Morgana Lannister Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Okay, I know much and more has been discussed regarding whether Arya is likely or not to be in trouble with the FM, whether killing a guard was her mission, her mission was something else or there was no mission. Still, the more I think about this chapter, the more I think there are a hell of a lot of variables here with potential further implications beyond whether Arya goes back to Essos, stays longer etc. Firstly, Kevan (prior to his death) sent his father in law to negotiate with the Iron Bank. Yes, sure, it could be just to beg them for extra time. However, even in real life, ordinary high street banks want a little something if they are to renew a repayment agreement that has been defaulted on and especially if the debtors are trying to secure further loans. Also, the "Emissary from Westeros" and his retinue appeared to be treated with great privileges, such as him being accompanied by the most prestigious courtesan etc. Then again, the Tyrells are rich and, provided Margaery is acquitted, it is in their interest that her and her husband remain in power (everyone seems to know the reputation of the IB backing other candidates). Also, it has never been stated in the books that the mines of Casterly have run dry. We know from early in the series, GOT in fact, that the Crown owed a huge amount to Tywin. It is conceivable that, in utter despair, poor Kevan had decided (probably behind Cersei's back) to forgive the debt and that he is probably even prepared to put some more money forward as long as the IB doesn't "foreclose" on them (as we would say today, whatever name they used in them days). Cersei is too cocky to accept this but hey she was in a cell more likely when he decided (assuming he did) upon this course of action. This could have well been a reason why Varys decided to get rid of Kevan. Well, that and the fact that he was the most competent of the Lannister/Tyrell alliance after Tywin. Now, where am I going with this? The fact that I think extremely unlikely that the Lannisters & Co are able to settle the debt in full but that they come with a good incentive or some very sound collateral. My guess is that they are putting forward a lot of capital, say 30, 50% of the debt of some such and proposing sensible, affordable repayments in installments for the rest or a good collateral (possibly the collateral provided by the Tyrells...). I know I am basing this a lot on modern banking modus operandi but I just don't see early banking as being that different. The IB of course knows in advance that they are recovering good coppers, if not the total, hence since they are highly influential in Braavos Swift & Co are getting treated like royalty. There could be more to it though. We know that the current SeaLord is not long for this world and that Tormo Fregar is the favourite candidate, but still an election of sorts (if I remember rightly) is involved. Maybe not as fierce an election campaign as ours nowadays but fierce must be for sure. Now, one faction or another (we haven't seen them yet and may never do if not too relevant) may have chosen to part-finance the Lannisters in exchange for their influence in the Braavos election. Now how can the Lannisters/Tyrells influence the SeaLord election? Not sure on that one, since surely the bank could have done it themselves but hey, maybe they are providing the IT with some money to please the bank so that the bank doesn't interfere too much, provided the IB doesn't have a huge interest in one particular candidate. There are a lot of "ifs" here, I know, and we don't know who the parties are and what they stand for so guessing who backs people we don't even know is hard lol. Now, if the IB gets an offer from the IT they cannot refuse, depending on whether they treat their own reputation in a similar fashion to the Golden Company (say, "we never break a contract") they are in a pickle because they have already offered Stannis their backing. Okay, maybe not strictly true since they have only promised Stannis and Jon a loan, not necessarily backing.... but I think this was done not too discreetly to send a message to the IT. Now the question is: do they seem themselves committed by some sort of banking honour to Stannis? Can they take the money from the IT and lend enough to Stannis to have a chance? What is their code of conduct? Several crackpot ideas have come to my mind but none of them make a huge deal of sense. a) If the IB feels bound to backing Stannis and feel they cannot pull out after that was sealed they could try to derail the IT's deal in a sneaky way and maybe that is where the FM come into. But wouldn't it be simple to just say no, sorry too late...? Again, surely banks hedge their bets and giving money to Stannis does not secure a victory... so keep them all sweet, then no need for derailment and possibly no associated mission for Arya. b ) they are just lenders - they could say so what? we lent him money, we are lending you money, no big deal and no plot consequences for now. c) Braavos was founded by former slaves. There are rumours that they have dealt in slavery themselves though, still, surely they have heard of what is going on in Slavers Bay, shouldn't they be supporting Danny? I am certain that these links will meet somewhere in the plot: i.e. the SeaLord election, Stannis and the IT loans and interests, possibly Danny, possibly Aegon... My mind is spinning with this one. I am certain though that the IB and the FM are very, very connected, not just because they deal with one another but much more fundamentally as "A World of Ice and Fire" appears to suggest with the buildings alone. Now Arya has in her possession a key that "doesn't belong to Mercy," and it doesn't seem to me to belong to Arya either. Whether it was given to her or she stole it I couldn't say but that is important for sure. My first thought is that she was on a "mission" to derail the deal with the IT on behalf of the IB, to steal some paperwork mayhaps??? Also we don't know yet if the negotiations have taken place (IT and IB) or are about to but Braavos are welcoming these people so the deal is certainly not officially off. Now stealing the "contract" may have been up to Mercy later on in the week or something. We don't seem to have the timelime for that. Still, I find it too coincidental that our novice FM finds herself in the middle of all these politics. I really think she was on a job but not a killing one. Many argue that she is too unpredictable and inexperienced to be trusted with something huge. Although I agree, maybe they saw stuff in her, like she can warg etc, she is from Westeros that made them feel she was their best bet. Now, every statement I have made is an assumption based more on what I consider logic than anything else and every premise contradicts another one lol. Now, what do you guys think? Could I be onto something on some of this? e-cookies and Arbor Gold to anyone who tries to untie this knot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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