Did Littlefinger influece Joffrey in executing Ned?

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

I've been re-reading the books for the tenth time and I just finished A Game of Thrones. I started to ponder about many things that happened in the first book, also, when I started my re-read of A Clash of Kings, something caught my attention when I read the first Arya's chapter.

Yoren tells Arya, after beating her in punishment becuase she hurt Hot Pie, Yoren told her some mysterious man approached him in King's Landing, bringing Gendry with him, if I am not mistaken he also gave Yoren a purse of coins. It is pretty clear that man is Varys. He also asked Yoren to wait in the city, even though he is ready to go. The man told him Eddard Stark is going to be exiled to the Wall and so he is going to join the group and go north. Yoren was indeed waiting and he said something went queer. As we know, Joffrey had Ned executed for treason.

Now, we know that Cersei told Joffrey to spare Ned and send him to the Night's Watch, Varys also suggested that and we know that Cersei still had a certain influence over Joffrey at the time, he still followed her steps. So why did Joffrey change his mind? Yes, I know he is a cruel person, but he was still obedient to his mother, like I mentioned and he had agreed to let Ned take the black.

I think Littlefinger talked to Joffrey at some point, during Ned's capitivity, probably met him alone, as Cersei and Varys would not allowed him to change the king's mind. War was something Littlefinger needed, the chaos it would bring, it would be bad for both sides, Lannisters and Starks.

Plus, we have the dagger story. The Valyrian Steel dagger the catspaw used when trying to kill Bran. We know Littlefinger lied to Ned and Cat about it, framing Tyrion as the owner of the dagger. But what if the truth came out? what if Ned escaped on his way to the wall? What if Tyrion survived the Eyrie and the High Road? Tyrion would confront Littlefinger and the Starks would find out sooner or later that Littlefinger lied about it. What would happen to Littlefinger? He would probably end up in a black cell and executed. He needed Ned to go and Tyrion as well, if both died, he would be safe again, only Catelyn would remain and she would never find out the truth of the story. If Ned survived and learned the truth, he would be in trouble, especially if Ned escaped on the way to the Wall. If he escaped, he would raise his banners in rebellion, House Tully and their banners would also join and things would go bad for him, because with Tyrion alive and angry, once the truth about the dagger was spread, Littlefinger would be the one losing.

No wonder Littlefinger tried to have Tyrion killed as well, as I believe he was the one asking Ser Mandon Moore to kill Tyrion during the Battle of the Blackwater. Ser Mandon is from the Vale and what if Littlefinger got him appointed to the Kingsguard, to be his creature, I mean.

I can see Littlefinger talking to Joffrey, telling him the risk of having Ned, a traitor, wandering north, what if he escaped? It would be dangerous, it was risky. Joffrey would probably tell him he promised Sansa to be merciful to her father if he admitted his treason. Littlefinger would then suggest beheading was a clean death, that would be mercy, more than a traitor deserves. Joffrey is a psychopath, he would love that suggestion, he already hated the Starks, he hated them even more after having his legitimacy challenged by Lord Stark.

[Pride of Driftmark]

8 minutes ago, Shadow of Asshai said:

I've been re-reading the books for the tenth time and I just finished A Game of Thrones. I started to ponder about many things that happened in the first book, also, when I started my re-read of A Clash of Kings, something caught my attention when I read the first Arya's chapter.

Yoren tells Arya, after beating her in punishment becuase she hurt Hot Pie, Yoren told her some mysterious man approached him in King's Landing, bringing Gendry with him, if I am not mistaken he also gave Yoren a purse of coins. It is pretty clear that man is Varys. He also asked Yoren to wait in the city, even though he is ready to go. The man told him Eddard Stark is going to be exiled to the Wall and so he is going to join the group and go north. Yoren was indeed waiting and he said something went queer. As we know, Joffrey had Ned executed for treason.

Now, we know that Cersei told Joffrey to spare Ned and send him to the Night's Watch, Varys also suggested that and we know that Cersei still had a certain influence over Joffrey at the time, he still followed her steps. So why did Joffrey change his mind? Yes, I know he is a cruel person, but he was still obedient to his mother, like I mentioned and he had agreed to let Ned take the black.

I think Littlefinger talked to Joffrey at some point, during Ned's capitivity, probably met him alone, as Cersei and Varys would not allowed him to change the king's mind. War was something Littlefinger needed, the chaos it would bring, it would be bad for both sides, Lannisters and Starks.

Plus, we have the dagger story. The Valyrian Steel dagger the catspaw used when trying to kill Bran. We know Littlefinger lied to Ned and Cat about it, framing Tyrion as the owner of the dagger. But what if the truth came out? what if Ned escaped on his way to the wall? What if Tyrion survived the Eyrie and the High Road? Tyrion would confront Littlefinger and the Starks would find out sooner or later that Littlefinger lied about it. What would happen to Littlefinger? He would probably end up in a black cell and executed. He needed Ned to go and Tyrion as well, if both died, he would be safe again, only Catelyn would remain and she would never find out the truth of the story. If Ned survived and learned the truth, he would be in trouble, especially if Ned escaped on the way to the Wall. If he escaped, he would raise his banners in rebellion, House Tully and their banners would also join and things would go bad for him, because with Tyrion alive and angry, once the truth about the dagger was spread, Littlefinger would be the one losing.

No wonder Littlefinger tried to have Tyrion killed as well, as I believe he was the one asking Ser Mandon Moore to kill Tyrion during the Battle of the Blackwater. Ser Mandon is from the Vale and what if Littlefinger got him appointed to the Kingsguard, to be his creature, I mean.

I can see Littlefinger talking to Joffrey, telling him the risk of having Ned, a traitor, wandering north, what if he escaped? It would be dangerous, it was risky. Joffrey would probably tell him he promised Sansa to be merciful to her father if he admitted his treason. Littlefinger would then suggest beheading was a clean death, that would be mercy, more than a traitor deserves. Joffrey is a psychopath, he would love that suggestion, he already hated the Starks, he hated them even more after having his legitimacy challenged by Lord Stark.

Tenth Time? Color me impressed. This is very, very likely, and I like the idea. GRRM once enigmatically admitted to Petyr's "hidden influence over Joff". However, to comment on something else, I am really intrigued by Varys' smuggling of Gendry. It is really strange that Varys dotes on Robert's bastards, seemingly without the King's Knowledge (with the exception of Edric Storm's gifts). 

Other than that, I like the idea that Petyr influenced Joff. The only thing that gives me pause is that it hasn't been revealed yet. In the grand scheme of the story, it seems like a relatively minor plot point. 

[Angel Eyes]

I know that Littlefinger would he say he didn't.

 

[Lady Dacey]

It makes sense. I think it may have been proposed before, even. When Arya is watching her father confess she notices Littlefinger on the pulpit - a man with a pointy beard an de a silvery cape that had once dueled for her mother. Then we get this:

Quote

A thousand voices were screaming, but Arya never heard them. Prince Joffrey … no, King Joffrey … stepped out from behind the shields of his Kingsguard. "My mother bids me let Lord Eddard take the black, and Lady Sansa has begged mercy for her father." He looked straight at Sansa then, and smiled, and for a moment Arya thought that the gods had heard her prayer, until Joffrey turned back to the crowd and said, "But they have the soft hearts of women. So longas I am your king, treason shall never gounpunished. Ser Ilyn, bring me hishead!" 

The crowd roared, and Arya felt the statue of Baelor rock as they surged against it. The High Septon clutched at the king's cape, and Varys came rushing over waving his arms, and even the queen was saying something to him, but Joffrey shook his head. Lords and knights moved aside as he stepped through, tall and fleshless, a skeleton in iron mail, the King's Justice. Dimly, as if from far off, Arya heard her sister scream. Sansa had fallen to her knees, sobbing hysterically. Ser Ilyn Payne climbed the steps of the pulpit.

So we see that the High Septon, Varys and the queen were distraught with Joffrey's choice. Sansa was hiding her face. Littlefinger's reaction doesn't register with Arya, which we could take to mean he didn't look surprised. And also:

Quote

High atop the pulpit, Ser Ilyn Paynegestured and the knight in black-and-gold gave a command. The gold cloaks flung Lord Eddard to the marble, with his head and chest out over the edge.

The knight in black and gold is Janos Slynt, who we know is LF's creature, and there he is helping behead the Ned. 

I don't know if we ever are going to get confirmation though, it might remain speculation for ever... I mean we see FL through Sansa's POV and he's never going to admit having part in her fathers murder. He's not likely to tell Cersei either. How else could we learn 'the truth'?

[Lucius Lovejoy]

39 minutes ago, Pride of Driftmark said:

Other than that, I like the idea that Petyr influenced Joff. The only thing that gives me pause is that it hasn't been revealed yet. In the grand scheme of the story, it seems like a relatively minor plot point. 

I am just finished AGOT and am halfway through ACOK but it is only my second time reading them - I am much impressed with you, @Shadow of Asshai.  I enjoyed your theory and find it possible, though @Pride of Driftmark stole the words out of my mouth - at this point it doesn't particularly matter.  I believe Littlefinger only wanted personal advancement and hoped to achieve this with Eddard as the Lord Protector - when Ned wanted to sit Stannis on the throne he had to devise other plans in assisting the Lannisters, but likely didn't intend to have Ned killed.  Then again, who knows what his end game really is.

[Lord Lannister]

Well if not Littlefinger, I'm sure it was Bloodraven.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

That's what I've always thought. Littlefinger is really the only one who fits all of the necessary criteria: motive, opportunity (off-page, but still), it makes complete sense.

[Light a wight tonight]

The theory of LF being behind Ned's execution has been around for a while. It does make a good bit of sense on more than one level. If he needs Joff on the throne he has to get rid of Ned, and he resents Ned being married to his boyhood crush (and remember, he was from a relatively humble House and developed a hatred of the upper nobility). Plus the business of the dagger.

Tyrion is a different story. The Imp is one of the few characters who can match wits with LF, and as Master of Coin has been studying the Kingdom's books. Given time he could gather enough proof of embezzlement or whatever hanky-panky has been going on and that would be the end for Lord Petyr.

[Dorian Martell's son]

6 hours ago, Shadow of Asshai said:

Snip

While unprovable (without a confession,) I like this one a lot. I would add that LF was also instrumental in the killing of Joffrey. 

[Lollygag]

Expanding on the idea that LF had influence over Joff, I’ve long suspected that it was LF’s idea to have Joff use the KG to beat Sansa. She dreams of knights and songs, so it benefits LF greatly in a sexual grooming way to literally beat this idea out of her. Joff couldn’t possibly come up with how powerful a torture it would be to have the girl who loved songs and chivalry be beaten on command of her perfect prince by the KG who were the greatest and noblest of knights. Then LF swoops in and saves her, and she’s more willing to overlook his low birth.

The passage below from Cersei says that marriage to Sansa was very much on LF’s mind when he would have been planning what to do here but Cersei rejected the idea. Proximity is important in the series. Note how Cersei swings right from discussing LF, that war would result from Ned's execution, to Joff’s going off-script in a 1-2-3 sequence.

 

AGOT Sansa III (discussing Ned’s choice to send Beric in his place instead of Loras who volunteered)

Lord Baelish stroked his little pointed beard and said, "Nothing? Tell me, child, why would you have sent Ser Loras?"

Sansa had no choice but to explain about heroes and monsters. The king's councillor smiled. "Well, those are not the reasons I'd have given, but …" He had touched her cheek, his thumb lightly tracing the line of a cheekbone. "Life is not a song, sweetling. You may learn that one day to your sorrow."

ADWD Cersei II

It came to her suddenly that she had stood in this very spot before, on the day Lord Eddard Stark had lost his head. That was not supposed to happen. Joff was supposed to spare his life and send him to the Wall. Stark's eldest son would have followed him as Lord of Winterfell, but Sansa would have stayed at court, a hostage. Varys and Littlefinger had worked out the terms, and Ned Stark had swallowed his precious honor and confessed his treason to save his daughter's empty little head. I would have made Sansa a good marriage. A Lannister marriage. Not Joff, of course, but Lancel might have suited, or one of his younger brothers. Petyr Baelish had offered to wed the girl himself, she recalled, but of course that was impossible; he was much too lowborn. If Joff had only done as he was told, Winterfell would never have gone to war, and Father would have dealt with Robert's brothers.

Instead Joff had commanded that Stark's head be struck off, and Lord Slynt and Ser Ilyn Payne had hastened to obey. It was just there, the queen recalled, gazing at the spot. Janos Slynt had lifted Ned Stark's head by the hair as his life's blood flowed down the steps, and after that there was no turning back.

 

 

 

[Ygrain]

The theory has been around for some time indeed, but just recently, @Widow's Watch made a couple of excellent observations - as the OP correctly points out, LF doesn't react to Joff's unexpected decision in any way, but he is also referred to as "the man who duelled for her mother" by Arya, which is rather peculiar in this context. Furthermore, Ned's doublet has inverted colours as if he were a bastard, which is such a clever, vicious streak inconsistent with the character of Joffrey and Cersei, who are rather blunt and straightforward in their malice. IMHO, this only confirms that LF is indeed set up as the one who arranged Ned's execution. Combined with the way he whispers in Joff's ear about why he should want "ugly dwarfs" at his wedding, we know that he is indeed able to sway Joff.

As for LF's "hidden influence": while his powers of suggestion would certainly fit the description, I wandered into the crackpot territory the other day and suggested that LF "stole" Tyrion's idea about arranging Joff's sexual initiation.

Spoiler

The show does have LF provide Joff with "entertainment", though it didn't quite go the way Tyrion had in mind.

 

[Kandrax]

9 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

The theory has been around for some time indeed, but just recently, @Widow's Watch made a couple of excellent observations - as the OP correctly points out, LF doesn't react to Joff's unexpected decision in any way, but he is also referred to as "the man who duelled for her mother" by Arya, which is rather peculiar in this context. Furthermore, Ned's doublet has inverted colours as if he were a bastard, which is such a clever, vicious streak inconsistent with the character of Joffrey and Cersei, who are rather blunt and straightforward in their malice. IMHO, this only confirms that LF is indeed set up as the one who arranged Ned's execution. Combined with the way he whispers in Joff's ear about why he should want "ugly dwarfs" at his wedding, we know that he is indeed able to sway Joff.

As for LF's "hidden influence": while his powers of suggestion would certainly fit the description, I wandered into the crackpot territory the other day and suggested that LF "stole" Tyrion's idea about arranging Joff's sexual initiation.

  Reveal hidden contents

The show does have LF provide Joff with "entertainment", though it didn't quite go the way Tyrion had in mind.

 

Is it neccesary to put spoilers about show exclusive characters?

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Kandrax said:

Is it neccesary to put spoilers about show exclusive characters?

This is a book forum, so technically yes, I guess.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

13 hours ago, Shadow of Asshai said:

wonder Littlefinger tried to have Tyrion killed as well, as I believe he was the one asking Ser Mandon Moore to kill Tyrion during the Battle of the Blackwater. Ser Mandon is from the Vale and what if Littlefinger got him appointed to the Kingsguard, to be his creature, I mean

This makes sense

[Livesundersink]

It also meant that Robb would never put away his sword and go back to Winterfell. In the aftermath of the Red Wedding, Littlefinger is made Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, so we see that he has profited greatly from the chaos that ensued after Ned's execution.

Spoiler

There is a scene in the show where discusses the great houses and how he's not going to fight them, he's going to fuck them

Check this video out for more information

 

 

[Pride of Driftmark]

13 hours ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

I am just finished AGOT and am halfway through ACOK but it is only my second time reading them - I am much impressed with you, @Shadow of Asshai.  I enjoyed your theory and find it possible, though @Pride of Driftmark stole the words out of my mouth - at this point it doesn't particularly matter.  I believe Littlefinger only wanted personal advancement and hoped to achieve this with Eddard as the Lord Protector - when Ned wanted to sit Stannis on the throne he had to devise other plans in assisting the Lannisters, but likely didn't intend to have Ned killed.  Then again, who knows what his end game really is.

Thanks @Lucius Lovejoy but I've just thought of another possibility. Littlefinger's culpability in Ned's death could convince Sansa to abandon/betray Petyr, considering she currently believes that she owes everything to him. 

[The Commentator]

1 hour ago, Pride of Driftmark said:

Thanks @Lucius Lovejoy but I've just thought of another possibility. Littlefinger's culpability in Ned's death could convince Sansa to abandon/betray Petyr, considering she currently believes that she owes everything to him. 

Sansa threw in with Littlefinger.  He's her meal ticket.  Might be she betrays him or might be she just forgets about the past, starts dreaming of grandeur again and weaves her fantasies, and continues to support Littlefinger.  

[Lucius Lovejoy]

Hey @Pride of Driftmark I considered the possibility of Sansa using LF's betrayal as a reason for abandoning him, but at this point how is she going to find out?  Tyrion wasn't there and doesn't know the details, Cersei she doesn't trust and likely won't meet again, and I can't see her interacting with Varys.  Who else knows the details?  Plus Sansa did a lot of surviving in KL by going along with Joff and Cersei - she could relate if LF says he had to do the same.  I am sort of with @Widowmaker 811 - Sansa is in it with LF until she decides she it is in her best interests to ditch him (which will be a big shift from being used to using).  I don't think it will be out of some righteous vengeance.

[Moiraine Sedai]

I'm not defending Joffrey but killing Ned is appropriate punishment for treason.  Which Ned was guilty of, as far as Joffrey knew.  He had no need to be told by Little finger.  Not saying LF didn't have anything to do with it.  I'm just saying it's an idea that Joffrey could decide on his own.

[Ygrain]

15 minutes ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Hey @Pride of Driftmark I considered the possibility of Sansa using LF's betrayal as a reason for abandoning him, but at this point how is she going to find out?  Tyrion wasn't there and doesn't know the details, Cersei she doesn't trust and likely won't meet again, and I can't see her interacting with Varys.  Who else knows the details?  Plus Sansa did a lot of surviving in KL by going along with Joff and Cersei - she could relate if LF says he had to do the same.  I am sort of with @Widowmaker 811 - Sansa is in it with LF until she decides she it is in her best interests to ditch him (which will be a big shift from being used to using).  I don't think it will be out of some righteous vengeance.

Barristan and Sandor Clegane were there when LF put Ned's dagger against his neck. Jeyne was "trained" in LF's brothel. Tyrion knows that LF lied about the dragonbone dagger. Arya knows from Yoren that Ned was supposed to be pardoned and take the black, and she saw the reactions of the people around Joffrey, which Sansa may have been too distracted to note.

Furthermore, Lysa said before her death that she put "the tears" in Jon's wine and that she framed the Lannisters for that in the letter to Cat, both at LF's behest.

Sansa knows how LF can manipulate people, through his own admission how he convinced Joff to have the jousting dwarfs at the wedding feast, and how he planted the idea of Joff as a monster with the Tyrells. She has a lot of the pieces already, she just doesn't grasp their meaning and how they all fit together. All she needs is an eye opener. Jeyne, Arya, Tyrion and Sandor all represent unresolved issues from her past and each and every one has a piece of damning information, though Sandor's is the biggest dealbreaker.