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Westeros Experts League 2018


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11 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said:

Jace survives.

Dunk to the playoffs.

Mudguard Jaxomed.

Unless....Clement fumbles and has less than 15 yards...or Ertz scores a TD plus 40 yds and Jeffery and Davis are shutout or fumble.

Jace hoping beyond hope that Clement doesn’t touch the ball the rest of the night :bowdown:

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19 minutes ago, Dunknegg said:

Unless....Clement fumbles and has less than 15 yards...or Ertz scores a TD plus 40 yds and Jeffery and Davis are shutout or fumble.

Jace hoping beyond hope that Clement doesn’t touch the ball the rest of the night :bowdown:

That flea flicker had me weeping

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Final Power Rankings 

1) Mya - 79-38 (9-4)
2) WJ - 78-39 (10-3)
3) Lord Dracarys - 72-45 (6-7)
4) Jaime - 67-50 (8-5) 
5) Dunknegg - 54-63 (6-7)
5t) Jace - 54-63 (4-9)
7) Mudguard - 53-64 (6-7) 
8) Bronn - 47-70 (6-7) 
9) Week - 44-73 (3-10)
10)  BL - 37-80 (7-6)

Jaxoming Results

Jace earns another season in Experts on the strength of two final Corey Clement carries. Such an improbable way to stick. Congrats, Jace! Imagine Dunk will be sending you a gift basket as thanks for launching him into the playoffs.

Mudguard, I feel for you man. There may have been closer Jaxoming decisions in previous years but not sure I can think of one. And can guarantee none have hinged on a player as obscure as Corey Clement.

As it stands Week, Bronn and Mudguard are Jaxomed in that order. Guys, it's farewell but not necessarily goodbye. You still have the chance to save yourself by winning one of the feeder leagues. Failing that, wouldn't be shocked if any of you were back the year after. 

Playoffs

WC matchups this week:

(3) Jaime vs. (6) Dunk
(4) BL vs. (5) Drac

(1) WJ - Bye
(2) Mya - Bye

WJ and Mya have had the two dominant teams pretty much all year and have traded the power rankings lead multiple times. That said, as WJ's RBs have all emerged as monsters late and the Julio trade makes him the overall favorite to win the league IMO. The scariest dark horse looming as a threat to upset both has to be Drac based on averaging 183 points/week during his final 6 weeks. But it's the FFL playoffs so randomness is as likely as anything.

Other Notes

This was a significantly higher scoring season than last. 5 teams finished with scores higher than the highest score last year. Also had an unprecedented 4 teams climb over the once vaunted 2,000 point threshold that used to designate which were the truly elite teams (i.e.: last year we had none). Not sure if 2,000 points should still be the measuring stick with the NFL offensive rule changes. Maybe should be 2,100 or 2,200 points. We'll have to see how next year goes. 

WJ's 2,206 points topped the league this year, but still comes up short of the league's all time high score (WJ in 2011 reached 2,312 points and went 12-1...though of course this being Experts, he did not actually win the league that year). 

Even though Drac finished on a 3 game win streak and made the playoffs, he was still easily the unluckiest team all year. His power ranking implies something like a 9-4 team all things being equal. Luckiest was clearly BL whose power ranking would more commonly be found on like a 4-9 or 3-10 team. But this is why we play the game. Of course the two are now facing off in the playoffs and I will definitely not be making predictions on this one.  

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Congrats Jace.  I'm kicking myself for picking up Butker and playing a homer pick over Tucker.  Close losses are the worst.  Can second guess so many decisions.

I have a chance in Westeros C, but it's going to be tough.  Whiskeyjack's team is ridiculously stacked.  I've never seen anything close.

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49 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Congrats Jace.  I'm kicking myself for picking up Butker and playing a homer pick over Tucker.  Close losses are the worst.  Can second guess so many decisions.

I have a chance in Westeros C, but it's going to be tough.  Whiskeyjack's team is ridiculously stacked.  I've never seen anything close.

That W-C team is awesome, but somehow only scored 118 points this past week.  Hoping its just a fluke and it picks things up again by the time we hit week 15.

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18 hours ago, Whiskeyjack said:

That W-C team is awesome, but somehow only scored 118 points this past week.  Hoping its just a fluke and it picks things up again by the time we hit week 15.

Just a down week due to your relatively heavy investment in NO players in W-C.  I had a similar thing happen in W-A where I have Brees and Thomas, too.  Probably won't happen most weeks.  

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21 hours ago, Bronn Stone said:

My season failed on September 5th.  I'm definitely in the playoffs if I don't do the thing that I did that morning.  The thing I did that evening seemed bigger at the time but turned out to not matter so much.

Yeah for sure. The irony is I was sure I was getting a good 2 week fill in max but I'd ultimately be missing AlfMo's full season 1,000 yards that I was sure he'd get under Kyle Shanahan. There was no scenario I saw where Bell wouldn't show up which is why I (foolishly) drafted him in two leagues. That trade probably saved my season here.

Based on my experience there and with, um, certain recent events...not going to be so cavalier with handcuffs going forward. 

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16 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Yeah for sure. The irony is I was sure I was getting a good 2 week fill in max but I'd ultimately be missing AlfMo's full season 1,000 yards that I was sure he'd get under Kyle Shanahan. There was no scenario I saw where Bell wouldn't show up which is why I (foolishly) drafted him in two leagues.

My thoughts were a little different.  I heavily invested in Conner in Keeper and Dynasty last season, believing that the Steelers would move on after 2018.  Then got him in all three of my off-board leagues.  I felt a need to diversify across leagues and picked the exactly wrong one in which to do so.

 

16 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

That trade probably saved my season here.

You think?  :pimp:

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2 hours ago, Bronn Stone said:

You think?  :pimp:

It's actually less clear than you would think. And I love "what ifs" so I'll go down this road. 

Conner was awesome. He helped my points/power ranking absolutely and made me feel great about my team for a time. But, say, Conner doesn't come back for the FFL playoffs (which is starting to look likely with a high ankle sprain)...in terms of impact it is then entirely a question of whether I could've still made the playoffs without him. I mean, I could've put a 0 in that RB spot all year and still win 6 games based on victory margins. The two wins that would flip to losses would be Week 3 against Drac and then in week 5 against Mudguard. So the question was would I be able to do anything to still win either of those two weeks and get to the safety that is winning 7 games in this league? 

That week against Mudguard, there's no way I'm finding anyone to make up for the 31 Conner points that week. That's a loss regardless. But against Drac, Conner scored 9.5 and I won by 3.5. So I'd need to find someone who could've gotten me 6 points. I mean it's at least possible, right? 

Though the issue then is you've had Conner all year so you've almost certianly flipped a couple tight losses to wins. You're at 8 wins at least. Also my win over Mudguard flipped to loss so he's at 7 wins too. Even I still beat Drac, we now have 2 more teams with 7+ wins and it's possible I'm the odd man out even with 7 wins and a way weaker point total. 

Of course of this gets into the butterfly effect of all the different things each of us do if I have a gaping hole at RB and you have another stud and how address our new situations. 

tl;dr - I have zero desire to do any actual work in December. 

 

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20 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

It's actually less clear than you would think. And I love "what ifs" so I'll go down this road. 

Though the issue then is you've had Conner all year so you've almost certianly flipped a couple tight losses to wins. You're at 8 wins

tl;dr - I have zero desire to do any actual work in December. 9634b308dd640feaef0f1deb81f379ba40e4e847

 

I ran the numbers as best I could and yes, I pick up wins in weeks 9 and 10 only.  One of those unflips the flipped win you give to Mudguard.   I don't flip either of my losses to you.

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1 hour ago, Bronn Stone said:

I ran the numbers as best I could and yes, I pick up wins in weeks 9 and 10 only.  One of those unflips the flipped win you give to Mudguard.   I don't flip either of my losses to you.

Ok Mudguard is still screwed regardless of who had Conner. I think overall you end up the 3 seed. And I'm the 5th seed if I can find the right fill in who can get me 6 points in week 3. If not, I have a reasonable shot of being Jaxomed. 

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Jaime and I have a trade.

I get Stevan Ridley + Houston Defense
Jaime gets Jeff Wilson + Atlanta Defense

I really wanted a WR to replace Sanders.  But haven't been able to find the right deal there.  Thought about offering Wilson + Goodwin/Pettis for Cooks, which I think is a fair trade - but didn't expect Mya to feel the same and decided it wasn't worth checking. 

So I went ahead and upgraded one of the other positions where I need some help instead.  Philly Defense has kind of sucked, and there was no way I could use them week 15 in their matchup against the Rams.  Atlanta would have been an okay fill-in based on them playing the Cards, but ultimately I feel safer going with a much better defense who also has a good matchup (against the Jets).

All that said....I think I overpaid a bit here.  Jaime is getting a RB who should get 15-25 touches this week, who runs with power and can catch the ball out of the backfield, and who looked really good in his last game.  I feel like Justin Jackson would have been a more even deal, but he wouldn't take him.  So I pulled a trigger on something that improves my team, even if it probably improves his team a little more.  Guess we'll see how it goes.

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