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Catalan thread continued


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Just in the news: PSOE calls for a vote of no confidence on Rajoy. Ciudadanos demands a snap election or they will back the vote of no confidence (totally called it :P). This spells the end of Rajoy's government. The only problem is that it might lead to a Ciudadanos government backed grudgingly by PP (which would be the worst of both worlds :unsure:).

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19 hours ago, Mentat said:

There seems to be hope yet. Yesterday the Audiencia Nacional (one of the highest Spanish courts, and also one that has been consistently criticized by Catalan independence supporters for being in cahoots with the Government after the imprisonment of the two Jordis) decreed a devastating sentence against the PP for the Gürtel corruption racket with very long prison sentences and an explicit declaration that the PP was complicit and benefited from it and that it had been running shadow account books. PSOE has said that they'll be moving for a vote of no confidence against Rajoy, and Ciudadanos might just back them (probably on the condition of general elections being held immediately after).

That's definitely good news.

Although... I do wonder if the mystery of who are "M.Rajoy" and D.Cospedal" will be resolved or not from that "spinoff" of Gürtel's case  (Bárcenas' case). :rolleyes: In English, information of those cases. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gürtel_case

For those who don't know about the case in regards to "M.Rajoy", a Spanish newspaper published alleged images of excerpts of handwritten accounts from Rajoy's party with those "names". 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-corruption/spain-corruption-scandal-turns-up-heat-on-pm-rajoy-idUSBRE90U0DD20130131

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Last time that Rajoy went to court for this issue many of the questions were just apparently "not appropiate" ("no pertinente" in Spanish), so he didn't have to respond :).

Anyone interested, here there is a video of that day with Spanish subtitles...

 

As for PSOE; well, let's say that they should have done that a long long time ago... (for instance after the incidents of the 1st of October... or well, they could have pacted with Podemos in 2016)

better now than never I guess.

 

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Rajoy will let the Catalan's form a government provided it's composed of 'clean' candidates. In fact I'd argue Rajoy very much wants the Catalans to form a government and cease regional intervention. It's in his best interest. The problem is Torrà wanted to appoint to people in prison and two people in self-imposed exile with an arrest warrant pending to his government. Rajoy (more or less understandably) put his foot down. To me it's pretty clear that Torrà was looking for this exact outcome.

And I agree he'd probably cease the intervention if that happened.

However, the problem is that he should not say who is to be a Catalan minister or not, but the President of Catalonia.

In fact, just today, the lawyers of the Catalan Parliament have just said that Rajoy has to permit the nomination of the Catalan ministers.

 

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The legal counsel of these politicians appointed to the government have consistently stated that these appointments are unlikely to help their case come the trial.

Yes, probably.

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As I said as well, I don't give any credence to these offers of dialogue. I think they're political posturing (on both sides) so as not to be seen as intransigent. I'm not even sure how much authority Torrà has to reach some kind of a deal if he really wanted to. Although he is president, it's been made clear that his is an interim government with the main goal of restoring Puigdemont.

I  respectfully disagree with the first bolded. I for one think that we should see what could happen in case the Spanish Government agreed on having them. Maybe they'd respect that Spain would be willing to talk, and both sides could agree on some things to deescalate the conflict.

As for the second bolded, I think that indeed, this is the main goal.

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The Statute that was repealed by the TC couldn't be passed again without a prior modification of the Constitution (because it would be just as unconstitutional the second time round...). The TC jurisprudence would stand. So just modify the Constitution... I would be totally in favor of that.

The Basque situation is complicated. On the one hand they managed to wangle a privileged economic deal into the Constitution (which almost everyone outside of the Basque agree is unfair, but is a political powder keg that no one dares touch), but on the other they're (currently) pretty lawful. PNV is letting the Catalan conflict play out, giving lip service to the Catalans (but as we just saw, falling short of real support). 

The ECJ can certainly help with civil rights issues in an appeal (though this will take some time).

Yes, but how is it gonna be modified? It just can't be modified considering the number of Catalan (and Basques) representatives in the Spanish Parliament. It's a minority because they just represent two autonomous communities (albeit being "nationalities" in the Constitution) of a total of 17. They represent...a 10%? It's not that they've not tried this before... 

And regardless of that, it is still real that the Spanish Parliament voted favourably to the Statute that had been approved in Catalonia in a referendum. Some sectors just couldn't stand a little bit more of autonomy to Catalonia even after two Parliaments (Catalan and Spanish) voting YES , or the word "Nation" in a Preface. That's why the Constituional Court had to be "called".

The other day PNV was also moving towards a new Statute for them in which they say the Basque Country will be a Nation, have the right of self-determination, and that the Basque Country will never be able to be ceased with a 155, amongst other things. Of course, this is just a draft, but isn't that completely unconstitutional right now as well? I wonder how this will end for them now.

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On 5/26/2018 at 3:46 AM, Meera of Tarth said:

That's definitely good news.

It is! I don't think it's all that likely Rajoy and Cospedal will have to face eventual prison sentences, but I think Rajoy's political career is very likely finished (and Cospedal's may be too, though I'm less sure about that).

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As for PSOE; well, let's say that they should have done that a long long time ago... (for instance after the incidents of the 1st of October... or well, they could have pacted with Podemos in 2016) better now than never I guess.

1-O really wasn't that big a deal for PSOE. I can't remember exactly what they said after the fact, but criticism of the government and police was lukewarm. PSOE tried to make things work in 2016, but they just didn't have the numbers. A pact with Podemos would have alienated Ciudadanos (who was by far their preferred partner) and required an alliance with all the nationalist forces, who were at the time demanding an independence referendum be allowed in order to support them. I'd have to look at back issues of newspapers, but I think some sort of negotiation was attempted but quickly fell apart.

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And I agree he'd probably cease the intervention if that happened.

However, the problem is that he should not say who is to be a Catalan minister or not, but the President of Catalonia.

In fact, just today, the lawyers of the Catalan Parliament have just said that Rajoy has to permit the nomination of the Catalan ministers.

I agree it's up to Torrà, and I think legally the Catalan Parliament's lawyers have the right of it.

That said, it's definitely not in the best interest of either the People of Catalonia or the Catalan Parliament. A regional minister cannot perform their job from prison (in Spain, people who are in jailed have very limited computer access) and a regional minister cannot stand before parliament to account for their actions if they're in self-imposed exile (and as wonderful as Skype is, their abilities to perform as a politician would be seriously impaired). Torrà knows this perfectly well, and is just seeking to increase political tension. He should nominate someone else (and simply reshuffle his cabinet if or when these people become available).

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I  respectfully disagree with the first bolded. I for one think that we should see what could happen in case the Spanish Government agreed on having them. Maybe they'd respect that Spain would be willing to talk, and both sides could agree on some things to deescalate the conflict.

And I respect your opinions... but yes, we're going to have to disagree on this one. If Torrà truly wanted to strike some kind of deal with Spain (which I don't believe) and actually had the authority to do so personally (which I question) he would nominate a 'clean' government (Rajoy's only condition for dialogue... though as I said I don't trust his offer any more than I trust Torrà's) and have some kind of political proposal beyond building the Catalan republic.

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Yes, but how is it gonna be modified? It just can't be modified considering the number of Catalan (and Basques) representatives in the Spanish Parliament. It's a minority because they just represent two autonomous communities (albeit being "nationalities" in the Constitution) of a total of 17. They represent...a 10%? It's not that they've not tried this before... 

And regardless of that, it is still real that the Spanish Parliament voted favourably to the Statute that had been approved in Catalonia in a referendum. Some sectors just couldn't stand a little bit more of autonomy to Catalonia even after two Parliaments (Catalan and Spanish) voting YES , or the word "Nation" in a Preface. That's why the Constituional Court had to be "called".

The whole of the Spanish left supports modifying it. It can be modified in a number of ways, and gaining the needed political consensus would be hard, but it's not impossible. In Spain, the parliament can't pass laws or regulations that don't abide by the Constitution, but if they have the required majority, they can modify the Constitution to say whatever they need it to.

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On 5/28/2018 at 9:00 AM, Mentat said:

It is! I don't think it's all that likely Rajoy and Cospedal will have to face eventual prison sentences, but I think Rajoy's political career is very likely finished (and Cospedal's may be too, though I'm less sure about that).

I don't think they will...and I doubt that the vote of no confidence will catch on. Very difficult. It's this Friday, right?

How does it work? Why are Ciudadanos saying that they prefer elections? Isn't that procedure the consequence of a vote of no confidence? (So then, if they say they will vote "No", makes no sense for them to announce they prefer elections basically because these can't be called)?

I don't know how this works, exactly.

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9 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

I don't think they will...and I doubt that the vote of no confidence will catch on. Very difficult. It's this Friday, right?

How does it work? Why are Ciudadanos saying that they prefer elections? Isn't that procedure the consequence of a vote of no confidence? (So then, if they say they will vote "No", makes no sense for them to announce they prefer elections basically because these can't be called)?

I don't know how this works, exactly.

A vote of no confidence in Spain needs an alternative candidate attached to it, so if it succeeds this new candidate becomes president and replaces whoever is in office and lost the vote of no confidence. The president can't call for elections while there's a vote of no confidence pending. That's the way it works.

Pedro Sánchez is standing as alternative candidate. Ciudadanos has said they'd support the vote of no confidence if the alternative candidate was an unaffiliated person tasked solely with dissolving parliament and calling new elections. Pedro Sánchez has refused, saying he intends to govern if he wins.

I think the vote of no confidence is unlikely to succeed, but Ciudadanos has already stated it will support the government no longer, so even if it fails, the likelihood of Rajoy dissolving the parliament, standing down and calling for elections is high (it's what all the Spanish newspapers are pressuring him to do).

The debate for the vote of no confidence will happen tomorrow, and the vote itself will be held on Friday.

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On recent news: Quim Torrà has decided to reshuffle his proposed cabinet and get rid of people with judicial entanglements. This means Catalonia will have an effective government and the regional intervention will end. Good news in my view.

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On 5/30/2018 at 8:18 AM, Mentat said:

A vote of no confidence in Spain needs an alternative candidate attached to it, so if it succeeds this new candidate becomes president and replaces whoever is in office and lost the vote of no confidence. The president can't call for elections while there's a vote of no confidence pending. That's the way it works.

Pedro Sánchez is standing as alternative candidate. Ciudadanos has said they'd support the vote of no confidence if the alternative candidate was an unaffiliated person tasked solely with dissolving parliament and calling new elections. Pedro Sánchez has refused, saying he intends to govern if he wins.

I think the vote of no confidence is unlikely to succeed, but Ciudadanos has already stated it will support the government no longer, so even if it fails, the likelihood of Rajoy dissolving the parliament, standing down and calling for elections is high (it's what all the Spanish newspapers are pressuring him to do).

The debate for the vote of no confidence will happen tomorrow, and the vote itself will be held on Friday.

And....Rajoy will be out tomorrow, and Pedro Sánchez from PSOE will be the new President.

Unless Rajoy resigns and another member of PP (VicePresident Sáenz de Santamaría) is proposed, but they say that's not gonna happen.

PNV has got everything, in the end. :dunno: I was wondering what they'd vote, but considering that everyone else except Ciudadanos voted No....this was their only choice.

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And now Torra said that he thought that he Proposal of a New Catalan Statute in Spain from the "Cercle d'Economia" was interesting. Maybe with this and a new President of Spain things could actually de-escalate a little bit?

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Indeed, it looks like the vote of no confidence will pass today. I wasn't expecting this at all, as Pedro Sánchez has barely negotiated anything with the amalgam of different parties that will support his bid for presidency. It really looks like a vote to kick Rajoy out whatever it takes, with very little thought about what comes next.

I would have thought elections will be held some time next year at the latest, and sincerely doubt that Pedro Sánchez will be able to coalesce the very diverse political forces that have helped him oust Rajoy into a coherent parliamentary majority... but we'll have to see.

Sánchez and Iglesias should be much better interlocutors than Rajoy for Torrà (Sánchez recently said that the Catalan statute was a problem in its current form and that some way had to be found to make it representative of the will of the Catalans). If Torrà is willing to let the independence referendum go and settle for something less (a new, better Statute and improved regional financing) he'll definitely find open ears (and he could ditch the CUP to form a majority with PSC and Units Podem).

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  • 1 month later...

Given the recent news, I thought it was appropiate to keep this thread up to date.

The Members of the ex-Government of Catalonia in preventive jail have been moved to a Catalan prison.

Puigdemont will not be extradited for rebellion, since the German judges don't see that there was rebellion the 1st of October, contrarily to the Spanish one. Scotland will say something in August.

However, Puigdemont could be extradited for misappropiation of public funds.

This means that theoretically, the ex-Members of the Catalan Government in jail will probably face 30 years of prison, while Puigdemont and the others currently living in other countries might face 5 or less for the same actions.

 

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The misappropriation of public funds is still so ridiculous when even Rajoy said this isn't true :dunno:

Anyway, it still makes me sick to know that in the EU still people are being jailed for their political ideas. 

But what can you else expect from institution whose leader appears being drunk over and over again during major events ... Jucker is really a metaphor for the current state in the EU.

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7 minutes ago, Tijgy said:

The misappropriation of public funds is still so ridiculous when even Rajoy said this isn't true :dunno:

Anyway, it still makes me sick to know that in the EU still people are being jailed for their political ideas. 

But what can you else expect from institution whose leader appears being drunk over and over again during major events ... Jucker is really a metaphor for the current state in the EU.

Oh yes I agree with that.

Apparently today they sad that Llarena, the Spanish judge, might change his mind about the extradition of Puigdemont if it's only for the funds.

 

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15 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Puigdemont will not be extradited for rebellion, since the German judges don't see that there was rebellion the 1st of October, contrarily to the Spanish one.

That's not true. The question wether it was rebellion or not can only be decided under Spanish jurisdiction. Consequently, the German judges didn't say anything on the rebellion charges except that for those charges there is no comparable criminal offense in Germany. Which simply means that Germany cannot extradite for charges of a crime, that doesn't exist here. Which means that if Spain wants the extradition, they cannot accuse him of rebellion. And that means that the legal question (was it rebellion under Spanish law) will not be answered in the case of Puigdemont.

The question is: will Spain insist on extradition? Or will they just wait until Puigdemont leaves Germany to a country that will extradite for rebellion (that would probably require some patience, but it would very effectively take out Puigdemont for a long time, probably longer than any misappropriation charges).

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8 hours ago, Alarich II said:

That's not true. The question wether it was rebellion or not can only be decided under Spanish jurisdiction. Consequently, the German judges didn't say anything on the rebellion charges except that for those charges there is no comparable criminal offense in Germany. Which simply means that Germany cannot extradite for charges of a crime, that doesn't exist here. Which means that if Spain wants the extradition, they cannot accuse him of rebellion. And that means that the legal question (was it rebellion under Spanish law) will not be answered in the case of Puigdemont.

So then if there is extradition he can't be judged for rebellion while the the others who are in Spain in preventive jail apparently will, right? Possibly facing 30 years versus him facing nothing or just some? (I've read contradictory versions in several newspapers, all they seemed to agree that the charges are very different from rebellion, the maximum number of years I read for the funds' issue was 12 and the minimum zero).

(Sorry, that was what I was referring to).

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The question is: will Spain insist on extradition? Or will they just wait until Puigdemont leaves Germany to a country that will extradite for rebellion (that would probably require some patience, but it would very effectively take out Puigdemont for a long time, probably longer than any misappropriation charges).

So then the only possibility is that Puigdemont would travel to a country in which they decided that rebellion exists there and extradite him?

What if he is never extradited and remains, let's say in Belgium? Then the only possibility of facing prison I guess it is returning to Spain?

I don't know if they'll insist, they are probably thinking of which is the best way to make him go to prison, I suppose.

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2 minutes ago, Meera of Tarth said:

And now Llarena jas just decided that he won't extradite Puigdemont for the funds issue.....

Makes sense: That way he either he goes to trial for rebellion or he is exiled until the charges against him are dropped or statute-barred under Spanish law (don't know how long that may be). But for the time being, this means that as long as he doesn't (successfully) fight the rebellion charges in a Spanish court, he is pretty much removed from the political process for a much longer time than a conviction for misappropriation of public funds would.

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10 minutes ago, Alarich II said:

Makes sense: That way he either he goes to trial for rebellion or he is exiled until the charges against him are dropped or statute-barred under Spanish law (don't know how long that may be). But for the time being, this means that as long as he doesn't (successfully) fight the rebellion charges in a Spanish court, he is pretty much removed from the political process for a much longer time than a conviction for misappropriation of public funds would.

How could he be charged for rebellion? I guess that only would happen if there is a new EAW and this other country considers there has been rebellion, no?

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4 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

How could he be charged for rebellion? I guess that only would happen if there is a new EAW and this other country considers there has been rebellion, no?

They'd have to drop the rebellion charge to get him extradited. They prefer not to do that. Not having him extradited allows them to let the rebellion charge stand, which means he can't return to Spain for the foreseeable future. 

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