R+L=J v.165

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I know the World Book said near Harrenhal (10 leagues was it?). You said "at" so I was really just going with that. I know there's some speculation around that Lyanna remained at Harrenhal after the tourney. I thought you were alluding to that. My bad.

[Ygrain]

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

I think returning Lyanna to her family to protect her from Aerys would have been slightly more likely to gain said family's support than disappearing with her without explaination.

Except, this has never been stated anywhere. It is curious, though, that we never hear about Rickard enquiring where his daughter was, and what we do hear from Brandon, his main concern was offing the guy he had had beef with at HH, and again, no Lyanna. Therefore, with the lack of details, it can also be concluded that the Starks knew but Brandon, to his own detriment, went ballistic at the thought that someone might do with his sister what he had done with Barbrey Rhyswell.

[IceFire125]

I'm of the opinion that Littlefinger got a hold of a message from one of Lyanna's entourage saying that she left willingly with Prince Rhaegar and his Kingsguard (without stating she was running away from King Aerys' men).  He then manipulated the message that Lyanna was taken against her will by the Prince and set it up to where Brandon will receive it knowing how he will respond.

It almost sounds like Littlefinger does not want Brandon to be in Riverrun for his intended purpose... marrying the lady he fought for and paid for with scars.

[Geddus]

13 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Except, this has never been stated anywhere. It is curious, though, that we never hear about Rickard enquiring where his daughter was, and what we do hear from Brandon, his main concern was offing the guy he had had beef with at HH, and again, no Lyanna. Therefore, with the lack of details, it can also be concluded that the Starks knew but Brandon, to his own detriment, went ballistic at the thought that someone might do with his sister what he had done with Barbrey Rhyswell.

We don't know anything at all about Rickard's reaction; as for Brandon, we only have one sentence from Jaime while he's trying to bait Catelyn (and I, for one, really really doubt that Brandon entered the Red Keep shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die, I'm pretty sure there's more to that story). So it looks quite a leap to me to conclude that the Starks knew.

As for Littlefinger, he was 14 and either secluded at Riverrun while recovering from nearly dying or already going back to the Vale. Either way I don't think he had anything to do with what happened. Also, he doesn't have to be behind everything: he already caused one civil war, that's more than enough.

[Corvo the Crow]

Bran's observation on Jon

Quote

Jon's eyes were a grey so dark they seemed almostblack

Tyrion's knowledge on VS and his observation Widow's Wail and Oathkeeper.

Quote

Most Valyrian steel was a grey so dark it looked almost black, as was true here as well.

 

[corbon]

On 7/18/2018 at 6:28 AM, UnmaskedLurker said:

@Lord Varys

Hey LV -- it has been a while. I have stayed away from the boards, as they were getting tedious and repetitive. ...

In any event, in reading through some recent posts (got bored and decided to take a quick check-in peek at the boards),...

If anyone else wants to chime in on these alternative theories regarding the nature of the relationship between R&L when R went to KL and the likelihood of others knowing about L's pregnancy (or any other related issues) -- feel free (this is a public board, after all).

Hey, old friend!
Me too.
Me too.
at the bottom...

On 7/18/2018 at 12:15 PM, Lord Varys said:

What can I say? Aren't my postings already far too long and tedious to read through?

Haha, old fr-enemy, I think mine used to be even worse. (OTOH, at a certain point it does become a weeding mechanism to reach the people who are invested enough and know the material well enough to have really interesting thoughts.) Heck, looking further down, even my shortcut version probably still is worse!
In fact I started here, after mucking around to find old logins etc, with quoting 19 posts since UL chimed in to discuss, rebut, agree with - then realized it would be just as long and tedious, and nothing but rehashing old arguments anyway. Exactly why I drifted off.

So I'll just lay out a few things without direct quotes at the bottom

On 7/22/2018 at 9:11 AM, Ygrain said:

Might have been very probably, IMHO.

Hi to another very old friend!
A few other very familiar names too I see.

On 7/25/2018 at 3:16 AM, Geddus said:

The World Book says Rhaegar "fell on" Lyanna near Harrenhal.

I think returning Lyanna to her family to protect her from Aerys would have been slightly more likely to gain said family's support than disappearing with her without explaination.

Remember that the world book was written expressly for Robert (and his heirs). Those events that he is particularly invested in are told, in the world book, basically from his point of view, as opposed to a factual one.

As Ygraine said, there's no active evidence that there was no explanation to her family, and circumstantial evidence that there was an explanation of some sort.
Rickard makes no mention of her that we know of at any time after the abduction - with plenty of opportunity, and in public too. Its almost as if he knows something...
Brandon definitely knows something, though its impossible to tell what. He knows enough to ride to KL with a beef against Rhaegar (who defeated him in the tourney at Harrenhal remember). How did he now that? Did Rhaegar send him an arrogant message? Was there a witness? Was there an explaining message that Brandon didn't like or didn't believe? We don't know. 

But its pretty clear that the Starks knew something. They must, for Brandon to ride to KL. And Rickard not mentioning Lyanna's abduction when he got to court strongly suggests he knew something already.
As to whether Brandon rode to the Red Keep and shouted for Rhaegar to come out and die, what reason would Jaime have to lie about that? He was there. And nothing we hear of Brandon's history or character precludes such as action.  

In general I think that people here still haven't taken the lessons from the books about information flow and communications to heart and assume that characters know vastly more than they did about what has happened in the recent past.
This applies to all aspects.
 - The 'abduction'. Who would or could know what, and how quickly? It wouldn't be difficult (especially with Lyanna's agreement) to do this entirely secretly - ie leave no one but the direct participants with any knowledge at all except that she's gone missing, and possibly any attendants (if there were any - she use to ride alone often) were dead. I'm not saying that this did happen, only that it might have and fits with everything we know. Then the only people who know anything are those that Lyanna/Rhaegar contact (Rickard/Brandon).
 - Keeping up with the rest of the world. If Rhaegar, Lyanna and his companions are travelling in secrecy, where and when are they going to hear about what is happening in KL to Brandon and Rickard. They probably expect to be in opposition with Aerys, yet not want to be in open disobedience/Rebellion so travelling incognito (similar to what Cat did on her trip to KL) and not staying with nobles/alerting people to their presence is a likelihood. So they are hearing tavern gossip at best, nothing at all at worst. Tavern gossip is likely to be months (certainly weeks, possibly years) behind the times, not to mention garbled and inaccurate as often as not.
LV tends to dismiss this sort of thing, but I see it as entirely feasible, nay likely that they have little or no contact with the outside world (other than out of date tavern gossip at best) for several months as they travel and hide, and when they do get caught up its almost certainly too late to do anything productive with either Loyalists or rebels.
 - The ToJ. As I recall the ToJ is not "in the desert". Its near the dornish end of a long pass between Dorne and the Reach - rocky foothills sort of land (not all Dorne is desert). The pass is not often used, being more difficult than alternative routes, and as such it would not be difficult to supply in secret. I think (no longer have all the sources at hand to check, sorry) the Tower had fallen into disuse over last century or so since the Reach and Dorne had been at peace in the same kingdom. I know the show is not a serious resource, but the depiction in the show closely matched my thoughts on it. If its set back overlooking the main route through the pass, but has been abandoned and is not visited by travelers through the pass, it would be a perfect hiding spot. And completely out of contact. A supply and communications line might be maintained through Arthur's connection to Starfall, for example, but that would take weeks or months (Starfall is not that close) to get information (which explains why Rhaegar initially can't be found by Aerys' court, but Hightower eventually finds him and convinces him to come back).
The example of Dunk and Egg knowing about Daeron II's death and other things - they were over a decade in the past, and its Egg's own personal family history! I think a better example is that Prince Aegon (Egg) is missing from his father's seat in Summerhall for a year or two and virtually no one in the realm even knows!
Yes, news does get around, but it takes a long time unless you are part of the raven network (which ToJ certainly is not, and travelers hiding afrom the King are not), and its often garbled and inaccurate.

 

As to Lyanna and the war - I don't think she was significant to the war at all, basically, and from such deep fundamentals, major differences of opinion grow, so that almost everything LV says, I find myself in fundamental disagreement with, even though I respect his intellect and knowledge.

I'm of the opinion that the war was primarily about the Madness of Aerys.
Brandon was a fool (Hoster Tully's words IIRC) riding to KL and openly and publicly committing crimes punishable by death, but Aerys went waaay too far in response. Executing all of his companions, and eventually Brandon too, was very harsh, but he could probably have gotten away with that. But what he did to Rickard put every noble in the seven kingdoms on notice that they, and their lines, lived or died at Aerys' mad whim. Demanding Ned and Robert's heads as well went even further, and basically gave them no choice but to rebel. Robert can claim all he likes that it was all about Lyanna, and by the end in his own fantasy world (personal narrative) it probably was, but his words and deeds before and after tell the real story. Rickard (nor Ned or John Arryn) didn't even appear to bring her situation up (as far as we know).
With that as a background, I can't see Lyanna having any real potential for influencing the war by the time it has started. Its too late, and whats been done can't be undone and is more consequential than she is.

Nor can I see her attitude to Rhaegar changing suddenly due to news of what everyone else has been doing and done. The world has gone mad (on both sides if they originally sent explanation to Rickard/Brandon) and LV's thinking that that would change her relationship with Rhaegar makes no sense to me at all. She's been living with him "in love" for months by then, probably already pregnant, and I cant see her blaming him for the madness of everyone else. Pain, disagreements about what they should do now, fights even, yes, but not to the point of her now being a prisoner instead of a wife/lover.

The very rough, very flexible (I agree with LV on one thing, we really know very little about these times) timeline/thought process I believe in (until more evidence is published and or better arguments are made) is roughly this (and bear in mind that I may misremember some details after over a year away, several years since regular contributions, for which I apologize):

1. "Abduction" - consensual on Lyanna's part. R/L 'party' go into hiding/travelling incognito as much or even entirely to avoid direct confrontation with Aerys more/rather than with the Starks.
1a. Messages are sent by R/L to Rickard and/or Brandon. We don't know what it/they say. I suspect (have no evidence other than what little we know of actions and reactions) that they satisfied (up to a point) Rickard, but not Brandon, who may have already had a beef with Rhaegar over events at the Harrenhal tourney.
2. Brandon misunderstand/misinterprets, is misdirected or just doesn't like the message. He acts by going to KL
3. KL events including Rickard's death and Aerys demanding the heads of Ned/Robert
3a. R/L party still travelling/hiding, no comms in, possibly comms out with Ravens, most likely to Ashara at Starfall.
4. John Arryn, Ned, Robert rebel rather than hand over heads. Early battles in the Vale, then Reach. Ned heads north to gather Stark forces including the fisherman's daughter thing along the way.
5. Robert is forced north by Tarly. Aerys decides Merryweather is too ineffectual and replaces him with Connington since Rhaegar still cannot be found.
6. Connington loses to the rebels. Aerys realizes that this is serious, sends Hightower to find Rhaegar, the only option he has left as a field commander.
The war seems to stall for months here as it was most of a year long and 4-5 happens within a month or two, 6 harder to tell, but still in the early phase. Possibly its winter (as opposed to Winter) and there are poor campaigning weather/options for the rebels, or possibly they are waiting for/training their full forces, rather than the 'grab-what-you-can-quickly' forces of the first few months. Most likely GRRM just left space because he needed it and didn't intend timelines to be parsed closely. At some stage during this time or just before, R/L party holes up at ToJ. It may not be the first place they holed up at for a time.
7. Hightower find Rhaegar, who returns to KL take command to the loyalist army. Rhaegar possibly talks to the prisoner Ethan Glover about Lyanna. Barristan learns that Rhaegar loves Lyanna.
Some time between 3 and 7, possibly as late as Hightower's arrival, R/L get updates on the war. Its not until 6 though, really Hightower actually finding him (7), that Rhaegar could be sure its safe (and useful) to come back, even for him.
Now we also have an unknown period - days, weeks or months, its not clear, with Rhaegar at KL in command of the Royalist forces as they are reconstituted/regathered/trained before he can lead them to the Trident.
8. The Battle of the Trident and its aftermath at KL happen.
9. Robert is crowned, word is sent everywhere by raven as to the deaths of the Targaryens and the crowning of Robert.
9a. Ned talks to Ethan Glover, possibly learns a lot he didn't know before. Ned rides south to end the war then further south with Ethan and his other close companions.
10. ToJ receives word, perhaps via Ashara at Starfall of 8/9 (the KG talking to Ned know about the Trident and aftermath). Lyanna is too pregnant/birthed-but-too-sick-to-travel. Starfall has at some stage found Lyanna a wet nurse, Wylla.
11. Ned turns up at ToJ.
12. Ned takes Dawn, Jon and Wylla to Starfall, Ashara commits/fakes suicide.
13. Ned takes Jon/Wylla home.
14. When Wylla is no longer needed as a wetnurse, she returns to Starfall where she later does the same job for Ned Dayne

The way I see it, any time after 3, its really too late for either Rhaegar or Lyanna to do anything about the war, without basically giving up each other and the end of the Targaryens entirely (Aerys has to end for Ned and Robert to live, he won't back down under any circumstances, and Robert, now that he's actually at war, will be so aggrieved at Lyanna's supposed fate, he's not going to back off Rhaegar either (Robert's narrative is fixed by now)).

BTW, lots of these idea can have large or small deviations without a significant change to the narrative. For example, whether R/L party had support from Ashara or not, or how Wylla fits, or the precise interactions between Rhaegar and Aerys or Rhaegar and Hightower.

Sheesh, wasn't that long and tedious!

[Geddus]

5 hours ago, corbon said:

But its pretty clear that the Starks knew something. They must, for Brandon to ride to KL. And Rickard not mentioning Lyanna's abduction when he got to court strongly suggests he knew something already.
As to whether Brandon rode to the Red Keep and shouted for Rhaegar to come out and die, what reason would Jaime have to lie about that? He was there. And nothing we hear of Brandon's history or character precludes such as action.  

We don't know anything about what Rickard did or didn't do other than he went to court and asked for a trial by combat, how can you conclude he didn't say anything about his daughter? And even if he didn't, I think at that time he had more pressing matters, llke being accused of treason along with his son.

 

I didn't say that Jaime lied, I said that there's more to that story: it's not like he was giving an accurate account of the events, it was a throwaway line meant to anger Catelyn.

I don't believe Brandon remained unreasonably angry for all the time (days? Weeks?) it took him to travel from Riverrun to King's Landing and entered the Red Keep calling for the Crown Prince's blood, it would be ridiculous.  He was hot-tempered, sure, but that's something not even Gregor Clegane would do. Maybe he did talk to the King, or tried to, was provoked / mocked / whatever, lost his temper and then launched his challenge to Rhaegar, for example.

As to how Brandon learnt about his sister's disappearance: we don't know. I think a reasonable assumption would be that Lyanna had an escort, who would have reported being forced by the Crown Prince to give their charge up. There's no need for conspiracies.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, corbon said:

Remember that the world book was written expressly for Robert (and his heirs). Those events that he is particularly invested in are told, in the world book, basically from his point of view, as opposed to a factual one.

That is too twisted a view of the book. Yandel does not lie, he just doesn't include the Tywin theory in relation to the fate of Elia's children. And he sure as hell sucks up to King Robert and plays up his claim to the throne, etc. But there is no indication that he twisted around the events leading up the Rebellion, say. Even his portrayal of Aerys II and his reign seems to be not so biased. Yes, Pycelle is a major source and thus Tywin is portrayed as a really great guy, but Tywin simply was a great Hand. Even his enemies admit that.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

As Ygraine said, there's no active evidence that there was no explanation to her family, and circumstantial evidence that there was an explanation of some sort.
Rickard makes no mention of her that we know of at any time after the abduction - with plenty of opportunity, and in public too. Its almost as if he knows something...
Brandon definitely knows something, though its impossible to tell what. He knows enough to ride to KL with a beef against Rhaegar (who defeated him in the tourney at Harrenhal remember). How did he now that? Did Rhaegar send him an arrogant message? Was there a witness? Was there an explaining message that Brandon didn't like or didn't believe? We don't know. 

The evidence we do have implies that the Starks as such opposed whatever Rhaegar/Lyanna did. There is no indication of a rift within the family - especially since Brandon would have been Rickard's major source on all things related to Lyanna and Rhaegar at Harrenhal (assuming Rickard wasn't there himself).

It might be that Rickard would have been more, well, cautious when learning about the abduction but there is no indication that he approved of that. The reason why he went into the dragon's mouth as willingly as he did may have been that he actually thought he and his son where not only in the right but had also nothing to fear - because they were not working with Rhaegar nor plotting against the king.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

But its pretty clear that the Starks knew something. They must, for Brandon to ride to KL. And Rickard not mentioning Lyanna's abduction when he got to court strongly suggests he knew something already.
As to whether Brandon rode to the Red Keep and shouted for Rhaegar to come out and die, what reason would Jaime have to lie about that? He was there. And nothing we hear of Brandon's history or character precludes such as action.  

We have no idea at this point what Lord Rickard said or did at court. Nor do we know what he and Brandon and all the others were accused of. Brandon challenging Rhaegar to a duel doesn't mean King Aerys also used that as a pretext to accuse them all of treason. Nobles do have a right to demand satisfaction when they and their honor is offended.

And at this point Aerys had no reason at all to side with Rhaegar against the Starks when he and his people just thought Rhaegar and the Starks were plotting against him.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

LV tends to dismiss this sort of thing, but I see it as entirely feasible, nay likely that they have little or no contact with the outside world (other than out of date tavern gossip at best) for several months as they travel and hide, and when they do get caught up its almost certainly too late to do anything productive with either Loyalists or rebels.

I suggest you actually turn to the sections of the books and novellas (Dunk & Egg has a lot of rumor-spreading, too) like the spreading of the news of the Red Wedding, the death of King Joffrey, King Robert, the downfall of Ned Stark, etc. and then you think again how quickly the news about Brandon and Rickard and the beginning of the subsequent war would have spread.

I'm not saying Rhaegar and Lyanna must have gotten information quickly (although they might have if they were staying with nobles/at castles in the beginning (which might have been the case) but it is ridiculous Rhaegar learned only about the war from, say, Hightower, or that they would deliberately not want to know stuff. That's just completely unrealistic.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

 - The ToJ. As I recall the ToJ is not "in the desert". Its near the dornish end of a long pass between Dorne and the Reach - rocky foothills sort of land (not all Dorne is desert). The pass is not often used, being more difficult than alternative routes, and as such it would not be difficult to supply in secret. I think (no longer have all the sources at hand to check, sorry) the Tower had fallen into disuse over last century or so since the Reach and Dorne had been at peace in the same kingdom. I know the show is not a serious resource, but the depiction in the show closely matched my thoughts on it. If its set back overlooking the main route through the pass, but has been abandoned and is not visited by travelers through the pass, it would be a perfect hiding spot. And completely out of contact. A supply and communications line might be maintained through Arthur's connection to Starfall, for example, but that would take weeks or months (Starfall is not that close) to get information (which explains why Rhaegar initially can't be found by Aerys' court, but Hightower eventually finds him and convinces him to come back).

The tower is at the Prince's Pass, the major trade route to and from Dorne. Starfall is very far away, and it makes no sense that they would get supplies from there. If they stayed there longer they would have gotten supplies from the people living in the mountains - which are not, as far as we know, empty.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

The example of Dunk and Egg knowing about Daeron II's death and other things - they were over a decade in the past, and its Egg's own personal family history! I think a better example is that Prince Aegon (Egg) is missing from his father's seat in Summerhall for a year or two and virtually no one in the realm even knows!
Yes, news does get around, but it takes a long time unless you are part of the raven network (which ToJ certainly is not, and travelers hiding afrom the King are not), and its often garbled and inaccurate.

The deaths of the Lord Stark and his heir and many other notables as well as the beginning of a war are as important news as the death of a king. And it is not that Dunk & Egg run around asking about Targaryen gossip. In fact, Dunk tries to avoid talk like that because Egg can't hold his tongue. Yet they are still constantly 'informed' about things like that. 

14 hours ago, corbon said:

As to Lyanna and the war - I don't think she was significant to the war at all, basically, and from such deep fundamentals, major differences of opinion grow, so that almost everything LV says, I find myself in fundamental disagreement with, even though I respect his intellect and knowledge.

Well, I think you should think a little bit more about Lyanna and her character. If Lyanna didn't care about the war then Arya doesn't care about her family and revenge right now. Lyanna is a dialed-up version of Arya. A young princess who always got what she wanted, even when her father didn't indulge her in her interests (like learning to fight).

14 hours ago, corbon said:

I'm of the opinion that the war was primarily about the Madness of Aerys.
Brandon was a fool (Hoster Tully's words IIRC) riding to KL and openly and publicly committing crimes punishable by death, but Aerys went waaay too far in response. Executing all of his companions, and eventually Brandon too, was very harsh, but he could probably have gotten away with that. But what he did to Rickard put every noble in the seven kingdoms on notice that they, and their lines, lived or died at Aerys' mad whim. Demanding Ned and Robert's heads as well went even further, and basically gave them no choice but to rebel. Robert can claim all he likes that it was all about Lyanna, and by the end in his own fantasy world (personal narrative) it probably was, but his words and deeds before and after tell the real story. Rickard (nor Ned or John Arryn) didn't even appear to bring her situation up (as far as we know).
With that as a background, I can't see Lyanna having any real potential for influencing the war by the time it has started. Its too late, and whats been done can't be undone and is more consequential than she is.

Aerys' madness didn't cause a mass rebellion though. And what allowed it to spread was the sloppy response of the loyalists, not the fact that the lords didn't want to stay loyal to their king. Especially Hoster joined the fray very late, and half his lords stayed true to their king.

And especially the leader and figurehead of the Rebellion, Robert, had much more issues with Rhaegar than with Aerys. He wanted Lyanna back most of all, not depose the madman. He also had issues with him, of course, but Rhaegar is the reason why Robert hates House Targaryen, not Aerys. Aerys is just an afterthought for him.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

Nor can I see her attitude to Rhaegar changing suddenly due to news of what everyone else has been doing and done. The world has gone mad (on both sides if they originally sent explanation to Rickard/Brandon) and LV's thinking that that would change her relationship with Rhaegar makes no sense to me at all. She's been living with him "in love" for months by then, probably already pregnant, and I cant see her blaming him for the madness of everyone else. Pain, disagreements about what they should do now, fights even, yes, but not to the point of her now being a prisoner instead of a wife/lover.

That is too much speculation. We have no reason to believe Lyanna had been living 'months' with Rhaegar when she learned about her father and brother - but even if I gave you that point for the sake of argument, she is still not likely to shout 'Goooooo, Rhaegar!' when the man decided to defend the madman who killed her father and brother, leading an army in the madman's name against her other brother.

The idea that a woman like Lyanna would be okay with that kind of thing, that Rhaegar's powerful semen being pumped in Lyanna daily and his indigo eyes and silver-gold hair were such powerful magics that she would love him no matter what he did is not very likely.

I mean, Arya is drawn to Gendry in a sense, but she is not permitting him to get away with nonsense. Why should we believe Lyanna would allow Rhaegar things like that? Because he melancholic super man prince?

14 hours ago, corbon said:

1. "Abduction" - consensual on Lyanna's part. R/L 'party' go into hiding/travelling incognito as much or even entirely to avoid direct confrontation with Aerys more/rather than with the Starks.

We don't know whether it was consensual or not. I don't care all that much, actually. No point in speculating about such details at this point. I'd like to think Lyanna and Rhaegar were both actually in love prior to 'the abduction' but even that's not confirmed at this point. Me wanting this to be true doesn't make it so, though.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

1a. Messages are sent by R/L to Rickard and/or Brandon. We don't know what it/they say. I suspect (have no evidence other than what little we know of actions and reactions) that they satisfied (up to a point) Rickard, but not Brandon, who may have already had a beef with Rhaegar over events at the Harrenhal tourney.

I think here could already confusion set in. There may have been witnesses to the abduction who then informed Rickard and Brandon (or they received even third-hand reports). 

The idea that Rhaegar/Lyanna sent messages to Rickard and Brandon is unfounded at this point. They could not have sent ravens because we know that at least Brandon was already on the road on the way to Riverrun (and Rickard, too, most likely).

14 hours ago, corbon said:

3a. R/L party still travelling/hiding, no comms in, possibly comms out with Ravens, most likely to Ashara at Starfall.

No evidence for that. We don't know where they went, we don't know where they were.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

6. Connington loses to the rebels. Aerys realizes that this is serious, sends Hightower to find Rhaegar, the only option he has left as a field commander.

That is not Aerys' only option, and there is no way he would have ever had that impression. Gerold Hightower won the War of the Ninepenny Kings for House Targaryen. Aerys, the Prince of Dragonstone, was with the army on the Stepstones, but did not command the troops.

Why shouldn't Aerys II give Hightower command over another Targaryen host against Robert? Why should Rhaegar be his only option? Rhaegar was in his early twenties, and had never fought in a war nor commanded a large host. 

In fact, perhaps it would have been smarter to give command to Hightower and make Rhaegar just a figurehead like Aerys had been on the Stepstones.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

7. Hightower find Rhaegar, who returns to KL take command to the loyalist army. Rhaegar possibly talks to the prisoner Ethan Glover about Lyanna. Barristan learns that Rhaegar loves Lyanna.

Or not, to the Glover part. That is one of the more outlandish theories I read here. Especially since there are countless other, much more reasonable possibilities as to how Ned may have learned about Lyanna's location.

Glover certainly would play a role to give Ned a good picture as to about why and how his brother and father died, though.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

Now we also have an unknown period - days, weeks or months, its not clear, with Rhaegar at KL in command of the Royalist forces as they are reconstituted/regathered/trained before he can lead them to the Trident.

It is months because we know Rhaegar raises and trains new troops. You don't do that in a few weeks.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

9a. Ned talks to Ethan Glover, possibly learns a lot he didn't know before. Ned rides south to end the war then further south with Ethan and his other close companions.

Since we don't know Glover was a prisoner in KL for the entire war this is also a pretty big stretch. Could be. Or not. We don't know what Glover did. Ned could also have talked to Richard Lonmouth after the Trident, say. Who may have been with Rhaegar when Hightower found him and who may have returned with Rhaegar to KL and may have ridden with him to the Trident.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

10. ToJ receives word, perhaps via Ashara at Starfall of 8/9 (the KG talking to Ned know about the Trident and aftermath). Lyanna is too pregnant/birthed-but-too-sick-to-travel. Starfall has at some stage found Lyanna a wet nurse, Wylla.

It is pretty likely they may have heard about the Trident and Robert's rise - of the fate of Rhaegar's children, Viserys' escape, etc. not so much. Those things wouldn't have been as important - nor would anyone in Robert's camp allow such rumors to spread. 

14 hours ago, corbon said:

The way I see it, any time after 3, its really too late for either Rhaegar or Lyanna to do anything about the war, without basically giving up each other and the end of the Targaryens entirely (Aerys has to end for Ned and Robert to live, he won't back down under any circumstances, and Robert, now that he's actually at war, will be so aggrieved at Lyanna's supposed fate, he's not going to back off Rhaegar either (Robert's narrative is fixed by now)).

You may right in the assessment that their efforts (if made) would have been in vain - but that's not the issue. The issue is that Lyanna apparently never even tried. And I find that makes little to no sense from her POV. Neither makes it sense to keep the pregnant woman you love in some tower in the middle of nowhere when you are a prince. There is no reason for us to pretend we can properly assess this situation with the incomplete knowledge we have. It is no smart approach to pretend just because we have limited knowledge means we have all the knowledge we need to know to make a good/complete theory on events we have only incomplete knowledge about.

You are arguing from hindsight, with what you know (or believe to know) about the war and its causes. But the people living in the period wouldn't have known all that.

[Alia of the knife]

On 7/21/2018 at 5:11 PM, Ygrain said:

Might have been very probably, IMHO.

[UnmaskedLurker]

@corbon

Hope you are doing well. Been quite a while. Nice to see that you check in every once in a while as well. I don't have much to add these days, so don't come around all the time, but checking in from time to time can be enjoyable. As to your analysis, while I see some valid points from LV, I tend to lean in favor of your assessment. But I admit that so much is left open, that LV might be more right than we think he is.

@Lord Varys

I don't really have much to add to what I have already said, other than one point you raise again. Namely, you doubt that Starfall would have been the main source of supplies. I agree that Starfall is not that close to ToJ (maybe 100-200 miles away), but as you acknowledged, ToJ is close to the trade route between Dorne and Reach. Supplies are not needed that often -- so it would not be difficult to imagine that there was a regular place to stop off near ToJ on the way from Starfall to Reach -- one of the members of the trade group splits off for a short time to deliver supplies to ToJ and then goes back to the main group to continue on to Reach. The regular intervals between trade missions is probably about the right amount of time between needed supply runs to ToJ.

ToJ needed a reliable source that minimized risk of leaks. Going into town occasionally for certain items, like bread and produce, might make sense. But general supplies -- and reliable information updates -- probably need to come from an "inside" source, like Starfall. The appearance of Wylla at ToJ is a considerable clue (IMHO). I also find it too coincidental that Starfall is just about the right distance so that it is far enough that people at Starfall who might be a problem are unlikely to know about people being at ToJ, while still close enough -- and on the trade route -- so that is can be a source of general supplies and information.

Of course, in the overall analysis, whether ToJ gets supplies from Starfall or closer sources really is not important and does not really change the story in any way that should matter to readers (other details about what exactly happened between R&L are much more interesting and relevant to the overall story). I just am not sure why you keep repeating, with such assurance, that Starfall could not be the main source of supplies to ToJ.

[Lord Varys]

On 8/1/2018 at 4:23 PM, UnmaskedLurker said:

I don't really have much to add to what I have already said, other than one point you raise again. Namely, you doubt that Starfall would have been the main source of supplies. I agree that Starfall is not that close to ToJ (maybe 100-200 miles away), but as you acknowledged, ToJ is close to the trade route between Dorne and Reach. Supplies are not needed that often -- so it would not be difficult to imagine that there was a regular place to stop off near ToJ on the way from Starfall to Reach -- one of the members of the trade group splits off for a short time to deliver supplies to ToJ and then goes back to the main group to continue on to Reach. The regular intervals between trade missions is probably about the right amount of time between needed supply runs to ToJ.

Well, you can't store all that much in a watchtower. And we don't know how many people there were at that place when most people were there.

A Starfall setting is just overly complicated and serves no narrative purpose. They could get supplies in any nearby village or other trading post. All the KG would need to do is to not show up there in their white cloaks and armor.

This doesn't mean Rhaegar/Lyanna and later the KG in the tower might not have been sent word to Starfall in some way, but there is no reason to assume they received provisions from there.

I mean - hell, if the Daynes were helping them, why on earth didn't they hide in some tower/keep in the lands of the Daynes?

This is not a question whether this is possible or not - I mean, it is also possible that Doran Martell and Benjen Stark personally send wagons of food to the tower. It is just not very likely.

Quote

ToJ needed a reliable source that minimized risk of leaks. Going into town occasionally for certain items, like bread and produce, might make sense. But general supplies -- and reliable information updates -- probably need to come from an "inside" source, like Starfall. The appearance of Wylla at ToJ is a considerable clue (IMHO). I also find it too coincidental that Starfall is just about the right distance so that it is far enough that people at Starfall who might be a problem are unlikely to know about people being at ToJ, while still close enough -- and on the trade route -- so that is can be a source of general supplies and information.

But we have no reason to assume they got any 'inside information'. If we had reason to think they had such information it would make sense to speculate how they got it - but we don't have any reason for such speculation.

But even there it would more likely that they would have heard about rumors and news from the castles closest to the tower than from Starfall.

[Ygrain]

On 7/26/2018 at 9:57 AM, Geddus said:

We don't know anything about what Rickard did or didn't do other than he went to court and asked for a trial by combat, how can you conclude he didn't say anything about his daughter? And even if he didn't, I think at that time he had more pressing matters, llke being accused of treason along with his son.

Well, one would think that Lyanna's abduction, since it was supposedly the reason why Brandon did what he did, might at least get a honorable mention.

Besides, note how Cat says that "Brandon heard about Lyanna", but doesn't specify what it was he heard.

On 7/26/2018 at 9:57 AM, Geddus said:

I didn't say that Jaime lied, I said that there's more to that story: it's not like he was giving an accurate account of the events, it was a throwaway line meant to anger Catelyn.

There's definitely more to the story, I agree, but Catelyn doesn't seem angered or surprised by the line, she merely carries on. 

On 7/26/2018 at 9:57 AM, Geddus said:

I don't believe Brandon remained unreasonably angry for all the time (days? Weeks?) it took him to travel from Riverrun to King's Landing and entered the Red Keep calling for the Crown Prince's blood, it would be ridiculous.  He was hot-tempered, sure, but that's something not even Gregor Clegane would do. Maybe he did talk to the King, or tried to, was provoked / mocked / whatever, lost his temper and then launched his challenge to Rhaegar, for example.

"It was a rash thing to do.” She remembered how her own father had raged when the news had been brought to Riverrun. The gallant fool, was what he called Brandon.

Your beliefs seem to clash with the characters' assessment of Brandon's action, and you are forgetting that Brandon is the guy who nearly came to blows with Rhaegar over Lyanna's crowning as a stain on her honour. Her abduction/elopement, which practically meant sex with Rhaegar, was a far worse "offence", and Brandon wouldn't need to be unreasonably angry to want to avenge it.

There is also the matter of the curious word choice in Hoster's reaction - was "gallant" meant as "brave", or as "chivalrous"?

 

On 7/26/2018 at 9:57 AM, Geddus said:

As to how Brandon learnt about his sister's disappearance: we don't know. I think a reasonable assumption would be that Lyanna had an escort, who would have reported being forced by the Crown Prince to give their charge up. There's no need for conspiracies.

There's the need for an explanation why Brandon went to look for Rhaegar in KL when Rhaegar wasn't there. It was hardly a secret that Rhaegar's seat was Dragonstone and that he and Aerys were not on best terms.

[Ygrain]

@corbon !

@Alia of the knife !

@UnmaskedLurker !

So good to see you!

[UnmaskedLurker]

@Ygrain

Thanks for the "shout out" (nice to know some people still remember me around here). Always good to see you as well. Keep up the good work on this board (as I have indicated, I am a bit worn out from the same issues being raised over and over again, and so only check in occasionally -- if only book 6 would come out already).

[corbon]

On 8/3/2018 at 6:57 PM, Ygrain said:

@corbon !

@Alia of the knife !

@UnmaskedLurker !

So good to see you!

Cheers, and to UL.

Sort of feels sad to just disappear again, but no way I'm going to get caught up in the same old same old rebuttals and counterarguments.

 

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Sort of feels sad to just disappear again, but no way I'm going to get caught up in the same old same old rebuttals and counterarguments.

Well, yeah. It's not like the discussions are flowing like in the olden days.

[Lost Melnibonean]

12 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Well, yeah. It's not like the discussions are flowing like in the olden days.

You can say that again. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 12/13/2017 at 6:23 PM, Ygrain said:

Is there a list of all R+L=J clues that have been found?

There is a list of R+L=J hints, clues and foreshadowing compiled by sj4iy.

This link no longer works, so I would suggest it to either be updated, or removed from the OP.

[Ygrain]

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

This link no longer works, so I would suggest it to either be updated, or removed from the OP.

Ah. That would be due to the forum archivation? How do I update it?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

44 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Ah. That would be due to the forum archivation? How do I update it?

According to  dropbox, the file no langer exists. Perhaps it was renamed, causing the url to change. Or perhaps it was removed. @sj4iy should know/be able to find out, I suppose, as the original creator of the file.

As long as no one can provide a correct link, the least that can be done is put in brackets behind the link that it is currently inactive.