Tyrion Laninster's power plays

[Morgana Lannister]

15 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

A more fair statement might be Tyrion has nothing against young Aegon or young Griffin but if he could make use of the naive kid to harass his sister, he would.  In other words, Tyrion is not going to hold back from getting revenge on his sister even if it meant putting young Griffin in danger.  

I think some of the book readers who also watch the show have allowed themselves to become influenced by the alternative character on the screen.  The "most moral man in the universe" on screen is not the same character that we are discussing here.  That other is fan fiction.  The Tyrion we should be talking about here on the book forum is the one penned by George RR Martin, the genuine article.  The real Tyrion will not hesitate to throw Griff to the lions if it served his own interests.  Tyrion is a grey character.

Griffin showed impatience and lightning quick temper.  I guess Tyrion had his number then and convinced him to make a rash move.  With respects to the Morgana, I don't think Tyrion was testing the kid for rule fitness when he sent him abroad.  Tyrion knew he had his mark when the boy lost his temper over a game of cyvasse.  That is telling because cyvasse represents the bigger game.  

I grant you that yes it is likely that if not his prime motivation, a really strong one is to cause problems for Cersei and he knew that that would mean putting Aegon in danger, but he could win just as he could lose.  In fact if he ended up dying and or defeated by the Lannisters that would not accomplish Tyrion's revenge but rather strengthen Cersei's rule.  For him to manipulate Aegon into this means that he must had though he had a fairly good chance to succeed otherwise it would just simply be counter-productive.  Now whether Tyrion wants for Aegon to ally with Dany or for Dany to win over him I personally think at that stage he is undecided and that is what brings me to the "testing" element.  I could be wrong of course and sometimes a cigar is just a cigar but the reason I like Tyrion so much is not because of the lighter light in which he is presented in the show but because his way of thinking, even in his darkest moments (minus killing Tywin and Shae, which was a crime pasionale and probably one of the few instances in the series when we see him acting without premeditation and without giving things a proper though, which is out of character for him).  He is a manipulator, for sure, not one without compassion and a bit of a soft spot for the underdog, but still a skilled manipulator.  Now, without it he would be unfit for the game and much more like Ned or Rob.  I don't think you have to be evil or totally amoral to play but you cannot be all heart either.  Okay, digressing a bit here but most of our main characters had made decisions, not necessarily without weighing out their options, that can be seen as pretty grey.  Jon is very much like Ned but even so he swapped Gilly's baby knowing that, if Mel & Co thought him Mance's this put him in grave danger.  Yes, this was a very hard choice to make whereas Tyrion is very set on revenge for his own ends, so Tyrion's motivations are less pure but I think he had the time in that boat to ponder about future rulers besides getting at Cersei.  He is too much of a player to be contented with just his own revenge.  I am inclined to believe (although it is hard to substantiate other than with bits and bobs and a lot of speculation) that he has chosen Dany over Aegon but is happy to work with them both if they allied.  Yes, he appeared genuinely surprised when he found out that Aegon had acted on his advice and I have also pointed out to Aegon that he lost the game for leaving the dragon too far behind is counter-advice.  So he gave him a choice in a way, even if he probably waggered that Aegon would not want to wait for the dragon or even willing to share power...

Summarising, although I am not completely in Tyrion's head at the time, Tyrion's reasoning is complex 90% of the time and multi-layered.  Even when he appeared not to give a damn whether he lived or died himself (at Illyrio's say) he absorbed information, appeared to start to figure out other people's moves and motivations etc.  In other words, no matter how low he feels he cannot help himself from, if not totally playing the game, at least figuring it out.  His motivations, IMHO, are only straight forward when he is in love (and very easy to manipulate) or his judgement is so clouded by emotion (positive or negative; and personal) that this overpowers his rationale.  In the boat, he is trying to figure out who Lemore may be, doing detective work in his mind.  He is low, yes, and hard to sympathise much with in ADWD but he is no longer totally blinded by it and he is also looking at the bigger picture in terms of Westeros' rule.   He is not the kind of guy that, say, gets his revenge and retires from politics, so selfishly or not he also wants to know who he should back next, I think...

I also think that George was answering that question from a "theoretical point of view" in that okay, yes he was saying Tyrion, at that particular point in the series, although possibly he has always been like that, is capable of potentially sacrificing someone for his own ends, or whatever he thinks is important, but "sacrificing Aegon to the lions" accomplishes nothing from Tyrion's point of view, unless Aegon manages to, say, kill Cersei first and then loose to whoever remains loyal to her rule after her death, which aren't many.  From a pragmatic point of view, this is not advantageous to Tyrion at all.  Unless, he has made up his mind that he wants to serve Dany and that they need to get rid of Aegon too... which I think it is a bit too early for him to be so, so clear on.  I get the feeling that he is more pro-Dany (or more pro her chances even if we look at Tyrion as a purely self-serving individual) but he doesn't know what could come of an alliance between Dany and Aegon (or even if this is possible) and wants to know more before he puts his own eggs (Tyrion's) in one basket.  To me, this is clever, manipulative and grey, sacrificing someone with no chance is not, no matter what is really Tyrion's moral fibre.  Risking him as a pawn yes, but hey, Aegon cannot get the IT without risking himself anyway.  No one can.  Furthermore, he has a point by doing this in that if Aegon just jumps on the bandwaggon with Danny as consort and let's her do most of the fighting, or being a very clear leader over him, he losses respect with the Westerosi crowd.  This is going to be mainly, I think, a victory by conquest, not exclusively by family name, so no-one can take the throne or much credit in it without risking themselves.

[Tygett Lannister]

On 2/9/2018 at 6:34 PM, Moiraine Sedai said:

It was emotion.  It's kinslaying.  It took down the Lannisters at the expense of damning his soul.  Serving Daenerys may be his road to redemption and his way back to the Light.

Where is the part where he is crucified and than comes from the dead? This is not bible bruf

[Tygett Lannister]

On 2/8/2018 at 11:06 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It was rational. If Tyrion hadn't done it Tywin would've come up to him and simply knocked him out

He could just escape

[John Suburbs]

On ‎2‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 7:57 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yes I'm taking inspiration from this thread:

So how about it people?

My personal favorite is when he's faced with the hill men and manages to talk these blood thirsty savages down without looking the tiniest bit afraid of their sharpened sticks,

I gotta side with the OP on this one. In terms of the sheer accumulation of power, this was his greatest feat. He went from prisoner at the Eyrie facing certain death to castout with one sellsword at his back in hostile territory that an entire company of armed men barely survived coming in, and not only does he survive but walks into his father's camp with a 300-man army consisting of some of the fiercest fighters in the realm -- and all with nothing but his wits. Brilliant.

[Morgana Lannister]

4 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

He could just escape

I'm with you, it was not rational at all and Tyrion is usually very rational, even in his cups, that was "crime pasionale" in the most purest definition.  Not premeditated, he simply felt so betrayed that he lost his mind and wanted to hurt others but then, "these others" had screwed him very well.  Not going into whether they deserve it or not, he lost the plot and let his anger get the better of him which is out of character for him (who usually plans and premeditates).

[Morgana Lannister]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I gotta side with the OP on this one. In terms of the sheer accumulation of power, this was his greatest feat. He went from prisoner at the Eyrie facing certain death to castout with one sellsword at his back in hostile territory that an entire company of armed men barely survived coming in, and not only does he survive but walks into his father's camp with a 300-man army consisting of some of the fiercest fighters in the realm -- and all with nothing but his wits. Brilliant.

Hate him or love him, or both at once, they guy is capable lol

[Aegon1FanBoy]

Nice for me

1/ The trial in the vale the man out played everyone and got the starks's already in a bad position worst i mean imagine if they still had tyrion and then caught jamie my word how different the story would have been

2. How he rooted out Pycelle and played little finger found cersei\s mole and still arranged a political alliance all in one go

3. Getting brown ben to change sides again massive play 

I don't see how him telling Aegon to invade was folly for people it's the best choice they made Mereen is a mess and if they went Dany would not even be there we all saw how it went for Quenten Martell. Now aegon can go make allies and best of all him causing havoc in Westeros not only will bagger cersei, but will make dany hurry to him and westeros even more. 

[LindsayLohan]

I'd add Tyrion's very deliberate consolidation of physical manpower in King's Landing during his time as Hand.

1. He brings his Mountain Clansmen into the capital, around 300 men, loyal to only Tyrion.
2. He removes Janos Slynt as head of the City Watch, as well as Slynt's subordinates.  Tyrion then appoints a new captain, from the Crownlands, who is under Tyrion's command.
3. He has Bronn gathering sellswords.
4. He tricks Cersei into sending away the Lannister household guard in the ploy to free Jaime from Riverrun.

Tywin blatantly ignored Cersei's royal command to bring the Lannister army to defend King's Landing.  Given the events surrounding Robert's death (Ned sending away his own guard, Stannis taking his to Dragonstone, Ned refusing Renly's men, and the role of Goldcloaks in securing the throne for Joffrey), actual physical control of the Red Keep is of huge importance, and only Varys notices Tyrion controlling every non-Kingsguard fighting man in the city.

[Morgana Lannister]

Now, although some of his more premeditated moves may have serve him well, I think there is another element that helps this character.  I know he is far from being everyone's "cup of tea," but the guy has a great deal of charm, especially in the beginning of the series when he is less badly damaged.

Okay, how we won over the Mountain Clans is testimony to that, well that and successfully appealing to their greed or need for proper weapons.

Now, a couple of instances where, I think he acted like he did with nothing to gain for himself, or not something he could not already force by playing his rank card sort of think.

First, with Jon.  He was a bit harsh with his words, repeatedly calling him bastard but then he keeps calling himself dwarf.  He is also harsh in that he teaches Jon that, although Jon is idealistic and means well, the others see him in a different light (too high born) and that he needs to take that into consideration, but he does so whilst also possibly saving his life and I don't think his purpose there could have been anything other than altruistic.  Yes, this is pre trial Tyrion and he goes down hill from there, although I do think both him and Arya are bouncing back, if not completely, in part.

Now, what has he gained from that.  A potential friendship with a very major player?  Could Tyrion have known Jon could be a major player eventually?  At first sight unlikely but maybe he has an instinct for knowing who can be a leader.  Also, not all actions that come to benefit us are deliberate attempts at sweeten up an employer or something, sometimes kindness is rewarded.  I think, on both sides, Jon also warmed to him, they will both be rewarded for it, although hey, no I don't think this series is a "moral tale" that will reward the virtuous and punished the wicked lol (whoever the virtuous and/or wicked may be).

Next, Sansa.  He had no reason to interfere with Joffrey when he had her beaten up in the Throne Room.  He gained nothing from it and risked possible punishment by Joffrey or Cersei although, granted, he was in a much better position given his family ties to do it than anyone else in that room.  Also, when they married, yes the guy was sexually tempted, hey, he is human, and given the description one with a high sex drive, but not only he disobeys his father but he tries to make her life as pleasant as possible.  She tries not to acknowledge this for he is a Lannister after all but it is almost pitiful to see him trying; like when he suggest they take a trip to Casterly Rock.  To her that may have been an insult but to him it was a way to distract her, to please her.  Had she been more skilled, more like she is now, and Margaery was then, say, she could have played him like a fiddle "me thinks".

Now, at present they are worlds apart physically and emotionally. He thinks of her as "false" but also misses her... Also once he gets his brain in gear he will see who move the strings there.  She is already thinking kindly of him (both in ADWD and the sample chapter).  Not saying necessarily this will lead to romance but this patches the road for a political alliance in the pre-final battle or even the reconstruction.

By just being his normal kind and cheerful self, prior his breakdown, he has possibly created a very good impression with two important members of House Stark.  Oh, and Bran and the saddle lol.  Yes, he has gotten some Starks in the saddle (pun intended) when he was not even intending to manipulate for political purposes.

This man is most certainly very "middle grey" and I think he will both benefit and suffer from both his good and bad deeds, which is ironic and maybe unfair but hey this is George and IMHO much better than a tale where all virtue is rewarded and all wickedness avenged.

Oh, another thing the little guy excels at is powerful speeches and knowing how to adapt them to the audience.  With Bronn and the Mountain Clans he plays it vulgar and funny, with the people facing Stannis, wow, he was pretty impressive.  His own fault really, that he was alone in that pickle to be honest.  He knew of Sandor's fear of fire... he overlooked it.  Bad mistake.  Still, he realised quickly enough that this had to be lead, if not by a popular army commander, by a member of the royal family and he really did deliver with that speech!

Let's hope he can find a way to charm the Others lol

 

[Makk]

On 2/10/2018 at 6:36 AM, Moiraine Sedai said:

It's not awesome.  He doomed the lad to death by lions.  It was bitterness and spite.

I must admit I don't really care about fAegon but I'm not trying to cast a moral judgment here. I think it was awesome because it was an exceedingly clever manipulation, a perfect play on an egotistical teenagers insecurities. He only planted a suggestion and even gave a backhanded warning fAegon ignored (as Tyrion knew he would).

He is not doomed to die by Lions either, it is pretty clear that Tyrion did it to isolate fAegon from Daenerys, and fAegon's doom, when it comes, will most likely be from a Dragon.

It's is a tricky topic to discuss because although we can be pretty sure Tyrion was manipulating fAegon, we are much less certain about why. I believe Tyrion has figured out he is Illyrio's son rather than Aerys' and that he wants isolate them so he himself can assume a position of power at Daenerys' side. The only reason I am uncertain about that is that is he was still with them when he performed the manipulation, I presume he meant to escape or convince Connington to leave him behind when they departed for Westeros, but there is a risk in that. Anyway, that also means I think you are wrong about bitterness and spite. I think it much more likely he did this motivated by greed.

[Varysblackfyre321]

8 minutes ago, Morgana Lannister said:

First, with Jon.  He was a bit harsh with his words, repeatedly calling him bastard but then he keeps calling himself dwarf.  He is also harsh in that he teaches Jon that, although Jon is idealistic and means well, the others see him in a different light (too high born) and that he needs to take that into consideration, but he does so whilst also possibly saving his life and I don't think his purpose there could have been anything other than altruistic.  Yes, this is pre trial Tyrion and he goes down hill from there, although I do think both him and Arya are bouncing back, if not completely, in part.

Jon at this point is using the Night's watch to exercise his teen angst; he slowly grows to respect the honor in the brotherhood and he checks his privellage having learned how poor can be by associating with the other none-noble recruits. 

Tyrion however recognizes what Jon is trying to do and tries to warn the kid on what exactly he's asking for.

38 minutes ago, Morgana Lannister said:

ext, Sansa.  He had no reason to interfere with Joffrey when he had her beaten up in the Throne Room.  He gained nothing from it and risked possible punishment by Joffrey or Cersei although, granted, he was in a much better position given his family ties to do it than anyone else in that room.  Also, when they married, yes the guy was sexually tempted, hey, he is human, and given the description one with a high sex drive, but not only he disobeys his father but he tries to make her life as pleasant as possible.  She tries not to acknowledge this for he is a Lannister after all but it is almost pitiful to see him trying; like when he suggest they take a trip to Casterly Rock.  To her that may have been an insult but to him it was a way to distract her, to please her.  Had she been more skilled, more like she is now, and Margaery was then, say, she could have played him like a fiddle "me thinks".

You do not abuse noble born prisoners; especially when their family have hostages of their own; whatever cruelty Joffery enacts upon Sansa if word got back to Robb it would be all the excuse the boy needs to abuse Jaimie. Of he pitied the girl but his motives aren't totally pure in regards to her. 

[Morgana Lannister]

3 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Jon at this point is using the Night's watch to exercise his teen angst; he slowly grows to respect the honor in the brotherhood and he checks his privellage having learned how poor can be by associating with the other none-noble recruits. 

Tyrion however recognizes what Jon is trying to do and tries to warn the kid on what exactly he's asking for.

You do not abuse noble born prisoners; especially when their family have hostages of their own; whatever cruelty Joffery enacts upon Sansa if word got back to Robb it would be all the excuse the boy needs to abuse Jaimie. Of he pitied the girl but his motives aren't totally pure in regards to her. 

Definitely in agreement re Jon.  I guess we were both in agreement from the beginning.

As for Sansa, yes, and yes of course Jaime is a prisoner at that stage, nearly forgot lol   Still I think there is a mixture there in terms of yes, keeping the prisoner safe but also Tyrion does not exhibit any sadistic tendencies until he is abandoned by everyone, or so he thinks.  I very much doubt he was immune to Sansa's sufferings, whether an element of it or not was yes Jaime.  He was quite happy to keep awkward Pod as his squire.  He did not start off as a bad person.  He may sacrifice someone if he sees no other way but I don't think he enjoyed it at that stage at least...

Anyhow, irrelevant to my point.  My point is that it is possible that later on in the story, where the North needs him and Danny or where they desperately need the north, he has successfully paved an allegiance through a brief but old friendship.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

Making the s*** flow better at the Rock. Tywin obviously demeaned him by giving him that position and Tyrion took the insult in stride

[Morgana Lannister]

2 hours ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

Making the s*** flow better at the Rock. Tywin obviously demeaned him by giving him that position and Tyrion took the insult in stride

Well, I was convinced from when I read that in the books that he will utilise that knowledge of the pipes to his advantage in the future.  I could be wrong of course but I was pleased to see it come to pass in the show (although I wasn't totally happy with what happened there in the show) but hey this is a books thread

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

3 minutes ago, Morgana Lannister said:

Well, I was convinced from when I read that in the books that he will utilise that knowledge of the pipes to his advantage in the future.  I could be wrong of course but I was pleased to see it come to pass in the show (although I wasn't totally happy with what happened there in the show) but hey this is a books thread

Oh I feel the same way. 100% 

Isn't there a quote somewhere about Tyrion making some kind of secret alcove or cave type place to safely entertain his female company? Or am I confused?

[Morgana Lannister]

On 2/10/2018 at 7:17 PM, Tygett Lannister said:

Where is the part where he is crucified and than comes from the dead? This is not bible bruf

Well, I cannot imagine much worse than being accused of a murder you have not committed and sentenced to death for it.  Not only that but being severely ridiculed in the process.  He is a dwarf and has been ridiculed all his life, that hurt lol (Shae's confession) especially when he treat her as a princess best he could (without putting her life at risk).  Worse of all, he thought he had some friends, and he did, but he is too blinded by this wrong imprissonment to see it (like Varys -likely for his own ends - and Jaime - genuine).  Now Pod stuck with him but he was powerless and Tyrion tried to protect him by telling him to leave the city ASAP.  Okay, it was too much to ask Bronn to go against the Mountain just for friendship but Bronn's interaction with him made him feel very betrayed, very alone in his darkest hour.  No one proposes that he is a Jesus type but I would challenge many, including myself, to do much better in his circumstances. 

Yes, he should have escaped and let matters be and considered himself fortunate.  Could had kicked him hard in the head for that lol but I think Varys was deliberate in telling him where they were underground.  He couldn't guarantee what Tyrion would do but he knew him a bit but this is so complex that most of what I could say belong in another topic.

Okay, to me that is the part when he is metaphorically "crucified."  We haven't gotten yet to when he comes back.  It will be a slow process but it has began in ADWD (mainly towards the end).  He will dedicate his political skill to something he believes worthy.  Hey, he is never going to be a little angel but, okay, admittedly, I am a huge Tyrion fan (faults and all), I think people get too stuck on stuff he has done when kind of out of his mind, and not worse than anyone who visits a prostitute in Essos (not that I like the scene, but I think that is the point, we are not supposed to like the scene and he is just going through a break down) but most of his total detractors seem to forget what psychological effect a whole lifetime of mental abuse (which I am sure most dwarfs or cripples or something suffered, but maybe not by their own fathers... can do to one).  When we first meet him, he has a moral compass, even if his family may come first, but we can see how horrible it is to be mocked and dismissed at all times.  This is horrific bullying over a lifetime.  To be honest, he was too well balanced to be realistic to begin with.

[Morgana Lannister]

21 hours ago, Makk said:

I must admit I don't really care about fAegon but I'm not trying to cast a moral judgment here. I think it was awesome because it was an exceedingly clever manipulation, a perfect play on an egotistical teenagers insecurities. He only planted a suggestion and even gave a backhanded warning fAegon ignored (as Tyrion knew he would).

He is not doomed to die by Lions either, it is pretty clear that Tyrion did it to isolate fAegon from Daenerys, and fAegon's doom, when it comes, will most likely be from a Dragon.

It's is a tricky topic to discuss because although we can be pretty sure Tyrion was manipulating fAegon, we are much less certain about why. I believe Tyrion has figured out he is Illyrio's son rather than Aerys' and that he wants isolate them so he himself can assume a position of power at Daenerys' side. The only reason I am uncertain about that is that is he was still with them when he performed the manipulation, I presume he meant to escape or convince Connington to leave him behind when they departed for Westeros, but there is a risk in that. Anyway, that also means I think you are wrong about bitterness and spite. I think it much more likely he did this motivated by greed.

I agree with most of your post but greed? why? how???  If greed was the case then the way is to get Casterly.  Okay, say, he waggered on her dragons which I think likely and well getting rid of the Lannisters in KL to make way... I could see that but ultimately only a successful conqueror can feed his "greed."  Although Tyrion clearly has expensive taste, I don't think greed is his primary motivation at all.  A greedy man doesn't spend tons of coin in silks and jewels and drinks for his mistresses and friends.  He is hedonistic for sure but not greedy, I don't think.  They greedy like to accumulate.  Tyrion spends...the opposite to LF, say, who hoards and accumulates.  LF is the clever one in that for sure but Tyrion just wants coin for what it can buy nor for a rainy day.

Tyrion may have been a little immoral in tricking Aegon on a potential way of action but he wasn't "sacrificing him" that would be moot for his revenge purposes and would give ammunition to his sister...  Objectively, I think the advice he gave was generally sound, if we are to include the part that he also warned him not to leave the dragon too far behind...

[Morgana Lannister]

29 minutes ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

Oh I feel the same way. 100% 

Isn't there a quote somewhere about Tyrion making some kind of secret alcove or cave type place to safely entertain his female company? Or am I confused?

Not that I recall, sorry.  There is an element in him using subterranean passages when having it off with Shae but that was in the Red Keep.  We do not have any narrative as to whether he entertained tavern girls or something in Casterly post Tysha.  But either way, the fact that he managed that job should give him enough information if he ever needs it...

[Makk]

1 hour ago, Morgana Lannister said:

I agree with most of your post but greed? why? how???  If greed was the case then the way is to get Casterly.  Okay, say, he waggered on her dragons which I think likely and well getting rid of the Lannisters in KL to make way... I could see that but ultimately only a successful conqueror can feed his "greed."  Although Tyrion clearly has expensive taste, I don't think greed is his primary motivation at all.  A greedy man doesn't spend tons of coin in silks and jewels and drinks for his mistresses and friends.  He is hedonistic for sure but not greedy, I don't think.  They greedy like to accumulate.  Tyrion spends...the opposite to LF, say, who hoards and accumulates.  LF is the clever one in that for sure but Tyrion just wants coin for what it can buy nor for a rainy day.

Tyrion may have been a little immoral in tricking Aegon on a potential way of action but he wasn't "sacrificing him" that would be moot for his revenge purposes and would give ammunition to his sister...  Objectively, I think the advice he gave was generally sound, if we are to include the part that he also warned him not to leave the dragon too far behind...

Greed as in lust for power. I don't believe there is any other reason to separate them. The advice was generally sound because that is the best way to trick someone. Keep everything as truthful and logical as possible, and only deviate where necessary. 

[Morgana Lannister]

16 hours ago, Makk said:

Greed as in lust for power. I don't believe there is any other reason to separate them. The advice was generally sound because that is the best way to trick someone. Keep everything as truthful and logical as possible, and only deviate where necessary. 

Oh, I don't know what happened here but I quoted you and nothing appeared as a reply lol  Okay I took greed as to mean monetary gain.  Yes, he is definitely a character who likes power but I think he sees himself more as a second in command than monarch, although okay you never said that he wanted the IT exactly.  I still maintain that he stands to gain more if Aegon succeeds against Cersei and Co, bonus points if he manages to neutralise the High Sparrow.  What we don't know is whether he rather have a Dany/Aegon coalition or go all out for Danny.  I personally think that he is sitting on the fence to see how things pan out.  It is even possible that it has crossed his mind that the Tyrells (depending largely on how Margaery's trial goes) could back Aegon...  but would this benefit him or not?  It would give a better chance to Aegon but this only benefits him in terms of revenge, not necessarily long term if he decides to back Dany or Aegon and Dany don't see eye to eye.  I still maintain that at that stage is trying to test the waters before backing one side fully.  Still there is the element that he appears genuinely surprised that Aegon acted on his advice.

Now, assuming that Tyrion is like 20 moves ahead of the game, the timing of Aegon's invasion could be crucial. No doubt he is going to cause some damage to Cersei's rule via Tommen and if he really thinks that Dany has to rule without Aegon, he can also be maybe hoping that both parties cancel each other out to some extend so the game is ripe for Dany afterwards.  It really is hard to get into his mind completely but if I had to make a bet I would go for him guessing that this lad is too arrogant to rule jointly and, to be honest, he hasn't yet met Dany but I am sure he has heard much and more about her, but it could go two ways with her, either it could speed up her coming back to Westeros to give support to her nephew or she could try and force him to bend the knee, which I think is more likely.  Now if this is the case, giving Aegon an opportunity (by timing it right) to win the IT could well backfire on him.  

Another variable here of course is Varys.  Most people seem convinced that he is backing FAegon.  I wouldn't be so sure.  If this is the case, for one thing if he thinks it is too risky to allow him to take Tyrion's advice (even if he doesn't know that Tyrion suggested this plan) he would whisper on his ear somehow to prevent this happening so soon.  Personally I think, without having talked about it, that Varys and Tyrion and on the same page in terms of letting the lad do what damage it can to the IT current occupants but watch and see... I think they both have their doubts as to whether the crowd will accept Aegon as the real deal and as to whether he would indeed be a capable ruler.  My prediction is that Aegon will take the throne indeed but will make some terrible mistakes at some point.  Either that or Euron + Cersei manage to take him down by sheer force.  Cersei's faction seems too weak at this stage...  a bit too good to be true...so I wouldn't rule out that she is going to gain some powerful ally but hey, digressing again, sorry.