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divica

So, what is going on in the north

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Well a lot of the North's questions are wrapped up in if the Pink Letter is authentic. Personally I think it was sent to push Jon's buttons and get him and the Night's Watch involved, as Ramsay seems unlikely to be privy to every detail in it. It would be someone with personal knowledge of Jon or the North, and privy to what's going on inside Winterfell given the details the letter contains. But this isn't a thread to discuss that.

As things stand, Roose is in a decent position. He's send his problems(Freys and Manderlys) out to deal with his other problem, Stannis. Nearly all possible outcomes benefit Roose. Even if Stannis wins, he can still remain holed up in Winterfell and wait for Stannis to starve. Ramsay would be a wildcard as he seems more inclined to do things than think them out however. Odd that most of the direct threats to Roose are within his own walls than outside them.

Stannis is in a bad position, though has also been handed an opportunity to destroy some of the Bolton forces piecemeal. If his force is strong enough to pull this off, it might even the odds in the coming campaign. A lot really depends on what Manderly does.

Manderly said he'd join Stannis if Davos gets back Rickon. If you can't trust the word of a man who butchers people, cooks them up and cheerfully serves their remains to guests unknowingly while chowing down himself, who can you trust? Yeah, Manderly has demonstrated he'll lie and deceive and do heinous things in the process of securing his family and getting his personal revenge. I don't think Davos and Stannis are exceptions to that. If he was serious about joining Stannis, now would be the time to do it, but I doubt he will. If the Great Northern Conspiracy is a thing, he's neck deep in it. He's playing Stannis and the Boltons against one another and positioning himself to reap the benefits and coming out ahead no matter who wins or survives.

Lady Dustin is a hard one to figure out. She seems to have something against everyone and is certainly very embittered. She'd be better off staying as non involved as possible, paying only minimal homage to the Boltons like she did the Starks, but is going out of her way to remain close to the Boltons. Why do that if not to be close and put a knife in his back?

The Ironborn seem to be a nonfactor at this point. Asha might be able to rally the few that remain in the North to Stannis in exchange for going against Euron. That seems to be the only factor they might play.

As for Reed? Sometimes I think he's just a red herring dangled out in front of the readers to to divert them away from the possibilities and obscure things.

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On 10/01/2018 at 8:53 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots?

I can see that going either way. 

It makes perfect sense for them to want Jon dead, as with Stannis gone he's the last figurehead for their enemies to rally behind, and in earlier chapters Theon overhears soldiers talking about how Jon and Stannis have allied, so he'd be a known enemy as far as they're concerned. And having Ramsay write the letter partly removes Roose from responsibility, which is typical of him. 

On the other hand, Roose repeatedly provokes Ramsay to his face thinking that he has utter control over him, and I'd be surprised if Ramsay never snapped. Plus, in ADWD Theon sees them arguing with each other and the Frey wife looking afraid, so that relationship may already be nearing its tipping point. I can imagine Roose laying the blame on Ramsay for the escape of Theon and Jeyne, and saying something cutting enough to make Ramsay kill him (or start planning it).

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Well, The Boltons could be on the edge of a crushing defeat or a massive victory. I am curious of the timeline in which Davos is on compared to what is going on at the very last moment regarding the theon bonus chapter.  I have always thought that Davos secured Rickon and his headed up to winterfell from the South, with Glover and a host that may comprise some of the Skagosi. Roose dies off page but is in a possible Ramsay POV. However, this is futile. I think GRRM will possibly never finish this series as he has too many other things going now and he is not a high energy guy as it is.

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7 hours ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Well, The Boltons could be on the edge of a crushing defeat or a massive victory. I am curious of the timeline in which Davos is on compared to what is going on at the very last moment regarding the theon bonus chapter.  I have always thought that Davos secured Rickon and his headed up to winterfell from the South, with Glover and a host that may comprise some of the Skagosi. Roose dies off page but is in a possible Ramsay POV. However, this is futile. I think GRRM will possibly never finish this series as he has too many other things going now and he is not a high energy guy as it is.

If I open The Winds of Winter and realize I am reading a prologue from Ramsay's point of view, I might squeal out loud just a bit. 

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On ‎28‎/‎01‎/‎2018 at 10:38 PM, Lord Lannister said:

Well a lot of the North's questions are wrapped up in if the Pink Letter is authentic. Personally I think it was sent to push Jon's buttons and get him and the Night's Watch involved, as Ramsay seems unlikely to be privy to every detail in it. It would be someone with personal knowledge of Jon or the North, and privy to what's going on inside Winterfell given the details the letter contains. But this isn't a thread to discuss that.

Actually what you are saying is probably impossible.

If you check your timeline when mance left CB he thought that the weeper was nearby, jon hadn t comunicated with tormund and there were very few people in CB. Since then the only comunication between the Wall and the north is from tycho who also doesn t know about tormund.

So either mel has overcame what is blocking her vision, or she can comunicate with mance or some NW brother is sending information to the Boltons and we don t know it or nobody know what is going on the Wall.

On the whole th PL seems to be a genious way to gain some hostages and make jon's brothers betray him. Don t forget that the watch is full of cowards and criminals that would rather obey the boltons than face certain death. Jon reading that letter to the NW is like someone telling a sellsword to go fight and die for free. 

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As things stand, Roose is in a decent position. He's send his problems(Freys and Manderlys) out to deal with his other problem, Stannis. Nearly all possible outcomes benefit Roose. Even if Stannis wins, he can still remain holed up in Winterfell and wait for Stannis to starve. Ramsay would be a wildcard as he seems more inclined to do things than think them out however. Odd that most of the direct threats to Roose are within his own walls than outside them.

Stannis is in a bad position, though has also been handed an opportunity to destroy some of the Bolton forces piecemeal. If his force is strong enough to pull this off, it might even the odds in the coming campaign. A lot really depends on what Manderly does.

The freys were also his best supporters. Roose knows he is sorrunded by people that hate him and that all together they have nearly as many men as him. And if stannis wins the fight then roose is doomed. How would he be able to stop the enemies within and outside at the same time? Besides, it shows some weakness he can t have right now...

On the other hand stannis might be equally damned. Now that fArya has escaped why would the clanmen want to die starving outsider of winterfell instead of in their homes? Stannis has given them a awful war that so far is very poor in glory and food. Then no northern liked the burnings or the red god. Then there is the NGC that might not be on stannis side. Then there is the food problem. 

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Manderly said he'd join Stannis if Davos gets back Rickon. If you can't trust the word of a man who butchers people, cooks them up and cheerfully serves their remains to guests unknowingly while chowing down himself, who can you trust? Yeah, Manderly has demonstrated he'll lie and deceive and do heinous things in the process of securing his family and getting his personal revenge. I don't think Davos and Stannis are exceptions to that. If he was serious about joining Stannis, now would be the time to do it, but I doubt he will. If the Great Northern Conspiracy is a thing, he's neck deep in it. He's playing Stannis and the Boltons against one another and positioning himself to reap the benefits and coming out ahead no matter who wins or survives.

I could totally see wyman lieing to davos to get free manual labor. The great question is if there is one unified northern conspiracy or if there are several conspiracies... And the best thing wyman could do for stannis is give him tons of food that stannis would probably conquer winterfell. However, do you think he will do it when winter has just arrived? And wyman joining stannis would only end his little food even faster!

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The Ironborn seem to be a nonfactor at this point. Asha might be able to rally the few that remain in the North to Stannis in exchange for going against Euron. That seems to be the only factor they might play.

As for Reed? Sometimes I think he's just a red herring dangled out in front of the readers to to divert them away from the possibilities and obscure things.

There are IB in the north that we know very little about...

And howland has to appear next book. He has to join the northen lords for whatever is going to happen in the north

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15 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If I open The Winds of Winter and realize I am reading a prologue from Ramsay's point of view, I might squeal out loud just a bit. 

GRRM confirmed that Jeyne Westerling/Stark is in the prologue (he did NOT specify whether or not she is the POV so she isn't sentenced to death yet. Personally I don't think George spared her from the Red Wedding to just die as soon as she leaves Riverrun but that's just me) so you don't have to worry about Ramsay being in the prologue since he is nowhere near Jeyne Westerling.

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13 hours ago, divica said:

On the other hand stannis might be equally damned. Now that fArya has escaped why would the clanmen want to die starving outsider of winterfell instead of in their homes?

These clansmen jobs are only half done because fArya isn't safe So long as her captors live and occupy her home. If they want to truly liberate fArya, they must kill her husband.

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1 hour ago, Buddhakin said:

GRRM confirmed that Jeyne Westerling/Stark is in the prologue (he did NOT specify whether or not she is the POV so she isn't sentenced to death yet. Personally I don't think George spared her from the Red Wedding to just die as soon as she leaves Riverrun but that's just me) so you don't have to worry about Ramsay being in the prologue since he is nowhere near Jeyne Westerling.

I know. Still a Ramsay POV prologue would be [email protected]$!#/& awesome!

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On 2/1/2018 at 9:05 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I know. Still a Ramsay POV prologue would be [email protected]$!#/& awesome!

I bet his POV would be as bat shit crazy as Cersei's POV chapters. I would definitely enjoy reading one.

Edited by Buddhakin

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