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Buddhakin

Harwin is the Hooded man

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

OK, since you've asked, I'll spell it out here, but let me say at the start that this is highly speculative, so please don't insist that I prove any of this. We'll just have to wait and see.

Roose, or at least the creature that we now call Roose, is the last surviving son of the Night's King. As such, he is half-human and either half-Other or half-wight. As the only heir of the NK, little Roose would naturally inherit his former lands and titles, either the Dreadfort or maybe even Winterfell.

Roose has survived through the millennia by fathering sons on human wives and, when the time is right, killing them, flaying their bodies (thus, the Bolton sigil) and then donning their skins to form a perfect likeness of his new host -- all except the eyes, which remain pale as milkglass. So in this way, Roose sheds the body of the old lord, who is now dead, and becomes the new lord.

This is why:

Roose is virtually hairless, never sweats, nor angers

He has to leach himself, since otherwise the blood will start to congeal in his hands and feet

Can silence even big loudmouths like the Greatjon with barely a whisper

Treats people like playthings; to him, human lifespans are like those of mice.

And it explains why he could care less that Ramsey killed Dom. It seems pretty evident that Dom was Brandon Stark's son, not Roose's. Dom's ability as a jouster is based on his horsemanship, which Lady Dustin says was more advanced than Lyanna Stark. So if we assume that Lyanna could warg horses the way the Stark children can warg their wolves, then Dom would have inherited this ability through Brandon, and Roose would be perceptive enough to realize this. Still, this is a problem for Roose because he can only skin-change into his blood offspring, but this particular heir is not of his body. But then along comes Ramsey, who Roose instantly knows to be his merely by looking at his eyes. So when Rams kills Dom, all Roose has to do is legitimize him and then wait for the right time to take over his body -- and this is a double-win for Roose because now he stands to become Lord of Winterfell.

This isn't to say that Roose might not have ruled in Winterfell before. Remember the story of Brandon Ice-Eyes, who threw the slavers out of White Harbor? That was probably Roose. In fact, if the Song of Ice and Fire is about blood magic, and the Fire component is Targaryen blood, then the Ice component would be Stark blood inherited by Roose way back in the Age of Heroes. And both bloodlines, and thus the Song of Ice and Fire, are now present in one person.

People call this the Bolt-on Theory or Vampire Roose, but it's really a bit more nuanced than that. The main driver is that I cannot think of any reason why even the most hateful, despicable lord would not only shrug his shoulders over the fact that his bastard has killed his heir -- an heir that had all the makings of becoming a champion jouster who would do nothing but bring honor and glory to House Bolton -- but then reward that bastard with honors and titles.

So as I said, I have no proof. All I'll suggest is that in the next two books, watch for Roose to die and then see if Ramsey doesn't start speaking in whispers and leeching himself.

I'm not a big "Bolt-on" fan myself. In not suggesting this will unravel the whole argument but if he is leeching himself so the blood wont congeal this means that he is dead. The problem with this is that his body wont keep producing fresh blood after he is dead so he would have stopped leeching himself centuries ago when he leeched every pint from his body. Plus this would leave the guy marble white and nobody would miss that. Even the palest nerd to ever live in a basement isnt so pale as a blood-drained corpse.

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On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 11:18 AM, divica said:

Ok. lets assume mance is working alone.

So wyman went to winterfell to form an aliance with the northern houses there and check if arya was really there but not to save her?

We have to assume wyman suspects she is fake because mors is checking her identity. On the other hand wyman left winterfell without trying to save arya so that wasn t really his objective?

And if mance really thinks stannis is at the walls then what is his plan? hide in the cripts? also escape to stannis somehow? Or do you think it will be related to something magical? like the horn of joramun or there must always be a stark in winterfell?

 

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

Exactly. I still don't see how we got to the idea that Mors, Wyman or anybody else knows this is really Mance.

And it seems that if the northern lords are conspiring to rid Winterfell of Boltons, then that would involve killing both Roose and Ramsey, after which they won't have any reason to "rescue" fArya because she will be a widow, freed from the Boltons. She isn't likely to keep insisting that she is Arya at this point, and since her story of being forced into this charade or die is plausible, I don't see any repercussions for her.

It does seem that Bran is meeting many of these people for the first time during Clash. If this is the case, this is a huge error on Ned's part. His bannermen should have made regular pilgrimages to Winterfell to renew fealty vows and discuss matters of state, and simply to make sure that when somebody shows up at your gates claiming to be this lord or that lord, they are really who they say they are.

But I disagree that Arya would not generate much interest. She is one of the few ways in which a lesser house can improve its status, so every lord who meets her would take a very keen interest in her, as with all of the Stark children.

And as I said above, the main objective is to rid Winterfell of Boltons, so once that is accomplished there is no need to "rescue" fArya even if they do know she is fake.

She clearly hates Ramsey. She wouldn't allow him or any of his men into Barrow Hall. Regardless of whether she truly hates Starks, though, her little trip to the crypts was exactly what someone needed if they were attempting to get into Winterfell through a secret passage down there.

My theory as to why Roose is so lax about Ramsey is highly complex and speculative (you can search for it elsewhere on this board), but Lady D sums it up best:

"This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys. Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings."

 

 

I agree with the bolded as my reasoning on Manderlys actions.  (F)Arya, whether he knows she is fake or not is not his primary concern.

As to Mances plan I believe he would have gone over the wall with them or snuck out as a manderly/frey in disguise or something.  I personally think his plan got screwed by the big walder little walder murder because Roose specifically orders him to the front of the hall and to start playing because of the trouble that had been caused.  That is the situation when the spearwives and Theon make their move.  What happens to him when the alarm is sounded is anyone's guess.  He would not have had much time but he cold have potentially snuck out, hid, our been grabbed.  Given everything that follows though in the pink letter I believe he was caught.

Edited by aryagonnakill#2

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5 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

 

I agree with the bolded as my reasoning on Manderlys actions.  (F)Arya, whether he knows she is fake or not is not his primary concern.

As to Mances plan I believe he would have gone over the wall with them or snuck out as a manderly/frey in disguise or something.  I personally think his plan got screwed by the big walder little walder murder because Roose specifically orders him to the front of the hall and to start playing because of the trouble that had been caused.  That is the situation when the spearwives and Theon make their move.  What happens to him when the alarm is sounded is anyone's guess.  He would not have had much time but he cold have potentially snuck out, hid, our been grabbed.  Given everything that follows though in the pink letter I believe he was caught.

I was a believer that mance wrote the pink letter. However when he leaves the Wall he thinks the weeper is going to attack soon. He doesn t know jon sends val to get tormund...

So he has no reason to believe there might be an army of wildlings United with the watch... So sending that letter to jon accomplishes nothing for him. Jon would simply send val, monster, selyse, etc away and open the doors of catle black when people came to get them. If I have my timeline right (and I think I do) then the mance sent the PL makes no sense.

I think the only explanation possible is that either ramsay or Bolton sent the letter after torturing mance and want jon to send them hostages against stannis and against mance because they want to use him for something. Based on the information mance has on the Wall some people might think jon would have to send them what they want because he can t stand against them.

 

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

OK, since you've asked, I'll spell it out here, but let me say at the start that this is highly speculative, so please don't insist that I prove any of this. We'll just have to wait and see.

I have finally found out what roose should do! And it is very simple!

He just has to take all the people in winterfell and the food and go to the dreadfort and let a cavalary close by.

Stannis has no horses and no food. So if attempts a desperate march somewhere then wait for a while and use the cavalry to attack him and run away several times. 

I think roose could win if he does this because the northern houses wouldn t know the freys were defeated.

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11 hours ago, divica said:

I was a believer that mance wrote the pink letter. However when he leaves the Wall he thinks the weeper is going to attack soon. He doesn t know jon sends val to get tormund...

So he has no reason to believe there might be an army of wildlings United with the watch... So sending that letter to jon accomplishes nothing for him. Jon would simply send val, monster, selyse, etc away and open the doors of catle black when people came to get them. If I have my timeline right (and I think I do) then the mance sent the PL makes no sense.

I think the only explanation possible is that either ramsay or Bolton sent the letter after torturing mance and want jon to send them hostages against stannis and against mance because they want to use him for something. Based on the information mance has on the Wall some people might think jon would have to send them what they want because he can t stand against them.

 

I'm glad you think that way about the pink letter.  I've been in very heated debates about it and that has always been my position.  Means motive opportunity, Mance has no motive.

If you think about it the pink letter makes perfect sense from multiple angles, but only if it was sent by Roose/Ramsay.  They think they know that they won't be able to beat Theon/(F)Arya to the wall, so they have a big problem in that Jon can out them to the entire north/all of Westeros.  By letting Jon know they have Mance, they are letting him know that they can also out him as a traitor, so there is an element of you keep quiet and we keep quiet.

There is also the fact that even after Stannis' supposed defeat(I believe he was victorious but has fooled them into thinking otherwise) the Boltons ability to actually take Castle Black if it puts up a defense is highly questionable.  While there is no outer wall it is still a series of towers and we saw them defend it pretty well against the wildlings.  There is also the matter of getting there.  Marching thousands of troops hundreds of miles through a blizzard at the outset of winter is generally a terrible idea.  It is a logistical nightmare, horses would be dropping dead like flies and since your moving slowly you require more supplies.

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13 hours ago, Buddhakin said:

I'm not a big "Bolt-on" fan myself. In not suggesting this will unravel the whole argument but if he is leeching himself so the blood wont congeal this means that he is dead. The problem with this is that his body wont keep producing fresh blood after he is dead so he would have stopped leeching himself centuries ago when he leeched every pint from his body. Plus this would leave the guy marble white and nobody would miss that. Even the palest nerd to ever live in a basement isnt so pale as a blood-drained corpse.

He's only half-dead, or undead, or whatever, so his blood congeals more slowly than a completely dead body. This is also why he is not completely white, just pale enough that people notice it but chalk it up to the frequent leechings.

11 hours ago, divica said:

I have finally found out what roose should do! And it is very simple!

He just has to take all the people in winterfell and the food and go to the dreadfort and let a cavalary close by.

Stannis has no horses and no food. So if attempts a desperate march somewhere then wait for a while and use the cavalry to attack him and run away several times. 

I think roose could win if he does this because the northern houses wouldn t know the freys were defeated.

Give up Winterfell? I'm not so sure about this. The northern lords have cavalry too, plus shoes and horses capable of dealing with the snow. So even if Stannis is mostly on foot, that means he still gains the most fortified castle in the realm without a fight while Roose is struggling through the waist-deep snow with wagons and waynes full of food. Even if he does make it back to the Dreadfort, he is in a less defensible position with no means of support and no chance of rescue by either the Freys or the Lannisters.

As @Buddhakin said above, no matter what happens, House Bolton is screwed: the northern lords will never accept the current Ramsey as their lord, so he is as good as dead. With Tywin dead, the Lannisters are in shambles, and the same will be true of the Freys when old Walder dies, so he will have no allies backing him, and yet Roose is as calm as a cucumber about all this. Why? Because he doesn't expect to be a Bolton much longer.

He fully expects to defeat Stannis in the field, after which Roose will die and the Other-creature that has been inhabiting that body will switch to Ramsey and father a child on Jeyne. Ramsey will no longer be the mad dog that he was, so he could defuse the tension with the northern lords, perhaps even removing himself to the DF while the child is raised by wards, and then in two decades or so -- which is the blink of an eye to Roose -- switch into the child's body and become Lord of Winterfell.

That glimpse of fear that Theon noticed during the dust-up following Big Walder's death? That was the first sign of real emotion we've seen from Roose, and it indicates that maybe this plan is not working out so well after all.

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3 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I'm glad you think that way about the pink letter.  I've been in very heated debates about it and that has always been my position.  Means motive opportunity, Mance has no motive.

If you think about it the pink letter makes perfect sense from multiple angles, but only if it was sent by Roose/Ramsay.  They think they know that they won't be able to beat Theon/(F)Arya to the wall, so they have a big problem in that Jon can out them to the entire north/all of Westeros.  By letting Jon know they have Mance, they are letting him know that they can also out him as a traitor, so there is an element of you keep quiet and we keep quiet.

There is also the fact that even after Stannis' supposed defeat(I believe he was victorious but has fooled them into thinking otherwise) the Boltons ability to actually take Castle Black if it puts up a defense is highly questionable.  While there is no outer wall it is still a series of towers and we saw them defend it pretty well against the wildlings.  There is also the matter of getting there.  Marching thousands of troops hundreds of miles through a blizzard at the outset of winter is generally a terrible idea.  It is a logistical nightmare, horses would be dropping dead like flies and since your moving slowly you require more supplies.

You are forgeting that the letter says everybody knows that mance didn t really burn. So the north knows that STANNIS lied. It wasn t jon that burned mance and the umbers know that... And as we saw in one of jon chapters he knows he has to send arya to one of the free cities so he wouldn t keep her with him to prove to the north she is fake.

And with good preparations I don t know if manny horses would die in a march... In addition, by sending that letter he is giving jon more time to send people away. I think it is a desperate gamble by roose to win some hostages. Even the problems with the letter can maybe be explained because ramsay tortured mance and skinned the sperwives but the rest roose had to lie about. In adition, He signed it as ramsay because only ramsay would would attack the Wall. And if jon told the other northern lords that roose sent that letter roose would lose support.

Hell, someone as scheeming as roose might have planned the whole attack on jon. Lets assume that tormund's wildlings aren t there and the weeper is preparing an attack (as roose thinks). By sending that letter, when jon tells his brothers that ramsay is going to attack if they don t give all that people but he refuses to give them (because he is a good lad and the watch doesn t take sides) roose would know that some brothers would attack jon and send him his hostages because they are cowards.

So ramsay only has to march some miles in the direction of the Wall, get his hostages and then threaten stannis. This would be brillant.

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3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He's only half-dead, or undead, or whatever, so his blood congeals more slowly than a completely dead body. This is also why he is not completely white, just pale enough that people notice it but chalk it up to the frequent leechings.

Give up Winterfell? I'm not so sure about this. The northern lords have cavalry too, plus shoes and horses capable of dealing with the snow. So even if Stannis is mostly on foot, that means he still gains the most fortified castle in the realm without a fight while Roose is struggling through the waist-deep snow with wagons and waynes full of food. Even if he does make it back to the Dreadfort, he is in a less defensible position with no means of support and no chance of rescue by either the Freys or the Lannisters.

As @Buddhakin said above, no matter what happens, House Bolton is screwed: the northern lords will never accept the current Ramsey as their lord, so he is as good as dead. With Tywin dead, the Lannisters are in shambles, and the same will be true of the Freys when old Walder dies, so he will have no allies backing him, and yet Roose is as calm as a cucumber about all this. Why? Because he doesn't expect to be a Bolton much longer.

He fully expects to defeat Stannis in the field, after which Roose will die and the Other-creature that has been inhabiting that body will switch to Ramsey and father a child on Jeyne. Ramsey will no longer be the mad dog that he was, so he could defuse the tension with the northern lords, perhaps even removing himself to the DF while the child is raised by wards, and then in two decades or so -- which is the blink of an eye to Roose -- switch into the child's body and become Lord of Winterfell.

That glimpse of fear that Theon noticed during the dust-up following Big Walder's death? That was the first sign of real emotion we've seen from Roose, and it indicates that maybe this plan is not working out so well after all.

Do think he really expects to defeat stannis in the field? Even without the ice trap I don t know... He must know that the manderleys and freys won t get to stannis without attacking each other in the road. So as there are onle 300 manerleys I think it is obvious they are going to hide themselves.

Then we know that the freys have half of stannis numbers. Even if they are mounted stannis would have made some fortifications to nulify the effects of the horses... I think the freys were always doomed, but roose expected them to bleed stannis. Or he had some good plan involving the karstarks... 

And if the freys are defeated and he stays in winterfell roose is doomed. Even he must know that the northern lords in winterfell won t fight against stannis that is fighting for the starks (he got fArya) and that most of them hate the boltons anyway... Someone would betray him in a critical attack and winterfell would fall. That is why I think retreating is a good idea. He keeps the northern lords away from stannis and creates more dificulties for stannis that is really lacking food.

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2 hours ago, divica said:

Do think he really expects to defeat stannis in the field? Even without the ice trap I don t know... He must know that the manderleys and freys won t get to stannis without attacking each other in the road. So as there are onle 300 manerleys I think it is obvious they are going to hide themselves.

Then we know that the freys have half of stannis numbers. Even if they are mounted stannis would have made some fortifications to nulify the effects of the horses... I think the freys were always doomed, but roose expected them to bleed stannis. Or he had some good plan involving the karstarks... 

And if the freys are defeated and he stays in winterfell roose is doomed. Even he must know that the northern lords in winterfell won t fight against stannis that is fighting for the starks (he got fArya) and that most of them hate the boltons anyway... Someone would betray him in a critical attack and winterfell would fall. That is why I think retreating is a good idea. He keeps the northern lords away from stannis and creates more dificulties for stannis that is really lacking food.

I think that look of panic during the fight in the great hall was the first sign that Roose sees his plan unravelling. Before that, I dunno, maybe he planned on dispatching the Manderly force before they could switch sides, and then take on Stannis and Co. with Dreadfor/Frey men. It's hard to say whether he expects to count on the Dustins, Ryswells etc.

Mounted troops aren't highly effective in waist-deep snow, so if the Freys attempt a cavalry charge, yeah, they'd be doomed. But Stannis' southron forces aren't terribly affective either, so the fight will likely come down to Dreadfort men vs. the northern clans. I think the Dreadfort may have an edge in numbers but the clans are more used to fighting in these kinds of conditions, so I would give the advantage to the clans.

And, yes, I think if Stannis defeats Roose's army, plus the fact that Roose no longer has fArya, then he has no choice but to flee -- perhaps even abandoning Ramsey and falling back to the Twins with Fat Walda to produce another heir for him to flay.

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23 hours ago, divica said:

You are forgeting that the letter says everybody knows that mance didn t really burn. So the north knows that STANNIS lied. It wasn t jon that burned mance and the umbers know that... And as we saw in one of jon chapters he knows he has to send arya to one of the free cities so he wouldn t keep her with him to prove to the north she is fake.

And with good preparations I don t know if manny horses would die in a march... In addition, by sending that letter he is giving jon more time to send people away. I think it is a desperate gamble by roose to win some hostages. Even the problems with the letter can maybe be explained because ramsay tortured mance and skinned the sperwives but the rest roose had to lie about. In adition, He signed it as ramsay because only ramsay would would attack the Wall. And if jon told the other northern lords that roose sent that letter roose would lose support.

Hell, someone as scheeming as roose might have planned the whole attack on jon. Lets assume that tormund's wildlings aren t there and the weeper is preparing an attack (as roose thinks). By sending that letter, when jon tells his brothers that ramsay is going to attack if they don t give all that people but he refuses to give them (because he is a good lad and the watch doesn t take sides) roose would know that some brothers would attack jon and send him his hostages because they are cowards.

So ramsay only has to march some miles in the direction of the Wall, get his hostages and then threaten stannis. This would be brillant.

The threat against Jon is not killing Mance or a lack thereof, its sending Mance down to WF to interfere with the realm, the one thing the NW can't do is interfere with the realm.

Roose may already be dead at Ramsays hand by the time of the letter.

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On 1/8/2018 at 11:12 AM, Buddhakin said:

True story. Ive played with the idea that Roose has promised Lady Dustin that Ramsay will die after he produces a heir with fArya. It is in everyones best interest if Ramsay goes away and Roose has to know that the North will never bow to his children with Fat Walda because the North won't support any Frey after the Red Wedding but Roose is very concerned withRamsay marrying and reproducing ASAP, before Ramsay can ruin any of his alliances.

I agree that Roose is waiting for Ramsay to father a child on fArya. However, what Roose plans is to have his child with Fat Walda as the heir to the Dreadford and Ramsay's child with fArya as the heir to Winterfell. Then as regent to Ramsay's child, he controls two of the castles.

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