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What if Tywin had Tommen marry Sansa?

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Tywin will control the north through Tyrion first, then his son, who will be the undisputed Lord of Winterfell. This is how it is done. It is how the Tyrells, and the Gardners before them, maintain their status as the single most powerful house in the region -- through their extensive inter-marriages with the Redwynes and Hightowers.

With first his son, then his grandson, seated at Winterfell, Tywin will control, through marriage alliances -- a contiguous block that connects the north, the riverlands, the westerlands, the crownlands and the stormlands -- easily more than half the realm. House Lannister will be the most powerful house in the realm, able to field armies that dwarf any other house, including the Tyrells.

As for Littlefinger, he needs to have Sansa free of any marriage entanglements, since, if she is still married, she is of no use to anyone. So while his motivation for killing Tyrion remains strong, he still needs to murder Tommen, and he is smart enough to realize that the Tyrells do too.

In other words, you've got nothing.

Neither Tyrion nor Tommen will be undisputed Lord of Winterfell.   Designated Lord, perhaps, but I would expect plenty of Northerners happy to dispute it with them.  As for any son Sansa might have, his accession to the title is at least 20 years away, by which time Tywin will likely be dead of old age, and the situation could be much changed.

As for marriage alliances, those work both ways.  The alliance between the Tullys and Starks helped fan the fires.  The Starks had a marriage alliance (a pretty strong one) with the Vale - and see where that got them.  And Tyrion and Tywin hate each other - they may or may not give effective assistance when asked.  And Sansa hates Lannisters.  If she can influence Tommen, Tywin might have problems.

The Tyrells and Lannisters are closely allied at the moment - both militarily and through marriage - Joffrey/Margaery.  No reason for the Tyrells to be sufficiently worried to commit murder.  Certainly not yet - at least of Tommen, or even Tyrion.  As for Joffrey, they have been given enough information to reasonably believe he is a threat to both Margaery and the realm. 

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19 hours ago, Nevets said:

In other words, you've got nothing.

Neither Tyrion nor Tommen will be undisputed Lord of Winterfell.   Designated Lord, perhaps, but I would expect plenty of Northerners happy to dispute it with them.  As for any son Sansa might have, his accession to the title is at least 20 years away, by which time Tywin will likely be dead of old age, and the situation could be much changed.

As for marriage alliances, those work both ways.  The alliance between the Tullys and Starks helped fan the fires.  The Starks had a marriage alliance (a pretty strong one) with the Vale - and see where that got them.  And Tyrion and Tywin hate each other - they may or may not give effective assistance when asked.  And Sansa hates Lannisters.  If she can influence Tommen, Tywin might have problems.

The Tyrells and Lannisters are closely allied at the moment - both militarily and through marriage - Joffrey/Margaery.  No reason for the Tyrells to be sufficiently worried to commit murder.  Certainly not yet - at least of Tommen, or even Tyrion.  As for Joffrey, they have been given enough information to reasonably believe he is a threat to both Margaery and the realm. 

Tyrion and/or Tommen will both rule as lords regent of Winterfell, and either of their sons will rule as the undisputed Lord of Winterfell. Tyrion, and I would expect Tommen, can both be expected to rule with a fair hand, building loyalty over time. But sure, they may or may not be able to gain substantial support for any immediate warring to the south. This is an existential threat, not an immediate one.

20 years is a blink of an eye when we are talking about noble dynasties that date back centuries. Whether Tywin is alive or dead is irrelevant because the power will reside in Casterly Rock, and throughout the ages CR has been a weaker, largely benign neighbor to the north. All of that has been upended in the past 20 years, and Lady Olenna knows that if Highgarden expects to remain secure for her descendants then Casterly Rock must not be allowed to become the new hegemon. She is playing the Game of Thrones, the struggle for power in the realm. Highgarden is diminishing while CR is ascending, and this wedding, right here and right now, is her only opportunity put the brakes on this trend by killing the man who would put Tywin's grandson in the high seat at Winterfell.

The Tyrell/Gardner-Hightower-Redwyne family has maintained Highgarden's hegemony in the region for literally thousands of years. If future Lords of the Rock have the wits the gods gave a goose they will reinforce their marriages to Starks, Freys, Baratheons and anyone else to maintain their power. Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but Lady Olenna knows that if she can remove Tyrion now, then the north, at least, will not fall under Lannister influence for some time, if ever.

The Tyrells and Lannisters are sitting on an extremely fragile alliance at best. How could you possibly argue that there is no reason for the Tyrells to commit murder and in the next breath say they did exactly that by murdering the king no less and throwing the alliance into jeopardy? This is a marriage of convenience for both houses, and the smart people in the realm know this.

And talk about having nothing. What information do the Tyrells have that Joffrey is a threat to either Margaery or the realm? Please show me the text where either Lady O or Margaery exhibit even the slightest bit of concern about Joffrey. Please show me the text where Joffrey exhibits even the slightest hostility toward Margaery. Please show me the text that even provides a plausible reason why Joffrey would want to hurt Margaery. I can show you the text that demonstrates the exact opposite for all three counts.

And in what way is the realm in jeopardy? Because Joffrey beheaded a traitor lord and gave his daughter a few bruises? Please. This is the house that supported the Mad King to the bitter end and beyond, and he was roasting high lords in their armor with wildfire while their sons struggled to save them, killing themselves. Joffrey is the fulfilment of a decade-long quest to put a Tyrell on the Iron Throne. Even if he did have a mind to give Margaery a beating, big deal. Plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns. And if this were to become unbearable for Margaery, then there are plenty of ways to get rid of Joffrey that don't require poisoning him in front of a thousand witnesses at a time when your entire extended family save one is surrounded by Lannister guards. And by then, of course, Margaery will be Queen Mother to the crown prince and would rule as regent until he comes of age. So not only is there no reason for them to want Joffrey dead, there is certainly no reason to do it now when all they have to do is wait a little while, see if a problem actually develops, and then take full control of the most powerful political weapon in the realm, all for themselves.

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