What will happen in Vale [TWOW spoliers]

[cpg2016]

2 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Yes and Littlefinger abuses that. It is hard to cover up social climbing and ambition.

Yeah but there is a difference between getting named Lord of Harrenhal and then leveraging that into a marriage with one of the most eligible women in the Seven Kingdoms, and doing all that while simultaneously making crude jokes about her!  That is my point.  Littlefinger has few options to advance himself socially, and that he does so in ways that the traditional nobility find distasteful isn't totally his fault.  But throughout the process he is as obnoxious as possible, and rubs his newfound success in everyone's face, in the worst possible way.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/15/2017 at 6:56 AM, Tygett Lannister said:

Contains TWOW spoilers!

For me the most interesting part of the story is happening in Vale right now. So my question is what do you think will happen at the tournament and where is the story going later on?There seems to be a political fight between Littlefinger's party, Lords Declarant and maybe Nestor Royce. Lords Declarant have signed a treaty with LF that he can keep his regency for a year and that they will see after that.

Spoiler

 

Lord Grafton claims that Vale Lords are eager to sell food to merchants who are offering them good deals:

LF is aware winter is coming and that prices of food will get increasingly higher so they need to prevent selling food and even block ships that might be transporting food out of Vale.

 

I think Vale lord's are also aware of this but a lot of them is in debts which Iron Bank is now calling in thanks to LF. LF of course wants to be the one helping Vale lords to pay of their debts.

Spoiler

Grafton though is concerned about Lords Declarant gaining a lot of silver which would be useful for potential war.

I don't really think silver is better than food in this scenario since I don't see mercenaries coming to fight in such extreme conditions as winter in Vale is. So if Lords Declarant are really getting ready for war they will also rather keep food, but I don't think they do, since they have just signed a treaty with LF and they still have their honor to look after.

Spoiler

I also believe Winged knights will be hostages to remove threat from some Lords Declerant, since tournament tilts are probably made by LF that right people will win the honor of serving in Sweetrobin's Winged knights.

Probably bigger threat to LF is Nestor Royce. He probably knows LF is behind murder of Lysa and knows that Alayne is Sansa. I still don't see him having hold of Sweetrobin and LF since there are armies of nobles loyal to Lord Protectorate LF.

I don't believe Mad Mouse will kidnap Sansa.

Spoilers, dude...

Spoiler

Petyr wants his rivals in the Vale to sell...

Quote

“When their graneries are empty, they will need every scrap of that silver to buy sustenance from us." 

Alayne, Winds

Why do you think Nestor knows that Alayne is Sansa? What is the point of the Mad Mouse? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/15/2017 at 11:13 AM, Pukisbaisals said:

Spoiler

 

I think Sansa can be in danger because of her rival, daughter of spice merchant:

Saffron's father can attempt eliminate Sansa if she comes close to marriage with Harry. Why bastardborn Alayne is better than daughter of rich merchant?

In aFfC lord of ancient noble house married merchant's daughter:

so Saffron's father can nourish plans to wed his daughter to Harry the Heir.

 

 

Did you notice that the girl is red (like a Targaryen) and the boy is black (like a blackfyre)? Maybe it's just a coincidence...

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/16/2017 at 8:00 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The idea isn't to openly declare them hostages, like with Theon being called a ward, it is just that everyone knows they are there.  Nestor already supported LF once when the lords declarant surrounded the gates of the moon.  All he would have to do is the exact same thing, simply man the walls and not open the gates.  Accept now instead of only having Robert Aryn, LF would have the children of everyone outside the gate, anyone storms the castle and their child dies.  It is the entire basis of having wards, Rickard Stark showed trust in Jon Aryn, and he gave Jon Aryn basically a promise by saying so long as you have my son I won't be attacking you.  

Any lord whose son is a winged knight will know that their son is in LF's possession.  The Eyrie had a skeleton crew when winter approached, but the others had simply already gone to the gates of the moon, where the larger garrison is.  All the men in that garrison would likely obey an order from LF, unless it was countered by an order from Nestor Royce.  In effect, those men are LF's too, and they number at least a few hundred as a strong castle would.

Take for example the idea that LF will manipulate the tournament so that Harry the Heir wins.(I personally believe Sansa will orchestrate a block on this using Lothor Brunes desire for Mya).  But lets say LF's plan works and Harry the Heir becomes a winged knight.  Royce and Waynwood are both partial to the boy having spent time raising him, they would not want to see him harmed.  Or Michael Redfort, same thing with his parents.  It is just 1 more piece of leverage for LF, he doesn't have to ever bring it up, but if people were thinking about taking him down, they would have to take the winged knights into consideration.

Those winged knights will be eight of the badest fighters in the realm, and they will have squires and retainers in their service. Littlefinger would have to exercise a lot of muscle to take them out. 

[Nevets]

The story in the Vale is primarily Sansa's story.  Littlefinger is there mainly as a foil and antagonist for Sansa.

Sansa is way more perceptive and aware, and less naive, than she was at the beginning of the story. For example, AGOT Sansa could never have figured out that Lyn Corbray was working for Littlefinger.  The idea wouldn't have even occurred to her.

She is learning under LF's tutelage, and he clearly thinks of her as his protege.  What he fails to realize, is that her interests and values do not coincide with his, ahd this will bring them into conflict, and eventually lead Sansa to turn on her mentor, allying with his enemies or possibly killing him.

There are many potential catalysts for this breach ranging from past events (role in Ned's execution, Jeyne Poole) to the future (plots to murder Sweetrobin or Harry, for example).  But she will find herself separating herself from her mentor.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/17/2017 at 4:27 PM, Curled Finger said:

My memory is not what it should be.   I remembered the Mountain Clansmen returning to the Vale. 

You are correct... When Arya and Sandor are shuffling aimlessly about the foothills to the Mountains of the Moon, they learn that Ol' One Eye, Timett son of Timett and the daughter of Elys and Alys Arryn that was carried off by the Burned Men has returned. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/18/2017 at 9:09 AM, LindsayLohan said:

As to the idea that the clansmen may show up, or even enter the melee: Does Timmett, son of Timmett, know his own lineage?

I wonder if Tyrion might be able to figure it out? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/18/2017 at 2:20 PM, Tygett Lannister said:

Yes you are right I wasn't sure before. But I find it unlikely Clansmen would be accepted as rulers since they are kind alike Wildlings to North.

Don't really think LF wants chaos and civil war in Vale.

They are First Men, as are the men of House Royce and other houses among the Lords Declarant. In Timett, they might have an heir to rival Harry, who appears to be allying with Petyr. Perhaps Tyrion might broker some new First Men alliance in the Vale as part of the greater struggle that will be known as the Second Dance of the Dragons. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/18/2017 at 5:56 PM, Curled Finger said:

Thanks for making me feel better about my memory, Arya.   I knew some of those fierce clansmen made it home...with good steel, as Tyrion promised.  Do you recall if Timmet is the son of the stolen Arryn daughter?   It will be very interesting to see if the Clansmen can take the Vale, as Tyrion also promised.   I stated above that I believe you're right and civil war or at the very least, serious dissention, is the object of Little Finger's chaos making in the Vale.   It's interesting to get objective (like that's ever easy) and weigh Little Finger's plans.   He's an opportunist for sure and he seems to be clearing a definite line between the houses of the Vale.   I hope Timmet Son of Timmet catch him and feed his man parts to a goat.    

A Lannister always pays his debts. 

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

A Lannister always pays his debts. 

You are soooooo right.   Sometimes I forget Tyrion is a Lannister!

[Tygett Lannister]

 

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Spoilers, dude...

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Contains TWOW spoilers!

Can't say people didn't get warned it is literally the only thing in bold.

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why do you think Nestor knows that Alayne is Sansa? What is the point of the Mad Mouse? 

Spoiler

Miranda is loyal to her father Nestor and she was sent up the Eyrie which is a climb that makes brave men shit themselves and it is quite dangerous. In discussion with Sansa Miranda could figure out Sansa is lying, she says she was taught about sex, doesn't cares about new High Septon while she was supposed to be raised by the faith. When Miranda tells her about new LC, Sansa asks: "Jon Snow?!" How would she know some random bastard's name?

Mad Mouse was hired by LF to be part of his guard and some people think he is Varys' agent and might kidnap Sansa.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

35 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

 

Can't say people didn't get warned it is literally the only thing in bold.

  Hide contents

Miranda is loyal to her father Nestor and she was sent up the Eyrie which is a climb that makes brave men shit themselves and it is quite dangerous. In discussion with Sansa Miranda could figure out Sansa is lying, she says she was taught about sex, doesn't cares about new High Septon while she was supposed to be raised by the faith. When Miranda tells her about new LC, Sansa asks: "Jon Snow?!" How would she know some random bastard's name?

Mad Mouse was hired by LF to be part of his guard and some people think he is Varys' agent and might kidnap Sansa.

 

I know you said spoiler alert, but you're still supposed to use the tags. Those are the rules. Whether you choose to follow them, or whether the rules are enforced is between you and the mods. 

[Tygett Lannister]

10 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I know you said spoiler alert, but you're still supposed to use the tags. Those are the rules. Whether you choose to follow them, or whether the rules are enforced is between you and the mods. 

Okay I will thing is I just don't remember what was in TWOW and other books sometimes.

[HoodedCrow]

The Hound, Brienne, Gendry, Timmet, Tyrion on a dragon, and Jaime will all show up to compete.

[Tygett Lannister]

On 12/20/2017 at 6:29 PM, HoodedCrow said:

The Hound, Brienne, Gendry, Timmet, Tyrion on a dragon, and Jaime will all show up to compete.

Will Tyrion joust with a dragon?

[HoodedCrow]

I think Tyrion on a drago,or someone advised by Tyrion will set off an avalanche, in due course. The little man will fly, and the Eerie would make a good dragon perch.