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4 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Also whole transport of poison from LF to drunkard Dontos to a child that lost her father (Sansa) to Ollena to possibly also Garlan Tyrell seems risky and unnecessary while a servant putting strangler on pie and lemon cream over makes much more sense.  So kind of a flaw in the story I would say.

Actually it was a very good plan.

First LF offered his help to Olenna, to free Margaery from Joffrey. Thus afterwards Olenna will trust LF, and Tyrells will support him, when he will also need help.

Then LF made Sansa part of his plan, to get her away from KL and Lannisters. He needed her for his further plans, that included union between The North, The Vale, and Riverlands. And Sansa is the key to that union. So LF gave poison to Dontos, and Dontos gave it to Sansa. Then after death of Joffrey, both of them - Dontos and Sansa escaped. People knew that it was Sansa who saved Dontos from being executed on Joffrey's order. And after their escape people found body of Dontos, and with it a jewellery that Sansa was wearing. And they also found out that the poison was from this jewellery.

So by making Sansa to escape with Dontos, and killing Dontos, and leaving on his body Sansa's jewellery, Lf made obvious to people, that Joffrey was killed by Sansa. And that Dontos was used by Sansa, because he wanted to repay to her for saving him. But after making him her accomplice in Joffrey's murder, Sansa killed him too. So when LF spelled this to Sansa, she realised that she can't go back to KL. And that the only way for her to stay alive, is to go with LF, and to do what he wants.

Thru involving Olenna, LF made Tyrells indebted to him. Thru involving Sansa, he made it impossible for her not to go with him, and that way he received his key to three Kingdoms. And thru involving Dontos, LF used him as a means to get Sansa out of KL after Joffrey will be killed, and also to leave him as a scapegoat, and to frame Sansa.

But Garlan Tyrell is unnecessary as part of that plan.

Probably Olenna asked for help from LF, because of something that he said to Margaery and Loras, while he was negotiating with them in Renly's camp, prior his death. It was LF who helped to arrange union between Lannisters and Tyrells. And thru his involvement their united army saved KL during Battle at Blackwater Bay. So first after death of Renly, LF arranged marriage of Margaery and Joffrey. And then it was also him, who suggested to Olenna that Joffrey will be a very bad husband, and that with him Margaery won't be safe. Thus it was also him, who first offered his help to Olenna, to get rid of Joffrey. And she only accepted his offer, so it wasn't her own plan. Because if it was her plan, then not Sansa, nor Dontos wouldn't be part of it.

So it was entirely planned by LF alone. And all other participants he just used as his pawns.

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3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

And I also hate every speculation that says that a woman will have to be stabbed through the heart to make Lightbringer. So much no to that!

What if "stabb through the heart" is not literal but figirative - she will fall in love, and thru this love the Lightbringer will be born.

Thus Jon Snow is Azor Ahai, Daenerys Targaryen is the woman that will fall in love with him, and their child will be a Lightbringer.

Heart pierced with an arrow, is a symbol of heart in love. So heart pierced with sword, is the Westerosian version of this love symbol.

2 hours ago, Faera said:

but I'm also still befuddled as to why Olenna Tyrell would risk poisoning the cup herself when she could have got an agent of hers disguised as a servant to do it for her.

Because it was more pleasant to her to do it herself. She's a Queen of Thorns, she likes to do bad and naughty things. For example, like sneaking at night in bedroom of her sister's fiance, and seducing him. That way she became Lady of Highgarden, instead of her older sister.

To feel adrenaline rush, by doing in the open something so awful - killing another person. And to personally protect safety of her dear granddaughter Margaery.

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5 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Actually it was a very good plan.

First LF offered his help to Olenna, to free Margaery from Joffrey. Thus afterwards Olenna will trust LF, and Tyrells will support him, when he will also need help.

Then LF made Sansa part of his plan, to get her away from KL and Lannisters. He needed her for his further plans, that included union between The North, The Vale, and Riverlands. And Sansa is the key to that union. So LF gave poison to Dontos, and Dontos gave it to Sansa. Then after death of Joffrey, both of them - Dontos and Sansa escaped. People knew that it was Sansa who saved Dontos from being executed on Joffrey's order. And after their escape people found body of Dontos, and with it a jewellery that Sansa was wearing. And they also found out that the poison was from this jewellery.

So by making Sansa to escape with Dontos, and killing Dontos, and leaving on his body Sansa's jewellery, Lf made obvious to people, that Joffrey was killed by Sansa. And that Dontos was used by Sansa, because he wanted to repay to her for saving him. But after making him her accomplise in Joffrey's murder, Sansa killed him too. So when LF spelled this to Sansa, she realised that she can't go back to KL. And that the only way for her to stay alive, is to go with LF, and to do what he wants.

Thru involving Olenna, LF made Tyrells indebted to him. Thru involving Sansa, he made it impossible for her not to go with him, and that way he received his key to three Kingdoms. And thru involving Dontos, LF used him as a means to get Sansa out of KL after Joffrey will be killed, and also to leave him as a scapegoat, and to frame Sansa.

But Garlan Tyrell is unnecessary as part of that plan.

Probably Olenna asked for help from LF, because of something that he said to Margaery and Loras, while he was negotiating with them in Renly's camp, prior his death. It was LF who helped to arrange union between Lannisters and Tyrells. And thru his involvement their united army saved KL during Battle at Blackwater Bay. So first after death of Renly, LF arranged marriage of Margaery and Joffrey. And then it was also him, who suggested to Olenna that Joffrey will be a very bad husband, and that with him Margaery won't be safe. Thus it was also him, who first offered his help to Olenna, to get rid of Joffrey. And she only accepted his offer, so it wasn't her own plan. Because if it was her plan, then not Sansa, nor Dontos wouldn't be part of it.

So it was entirely planned by LF alone. And all other participants he just used as his pawns.

You are ignoring so many things...

First, in that theory it was ollena (or a tyrell) that poisoned joffrey. So why would ollena plan regicide with LF just so he can buy a poison and make it pass through several dangerous stepts to get it into olenna's hands? 

For olenna LF is a lyability! If she wanted to poison joffrey she just needed to buy poison, take it with her into the wedding and poison him when there is a distraction that she should also be able to create. There is no point in involving LF and he could be a lannister spy to test the tyrells...

In addition, the tyrells also want sansa to get the north. While they could trust that LF would bring sansa to them, when it didn t happen and seeing how things are going for them in AFFC they would either visit LF in the vale (because they know he has sansa) or tell cersei about it so that they can gain something... 

On the whole the tyrells behaviour doesn t make sense... 

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10 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

That Doran Martell secretly hates his children and is purposely putting them into danger.

He so is. It's too bad we don't have a Doran POV. It would have been nice to see what's going in that head of his and how he's been plotting vengeance for 17 years but has really been waiting for others to do that for him. 

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9 minutes ago, divica said:

1. First, in that theory it was ollena (or a tyrell) that poisoned joffrey. So why would ollena plan regicide with LF just so he can buy a poison and make it pass through several dangerous stepts to get it into olenna's hands? 

2. For olenna LF is a lyability! If she wanted to poison joffrey she just needed to buy poison, take it with her into the wedding and poison him when there is a distraction that she should also be able to create. There is no point in involving LF and he could be a lannister spy to test the tyrells...

3. In addition, the tyrells also want sansa to get the north. While they could trust that LF would bring sansa to them, when it didn t happen and seeing how things are going for them in AFFC they would either visit LF in the vale (because they know he has sansa) or tell cersei about it so that they can gain something... 

On the whole the tyrells behaviour doesn t make sense... 

1. Read my post above - she wanted to do it personally, because of two reasons.

2. For Olenna LF is a powerfull and beneficial ally.

Margaery wanted to be queen. Tyrells wanted to have power. So they went against the Crown, and allyed with Renly Baratheon, thru his marriage with Margaery. But when Renly was suddenly killed, in a middle of his war-camp, surrownded by his allies and protectors, Tyrells were left empty handed. Furthermore their people were leaving them, to join Stannis, and Lannisters army was going after them (or eventually would have went after them). But LF arranged negotiations between Tywin and Tyrells. They joined forces against Stannis, and after defeating him, Tyrells again had an opportunity to make Margaery a Queen. Not to mention that Margaery's father got a place at Small Council.

Also if LF will tell Lannisters about Olenna trying to poison Joffrey, Olenna may say that she was just testing LF. And to whom will people believe more - to grandmother of Queen Margaery, or to LF, a biggest liar in 7K? Also what evidence against Olenna, LF could have given to Lannisters? -> It's just his word against hers.

3. They don't want Sansa just to get The North. They want Sansa to marry with one of Tyrells, and then Tyrells will get The North.

Also could be that LF and Olenna agreed that LF should take Sansa away from KL, and hide her somewhere. Olenna trusted LF to keep Sansa safe, and away from KL, untill they will be ready to take her.

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14 minutes ago, Megorova said:

1. Read my post above - she wanted to do it personally, because of two reasons.

2. For Olenna LF is a powerfull and beneficial ally.

Margaery wanted to be queen. Tyrells wanted to have power. So they went against the Crown, and allyed with Renly Baratheon, thru his marriage with Margaery. But when Renly was suddenly killed, in a middle of his war-camp, surrownded by his allies and protectors, Tyrells were left empty handed. Furthermore their people were leaving them, to join Stannis, and Lannisters army was going after them (or eventually would have went after them). But LF arranged negotiations between Tywin and Tyrells. They joined forces against Stannis, and after defeating him, Tyrells again had an opportunity to make Margaery a Queen. Not to mention that Margaery's father got a place at Small Council.

Also if LF will tell Lannisters about Olenna trying to poison Joffrey, Olenna may say that she was just testing LF. And to whom will people believe more - to grandmother of Queen Margaery, or to LF, a biggest liar in 7K? Also what evidence against Olenna, LF could have given to Lannisters? -> It's just his word against hers.

3. They don't want Sansa just to get The North. They want Sansa to marry with one of Tyrells, and then Tyrells will get The North.

Also could be that LF and Olenna agreed that LF should take Sansa away from KL, and hide her somewhere. Olenna trusted LF to keep Sansa safe, and away from KL, untill they will be ready to take her.

The problem is if ollena wanted to poison joffrei what did she need LF for? And why take the risk of being her who poisons joffrei when she has just hired LF? 

And as you said, LF is a good ally but you can t trust him. So why would ollena trust him with regicide that could spell the doom of her house? The stakes are too high for olenna to trust LF when he brings almost nothing to the plan! If she wanted to increase their relation she could have given him some reward for making marg queen...

Then, in order for sansa to be useful for the tyrells she can t be a suspect of joffrey poisoning. The lannisters won t accept her claim to the north because they want her dead. And the Tyrells don t want to be in open war with the lannisters, they just want to take advantage of the situation.

Basically sansa now is worthless for the tyrells that want to keep their allaince with the lannisters so that marg is queen. So they should just deliver sansa to cercei for pollitcal gain! And again, as you said, people can t trust LF. So why would the tyrells trust him to keep sansa hidden for them until god knows when? they know he will use her to acomplish his goals!

 

On the other hand, the plan makes much more sense if LF is acting alone and has to pass the poison to a servent which is probably searched before the cerimony to avoid poisoning the food (lol). Then he feels safe living in the vale as LF because no one knows he has sansa!

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5 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

He so is. It's too bad we don't have a Doran POV. It would have been nice to see what's going in that head of his and how he's been plotting vengeance for 17 years but has really been waiting for others to do that for him. 

I think he names his blood oranges after his enemies, then he crushes them to pulp and feels better about himself.

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8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Because it was more pleasant to her to do it herself. She's a Queen of Thorns, she likes to do bad and naughty things. For example, like sneaking at night in bedroom of her sister's fiance, and seducing him. That way she became Lady of Highgarden, instead of her older sister.

1

That didn't happen in the books.

Luthor was engaged to Shaera Targaryen, not one of Olenna's sisters -- when Shaera ran off to marry her brother Jaehaerys (they later became King and Queen) and Daeron dumped Olenna with no explanation, it seems the Tyrells and Redwynes married the two jilted betrothed, perhaps to reinforce to King Aegon how ticked off they were with him. You are quoting the show, which you should be careful about in the book section.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

To feel adrenaline rush, by doing in the open something so awful - killing another person. And to personally protect safety of her dear granddaughter Margaery.

Margaery was drinking from the same cup. Putting it in Joffrey's chalice, which was already been kicked around and dumped over Tyrion's head, was stupid. Olenna is too smart for that. Even if she was the one who ordered a hit on Joffrey, I doubt she would have risked putting the poison in herself -- she would have hired someone to put it in.

Also, how did she even come to team up with LF of all people when she could have organised the hit herself?

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10 hours ago, Megorova said:

Actually it was a very good plan.

First LF offered his help to Olenna, to free Margaery from Joffrey. Thus afterwards Olenna will trust LF, and Tyrells will support him, when he will also need help.

Then LF made Sansa part of his plan, to get her away from KL and Lannisters. He needed her for his further plans, that included union between The North, The Vale, and Riverlands. And Sansa is the key to that union. So LF gave poison to Dontos, and Dontos gave it to Sansa. Then after death of Joffrey, both of them - Dontos and Sansa escaped. People knew that it was Sansa who saved Dontos from being executed on Joffrey's order. And after their escape people found body of Dontos, and with it a jewellery that Sansa was wearing. And they also found out that the poison was from this jewellery.

So by making Sansa to escape with Dontos, and killing Dontos, and leaving on his body Sansa's jewellery, Lf made obvious to people, that Joffrey was killed by Sansa. And that Dontos was used by Sansa, because he wanted to repay to her for saving him. But after making him her accomplice in Joffrey's murder, Sansa killed him too. So when LF spelled this to Sansa, she realised that she can't go back to KL. And that the only way for her to stay alive, is to go with LF, and to do what he wants.

Thru involving Olenna, LF made Tyrells indebted to him. Thru involving Sansa, he made it impossible for her not to go with him, and that way he received his key to three Kingdoms. And thru involving Dontos, LF used him as a means to get Sansa out of KL after Joffrey will be killed, and also to leave him as a scapegoat, and to frame Sansa.

But Garlan Tyrell is unnecessary as part of that plan.

Probably Olenna asked for help from LF, because of something that he said to Margaery and Loras, while he was negotiating with them in Renly's camp, prior his death. It was LF who helped to arrange union between Lannisters and Tyrells. And thru his involvement their united army saved KL during Battle at Blackwater Bay. So first after death of Renly, LF arranged marriage of Margaery and Joffrey. And then it was also him, who suggested to Olenna that Joffrey will be a very bad husband, and that with him Margaery won't be safe. Thus it was also him, who first offered his help to Olenna, to get rid of Joffrey. And she only accepted his offer, so it wasn't her own plan. Because if it was her plan, then not Sansa, nor Dontos wouldn't be part of it.

So it was entirely planned by LF alone. And all other participants he just used as his pawns.

LF could easily be working for Lannisters to test their loyalty for all Ollena knows. If it was a trap entire Tyrell family and all Reach lords imprisoned they would get control over Tyrell army since they would release their vassals promised Reach to some Tyrell vassal in return for alliance where Lannisters would have upper hand while with Lannister-Tyrell it was pretty equal. Lannisters could get rid of debt to Tyrells as part of their release agreement. If Tyrells want to kill Joffrey they can do it without some shady guy's help. I am not denying that LF profits from this plot but Tyrells don't. Entire Reach can't provide a piece of strangler? Ollena Queen of Thorns known for her ruthlessness can't get a strangler? Really?

Even though this plan benefits LF him killing Tyrion would be far more beneficial and done with help of a servant much less risky than weird neckless plan. LF killing Tyrion would make more sense since it would also cause confusion for Sansa to escape and she would be widowed and ready to marry someone else (LF, Harrold ...). LF also attempts to kill Tyrion via kingsguard Mandon Moore and later Penny.

Ollena might be to short to put strangler in cup since it was so tall so Garlan might need to get involved. That is maybe.

So it is plan that makes 0 sense for Ollena side and some sense for LF but Tyrion target makes much more sense.

 

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Tough to say best theory... that Shireen will be burned is pretty good (for a long time I envisioned her sitting on the Iron Throne at the end, possibly with or without a King consort Rickon), and that Danerys will die in childbirth I am also fond of.  Also that grayscale will be weaponized to combat the Others.

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14 hours ago, Megorova said:

And after their escape people found body of Dontos, and with it a jewellery that Sansa was wearing. And they also found out that the poison was from this jewellery.

I find nothing to indicate Dontos took back the deadly hair net. Nor did Littlefinger place it on Dontos' body. In fact, after he had Dontos shot in the rowboat, they threw in a flaming torch, to get rid of the physical evidence altogether. If the hair net was thrown into Blackwater Bay, there would be no chance in any of the seven hells that it would ever be found.

Furthermore, I don't see any evidence of Dontos' body being found and thus the murder tied to Sansa. The consensus was that Tyrion did it, possibly in collusion with his young wife, but it was basically Tyrion all the way. Having settled on Tyrion, there was no need to search further.

Littlefinger has Sansa in a cage, no doubt of that. But it's a cage built of physical isolation (the little Fingers, the Eyrie, later the Vale), anonymity as Baelish's "bastard," and Sansa's own inability to take any action or initiative on her own behalf. This is her character: she sits and suffers, and can't imagine doing anything "wicked", like Arya undoubtedly would. Sansa will do whatever Littlefinger tells her, because she's a good girl, and because he gives her a plausible enough rationalization, and there's alway the big payoff that will come if she serves him well enough.

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14 hours ago, Megorova said:

Actually it was a very good plan.

First LF offered his help to Olenna, to free Margaery from Joffrey. Thus afterwards Olenna will trust LF, and Tyrells will support him, when he will also need help.

Then LF made Sansa part of his plan, to get her away from KL and Lannisters. He needed her for his further plans, that included union between The North, The Vale, and Riverlands. And Sansa is the key to that union. So LF gave poison to Dontos, and Dontos gave it to Sansa. Then after death of Joffrey, both of them - Dontos and Sansa escaped. People knew that it was Sansa who saved Dontos from being executed on Joffrey's order. And after their escape people found body of Dontos, and with it a jewellery that Sansa was wearing. And they also found out that the poison was from this jewellery.

Sorry? No, that is not what happened at all. Here's the death and disposal of the remains of Ser Dontos:

Three men stepped to the gunwale, raised crossbows, fired. One bolt took Dontos in the chest as he looked up, punching through the left crown on his surcoat. The others ripped into throat and belly. It happened so quickly neither Dontos nor Sansa had time to cry out. When it was done, Lothor Brune tossed the torch down on top of the corpse. The little boat was blazing fiercely as the galley moved away.

So, Ser Dontos gets cremated, which is certainly not what one does when one wishes the body to be found and recognized. No wonder that later Dontos is presumed alive:

(Varys) "I have found no trace of Lady Sansa in King's Landing, sad to say. Nor of Ser Dontos Hollard, who by rights should have turned up somewhere drunk by now."

(Brienne) He helped her flee, Brienne had decided, when she heard the tale. Find Ser Dontos, and I will find Sansa.

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In terms of how believable, insightful and plausible and well-elaborated they are:

R+L = J
GNC in some way, shape or form
Grand Vale conspiracy in some form
Every mention of arbor gold signifies lie or deception of some kind
Every mention of sapphire signifies some secret relevant to the scene
 

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Ned = KotLT

Honorable mention:

Tywin has been constipated for decades.

Guard 1: Why's he spend so much time in there?

Guard 2: Where do you think all their gold comes from?

Guard 1: What do you mean?

Guard 2: He shits gold.

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