. There's nothing in his thoughts that says Rhaegar prefers sleeping with highborn ladies. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but I understood you to be saying that Ned believes Jon is not a bastard because he thinks (1) Jon is Rhaegar's son, and (2) Rhaegar does not go to brothels.  

My point is that we have one other example where it is made clear that a particular man does not go to brothels.  That is Jaime Lannister, who has three bastard children with a highborn woman.  

If GRRM intended us to believe that Rhaegar's (maybe) not going to brothels was a hint that Jon is legitimate, he would not have Jaime telling us that he never goes to brothels.  

[SFDanny]

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

The scene from Ned's memory doesn't include her wish to be buried at Winterfell, either, yet she must have voiced it at some point. It is quite possible that her reunion with Ned started much earlier, when she was stronger and lucid, and her insistence on the promise was actually a feverish raving, begging for a promise that had already been given, and Ned's final "I promise" was merely to comfort his dying sister.

- Too little information to go by here, anyway.

Thanks for the excellent post!

I agree your read here is possible. I also agree there is too little information. In the face of that problem, I prefer to assume what we know. In this case, for instance, we know Ned promises Lyanna some things, and the fear goes out of her eyes. I take this to mean it is in this moment that Ned agrees to do what Lyanna wants. That, of course, doesn't rule out a longer period of discussion between the two before this scene. It doesn't rule out the possibility that Lyanna's fever makes her forget those earlier discussions. The too little information makes me want to stick to simpler explanations, but that is my preference, not something I see as a certainty. 

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

The first time we hear about the promise to Lyanna, the scene goes:

“Ah, damn it, Ned, did you have to bury her in a place like this?” His voice was hoarse with remembered grief. “She deserved more than darkness …”
“She was a Stark of Winterfell,” Ned said quietly. “This is her place.”
“She should be on a hill somewhere, under a fruit tree, with the sun and clouds above her and the rain to wash her clean.”
“I was with her when she died,” Ned reminded the king. “She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father.” He could hear her still at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned.

Here, Ned's train of thoughts is pretty clear: they speak about her last moments. But what was it that prompted the memory at the Barrows? There we have:

“Treachery was a coin the Targaryens knew well,” Robert said. The anger was building in him again. “Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it.”
“You were not there,” Ned said, bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. “There was no honor in that conquest.”
“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”
“You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

The whole context is about the Sack, which involves the murder of Elia and her children, so it could be merely Jon's safety and Robert as a threat to him. Or the prompt could be more specific - the talk about Rhaegar's honor, because if he married Lyanna, then he did not dishonor her. Which ties in to Rhaegar being supposedly honorable, to the "marry the woman you want to bed" speech by Craster, Robb and Jeyne, Ashara's dishonor...

I have to say I think the context is about less Ned's thinking aboutTargaryen "honor" in general, and Rhaegar's specifically. Targaryen lack of honor is brought up is by Robert, and in reaction to Ned's own statement of the Lannister's lack of honor as showed in the sack of King's Landing. I'm not sure we can get to this being an example of Ned thinking Rhaegar had honor, and therefore would have married Lyanna.

I think the first we see such thoughts from Ned is in the ride from Chataya's and his thinking that Rhaegar was not a man, unlike Robert, to frequent brothels. Not that I see anything in the above quotes that indicate Ned thinking Rhaegar was dishonorable and therefore would rule out a marriage. My reaction anyways.

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Agreed gladly.

Me too.

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That passage is even more complicated. I have already pointed out one possible interpretation above - Jon lives the life of a bastard, whether he is on or not. Plus, there's another possibility: in the climax of the scene, Ned compares and contrasts Robert with Rhaegar, in favour of Rhaegar. Robert frequented brothels, Rhaegar did not. Does it follow that while Robert fathered bastards, Rhaegar did not? And was the comparison prompted by relationship to Lyanna in general, or by comparing them as husbands, in the respect that Lyanna considered important?

This I like very much. All good questions, and ones I can't answer. Again, my preference is to stay with a more simple and straightforward answer. Which pushes me toward accepting that Ned thinks Jon is someone's bastard child, but I like your possibilities.

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

If the priority is to keep Jon alive, then I don't see such a decision as against Ned's character. Also, if the promise to Lyanna involved keeping Jon's parentage secret, then Ned would have no choice. And finally, revealing the secret puts everyone at risk, not just Jon himself. What if Jon decided to reclaim his birthright? The Starks would be revealed as traitors, and Ned would be put in the position where the safety of his family would require a war against his friend. It would also be a huge blow to his credibility among his vassals - he betrayed the North's best interests in order to cover up for his sister's folly, and now throws the North into a war again for the sake of a Targaryen.

My guess is that Ned's promises to Lyanna include his keeping Jon safe, and hiding his identity from the rest of the world by raising him as his own. I'm not sure that means never letting Jon know the truth. I go back and forth on this, to be honest. Certainly, I think Ned's regrets in the black cells and his wanting to write a letter have everything to do with not telling Jon the truth, even if that turns out in the unlikely event to be Wylla is his mom.

I'm certain that concern for Jon's safety, and refusal to say anything to Jon about who his mother was, is first and foremost in Ned's thinking. Which means you don't tell a child such things. As Jon grows older and understands the dangers you write about, not just for him but for his "brothers and sisters" as well, then it maybe Ned plans on telling him the truth. Of course, if Ned believes there is no claim to be made because of his belief Jon is Rhaegar's bastard son, the danger of him announcing to the world who his mother and father really was is lessened. I'm don't believe it eliminates the danger if he is a bastard, but it stops the idea of Jon adopting the last name Targaryen and planting the dragon banners at Moat Cailin.

But again, my concern here is if Ned knows Jon is Rhaegar's trueborn son, why would he let him go join the Night's Watch without telling him the truth. I understand sending him to the Wall to keep him safe, but it seems unlike Ned to let Jon take the oath without knowledge of his identity. That seems especially true if Ned knows of his claim.

Which is why I raise the possibility that Jon was never meant to take the oath, but Benjen was lost and unable to stop him. We know Yoren comes to King's Landing and tells Ned of Benjen being overdue and perhaps lost beyond the Wall. Does Ned send a message back with Yoren when he leaves? I doubt he would trust Pycelle's ravens with even a hint of concern about Jon taking the oath.

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Quite possible that Benjen was supposed to tell. One has to wonder if his disappearance was mere coincidence.

It makes me wonder. Of course, I hold out hope Benjen will turn up and we will find out. I'm betting non-existent gold dragons he is at Hardhome, and will arrive with a band of survivors back into our tale.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I think Lonmouth is indeed one of the candidates, along with Ashara and many others, to have pointed Ned to the Tower of Joy, but we have no evidence he did so. Much less that he knew of a marriage and a pregnancy that he told the rest of the Westeros about.

Sure, it is all a theory at this point. Lonmouth is much more likely to have location information, though, considering he may have been one of Rhaegar's original companion and may perhaps have also only returned with Rhaegar to court. If so, he may have been there when Rhaegar took his leave from Lyanna and the knights.

But then - most location speculation is based on the presupposition that Lyanna spend a considerable amount of time at the tower. We don't know that the tower was the place Gerold found Rhaegar, nor that it was the place where Rhaegar and Lyanna parted ways.

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

LV, you are one of the most intelligent posters on this site, but, pardon me, this doesn't pass the laugh test. Please explain how, if "the world actually knew that Lyanna was pregnant with Rhaegar's legitimate child," Ned is able to pass off Jon as his own bastard son?

By telling a credible story that Lyanna's child actually died - perhaps by passing somebody else's dead child as Lyanna's - and by having 'Jon Snow' only enter the scene months after Lyanna and her child (allegedly) died.

What makes no sense is the idea that nobody assumed/suspected/knew Lyanna was pregnant, and that nobody connected the dots there. There is also zero internal motivation for Rhaegar or anybody close to him and/or Lyanna to keep the marriage and the pregnancy a secret. Unless one creates blown-up and scarcely believable scenarios that are build on sand.

It makes only sense, in my opinion, if Ned could keep his bastard and Lyanna and any child she may have had separate from each other.

And I think he accomplished that by moving Jon's birth farther into the future, just as AGoT indicates.

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Ned is one of at least three, but few others, who actually were present when Lyanna died. Yet no one asks what happened to Rhaegar's and her child? At the same time Ned arrives with a new baby of just the age to have been born before Lyanna's death. Yet no one says, this is Lyanna's child? Not even the Lannisters suspect the obvious substitution? Your own namesake never whispers "bullshit, this is a lie"?

People likely did ask. And Ned told them beautiful lies and half-truths. Just as he must have told stories about the Kingsguard, how Lyanna died, where he went, etc. Robert would have wanted to know everything about all that, and the kin of his own men and the Kingsguard, too.

And it is not exactly necessary for us to believe that nobody sees through this charade. The important part in making Lyanna's son Ned Stark's bastard is that his identity and claim are taken from the child. He is no longer a threat to anyone. I don't think Robert suspected anything but he could very have suspected something - being content that this child is neutralized as a danger by his faithful servant and friend, Eddard Stark.

Whatever you might believe about Robert - it is crystal clear the man is not somebody who wants to kill children or command the murder of children. And we do know he is very good at looking the other way. So who knows? Perhaps he didn't want to see that Ned's son was actually Lyanna's, just as he didn't want to see that Cersei's children were not his or that Jaime was clearly fucking Cersei whenever they had time and opportunity?

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

LV, one of the critical elements of the story is that Ned has built a plausible story for Jon's origins. That falls apart if the world knows Lyanna was pregnant. On top of which there is absolutely no evidence this is the case. In fact, we have tons of evidence that Robert, Stannis, Catelyn, Jaime, Cersei, and everyone else who deals with Jon thinks of him as Ned's bastard.

Sure, many people believe the story. But aside from Robert nobody in this illustrious circle was very interested in Lyanna Stark's children. Or in Lyanna herself. But also note that no POV but Ned ever actually did share any memories of Lyanna Stark or her relationship with Prince Rhaegar. They mention them and Ned's bastard occasionally, but they never dwell on any of those topics.

If we talk about JFK we don't have to mention or think about his assassination. That is just present background information - just as the information about Lyanna's marriage and pregnancy might be there in Westeros but no (POV) character has yet shared that with us because they all assume we know it anyway - or rather, because the author doesn't want us to know yet.

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

That Ned's story holds up depends on a number of things. It depends on Wylla's continued testimony that she is Jon's mother. It depends on Ned's trip to Starfall in which he returns Dawn to the Daynes. It depends on the existence of a mystery around Ashara's "suicide." It depends on the legend of Ned's crush on Ashara. It depends on people accepting Ned's inability to lie and act in a dishonorable way, in the face of a story that depends on him lying and being dishonorable. What Ned's cover story could never withstand is the known existence of Lyanna's pregnancy with Rhaegar's child, trueborn or bastard. Pardon me, my friend, but this makes no sense to me.

The 'Jon Snow story' would only have to survive a lot of scrutiny if it was ever connected to the Lyanna story. If Ned answered any question about Lyanna and the Kingsguard to everybody's satisfaction nobody would have taken a second twice at the bastard that eventually surfaced.

The important thing was to keep those things separate and to have indeed a cover story in place should anyone ever get suspicious - most especially there must be some mother playing the role of Jon Snow's mother. But for that Ned actually needs more than just a name, but actually a pretty good story about the circumstances he met the mother of his bastard, etc. 

I think such a story does exist.

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

As to Robert's thoughts about Rhaegar, this is more about who has possession of Lyanna. Rhaegar has Lyanna in death, while Robert suffers through life with Cersei as his wife. It is a huge stretch to imagine this is an indication Robert knew of a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna, much less that he knew they had a child.

The idea that some rapist has your beloved woman just because said woman and the rapist predeceased you is somewhat odd. The implication in that statement is that Robert did know that Rhaegar had (deep) feelings for Lyanna and that they were *together* like they might be now in death. This is not irrelevant.

Overall, we have to say that there is no reason to believe that the Jon Snow thing is as important a secret or as unknown in Westeros as one might think when one views it only from the perspective of its (possible) importance for the plot of the story.

The boy was certainly in danger, but that danger must have lessened quickly after he had been successfully branded as a bastard. Once a bastard, always a bastard. Even if two or twenty years after the war some guy uncovered what he believed was 'the truth' this would have hardly mattered because unless Eddard Stark confirmed the child was, in truth, Rhaegar Targaryen's son the stain of bastardy would have never left him.

The best way for Robert to deal with this truth would have been to ignore it. Insisting to kill this child which may be Rhaegar's son or Ned's son would just lend credibility to the story.

Jon Snow looks nothing like his true father, and Eddard Stark is known for his honor and honesty.

You see this phenomenon with Cersei's children - they have been born to the purple, so to speak, no matter what Stannis says (vice versa, nobody demands that Shireen be declared a bastard just because people believe she is Patchface's daughter). Stories about 'the hidden prince' and the like would just that be - stories and rumors and gossip.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Firefae said:

Is there any indication that the people in Westeros knew that Lyanna was pregnant? The story Ned tells to everyone is that she died in a fever. There has been no rumours reported by anyone in Westeros about her pregnancy anywhere.

See above.

It is more or less a theory, but the easy explanation is that I try to put the horse before the cart and imagine the story the way the people involved in it would have treated it - and not knowing what would happen there is simply no good reason that Rhaegar and Lyanna would keep their marriage a secret or later Lyanna's pregnancy.

Not when they originally married, and Rhaegar most definitely not later after he had taken command of the Targaryen army.

All scenarios imagining that they had reason to keep things secret are, in my opinion, pretty far out there because you have to make many additional assumptions and speculations.

And it is very easy to explain why we don't know anything about that - because the author doesn't want us to. Because of the Jon Snow thing which is supposed to be a mystery (not to mention that he already revealed he also wants the Lyanna-Rhaegar thing to be unclear). But this doesn't mean (m)any (POV) characters can't know much more about those things than we do. All it means is that nobody has told us about at this point.

People's imagination runs rampant when they imagine that the limits of our knowledge is also the limits of the knowledge of the characters.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

JUST WHEN I THOUGHT I WAS OUT , THEY PULL ME BACK IN .

R +L=J  . We no nothing . GRRM has given us a conglomerations of  contradictions .

 

[Geddus]

16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But again, my concern here is if Ned knows Jon is Rhaegar's trueborn son, why would he let him go join the Night's Watch without telling him the truth.

Maybe Ned didn't tell him because Jon was 14, too young to be entrusted with a secret so big and so dangerous.

[Ygrain]

17 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I have to say I think the context is about less Ned's thinking aboutTargaryen "honor" in general, and Rhaegar's specifically. Targaryen lack of honor is brought up is by Robert, and in reaction to Ned's own statement of the Lannister's lack of honor as showed in the sack of King's Landing. I'm not sure we can get to this being an example of Ned thinking Rhaegar had honor, and therefore would have married Lyanna.

The part preceding the memory of the promise is directed at Rhaegar, though:

"Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”
“You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

I might only add, such an inner monologue comment following direct speech often contains complementary, or even contradictory, information about the last part uttered. If my reading is correct, then Ned basically says, "You avenged Lyanna at the Trident", though there was nothing to avenge because Rhaegar did right by her, but I cannot possibly tell you that.

 

17 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Certainly, I think Ned's regrets in the black cells and his wanting to write a letter have everything to do with not telling Jon the truth, even if that turns out in the unlikely event to be Wylla is his mom.

And even more so in that dream when his spirit visits Bran and Rickon and tells Bran something urgent about Jon, which Bran doesn't remember (one has to wonder why - because he is untrained in these matters, or might someone be interfering? Because if you can use glass candles or whatever to induce dreams, then you can also be able to interfer with dreams)

17 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I'm certain that concern for Jon's safety, and refusal to say anything to Jon about who his mother was, is first and foremost in Ned's thinking. Which means you don't tell a child such things. As Jon grows older and understands the dangers you write about, not just for him but for his "brothers and sisters" as well, then it maybe Ned plans on telling him the truth. Of course, if Ned believes there is no claim to be made because of his belief Jon is Rhaegar's bastard son, the danger of him announcing to the world who his mother and father really was is lessened. I'm don't believe it eliminates the danger if he is a bastard, but it stops the idea of Jon adopting the last name Targaryen and planting the dragon banners at Moat Cailin.

There is also the possibility that Ned knew about the marriage but doubted its validity due to its polygamous nature. 

17 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But again, my concern here is if Ned knows Jon is Rhaegar's trueborn son, why would he let him go join the Night's Watch without telling him the truth. I understand sending him to the Wall to keep him safe, but it seems unlike Ned to let Jon take the oath without knowledge of his identity. That seems especially true if Ned knows of his claim.

Here we have to agree to disagree, I can perfectly see Ned placing the good of the realm as well as Jon's safety about his right to know his parents. - Not ruling out the below, though, either.

17 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Which is why I raise the possibility that Jon was never meant to take the oath, but Benjen was lost and unable to stop him. We know Yoren comes to King's Landing and tells Ned of Benjen being overdue and perhaps lost beyond the Wall. Does Ned send a message back with Yoren when he leaves? I doubt he would trust Pycelle's ravens with even a hint of concern about Jon taking the oath.

It makes me wonder. Of course, I hold out hope Benjen will turn up and we will find out. I'm betting non-existent gold dragons he is at Hardhome, and will arrive with a band of survivors back into our tale.

Even before the abomination, I had a bad feeling about Benjen... - Lol, that would be a cross-fandom meme: Bran. I am your uncle.

[Lord Varys]

On 9/2/2018 at 9:18 PM, SFDanny said:

I agree your read here is possible. I also agree there is too little information. In the face of that problem, I prefer to assume what we know. In this case, for instance, we know Ned promises Lyanna some things, and the fear goes out of her eyes. I take this to mean it is in this moment that Ned agrees to do what Lyanna wants. That, of course, doesn't rule out a longer period of discussion between the two before this scene. It doesn't rule out the possibility that Lyanna's fever makes her forget those earlier discussions. The too little information makes me want to stick to simpler explanations, but that is my preference, not something I see as a certainty. 

It is very difficult at this point to guess what she may have been afraid of. I very much doubt there was ever a question that Ned would do anything against Lyanna's child. Eddard Stark is a Stark. And the Starks protect their own, no matter what. If Lyanna didn't know as much she knew nothing, like her son. But Lyanna did know her family.

We also don't know what Ned already knew by the time he talked to Lyanna. There is no reason to believe she was Ned's only source on what had transpired in the last year or so.

We should know fill the empty spots in this story with our own detailed speculation until such time we have the full scene there.

On 9/2/2018 at 9:18 PM, SFDanny said:

My guess is that Ned's promises to Lyanna include his keeping Jon safe, and hiding his identity from the rest of the world by raising him as his own. I'm not sure that means never letting Jon know the truth. I go back and forth on this, to be honest. Certainly, I think Ned's regrets in the black cells and his wanting to write a letter have everything to do with not telling Jon the truth, even if that turns out in the unlikely event to be Wylla is his mom.

I'm certain that concern for Jon's safety, and refusal to say anything to Jon about who his mother was, is first and foremost in Ned's thinking. Which means you don't tell a child such things. As Jon grows older and understands the dangers you write about, not just for him but for his "brothers and sisters" as well, then it maybe Ned plans on telling him the truth. Of course, if Ned believes there is no claim to be made because of his belief Jon is Rhaegar's bastard son, the danger of him announcing to the world who his mother and father really was is lessened. I'm don't believe it eliminates the danger if he is a bastard, but it stops the idea of Jon adopting the last name Targaryen and planting the dragon banners at Moat Cailin.

But again, my concern here is if Ned knows Jon is Rhaegar's trueborn son, why would he let him go join the Night's Watch without telling him the truth. I understand sending him to the Wall to keep him safe, but it seems unlike Ned to let Jon take the oath without knowledge of his identity. That seems especially true if Ned knows of his claim.

Oh, there doesn't have to be all that much conflict over that. Ned just made a decision back then, perhaps/likely at the urging of Lyanna. Her child by Rhaegar is simply not Rhaegar's child, nor Lyanna's. It is Eddard Stark's bastard. Period. And that's all it ever will be.

A lie that is not just some disguise, not some prince dying his hair blue to wash it out before he lays claim to his grandfather's throne. This is different.

'Jon Snow' was never supposed to know who he was and Eddard Stark had no interest to revisit this thing after he had made a decision. The truth was supposed to be buried in the ground, never to be brought to light again.

One could even entertain the notion that Ned would have told Jon a beautiful lie about his mother, painting the picture of a woman he, Ned, fell in love with, say, some hybrid of Lyanna and Ashara, just to shut him up and give him some peace. The truth may have been too painful. Just as the idea to push Jon away or confuse him by telling him he was not, in fact, his father.

This doesn't necessarily have anything to do with claims or dangers but rather family dynamics. If you are accustomed to a situation you simply have no reason to change it.

If it were different, Ned should have indeed told Jon who and what he was. At least when he was leaving for the Wall, but also before. And he should also have told his wife once it became clear that she could not suffer 'the bastard' in her household. But he did none of that, and as far as we can judge from his POV thoughts like that didn't even cross his mind until he was facing (pretty certain) death.

That puts things into perspective. 

On 9/2/2018 at 9:18 PM, SFDanny said:

Which is why I raise the possibility that Jon was never meant to take the oath, but Benjen was lost and unable to stop him. We know Yoren comes to King's Landing and tells Ned of Benjen being overdue and perhaps lost beyond the Wall. Does Ned send a message back with Yoren when he leaves? I doubt he would trust Pycelle's ravens with even a hint of concern about Jon taking the oath.

It makes me wonder. Of course, I hold out hope Benjen will turn up and we will find out. I'm betting non-existent gold dragons he is at Hardhome, and will arrive with a band of survivors back into our tale.

Benjen might come back, but chances are very bad that Benjen cared about Jon not taking the vow. What was the point of taking him to the Wall in the first place, then? Benjen was the one talking to Luwin about Jon wanting to take the black in the first place. He either wanted Jon to take the black, or he had a very weird way of preventing that.

Assuming Benjen does know stuff. If Ned never talked to him about what transpired down in the south Benjen might suspect something, but he would not know for sure.

[The Twinslayer]

On 9/2/2018 at 3:18 PM, SFDanny said:

<snip>

I am with you on a lot of this stuff.  In particular, it seems clear that Ned believes that Jon is a bastard (his own, or Rhaegar's).

I don't agree that it is possible that Ned is mistaken about this, however.  Assuming we are right and Ned believes that Jon is a bastard, there are only two ways that Ned could be mistaken.  Both assume that Rhaegar and Lyanna are Jon's parents.

The first is that no-one ever told Ned that Lyanna and Rhaegar were married.  That is hard to believe.  If Lyanna had any time at all with Ned (which she probably did, because she had time to tell Ned that she wanted to be buried at Winterfell and that Rhaegar had named the place the "tower of joy"), she would have said something about being married.  Also, there is the "they" that found him clutching Lyanna's hand after she died.  That passage is written to imply that the rest of Ned's forces rode up after he fought the kings guards.  But let's take the common assumption that it was just Howland and Wylla (or some random maester who was supposed to be looking after Lyanna).  Lyanna has been in the tower for weeks, if not months, with Wylla (or whomever) and the kings guards.  If the kings guards think Lyanna is a princess, surely they called her by that title at least once in Wylla's (or the master's) presence.  And surely if that was the case, Wylla (or the maester) would have mentioned that to Ned at some point along the way to Starfall.

The second is that someone told Ned that Lyanna and Rhaegar underwent some kind of wedding ritual and that Ned immediately dismissed that as a BS ceremony that could not produce a legitimate heir to the throne.

Bottom line:  Ned believes that Jon is a bastard because Jon is a bastard.   

 

On 9/2/2018 at 5:50 PM, Lord Varys said:

<snip>

There are a lot of reasons to think that there was no (real) public Rhaegar-Lyanna marriage.  One is that, if there was, Ned would not think that Jon was a bastard.  Another is that Connington would not remember Rhaegar's marriage (singular) to Elia with such bitterness.

But I do agree with you that it would be a common assumption that Lyanna was impregnated by Rhaegar.  Ned tells us Rhaegar was interested in Lyanna (named her queen of love & beauty); Robert says Rhaegar "raped" her thousands of times; Cersei frets that she will be "put aside for a new Lyanna"; and Barristan says that Rhaegar loved his "Lady Lyanna" (note, not "Princess Lyanna").  And we know Rhaegar had two children by a woman who was known to be frail, meaning that he was fertile.  And we know Rhaegar and Lyanna were off somewhere unknown, where they "could not be found," for several months.  Anyone in-universe who knew that would have assumed that Lyanna was either barren or became pregnant.  Anyone who has read a few fantasy novels reads Robert's statement that Rhaegar raped Lyanna and immediately knows to expect that there is a child running around somewhere.

That means that Ned's story about Jon being his (Ned's) bastard has to be very believable.  My own theory is that one of two things happened there.  The first possibility is that Ned stayed in Dorne long enough after the Rebellion to impregnate Wylla or Ashara after Lyanna was dead and to bring the child (Jon) home to Winterfell.  Meaning that Jon was born about 10 months after the Sack.

The second is that R+L=J and that no-one had the gumption to call Ned a liar when Ned called Jon "son" for "all the North to see."  Reading the Ned/Robert conversations about all of this, you could draw the conclusion that Robert knew or suspected that Jon was Rhaegar's son but was prepared to look the other way because as long as Ned tucked him away in the North as a bastard with no chance of inheriting anything, Robert had nothing to worry about.  Add that to sending Jon to join the Watch, thereby forsaking any claim to the throne, and why would Robert have any interest in provoking a fight with his staunchest ally?  

But Robert hates Targaryens, you might say.  He has shown no interest in killing Maester Aemon (who, as a Maester, can't take the throne, just as Jon cannot).  He showed relatively little concern about Viserys -- he claims he could have killed Viserys any time before Illyrio took him in.  What Robert cares about is a threat to his throne -- it is only when Dany marries a Dothraki who has an army that Robert gets serious about killing her.  

I think Robert suspects that Jon is R+L but does not care so long as Ned has taken him off the board by claiming that Jon is Ned's bastard son.  And that Robert has a further reason for not acting against Jon -- that Jon may in fact be Ned's bastard son.      

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

There are a lot of reasons to think that there was no (real) public Rhaegar-Lyanna marriage.  One is that, if there was, Ned would not think that Jon was a bastard.  Another is that Connington would not remember Rhaegar's marriage (singular) to Elia with such bitterness.

I'm not sure Ned actually thinks that Jon is a bastard - but even if he did, then this could be due to his view of bigamy not being a thing, etc.

The main reason why I think Lyanna may have been afraid for her son is not so much that Robert would have crushed his little skull, too, but rather that he ends up being a pawn in another silly little game of thrones leading to war. Remember Myrcella - to crown her is to kill her. A similar fate may have awaited Lyanna's son if he had remained in the clutches of the Kingsguard or whoever they might have intended to deliver him to.

Even if Ned had made Lyanna's son his ward without lying about his identity (which I think Ned could have forced Robert to agree to if the alternative would have been that or war against Winterfell) then the boy would still not have been safe from people raising in his name against Robert, etc. just as it didn't help Aegon II that Aegon III was his hostage.

Connington explicitly thinks about Rhaegar's first marriage, the moment his 'silver prince' was technically no longer available for Jon to 'marry' him. He never thinks about Lyanna at all, presumably because that hurts to much - after all, it seems very likely that Rhaegar actually did love Lyanna Stark, not Jon Connington. Elia was just a nuisance, a woman Rhaegar was fond of.

And then there is the odd fact that Connington really specifies who Aegon's mother was in his introduction speech.

7 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

But I do agree with you that it would be a common assumption that Lyanna was impregnated by Rhaegar.  Ned tells us Rhaegar was interested in Lyanna (named her queen of love & beauty); Robert says Rhaegar "raped" her thousands of times; Cersei frets that she will be "put aside for a new Lyanna"; and Barristan says that Rhaegar loved his "Lady Lyanna" (note, not "Princess Lyanna").  And we know Rhaegar had two children by a woman who was known to be frail, meaning that he was fertile.  And we know Rhaegar and Lyanna were off somewhere unknown, where they "could not be found," for several months.  Anyone in-universe who knew that would have assumed that Lyanna was either barren or became pregnant.  Anyone who has read a few fantasy novels reads Robert's statement that Rhaegar raped Lyanna and immediately knows to expect that there is a child running around somewhere.

The idea that Lyanna would be a princess just because she married a prince doesn't seem to hold water if you look at the text. I throw titles like Princess Consort of Dragonstone or Dowager Princess of Dragonstone to stress the fact that a Lyanna married to Rhaegar would have been part of the royal family, too, but it doesn't seem to be the case that spouses take the titles of their husbands or wives. Laenor Velaryon remains a Ser even after he had married Rhaenyra, Laena Velaryon is a mere lady as Daemon's wife. Alyssa Velaryon is no princess as Prince Aenys wife, and neither is Ceryse Hightower as Maegor's. And so on and so forth.

But the idea that nobody would have suspected that Lyanna was carrying Rhaegar's child makes no sense in any scenario. Especially in a scenario in which neither Rhaegar nor Ned later talked about Lyanna much - in that case even a blind guy would have thought the Jon Snow bastard must be Rhaegar's son by Lyanna.

The art of keeping that a (pretty good) secret would be to keep those things separate in the eyes of the public and that only works if there is a cover story in place and everybody and their grandmother believe they know what happened to Lyanna Stark and her child by Prince Rhaegar.

The idea that Rhaegar already helped to create such a cover story by not talking about Lyanna and his relationship to her at all simply makes no sense to me. If anyone of us were Rhaegar he would have talked about his beloved wife and the son she was giving to him, not to mention that the memory of Lyanna (if they parted on good terms) should have filled him with uncharacteristic joy. For anybody knowing Rhaegar it should have been very easy to decipher what was going on even if the man didn't tell anyone anything.

7 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

That means that Ned's story about Jon being his (Ned's) bastard has to be very believable.  My own theory is that one of two things happened there.  The first possibility is that Ned stayed in Dorne long enough after the Rebellion to impregnate Wylla or Ashara after Lyanna was dead and to bring the child (Jon) home to Winterfell.  Meaning that Jon was born about 10 months after the Sack.

I think that possibility is most definitely there in any case. The idea is that Ned met Jon's mother in that time, and Cat believes the boy was conceived after her own marriage. That is the story Ned must have told her, and it is also the reason why Cat feels betrayed because the bastard was fathered after Eddard Stark was married, and not before, when he was under no obligation to stay faithful to his lady wife.

Considering Jon's real age Ned could easily have told Cat or indicated a variation of the fisherman's daughter story - him meeting a woman long before his marriage with Catelyn Tully was even on the table. But this wasn't done. And there is likely a reason for that.

But to make the story of Jon Snow being conceived and born after the Robb Ned must indeed have spent a pretty long time in the south - in fact, one wonders whether Ned would have even acknowledged this Jon fellow if his mother was supposed to be some lowborn wench he had sex with one or two times while he was making camp in this or that place. Would such a woman even have the means to contact the Lord of Winterfell after his return to KL and the North? How could such a woman possibly contact such a man?

Instead, the official story would likely be that Ned spend time with 'the mother' of his bastard and was present when the child was born, acknowledging him as his child immediately thereafter due to his looks and then arranging his journey to Winterfell (not by way of KL, of course, one imagines).

7 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

The second is that R+L=J and that no-one had the gumption to call Ned a liar when Ned called Jon "son" for "all the North to see."  Reading the Ned/Robert conversations about all of this, you could draw the conclusion that Robert knew or suspected that Jon was Rhaegar's son but was prepared to look the other way because as long as Ned tucked him away in the North as a bastard with no chance of inheriting anything, Robert had nothing to worry about.  Add that to sending Jon to join the Watch, thereby forsaking any claim to the throne, and why would Robert have any interest in provoking a fight with his staunchest ally?  

Exactly. The whole talk about Rhaegar/Targaryen stuff and Ned's bastard between Robert and Ned certainly makes this a possibility. I think I've once laid out a pretty convincing case that it might indeed be that Robert knows exactly who 'Jon Snow' actually is, but is willing to look the other way. He is very accustomed doing that - after all, he doesn't see himself, Stannis, Renly, Shireen, or his own children as 'dragonspawn', never mind that they all are.

I think a very interesting question there can be the reason why Robert continuously draws Eddard Stark into this whole Targaryen business. He is the king. He can just command Varys to murder the Targaryens. He doesn't have to talk to his Hand or any of his other advisers about that. But he wants Ned's opinion on the marriage plans of Daenerys just as he wants his opinion - again - on how to deal with the pregnant Daenerys. Part of it might be to force others to share the blame for this vile thing, but it might also be some - consciously or unconsciously - a test whether Ned is as firmly in his camp as he thinks he is or whether he would side with the family of his 'bastard' if Viserys or Dany would ever show up.

Robert's hatred of Rhaegar is personal, but the real hatred is only for Rhaegar. The other descendants of Aerys II (whom Robert also did not hate all that much, it seems) are all obstacles to his claim to the throne, but they are not people he hates with the same passion. He likes playing the 'I hate Rhaegar/them all' when he talks about killing Daenerys and Viserys for political reasons, but if Robert had truly been obsessed with this Targaryen hate then Viserys and Dany would have been long killed, and he would have probably also started to target all the other legitimate or illegitimate cadet branches of the house that weren't Baratheons - meaning Tarths, Penroses, Plumms, Martells, etc. Not to mention starting a thorough search for Targaryen bastards - especially such of Aerys II. That is what a man truly obsessed with hate of this family would have done.

[Bael's Bastard]

I was just listening to the audiobook for ADWD, and came across this portion. Of particularly interest to me was the underlined statement by Barristan in response to Dany's refusal to send the Brazen Beasts into the pyramids to seize "Sons and brothers, wives and daughters, mothers and fathers" to be used as hostages.

I thought this might be pertinent to Rhaegar's alleged abduction of Lyanna, and the idea that Aerys wouldn't have been interested in obtaining Lyanna from Rhaegar because he would have already viewed her as being his hostage by being in Rhaegar's possession.

Is Barristan just making an empty comparison to Rhaegar because he thinks Daenerys would like to hear it, or might this indicate what Barristan knows, or thinks he knows, about Rhaegar, including his alleged abduction of Lyanna?
 

Quote

ADWD: Daenerys V

"Every man on that list has kin within the city. Sons and brothers, wives and daughters, mothers and fathers. Let my Brazen Beasts seize them. Their lives will win you back those ships."

"If I send the Brazen Beasts into the pyramids, it will mean open war inside the city. I have to trust in Hizdahr. I have to hope for peace." Dany held the parchment above a candle and watched the names go up in flame, while Skahaz glowered at her.

Afterward, Ser Barristan told her that her brother Rhaegar would have been proud of her. Dany remembered the words Ser Jorah had spoken at Astapor: Rhaegar fought valiantly, Rhaegar fought nobly, Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaegar died.

 

[AlaskanSandman]

On 9/4/2018 at 5:06 AM, Lord Varys said:

I'm not sure Ned actually thinks that Jon is a bastard - but even if he did, then this could be due to his view of bigamy not being a thing, etc.

The main reason why I think Lyanna may have been afraid for her son is not so much that Robert would have crushed his little skull, too, but rather that he ends up being a pawn in another silly little game of thrones leading to war. Remember Myrcella - to crown her is to kill her. A similar fate may have awaited Lyanna's son if he had remained in the clutches of the Kingsguard or whoever they might have intended to deliver him to.

Even if Ned had made Lyanna's son his ward without lying about his identity (which I think Ned could have forced Robert to agree to if the alternative would have been that or war against Winterfell) then the boy would still not have been safe from people raising in his name against Robert, etc. just as it didn't help Aegon II that Aegon III was his hostage.

Connington explicitly thinks about Rhaegar's first marriage, the moment his 'silver prince' was technically no longer available for Jon to 'marry' him. He never thinks about Lyanna at all, presumably because that hurts to much - after all, it seems very likely that Rhaegar actually did love Lyanna Stark, not Jon Connington. Elia was just a nuisance, a woman Rhaegar was fond of.

And then there is the odd fact that Connington really specifies who Aegon's mother was in his introduction speech.

The idea that Lyanna would be a princess just because she married a prince doesn't seem to hold water if you look at the text. I throw titles like Princess Consort of Dragonstone or Dowager Princess of Dragonstone to stress the fact that a Lyanna married to Rhaegar would have been part of the royal family, too, but it doesn't seem to be the case that spouses take the titles of their husbands or wives. Laenor Velaryon remains a Ser even after he had married Rhaenyra, Laena Velaryon is a mere lady as Daemon's wife. Alyssa Velaryon is no princess as Prince Aenys wife, and neither is Ceryse Hightower as Maegor's. And so on and so forth.

But the idea that nobody would have suspected that Lyanna was carrying Rhaegar's child makes no sense in any scenario. Especially in a scenario in which neither Rhaegar nor Ned later talked about Lyanna much - in that case even a blind guy would have thought the Jon Snow bastard must be Rhaegar's son by Lyanna.

The art of keeping that a (pretty good) secret would be to keep those things separate in the eyes of the public and that only works if there is a cover story in place and everybody and their grandmother believe they know what happened to Lyanna Stark and her child by Prince Rhaegar.

The idea that Rhaegar already helped to create such a cover story by not talking about Lyanna and his relationship to her at all simply makes no sense to me. If anyone of us were Rhaegar he would have talked about his beloved wife and the son she was giving to him, not to mention that the memory of Lyanna (if they parted on good terms) should have filled him with uncharacteristic joy. For anybody knowing Rhaegar it should have been very easy to decipher what was going on even if the man didn't tell anyone anything.

I think that possibility is most definitely there in any case. The idea is that Ned met Jon's mother in that time, and Cat believes the boy was conceived after her own marriage. That is the story Ned must have told her, and it is also the reason why Cat feels betrayed because the bastard was fathered after Eddard Stark was married, and not before, when he was under no obligation to stay faithful to his lady wife.

Considering Jon's real age Ned could easily have told Cat or indicated a variation of the fisherman's daughter story - him meeting a woman long before his marriage with Catelyn Tully was even on the table. But this wasn't done. And there is likely a reason for that.

But to make the story of Jon Snow being conceived and born after the Robb Ned must indeed have spent a pretty long time in the south - in fact, one wonders whether Ned would have even acknowledged this Jon fellow if his mother was supposed to be some lowborn wench he had sex with one or two times while he was making camp in this or that place. Would such a woman even have the means to contact the Lord of Winterfell after his return to KL and the North? How could such a woman possibly contact such a man?

Instead, the official story would likely be that Ned spend time with 'the mother' of his bastard and was present when the child was born, acknowledging him as his child immediately thereafter due to his looks and then arranging his journey to Winterfell (not by way of KL, of course, one imagines).

Exactly. The whole talk about Rhaegar/Targaryen stuff and Ned's bastard between Robert and Ned certainly makes this a possibility. I think I've once laid out a pretty convincing case that it might indeed be that Robert knows exactly who 'Jon Snow' actually is, but is willing to look the other way. He is very accustomed doing that - after all, he doesn't see himself, Stannis, Renly, Shireen, or his own children as 'dragonspawn', never mind that they all are.

I think a very interesting question there can be the reason why Robert continuously draws Eddard Stark into this whole Targaryen business. He is the king. He can just command Varys to murder the Targaryens. He doesn't have to talk to his Hand or any of his other advisers about that. But he wants Ned's opinion on the marriage plans of Daenerys just as he wants his opinion - again - on how to deal with the pregnant Daenerys. Part of it might be to force others to share the blame for this vile thing, but it might also be some - consciously or unconsciously - a test whether Ned is as firmly in his camp as he thinks he is or whether he would side with the family of his 'bastard' if Viserys or Dany would ever show up.

Robert's hatred of Rhaegar is personal, but the real hatred is only for Rhaegar. The other descendants of Aerys II (whom Robert also did not hate all that much, it seems) are all obstacles to his claim to the throne, but they are not people he hates with the same passion. He likes playing the 'I hate Rhaegar/them all' when he talks about killing Daenerys and Viserys for political reasons, but if Robert had truly been obsessed with this Targaryen hate then Viserys and Dany would have been long killed, and he would have probably also started to target all the other legitimate or illegitimate cadet branches of the house that weren't Baratheons - meaning Tarths, Penroses, Plumms, Martells, etc. Not to mention starting a thorough search for Targaryen bastards - especially such of Aerys II. That is what a man truly obsessed with hate of this family would have done.

If Robert hated Targaryens so much and would kill any he could get a hold of, why didn't he kill Aemon Targaryen? Why didn't he kill Daenerys and Viserys years ago? He didn't even order a hit till Daenerys was getting married. Could not some one have talked him into it? Varys? Baelish (one would assume he knows of Daenerys too)?

Robert appears to mostly just hate Rheagar and tolerated the over kill actions of Tywin as a necessary evil he likely didn't want to have to decide on any ways. Had Tywin not murdered them, Robert, who forgave manyyyy lords, would likely have spared them imo. Or maybe even let them rule? Who's to say? Robert never wanted to be king so far as we know. Why didn't Eddard become king? Why didn't Jon Arryn? Roberts Targaryen blood? He had to be the one? Did he want to though? 

[Bael's Bastard]

4 minutes ago, AlaskanSandman said:

If Robert hated Targaryens so much and would kill any he could get a hold of, why didn't he kill Aemon Targaryen? Why didn't he kill Daenerys and Viserys years ago? He didn't even order a hit till Daenerys was getting married. Could not some one have talked him into it? Varys? Baelish (one would assume he knows of Daenerys too)?

Robert appears to mostly just hate Rheagar and tolerated the over kill actions of Tywin as a necessary evil he likely didn't want to have to decide on any ways. Had Tywin not murdered them, Robert, who forgave manyyyy lords, would likely have spared them imo. Or maybe even let them rule? Who's to say? Robert never wanted to be king so far as we know. Why didn't Eddard become king? Why didn't Jon Arryn? Roberts Targaryen blood? He had to be the one? Did he want to though? 

Robert might not have been aware that Aemon Targaryen was alive at the Wall, as he had willingly chosen to go to the Wall 30 years before Robert was born, 50 years before Robert became king.

If Robert was aware of Aemon, there are a number of reasons he might have just chosen not to bother, whether by his own choice, or being convinced by Jon and Ned. Aemon was extremely old, and bound by the oaths of both the Citadel and the Night's Watch. He posed no physical threat to Robert, and had little chance of fathering a child that would come back to haunt Robert or his descendants. He would likely die soon, and it wasn't worth alienating the Night's Watch, and the North which still has regard for it, by killing one of their sworn brothers. Assuming Robert wanted to kill Aemon, it should have been easier to convince him not to kill Aemon than it was to convince him not to kill Viserys and Daenerys, which we know Jon was able to do.

The king's mouth twisted in a bitter grimace. "No, gods be cursed. Some pox-ridden Pentoshi cheesemonger had her brother and her walled up on his estate with pointy-hatted eunuchs all around them, and now he's handed them over to the Dothraki. I should have had them both killed years ago, when it was easy to get at them, but Jon was as bad as you. More fool I, I listened to him." (AGOT: Eddard II)

Lord Renly shrugged. "The matter seems simple enough to me. We ought to have had Viserys and his sister killed years ago, but His Grace my brother made the mistake of listening to Jon Arryn." (AGOT: Eddard VIII)

It is safe to assume Ned wasn't present at that time (whether he was still down south, or had returned North), as only Jon is named, and we would expect Ned to have joined him in trying to convince Robert not to have Viserys and Daenerys killed, considering such a discussion would have occurred after the murder of Rhaegar's children, which we know Ned objected to. 

We know that Robert had sent Stannis to capture Dragonstorm and the surviving Targaryens with it, though it isn't clear whether he had already been convinced by Jon not to kill them before the assault on Dragonstone, or only after they had escaped.

"Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me. Oh, Robert loved him, to be sure. Loved him as a brother, how often did I hear that? I was his brother, not Ned Stark, but you would never have known it by the way he treated me. I held Storm's End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls. Did Robert thank me? No. He thanked Stark, for lifting the siege when we were down to rats and radishes. I built a fleet at Robert's command, took Dragonstone in his name. Did he take my hand and say, Well done, brother, whatever should I do without you? No, he blamed me for letting Willem Darry steal away Viserys and the babe, as if I could have stopped it. I sat on his council for fifteen years, helping Jon Arryn rule his realm while Robert drank and whored, but when Jon died, did my brother name me his Hand? No, he went galloping off to his dear friend Ned Stark, and offered him the honor. And small good it did either of them." (ACOK: Prologue)

I suspect that Jon only convinced Robert not to try to kill Viserys and Daenerys after the Targaryens had narrowly escaped Stannis, and after Oberyn was said to be trying to raise Dorne for Viserys.

"Dwarf," said the Red Viper, in a tone grown markedly less cordial, "spare me your Lannister lies. Is it sheep you take us for, or fools? My brother is not a bloodthirsty man, but neither has he been asleep for sixteen years. Jon Arryn came to Sunspear the year after Robert took the throne, and you can be sure that he was questioned closely. Him, and a hundred more. I did not come for some mummer's show of an inquiry. I came for justice for Elia and her children, and I will have it. Starting with this lummox Gregor Clegane . . . but not, I think, ending there. Before he dies, the Enormity That Rides will tell me whence came his orders, please assure your lord father of that." He smiled. "An old septon once claimed I was living proof of the goodness of the gods. Do you know why that is, Imp?" (ASOS: Tyrion V)

"No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Sunspear to return Prince Lewyn's bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war. But Robert never went to Dorne thereafter, and Prince Oberyn seldom left it." (ASOS: Tyrion VI)

I suspect Jon assured Doran that Robert would leave Viserys and Daenerys alone in exile and that Dorne would face no repercussions for what they were plotting, so long as they agreed not to "crown" Viserys and lend support to him to try to retake the Iron Throne.

I would agree that Robert was probably uncomfortable with the murder of Rhaegar's children, but his hatred for Targaryens was legit. He might have started out only hating Rhaegar, but any distinction of hating only Rhaegar seems unlikely to have survived Aerys murdering his best friend's father and brother, and the nephew/heir of the man who was like a father to him, and commanding the man who was like a father to him to take off his own head and the head of his best friend. Let's not forget that Robert killed Rhaegar while he was leading Aerys's forces.

Now, I believe there are probably a lot of nuances to the relationship between Rhaegar and Aerys, especially over that last two years. But Robert clearly hates Aerys and his entire family, and is explicit that they would have killed Aerys had they captured him alive. Robert might have been uncomfortable ordering the execution of Targaryen babes in front of him, or doing it himself, but he hated those Targaryens, and in his wroth, he had no problem ordering the death of Daenerys and her unborn baby from half a world away. He later regretted it, and tried to rescind it, but that only testifies to the fact that he made the call in the first place.

Based on an SSM by GRRM, Robert appears to have been chosen from among the rebel leaders some time around the Battle of the Trident. Jaime indicates he knew Robert to have been the chosen from among the rebel leaders at the time he killed Aerys. There is no chance the rebel leaders would have put a Targaryen on the throne. They renounced Targaryen rule, and went to war against them to remove them from the Iron Throne, not place one of their babes on it.

Robert might not have wanted to be king, but Ned and Jon likely convinced him. Ned was a Northman who worshiped the wrong gods. Jon was an old man whose near and distant heirs had both been killed in 282-283 AC. Robert had been the "face" of the rebellion, he had the Targaryen ancestry, and he had demonstrated he could father children. He was the all around obvious choice, whether he liked it or not.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Robert might not have been aware that Aemon Targaryen was alive at the Wall, as he had willingly chosen to go to the Wall 30 years before Robert was born, 50 years before Robert became king.

If Robert was aware of Aemon, there are a number of reasons he might have just chosen not to bother, whether by his own choice, or being convinced by Jon and Ned. Aemon was extremely old, and bound by the oaths of both the Citadel and the Night's Watch. He posed no physical threat to Robert, and had little chance of fathering a child that would come back to haunt Robert or his descendants. He would likely die soon, and it wasn't worth alienating the Night's Watch, and the North which still has regard for it, by killing one of their sworn brothers. Assuming Robert wanted to kill Aemon, it should have been easier to convince him not to kill Aemon than it was to convince him not to kill Viserys and Daenerys, which we know Jon was able to do.

Stannis knew who Aemon was, and not because the man introduced himself as 'Aemon of House Targaryen and your own great-granduncle'. That makes it very likely that Robert knew of his uncle at the Wall, too. But there was no reason to care about him, just as there was no good reason to kill bastard children with no claims.

But there is no reason whatsoever that Robert actually wanted to kill all Targaryens. He allowed himself to live, his children, and his brothers - not to mention the Martells, Tarths, Penroses, Plumms, etc.

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

We know that Robert had sent Stannis to capture Dragonstorm and the surviving Targaryens with it, though it isn't clear whether he had already been convinced by Jon not to kill them before the assault on Dragonstone, or only after they had escaped.

While we don't know, we don't know. Viserys III Targaryen only becomes a real danger in exile where he can plot and scheme and try to launch an invasion or arrange an uprising, etc. Such a person is truly a danger whereas a hostage would not be. In that sense, chances are not that bad that Robert did actually not want Stannis to kill pregnant Rhaella and young Viserys.

Could also be he gave Stannis a secret command to kill them all. We don't know. Stannis might reveal stuff about that when people tell him finally about Daenerys.

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I suspect Jon assured Doran that Robert would leave Viserys and Daenerys alone in exile and that Dorne would face no repercussions for what they were plotting, so long as they agreed not to "crown" Viserys and lend support to him to try to retake the Iron Throne.

Could be. Not sure, though, why Jon should think Doran and Oberyn would actually truly care about the Mad King's children. Their issues were first and foremost with the Martell-Targaryen branch of the royal family which had been cruelly butchered. Viserys III was always nothing but a pawn in Doran's schemes.

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I would agree that Robert was probably uncomfortable with the murder of Rhaegar's children, but his hatred for Targaryens was legit. He might have started out only hating Rhaegar, but any distinction of hating only Rhaegar seems unlikely to have survived Aerys murdering his best friend's father and brother, and the nephew/heir of the man who was like a father to him, and commanding the man who was like a father to him to take off his own head and the head of his best friend. Let's not forget that Robert killed Rhaegar while he was leading Aerys's forces.

But Robert never expresses any real hatred of Aerys II. His 'Somebody had to kill Aerys' makes the Mad King an afterthought or accessory to his crusade against Rhaegar the wife-stealing rapist. Not punishing people who prove their loyalty to 'King Robert' by putting down the get of Rhaegar in war is one thing, actually commanding the murders of innocent women and children is another.

And the whole thing is doubly telling considering that Eddard Stark should have been the one hating the Targaryens even more than Robert. Robert was not Lyanna's husband. The Starks could have canceled that marriage contract. No vows had been said, not maidenhead had been claimed. It was Eddard Stark who lost his sister, his brother, and his father to the Targaryens, not Robert Baratheon. He lost no family member and actually won a crown in the process of the whole thing.

The truly wronged party here is House Stark. And if Ned can still loath Jaime over killing Aerys and despise Tywin for killing Elia and the children then this is a pretty big issue, showing us that Robert is not really in a position where his 'righteous war' is justified.

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Now, I believe there are probably a lot of nuances to the relationship between Rhaegar and Aerys, especially over that last two years. But Robert clearly hates Aerys and his entire family, and is explicit that they would have killed Aerys had they captured him alive. Robert might have been uncomfortable ordering the execution of Targaryen babes in front of him, or doing it himself, but he hated those Targaryens, and in his wroth, he had no problem ordering the death of Daenerys and her unborn baby from half a world away. He later regretted it, and tried to rescind it, but that only testifies to the fact that he made the call in the first place.

Aerys II had to go for obvious reasons, but it should have been either 'death in battle' or the execution of a tyrannical king. Not murder committed by a traitor and oathbreaker. Ned only had issues with the manner of the deed, not the deed itself - exactly like Cregan Stark at the end of the Dance. He wanted to kill Aegon II, too, but not by cravens who turned their cloak.

He insists on the death of Daenerys only when she becomes a danger, and he clearly has problems with that. He goes to his Small Council so that he doesn't have to command that thing all by himself. He wants his advisers to agree with him and share the blame. That is also the reason why he draws Ned into all this.

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Based on an SSM by GRRM, Robert appears to have been chosen from among the rebel leaders some time around the Battle of the Trident. Jaime indicates he knew Robert to have been the chosen from among the rebel leaders at the time he killed Aerys. There is no chance the rebel leaders would have put a Targaryen on the throne. They renounced Targaryen rule, and went to war against them to remove them from the Iron Throne, not place one of their babes on it.

We don't know how exactly this all went. And it is actually something the author should finally deliver within the story, not so much in obscure remarks. What the rebels actually wanted to achieve when the war began is an interesting issue, as is the question why and how they reached the conclusion that Robert the Moron would make a good king? We do know Robert put forth his claim near the end of the war - meaning that there is no confirmation of something like 'they were denouncing the Targaryens as a whole' as early as the first fighting in the Vale. Daemon Blackfyre proclaimed himself king at the beginning of his campaign, not the end of it, just as Robb Stark did. But Robert Baratheon was clearly different - if that SSM is still canon. [I'd not be surprised if George were changing the story and have Robert declare himself king after his return to the Stormlands.]

Who came up with the idea of making Robert king? And why? Why Robert and not Viserys III or Aegon VI or one of the girls with the competent rebels serving as regents? Wouldn't that have been a great way to draw Tywin into their coalition by offering him the Handship? Not to mention a good way to make a real peace with the Targaryen loyalists restore peace in the Realm?

They may have agreed early on that Aerys II had to go, but what issues had Jon Arryn and Eddard Stark with Rhaegar? What if Rhaegar had never led the army at the Trident and had shown up later with Lyanna, his son by her, and the Tyrell army? Would Ned and Jon have insisted to kill Rhaegar? What right did Robert have to kill Robert over the marriage issue thing if Lord Stark had sided with his sister?

And even if we agree the rebels had 'a right' to kill Rhaegar, too, this doesn't mean Robert becomes king - Viserys, Aegon, Rhaenys, Daenerys, and Rhaella are still out there.

Somebody must have wanted a crown there - and chances are that this somebody was either Robert or Jon Arryn, because Ned clearly wasn't that guy.