R+L=J v.165

[Frey family reunion]

On ‎10‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 1:18 AM, Ygrain said:

In case it escaped your attention, the whole scene is left purposefully ambiguous. A blue flower, a stone beast.... yet a couple chapters later, we learn that Dany did identify the flower, as a blue rose. Dany knows that Rhaegar supposedly "died for the woman he loved", knows about "his northern girl" whom he "carried off at swordpoint". The one and only female name that would make sense to Dany in this context is Lyanna. If she couldn't recognize the name at all, she wouldn't know it was a female name. If the name was completely unrelated to Rhaegar, she would wonder later why the hell he said "Susan" as his last word. If it was "Elia", she would have thought that he must have loved her, after all, when Barristan claims that he was "fond of " Elia.

I think that this is a fair rebuttal.  Even the Prince isn't named in the vision, although Dany would surely at least assume that it's Rhaegar based on the rubies, and dying in water.  My main issue is citing the app as authority that Rhaegar said Lyanna as he lay dying.  If the author wanted to clarify that, he could have, and until he does, I think it's a fair question. 

But your point also highlights a criticism that JNR brought up above.  The visions that Dany is receiving at this point in her journey in the HOTU all have a dreamlike quality to them.  I don't think we can assume that any of them accurately reflect reality.  Even the vision of Viserys which depicts his death doesn't match what Dany actually observed, considering that the brazier was covering Viserys head when he was killed.  And the other vision in that trilogy is obviously not an actual event that has occurred or can ever occur as depicted in the vision (if indeed that is Rhaego we see beneath the banner of the burning horse banner).

As JNR points out, where is Robert?  Where is Robert's warhammer, where is Rhaegar's horse and how does he speak after a warhammer has crushed in his chest?  Instead we have Rhaegar falling dramatically to his knees, and his rubies spilling from his armor like blood.  I think that we're looking at a fantasy image of the events of the Trident as opposed to the uglier reality of the Trident. 

So to argue that the House of the Undying vision helps prove that Rhaegar actually “loved” Lyanna we have to assume 1) That the name he whispered was indeed Lyanna, 2) that the vision accurately depicts Rhaegar’s death on the Trident and 3) that if he did speak Lyanna’s name at the time of his death it was as a last declaration of his love for her.

I bring up point 3), because interestingly enough, we can compare the death scene of Robb and the alleged death scene of Jon and see what words they utter as they are confronted with their mortality.

Quote

“Yes Robb, get up.  Get up and walk out, please, please.  Save yourself … if not for me, for Jeyne.”

“Jeyne?”  Robb grabbed the edge of the table and forced himself to stand.  “Mother,” he said, “Grey Wind … “

Here as Robb is confronted with his own mortality he seems to even forget who Jeyne is.  The woman that he loved and married, the woman who’s marriage cost him so much.  Instead what I think he’s doing is calling out for help to his two primary protectors his mother and his direwolf. 

Likewise we have Jon’s “final” words:

Quote

Jon fell to his knees.  He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free.  In the cold night air the wound was smoking.  “Ghost,” he whispered.  Pain washed over him.

Likewise, it looks like Jon’s “final” words are a call for help.

This in a final roundabout way brings me back to Rhaegar and Dany’s vision of Rhaegar’s death on the Trident.  Assuming that you're correct and Rhaegar called out Lyanna's name as he lay dying,  does who  Robb and Jon called out to at the time of their deaths give us a hint as to the true nature of the relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna?

After all there is something about Rhaegar’s sudden decision to enter the tourney (and possibly even cheat his way past Selmy) so he can be in a position to crown Lyanna.  Now it could be as simple as Rhaegar discerning that Lyanna is the KOTLT and him being inspired to win the joust for her and show his appreciation.  Or it could be that the KOTLT made a connection in Rhaegar with one of the prophecies that he is concerned with.  But the possibility that intrigues me the most is that Rhaegar may have found a common bond with Lyanna if in fact they are both latent telepaths. 

As Varamyr tells us:

Quote

One skinchanger can always sense another.

In other words, one telepath can sense another. 

So if Rhaegar did indeed call out Lyanna's name as he was dying on the Trident, was it as simple as a dying declaration of love for Lyanna, or could it be more akin to what Robb and Jon did as they were confronted with their own mortality, and he was actually calling out for help to a fellow telepath?

[JNR]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Even the Prince isn't named in the vision, although Dany would surely at least assume that it's Rhaegar based on the rubies, and dying in water.  My main issue is citing the app as authority that Rhaegar said Lyanna as he lay dying.

It's an interesting point, isn't it?

About the HOTU visions, we're told they are:

Quote

Sights and sounds of days gone by and days to come and days that never were.

OK.  So basically we have three possibilities for this particular vision.

(1) If the vision was of "days gone by," then it really just has to be Rhaegar.  But then we have some issues with how it's described as happening.

(2) If the vision was of "days to come," then there are various logical options.

For instance, in a future book, Aegon might decide to wear black armor with rubies on the chest as a PR gesture to support his central claim: that he is Rhaegar's son.  Reminding people visually of Rhaegar, by wearing Rhaegar-like armor, would help.

If he does this, and he is killed, and that is the vision Dany saw... then Dany would not acknowledge him as Rhaegar in the vision (as indeed she doesn't).  And the text would make better sense because he might be killed on his feet, and not in as instantly devastating a manner as Rhaegar died, and hence, might be able to speak a woman's name (and it might be "Arianne Martell").

(3) Finally, if the vision was of "days that never were," then FFR suggests it could simply be a romantic fantasy of what happened at the Trident, that Dany believes because Viserys told it to her.  And yet it would not be real.

At the moment we have no clear way to know.

 

[SFDanny]

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Selmy directly admits that he doesn't know what was in Rhaegar's heart when he crowned Lyanna.  He also admits that Rhaegar trusted him less than Arthur and Harrenhal was proof of that.  The World Book also indicates that Rhaegar had an inner circle, and Selmy's name was not included.    So while I agree that Rhaegar and Selmy may have worked together to rally the troops, I think it's highly possible that Selmy was left in the dark as to Rhaegar's true motivations in his actions at Harrenhal.  I mean just because people fight and go to war together, it doesn't mean that they necessarily really know the inner thoughts of that the person.  I.e. Robb and Roose, or Tyrion and Mandon Moore to name two extreme examples.

As for Connington, I'm sure that he does have an opinion of Lyanna, but it may not be as a romantic rival.  The fact that he appears jealous of Elia's marriage to Rhaegar but doesn't think of Lyanna makes me a tad suspicious.  Of course it could be that Connington believed that while Elia was unworthy of Rhaegar, Lyanna wasn't.  Maybe.  But my guess is that Connington truly believed that only he was worthy of Rhaegar.  

But we aren't debating whether Ser Barristan was part of Rhaegar's inner circle at Harrenhal. We are discussing whether or not his clear belief that Rhaegar loved Lyanna has any basis for being true. The answer to that is that there is likely a solid basis for Ser Barristan to think as he does. As I've already pointed out, as a member of the Kingsguard, when Ser Gerold, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell are all absent, he spends time doing the tasks Rhaegar is charged to do when he returns to King's Landing. It is Ser Barristan and Prince Lewyn who are sent to organize the troops who fled the defeat at Stony Sept. We know Jaime is kept close to Aerys as a hostage to Tywin's behavior. We know Lewyn is sent to deliver a message to the Prince of Dorne and to take charge of Dornish troops. That leaves Darry and Selmy to help with the muster of new army to fight the rebels and to guard the Crown Prince. This is a time of months that Ser Barristan and Rhaegar must have contact, and which it is likely Rhaegar must depend on Selmy for aid. To dismiss his knowledge on Rhaegar's feelings towards Lyanna because Selmy wasn't in Rhaegar's inner circle over a year previously is just a misreading of the facts as we have them.

As to Connington, it may be that he doesn't believe anyone was worthy of his prince. What he thought about Lyanna, I'd prefer to wait to see him mention her name before I guess.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I don't think you need fan fiction to support the fact that there is evidence that Rhaegar loved Lyanna.

I will never understand or agree with disregarding of evidence over some arbitrary line drawn about what is "worthy" to consider. Evaluate the evidence in question and show me why it doesn't mean what it says or the source got it wrong. Then, and only then, will I agree some bit of evidence should not be considered. The naming of the app as "fan fiction" is just pure, unadulterated, BS. The app is authorized by the author and he knows what was included in it. Given Martin's hatred of "fan fiction," it makes no sense that he would give his name to the app if he thought it was really "fan fiction." Undoubtedly there are parts of the app information that are not true; just as there is no doubt some information in canon resources are false. The whole point is to use what evidence we have to make the most informed judgements possible. That includes semi-canon resources like Martin's remarks and sources like the app.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I don't think you need fan fiction to support the fact that there is evidence that Rhaegar loved Lyanna.  The POVs of Dany and Kevan Lannister certainly constitutes "evidence" of this.  The question is how much weight to give said evidence.  Usually when Martin makes something this explicit, we should treat it with much caution.  After all in Dany's first POV chapter we're told that this war was fought over Rhaegar's love for Lyanna.

I'm all for treating all evidence with caution. On that much we agree. I also agree that the evidence in the app is not necessary to reach the conclusion that Rhaegar loved Lyanna. It is just one more bit that contributes to the whole. It's a nice bit of information because it confirms what many assume from Dany's POV chapters. When both her recounting of the Viserys's tales and her vision in the HOTU speak of Rhaegar "dying for the woman he loved" and "Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman's name" we have to compare that information to the app. They support each other. The idea the app's entry is an outlier in describing Rhaegar's death just isn't supported by anything. The place and manner of Rhaegar's death are supported not just by these citations in the text, but by multiple other accounts we can also cite. The only thing the app adds is Lyanna's name.

Of course this addition is critical because unlike what you say about Dany's first POV chapter it doesn't include Lyanna's name as the woman Rhaegar died for. And if it was the only thing that pointed to Rhaegar loving Lyanna, I too would think it highly unusual to find it out here. What the app follows, however, is not only the published citations in A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings, but in all the other published works in the series including A Dance with Dragons by which time we have abundant evidence to support the idea Rhaegar loved Lyanna. Revealing the name Rhaegar spoke as he died is less of a reveal when we add all the evidence together we have from the published books in the series proper. It instead looks to be Martin's way of saying this is no longer a question to ponder if you have been paying attention to the other clues as they have been revealed in the books.

But again, it is very, very important to not make the mistake that the evidence Rhaegar loved Lyanna means Lyanna loved Rhaegar, or that she went with him willingly. Nor does it mean that Rhaegar was solely motivated by love for Lyanna. Those conclusions must come with other support, some of which you and I have cited, and the merits of those conclusions must rest primarily on that other smaller body of evidence.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

The reasons I've ultimately decided to disregard this as a motivation is as follows:

1) The basis of their relationship is on a gossamer thin string.  There simply isn't enough interaction to justify the formation of a true relationship.  A sad song, an alleged daring, spunky, commendable joust, and a crown of flowers makes for a nice fairy tale, but it seems a fairly shallow, unrealistic motivation for Rhaegar's fairly extreme and self-destructive actions.  And then there's that awkward bit sandwiched inbetween where Rhaegar travels back with his pregnant wife to see to the birth of his son, whom he proclaims to be a prophesied messiah. 

2) It seems contrary to what we're told about Rhaegar.  First  he is compared to Baelor the Blessed, i.e. duty above temptation.  Then we're told that it wasn't in Rhaegar to be happy.   In Dany's vision, Rhaegar's statement that there needs to be a third head of the dragon is accompanied by sadness.  Then we're told that Rhaegar's one true love is Summerhall.  And we're told that Summerhall deals with an obsession over dragons.  

3) Rhaegar also seems to believe in prophecy, a dragon with three heads, a prince that was promised, and a song of ice and fire.  Aemon directly relates the prince that was promised with the War for the Dawn.  It seems very unlikely that Aemon would believe this yet Rhaegar wouldn't.  In other words, it seems fairly clear to me that Rhaegar was preparing for the Long Night.

4) For Rhaegar to risk all of this and risk open warfare for a girl he really doesn't know makes him appear to be a starry eyed, romantic and a fairly insipid one at that.  While I admit I find that prospect amusing, I don't think it's really supported in the story.

"Gossamer"? Really? You accept as fact that Rhaegar is not only motivated by prophecy, but that he is primarily motivated in his relationship with Lyanna by the need to have another child because the dragon has three heads. Where do we get this evidence? From one vision in the House of the Undying. That is the only place, I know of, that places Rhaegar's need for a third child from the realm of prophecy. Now, it so happens I also think this is true, but the evidence is beyond "gossamer." I just point out your standard by which you judge evidence is highly conveniently adjustable depending on what you want the outcome to be.

1. There are a number of unlikely assumptions here. First, you assume that a love affair between the two has to take place at the Harrenhal tourney. While this is possible, I think it highly unlikely. Given the fact Lyanna is accompanied by three brothers and doubtless Stark servants it seems unlikely that the highly visible crown prince and the young Lady Stark have a lot of alone time. It is much more likely that an attraction starts there, but any love affair starts after the "kidnapping." If Rhaegar finds Lyanna and unmasks her as the Knight of the Laughing Tree, then they may have some time alone and it may be the start of love. After all, a beautiful young woman who courageously fights for the marginalized and against blatant prejudice might find many people who admired her and more than admired her. But a consummated love affair? Unlikely.

As to Rhaegar's "extreme and self-destructive actions," I think you totally misread the politics of Harrenhal if you think the crowning of Lyanna was self-destructive act. It wasn't the outcome Rhaegar planned the tourney for, but that doesn't make it self-destructive.  It was sending a message to those who rejected Rhaegar's offer to join together to peacefully remove his father. Not to the Aerys partisans in attendance who would never join with him, but to those who made it clear that it was not just Aerys they wanted removed, but Targaryen rule itself. The leader of that political faction in attendance at the tourney was Brandon Stark, and his actions with the Lady Ashara Dayne, the companion to Princess Elia and sister to Rhaegar's closest friend, predate Rhaegar's naming Lyanna his queen of love and beauty. What we see is not a self-destructive act of a irrational lovestruck man, but a calculated political response to Brandon and the entire STAB bloc. It is a consolidation of the Targaryens, temporarily, to have both father and son send the same message to the bloc - we will stop your alliance. We will not be removed. Aerys does it with Jaime's ceremony, and Rhaegar, after the rejection of his offer, does so in the same way his father did. He honors Lyanna with his garland of roses instead of a white cloak, but in so doing states categorically that he has an interest in the marriage between Robert and Lyanna not going forward and he will oppose it. That is what angers Brandon, not that Rhaegar's action is sexually inappropriate or insulting to Lyanna, but Rhaegar's action threatens the High Lord's right of the Starks and others to make these pacts and thereby build a power in opposition to the Iron Throne. Does it also send a more personal message to Lyanna at the same time? I think it does, but that is not what send Brandon into a fit of rage. It is the backhanded slap sent to the bloc and Brandon in particular. 

That this political consolidation between father and son lasts a relative short time - likely ending in the moment Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna and doesn't bring her to Aerys - is another matter. The shifting grounds of Westerosi politics of this time move fast.

2 - 4 Here again you make the mistake, in my opinion, of looking at motivations from prophecy and duty as in contradiction to ones of love or politics. I agree there is plenty of evidence that prophecy plays an important role in Rhaegar's view. It must have in all Targaryens to a greater or lesser degree. After all escaping the doom of Valyria because of a dream might make a lot of people believe in prophecy. Certainly having dragons haunt your dreams would effect anyone. But that doesn't mean one can't fall in love or experience joy when you find it. Even if one has to wait to find it in a dusty old broken down tower overlooking the Prince's Pass.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

While I'll win no converts over this, I think that the story's closest equivalent to Rhaegar in terms of character motivation is probably Melisandre.  Both seem to put much stock in prophecy, and specifically in prophecies involved in the fighting of a war for the dawn.  Melisandre is a seductress, but she does it for a purpose.  My guess is that if Rhaegar became a seducer he did it for the ultimate purpose, trying to orchestrate the fulfillment of prophecy.

What similarity you see is that both believe in the power of prophecy. I certainly would not dispute that observation. Taking it the next step without much more to back it up is completely a bridge too far without much more evidence.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

But why wouldn't he want to reveal it?  At that point in the story, the reader has already assumed that this be the case.  The only purpose in not explicitly revealing the name is to allow the reader to continue along a primrose path, that may not be correct.

The point we are talking about is in A Clash of Kings, published in 1999. All of the clues that clearly state Rhaegar's love for Lyanna and most of those that continue the hinting that Robert's view of what happened might be wrong are well after this - a decade or more in some cases. No, the reader doesn't already know this when Dany sees her vision in the House of the Undying.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I'm not saying that Ned should have corrected Robert, I'm just saying Ned could have just as easily stayed quiet and not further reinforced Robert's belief that Rhaegar was at least partly responsible for Lyanna's fate.  Especially since he is worried about Robert's obsession with Rhaegar.  Or in the alternative of staying quiet, he could have merely reminded Robert that he already killed Rhaegar at the Trident.  Instead he goes one step further, and confirms for Robert that killing Rheagar was indeed vengeance for Lyanna.  Eddard will lie, granted, but he seems really uptight over it.  Yet these words seemed to leave his lips fairly easily.

The first time Ned and Robert discuss this in the crypts he does exactly what you say he could have done 

Quote

"I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her"

"You did," Ned reminded him.

"Only once," Robert said bitterly.

<snip> description of Robert and Rhaegar's personal combat at the Trident </snip>

"In my dreams, I kill him every night," Robert admitted. "A thousand deaths will still be less than he deserves."

There was nothing Ned could say to that. (AGoT 36) bold emphasis added

It is only in the second discussion among the barrows of the First Men that Ned speaks to Robert's sense of vengeance. What follows immediately after Ned's words to Robert is critical for the reader.

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"You avenged Lyanna at the Trident," Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered. (AGoT 97) bold emphasis added

That Ned thinks immediately after he speaks of Robert avenging Lyanna at the Trident about his promises to Lyanna she had extracted from him on her deathbed should tell the reader that something is being left unsaid. Perhaps that it was not a vengeance Lyanna wanted.

Now, I think Ned might have once believed in Rhaegar's death as a righteous act of vengeance. I also think this changes the moment Ned sees his friend accept Tywin's tribute and pronounce the brutal murder of innocent women and children as nothing more than the deaths of "dragonspawn." It certainly changes in his acceptance of the tasks the dying Lyanna lays upon him.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I'm sorry, but luring or kidnapping Lyanna away to prevent a marriage pact is a ludicrous attempt to block a political alliance.  What Aerys did with Jaime was completely different and actually fairly clever.  You bestow a very public honor on Jaime that Tywin can't openly oppose while you rob Tywin of his heir and one of his two bargaining chips in creating a political alliance.

Rhaegar already being married, secretly luring or kidnapping away from her family without their consent, and making himself the primary suspect is all kinds of lunacy.  Let's say for the sake of argument he lured Lyanna away for a political purpose.  While a stupid political move, the next act would be to make a very public wedding between the two to force the hand of Rickard Stark to ultimately capitulate.  

Otherwise in this feudal society, there is really no difference between kidnapping Lyanna kicking and screaming or luring her away without her family's permission.  Both acts are basically going to be considered a theft from the Starks.

Well, we agree Aerys's act of naming Jaime to his Kingsguard was, for a time, very clever. I have my doubts he came up with it all himself, and in the king's lasts moments of life I'm sure he had some regrets about it.

Both the naming of Jaime to the Kingsguard and the naming of Lyanna as the Harrenhal tourney's queen of love and beauty are very public acts done before the same assembly of lords and ladies and other attendees at the same event. Both are honors with other messages hidden underneath. That was my point

The "kidnapping" is another event separated in months of time if not by much in place. I've already given you my thoughts on the reasons it takes place. I think the response to Harrenhal by members of the STAB bloc is to move forward with the planned marriages, and perhaps move up the schedule of when they are to happen. I think Lyanna reaches out for help to get out of a marriage she wants no part of - see her remarks to Ned about Robert's nature - and Rhaegar has a choice to either ignore her plea or to help someone he both has feelings for and to which he has already publicly pledged his willingness to intervene in betrothal. I don't think he can honorably refuse her. Even though it means bringing events into chaos. If he is to "rescue" her from her wedding as Dany seems to think he did, then he has few choices.

One of the choices he doesn't have is to do as you say and have a very public wedding and force Rickard to accept it. The problem is he isn't king. Aerys is, and he guards his own rights very, very protectively. Rhaegar would have to ask for Aerys permission to marry Lyanna as a second wife if it is to be a public marriage, and the odds of the mad monarch approving his action are nil. Not only isn't this right to a second wife given to any Targaryen after Maegor, but this is the daughter of a man Aerys thinks is plotting to overthrow him - not without reason.

At some point, I do think Rhaegar decides he wants to marry Lyanna and hopes to reveal the marriage as an already done thing, but that won't change Rickard's rejection of royal interference into his rights. Must it mean war? Perhaps, but maybe a solution could be found. Time and distance might help that possibility, or so Rhaegar must have thought. What Aerys does with Rickard and Brandon, and follows with the demands for Robert's and Ned's heads is what makes war a certainty.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

In a way I'm much less an absolutist than most.  In fact I think the whole premise of this long running thread is looking at the story in too absolute a lens.  By not considering any possibilities other than Rhaegar and Lyanna as Jon's parents a lot of theories are being built on a very shaky foundation.

Perhaps much less than some, but too much an absolutist than I think it right. I do agree you aren't the only absolutist to post in these threads from many points of view.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Yes, I'm absolutely sure that Rhaegar's actions were a result of his obsession over Summerhall, and in his beliefs of the song of ice and fire.  What I'm not sure about, is what the song of ice and fire really entails.  And without that knowledge I think it's presumptuous to assume that it must means that Targaryen + Stark = Jon which also equals the prince that was promised.  My suspicion is that the "song" is much more complicated and darker than that.

We will have to disagree about the cause and effect you favor here. I do agree with you in the complexity of the answers to our questions. "Darker"? Perhaps.

On 10/7/2018 at 6:56 PM, Frey family reunion said:

This one's quite easy to answer.  If Rhaegar was at least partly responsible for Lyanna's disappearance, then there is only one person who would be in a position to have been both a part of Rhaegar's inner circle, and been in a position to have had contact with Lyanna at the time of her disappearance.  Assuming that Ashara started a relationship with Eddard after Harrenhal (and it seems very probable at this point that they did) there is at least a decent chance that this would have also given Ashara a chance to have formed some type of friendship with Eddard's sister.  And if Rhaegar decided that Lyanna was an important part of his future plans, then Ashara could have continued what Rhaegar started at Harrenhal.

I don't see the evidence for a Ned/Ashara relationship after Harrenhal or a connection of Ashara to Lyanna. It's pure speculation. As such, you're more than right to put it out for others, but I'm not in the least persuaded.

@Frey family reunion let me end by saying I'm enjoying this discussion, but have quite a few things on my plate at the moment. Please don't take offense if I'm a little long in responding. I've also have a few other people in a other threads I need to write some responses to. 

[Lady Barbrey]

On 10/2/2018 at 6:08 AM, SirArthur said:

Well ... I don't know. It would be interesting to know the sigil of house Targaryen before Aegon I. Variations of the sigil are known, e.g. a golden and a black dragon. In contrast to that house Velaryon and house Celtigar have different sigils not featuring a dragon, although they were from Valyria. 

The reader assumes the three heads of the dragon refer to Aegon and his sisters. But if the sigil is older, it may very well refer to a mystical creature like a Hydra. And that is my point, we do not know what Rhaegar means with the three heads and if he really means siblings.

Is Rhaegar really trying to recreate Aegon the conqueror, the assumed source of the sigil ? What is the point of that ? No, the sigil must be older and if connected to AA (as Rhaegar assumes), the meaning can be quite different than reenacting Aegon. 

So, is Rhaegar really believing he needs one more child ? Why him and not ... say Aerys II ? 

I'm wondering if the sigil is part of Daenys the Dreamers prophecy.  I'm wondering if that prophecy didn't include something like those I've seen in other mythological and biblical sources that establish a new house, new kingdom, promised land.  You know, 'and yea you will come to a land where dragons fight beneath the land, a white and a red, and where the defeated one dies is where you will establish your new kingdom".  I can't remember the particulars but it was something like that for when Merlin established Camelot, and then there's Moses and the Promised Land, and there's a lot of this kind of thing for great houses in France too.

So she warns about Valyria dying, but you have to wonder if she went further and said - okay don't laugh, I'm just imagining - "yea, and ye shall dwell on the island of stone dragons for nigh on a hundred years until you receive a sign (fill in blank). Then shall the Conqueror do whatever and whatever, and ye shall raise a new sigil of a dragon with three heads and plant it on the landing of the king between the seven hills, for it is the sign of your promise to your new land, that though there come a time when dragons have dwindled, and a Long Night looms, the Blood of the dragon will be reborn threefold, and a prince will lead them to keep the land safe from the powers of cold and darkness."

Dunno, but if it was a new sigil, it might have nothing to do with Aegon and sisters and everything to do with Dany, Jon, and (my bet) Tyrion.  The Targaryen promise to Westeros, in exchange for power, of protection.  The prince that was Promised.

Something like that lol.

[Lady Barbrey]

9 hours ago, SFDanny said:

@SFDanny

I'd really like to know where you've published your entire thoughts on the happenings behind Harrenhal and STAB, because we do agree in most places.  I read pieces of it in the last few pages but seem to have missed your full theory if it is on this thread. If you read my thread on the Ashara Dayne/Brandon Stark scenario above, for instance, you'll see we might have connected the dots differently, but we've interpreted the dots themselves very similarly at times.  And I'm wondering if your theory and mine don't gel well if we consider that there were two main drives behind the rose crown at Harrenhal, one in the interests of Arthur regarding his sister, the other in the interests of Rhaegar regarding the alliance. That when the two travelled to Harrenhal with Whent for Lyanna, for Arthur it was about stopping the wedding and forcing Brandon to marry Ashara, but for Rhaegar it was more about stopping the wedding and the Tully-Stark alliance.  So we've got two different purposes working in tandem.  I'll leave this for now because I want to ask a few questions below.

The leader of that political faction in attendance at the tourney was Brandon Stark, and his actions with the Lady Ashara Dayne, the companion to Princess Elia and sister to Rhaegar's closest friend, predate Rhaegar's naming Lyanna his queen of love and beauty. What we see is not a self-destructive act of a irrational lovestruck man, but a calculated political response to Brandon and the entire STAB bloc.

Why do you believe Brandon was the leader?  Because of his reaction to the crown? Because Rickard was (possibly) not there?

It is a consolidation of the Targaryens, temporarily, to have both father and son send the same message to the bloc - we will stop your alliance. We will not be removed. Aerys does it with Jaime's ceremony, and Rhaegar, after the rejection of his offer, does so in the same way his father did. He honors Lyanna with his garland of roses instead of a white cloak, but in so doing states categorically that he has an interest in the marriage between Robert and Lyanna not going forward and he will oppose it.

Okay, I absolutely agree the two actions are comparable and noted it myself. But why must this imply that Aerys and Rhaegar have temporarily joined together to send a message to the bloc? With Jaime's ceremony, the message is to Tywin.  With the blue rose crown, the message is to Brandon and possibly STAB.  Do you believe Tywin is part of the bloc?  Because I'm not so sure of that, I think he would be backing a Rhaegar Regency - what would he gain by an alliance with Stark Tully Arryn Baratheon? I also do not see Aerys in cahoots with Rhaegar.  My feeling was Rhaegar got the idea from his dad but the two incidents were perpetrated for different reasons.  You can see why I'd like your full theory so I can follow along with your reasoning.  Nice catch on the parallel, by the way, I haven't seen anyone else post on this.

That this political consolidation between father and son lasts a relative short time - likely ending in the moment Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna and doesn't bring her to Aerys - is another matter.

Was Aerys expecting her?!

The "kidnapping" is another event separated in months of time if not by much in place. I've already given you my thoughts on the reasons it takes place.

I'd like to read them so will go back to look.

I think Lyanna reaches out for help to get out of a marriage she wants no part of - see her remarks to Ned about Robert's nature - and Rhaegar has a choice to either ignore her plea or to help someone he both has feelings for and to which he has already publicly pledged his willingness to intervene in betrothal.

Why would Lyanna reach out to Rhaegar? I'm under the assumption there is no huge love between them yet - I thought you were too. You say he has already publicly pledged his willingness to intervene in her betrothal to Robert, yet no one else aside from Brandon seems to have read it that way.  Robert was inclined to be flattered and laugh it off. Ned was taken aback, but I imagine he recognized the symbolism of the blue rose crown and was startled and perplexed. Only Brandon was angry.  The crowd was surprised, but thought it flattering.

I don't think he can honorably refuse her.

Don't get it.  

One of the choices he doesn't have is to do as you say and have a very public wedding and force Rickard to accept it. The problem is he isn't king. Aerys is, and he guards his own rights very, very protectively. Rhaegar would have to ask for Aerys permission to marry Lyanna as a second wife if it is to be a public marriage, and the odds of the mad monarch approving his action are nil. Not only isn't this right to a second wife given to any Targaryen after Maegor, but this is the daughter of a man Aerys thinks is plotting to overthrow him - not without reason.

Absolutely agree.

At some point, I do think Rhaegar decides he wants to marry Lyanna and hopes to reveal the marriage as an already done thing, but that won't change Rickard's rejection of royal interference into his rights. Must it mean war?

So are you saying he decides to marry her before or after the supposed abduction? Because after, Rickard is dead very soon.  

I don't see the evidence for a Ned/Ashara relationship after Harrenhal or a connection of Ashara to Lyanna. It's pure speculation. As such, you're more than right to put it out for others, but I'm not in the least persuaded.

I agree.  Though I do think with Ashara at Starfall and her brother at the ToJ, there was opportunity for a Lyanna and Ashara friendship if either spent time at the respective locations.

 

 

 

[Seaserpent]

On 10/10/2018 at 10:31 AM, Lady Barbrey said:

Oh I see. These are details Barristan wouldn't have known at the time but was told later. Ashara was dishonoured at Harrenhal by Stark, had a stillborn child and killed herself over child or man. That's what he's heard. He wouldn't have known if it was before or after the crowning; anyone concerned would have had a vested interest in keeping it quiet. The only thing he might have seen for himself was Ashara's interest in 'Stark', and he might not have noticed till after the crowning.  Though I don't think he even noticed that.   Barristan also wouldn't have known she had a still born daughter or had killed herself unless someone told him.  So it's hearsay, that's why readers have uncertainty about it. I myself believe she was dishonoured by a Stark at Harrenhal and became pregnant (why make that stuff up?) but have wondered about Ashara's death and the still-born daughter, both of which might be a smokescreen.  But if there is a smokescreen, Barristan's not in on it, so he believes what he is saying.

I also think brandon is the best option for the dishonoring, cause ned is not like that and has a good relationship with barristan who finds him honorable! Benjen is way too young so i think brandon could be. 

[corbon]

On 10/10/2018 at 11:13 PM, Geddus said:

I had understood what you meant, it's me who wasn't clear: I am trying to do exacly what you're saying, it's just that I still haven't read any convincing explaination that makes Rhaegar's supposed actions smart or sane (in-story, not under our viewpoint). I had already read the post you mentioned but it, like every other theory, doesn't convince me at all.

I don't know, it seems like you're still not getting it. The point is, if you haven't read a convincing explanation that makes the actions smart or dutiful, but the character is known to be smart and dutiful, then perhaps its your understanding of the background that is flawed, not the explanations. The explanations don't make sense to you, not because they are flawed, but because you have assumptions that aren't necessarily correct.

Well, maybe, maybe not. Its just something to think about. Perhaps we'll get more info later that shows he was insane or gives a better explanation for you.

Anyway, I've probably belaboured this point far enough!

On 10/10/2018 at 11:13 PM, Geddus said:

About Brandon: the scenario where he stormed the Red Keep shouting for the prince's blood, which is prevalent here, actually doesn't make any sense. Brandon has been described as a hot-headed jerk at worst, not as a khornate berserker, he can't have remained blindingly furious the whole way from Riverrun to King's Landing (he and all his companions). I can believe he ended up screaming for Rhaegar to "come out and die" but I find it extremely unlikely that the whole thing started that way.

Also, everyone ignores Ned's memories of his brother which also don't fit with the "irresponsible dumbass" persona.

No one said "khornate beserker" or "remained blindingly furious over a multiday horse ride". And shouting isn't screaming.
Actually, side point (I guess I haven't belaboured the point enough!), this is a good example. You seem to be assuming Brandon was insane with fury. Thats only one possibility of the facts we have, and one that is basically a massive over-exaggeration. It might be worth re-examining that assumption and looking at the facts anew without it.
 

Quote

"He rode into the Red Keep with a few companions, shouting for Prince Rhaegar to come out and die".

That sounds to me like someone angry, but not necessarily incontinently so. Young, rash and foolish, and expecting his position and 'rightness' to protect him, rather.

That does fit with how Brandon as described. 
"the wild wolf"
more than a touch of the wolf blood, taking him to an early grave
Taking off his armour to duel Petyr B (gallant, but a bit arrogant and foolish, even if it worked out for him)
Strangling himself futilely trying to save his father (actually I could definitely give that a pass considering the alternatives)
his "mirths as wild as his rages"
a centaur (wild, half horse)
"never shy of taking what he wanted"
liking the sight of a noble maiden's virgin blood on his cock (very selfish and irresponsible, given he knows he can't marry her - and especially in light of his reactions about Lyanna and Rhaegar - its always the guilty ones that rage the fiercest!)
having to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar at Harrenhal (thats huge considering...)
 

Ned's memories of Brandon are partially coloured by a shy younger brother's admiration and love for a bold older brother who was better at everything.
But not that the more than a touch of wolf blood taking him to an early grave, is Ned's thought. So is the quote below, indicating some bitterness and what Brandon did to Ned (get himself killed and dump everything Brandon was born and trained to be on Ned's head, who didn't want it).

Quote

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth. "Brandon. Yes. Brandon would know what to do. He always did. It was all meant for Brandon. You, Winterfell, everything. He was born to be a King's Hand and a father to queens. I never asked for this cup to pass to me."

 

[Geddus]

17 hours ago, corbon said:

No one said "khornate beserker" or "remained blindingly furious over a multiday horse ride". And shouting isn't screaming.
Actually, side point (I guess I haven't belaboured the point enough!), this is a good example. You seem to be assuming Brandon was insane with fury. Thats only one possibility of the facts we have, and one that is basically a massive over-exaggeration. It might be worth re-examining that assumption and looking at the facts anew without it.

Of course it's an exaggeration, that was my point: it's unbelievable but it's required for the theory (which is not my theory by any means, I read it here more than once and I strongly disagree with it, to be clear) I was talking about to work. While the idea that Brandon entered the royal palace loudly proclaiming his intention to kill the crown prince seems unacceptable to me, I could easily believe that he started his audience or whatever it was the normal way, then for some reason lost his temper end ended up issuing his infamous challenge.

As for Rhaegar, I assure you I understand perfectly what you're saying. Since I'm curious, is there an explaination that you think makes sense for the prince's actions and doesn't require him to be an irresponsible fool?

Oh BTW, what's the difference between shouting and screaming? I thought they meant the same thing (English is not my first language, but I'm sure you could tell).

[Bael's Bastard]

2 hours ago, Geddus said:

Of course it's an exaggeration, that was my point: it's unbelievable but it's required for the theory (which is not my theory by any means, I read it here more than once and I strongly disagree with it, to be clear) I was talking about to work. While the idea that Brandon entered the royal palace loudly proclaiming his intention to kill the crown prince seems unacceptable to me, I could easily believe that he started his audience or whatever it was the normal way, then for some reason lost his temper end ended up issuing his infamous challenge.

Jaime claims that Brandon made his statement as he entered the Red Keep, and that Aerys sent guards to arrest him, which sounds as though he wasn't in Aerys's presence when he made his statement, let alone that he had been in an audience, or had started off an audience "the normal way," then lost his temper. Even if Brandon didn't maintain 110% pissed off the entire travel, there is nothing unrealistic about him being pissed and worked up as he was entering the Red Keep. Assuming for some reason he had chilled out a bit during the ride, his emotions easily could have risen back up in him as he was approaching and/or entering the Red Keep, where he was about to confront the royal family.

[corbon]

5 hours ago, Geddus said:

Of course it's an exaggeration, that was my point: it's unbelievable but it's required for the theory (which is not my theory by any means, I read it here more than once and I strongly disagree with it, to be clear) I was talking about to work. While the idea that Brandon entered the royal palace loudly proclaiming his intention to kill the crown prince seems unacceptable to me, I could easily believe that he started his audience or whatever it was the normal way, then for some reason lost his temper end ended up issuing his infamous challenge.

There we go again. We have a plain statement of fact, from more or less an eye witness, and rather than adjusting your understanding of what happened from an unbelievable exaggeration of the 'facts' presented, you simply find the facts as presented unbelievable.

There is nothing really unbelievable about a rash and angry (but not insanely enraged) Brandon riding into the Red Keep calling out for Rhaegar to "come out and die". He's rash and angry, sloppy in his language. He was almost certainly calling for a duel rather than murder. He's also already had to be held back to prevent him physically going after Rhaegar at Harrenhal.

Sorry, running out of time on the explanations thing.

Shouting is just loud. What you do when you want to be heard over a distance.
Screaming is less controlled, often out of control. What you do when you are enraged unable to control yourself.
Shouting when it is not required might be considered on the edges of uncontrolled, but its still not screaming.

[Geddus]

15 hours ago, corbon said:

There is nothing really unbelievable about a rash and angry (but not insanely enraged) Brandon riding into the Red Keep calling out for Rhaegar to "come out and die".

On the contrary I think there's plenty there that's unbelievable, in fact it all sounds ludicrous to me. To you it doesn't and that's more than fine, I just don't get why you have to ascribe my opinion to "not understanding".

[corbon]

4 hours ago, Geddus said:

On the contrary I think there's plenty there that's unbelievable, in fact it all sounds ludicrous to me. To you it doesn't and that's more than fine, I just don't get why you have to ascribe my opinion to "not understanding".

Thats pretty much the point.

Brandon riding in to the Red Keep and calling for Rhaegar to die is as near an established fact as any we don;t literally witness. Its a description of what happened by a virtual eye-witness, who doesn't seem to be particularly biased for or against any party, with no comparable alternative data point. Plus, its a data point with direct parallels elsewhere (Brandon having to be held back at Harrenhal).
If you "find it ludicrous", that suggests you should re-examine the assumptions you have that make you think its ludicrous. Because its clearly not presented as being ludicrous, so perhaps your thinking around it is flawed? Thats all I'm trying to say.

[Lord Varys]

On 10/16/2018 at 9:58 PM, corbon said:

Thats pretty much the point.

Brandon riding in to the Red Keep and calling for Rhaegar to die is as near an established fact as any we don;t literally witness. Its a description of what happened by a virtual eye-witness, who doesn't seem to be particularly biased for or against any party, with no comparable alternative data point. Plus, its a data point with direct parallels elsewhere (Brandon having to be held back at Harrenhal).
If you "find it ludicrous", that suggests you should re-examine the assumptions you have that make you think its ludicrous. Because its clearly not presented as being ludicrous, so perhaps your thinking around it is flawed? Thats all I'm trying to say.

It is still a paraphrase. It would still be correct regardless whether Brandon properly challenged Rhaegar to a duel or whether he just wanted to murder him. The former seems to be within the framework of the society they live in - duels are a thing, especially when women are involved - and Rhaegar is just a prince, not the king. Prince Daemon could also be challenged to a duel by Laena's betrothed - this wasn't 'treason' or a crime in and of itself.

Declaring you want to murder the Prince of Dragonstone would be an entirely different matter. In that case Aerys II would have been within in his right to seize, torture, and execute Brandon - perhaps along with his entire family.

But in a duel scenario he would have already crossed a pretty big line by seizing Brandon and his companions. A decision that still doesn't make much sense considering the easy and obvious way to deal with this Stark nonsense was to force Brandon to fight a man he could not possibly defeat. Barristan Selmy, say, or any other great KG that was in KL at this time. They could have fought as champion for Rhaegar.

[Geddus]

On 10/16/2018 at 9:58 PM, corbon said:

Thats pretty much the point.

Brandon riding in to the Red Keep and calling for Rhaegar to die is as near an established fact as any we don;t literally witness.

It's one line meant to summarize the situation, considering it a detailed description of the events is what I consider to be flawed reasoning. But hey, to each his own.

[corbon]

11 hours ago, Geddus said:

It's one line meant to summarize the situation, considering it a detailed description of the events is what I consider to be flawed reasoning. But hey, to each his own.

I don't think its a detailed description, but I also don't think we should assume its not generally accurate and there is a bunch of important other stuff not included within that summary. Nor that its is a "ludicrous" summary.
And I'll change that, if we get more evidence (I doubt we will, either way).

And yes, as you say, each to his own.

[J. Stargaryen]

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-significance-of-blue-winter-roses-in-connection-with-Lyanna-Stark/answer/Rose-G-Stone

This seems awfully familiar.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Because this topic (the timing of Rossart's appointment as Hand) has come up in this thread frequently during timeline discussions, I thought it would be useful to post this here.

 

On 10/30/2018 at 9:32 AM, Ran said:

That said, dug around more in the emails with Anne and George, and I see that we did in fact stick with Rossart being made Hand after the Trident... but it is not explcitly coupled with the date of Chelsted's death. That is, the solution we struck upon is that Chelsted was killed and for a period of time there was no Hand until the Trident, when Aerys appointed Rossart. Presumably this was part and parcel of Aerys's conflict with his son, that he refused to name him (perhaps he dangled it in front of him if he won against Robert) or anyone else, and only chose a Hand when Rhaegar was dead.

So I'm fairly comfortable with placing Chelsted's death just before Rhaegar rode to the Trident, with all the same arguments above, given that the only reason to believe it happened after is the natural but unsupported assumption that Rossart was appointed immediately after Chelsted.

 

[SFDanny]

12 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Because this topic (the timing of Rossart's appointment as Hand) has come up in this thread frequently during timeline discussions, I thought it would be useful to post this here.

Thank you RT! I've been arguing this topic with @Lord Varys for sometime. I think this settles the argument. Or it should.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, SFDanny said:

Thank you RT! I've been arguing this topic with @Lord Varys for sometime. I think this settles the argument. Or it should.

It may. As I lay out in the thread, I find this 'solution' creates another continuity error if Aerys just didn't name a new Hand immediately after Chelsted's resignation. Especially not the very guy he eventually named - the man dispatching Chelsted who also happened to be in charge of the wildfire projects Chelsted was opposed to.

Good solutions to such problems don't create new problems. And the weirdo fact of Aerys not naming a new Hand for a considerable time demands an explanation from the author. This not the kind of detail we can fill up with speculation - especially speculation about the Rhaegar-Aerys relationship (which should have more plot relevance as set up by George without serving as an explanation for the vacancy thing). If George ever puts this explanation into a future novel I'm most definitely demand an explanation for the vacancy (assuming he doesn't give one himself).

[Bael's Bastard]

Aerys not immediately naming a new Hand is not a continuity error, and there's nothing inherently problematic about it.