Stannis army losses and future battles

[Hodor's Aunt]

I guess Manderly hates Stannis just as much as he hates Roose Bolton. The same is more or less true for all northern lords. His endgame should not be to ally with Stannis, but get rid of both and then step in with his own pretender (Rickon). 

So my guess is, that he will watch Stannis and Freys going down - then finish whoever is left and return to winterfell. But instead of entering Winterfell through the main gate (that would mean him to die by the hands of the boltons) sneak in through the crypts. Bran should somehow (Theon?) transfer him the information how. Then he and some other northerners can turn on the boltons.

My guess for story reasons is, that the boltons somehow win (maybe with one Bolton lord dead). But it should weaken their position enough so that the Nightwatch + allies can stand a chance against whatever is left of the bolton host. 

[Corvo the Crow]

After Blackwater, he still had "fifteen hundred swords left on DS, more than half Florents" according to Axell.

Sometimes after that he had "thirteen hundred on DS and three hundred on SE" according to himself.

After they ser out for NW he had "no more than fifteen hundred" according to Davos.

There's also a skeleton garrison left in DS.

After beating Mance He had "more than a thousand" according to Sam.

[Impbread]

On 10/18/2018 at 2:35 AM, Corvo the Crow said:

After Blackwater, he still had "fifteen hundred swords left on DS, more than half Florents" according to Axell.

Sometimes after that he had "thirteen hundred on DS and three hundred on SE" according to himself.

After they ser out for NW he had "no more than fifteen hundred" according to Davos.

There's also a skeleton garrison left in DS.

After beating Mance He had "more than a thousand" according to Sam.

I just hope it is enough to smash the Boltons.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 10/17/2018 at 8:36 AM, Hodor's Aunt said:

I guess Manderly hates Stannis just as much as he hates Roose Bolton. The same is more or less true for all northern lords. His endgame should not be to ally with Stannis, but get rid of both and then step in with his own pretender (Rickon). 

Manderly did send Davos on a hunt to find and bring back Rickon and the direwolf.  Supposedly if Davos succeeds Manderly will throw in with Stannis. BTW, full disclosure I think Manderly sent Davos on a wild goose chase.

A Dance with Dragons - Davos IV      "Roose Bolton has Lord Eddard's daughter. To thwart him White Harbor must have Ned's son … and the direwolf. The wolf will prove the boy is who we say he is, should the Dreadfort attempt to deny him. That is my price, Lord Davos. Smuggle me back my liege lord, and I will take Stannis Baratheon as my king."/

On 10/17/2018 at 8:36 AM, Hodor's Aunt said:

So my guess is, that he will watch Stannis and Freys going down - then finish whoever is left and return to winterfell.

I assume you are suggesting Bolton will receive word that Frey & Manderly men quashed Stannis at the crofter's village? Or are you suggesting Bolton men followed the Frey and Manderly men to the crofter's village?

For me it is an unknown whether Manderly has survived his chin slashing due to the outbreak of infighting in WF.

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I    Ser Hosteen Frey ripped his longsword from its scabbard and leapt toward Wyman Manderly. The Lord of White Harbor tried to jerk away, but the tabletop pinned him to his chair. The blade slashed through three of his four chins in a spray of bright red blood. Lady Walda gave a shriek and clutched at her lord husband's arm. "Stop," Roose Bolton shouted. "Stop this madness."/

On 10/17/2018 at 8:36 AM, Hodor's Aunt said:

But instead of entering Winterfell through the main gate (that would mean him to die by the hands of the boltons) sneak in through the crypts. Bran should somehow (Theon?) transfer him the information how. Then he and some other northerners can turn on the boltons.

This is where you lost me. I can be dense at times. Iffin' ye be talkin' bout Stannis & company using the crypts as a entrance way into WF you may get a bit of feedback and chit chat. I would suggest that posters take a tiny bit of time naming their pronouns -- "he" can be interpreted to mean whomever.

On 10/17/2018 at 8:36 AM, Hodor's Aunt said:

My guess for story reasons is, that the boltons somehow win (maybe with one Bolton lord dead). But it should weaken their position enough so that the Nightwatch + allies can stand a chance against whatever is left of the bolton host. 

The WF, Stannis, northmen battle against Bolton is one of the many situations that I am looking forward to in WoW.

 

Edit: I skipped the opening post with its numbers and moved on to speculative motivations and situations.

[Guest]

On 10/17/2018 at 11:35 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

After Blackwater, he still had "fifteen hundred swords left on DS, more than half Florents" according to Axell.

Sometimes after that he had "thirteen hundred on DS and three hundred on SE" according to himself.

After they ser out for NW he had "no more than fifteen hundred" according to Davos.

There's also a skeleton garrison left in DS.

After beating Mance He had "more than a thousand" according to Sam.

Thanks for that update. 

Do we know how many of those men came over after Renly died?

I ask because I still can't believe a southern commander would lose to a Northerner in Winter in a situation he wouldn't even be in if it wasn't for another Northerner's advice. And especially if a portion of his army is made up of "Knights of Summer" and "bloody southron fools." If Stannis can beat the weather - other southern armies can too. In effect GRRM would take those interesting Russian historical parallels and throw them in the trash if Stannis wins. 

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Thanks for that update. 

Do we know how many of those men came over after Renly died?

I ask because I still can't believe a southern commander would lose to a Northerner in Winter in a situation he wouldn't even be in if it wasn't for another Northerner's advice. And especially if a portion of his army is made up of "Knights of Summer" and "bloody southron fools." If Stannis can beat the weather - other southern armies can too. In effect GRRM would take those interesting Russian historical parallels and throw them in the trash if Stannis wins. 

 

 

 

You can make a guess, we already know Florents make more than half of the "fifteen hundred" and below we see some banners and they include his original supporters Velaryons and Bar Emmons.

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Jon X

More and more men were pouring from the trees, not only knights now but freeriders and mounted bowmen and men-at-arms in jacks and kettle helms, dozens of men, hundreds of men. A blaze of banners flew above them. The wind was whipping them too wildly for Jon to see the sigils, but he glimpsed a seahorse, a field of birds, a ring of flowers. And yellow, so much yellow, yellow banners with a red device, whose arms were those?

 

There was a king in the King's Tower for the first time in living memory, and banners flew from the Lance, Hardin's Tower, the Grey Keep, the Shieldhall, and other buildings that had stood empty and abandoned for long years. "The big one, the gold with the black stag, that's the royal standard of House Baratheon," he told Gilly, who had never seen banners before. "The fox-and-flowers is House Florent. The turtle is Estermont, the swordfish is Bar Emmon, and the crossed trumpets are for Wensington."

 

Also worth mentioning is he had 5000 men which was only growing in strength when he last ravened Jon so %80 of his army is Northerners, perhaps more. Also it's the Freys he'll fight, not Roose. Ramsay and Manderly have far fewer men than both the Freys and Stannis and even combined, Stannis' army outnumbers any force Roose sends; Roose has 6+K men in WF but only sent 300 Manderlys, 2000 Freys and whatever number with Ramsay.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Also worth mentioning is he had 5000 men which was only growing in strength when he last ravened Jon so %80 of his army is Northerners, perhaps more. Also it's the Freys he'll fight, not Roose. Ramsay and Manderly have far fewer men than both the Freys and Stannis and even combined, Stannis' army outnumbers any force Roose sends; Roose has 6+K men in WF but only sent 300 Manderlys, 2000 Freys and whatever number with Ramsay.

I think the larger point for me is that he doesn't know the North. He wouldn't have those Northerners, because he isnt a native and had to be schooled. The weather is also something he underestimates. 

This is why I do believe the pink letter, at least in part. Stannis lives because Ramsay would have bragged about having his head on a spike. But most of his army is routed.

He might win against the Freys, sure. But that's not enough. Jon reading that letter publicly also makes me wonder if Tycho has doubts and revokes the loan. Or, if Melisandre goes off to find Stannis, she convinces him that raising a "dragon" is necessary and more expedient.

[Smoke317]

I think Bran, Theon, Asha, and the island with the weirwood tree will have some role to play in the first(?) battle for winterfell?  I can see a scenario where Bran or Bloodraven convinces Stannis through Theon to take him to the island to be sacrificed to the old gods. Once there, either Ramsey will sneak attack Stannis’ camp and scatter or greatly damage his food stores or something along those lines.  Stannis will have to retreat back to the Wall where he will agree to sacrifice Shereen or will arrive to the aftermath of her sacrifice.  Melisandre will think she revived him but he will tell her he never died.

He will then go to the Nightfort to sulk. There he will be tempted into stabbing himself in the heart with dragonglass to forge lightbringer. But he’ll actually be turning himself into the night king.  My crackpot theory is that Asha or Theon (through Bloodraven or Bran’s influence) will stab Stannis in the heart with a piece of dragonglass in order to escape.  Not knowing that they just created the night king.  Don’t forget Dany had a vision of her facing a blue eyed king who “cast no shadow” at the trident.  I believe Stannis will become the night king.  Either from events on the weirwood island or events at the Night Fort. 

My other crackpot theory is that Euron is raiding Oldtown in the hopes of discovering ways to become The King of the World.  He will learn about a forbidden ritual of stabbing oneself in the heart with dragonglass to become the ultimate king and ruler: The Night King.  He’s a guy who would gladly do the ritual for unlimited power and control over his followers.  Also, imagine how formidable a foe he would be with Valyrian steel armor that couldn’t be penetrated by Valyrian steel swords???  Our hero would have to turn to another legendary sword made out of special material to down the Night King and win the War for the DAWN...  How about a sword named Dawn that was carved from the heart of a dying star to penetrate that armor and bring an end to the Long Night?  Which is exactly what Dawn does anyway...  End the night. Either way, I expect Stannis or Euron to become the Night King.

[Impbread]

On 10/22/2018 at 2:55 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

 

The WF, Stannis, northmen battle against Bolton is one of the many situations that I am looking forward to in WoW.

 

Edit: I skipped the opening post with its numbers and moved on to speculative motivations and situations.

Agreed! The whole Northern plot has me on the edge of my seat. For the last four or five years now HAR!

[BlackLightning]

On 10/31/2018 at 2:03 AM, Smoke317 said:

I think Bran, Theon, Asha, and the island with the weirwood tree will have some role to play in the first(?) battle for winterfell?  I can see a scenario where Bran or Bloodraven convinces Stannis through Theon to take him to the island to be sacrificed to the old gods. Once there, either Ramsey will sneak attack Stannis’ camp and scatter or greatly damage his food stores or something along those lines.  Stannis will have to retreat back to the Wall where he will agree to sacrifice Shereen or will arrive to the aftermath of her sacrifice.  Melisandre will think she revived him but he will tell her he never died.

He will then go to the Nightfort to sulk. There he will be tempted into stabbing himself in the heart with dragonglass to forge lightbringer. But he’ll actually be turning himself into the night king.  My crackpot theory is that Asha or Theon (through Bloodraven or Bran’s influence) will stab Stannis in the heart with a piece of dragonglass in order to escape.  Not knowing that they just created the night king.  Don’t forget Dany had a vision of her facing a blue eyed king who “cast no shadow” at the trident.  I believe Stannis will become the night king.  Either from events on the weirwood island or events at the Night Fort. 

My other crackpot theory is that Euron is raiding Oldtown in the hopes of discovering ways to become The King of the World.  He will learn about a forbidden ritual of stabbing oneself in the heart with dragonglass to become the ultimate king and ruler: The Night King.  He’s a guy who would gladly do the ritual for unlimited power and control over his followers.  Also, imagine how formidable a foe he would be with Valyrian steel armor that couldn’t be penetrated by Valyrian steel swords???  Our hero would have to turn to another legendary sword made out of special material to down the Night King and win the War for the DAWN...  How about a sword named Dawn that was carved from the heart of a dying star to penetrate that armor and bring an end to the Long Night?  Which is exactly what Dawn does anyway...  End the night. Either way, I expect Stannis or Euron to become the Night King.

I've thought the same thing you have. But I think that Stannis will be the next Night King because the Others are not "evil" per say.

I think that Euron will be the evil that the Others are committed to vanquishing by whatever means necessary. Think about it: Euron is -- more than likely -- a skinchanger and a pirate-king with Valyrian steel armor who is looking to actually become a full-fledged sorcerer. Euron might even have a pact with the "drowned god" and the beings that lie beneath the sea...the beings that Patchface is trying to warn everyone about.

[Smoke317]

4 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

I've thought the same thing you have. But I think that Stannis will be the next Night King because the Others are not "evil" per say.

I think that Euron will be the evil that the Others are committed to vanquishing by whatever means necessary. Think about it: Euron is -- more than likely -- a skinchanger and a pirate-king with Valyrian steel armor who is looking to actually become a full-fledged sorcerer. Euron might even have a pact with the "drowned god" and the beings that lie beneath the sea...the beings that Patchface is trying to warn everyone about.

Hmmm. Very interesting. Euron as the ultimate villain would be quite badass. In that scenario, I can definitely see him taking out (f)Aegon.  That would be a sick fight.  

[BlackLightning]

6 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

Hmmm. Very interesting. Euron as the ultimate villain would be quite badass. In that scenario, I can definitely see him taking out (f)Aegon.  That would be a sick fight.  

Well...Euron might not get the chance to really take (f)Aegon out. Especially not if Daenerys gets to him first.

But yeah...Euron being the ultimate villain would be quite badass.

In fact, this is what I believe: when Daenerys returns to Westeros, she's going to be gunning for Euron, the Aegon machine (the puppetmaster being Varys) and the Others.

But she's going to get off track and waste a lot of time dealing with Aegon because Tyrion is going to sabotage Daenerys in favor of what's in his own best interest, because Daenerys underestimated Aegon and because Arianne/Aegon/JonCon -- who are going to be controlling most of the south -- are going to be spoon-fed complete bullsh!t by Varys. Jon or Sansa (whoever Martin decides to send south to treat with the southerners...probably Jon) will help her get back on track by getting her to go north to fight the Others at the Trident.

But instead of really fighting them, Daenerys, Jon and friends realize that the Others are technically not evil and that the real evil is Euron, the drowned god and Patchface's friends under the sea. Only then it's too late because Euron has been quietly increasing his power. No one will be paying attention because, at this point, no one really cares about Balon Greyjoy's children and who Cersei is going to be sleeping with. So, by the time, Jon+Daenerys and co. get rid of the Others, Euron will be a demi-god and -- given the fact that they've spent almost all of their resources fighting Aegon and then the Others -- damn near impossible to beat. Tyrion might try to take a shot at Euron just because he's aligned with Cersei who has Casterly Rock but...even then, Tyrion is not the type to be concerned with anything apolitical.

And that's not even factoring in:

• the fact that Varys always has something up his sleeve
• that Jon Connington is Patient Zero of a greyscale epidemic waiting to happen
• the revelation of Jon Snow's parentage
• Arya's escapades, the Faceless Men and how they will relate to the main plot
• whatever the hell is likely to pop off in Dorne
• the question of whether the Iron Bank, the faith of R'hllor and/or the faith of the Seven will take over the ashes of Westeros 

There's no other way to look at it. Martin repeatedly tells us how his favorite part of the Lord of the Rings books is the "Scouring of the Shire" part when the heroes come back home from the final showdown with the big bad to find that another big bad destroyed everything that they were fighting for.

Euron poses too big of political, moral AND supernatural threat for him not to be the ultimate big bad.

[Ser Dips A lot]

On 2/4/2018 at 2:23 AM, divica said:

So stannis sailed to the Wall with at most 1500 men. 

He fought against a huge army so he had some losses...

We can say that he didn t have losses at deepwood motte...

However during the march stannis losses were huge! So that people have an idea on the 19th day on the vilage the cold count was EIGHTY! 80!!!

And we are garanteed at least more 1 night with similar conditions (the night in theon's TWoW sample chapter)...

In addition stannis started with 800 horses so lets say he had 700 knights?

then when stannis says to justin massey:

Does it mean he has 500 knights? So he lost close to 200 knights? And as common soldiers suffered worse than knights at least 300 or 400 common soldiers?

So a total of 500 or 600 Southern soldiers died since stannis got to the Wall? If we take into account that close to 150 men probably died because of the cold in the last 2 nights isn t it a low number? Anyway, is it safe to assume that stannis has between 900 and 1000 Southern soldiers and lost nearly a third of his army on the march?

If we think that the freys will need more 1 or 2 nights to arrive, even if the weather gets better and the cold count isn t 80 every night it will be pretty high for some nights because the soldiers are already sick... 

So if we include the battle with the freys is it safe to assume that stannis Southern army is broken or he still has enough soldiers?

Then there is the division within his army. If we read the 2 asha chapters together then the northem, queensmen and even kingsmen are nearly starting to fight between themselves. With low food, arya's rescue and stannis personal army diminishing and starting to give more troubles to the northerns than help is it possible that some clansmen/northmen will leave? will theon's fate be important in this friction?

In regards to the battle. I was thinking that after mors umber traps hosteen would need to be mentally dead to attack a position that stannis has been defending for days. Or is it possible that he thinks stannis will be unprepared? 

Is it more likely that after mors stratagems hosteen will be more carefull and try to force stannis to march against him or starve or that hosteen will simply attack?

I think Stannis currently has 4500-5000 fighting men, a combined force of seasoned southron, northern nobles, and northern clansman. I’m pretty sure Roose has an equivalent or similar number consisting of Bolton men, Frey’s, and several northern houses of questionable loyalty. I think Stannis will wipeout the Frey’s in his ice lake death trap and will continue his march on Winterfell. Roose will use the castle to his advantage and let Stannis lay siege, not meeting him in the field. In that situation, the cold and winter attrition would force Stannis to storm the castle with haste, taking severe losses for either a Pyrrhic victory or a finalizing defeat for the One True King. This is where I think Stannis gets the aid he desperately needs; either the Manderly’s, Jon resurrected, perhaps the knights of the Vale, or a combination of these factions join the siege and overwhelm the Bolton’s. Maybe there will just be a defection inside Winterfell and the gates will be opened for Stannis. Either way, Roose Bolton will be burned alive. Stannis lives to fight another day. He is the one true king, by all laws of Westeros.

[Ser Dips A lot]

On 11/4/2018 at 1:35 AM, Jabar of House Titan said:

Well...Euron might not get the chance to really take (f)Aegon out. Especially not if Daenerys gets to him first.

But yeah...Euron being the ultimate villain would be quite badass.

In fact, this is what I believe: when Daenerys returns to Westeros, she's going to be gunning for Euron, the Aegon machine (the puppetmaster being Varys) and the Others.

But she's going to get off track and waste a lot of time dealing with Aegon because Tyrion is going to sabotage Daenerys in favor of what's in his own best interest, because Daenerys underestimated Aegon and because Arianne/Aegon/JonCon -- who are going to be controlling most of the south -- are going to be spoon-fed complete bullsh!t by Varys. Jon or Sansa (whoever Martin decides to send south to treat with the southerners...probably Jon) will help her get back on track by getting her to go north to fight the Others at the Trident.

But instead of really fighting them, Daenerys, Jon and friends realize that the Others are technically not evil and that the real evil is Euron, the drowned god and Patchface's friends under the sea. Only then it's too late because Euron has been quietly increasing his power. No one will be paying attention because, at this point, no one really cares about Balon Greyjoy's children and who Cersei is going to be sleeping with. So, by the time, Jon+Daenerys and co. get rid of the Others, Euron will be a demi-god and -- given the fact that they've spent almost all of their resources fighting Aegon and then the Others -- damn near impossible to beat. Tyrion might try to take a shot at Euron just because he's aligned with Cersei who has Casterly Rock but...even then, Tyrion is not the type to be concerned with anything apolitical.

And that's not even factoring in:

• the fact that Varys always has something up his sleeve
• that Jon Connington is Patient Zero of a greyscale epidemic waiting to happen
• the revelation of Jon Snow's parentage
• Arya's escapades, the Faceless Men and how they will relate to the main plot
• whatever the hell is likely to pop off in Dorne
• the question of whether the Iron Bank, the faith of R'hllor and/or the faith of the Seven will take over the ashes of Westeros 

There's no other way to look at it. Martin repeatedly tells us how his favorite part of the Lord of the Rings books is the "Scouring of the Shire" part when the heroes come back home from the final showdown with the big bad to find that another big bad destroyed everything that they were fighting for.

Euron poses too big of political, moral AND supernatural threat for him not to be the ultimate big bad.

That’s a good share. I like your take on how things in the South are going to shape up and I see a lot of good points, I was struggling to foreshadow how events would transpire with fAegon and Dany but that makes a lot of sense to me. There’s too much material to speculate on honestly but I also see Euron becoming the big bad, last boss to beat in the game. But I wouldn’t say the white walkers aren’t technically evil, I mean they’re reserrecting corpses as zombies and they want to engulf the realm in a lifeless winter wasteland. The night is dark and full of terror and they bring the night. I don’t know who’s going to kill who but I believe the realm will become a post-apocalyptic disease ridden wasteland and R’hllor will take over the ashes. 

[Guest]

I have no doubt Stannis will crush the Freys. If you had asked me directly after reading ADWD, I'd have thought stannis was fucked. He seemed completely lost and doomed without Davos or Mel. Meeting Theon in Winds seems to have reinvigorated him and especially with the Maderly's riding right behind Ser Stupid, he should beat them. As for Ramsey, I don't know.

Winterfell is another story though. It's highly possible there'll be a mutiny against Roose and the Northern Lords will let Stannis in while he rides past Rosse's flayed body. Roose is seriously gonna have to pull something out of his ass to get out of this alive. Maybe the idea of Mance still being alive will turn most Northerners against Stannis more than Roose, but I hope not. There's always the possibility that Roose is some kind of servant to the Night's Queen and whenever stannis arrives at Winterfell, he'll find nothing but old stone undead Stark kings and Wights guarding it. 

I also have a feeling that the Weeper will smash through the Shadow Tower and invade the North. Perhaps Allister Thorne has tipped him off at how poorly manned the NW is and how Stannis has left with most of his strength to campaign towards Winterfell. With Wull lands so poorly guarded, the Weeper could send Reavers into the Bay of Ice to invade the clans lands. They could catch Stannis right in the rear.

I also have a far fetched theory that Mel's sorcery has gone rogue, infected Stannis, and is now spreading through his army. The sorcery keeping her so young has to cause someone else to age rapidly. I have a feeling as soon as an important battle ensues, it will be revealed that Stannis and all his men are weak, feeble old men. This war was already most of the Northmen's final hunt regardless. 

Any combination of these could happen

 

[kissdbyfire]

On 10/9/2018 at 2:34 AM, Amris said:

But if Stannis wins then he stays in the story. And that's a problem since we all suspect Jon needs to take the place of northern leader at some point. Stannis needs to go in order for Jon to get into position. If Stannis manages to take Winterfell and remove the Boltons then what is Jon supposed to do?

Why?