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divica

So, what is going on in the north

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Lets start with roose. He just sent away his biggest problems in unifying the people in winterfell (ramsay-everybody hates, freys-everybody hates and maderleys that are his biggest enemy). So can he be planning something? Or sending the freys out was bad for him? Lets remember that stannis badly outnumbers the men roose sent, but he was expecting the karstarks to betray stannis...

Then Lady Dustin. She clearly hates the starks and dislikes the freys. So she could be a good Bolton suporter, but she also hates ramsay... So what is she planning? Is she sheming with roose to kill the manderleys, freys and ramsay and then marry roose? Or will she be on tem stark/stannis?

Ramsay. Is ramsay planning anything? Like letting the freys and manderleys deal with stannis and then kill them all? Marching to deepwod motte and retake the place? harass stannis army while he travels to winterfel and use 20 good men to burn stannis suplies?

Manderley. We know he has a fleet and lots of men hidden. However he was injured in the neck... will this injury have an effect in his schemes? like, does anybody else know what he is planning? And what is he planning?

Iron born. Did they sent wex to wyman to negotiate and Exchange of hostages? Like theon for the location of rickon and their northern hostages? What effect will this have on stannis army if some northerns demand to take possesion of theon?

Howland reed. Will he finaly involve himself in northern problems? Did the 2 northerns that witnessed robbs will traveled to him with the document? what can he be planning to do to help save the north?

What else can be happening in the north?

 

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Hello,

As I'm still learning English, maybe I didn't understand everything you said and likely you won't understand what I'll say  (I'm here to train my English), but I'll try to talk clearly with you.

ROOSE:  I didn't think about this. I think he count only with kartarks and Lady Dustin. Oh, he knows he has problems, but I don't think he has some plan yet. I guess that the Bolton's history is ending. Martin is wearing Euron a eviller and more dangerous character. And Martin made it clear that Stannis is pretty alive in books, what I reckon wouldn't happen if Stannis lost the battle.

RAMSAY: if ROOSE doesn't has a plan, Ramsay certainly doesn't. The bastard 's plan was only the pink letter full of fake news.

LADY DUSTIN: I'm sorry but I don't have a clue about what she 's up to. But I bet unharmed from this battle. She will be power as Roose as Stannis.

MANDERLY:  I think that the injury wasn't deep. So, he won't die right away but it may infect and he will have a slow and painful die. By the time Bolton and freys already have died, but his die will bring problems to Stannis that maybe don't get deal with the heirs too easily. 

IRON BORN: theon is alone. He was raised far from IRON Slands and lost Winterfell to Ramsay. No one cares about him.

HOWLAND REED:  I guess he just appear in last book.

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44 minutes ago, Garota Sem Rosto said:

Hello,

As I'm still learning English, maybe I didn't understand everything you said and likely you won't understand what I'll say  (I'm here to train my English), but I'll try to talk clearly with you.

ROOSE:  I didn't think about this. I think he count only with kartarks and Lady Dustin. Oh, he knows he has problems, but I don't think he has some plan yet. I guess that the Bolton's history is ending. Martin is wearing Euron a eviller and more dangerous character. And Martin made it clear that Stannis is pretty alive in books, what I reckon wouldn't happen if Stannis lost the battle.

RAMSAY: if ROOSE doesn't has a plan, Ramsay certainly doesn't. The bastard 's plan was only the pink letter full of fake news.

LADY DUSTIN: I'm sorry but I don't have a clue about what she 's up to. But I bet unharmed from this battle. She will be power as Roose as Stannis.

MANDERLY:  I think that the injury wasn't deep. So, he won't die right away but it may infect and he will have a slow and painful die. By the time Bolton and freys already have died, but his die will bring problems to Stannis that maybe don't get deal with the heirs too easily. 

IRON BORN: theon is alone. He was raised far from IRON Slands and lost Winterfell to Ramsay. No one cares about him.

HOWLAND REED:  I guess he just appear in last book.

Roose: it is possible... But I think he has some plan to get rid of the people he sent away. If theon and lady dustin know that nobody likes him he has to know too and must have a plan. Otherwise it appears he is doomed.

Ramsay: I just can t imagine him dieing alongside the freys in stannis clever plan. At least I think he will escape and hide somewhere...

Lady dustin: I agree we don t know what she is planning. But I think she hates ned and not the starks... Then she hates ramsay, the freys and is highly suspect of being planing something with wyman. So either she is spying on them for roose or she is on manderley's side

MAnderley: The big question is what is his secret army during while roose and stannis are fighting? Maybe he plans to take winterfell before stannis arrives?

Iron born: theon became very importante because he can invalidate the kingsmoot! So some IB really want him.

Howland reed: I don t think he will be hanging in the neck with the boltons ruling the north... Besides, alisanne mormont knows that her 2 sisters are safe with her mother! And her mother was with howland... Another interesting thing is that lyana mormont is a child, so for her entire life the of the north has been a baratheon. Why the insistence in the king in the north being a stark? Maybe she knows about robbs will? because her mother sent her a letter?

 

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Roose is fucked and he knows it. His success is circumstantial which is why Theon sees a look of fear on his face. Plus he hasnt heard from his maester that is with the Karstarks and Stannis so he has no idea if its a good idea to send the Freys and Manderly's to fight them but he has no choice but to send them. Plus Roose stated that he thinks Ramsay will murder any children he has with Fat Walda, hr also says in the same conversation with Reek that he doesnt think Ramsay will hold the North after he is gone so it makes me w/o der what Roose was thinking when he decided to start scheming against Robb in the first place if he expected his house to collapse anyway. Maybe he wanted House Bolton to go out with a bang so he decided to bring down house Stark. Who knows.

Lady Dustin is more intriguing because her story about the Starks she gives Theon is obviously just an excuse to find the crypts but there also must be some truth to this story if she did indeed hold men back from Robb over a family grudge, that being said, she must hate Ramsay more than she ever hated the Starks so her alliance with Roose is on borrowed time, she doesnt seem to have any interest in having more children (if she even still can) so much as she wants to right all the wrongs done to her, real or imagined. 

Manderly waited for his son to be returned for him before he started letting his plans take wing. Since he sent Davos to retrieve Rickon and he has ships hidden, his son and heir has to be in on all his plans. I dont know if he trusts any of the other lords besides Umber.

Ramsay is meant to be a wild card I think. Everything is coming to a head and he is quick to anger and quicker to respond to a slight. He is some-what cunning but also, impulsive and has no patience for alliances or working to make and maintain alliances. He is very similar to Joffrey in that he thinks everyone should bow to him and that fear and violence will solve everything.

I don't remember the status of the Ironborn who held Torrhen's square but Wex couldn't have been sent by them because he was at Winterfell when Ramsay sacked it and he wouldn't have been able to return to the Ironborn AND tail Rickon and Osha all the way to Skaagos or the port they left from to get to Skaagos. Wex must have known that his survival in the North rested on trading info on Rickons location to the Northerners for his own life and thankfully chose Manderly over the Karstarks or the Boltons. He was on an eastern port and the eastern houses are Manderly, Bolton, Karstark, and Umber. He might have considered the Wall as well but probably knew the,Nights Watch wouldn't be able to,give him what he wanted, even with Jon in charge who would have given almost anything for his brothers whereabouts. So he either told Umber or Manderly. I think Wex told Umber and they came to Manderly afterward because I can see Umber needing Manderly's help more than I see Manderly needing Umbers help.

Lastly, Howland won't bestir himself unless a POV character tries to pass the Neck or until he is called by who ever rules the North following the battle of Ice. Stannis may summon all the lords and remember that ravens can't find freshwater watch so someone will have to go summon Howland in person. But his first and most important job is to hold the Neck and that's where he will stay. Almost feel sorry for any left over Frey forces that try to retreat through their in the next book. They are always talking dirty about the crannogmen and they willbe at their mercy.

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57 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

Roose is fucked and he knows it. His success is circumstantial which is why Theon sees a look of fear on his face. Plus he hasnt heard from his maester that is with the Karstarks and Stannis so he has no idea if its a good idea to send the Freys and Manderly's to fight them but he has no choice but to send them. Plus Roose stated that he thinks Ramsay will murder any children he has with Fat Walda, hr also says in the same conversation with Reek that he doesnt think Ramsay will hold the North after he is gone so it makes me w/o der what Roose was thinking when he decided to start scheming against Robb in the first place if he expected his house to collapse anyway. Maybe he wanted House Bolton to go out with a bang so he decided to bring down house Stark. Who knows.

That is the problem! roose seems so fucked that he can t be. Maybe after 5 books and so many years we have all gotten pretty smart, but usually when something seems almost certain in asoiaf then it is likely it won t happen. I think roose was counting on manderley support because his son was a hostage and when he sees wyman is scheming against him he gets afraid. But him sending his 3 biggest problems in uniting the north away is suspicious... However if the freys are defeated he is doomed. So I really don t understand what he is thinking. The most I can imagine is him killing the leaders of the great houses in winterfell and take over their men. Meanwhile ramsay is harassing stannis until he gets to WF instead of openly fighting him.

57 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

Lady Dustin is more intriguing because her story about the Starks she gives Theon is obviously just an excuse to find the crypts but there also must be some truth to this story if she did indeed hold men back from Robb over a family grudge, that being said, she must hate Ramsay more than she ever hated the Starks so her alliance with Roose is on borrowed time, she doesnt seem to have any interest in having more children (if she even still can) so much as she wants to right all the wrongs done to her, real or imagined. 

But what if roose kills ramsay. Can he win her over?

57 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

Manderly waited for his son to be returned for him before he started letting his plans take wing. Since he sent Davos to retrieve Rickon and he has ships hidden, his son and heir has to be in on all his plans. I dont know if he trusts any of the other lords besides Umber.


He must tak with lady dustin about the swords in the tombs and we know he takes too long in the privy and that was how schemed before. As there are several houses that lost members in the RW He should be trying to win them over. I think if stannis defeats the freys easilly then when he gets to winterfell manderley will have conquered it with his hidden army and the support of the other houses inside winterfell.

57 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

I don't remember the status of the Ironborn who held Torrhen's square but Wex couldn't have been sent by them because he was at Winterfell when Ramsay sacked it and he wouldn't have been able to return to the Ironborn AND tail Rickon and Osha all the way to Skaagos or the port they left from to get to Skaagos. Wex must have known that his survival in the North rested on trading info on Rickons location to the Northerners for his own life and thankfully chose Manderly over the Karstarks or the Boltons. He was on an eastern port and the eastern houses are Manderly, Bolton, Karstark, and Umber. He might have considered the Wall as well but probably knew the,Nights Watch wouldn't be able to,give him what he wanted, even with Jon in charge who would have given almost anything for his brothers whereabouts. So he either told Umber or Manderly. I think Wex told Umber and they came to Manderly afterward because I can see Umber needing Manderly's help more than I see Manderly needing Umbers help.


However how could wex follow rickon for long and don t die from hunger? Or he hunts while following them and shagydog never smells him? I don t think he could have followed them for long...

And then wex is a mute! So if he delivers himself to manderley soldiers it is very difficult for him to tell them he knows where rickon is and even less probable that they will believe. And it is even harder for him to deliver himself directly to wyman... In adition, if he is so good at hunting in the north why would he deliver himself to some northerns instead of ironborn?

57 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

Lastly, Howland won't bestir himself unless a POV character tries to pass the Neck or until he is called by who ever rules the North following the battle of Ice. Stannis may summon all the lords and remember that ravens can't find freshwater watch so someone will have to go summon Howland in person. But his first and most important job is to hold the Neck and that's where he will stay. Almost feel sorry for any left over Frey forces that try to retreat through their in the next book. They are always talking dirty about the crannogmen and they willbe at their mercy.

He is defending the north from whom? the freys don t have much more men to send north and every other enemy is in winterfell. Besides he has maege mormont and other northmen that had important places in robbs army with him and he can send them to do something... Hell he can send some of his men to do something in the north....

And don t Forget that alysane mormont knows that her 2 older sisters are safe with her mother. So there must be some kind of comunication between her and the neck...

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40 minutes ago, divica said:

That is the problem! roose seems so fucked that he can t be. Maybe after 5 books and so many years we have all gotten pretty smart, but usually when something seems almost certain in asoiaf then it is likely it won t happen. I think roose was counting on manderley support because his son was a hostage and when he sees wyman is scheming against him he gets afraid. But him sending his 3 biggest problems in uniting the north away is suspicious... However if the freys are defeated he is doomed. So I really don t understand what he is thinking. The most I can imagine is him killing the leaders of the great houses in winterfell and take over their men. Meanwhile ramsay is harassing stannis until he gets to WF instead of openly fighting him.

But what if roose kills ramsay. Can he win her over?


He must tak with lady dustin about the swords in the tombs and we know he takes too long in the privy and that was how schemed before. As there are several houses that lost members in the RW He should be trying to win them over. I think if stannis defeats the freys easilly then when he gets to winterfell manderley will have conquered it with his hidden army and the support of the other houses inside winterfell.


However how could wex follow rickon for long and don t die from hunger? Or he hunts while following them and shagydog never smells him? I don t think he could have followed them for long...

And then wex is a mute! So if he delivers himself to manderley soldiers it is very difficult for him to tell them he knows where rickon is and even less probable that they will believe. And it is even harder for him to deliver himself directly to wyman... In adition, if he is so good at hunting in the north why would he deliver himself to some northerns instead of ironborn?

He is defending the north from whom? the freys don t have much more men to send north and every other enemy is in winterfell. Besides he has maege mormont and other northmen that had important places in robbs army with him and he can send them to do something... Hell he can send some of his men to do something in the north....

And don t Forget that alysane mormont knows that her 2 older sisters are safe with her mother. So there must be some kind of comunication between her and the neck...

On Wex, the only way he could have known where Rickon was for certain is if Wex saw which ship they got on and went out of his way to learn the destination of that ship. How else would Wex know where they are going? Osha doesn't come across as a fool, she wouldn't be just blabbing this information and Wex never would be gotten close enough to eavesdrop because Shaggydog would have picked up his scent because staying downwind won't help if you get that close. 

Roose killing Ramsay seems like the logical step for him because it ensures the safety of any Frey heirs he produces and it would secure the uneasiness that has been growing in his allies concerning Ramsay and his crispness. The only issue is that mind paying is frowned upon him so it is a lose-lose situation for Roose where Ramsay is concerned. Roose very well may set a trap for Ramsay or fake an accident for him. Maybe Roose was waiting for Ramsay to knock up fArya so he could get the heir he needed and be free to dispose of Ramsay before he ruins everything Roose has built for their house. That honestly sounds like the Roose Bolton thing to do. So without fArya secure in the castle waiting to get pregnant, Roose has no need of Ramsay there so he sends Ramsay away to get her back.

Concerning Howland, the fact of the matter is that we have no idea what his intentions are or how much he knows or doesn't know. He may have intercepted Neds bones and Robs will, he could be working with the BWB or trading info with them, Jojen could have shared a great number of green dreams with Howland and we know Howland believes them because that is why he sent both his children to Bran in the first place. So we don't know what he knows or intends and it is important to note that the range of possibility concerning his knowledge is bigger than most people because he could be less informed than anyone else since he lacks ravens but coukd know more than anyone depending on what kind of green dreams Jojen shared with him, likely it is a combination of both, he may be lacking common knowledge about current events in Westeros while at the same time knowing things that everyone (including us readers) dont know yet. Whatever his reasons are, I trust them.

 

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33 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

On Wex, the only way he could have known where Rickon was for certain is if Wex saw which ship they got on and went out of his way to learn the destination of that ship. How else would Wex know where they are going? Osha doesn't come across as a fool, she wouldn't be just blabbing this information and Wex never would be gotten close enough to eavesdrop because Shaggydog would have picked up his scent because staying downwind won't help if you get that close. 

But someone that is capable of following osha for several days and find food and the same time should be able to get back to the IB in the north instead of delivering himself to wyman.

Taking into account that he is a mute and that the IB have a very bad reputation in the north at the moment it sounds incredibly stupid that some soldiers will lose their time trying to understand what he is saying and presente him to wyman instead of just killing him. It makes more sense for him to be na envoy of the IB to wyman which is the strongest house after the boltons.

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34 minutes ago, divica said:

But someone that is capable of following osha for several days and find food and the same time should be able to get back to the IB in the north instead of delivering himself to wyman.

Taking into account that he is a mute and that the IB have a very bad reputation in the north at the moment it sounds incredibly stupid that some soldiers will lose their time trying to understand what he is saying and presente him to wyman instead of just killing him. It makes more sense for him to be na envoy of the IB to wyman which is the strongest house after the boltons.

My issue isnt your logic. Its the practicality of tracking Osha from Winterfell to a port on the narrow sea, taking that info, going all the way back to Torrhens square, for whatever reason the IB decide to give this info to Umber and Manderly instead of taking it back to the Iron Islands and send Sex back out on foot to Last Hearth or White Harbor. It seems like we have to jump through a lot of hoops for Wex to pull all that off as opposed to him going straight to Last Hearth or White Harbor and unless he is rocking a sigil, it shouldn't even be obvious that he is Ironborn unless he chooses to make it obvious that he is Ironborn.

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12 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

My issue isnt your logic. Its the practicality of tracking Osha from Winterfell to a port on the narrow sea, taking that info, going all the way back to Torrhens square, for whatever reason the IB decide to give this info to Umber and Manderly instead of taking it back to the Iron Islands and send Sex back out on foot to Last Hearth or White Harbor. It seems like we have to jump through a lot of hoops for Wex to pull all that off as opposed to him going straight to Last Hearth or White Harbor and unless he is rocking a sigil, it shouldn't even be obvious that he is Ironborn unless he chooses to make it obvious that he is Ironborn.

Even if they don t know he is iron born, how would he gain wyman's atention? Why would they believe a word he "says" and don t kill him before he can try to communicate? It is pretty weird that wyman and glover are taking the word of a mute iron born kid so seriously...

Then about the iron born. Don t Forget that euron won the kingsmoot and therefore if they spread the word euron would either ignore theon or kill him because he can invalidate the kingsmoot. So the dudes in Torrhens square have to get theon before going to the iron islands and depose euron. And we only have wyman word about how wex got there. He could have come with a party of iron born and propose some kind of deal in exchange for theon that wyman doesn t want stannis/davos to know.

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4 hours ago, divica said:

Even if they don t know he is iron born, how would he gain wyman's atention? Why would they believe a word he "says" and don t kill him before he can try to communicate? It is pretty weird that wyman and glover are taking the word of a mute iron born kid so seriously...

Then about the iron born. Don t Forget that euron won the kingsmoot and therefore if they spread the word euron would either ignore theon or kill him because he can invalidate the kingsmoot. So the dudes in Torrhens square have to get theon before going to the iron islands and depose euron. And we only have wyman word about how wex got there. He could have come with a party of iron born and propose some kind of deal in exchange for theon that wyman doesn t want stannis/davos to know.

That's plausible even though Euron has shown zero interest in the north and any remaining forces left there from what we've seen of him. That and you have to think that Manderly hasn't trusted Ramsay from the beginning. His forces were going at it with Ramsay's over Lady Hornwood's land and Wyman was trying to marry her before Ramsay kidnapped her and forced a marriage on her. Manderly must have heard what Ramsay did to her. Taking all that into account along with the fact that Manderly is very sharp and has about as much cunning as he does fat, Manderly must have suspected that Ramsay had a hand in the sacking of Winterfell or that there is more to it than the official story of what the Ironborn did to Winterfell (which is given to the rest of the north by Ramsay which Manderly must also be aware of). So the next logical step for Wyman is to put out an order to his men to search for any Winterfell survivors and bring them straight to him. At this point all Wex has to do is approach Manderly lands and seek an audience with Wyman Manderly. As soon as he gets it across to whoever he presents himself to that he was a Winterfell survivor, they will bring him straight to Manderly for further questioning. With the only official report of Winterfell's fall coming from Ramsay Snow, it wouldn't make any sense to me if the other houses werent attempting to round up any Ironborn survivors they could find along with anyone else claiming to come from WF. Only Ramsay did a damn good job of slaughtering everyone at WF and the Winter town so they have all searched in vain, until Wex strolled up looking for a safe haven. And Wex would be taking a huge risk going back across Hornwood, Bolton, and Stark lands to get back to Torrhens square to the Ironborn with Bolton men out looking for survivors and the Stark boys. Plus this is all under the assumption that Wex is certain there are still Ironborn in Torrhens square. He could have walked into a tavern and picked up the location of the Ironborn by eavesdropping on some gossip but even then he would have to believe the information and act on it, plus, again, Ramsay's forces are scouring the country side for the Stark boys and potential escapees from the sack of WF, I doubt a group of Ironborn would make it across all those lands infested with Bolton men back to White Harbor. It would be infinitely easier to travel south along the coast to White Harbor safely from what ever port he tailed Rickon and Osha too where he learned where they were going. It sounds like a good idea on Wex's part to get back to his people but when you look at the map and consider the events taking place on it during the timeline in which he would do this, it looks like an impossible task. One thing I will say in your favor is that the timeline likely allows for him to make the journey back and forth that you propose because a lot of time passes between the sack of Winterfell were we last see Wex and Davos' s arrival at White Harbor.

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12 minutes ago, Buddhakin said:

That's plausible even though Euron has shown zero interest in the north and any remaining forces left there from what we've seen of him. That and you have to think that Manderly hasn't trusted Ramsay from the beginning. His forces were going at it with Ramsay's over Lady Hornwood's land and Wyman was trying to marry her before Ramsay kidnapped her and forced a marriage on her. Manderly must have heard what Ramsay did to her. Taking all that into account along with the fact that Manderly is very sharp and has about as much cunning as he does fat, Manderly must have suspected that Ramsay had a hand in the sacking of Winterfell or that there is more to it than the official story of what the Ironborn did to Winterfell (which is given to the rest of the north by Ramsay which Manderly must also be aware of). So the next logical step for Wyman is to put out an order to his men to search for any Winterfell survivors and bring them straight to him. At this point all Wex has to do is approach Manderly lands and seek an audience with Wyman Manderly. As soon as he gets it across to whoever he presents himself to that he was a Winterfell survivor, they will bring him straight to Manderly for further questioning. With the only official report of Winterfell's fall coming from Ramsay Snow, it wouldn't make any sense to me if the other houses werent attempting to round up any Ironborn survivors they could find along with anyone else claiming to come from WF. Only Ramsay did a damn good job of slaughtering everyone at WF and the Winter town so they have all searched in vain, until Wex strolled up looking for a safe haven. And Wex would be taking a huge risk going back across Hornwood, Bolton, and Stark lands to get back to Torrhens square to the Ironborn with Bolton men out looking for survivors and the Stark boys. Plus this is all under the assumption that Wex is certain there are still Ironborn in Torrhens square. He could have walked into a tavern and picked up the location of the Ironborn by eavesdropping on some gossip but even then he would have to believe the information and act on it, plus, again, Ramsay's forces are scouring the country side for the Stark boys and potential escapees from the sack of WF, I doubt a group of Ironborn would make it across all those lands infested with Bolton men back to White Harbor. It would be infinitely easier to travel south along the coast to White Harbor safely from what ever port he tailed Rickon and Osha too where he learned where they were going. It sounds like a good idea on Wex's part to get back to his people but when you look at the map and consider the events taking place on it during the timeline in which he would do this, it looks like an impossible task. One thing I will say in your favor is that the timeline likely allows for him to make the journey back and forth that you propose because a lot of time passes between the sack of Winterfell were we last see Wex and Davos' s arrival at White Harbor.

Most of what you say is true.

Just a coupleof things. Euron doesn t care about the north because he thinks theon is dead (or doesn t know he can invalidate the kingsmoot), it is a poor place, cold and without food. It is a pretty awful place during winter.

How unlikely is it that the only survivor from WF that wyman gets also knows where rickon is? And gives that information for free? If wex is somewhat smart he knows how valuable the location of rickon is. That is actually a good for him to return to some iron born.

But you might be right because wex would need to travel a lot through dangerous places and it might be easier to negotiate directly with the boltons for theon's release... 

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you think Wex is still loyal to the ironborn? I just assumed he was concerned about saving his own ass by trading valuable information to the northerners in exchange for amnesty. Theon kinda treated Wex like shit anyway. I can see Podrick Payne pulling some golden squire acts like this for Brienne or Tyrion but I didnt think Wex was that loyal. The Ironborn were never particularly loyal to Theon any way because they didnt see him as one of them. I never considered Wex was concerned about Theon, maybe he is.

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King Robb Stark arrives at the Twins about three weeks to one month before the first day of the first moon of the 300th year since Aegon’s Conquest…

If we assume that Robb intended to march three days after the wedding, and that Moat Cailin was at least 500 miles from the Twins, we can assume that Robb expected to be in position to attack Moat Cailin within one month of the red wedding.

At this time, Howland Reed is at Greywater Watch, waiting to guide Robb through the Neck to recapture Moat Cailin and to reopen the North to Robb’s host. It is possible, even likely, that Hallis Mollen and a small detachment of men from Winterfell are there as well, with the bones of Eddard Stark.

Lord Roose Bolton is at the Twins with Robb. His natural son Ramsay Snow is at the Dreadfort, awaiting Robb’s judgment. We should assume that Jonelle Cerwyn is under Roose’s protection since her father told Robb that she would accompany him south, and since he was mortally wounded fighting under Roose’s command at the Battle of the Green Fork. Ramsay has claimed Hornwood by right of a forced marriage to the Late Lord Halys’s widow, the late Lady Donella Manderly. Lady Barbrey Dustin is at Barrowton. She is Roose’s goodsister by his previous marriage. Lord Rodrik Ryswell is at the Rills. Rodrik’s surviving daughter is Lady Barbrey Dustin. His other daughter was Lord Roose Bolton’s second wife. Rodrik’s three sons are with him at the Rills. The only surviving son of Lord Rickard Karstark, who was executed by Robb at Riverrun, Harrion Karstark is held captive by Randyll Tarly at Maidenpool. His sister Alys remains at the Twins with her uncle, Arnolf and his sons and grandsons. The young Lady Eddara Tallhart is held captive by Dagmer Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square. Her aunt Berena Hornwood and Berena’s son and daughter are also held captive at Torrhen’s Square.

Bolton has come to blows with Manderly over the Hornwood succession issue.

Lord Wyman Manderly is at White Harbor. His eldest son Wylis is held captive by Gregor Clegane at Harrenhal. Wylis’s wife, Leona Woolfield, and their two daughters are at White Harbor. Wyman’s younger son Wendel will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lady Lyessa Flint is at Widow’s Watch. She is a Manderly ally. Her son Robin is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lord Ondrew Locke is at Oldcastle. He is a Manderly ally. Donnell Locke, who appears to be Ondrew’s son, is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be killed at the red wedding. Galbart Glover, Master of Deepwood Motte is at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Galbart’s brother Robett is at White Harbor, presumably waiting to join Robb’s host after it recaptures Moat Cailin. Robett’s wife, Sybelle Locke, and their two children are held captive at Deepwood Motte by Asha Greyjoy. Also held captive at Deepwood Motte is Glover’s ward, Larence Snow, natural son of the late Lord Halys Hornwood. A sister, cousin or aunt of Galbart was Jorah Mormont’s first wife. Lady Maege Mormont of Bear Island is with Galbart at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Her Daughter Dacey is with Robb. She will soon be slain at the red wedding. Maege’s daughters Lyra and Jorelle are with Maege. Maege’s daughter Alysanne is at Bear Island with her daughter, son, and youngest sister, Lyanna. Manderly and Umber have been working together to build a fleet. The Greatjon, Lord Jon Umber is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be imprisoned after the red wedding. His son, the Smalljon, will soon be killed during the red wedding. His uncles Mors and Hoster are at Last Hearth.

We know that some Riverlanders and, presumably, some Northmen escape the red wedding, so I think we can assume that some Northmen may have tried to go up the causeway. Within a couple of weeks, then, news of the red wedding would have reached Howland, Maege, and Galbart at Greywater Watch. We should assume that word has already spread to the principal houses of the north by raven, and that within a month of the new year, everyone of consequence should know of the red wedding. Anybody north of the Neck with half a brain should be able to determine, or at least suspect, that Roose and Walder conspired with Tywin Lannister to cast Robb down.

So, on one side we have Bolton, Dustin, Ryswell, and Karstark, with soft support from Cerwyn, Hornwood, and Tallhart. On the other side we have Manderly, Flint, and Locke, with Glover, Mormont, and possibly, Umber. At this point, I don’t see any of these great houses looking to garner material support from the crannogmen, the mountain clans, or the Skagossons. And due to operation security, nobody north of the Neck should know that Maege and Galbart are at Greywater Watch.

Although we never encounter him directly in the story, we are led to believe that Howland is very loyal to House Stark and a close follower of the Old Gods, and Frey is an enemy of the crannogmen, so, we can assume that Howland will seek to oppose Bolton and Frey. The key to linking Greywater Watch and White Harbor is Galbart. Galbart knows that Robett is in White Harbor.

So, does Galbart reach out to his brother at White Harbor? It would take Galbart about two weeks to reach White Harbor from the Neck. Presumably, Wyman brings Robett into his plan. If Galbart goes to White Harbor, Robett surely tells Galbart what Wyman is up to. Does Maege go with Galbart to White Harbor? Some have suggested that Manderly uses Galbart and Maege as envoys, but I don’t think either would be so willing to do this while the Ironmen occupy Deepwood Motte and hold Glovers captive. Wyman appears to know who is on his side, and we will see evidence at Barrowton and Winterfell to suggest that Wyman courts other prominent Northmen on his own. Galbart must be preoccupied with his own seat, and Maege also has to be concerned about the state of affairs in the northwest. But if they do return to the northwest, why do they remain covert?

At the other end of the Kingsroad, we have Mance Rayder attacking Castle Black and King Stannis Baratheon arriving to break the siege. A couple of weeks later, and Jon Snow is elected Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. Over the next few weeks, Karstark feigns fealty to Stannis, (but the newly legitimized Ramsay Bolton hosts Arnolf Karstark, who is scheming to seize Karhold from Harrion, and Hother Umber at the Dreadfort), and Stannis burns the presumed Mance. Assuming Galbart and Maege have gone to White Harbor, Maege will now be able to contact Bear Island by raven. Roose is not yet a threat to Bear Island, and given Lyanna’s response to Stannis, I think we can assume that Maege tells her daughters not to pay homage to Stannis.

And then, Davos arrives in White Harbor. By this time, news of the red wedding and Stannis breaking the wildings at the Wall would have spread throughout the North. The soon-to-be-pies are already in White Harbor threatening Wyman Manderly, and the commonly held view is that Wyman would join Bolton and Frey. A wedding has been agreed to between Manderly and Frey, and Gregor Clegane’s men still hold Wylis Manderly hostage at Harrenhal. Wyman has built the fleet with Umber, and he is raising men. Robett is already in the city, and he has been trying to raise men too (presumably to take back Deepwood Motte from the Ironmen, otherwise the Freys surely would have demanded his head for treason), but unsuccessfully.

Meanwhile, Dustin and Ryswell have already burned the remaining ships of the Iron Fleet on the Fever River, and Ramsay and Hothor are already riding south with Hornwood and Cerwyn to join them at Moat Cailin. Some remaining Tallhart men will join Bolton too, but the Tallhartlings and Berena are still held captive by Dagmar Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square.

Back at Castle Black, Mors has pledged to aid Stannis so long as he is not forced to fight Hothor, and Arnolf has encouraged Stannis to attack the Dreadfort, apparently, so he and Bolton can crush Stannis outside the walls. Even without knowing of Arnolf’s treachery yet, Jon counsels Stannis to avoid the possible trap, and to liberate Deepwood Motte instead, winning the mountain clans to his cause on the way. Now, keep in mind that Mormont should not know about this due to operation security, but it will take time, perhaps two months, for Stannis to court the mountain clans and to liberate Deepwood Motte.

About two weeks later, Davos is presumably executed by Manderly at White Harbor. And Jaime Lannister has Ronnet Connington deliver Wylis to Maidenpool and on to White Harbor.

Nearly four months after the Red Wedding, Reek helps Ramsay liberate Moat Cailin, and Roose returns to the North, marching to Barrowton. Upon his arrival, he summons all leal lords to Barrowton to celebrate the wedding of Arya Stark and Ramsay Bolton. 

Davos is then dispatched to Skagos. The travel time by ship should take less than two weeks. So, unless he encounters difficulty, Davos could return to White Harbor with Rickon after about a month or so.

By the time Manderly arrives at Barrowton, or shortly thereafter, it is possible that Davos has returned from Skagos with Rickon, or at least, that Davos has sent word back to White Harbor that he has Rickon.

Perhaps, at this time, Maege sends a bird from White Harbor to Bear Island and instructs Alysanne to liberate Deepwood Motte.

Perhaps also, Galbart, Robett, Maege, Howland, and Hallis Mollen are with a second host of Northmen and Davos and Rickon.

Stannis takes Deepwood Motte shortly thereafter, and within a week or so, Jon agrees to send Mance after his presumed sister. Roose learns that Stannis has left the Wall, and he realizes that he should seize Winterfell to lure Stannis into attacking him there to be trapped by Arnolf Karstark. About three weeks later, Ramsay weds the presumed Arya at Winterfell, and then Stannis finally departs from Deepwood Motte. Up north, Selyse, Tycho Nestoris, and Alys Karstark arrive at Castle Black.

A little more than six months have passed since the red wedding by the time Stannis arrives at the crofter’s village near Winterfell.

In the meantime, the Northmen with Roose are becoming concerned over Ramsay’s treatment of the presumed Arya.

Since Barrowton, Roose has known that he cannot trust Cerwyn and Tallhart and, presumably, Hornwood.

Roose knows that Wyman plots betrayal, and he suspects that Hothor Umber may stand with Wyman. Then, we see Hothor talking quietly with Harwood Stout, who is sworn to Dustin.

The George gives us a hint as to the coup-plotting Wyman might be about with the snowy lords described by Reek to include Wyman Manderly, Harwood Stout, Barbrey Dustin, and Hother Umber.

Barbrey has Reek take her into the crypts, presumably to look up upon the Stark tombs, but she takes note of the missing swords that Bran et al. took from the crypts. This suggests that Barbrey could have been looking to substantiate whether Wyman already has Rickon.

Arnolf arrives at the crofter’s village less than two weeks after Stannis. And that’s when the mysterious murders begin at Winterfell. Within a few days, Mors Umber arrives, and immediately after Mors sounds his horns, Abel’s washerwomen compel Theon to meet with Mance Rayder, who has been asking about the crypts. The tension between Frey and Mandery boils over the next day, and Theon and Jeyne escape. Three days later, Mors takes them, along with Tycho and Asha’s men from Deepwood Motte to Stannis’s camp. In the Theon spoiler chapter,

Spoiler

we see Stannis learn of the Karstark plot, and we see that he intends to use the terrain to his advantage. We also see that he might be planning a ruse by faking his death.

Assuming Ramsay is the author of the so called pink letter, we can assume that Ramsay believes that Stannis is dead, and that Stannis’s host has been defeated. Ramsay has recovered or has been given Lightbringer, and he has beheaded and flayed Abel’s washerwomen. He has stuck Mance in a crow cage, but he may have left Mance alive. He believes that Stannis has sent the presumed Arya and Reek to Castle Black, and he wants them returned. He must know that Jon will recognize Jeyne Pool, and Theon is still a potentially valuable hostage. But we know that Stannis had no intention of sending Theon anywhere, which further suggests that Stannis has fooled Ramsay. Ramsay demands Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre, as well as Mance Rayder’s presumed son be turned over to him. Otherwise, he threatens to march on Castle Black. Ramsay has Jon in a tight spot since Jon has meddled in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms, and Jon attempts to marshal the wildings, but, of course, Bowen Marsh has had enough.

How did the ruse at the crofter’s village play out?

Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots?

Will the snowy lords and their snowy sentinels cast Ramsay down and allow Stannis to enter Winterfell?

Are Galbart, Maege, Howland, and Hallis on the other side of Winterfell with Davos and Rickon?

Will Selyse and Melisandre despair and burn Shireen?

How long will Jon Snow be out of commission?

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19 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

King Robb Stark arrives at the Twins about three weeks to one month before the first day of the first moon of the 300th year since Aegon’s Conquest…

If we assume that Robb intended to march three days after the wedding, and that Moat Cailin was at least 500 miles from the Twins, we can assume that Robb expected to be in position to attack Moat Cailin within one month of the red wedding.

At this time, Howland Reed is at Greywater Watch, waiting to guide Robb through the Neck to recapture Moat Cailin and to reopen the North to Robb’s host. It is possible, even likely, that Hallis Mollen and a small detachment of men from Winterfell are there as well, with the bones of Eddard Stark.

Lord Roose Bolton is at the Twins with Robb. His natural son Ramsay Snow is at the Dreadfort, awaiting Robb’s judgment. We should assume that Jonelle Cerwyn is under Roose’s protection since her father told Robb that she would accompany him south, and since he was mortally wounded fighting under Roose’s command at the Battle of the Green Fork. Ramsay has claimed Hornwood by right of a forced marriage to the Late Lord Halys’s widow, the late Lady Donella Manderly. Lady Barbrey Dustin is at Barrowton. She is Roose’s goodsister by his previous marriage. Lord Rodrik Ryswell is at the Rills. Rodrik’s surviving daughter is Lady Barbrey Dustin. His other daughter was Lord Roose Bolton’s second wife. Rodrik’s three sons are with him at the Rills. The only surviving son of Lord Rickard Karstark, who was executed by Robb at Riverrun, Harrion Karstark is held captive by Randyll Tarly at Maidenpool. His sister Alys remains at the Twins with her uncle, Arnolf and his sons and grandsons. The young Lady Eddara Tallhart is held captive by Dagmer Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square. Her aunt Berena Hornwood and Berena’s son and daughter are also held captive at Torrhen’s Square.

Bolton has come to blows with Manderly over the Hornwood succession issue.

Lord Wyman Manderly is at White Harbor. His eldest son Wylis is held captive by Gregor Clegane at Harrenhal. Wylis’s wife, Leona Woolfield, and their two daughters are at White Harbor. Wyman’s younger son Wendel will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lady Lyessa Flint is at Widow’s Watch. She is a Manderly ally. Her son Robin is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lord Ondrew Locke is at Oldcastle. He is a Manderly ally. Donnell Locke, who appears to be Ondrew’s son, is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be killed at the red wedding. Galbart Glover, Master of Deepwood Motte is at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Galbart’s brother Robett is at White Harbor, presumably waiting to join Robb’s host after it recaptures Moat Cailin. Robett’s wife, Sybelle Locke, and their two children are held captive at Deepwood Motte by Asha Greyjoy. Also held captive at Deepwood Motte is Glover’s ward, Larence Snow, natural son of the late Lord Halys Hornwood. A sister, cousin or aunt of Galbart was Jorah Mormont’s first wife. Lady Maege Mormont of Bear Island is with Galbart at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Her Daughter Dacey is with Robb. She will soon be slain at the red wedding. Maege’s daughters Lyra and Jorelle are with Maege. Maege’s daughter Alysanne is at Bear Island with her daughter, son, and youngest sister, Lyanna. Manderly and Umber have been working together to build a fleet. The Greatjon, Lord Jon Umber is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be imprisoned after the red wedding. His son, the Smalljon, will soon be killed during the red wedding. His uncles Mors and Hoster are at Last Hearth.

We know that some Riverlanders and, presumably, some Northmen escape the red wedding, so I think we can assume that some Northmen may have tried to go up the causeway. Within a couple of weeks, then, news of the red wedding would have reached Howland, Maege, and Galbart at Greywater Watch. We should assume that word has already spread to the principal houses of the north by raven, and that within a month of the new year, everyone of consequence should know of the red wedding. Anybody north of the Neck with half a brain should be able to determine, or at least suspect, that Roose and Walder conspired with Tywin Lannister to cast Robb down.

So, on one side we have Bolton, Dustin, Ryswell, and Karstark, with soft support from Cerwyn, Hornwood, and Tallhart. On the other side we have Manderly, Flint, and Locke, with Glover, Mormont, and possibly, Umber. At this point, I don’t see any of these great houses looking to garner material support from the crannogmen, the mountain clans, or the Skagossons. And due to operation security, nobody north of the Neck should know that Maege and Galbart are at Greywater Watch.

Although we never encounter him directly in the story, we are led to believe that Howland is very loyal to House Stark and a close follower of the Old Gods, and Frey is an enemy of the crannogmen, so, we can assume that Howland will seek to oppose Bolton and Frey. The key to linking Greywater Watch and White Harbor is Galbart. Galbart knows that Robett is in White Harbor.

So, does Galbart reach out to his brother at White Harbor? It would take Galbart about two weeks to reach White Harbor from the Neck. Presumably, Wyman brings Robett into his plan. If Galbart goes to White Harbor, Robett surely tells Galbart what Wyman is up to. Does Maege go with Galbart to White Harbor? Some have suggested that Manderly uses Galbart and Maege as envoys, but I don’t think either would be so willing to do this while the Ironmen occupy Deepwood Motte and hold Glovers captive. Wyman appears to know who is on his side, and we will see evidence at Barrowton and Winterfell to suggest that Wyman courts other prominent Northmen on his own. Galbart must be preoccupied with his own seat, and Maege also has to be concerned about the state of affairs in the northwest. But if they do return to the northwest, why do they remain covert?

At the other end of the Kingsroad, we have Mance Rayder attacking Castle Black and King Stannis Baratheon arriving to break the siege. A couple of weeks later, and Jon Snow is elected Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. Over the next few weeks, Karstark feigns fealty to Stannis, (but the newly legitimized Ramsay Bolton hosts Arnolf Karstark, who is scheming to seize Karhold from Harrion, and Hother Umber at the Dreadfort), and Stannis burns the presumed Mance. Assuming Galbart and Maege have gone to White Harbor, Maege will now be able to contact Bear Island by raven. Roose is not yet a threat to Bear Island, and given Lyanna’s response to Stannis, I think we can assume that Maege tells her daughters not to pay homage to Stannis.

And then, Davos arrives in White Harbor. By this time, news of the red wedding and Stannis breaking the wildings at the Wall would have spread throughout the North. The soon-to-be-pies are already in White Harbor threatening Wyman Manderly, and the commonly held view is that Wyman would join Bolton and Frey. A wedding has been agreed to between Manderly and Frey, and Gregor Clegane’s men still hold Wylis Manderly hostage at Harrenhal. Wyman has built the fleet with Umber, and he is raising men. Robett is already in the city, and he has been trying to raise men too (presumably to take back Deepwood Motte from the Ironmen, otherwise the Freys surely would have demanded his head for treason), but unsuccessfully.

Meanwhile, Dustin and Ryswell have already burned the remaining ships of the Iron Fleet on the Fever River, and Ramsay and Hothor are already riding south with Hornwood and Cerwyn to join them at Moat Cailin. Some remaining Tallhart men will join Bolton too, but the Tallhartlings and Berena are still held captive by Dagmar Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square.

Back at Castle Black, Mors has pledged to aid Stannis so long as he is not forced to fight Hothor, and Arnolf has encouraged Stannis to attack the Dreadfort, apparently, so he and Bolton can crush Stannis outside the walls. Even without knowing of Arnolf’s treachery yet, Jon counsels Stannis to avoid the possible trap, and to liberate Deepwood Motte instead, winning the mountain clans to his cause on the way. Now, keep in mind that Mormont should not know about this due to operation security, but it will take time, perhaps two months, for Stannis to court the mountain clans and to liberate Deepwood Motte.

About two weeks later, Davos is presumably executed by Manderly at White Harbor. And Jaime Lannister has Ronnet Connington deliver Wylis to Maidenpool and on to White Harbor.

Nearly four months after the Red Wedding, Reek helps Ramsay liberate Moat Cailin, and Roose returns to the North, marching to Barrowton. Upon his arrival, he summons all leal lords to Barrowton to celebrate the wedding of Arya Stark and Ramsay Bolton. 

Davos is then dispatched to Skagos. The travel time by ship should take less than two weeks. So, unless he encounters difficulty, Davos could return to White Harbor with Rickon after about a month or so.

By the time Manderly arrives at Barrowton, or shortly thereafter, it is possible that Davos has returned from Skagos with Rickon, or at least, that Davos has sent word back to White Harbor that he has Rickon.

Perhaps, at this time, Maege sends a bird from White Harbor to Bear Island and instructs Alysanne to liberate Deepwood Motte.

Perhaps also, Galbart, Robett, Maege, Howland, and Hallis Mollen are with a second host of Northmen and Davos and Rickon.

Stannis takes Deepwood Motte shortly thereafter, and within a week or so, Jon agrees to send Mance after his presumed sister. Roose learns that Stannis has left the Wall, and he realizes that he should seize Winterfell to lure Stannis into attacking him there to be trapped by Arnolf Karstark. About three weeks later, Ramsay weds the presumed Arya at Winterfell, and then Stannis finally departs from Deepwood Motte. Up north, Selyse, Tycho Nestoris, and Alys Karstark arrive at Castle Black.

A little more than six months have passed since the red wedding by the time Stannis arrives at the crofter’s village near Winterfell.

In the meantime, the Northmen with Roose are becoming concerned over Ramsay’s treatment of the presumed Arya.

Since Barrowton, Roose has known that he cannot trust Cerwyn and Tallhart and, presumably, Hornwood.

Roose knows that Wyman plots betrayal, and he suspects that Hothor Umber may stand with Wyman. Then, we see Hothor talking quietly with Harwood Stout, who is sworn to Dustin.

The George gives us a hint as to the coup-plotting Wyman might be about with the snowy lords described by Reek to include Wyman Manderly, Harwood Stout, Barbrey Dustin, and Hother Umber.

Barbrey has Reek take her into the crypts, presumably to look up upon the Stark tombs, but she takes note of the missing swords that Bran et al. took from the crypts. This suggests that Barbrey could have been looking to substantiate whether Wyman already has Rickon.

Arnolf arrives at the crofter’s village less than two weeks after Stannis. And that’s when the mysterious murders begin at Winterfell. Within a few days, Mors Umber arrives, and immediately after Mors sounds his horns, Abel’s washerwomen compel Theon to meet with Mance Rayder, who has been asking about the crypts. The tension between Frey and Mandery boils over the next day, and Theon and Jeyne escape. Three days later, Mors takes them, along with Tycho and Asha’s men from Deepwood Motte to Stannis’s camp. In the Theon spoiler chapter,

  Hide contents

we see Stannis learn of the Karstark plot, and we see that he intends to use the terrain to his advantage. We also see that he might be planning a ruse by faking his death.

Assuming Ramsay is the author of the so called pink letter, we can assume that Ramsay believes that Stannis is dead, and that Stannis’s host has been defeated. Ramsay has recovered or has been given Lightbringer, and he has beheaded and flayed Abel’s washerwomen. He has stuck Mance in a crow cage, but he may have left Mance alive. He believes that Stannis has sent the presumed Arya and Reek to Castle Black, and he wants them returned. He must know that Jon will recognize Jeyne Pool, and Theon is still a potentially valuable hostage. But we know that Stannis had no intention of sending Theon anywhere, which further suggests that Stannis has fooled Ramsay. Ramsay demands Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre, as well as Mance Rayder’s presumed son be turned over to him. Otherwise, he threatens to march on Castle Black. Ramsay has Jon in a tight spot since Jon has meddled in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms, and Jon attempts to marshal the wildings, but, of course, Bowen Marsh has had enough.

How did the ruse at the crofter’s village play out?

Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots?

Will the snowy lords and their snowy sentinels cast Ramsay down and allow Stannis to enter Winterfell?

Are Galbart, Maege, Howland, and Hallis on the other side of Winterfell with Davos and Rickon?

Will Selyse and Melisandre despair and burn Shireen?

How long will Jon Snow be out of commission?

I think you have some things in your timeline slightly off but there is one thing that we should add.

Mance doesn t know that jon sent val to tormund and that 4K wildlings "joined" the watch. So unless someone is sending ravens to the boltons nobody should know about the wildlings at the Wall (nicho left before alys wedding so it was before val arrived and stannis has been marching for a lot of time).

Then we know that wyman has a fleet and acording to a pj vídeo davos saw nicho boats at white harbor (don t want to go look for the book quote) so wyman might be have sent people to essos to hire sellswords (with IB Money) to retake the north for example.

Then if stannis reaches winterfell after having defeated the freys the boltons are toasted. with enemies outside and inside they don t have any chance.

If rickon is indeed found I am more curious about what will happen next. Rickon is 5 years old, he can t be lord/king when the north is being attacked by the others and becomes and enemy of the IT... So after defeated the boltons will some lord like manderley try to marry rickon to a relative and be in charge until rickon is old enough? What will people do about robb's will? I think I would like that rickon is dead and he is livng inside shaggydog. It would simplify things...

And I hope we will finally have howland reed appear. I think it is time.

 

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On 1/4/2018 at 6:01 PM, divica said:

Lets start with roose. He just sent away his biggest problems in unifying the people in winterfell (ramsay-everybody hates, freys-everybody hates and maderleys that are his biggest enemy). So can he be planning something? Or sending the freys out was bad for him? Lets remember that stannis badly outnumbers the men roose sent, but he was expecting the karstarks to betray stannis...

He sent Manderly's and Frey's men into the freezing winter to fight Stannis and weaken the two factions that are causing all his problems 

On 1/4/2018 at 6:01 PM, divica said:

Then Lady Dustin. She clearly hates the starks and dislikes the freys. So she could be a good Bolton suporter, but she also hates ramsay... So what is she planning? Is she scheming with roose to kill the Manderlys, freys and ramsay and then marry roose? Or will she be on tem stark/stannis?

She does not really hate the starks. She holds a grudge against Lord Rickard for not letting her marry His heir to winterfell. She was married of to  house Dustin, and she hated Ned for bringing her dead husband's horse home instead of his bones. 

On 1/4/2018 at 6:01 PM, divica said:

Ramsay. Is ramsay planning anything? Like letting the freys and manderleys deal with stannis and then kill them all? Marching to deepwod motte and retake the place? harass stannis army while he travels to winterfel and use 20 good men to burn stannis suplies?

 He is a crude schemer. His dad sent the Manderlys  out. The 20 good men is a show thing and mentioning it can get you in trouble with the Mods. 

On 1/4/2018 at 6:01 PM, divica said:

Manderley. We know he has a fleet and lots of men hidden. However he was injured in the neck... will this injury have an effect in his schemes? like, does anybody else know what he is planning? And what is he planning?

He would have to trust his plan with his right hand lords. He plans to slowly sow dissent in the winterfell ranks and use it to destabilize the bolton alliance, ally with Stannis and put Rickon on the throne of winterfell 

On 1/4/2018 at 6:01 PM, divica said:

Iron born. Did they sent wex to wyman to negotiate and Exchange of hostages? Like theon for the location of rickon and their northern hostages? What effect will this have on stannis army if some northerns demand to take possesion of theon?

Wex can't speak or read. He had to be educated by Manderly just to communicate. He was given to Theon as an insult. It makes no sense that he was a messenger. And the whole point as stated in book 5 is that Wyman will ally with Stannis as long as stannis agrees to put Rickon in Winterfell as lord of the north. I think a re-read will answer most of your questions.

On 1/4/2018 at 6:01 PM, divica said:

Howland reed. Will he finaly involve himself in northern problems? Did the 2 northerns that witnessed robbs will traveled to him with the document? what can he be planning to do to help save the north?

GRRM said he will, and yes, The most plausible explanation is that Robb's will is in the neck with the Crannogmen

On 1/4/2018 at 6:01 PM, divica said:

What else can be happening in the north?

An impending invasion by the others. Possibly  the grand northern conspiracy to put the blood of Ned Stark in winterfell  

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16 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

He sent Manderly's and Frey's men into the freezing winter to fight Stannis and weaken the two factions that are causing all his problems 

But he has to know that they won t fight together against stannis. So stannis will have much more soldiers than them. In addition, if the freys are defeated and stannis reaches winterfell the boltons are doomed. So don t you think that he sending these 3 bad elements to scheme something to unite the north with him?

16 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

She does not really hate the starks. She holds a grudge against Lord Rickard for not letting her marry His heir to winterfell. She was married of to  house Dustin, and she hated Ned for bringing her dead husband's horse home instead of his bones. 

So you think she would join the northern conspiracy?

16 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

He would have to trust his plan with his right hand lords. He plans to slowly sow dissent in the winterfell ranks and use it to destabilize the bolton alliance, ally with Stannis and put Rickon on the throne of winterfell 

Does he really want to unite with stannis? Do you think wyman or any other northern lord wants to fight the 7 kingdoms to put stannis in the IT? Specially taking into account it is winter and the north has to take care of itself? And what will the northern lords do when they learn about robb's will? would they continue to support stannis?

16 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Wex can't speak or read. He had to be educated by Manderly just to communicate. He was given to Theon as an insult. It makes no sense that he was a messenger. And the whole point as stated in book 5 is that Wyman will ally with Stannis as long as stannis agrees to put Rickon in Winterfell as lord of the north. I think a re-read will answer most of your questions.

Just because wyman said so doesn t mean he plans to do so. With rickon and all the northern houses (except the boltons) supporting him he doesn t need stannis. I would even say that a Southern king with fanatics that want to burn the weirwoods and the unbelievers is a very unwanted person...

We saw how ther notherns in the army reacted to the burnings and what they think of r'hllor...

16 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

GRRM said he will, and yes, The most plausible explanation is that Robb's will is in the neck with the Crannogmen

An impending invasion by the others. Possibly  the grand northern conspiracy to put the blood of Ned Stark in winterfell  

yay we will see howland! But don t you think that robb's will will interfere with wyman's plans? Or even divide the north if rickon is found? There are a lot of pros and cons for supporting either rickon or jon and it is likely that manderley would want to marry rickon to one of his grandaughters and be the warden of the north until rickon grows while howland and robb's more loyal men would want to put jon in charge of the north (and riverlands)...

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4 hours ago, divica said:

I think you have some things in your timeline slightly off but there is one thing that we should add.

Mance doesn t know that jon sent val to tormund and that 4K wildlings "joined" the watch. So unless someone is sending ravens to the boltons nobody should know about the wildlings at the Wall (nicho left before alys wedding so it was before val arrived and stannis has been marching for a lot of time).

Then we know that wyman has a fleet and acording to a pj vídeo davos saw nicho boats at white harbor (don t want to go look for the book quote) so wyman might be have sent people to essos to hire sellswords (with IB Money) to retake the north for example.

Then if stannis reaches winterfell after having defeated the freys the boltons are toasted. with enemies outside and inside they don t have any chance.

If rickon is indeed found I am more curious about what will happen next. Rickon is 5 years old, he can t be lord/king when the north is being attacked by the others and becomes and enemy of the IT... So after defeated the boltons will some lord like manderley try to marry rickon to a relative and be in charge until rickon is old enough? What will people do about robb's will? I think I would like that rickon is dead and he is livng inside shaggydog. It would simplify things...

And I hope we will finally have howland reed appear. I think it is time.

 

I was interested until I read this bit. 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I was interested until I read this bit. 

Wether it were nicho's ships or not, the fact that there were 3 ships similar to nicho's ships in white harbor opens the possibility that nicho might have gone there.

 

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2 hours ago, divica said:

But he has to know that they won t fight together against stannis. So stannis will have much more soldiers than them. In addition, if the freys are defeated and stannis reaches winterfell the boltons are doomed. So don t you think that he sending these 3 bad elements to scheme something to unite the north with him?

He doesn't know. Wyman never sent hostages, but he also knows that he cannot win without the Manderly swords, and as long as he has the Freys, he can keep Manderly under control. Battles are ugly and confusing. It is called the "fog or war."   Allies are hard to discern from enemies. I figure Ramsey's plan is to send the Manderly forces in first to bloody Stannis and then mop up what is left. The Key will be Stannis communicating with Wyman's troops, which they very well may do. The Freys are universally reviled in the north, so unless Ramsey is totally victorious, the Frey Troops are doomed  This still leaves all of the Loyal dreadfort men behind the provisioned and fortified walls of Winterfell. No matter what happens, Roose is in the best position. 

2 hours ago, divica said:

So you think she would join the northern conspiracy?

The only thing I know for sure is that she does not want the north to be ruled by House bolton and bristles at the notion of Southron interference. Roose is at least someone who can be dealt with. "A quiet rule, a peaceful people" is his motto. Ramsey on the other hand is Joffrey2 and she knows the north will suffer when he rules. Aside from the Karstarks, most northern houses are allied with Roose because they have no means to defend themselves from the crown with most of their fighting men dead. The Wiki has the quote of her talking down to Aenys Frey when his men start dying:

Barbrey: Lord Wyman is not the only one who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf.
Roger: House Ryswell too.
Barbrey: Even Dustins out of Barrowton. The north remembers, Frey
2 hours ago, divica said:

Does he really want to unite with stannis? Do you think wyman or any other northern lord wants to fight the 7 kingdoms to put stannis in the IT? Specially taking into account it is winter and the north has to take care of itself? And what will the northern lords do when they learn about robb's will? would they continue to support stannis?

  He is willing to unite with Stannis as long as his hand can get the last surviving true blooded Stark back to Winterfell. Then, as a northerner and an ally of Stannis, he is set to be Rickon's regent until he comes of age and then marrying his family into house Stark meaning his grandchild will be heir to winterfell securing the Manderlys as the most powerful house in the north for some time.  Robb's will was written with the understanding that all of his siblings are dead or prisoners, so Jon was it. 

2 hours ago, divica said:

Just because wyman said so doesn t mean he plans to do so. With rickon and all the northern houses (except the boltons) supporting him he doesn t need stannis. I would even say that a Southern king with fanatics that want to burn the weirwoods and the unbelievers is a very unwanted person...

He needs Stannis because the north is weak after the war and the red wedding. He can ally with Stannis on good terms and be the regent of Winterfell, or he can ditch Stannis and get conquered from the south or stay under Bolton rule. Those are his options as he sees it.
Why would Wyman violate an execution order from Cersei, then make an extremely secret deal with Stannis' hand to bring back the Heir to Winterfell and the Kingdom of the north from the wilds of Skagos in exchange for an support and then do everything he did at winterfell if he did plan on going through with all of it? The last part is the kicker. I do not think Wyman would tolerate anything like that, and Stannis is very practical. My guess is that he will follow Lord Commander Snow's policy of letting the wildlings keep their own gods 

5 hours ago, divica said:

yay we will see howland! But don t you think that robb's will will interfere with wyman's plans? Or even divide the north if rickon is found? There are a lot of pros and cons for supporting either rickon or jon and it is likely that manderley would want to marry rickon to one of his grandaughters and be the warden of the north until rickon grows while howland and robb's more loyal men would want to put jon in charge of the north (and riverlands)...

Robb's will is predicated on Rickon, Bran and Arya being dead and Sansa a prisoner. If Rickon makes it back, Jon would be the heir until he had a child. Rickon is the last male stark alive for most of the north. Jon as a bastard puts him below Rickon, even with the will.  At this point, the north needs the blood of Winterfell to rule them again.  

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33 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

He doesn't know. Wyman never sent hostages, but he also knows that he cannot win without the Manderly swords, and as long as he has the Freys, he can keep Manderly under control. Battles are ugly and confusing. It is called the "fog or war."   Allies are hard to discern from enemies. I figure Ramsey's plan is to send the Manderly forces in first to bloody Stannis and then mop up what is left. The Key will be Stannis communicating with Wyman's troops, which they very well may do. The Freys are universally reviled in the north, so unless Ramsey is totally victorious, the Frey Troops are doomed  This still leaves all of the Loyal dreadfort men behind the provisioned and fortified walls of Winterfell. No matter what happens, Roose is in the best position. 

The only thing I know for sure is that she does not want the north to be ruled by House bolton and bristles at the notion of Southron interference. Roose is at least someone who can be dealt with. "A quiet rule, a peaceful people" is his motto. Ramsey on the other hand is Joffrey2 and she knows the north will suffer when he rules. Aside from the Karstarks, most northern houses are allied with Roose because they have no means to defend themselves from the crown with most of their fighting men dead. The Wiki has the quote of her talking down to Aenys Frey when his men start dying:

Barbrey: Lord Wyman is not the only one who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf.
Roger: House Ryswell too.
Barbrey: Even Dustins out of Barrowton. The north remembers, Frey

  He is willing to unite with Stannis as long as his hand can get the last surviving true blooded Stark back to Winterfell. Then, as a northerner and an ally of Stannis, he is set to be Rickon's regent until he comes of age and then marrying his family into house Stark meaning his grandchild will be heir to winterfell securing the Manderlys as the most powerful house in the north for some time.  Robb's will was written with the understanding that all of his siblings are dead or prisoners, so Jon was it. 

He needs Stannis because the north is weak after the war and the red wedding. He can ally with Stannis on good terms and be the regent of Winterfell, or he can ditch Stannis and get conquered from the south or stay under Bolton rule. Those are his options as he sees it.
Why would Wyman violate an execution order from Cersei, then make an extremely secret deal with Stannis' hand to bring back the Heir to Winterfell and the Kingdom of the north from the wilds of Skagos in exchange for an support and then do everything he did at winterfell if he did plan on going through with all of it? The last part is the kicker. I do not think Wyman would tolerate anything like that, and Stannis is very practical. My guess is that he will follow Lord Commander Snow's policy of letting the wildlings keep their own gods 

Robb's will is predicated on Rickon, Bran and Arya being dead and Sansa a prisoner. If Rickon makes it back, Jon would be the heir until he had a child. Rickon is the last male stark alive for most of the north. Jon as a bastard puts him below Rickon, even with the will.  At this point, the north needs the blood of Winterfell to rule them again.  

I think you are forgetting that right now stannis has less than 1500 soldiers and no foothold in the south. From manderley's pov stannis is kind of powerless and in the future might want to fight to get the IT which isn t in the interest of the north. So there isn t really any gain in joining with stannis..

To me it sounds like he is using davos as free manual labor to get rickon from a very dangerous place and then decide if he really wants to join stannis or not. And I think it will depend on how stannis fanatics behave and what stannis wants from the northmen... However if he expects the northmen to make the sacrífices his kingsmen and queensmen did he will be disapointed.

And you have a very serious misconception. Robb's will recognizes jon as a stark instead of a bastard. As long as this is true, as robb's oldest living brother he probably has the best claim. We aren t talking about inheriting something from ned! And recognizing a bastard can t depend on if his brothers are alive or not.

So can you imagine wyman making this whole plan to be in charge of the north and sudenly howland arrives with a will that recognizes jon as a stark? things might get really messy!

ps And rickon is probably the worst option possible because any of his missing siblings would have a better claim than him. Can you imagine how many wars there might be if his siblings ever return north?

Edited by divica

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