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Buddhakin

Harwin is the Hooded man

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1 hour ago, divica said:

but mors is conspiring with the manderleys. So if mance is conspiring with the manderleys he is also conspiring with mors.

Or you think mors and the manderleys aren t working together?

I guess I misunderstood you, I thought you were implying that Mance could disguise himself as a Manderly guy and slip out since there are several hundred of them, I didn't realize you meant he was actually working with them.

The whole point of my post is just to point out that people have come up with all these conspiracies when there are simple explanations available that don't require tons of stuff we have no evidence of to have happened.

Mance launching his plan when the horns start is not an indication of him working with anyone, its an indication that he thinks Stannis has arrived and that it is finally safe to escape, whereas before it was not safe, because they would simply be hunted down and killed.

As far as Mors working with Manderly, I find that much more likely.  I just don't think Mance was involved in any of it.

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2 hours ago, divica said:

but mors is conspiring with the manderleys. So if mance is conspiring with the manderleys he is also conspiring with mors.

Or you think mors and the manderleys aren t working together?

Thinking about it further, I would actually say you have just proved that Mance was not working with any northerners, because your right, if he was his entire crew could've slipped out with them, and there would be no need for the risky move going over the wall.  The fact that they did not leave with the Manderlys seems pretty solidly to indicate they are not working together.

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Just now, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Thinking about it further, I would actually say you have just proved that Mance was not working with any northerners, because your right, if he was his entire crew could've slipped out with them, and there would be no need for the risky move going over the wall.  The fact that they did not leave with the Manderlys seems pretty solidly to indicate they are not working together.

But his crew arrived with the maderleys right? (I am not sure if it were them or the mors)

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20 hours ago, divica said:

But his crew arrived with the maderleys right? (I am not sure if it were them or the mors)

IDK, I don't remember who or if he arrived with anyone.  However it sounds plausible because Manderly was the last to arrive and also is the only one who controls a city, which is where you would expect to find singers.  So I still see no reason to assume that the King of the wildlings has somehow won over all the northern lords who wanted his head.  All his actions are perfectly logical and do not require a conspiracy to explain.

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14 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

IDK, I don't remember who or if he arrived with anyone.  However it sounds plausible because Manderly was the last to arrive and also is the only one who controls a city, which is where you would expect to find singers.  So I still see no reason to assume that the King of the wildlings has somehow won over all the northern lords who wanted his head.  All his actions are perfectly logical and do not require a conspiracy to explain.

Lets forget the how.

The fact that mance and 6 spearwives somehow joined manderley's party is taken as proof that they are working together. And things go on from here because wyman and mors are working together.

Honnestly, I think you are right. Mance wouldn t announce himself to manderley and if the northern's wanted to rescue arya they would need to have a plan A before meeting mance. When wyman leaves white arbor he has to have a plan!

However I can t see wyman being in winterfell without trying to rescue arya... So I think mance must be in league with them

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On ‎1‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 7:36 PM, divica said:

However lady Dustin hates the starks. So would she really be interested in oposing roose for the starks?

Does she? I'm not sure I believe all that talk, especially since her little trip to the crypts offered the perfect cover for someone trying to get into the castle.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Does she? I'm not sure I believe all that talk, especially since her little trip to the crypts offered the perfect cover for someone trying to get into the castle.

 

 

 

I think she hates ned. Or at least dislikes him. But the point is that is the only possible ally rose can get.

The more I talk about the north the more fucked roose seems. The only option I can see for roose is to kill all the leaders of the northern houses in winterfell and assume control of the men they sent. Anything else and he lost.

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17 hours ago, divica said:

Lets forget the how.

The fact that mance and 6 spearwives somehow joined manderley's party is taken as proof that they are working together. And things go on from here because wyman and mors are working together.

Honnestly, I think you are right. Mance wouldn t announce himself to manderley and if the northern's wanted to rescue arya they would need to have a plan A before meeting mance. When wyman leaves white arbor he has to have a plan!

However I can t see wyman being in winterfell without trying to rescue arya... So I think mance must be in league with them

They did not arrive together. Mance arrived shortly after the Manderlys:

Quote

DoD, The Turncloak

He calls himself a bard. In truth he's more a pander. Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, had had been made welcome.

This doesn't mean they could not be working together, but since Manderly is coming from the south and Mance from the north, it seems unlikely, and it would have been easier just to bring Mance and Co. in as part of the Manderly contingent then to have Mance arrive separately.

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6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

They did not arrive together. Mance arrived shortly after the Manderlys:

This doesn't mean they could not be working together, but since Manderly is coming from the south and Mance from the north, it seems unlikely, and it would have been easier just to bring Mance and Co. in as part of the Manderly contingent then to have Mance arrive separately.

Wow. I could swear that I have read in a lot of places that mance arrived in manderley's party posing as a bard. So the northerns weren t trying to rescue arya? That changes things.

That would mean that wyman's strategy must have been to take the castle from the inside.

And I don t know how mance could make anyone trust him enough to put him in charge of rescuing arya. Even if one of the spearwives is a northern (as I think some people have sugested) no northern lord would trust arya to a group of wildlings...

Edited by divica

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17 minutes ago, divica said:

Wow. I could swear that I have read in a lot of places that mance arrived in manderley's party posing as a bard. So the northerns weren t trying to rescue arya? That changes things.

That would mean that wyman's strategy must have been to take the castle from the inside.

And I don t know how mance could make anyone trust him enough to put him in charge of rescuing arya. Even if one of the spearwives is a northern (as I think some people have sugested) no northern lord would trust arya to a group of wildlings...

Jon has Mance's son (or so he thinks), so Mance isn't going to betray Jon.

And I don't think a single one of the northern lords believes this is really Arya anyway. All of them, except Roose apparently, would have met Arya on multiple occasions before she left for King's Landing, so no one is falling for this farce.

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5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Jon has Mance's son (or so he thinks), so Mance isn't going to betray Jon.

And I don't think a single one of the northern lords believes this is really Arya anyway. All of them, except Roose apparently, would have met Arya on multiple occasions before she left for King's Landing, so no one is falling for this farce.

But would wyman or anyone else believe that jon snow, LC of the NW, has mance rayder's son and ordered the wildling king to kidnap his sister and bring her to the Wall?

Wouldn t be much more believable that mance rayder or any other wildling wants to kidnap arya and use her as leverage against jon?

I think mors asks her a series of questions to verify her identity, so some might believe it is possible. Although some must also know she isn t arya. However when wyman leaves withe arbor he must have some kind of plan to defeat the boltons and rescue arya. But the fact that he lets the marriage happen might mean something...

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17 hours ago, divica said:

But would wyman or anyone else believe that jon snow, LC of the NW, has mance rayder's son and ordered the wildling king to kidnap his sister and bring her to the Wall?

Wouldn t be much more believable that mance rayder or any other wildling wants to kidnap arya and use her as leverage against jon?

I think mors asks her a series of questions to verify her identity, so some might believe it is possible. Although some must also know she isn t arya. However when wyman leaves withe arbor he must have some kind of plan to defeat the boltons and rescue arya. But the fact that he lets the marriage happen might mean something...

Your still making all these assumptions about Mance working together with people, if you just abandon that thought it all makes sense.  None of the northerners know that is Mance, they didn't trust him to do anything because he isn't working with anyone.

But your right about Mors, and I don't think anyone gives any indication they don't think it's her.  The mountain clans sure seem to think its her, and so do Mances spearwives who have been sleeping with people and likely gathering information while doing so.

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13 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Your still making all these assumptions about Mance working together with people, if you just abandon that thought it all makes sense.  None of the northerners know that is Mance, they didn't trust him to do anything because he isn't working with anyone.

But your right about Mors, and I don't think anyone gives any indication they don't think it's her.  The mountain clans sure seem to think its her, and so do Mances spearwives who have been sleeping with people and likely gathering information while doing so.

Ok. lets assume mance is working alone.

So wyman went to winterfell to form an aliance with the northern houses there and check if arya was really there but not to save her?

We have to assume wyman suspects she is fake because mors is checking her identity. On the other hand wyman left winterfell without trying to save arya so that wasn t really his objective?

And if mance really thinks stannis is at the walls then what is his plan? hide in the cripts? also escape to stannis somehow? Or do you think it will be related to something magical? like the horn of joramun or there must always be a stark in winterfell?

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On 1/6/2018 at 2:51 PM, John Suburbs said:

Jon has Mance's son (or so he thinks), so Mance isn't going to betray Jon.

And I don't think a single one of the northern lords believes this is really Arya anyway. All of them, except Roose apparently, would have met Arya on multiple occasions before she left for King's Landing, so no one is falling for this farce.

I doubt that they would have met her much, or paid attention if they did.

She mentions two visits to White Harbour, but the purpose of those visits isn't stated.  Visiting the Manderlys was probably on the agenda, but it is also the commercial capital of the North, and a logical place to buy things.  And even if Wyman Manderly met her it was likely briefly, and with three (and a half) brothers, and an older sister, she was probably not paid much attention to.  Also, it would have been at least 3 years ago when she was 8.  Children change a lot in appearance at that age (the actress who plays Arya on the show changed so much between seasons 1 and 2 I almost thought she had been recast).  The main danger wouldn't be that somebody could tell that it wasn't Arya, but that they would recognize her as Jeyne Poole. 

While the Cerwyns were regular visitors, the Lord and his heir are now dead.  I don't anyone else would have been in a position to meet her.

It is possible that some suspect she isn't real, but I expect the main reason nobody has tried to rescue her is that they would have two problems.  First, the Boltons likely would retaliate against the rescuers or "Arya" herself, and second, there is no place to put her.  They can't get her out of the castle, and there is no place to hide her inside it.  Better to bide your time, and wait for an opportunity to get rid of the Boltons themselves.

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On 1/6/2018 at 3:12 PM, John Suburbs said:

Does she? I'm not sure I believe all that talk, especially since her little trip to the crypts offered the perfect cover for someone trying to get into the castle.

 

 

 

Even if Lady Dustin hates Ned as she says she does, she must hate Ramsay even more so because Domeric likely meant more to her than her past relationships and we know she blames Ramsay for her death. So her alliance to the Bolton's is an almost impossible one already. Even Roose doesn't expect Ramsay to be able to hold the North after he's gone and he doesn't believe his Frey kids will survive Ramsay. Roose is so lax about being convinced his house and name are fucked which would almost make me think that taking the north was one big farce but I can't see the logic in that either.

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On ‎1‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 5:03 PM, divica said:

But would wyman or anyone else believe that jon snow, LC of the NW, has mance rayder's son and ordered the wildling king to kidnap his sister and bring her to the Wall?

Wouldn t be much more believable that mance rayder or any other wildling wants to kidnap arya and use her as leverage against jon?

I think mors asks her a series of questions to verify her identity, so some might believe it is possible. Although some must also know she isn t arya. However when wyman leaves withe arbor he must have some kind of plan to defeat the boltons and rescue arya. But the fact that he lets the marriage happen might mean something...

 

On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 10:57 AM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Your still making all these assumptions about Mance working together with people, if you just abandon that thought it all makes sense.  None of the northerners know that is Mance, they didn't trust him to do anything because he isn't working with anyone.

But your right about Mors, and I don't think anyone gives any indication they don't think it's her.  The mountain clans sure seem to think its her, and so do Mances spearwives who have been sleeping with people and likely gathering information while doing so.

Exactly. I still don't see how we got to the idea that Mors, Wyman or anybody else knows this is really Mance.

And it seems that if the northern lords are conspiring to rid Winterfell of Boltons, then that would involve killing both Roose and Ramsey, after which they won't have any reason to "rescue" fArya because she will be a widow, freed from the Boltons. She isn't likely to keep insisting that she is Arya at this point, and since her story of being forced into this charade or die is plausible, I don't see any repercussions for her.

19 hours ago, Nevets said:

I doubt that they would have met her much, or paid attention if they did.

She mentions two visits to White Harbour, but the purpose of those visits isn't stated.  Visiting the Manderlys was probably on the agenda, but it is also the commercial capital of the North, and a logical place to buy things.  And even if Wyman Manderly met her it was likely briefly, and with three (and a half) brothers, and an older sister, she was probably not paid much attention to.  Also, it would have been at least 3 years ago when she was 8.  Children change a lot in appearance at that age (the actress who plays Arya on the show changed so much between seasons 1 and 2 I almost thought she had been recast).  The main danger wouldn't be that somebody could tell that it wasn't Arya, but that they would recognize her as Jeyne Poole. 

While the Cerwyns were regular visitors, the Lord and his heir are now dead.  I don't anyone else would have been in a position to meet her.

It is possible that some suspect she isn't real, but I expect the main reason nobody has tried to rescue her is that they would have two problems.  First, the Boltons likely would retaliate against the rescuers or "Arya" herself, and second, there is no place to put her.  They can't get her out of the castle, and there is no place to hide her inside it.  Better to bide your time, and wait for an opportunity to get rid of the Boltons themselves.

It does seem that Bran is meeting many of these people for the first time during Clash. If this is the case, this is a huge error on Ned's part. His bannermen should have made regular pilgrimages to Winterfell to renew fealty vows and discuss matters of state, and simply to make sure that when somebody shows up at your gates claiming to be this lord or that lord, they are really who they say they are.

But I disagree that Arya would not generate much interest. She is one of the few ways in which a lesser house can improve its status, so every lord who meets her would take a very keen interest in her, as with all of the Stark children.

And as I said above, the main objective is to rid Winterfell of Boltons, so once that is accomplished there is no need to "rescue" fArya even if they do know she is fake.

16 hours ago, Buddhakin said:

Even if Lady Dustin hates Ned as she says she does, she must hate Ramsay even more so because Domeric likely meant more to her than her past relationships and we know she blames Ramsay for her death. So her alliance to the Bolton's is an almost impossible one already. Even Roose doesn't expect Ramsay to be able to hold the North after he's gone and he doesn't believe his Frey kids will survive Ramsay. Roose is so lax about being convinced his house and name are fucked which would almost make me think that taking the north was one big farce but I can't see the logic in that either.

She clearly hates Ramsey. She wouldn't allow him or any of his men into Barrow Hall. Regardless of whether she truly hates Starks, though, her little trip to the crypts was exactly what someone needed if they were attempting to get into Winterfell through a secret passage down there.

My theory as to why Roose is so lax about Ramsey is highly complex and speculative (you can search for it elsewhere on this board), but Lady D sums it up best:

"This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys. Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings."

 

 

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8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 

Exactly. I still don't see how we got to the idea that Mors, Wyman or anybody else knows this is really Mance.

And it seems that if the northern lords are conspiring to rid Winterfell of Boltons, then that would involve killing both Roose and Ramsey, after which they won't have any reason to "rescue" fArya because she will be a widow, freed from the Boltons. She isn't likely to keep insisting that she is Arya at this point, and since her story of being forced into this charade or die is plausible, I don't see any repercussions for her.

It does seem that Bran is meeting many of these people for the first time during Clash. If this is the case, this is a huge error on Ned's part. His bannermen should have made regular pilgrimages to Winterfell to renew fealty vows and discuss matters of state, and simply to make sure that when somebody shows up at your gates claiming to be this lord or that lord, they are really who they say they are.

But I disagree that Arya would not generate much interest. She is one of the few ways in which a lesser house can improve its status, so every lord who meets her would take a very keen interest in her, as with all of the Stark children.

And as I said above, the main objective is to rid Winterfell of Boltons, so once that is accomplished there is no need to "rescue" fArya even if they do know she is fake.

She clearly hates Ramsey. She wouldn't allow him or any of his men into Barrow Hall. Regardless of whether she truly hates Starks, though, her little trip to the crypts was exactly what someone needed if they were attempting to get into Winterfell through a secret passage down there.

My theory as to why Roose is so lax about Ramsey is highly complex and speculative (you can search for it elsewhere on this board), but Lady D sums it up best:

"This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys. Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings."

 

 

True story. Ive played with the idea that Roose has promised Lady Dustin that Ramsay will die after he produces a heir with fArya. It is in everyones best interest if Ramsay goes away and Roose has to know that the North will never bow to his children with Fat Walda because the North won't support any Frey after the Red Wedding but Roose is very concerned withRamsay marrying and reproducing ASAP, before Ramsay can ruin any of his alliances.

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6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

My theory as to why Roose is so lax about Ramsey is highly complex and speculative (you can search for it elsewhere on this board), but Lady D sums it up best:

"This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys. Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings."

 

 

you have a theory about what roose is up to? Where? I would like to read it because to me roose wants to marry lady dustin and kill the leaders of the houses inside winterfell and take control of their men. However this seems unlikely...

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1 hour ago, Buddhakin said:

True story. Ive played with the idea that Roose has promised Lady Dustin that Ramsay will die after he produces a heir with fArya. It is in everyones best interest if Ramsay goes away and Roose has to know that the North will never bow to his children with Fat Walda because the North won't support any Frey after the Red Wedding but Roose is very concerned withRamsay marrying and reproducing ASAP, before Ramsay can ruin any of his alliances.

 

46 minutes ago, divica said:

you have a theory about what roose is up to? Where? I would like to read it because to me roose wants to marry lady dustin and kill the leaders of the houses inside winterfell and take control of their men. However this seems unlikely...

OK, since you've asked, I'll spell it out here, but let me say at the start that this is highly speculative, so please don't insist that I prove any of this. We'll just have to wait and see.

Roose, or at least the creature that we now call Roose, is the last surviving son of the Night's King. As such, he is half-human and either half-Other or half-wight. As the only heir of the NK, little Roose would naturally inherit his former lands and titles, either the Dreadfort or maybe even Winterfell.

Roose has survived through the millennia by fathering sons on human wives and, when the time is right, killing them, flaying their bodies (thus, the Bolton sigil) and then donning their skins to form a perfect likeness of his new host -- all except the eyes, which remain pale as milkglass. So in this way, Roose sheds the body of the old lord, who is now dead, and becomes the new lord.

This is why:

Roose is virtually hairless, never sweats, nor angers

He has to leach himself, since otherwise the blood will start to congeal in his hands and feet

Can silence even big loudmouths like the Greatjon with barely a whisper

Treats people like playthings; to him, human lifespans are like those of mice.

And it explains why he could care less that Ramsey killed Dom. It seems pretty evident that Dom was Brandon Stark's son, not Roose's. Dom's ability as a jouster is based on his horsemanship, which Lady Dustin says was more advanced than Lyanna Stark. So if we assume that Lyanna could warg horses the way the Stark children can warg their wolves, then Dom would have inherited this ability through Brandon, and Roose would be perceptive enough to realize this. Still, this is a problem for Roose because he can only skin-change into his blood offspring, but this particular heir is not of his body. But then along comes Ramsey, who Roose instantly knows to be his merely by looking at his eyes. So when Rams kills Dom, all Roose has to do is legitimize him and then wait for the right time to take over his body -- and this is a double-win for Roose because now he stands to become Lord of Winterfell.

This isn't to say that Roose might not have ruled in Winterfell before. Remember the story of Brandon Ice-Eyes, who threw the slavers out of White Harbor? That was probably Roose. In fact, if the Song of Ice and Fire is about blood magic, and the Fire component is Targaryen blood, then the Ice component would be Stark blood inherited by Roose way back in the Age of Heroes. And both bloodlines, and thus the Song of Ice and Fire, are now present in one person.

People call this the Bolt-on Theory or Vampire Roose, but it's really a bit more nuanced than that. The main driver is that I cannot think of any reason why even the most hateful, despicable lord would not only shrug his shoulders over the fact that his bastard has killed his heir -- an heir that had all the makings of becoming a champion jouster who would do nothing but bring honor and glory to House Bolton -- but then reward that bastard with honors and titles.

So as I said, I have no proof. All I'll suggest is that in the next two books, watch for Roose to die and then see if Ramsey doesn't start speaking in whispers and leeching himself.

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25 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 

OK, since you've asked, I'll spell it out here, but let me say at the start that this is highly speculative, so please don't insist that I prove any of this. We'll just have to wait and see.

Roose, or at least the creature that we now call Roose, is the last surviving son of the Night's King. As such, he is half-human and either half-Other or half-wight. As the only heir of the NK, little Roose would naturally inherit his former lands and titles, either the Dreadfort or maybe even Winterfell.

Roose has survived through the millennia by fathering sons on human wives and, when the time is right, killing them, flaying their bodies (thus, the Bolton sigil) and then donning their skins to form a perfect likeness of his new host -- all except the eyes, which remain pale as milkglass. So in this way, Roose sheds the body of the old lord, who is now dead, and becomes the new lord.

This is why:

Roose is virtually hairless, never sweats, nor angers

He has to leach himself, since otherwise the blood will start to congeal in his hands and feet

Can silence even big loudmouths like the Greatjon with barely a whisper

Treats people like playthings; to him, human lifespans are like those of mice.

And it explains why he could care less that Ramsey killed Dom. It seems pretty evident that Dom was Brandon Stark's son, not Roose's. Dom's ability as a jouster is based on his horsemanship, which Lady Dustin says was more advanced than Lyanna Stark. So if we assume that Lyanna could warg horses the way the Stark children can warg their wolves, then Dom would have inherited this ability through Brandon, and Roose would be perceptive enough to realize this. Still, this is a problem for Roose because he can only skin-change into his blood offspring, but this particular heir is not of his body. But then along comes Ramsey, who Roose instantly knows to be his merely by looking at his eyes. So when Rams kills Dom, all Roose has to do is legitimize him and then wait for the right time to take over his body -- and this is a double-win for Roose because now he stands to become Lord of Winterfell.

This isn't to say that Roose might not have ruled in Winterfell before. Remember the story of Brandon Ice-Eyes, who threw the slavers out of White Harbor? That was probably Roose. In fact, if the Song of Ice and Fire is about blood magic, and the Fire component is Targaryen blood, then the Ice component would be Stark blood inherited by Roose way back in the Age of Heroes. And both bloodlines, and thus the Song of Ice and Fire, are now present in one person.

People call this the Bolt-on Theory or Vampire Roose, but it's really a bit more nuanced than that. The main driver is that I cannot think of any reason why even the most hateful, despicable lord would not only shrug his shoulders over the fact that his bastard has killed his heir -- an heir that had all the makings of becoming a champion jouster who would do nothing but bring honor and glory to House Bolton -- but then reward that bastard with honors and titles.

So as I said, I have no proof. All I'll suggest is that in the next two books, watch for Roose to die and then see if Ramsey doesn't start speaking in whispers and leeching himself.

It has interesting parts that I could support, but there are things I completly disagree with. But it is a good theory that explains why he basically doesn t care about his kids.

In addition it conects the faceless men, arya, boltons and beings from the long night. If the first men acquired the magic of the cotf why not the magic of the others? Maybe arya will show that their skinchanging magic has 2 sides. It can be used like the cotf do and enter an animal or like the others and use other people skins? And the faceless men are less talented and can only change their face instead of their whole body like roose...

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