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Who would be the best King from the WoFK

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52 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

Also Stannis murdering his nephews and claiming the throne would likely be looked upon in history as just that because he wasn't a particularly likeable fellow anyway, he'll be the classic jealous evil uncle a few years down the line. If anyone has a chance of spinning usurping Joffrey in a good way it's Renly. 

No matter how Renly would spin it, it would be pretty much the same thing.

He wouldn't even try to spin it, in fact, because he didn't know and didn't acknowledge the incest.

Actually, it would look like Stannis tried to spin things better than Renly, with "some twincest story to at least try to justify his claim". 

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Just now, The Sunland Lord said:

No matter how Renly would spin it, it would be pretty much the same thing.

He wouldn't even try to spin it, in fact, because he didn't know and didn't acknowledge the incest.

Actually, it would look like Stannis tried to spin things better than Renly, with "some twincest story to at least try to justify his claim". 


I'm not saying that Renly would be able to make something good of it but I think he'd be able to offer some meagre justifications after the fact (evil counsellors, murder of Robert maybe even go with the illegitimacy angle etc) and still probably be more accepted simply because he's the gallant and dashing brother of the late king. People would likely choose to believe Stannis was lying based solely on the fact that they don't like him. In any case I don't think anyone's justifications will be going down in history as particularly good but Renly's would likely be easier to forget and forgive down the line simply because I think Stannis' reign would be one of constant friction between himself and his nobles and a general dislike of the king where the murder of his nephews is always in the mind of his people, reality is Renly's simply more agreeable and that goes a long way when getting over cunty things they've done, also Renly's probably going to get rid of Joffrey and his siblings in a more PR friendly way than Stannis will. 

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19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This is, in almost every way, wrong.

Did you actually read what he said? Renly, by the factor of being Robert's brother, has been given the Stormlands and sits on the Small Council, having one of the most influential potions in the realm. 

What more does he have to gain from Margaery being Queen? What benefits are the best friends of Jaime and Tyrion Lannister having that Renly is missing out on?

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

Look at it this way; we see throughout Robert's court that the dominating faction are the Lannisters.

Which is not actually true. The Hand's of the King have been Robert's two best friends, his brothers both hold hugely important roles on the Small Council, in fact there is not a single Westerland person who sits on the Small Council. And Tyrion's look into the positions that Littlefinger was responsible show that the Lannisters were not nearly as dominant as claimed. 

It is always important to look at who is making such a claim and Ned, bless him, is very clear on his prejudices on the Lannisters while having pretty much zero clue on how it should be. 

We have seen enough history to see that the entourage that the Queen for the last 18 years has had is not that unusual when you compare it to the Hightowers & Strongs under Viserys and his heir Rhaenyra, the Martells under Daeron II, the Tyrells under Tommen or the host of father of the consorts of Maegor and Aegon IV.

If the Lannisters were dominating, and it really does not appear that they were, it certainly was not by much given how well represented both the Stormlands and Vale were in Robert's government. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  Because of Cersei, Lannisters serve in important positions throughout the royal bureaucracy, and have influential places in court. 

Because of the Queen you mean? Is there any reason why the Queen should not have some kind of influence on these things?

And of course you are overstating it. Jaime was a member of Robert's the Kingsguard before Cersei was Queen and Robert having Lannister squires is hardly evidence given that Johanna, Tywin and his uncle Tion all served similar positions at court under Aegon. 

The Lannisters are the richest House in the realm, with or without a Queen they should be one of the most influential Houses at court. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I'm not sure why you think this.  If Renly rises for Stannis, the Lannisters are 100% doomed.

Nope, not even. As Renly can only count on some of the Stormlords. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

The forces of the Reach are irrelevant at this point, because Renly and the Stormlanders + Stannis and the men sworn to Dragonstone are more than enough to storm Kings Landing.

So then why does Stannis not get this full support after Renly's death? Quite a large amount of his force is from the Reach. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And the Stormlands don't send their full strength because they split their loyalties; if the younger Baratheons unite, they'll follow en masse .

Yes, between the three Baratheon claimants, not two. They still remain split. 

And I still don't see why Renly should support Stannis to usurp the Crown? Or why he'd want Stannis to be King given his obvious disdain he shows for his brother. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Whew, another case of someone not reasoning beyond the obvious.  It is common knowledge that Robert's kids, aren't his kids.

No, not before Stannis sent out his letter it was not. And even then it looks incredibly opportunistic for Stannis' to send out such a letter. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

The entire WOT5K is basically a giant trial by combat to determine who gets the final say regarding their legitimacy.  

No, not really. Of the 5 kings only 1 king, Stannis, is questioning the legitimacy of Joffrey's birth. And it just so happens that he has the least amount of support than all the 5 factions. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, but what Renly should do, if he wasn't a stupid little shit out to undermine the entirety of the Westerosi social order, was ally with the Tyrells like he does during Robert's reign, and then bring them over to Stannis' camp.

eh? Why should he do that when he has made it clear with both his words and actions that he knew nothing of the incest?

And the Tyrells dont want Stannis as King. Why would they ally with him, a man they don't like and a man married to their biggest rivals in the Reach?

Lords Tyrell and Redwyne are older than Stannis. Serving under him as King for the rest of their lives likely does not seem that appealing.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Look, it is self-evident that Renly's personal safety was not actually threatened, at any point, because he could have bent the knee to Joffrey and been confirmed as Lord of Storm's End;

Well no. Renly warns Ned that should Cersei get into power they would both be in danger, Ned, from Renly's perspective of the conversation, ignores this and subsequently gets arrested and executed after Renly has fled while a royal decree that Renly and every other major Lord be summoned to Kings Landing to pledge their allegiance to the King or have their lands and titles forfeit. 

Because Ned, like Stannis, chose to leave Renly in the dark he has every reason to suspect that he would share Ned's fate should he return to the capital. 

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

He is only in danger because he wants to advance politically.  He has no legal claim to the throne 

Yeah he does. You are confusing the words heir and claim. He has a weaker claim than his nephews and Stannis but he does have a claim similar to how Robert had a claim despite Viserys, Dany and their mother all still being alive. 

 

13 hours ago, Minsc said:

1. Stannis engages in more nepotistic appointments out of all the kings besides Joffrey with his appointment of Florents to be his Hand, Castellan, and Lord Admiral.  One could even argue that Davos's appoint was strongly nepotistic seeing how he is Stannis's only friend. 

 

Yeah, this argument always confuses me as people seem to think nepotism is only about family when it is just as much about friends as well. 

Davos was an appointment of nepotism as he was probably one of the worst qualified people among Stannis' vassals for such an appointment and this is shown clearly as Davos is still pretty much doing the same role for Stannis, his messenger for support, that he was doing at the beginning of ACOK. His job has not changed, his title has. 

In fact Tywin, despite being Joffrey's grandfather, is a more meritocratic appointment than Davos given that he was actually the best qualified amongst Joffrey's vassals for such a position. 

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9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

In fact Tywin, despite being Joffrey's grandfather, is a more meritocratic appointment than Davos given that he was actually the best qualified amongst Joffrey's vassals for such a position. 

That's a good point. 

Davos can't even read. 

He's not a general or politician.

He could be a decent enough diplomat but overall there really was no reason to choose Davos to be his hand.

 

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On 1/19/2018 at 4:14 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Eh, was Robert's rebellion just? Certianly. Is his case for why he should be king strong? Not really while two full blooded trueborn Targaryians are alive. By law of succession the crown should go to Viserys, then to Dany or Dany's sons. Robert cannot disinherit any body. Them(the rebels) removing Aerys from power does not mean he(Robert), a subject having won his rebellion and legitimizing himself using his Targaryian anchestery has a better claim than actual Targaryians.  Even when overthrowing a king(such is the case was with Maegor the cruel, or Aegon IV), the people who actually did it put the crown on the next in line and tried working with them.

People fought for Aerys for he was king and thought it was was in their self-interest to not risk his ire should he win.

There is a strong argument to be made that the rebels intended just what you describe, at first.  You know what changes that?  The fact that Rhaegar fights for Aerys.  Chronologically, Robert isn't proclaimed king until after Rhaegar returns from the Tower of Joy.  In fact, this is probably the event that makes it clear to the rebels that the current Targaryen line can't remain on the throne; there is no other motivating event for why Robert is acclaimed when he is.  Now the current king has to go (very justifiably), the heir has to go (also perfectly justifiable).  But two other things now matter.  First off, if you're the rebels, you'd have to be insane to seat Viserys or Aegon VI.  Because they are going to grow up, and take revenge on the people that rebelled against their family, and then it all starts over again.  Furthermore, if you're the rebels, you have 100 years of almost incessant Targaryen incompetence, misrule, and infringement on your rights (again, this from the perspective of a powerful noble) to further the case that this branch of the dynasty just isn't working.

That anyone but the Martells fought for Aerys II is a major worldbuilding error.

On 1/19/2018 at 4:14 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

No it isn't. Most of the people who truly  believe that have mostly been shown to be his followers. Because, he's offering no proof of his claim and him running away to DS without having alerted anyone of the twincest doesn't look good for and his excuse of Robert wouldn't have trusted him only would people think why the hell should they.

Almost everyone in court knows the truth, including Renly, Varys, and Littlefinger.  It's probably not crazy that a large portion of the staff of the Red Keep has suspicions; Cersei and Jaime are explicitly not very careful about their trysts - they hide it from Robert, but it doesn't take much to put two and two together if you hear sex noises coming from the Queen's bedchamber, when you know the King is out hunting...

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On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Renly doesn't know what the hell Stannis is doing. Barely anyone does. Nor does he know his purpose. The forces of the Reach are 100% not irrelevant. Even going by the typical timeline they'd have, what, 25K between the two of them? Tywin is at HH. He can and will still march down and strike them in the rear. And that ignores that Mace is still independent and this point so he can still offer the same Joff/Tommen marriage needed to cement the largest army in the realm.

If Renly goes for Stannis, he's bringing the Tyrells with him, because we've seen that the Tyrells are committed to gaining power through Renly well before Robert dies.  And if you go by the timeline and common sense, the Baratheon brothers will not only have probably 30-40,000 men (the full strength of the Stormlands + the Dragonstone levies), they'll also have the commonality of purpose that would almost certainly cause Robb and the Northerners to declare for them.

And if Renly and Stannis unite, then Tywin doesn't have time.  The only reason he makes it to KL in time in our world is because (a) Stannis is forced to go to Storm's End to gain the Stormlanders, and (b) gets delayed by weather.  Tywin would still be sitting with an outnumbered army, given his losses in battle.

We aren't butterflying away the last five years, we're saying that Renly commits to Stannis.  The only reason he doesn't do that is because he is greedy and wants to be king, in the face of thousands of years of tradition.

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Aerys had already murdered 10 nobles, including an LP and his heir, for little provocation. I am not talking about Robert claiming the throne but the civil war he fought to stay alive. You might remember Aerys calling for Robert's head for no reason.

But as to your ludicrously sophomoric notion of "strong legal case" inheritance was rarely neat, especially in an era modeled after the War of Roses and when GRRM said it's a messy situation.

WTF are you talking about?  Of course I recall that - Robert fights the civil war because Aerys breaks his feudal contract... by calling for his head (and breaking guest right, FYI)!  You're attempt to co-opt my argument is silly.

And I am not saying Robert has the "only" legal case, which you don't even need grade school knowledge to realize.  I said that once you accept that Aerys and everyone descended from him is not going to inherit, Robert has the strongest claim.  Which is, given our current level of knowledge of the relevant family trees, irrefutable.

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

It isn't common knowledge. It's known by a few. Varys, LF, Jon Arryn, Stannis, and Ned knew but that's about it. Even if Renly has heard it, he dismissed it outright

Renly 100% knows.  This isn't even a question.  If you actually think about the timeline and the actions in AGOT, this becomes clear.  I am not surprised you missed it, all things considered, but it's there.  His knowledge of it is the entire reason he plots to put Margaery in Robert's bed!  Which means the Tyrells know, as well, or they wouldn't agree to the plan.

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Renly should do exactly what he did. Anything you'd ask him to do is asking him to sew himself in a rock-filled sack.

How does he suffer if he backs Stannis?  What, precisely, changes about his circumstances, if he tells the Tyrells to back him in backing Stannis?  You keep insisting that Renly has no choice, when the opposite is glaringly obvious.  The only reason for his course of action is to supplant Stannis as heir to the throne; Stannis has no reason to distrust Renly beforehand (and even offers to make him his heir later on!).  He's equally safe from the Lannisters. 

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

1) Cersei confirms thats he was going to kill all the Baratheon brothers

on Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he'd begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers

OK.  Way to ignore the issue, which is that Renly can avoid this by allying with Stannis.  I am not saying Renly has to bare his breast to Cersei so she can stab him in the heart.  But Cersei is after both brothers, so there is safety in sticking together.

Your job is not to show that Renly is in danger, it's to show that him declaring himself king is the only way to avert that danger.  By almost any single measure, the safest option for Renly is to declare for Stannis; he's less of a target himself (not being a pretender himself), he's equally protected from the Lannisters, etc.

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

2) Stannis would have accepted Renly being the subordinate, which immediately loses the support of Highgarden.

... No it doesn't.  Stannis expects Renly to be the heir, which means the Tyrells can negotiate to either get a betrothal to a son of Stannis, have Stannis set aside Selyse in favor of Margaery, or, if he refuses those, still marry her off to Renly and assume that Stannis, who has thus far proven fairly infertile, will not produce a son, in which case Margaery's kids are kings.

Remember, Highgarden is (to your extremely limited knowledge) willing to put Margaery in Robert's bed, despite that not getting them a royal marriage or a half-Tyrell heir.

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

3) No See point 1

Again, you conveniently ignore, well... everything.  That Renly needs protection against the Lannisters, I agree 100%.  But why, precisely, does this require (a) the Tyrells, and (b) to claim the Throne?  By throwing his support to Stannis, he is MORE protected (since he isn't making an enemy of Stannis).  So I say to you - EVIDENCE!  COMMON SENSE!  Anything but repeating the same few easily dismissed arguments over and over.  Highgarden will follow Renly, because they followed him when it wasn't immediately netting them a royal marriage, and they followed him despite his obviously illegal claim to the throne.  And even if they don't, Renly gets his protection from his own bannermen plus Stannis'

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

4) Mostly wrong and completely refuted

Again, you've done neither.  He has no claim to the throne.  This is entirely right.  It isn't even open for dispute.  "Might makes right" is Renly's argument, which is obviously not a legal claim to the throne.  Older brothers come before younger - the only times we see even the slightest deviation from this is in cases of mental instability or extenuating circumstances (e.g. Aemon having sworn a maester's vows).

And as for the second part, all you did was refute your own straw man argument!  You have not even tried to show why Renly cannot physically protect himself by kneeling to his older brother.  Even if you assume the Tyrells will abandon him if he swears to Stannis, he still gains the physical safety he "wants" (according to you) by bringing all the Baratheon loyalists into one coalition, one which would almost certainly gain additional supporters for being united.

On 1/19/2018 at 9:54 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

5) Will all the swords of the SL come to defend Renly when he's denounced as a traitor and the armies of Westeros come for him?

Um, yes?  Because he IS denounced as a traitor.  I don't see why you think that the Stormlands will abandon him in this alternate timeline, when they mostly stick by him in OTL.  All of this shit you're talking about?  It happens!  Despite the obvious, irrefutable illegality of Renly's claim, they stand by him.  And pray tell, what armies are coming for him under this circumstance?  The Tyrells, even IF you assume they're going to abandon Renly (almost certainly not, they've long since thrown in with him personally with Loras, and politically), aren't going to immediately jump ship to the Lannisters, who as I said, they almost certainly know to be illegitimate, and it certainly seems unlikely they'd do SUCH a 180 on Renly, to whom they had just had a political alliance.  The Starks and Lannisters are still fighting it out in the Riverlands, so those armies aren't coming for him.  I see no reason why the Martells act any differently in this timeline, nor the Vale.

In effect, the only difference for Renly himself would be that he doesn't antagonize Stannis, and therefore, doesn't die!

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On 1/20/2018 at 11:40 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Which is not actually true. The Hand's of the King have been Robert's two best friends, his brothers both hold hugely important roles on the Small Council, in fact there is not a single Westerland person who sits on the Small Council. And Tyrion's look into the positions that Littlefinger was responsible show that the Lannisters were not nearly as dominant as claimed. 

It is always important to look at who is making such a claim and Ned, bless him, is very clear on his prejudices on the Lannisters while having pretty much zero clue on how it should be. 

We have seen enough history to see that the entourage that the Queen for the last 18 years has had is not that unusual when you compare it to the Hightowers & Strongs under Viserys and his heir Rhaenyra, the Martells under Daeron II, the Tyrells under Tommen or the host of father of the consorts of Maegor and Aegon IV.

Of course, the difference between us seems to be that I understand more of what I read than you do, and know more about feudal politics.  Influence at court is as much about access to the person of the king, and the ability to reward followers with juicy appointments, as it is about sitting on the Small Council or dictating policy.  And Ned isn't the only one to comment on this; Robert himself mentions it!  Both the royal squires are Lannisters.  The Kingsguard is packed with Cersei's appointees.  Sandor Clegane is the royal heir's sworn sword, with basically 24/7 access.  Both Ned and Robert mention that the king is "surrounded" by Lannisters.  Take Renly and Stannis out of the picture for a second, and do we see almost any favor for non-Lannisters?  Littlefinger manages to corrupt his branch of the royal bureaucracy, yes.  But when it comes to royal privilege, it's all Lannisters, all the time.

And I am not claiming this is unusual or "wrong".  This is what Cersei is supposed to do; advance her House politically through her husband.  And by the way... the Martell influence under Daeron caused a civil war (or partially caused), and the Tyrells as explicitly mentioned as being as greedy and grasping as the Lannisters were under Robert.  But Robert should be paying more attention, and distributing favor more equitably - you'll note all the examples you quoted led to massive civil discord.

On 1/20/2018 at 11:40 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Nope, not even. As Renly can only count on some of the Stormlords. 

Lets say he can count on half the Stormlords.  Lets estimate that at 15,000 men.  Plus the ~5,000 Stannis can raise.  That's 20,000 men at the gates of Kings Landing months before it happens in OTL.  Yeah... the Lannisters are 100% doomed; Stannis himself shows up with barely more than that, and is minutes away from winning.  And that's before you acknowledge that Robb and his massive chunk of the realm probably declares for Stannis without Renly complicating the matter.

On 1/20/2018 at 11:40 AM, Bernie Mac said:

So then why does Stannis not get this full support after Renly's death? Quite a large amount of his force is from the Reach.

I'll turn it back on you; why does it matter?  If Stannis had gotten to Kings Landing a day earlier, an hour earlier, he wins.  Which means if Renly declares for Stannis at their meeting, and the intervening day isn't wasted, Stannis wins.  We can argue hypotheticals about where the Stormlords are til we're blue in the face, but at the end of the day, Stannis has more than enough men to storm King's Landing with only the Stormlords Renly gathered + the Florents (I don't think any other major Reacher Lords declared for him).

On 1/20/2018 at 11:40 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Yeah he does. You are confusing the words heir and claim. He has a weaker claim than his nephews and Stannis but he does have a claim similar to how Robert had a claim despite Viserys, Dany and their mother all still being alive. 

I'm not confusing it.  Robert had a claim because they were explicitly declaring the entire line of Aerys II to be disinherited, for obvious reasons.  I suppose you could technically say he has a legal claim, but it is not a legitimate claim as long as Stannis lives.  There is no legal way for him to jump Stannis in the line of succession without declaring some extenuating circumstance (mental instability, murderous psychopath, etc).

On 1/20/2018 at 11:40 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Yes, between the three Baratheon claimants, not two. They still remain split. 

And I still don't see why Renly should support Stannis to usurp the Crown? Or why he'd want Stannis to be King given his obvious disdain he shows for his brother. 

Because Renly knows Joffrey & siblings are illegitimate.  And by the way, as Stannis himself said, it's one thing to support Joffrey, another to support Renly.  Either Renly knows about the twincest (spoiler: he does) or he doesn't, either way he isn't in any way next in line to claim the throne.

Oh, and we can presume that in that case, Renly/Stannis gets 2/3 of the Stormlands, still MORE than enough to crush Kings Landing.

On 1/20/2018 at 11:40 AM, Bernie Mac said:

No, not before Stannis sent out his letter it was not. And even then it looks incredibly opportunistic for Stannis' to send out such a letter. 

At the very least, everyone on the Small Council (save maybe Barristan) know about the twincest.  Given Renly's political machinations, the Tyrells also know.  I think it likely the Tywin suspects, even if he'll never admit it to himself.  Basically, we see that most courtiers have reasons to be suspicious.  To turn this argument on you, the only person who gives us a direct look into Kings Landing before the letter goes out is the slightly naive, extremely isolated Ned Stark.  Royal courts are hotbeds of gossip, and enough people know about this already that it's difficult to imagine it isn't being whispered about; after all, Cersei and Jaime are basically the opposite of discretion, and do everything but have sex on the Iron Throne itself in front of Robert.

On 1/20/2018 at 11:40 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Well no. Renly warns Ned that should Cersei get into power they would both be in danger, Ned, from Renly's perspective of the conversation, ignores this and subsequently gets arrested and executed after Renly has fled while a royal decree that Renly and every other major Lord be summoned to Kings Landing to pledge their allegiance to the King or have their lands and titles forfeit. 

Because Ned, like Stannis, chose to leave Renly in the dark he has every reason to suspect that he would share Ned's fate should he return to the capital. 

Right, but if Renly allies with Ned in this case and pledges his retainers, they have a fighting chance at establishing a just regency.

And again, let me make this clear: Renly knows about the twincest and Joffrey's parentage.  If you want, I'll explain how his actions make this all but a universal law of the story, but I'll give you one more chance, and here's the hint: think about what we know Mace Tyrell's priorities are, and how that can possibly make sense in the context of the plot to marry Margaery to Robert.

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2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

There is a strong argument to be made that the rebels intended just what you describe, at first.  You know what changes that?  The fact that Rhaegar fights for Aerys. 

That is honestly very and I do mean very unlikely they didn't think Rheagar would fight for his house.. Rheagar is a full grown man and a warrior 

3 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Chronologically, Robert isn't proclaimed king until after Rhaegar returns from the Tower of Joy.  In fact, this is probably the event that makes it clear to the rebels that the current Targaryen line can't remain on the throne; there is no other motivating event for why Robert is acclaimed when he is. 

 

Again unlikely. Extremely so. And Robert is proclaimed after taking KL.

3 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Now the current king has to go (very justifiably), the heir has to go (also perfectly justifiable).  But two other things now matter.  First off, if you're the rebels, you'd have to be insane to seat Viserys or Aegon VI.  Because they are going to grow up, and take revenge on the people that rebelled against their family, and then it all starts over again.  Furthermore, if you're the rebels, you have 100 years of almost incessant Targaryen incompetence, misrule, and infringement on your rights (again, this from the perspective of a powerful noble) to further the case that this branch of the dynasty just isn't working Yeah still doesn't change the fact his claim for the throne is basiclly bullshit while two full blooded Targaryens are alive. And for 100s of years the Targaryens have mostly been competent enough rulers  who allowed Westeoes to progress.

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2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

If Renly goes for Stannis, he's bringing the Tyrells with him, because we've seen that the Tyrells are committed to gaining power through Renly well before Robert dies. 

The Tyrells aren't going to back Stannis even if Renly backs him.  Mace Tyrell has zero reasons to support Stannis while having a multitude for opposing him.  Two simply being Stannis holds a petty grudge against him and secondly Stannis is married into an ambitious house that wants the titles of House Tyrell.  There is a reason that Mace has always picked the not-Stannis option when choosing what king to follow.  Especially, seeing how House Lannister could actually in turn offer Mace what he most desires.

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Renly 100% knows.  This isn't even a question.  If you actually think about the timeline and the actions in AGOT, this becomes clear. 

Renly 100% doesn't know.  The timeline and actions in AGOT and ACOK makes that clear.  How he would have had zero reason to keep that knowledge hidden throughout the series.

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By almost any single measure, the safest option for Renly is to declare for Stannis

It is much safer to have the Tyrells having his back than Stannis.  The Tyrells only back him if he crowns himself not Stannis.

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2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

If Renly goes for Stannis, he's bringing the Tyrells with him, because we've seen that the Tyrells are committed to gaining power through Renly well before Robert dies.  And if you go by the timeline and common sense, the Baratheon brothers will not only have probably 30-40,000 men (the full strength of the Stormlands + the Dragonstone levies), they'll also have the commonality of purpose that would almost certainly cause Robb and the Northerners to declare for them.

He absolutely would not retain the Tyrells. They married their daughter to a king. Renly wanted to wed Marg to Robert, who was the king. Why would they settle for any less? There's no motivation for them to marry Marg to the heir, whose sole is still alive, when the current king (and his heir) remain unwed. Notice how Stannis didn't either offer to set aside Selyse for Marg, and the Tyrells also didn't offer Marg or Loras (to marry Shireen since she was his heir). In fact, the Tyrells and their vassals seized Stannis' emissaries, started massacring the Florent infantry, and opened up communications with Tywin. Even ignoring that the Tyrells *might* have been okay with marrying the heir to the throne, Stannis as an ally was so completely unthinkable they started killing those allied with him. And you seriously think that they would accept Stannis as a king? Then you have the Florents constantly bitching in series about their claims to Highgarden.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And if Renly and Stannis unite, then Tywin doesn't have time.  The only reason he makes it to KL in time in our world is because (a) Stannis is forced to go to Storm's End to gain the Stormlanders, and (b) gets delayed by weather.  Tywin would still be sitting with an outnumbered army, given his losses in battle.

There was no way there were going to unite after Renly was crowned. Renly crowned himself because Stannis was gone and he was alone against the Lannisters. Even if they managed to storm KL successfull, they are in a starving city with Tommen and Myrcella at a different location, with the possibility of being taken in the rear by Tywin, the hand of the king, and the tyrells, who know have a betrothal between Marg and Tommen.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

We aren't butterflying away the last five years, we're saying that Renly commits to Stannis.  The only reason he doesn't do that is because he is greedy and wants to be king, in the face of thousands of years of tradition.

And that was never going to happen unless Stannis came out of his shell and they are fine with the Tyrells going directly to the Lannisters.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

WTF are you talking about?  Of course I recall that - Robert fights the civil war because Aerys breaks his feudal contract... by calling for his head (and breaking guest right, FYI)!  You're attempt to co-opt my argument is silly.

And I am not saying Robert has the "only" legal case, which you don't even need grade school knowledge to realize.  I said that once you accept that Aerys and everyone descended from him is not going to inherit, Robert has the strongest claim.  Which is, given our current level of knowledge of the relevant family trees, irrefutable.

There is nothing saying Aerys' heirs were to be disinherited, but I will leave that aside. I will point out that Renly's acts and situation are virtually identical to Robert's at that point. Alone, on the run, searching for allies from a throne who wants his head.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Renly 100% knows.  This isn't even a question.  If you actually think about the timeline and the actions in AGOT, this becomes clear.  I am not surprised you missed it, all things considered, but it's there.  His knowledge of it is the entire reason he plots to put Margaery in Robert's bed!  Which means the Tyrells know, as well, or they wouldn't agree to the plan.

No no no. He plots to have Robert switch out Cersei for Marg because he thinks Cersei is trying to kill him (and likely Robert and Stannis). Then he tries to get Ned to seize power. Then he basically laughs at Stannis' letter and asks him if he can prove it. It all leans toward him not knowing until Stannis sent the letter -- three kids having blonde hair isn't unusual. My siblings and I had it and our father has coal black hair -- or believing it but knowing \the allegation is worthless without proof, bringing everyone back to square one. Note that Stannis just finds his teeth when Renly asks him about proof.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

How does he suffer if he backs Stannis?  What, precisely, changes about his circumstances, if he tells the Tyrells to back him in backing Stannis?  You keep insisting that Renly has no choice, when the opposite is glaringly obvious.  The only reason for his course of action is to supplant Stannis as heir to the throne; Stannis has no reason to distrust Renly beforehand (and even offers to make him his heir later on!).  He's equally safe from the Lannisters. 

The Tyrells leave. They can get a better offer from the Lannisters and will get that better offer.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

OK.  Way to ignore the issue, which is that Renly can avoid this by allying with Stannis.  I am not saying Renly has to bare his breast to Cersei so she can stab him in the heart.  But Cersei is after both brothers, so there is safety in sticking together.

Agreed but he loses most of his support if he declares Stannis his king.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Your job is not to show that Renly is in danger, it's to show that him declaring himself king is the only way to avert that danger.  By almost any single measure, the safest option for Renly is to declare for Stannis; he's less of a target himself (not being a pretender himself), he's equally protected from the Lannisters, etc.

He tries to get Cersei replaced with Marg because she is trying to kill him.

He asks Ned to take his swords and seize the children, while Ned names himself Lord Protector and Regent. He says the Lannisters will harm them. Ned refuses and then stupidly asks LF for support. Renly lives. Ned dies after LF betrays him.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

... No it doesn't.  Stannis expects Renly to be the heir, which means the Tyrells can negotiate to either get a betrothal to a son of Stannis, have Stannis set aside Selyse in favor of Margaery, or, if he refuses those, still marry her off to Renly and assume that Stannis, who has thus far proven fairly infertile, will not produce a son, in which case Margaery's kids are kings.

1) Stannis has had one child in 10-15 years of marriage, producing one disfigured daughter.

2) Divorce is not really an option.There's a reason why Doran hasn't divorced Mellario. Even accepting that it might happen why would the Tyrells marry their daughter to a non-believer. There is literally nothing to suggest they would.

 Sometimes relationships start on a good foot: you become acquainted, there's a great sexual attraction, you establish a relationship, you marry... and then in four or five years you realize that you don't really have anything in common, that at best you've made a mistake and are in a situation that doesn't have any easy solution in a society such as that of the Seven Kingdoms, where divorce simply isn't common. This is an example that it's not only marriages of convenience that fail, but even the marriages for love can fail.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Remember, Highgarden is (to your extremely limited knowledge) willing to put Margaery in Robert's bed, despite that not getting them a royal marriage or a half-Tyrell heir.

He was trying to get Cersei set aside, which means Marg becomes the queen and married to Robert. So this is false.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Again, you conveniently ignore, well... everything.  That Renly needs protection against the Lannisters, I agree 100%.  But why, precisely, does this require (a) the Tyrells, and (b) to claim the Throne?  By throwing his support to Stannis, he is MORE protected (since he isn't making an enemy of Stannis).  So I say to you - EVIDENCE!  COMMON SENSE!  Anything but repeating the same few easily dismissed arguments over and over.  Highgarden will follow Renly, because they followed him when it wasn't immediately netting them a royal marriage, and they followed him despite his obviously illegal claim to the throne.  And even if they don't, Renly gets his protection from his own bannermen plus Stannis'

I'm not conveniently ignoring anything:

1) Stannis has disappeared and won't respond to any ravens, messages.

2) Renly tried twice to neutralize the Lannister thread without declaring himself king.

3) Renly barely escapes the capital before the Lannisters strike

You really don't have a strong grasp on claim do you? Leading a civil war to overthrow the crown, which had been at least part of the precedent for his brother's crown, was definitely a claim. You can argue it as valid or not but the there prongs to the Robert Baratheon are satisfied:

1) Close blood relation to the crown (2nd cousin vs brother)

2) Under threat of death from crown

3) Has the military might to back up his claims on the battlefield

Even more, we have GRRM piling on:

There are no clear cut answers, either in Westeros or in real medieval history. Things were often decided on a case by case basis. A case might set a precedent for later cases... but as often as not, the precedents conflicted as much as the claims.

The decision eventually boiled down to precedence (John Balliol) versus proximity (Bruce) and went to Balliol, but those other thirteen guys all had claims as well. King of Eric of Norway, for instance, based his claim to the throne on his =daughter=, the aforementioned Maid of Norway, who had been the queen however briefly. He seemed to believe that inheritance should run backwards.

The bottom line, I suppose, is that inheritance was decided as much by politics as by laws. In Westeros and in medieval Europe both.

 
2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Again, you've done neither.  He has no claim to the throne.  This is entirely right.  It isn't even open for dispute.  "Might makes right" is Renly's argument, which is obviously not a legal claim to the throne.  Older brothers come before younger - the only times we see even the slightest deviation from this is in cases of mental instability or extenuating circumstances (e.g. Aemon having sworn a maester's vows).

And as for the second part, all you did was refute your own straw man argument!  You have not even tried to show why Renly cannot physically protect himself by kneeling to his older brother.  Even if you assume the Tyrells will abandon him if he swears to Stannis, he still gains the physical safety he "wants" (according to you) by bringing all the Baratheon loyalists into one coalition, one which would almost certainly gain additional supporters for being united.

Just read this: http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Hornwood_Inheritance_and_the_Whents

I didn't really feel the need to explain why Renly cannot physically protect himself. If he loses the Tyrells (but somehow keeps all the SL), then he adds maybe another 5000 shitty troops and mercenaries to army while the Lannisters remain at full strength and likely gain the Tyrells.

That would put him at a net -55K to -75K on the manpower side. Maybe they get Robb to join them, so it's only another -35K to -55K.

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Um, yes?  Because he IS denounced as a traitor.  I don't see why you think that the Stormlands will abandon him in this alternate timeline, when they mostly stick by him in OTL.  All of this shit you're talking about?  It happens!  Despite the obvious, irrefutable illegality of Renly's claim, they stand by him.  And pray tell, what armies are coming for him under this circumstance?  The Tyrells, even IF you assume they're going to abandon Renly (almost certainly not, they've long since thrown in with him personally with Loras, and politically), aren't going to immediately jump ship to the Lannisters, who as I said, they almost certainly know to be illegitimate, and it certainly seems unlikely they'd do SUCH a 180 on Renly, to whom they had just had a political alliance.  The Starks and Lannisters are still fighting it out in the Riverlands, so those armies aren't coming for him.  I see no reason why the Martells act any differently in this timeline, nor the Vale.

In effect, the only difference for Renly himself would be that he doesn't antagonize Stannis, and therefore, doesn't die!

He's denounced as a traitor well after hes' assembled his men, something like a month or two. Renly leaves after Robert's death in late October and pronounced king in early January.

You've also given no proof Renly knew and there's every indication he didn't and/or knew it didn't matter. As to the bolded, that's literally what they did in the story. We've also got no evidence that they had any knowledge of the incest. You can keep repeating that till you're blue in the face and have, so surely you have a list of who learned about the incest and quotes as to when they learned or confirmed/implied they knew.

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3 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And again, let me make this clear: Renly knows about the twincest and Joffrey's parentage.  If you want, I'll explain how his actions make this all but a universal law of the story, but I'll give you one more chance, and here's the hint: think about what we know Mace Tyrell's priorities are, and how that can possibly make sense in the context of the plot to marry Margaery to Robert.

What you're typing is clear. Your reasoning is not and your evidence even worse:

Why would Mace marry his daughter to the king? Well that's pretty obvious. He wants grandchildren on the throne. Now why would Renly try to do this? Because Cersei is trying to kill him and if she's not queen she has a lot less access and power to do so:

“Lord Renly took a step back, taut as a bowstring. “Every moment you delay gives Cersei another moment to prepare. By the time Robert dies, it may be too late … for both of us.”
“Then we should pray that Robert does not die.”
“Small chance of that,” said Renly.
“Sometimes the gods are merciful.”
“The Lannisters are not.” Lord Renly turned away and went back across the moat, to the tower where his brother lay dying.”
“On the night of Robert’s death, I offered your husband a hundred swords and urged him to take Joffrey into his power. Had he listened, he would be regent today, and there would have been no need for me to claim the throne.”
“Ned refused you.” She did not have to be told.
“He had sworn to protect Robert’s children,” Renly said. “I lacked the strength to act alone, so when Lord Eddard turned me away, I had no choice but to flee. Had I stayed, I knew the queen would see to it that I did not long outlive my brother.”
“his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers.”

He literally says he doesn't want the throne until it was the last option. Cersei says she wanted to kill Renly and Stannis.

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5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Of course, the difference between us seems to be that I understand more of what I read than you do, and know more about feudal politics. 

 lol You are also forgetting how incredibly humble you are. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

Influence at court is as much about access to the person of the king, and the ability to reward followers with juicy appointments, as it is about sitting on the Small Council or dictating policy.

And Renly as Master of Law and the Kings Brother has all of that in spades. It seems odd that someone as intelligent as yourself can not see that?

Do you want to explain how being best friends with the Queen's brother is going to give the current Master of Law more influence and more access to the King that Renly currently has?

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  And Ned isn't the only one to comment on this; Robert himself mentions it! 

No he does not. Not once in the books does Robert complain that the Lannisters control his court. You are offering a disingenuous argument here. In the show he does, in the books he does not. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

Both the royal squires are Lannisters. 

How much power do you think squires have? And this is the best you can come up with? There are three people from the Stormlands sitting on the the Small Council and zero people from the Westerlands yet the Lannisters dominate because they have two squires to the King, squires who are literally treated like shit by the King?

Please explain how Lancel and Tyrek are more dominant in the affairs government than Robert's two brothers, the Master of Law and the Master of Ships?

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

The Kingsguard is packed with Cersei's appointees. 

Citation?

There is zero evidence to suggest any of Robert's Kingsguard got their position due to Cersei. Barristan and Jaime were already in before Robert was even betrothed to Cersei, Meryn Trant is a Stormlander, Aerys Oakheart makes zero mention of this in his POV (nor does Cersei for that matter in any of her POVs), Mandon Moore from the Vale. 

Possibly Preston Greenfield got his appointment due to Cersei, though there is zero evidence to actually suggest that. 

So so far your big evidence is squires and some made up shit that is not backed up by the books. You are not off to a good start. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Sandor Clegane is the royal heir's sworn sword, with basically 24/7 access. 

Nicknamed the dog. Hugely influential, right?

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

Both Ned and Robert mention that the king is "surrounded" by Lannisters. 

Look at how weak your argument is that you have to resort to repeating claims you made just a paragraph ago. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

Take Renly and Stannis out of the picture for a second, and do we see almost any favor for non-Lannisters?

Yes. Jon Arryn is able to appoint a fellow Vale man, someone his wife recommended him, to become the Master of Coin. As we see from Tyrion the Master of Coin is responsible for a huge amount of appointments. 

And in the process, he moved his own men into place. The Keepers of the Keys were his, all four. The King's Counter and the King's Scales were men he'd named. The officers in charge of all three mints. Harbormasters, tax farmers, customs sergeants, wool factors, toll collectors, pursers, wine factors; nine of every ten belonged to Littlefinger. They were men of middling birth, by and large; merchants' sons, lesser lordlings, sometimes even foreigners, but judging from their results, far more able than their highborn predecessors.
No one had ever thought to question the appointments, and why should they? Littlefinger was no threat to anyone.
 
The men of the Small Council are responsible for the hiring of the bureaucracy of the Government. Both the Master of Law and the Master of Ships would have similar titles to hand out. 
5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  Littlefinger manages to corrupt his branch of the royal bureaucracy, yes.  But when it comes to royal privilege, it's all Lannisters, all the time.

Because of two squires and the Hound? Come on. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And I am not claiming this is unusual or "wrong".  This is what Cersei is supposed to do; advance her House politically through her husband.

And yet she is clearly not doing a good job at it. Under Margaery the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, Tarly and Rowan all sat on the Small Coucil. There was talk of other Tyrells coming in to act as Grandmaester and Master of Coin (with Garth's sons taking prominent positions in the Gold Cloaks). 

The Lannister so called dominance is nowhere near that of the Tyrells or other royal consort factions. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  And by the way... the Martell influence under Daeron caused a civil war (or partially caused), and the Tyrells as explicitly mentioned as being as greedy and grasping as the Lannisters were under Robert.

Why says the Tyrells were as greedy and grasping as the Lannisters under Robert?

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  But Robert should be paying more attention, and distributing favor more equitably - you'll note all the examples you quoted led to massive civil discord.

And all the examples I gave show just what real dominance looks like. The Lannisters are less dominant than House Baratheon is and at a similar level to House Arryn under Jon. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Lets say he can count on half the Stormlords.  Lets estimate that at 15,000 men.  Plus the ~5,000 Stannis can raise.  That's 20,000 men at the gates of Kings Landing months before it happens in OTL.

And Tywin is sitting on his arse while this happens? Tywin was able to beat Ned to Kings Landing when Ned was much closer to Kings Landing than Storm's End is. 

And how does it happens months before?

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

Yeah... the Lannisters are 100% doomed; Stannis himself shows up with barely more than that, and is minutes away from winning.

lol minutes?

Making up bullshit does not add credibility to an already poorly thought out argument. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And that's before you acknowledge that Robb and his massive chunk of the realm probably declares for Stannis without Renly complicating the matter.

Except Robb is clear that Tommen comes before Stannis and Robb does not feel that Tommen or Myrcella have wronged him. 

"That makes him evil," Robb replied. "I do not know that it makes Renly king. Joffrey is still Robert's eldest trueborn son, so the throne is rightfully his by all the laws of the realm. Were he to die, and I mean to see that he does, he has a younger brother. Tommen is next in line after Joffrey."

 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I'll turn it back on you; why does it matter?  If Stannis had gotten to Kings Landing a day earlier, an hour earlier, he wins.  Which means if Renly declares for Stannis at their meeting, and the intervening day isn't wasted, Stannis wins.

Except he does not as Tyrion and the author himself make it abundantly clear that the only reason Tywin leaves for the Westerlands is that Stannis should have been stuck at Storm's End for months. 

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?" - Tyrion

Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside. And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear.  -GRRM

 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  We can argue hypotheticals about where the Stormlords are til we're blue in the face, but at the end of the day, Stannis has more than enough men to storm King's Landing with only the Stormlords Renly gathered + the Florents (I don't think any other major Reacher Lords declared for him).

He actually does not given that Tywin's force at the nearby Harrenhal, the force at Kings Landing and the Walls of Kings Landing should be more than enough to cope with Stannis' 21k. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I'm not confusing it.

You are. Renly has a claim, it is why the Tyrells get into bed with him in the first place. He does not have the best claim, no one has claimed that, but when you say that Renly has zero claim it is quite clear that you are confusing the words heir and claim. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  Robert had a claim because they were explicitly declaring the entire line of Aerys II to be disinherited, for obvious reasons.  I suppose you could technically say he has a legal claim, but it is not a legitimate claim as long as Stannis lives.

The Tyrells and the largest army gathered in the war of the five kings seem to disagree with that. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  There is no legal way for him to jump Stannis in the line of succession without declaring some extenuating circumstance (mental instability, murderous psychopath, etc).

Well there is you problem, you are presuming that the laws you have in your head carry as much weight in GRRM's fictional universe. They don't, that is why he gets to be right. 

Well, the short answer is that the laws of inheritance in the Seven Kingdoms are modelled on those in real medieval history... which is to say, they were vague, uncodified, subject to varying interpertations, and often contradictory. -GRRM

Renly was happy to reward his brother with Storm's End for stepping aside. 

 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Because Renly knows Joffrey & siblings are illegitimate.

Except he does not. Both his words and actions make it perfectly clear that he does not know. 

Why does he not share this information with Ned when he is warning Ned that their lives are in danger from Cersei?

Why does he need someone who is the spitting image of Robert's lost love Lyanna if he does not need to tempt Robert to end his marriage?

Why does no one come to this same conclusion, incuding Cat and Stannis, when he reveals his plans to marry Robert to Margaery?

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  And by the way, as Stannis himself said, it's one thing to support Joffrey, another to support Renly.  Either Renly knows about the twincest (spoiler: he does) or he doesn't, either way he isn't in any way next in line to claim the throne.

 

First of all he does not know. That is canon until further evidence comes forward. 

Second of all no one claimed he was next in line. Had someone claimed this then you would finally be right about something, sadly no one has. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Oh, and we can presume that in that case, Renly/Stannis gets 2/3 of the Stormlands, still MORE than enough to crush Kings Landing.

Unless they can teleport that is not likely. 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

At the very least, everyone on the Small Council (save maybe Barristan) know about the twincest. 

You do realise both Littlefinger and Varys have spies, right? Renly, to the readers knowledge, does not. 

Arryn was told by Stannis and they actually don't know, they suspect (and are correct), but knowing and suspecting are two different things. 

Renly claims he did not know, none of his actions make it seem that he did know so until further evidence comes along it is canon that he did not know. 

 

5 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

 

And again, let me make this clear: Renly knows about the twincest and Joffrey's parentage.

lol you repeating this does not make it any more true. 

 

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On 1/23/2018 at 7:01 AM, Minsc said:

The Tyrells aren't going to back Stannis even if Renly backs him.  Mace Tyrell has zero reasons to support Stannis while having a multitude for opposing him.  Two simply being Stannis holds a petty grudge against him and secondly Stannis is married into an ambitious house that wants the titles of House Tyrell.  There is a reason that Mace has always picked the not-Stannis option when choosing what king to follow.  Especially, seeing how House Lannister could actually in turn offer Mace what he most desires.

I don't think Stannis' hatred of Mace is petty, as they fought against each other during RR. Stannis was starving while Mace held his men under siege. Stannis' very legalistic point of view means that he feel all traitors must be punished. King Stannis = sad Mace Tyrell, since he would receive his come-uppance for opposing the Baratheon's rise to the throne.

Mace picked the losing side, and yet remained in power of the Reach. Stannis would not do such a thing.

That said, Stannis is also legalistic rather than emotional. He is married to a Florent, but I don't think his affection for his wife stretches far enough that he would attaint the Tyrells and put the Florents into power.

Edited by Yukle

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On 1/3/2018 at 7:28 PM, The Sunland Lord said:

Tywin couldn't handle his own family. That's why his own son killed him.

You say as if this combo didn't get the chance to rule the 7 Kingdoms. It's not even hypothetical-it's a fact they did. How the realm "would" prosper? 

Joffrey had no right to the throne.  He's not a Targaryen.  He's not a Baratheon.  But having no right to the throne does not necessarily make one a bad ruler.  Just one who got there and is there illegally.  Joffrey on his own is terrible but with Tywin keeping him in check and running everything in the background it's ok.  Tywin can never be king but he can rule behind the curtains.  The problem faced by Joffrey's reign are two-fold.  Inherited debt from Robert.  The national debt was substantial.  Stannis, Balon, Robb, and Renly rebelled which had the effect of making it difficult to pay down the debt.  The king's council was forced to deal with the rebels instead of addressing the financial crisis.  Robb doesn't have the experience nor the talent outside of the battlefield.  Balon is not really a ruler.  Stannis is hated.  Renly is popular but his abilities as leader has never been fully tested.  Tywin is not perfect but he is better than those guys.  Joffrey is a burden but Tywin can't rule without him.

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On 1/22/2018 at 2:32 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

That is honestly very and I do mean very unlikely they didn't think Rheagar would fight for his house.. Rheagar is a full grown man and a warrior 

Whatever you may mean, you're almost certainly wrong.  We know Rhaegar is actively planning a coup against his father, and may be credibly said to be doing so as early as the Tourney at Harrenhal.  Plus, what Aerys does is so far beyond the pale of Westerosi norms that it's not unreasonable to expect Rhaegar to denounce him.

On 1/22/2018 at 2:32 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Again unlikely. Extremely so. And Robert is proclaimed after taking KL.

This is wrong.  Stop debating if you don't have the facts.  Robert is crowned after Kings Landing falls; he is proclaimed around the time of the Trident, according to Martin.

On 1/22/2018 at 2:32 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah still doesn't change the fact his claim for the throne is basiclly bullshit while two full blooded Targaryens are alive. And for 100s of years the Targaryens have mostly been competent enough rulers  who allowed Westeoes to progress.

Ahhh... yet another 11 year old who doesn't understand that feudal politics and monarchy goes beyond "blood = divine right".

Aerys has effectively delegitimised his entire line of descendants through his actions.  He violates the feudal contract, and as a result, is dethroned, along with his "heirs".  Robert is the next closest Targaryen descendant, which is why he's proclaimed and crowned king.

And from the perspective of the nobility, the Targaryens have been really awful rulers for well over a century.

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On 1/22/2018 at 3:01 PM, Minsc said:

Renly 100% doesn't know.  The timeline and actions in AGOT and ACOK makes that clear.  How he would have had zero reason to keep that knowledge hidden throughout the series.

Are you effing serious?  Are you deliberately trolling, not a native English speaker, or just so freakin' dense that you missed the very obvious clues?

Renly is scheming to put Margaery in Robert's bed.  Mace goes along with this because he wants Margaery to be Queen, and her kids to be kings.  This only works if both Renly and Mace are aware of Joffrey & Siblings being illegitimate, because otherwise Margaery's kids are way far down the line of succession.  That entire plot is a result of Renly's knowledge; additionally, every other close courtier (everyone on the Small Council except Ser Barristan) knows, so it logically makes sense Renly does as well.

On 1/22/2018 at 3:01 PM, Minsc said:

It is much safer to have the Tyrells having his back than Stannis.  The Tyrells only back him if he crowns himself not Stannis.

THE TYRELLS ALREADY BACK HIM.  Mace supporting Renly has nothing to do with Renly's claim on the throne and predates the war by some time.  And he can have both.  Stannis holds a grudge against everyone, not just Mace, and overlooks it.  If Mace declares for him, he isn't going to be told to go to hell.  Renly can get exactly what he wanted with Robert with Stannis, or much of it; credit for bringing the Tyrells into the fold and a hugely important gatekeeper position at court, and safety from the Lannisters.

Why anyone thinks Renly is acting out of anything except selfish self-interest blows my mind.  His actions consistently demonstrate that.,

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2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This is wrong.  Stop debating if you don't have the facts.  Robert is crowned after Kings Landing falls; he is proclaimed around the time of the Trident, according to Martin.

No, he can only be proclaimed when it is official. While Aerys was alive he was the King, Robert can only be proclaimed after his death/removal from power before that he was a Pretender.

Robert had no crown, did not call himself King. He may have announced his intention to be the next king, but he could not (and did not) proclaim that he was King before he was actually crowned. 

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Ahhh... yet another 11 year old who doesn't understand that feudal politics and monarchy goes beyond "blood = divine right".

Is there any need for that? Someone said something you don't agree with, is there any need for the name calling?

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Aerys has effectively delegitimised his entire line of descendants through his actions.

No, he has not. Robert certainly does not think that, he is very worried about the Aerys children while we have seen that both Dany and (F)Aegon have backers who view them as the real monarchs despite their father/grandfathers actions. 

 

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And from the perspective of the nobility, the Targaryens have been really awful rulers for well over a century.

Really? Which nobility have claimed this?

 

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Are you effing serious?  Are you deliberately trolling, not a native English speaker, or just so freakin' dense that you missed the very obvious clues?

Again, seems needlessly antagonistic. I don't know why you have to overreact to people not agreeing with your opinion on a fictional universe. 

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Renly is scheming to put Margaery in Robert's bed.  Mace goes along with this because he wants Margaery to be Queen, and her kids to be kings.

eh? Citation for the last part?

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  This only works if both Renly and Mace are aware of Joffrey & Siblings being illegitimate, because otherwise Margaery's kids are way far down the line of succession. 

But still royalty. 

The idea that Mace would turn down the opportunity of his daughter being Queen, his grandchildren prince's and princess's just because one of them would not be King is ludicrous. 

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That entire plot is a result of Renly's knowledge;

The knowledge he never shares, even when he is begging Ned to arrest Cersei as he is fearful for his life?

Seems an odd time not to share this information. 

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additionally, every other close courtier (everyone on the Small Council except Ser Barristan) knows, so it logically makes sense Renly does as well

Both Littlefinger and Varys have spies, Renly as far as we know does not. 

Stannis suspected and brought this information to Arryn, for some strange reason he never brought the information to Renly.

Pycelle helped Arryn with his investiagtion

There is a reason why Renly and Barristan are in the dark, neither have spies and Stannis refused to tell them.  

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THE TYRELLS ALREADY BACK HIM.

YES, HIM, THEY BACK HIM TO BE KING. 

They don't back Stannis. 

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  Mace supporting Renly has nothing to do with Renly's claim on the throne and predates the war by some time.

Wrong. He only rebelled after Renly married his daughter. Being friendly with someone is not the same as backing  a rebellion. 

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Stannis holds a grudge against everyone, not just Mace, and overlooks it.

The perception of him is that he would not. And his own quotes are pretty clear that if he had the power he would have sent the traitors to the dungeon. 

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  If Mace declares for him, he isn't going to be told to go to hell.

He is however going to have to live the rest of his life under Stannis as King. Why would he want that?

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Renly can get exactly what he wanted with Robert with Stannis, or much of it; credit for bringing the Tyrells into the fold and a hugely important gatekeeper position at court, and safety from the Lannisters.

Except you have failed to prove that he could bring the Tyrells or the other Reach lords into the fold. Fighting for the hugely popular Renly to be King is very different than rebelling for Stannis. 

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Why anyone thinks Renly is acting out of anything except selfish self-interest blows my mind.  His actions consistently demonstrate that.,

Characters, well written ones, can have more than one motive. I agree, Renly is ambitious, but he is also scared of Cersei and seeing what happened to Ned and then being summoned to court or lose his lands likely forced his hand. 

 

 

Edited by Bernie Mac

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On 2/8/2018 at 10:31 AM, cpg2016 said:

Are you effing serious?  Are you deliberately trolling, not a native English speaker, or just so freakin' dense that you missed the very obvious clues?

Renly is scheming to put Margaery in Robert's bed.  Mace goes along with this because he wants Margaery to be Queen, and her kids to be kings.  This only works if both Renly and Mace are aware of Joffrey & Siblings being illegitimate, because otherwise Margaery's kids are way far down the line of succession.  That entire plot is a result of Renly's knowledge; additionally, every other close courtier (everyone on the Small Council except Ser Barristan) knows, so it logically makes sense Renly does as well.

It doesn't only work if Renly knows about the incest.  Lannister power is still checked with Cersei getting kicked out of a position of influence.  Similarly, the Tyrells still gain in influence by marrying the king.  It is the same reason that people competed to make their daughters the mistresses of kings both in real life and in the books in relationship to Aegon IV.

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THE TYRELLS ALREADY BACK HIM.  Mace supporting Renly has nothing to do with Renly's claim on the throne and predates the war by some time.  And he can have both.  Stannis holds a grudge against everyone, not just Mace, and overlooks it.  If Mace declares for him, he isn't going to be told to go to hell.  Renly can get exactly what he wanted with Robert with Stannis, or much of it; credit for bringing the Tyrells into the fold and a hugely important gatekeeper position at court, and safety from the Lannisters.

Mace isn't going to support Renly if Renly is backing Stannis as king.  Moreover, once Renly has crowned himself the Rubicon has been crossed and Renly cannot support Stannis at that time anymore.  Renly doesn't get what he wants nor does he get a hugely important position at court.  At most, Stannis grumbles something about him doing his duty and then continues on his petty and vindictive way.

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On February 8, 2018 at 10:24 AM, Bernie Mac said:

But still royalty. 

The idea that Mace would turn down the opportunity of his daughter being Queen, his grandchildren prince's and princess's just because one of them would not be King is ludicrous. 

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I kinda always took it that by pressumbly "divorcing" Cersi Mace had hoped Robert would name the son of his favored wife(Margary) heir.

Kinda like how Henry V set aside his children in the line of succession in favor of the offspring of his second marriage.

Hell maybe the basis for why Cersi would be set aside would be he hadn't coupled with her(like Henry V), even though they have had  children together.

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