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James Fenimore Cooper XXII

Daenerys is Azor Ahai.

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Megorova,

I agree with you that Jon is going to return.  But those prophecies from the house of the undying that you quoted above has nothing to do with Jon being Azor Ahai.  I disagree with your opinion that he is Azor Ahai and you have proven nothing.  Jon is not Azor Ahai.  Yes, Jon is important, but he is not as important as Daenerys Targaryen, who is the main character in the story.  She is the Azor Ahai, the Prince Who Was Promised.  She fulfilled all of the criteria.

I will trust Benerro's interpretation more than Melissandre.  Besides, you're jumping ahead of the text and thinking up scenarios that is very unlikely to happen regarding Jon's body.  And you didn't read carefully what the thread author wrote, which makes more sense than what you wrote.  Those men in Dany's visions are definitely not the Targaryen kings because most of them never reached that old of an age and they certainly never had glowing swords and they never wore raggedy clothing (other than Baelor the Blessed).  They were not the Targaryens of Old Valyria because the Freehold did not have kings.  So when else were the Targaryens kings?  In the very, very distant past.  And the glowing swords point to these men being previous reincarnations of Azor Ahai.  I agree with the thread author's theory and I find it sound, Dany is Azor Ahai of this time and that AA is female this time is the game changer that will end the inconsistent climate shifts on the planet.  You have not given me anything that would convince me otherwise.  :)

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22 hours ago, Noble Lothar Frey said:

Jon is not Azor Ahai because he will not be coming back.  At least not in the form of a man.  He may come back as a dog in the form of Ghost but he is not coming back as a man.  Good old Bowen made sure of that.  I'm not even sure that Jon will come back as a dog.  Bowen Marsh and the guys will find Ghost and finish him off too.  

    How do you know that? George R.R. Martin told you so? There is a difference between saying I believe/think then will/won't. One thing is what we desire, other is following the logic of the book.

    I desire that Jon is Azor Ahai and see facts and things in the book that point that way. Yes, Daenerys Targaryen is the most likely candidate to be Azor Ahai but it is not certain. In m personal point of view, Jon or Daenerys is Azor Ahai with 100% of certainty. 

    We shall see.

    

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1 hour ago, HallowedMarcus said:

    How do you know that? George R.R. Martin told you so? There is a difference between saying I believe/think then will/won't. One thing is what we desire, other is following the logic of the book.

    I desire that Jon is Azor Ahai and see facts and things in the book that point that way. Yes, Daenerys Targaryen is the most likely candidate to be Azor Ahai but it is not certain. In m personal point of view, Jon or Daenerys is Azor Ahai with 100% of certainty. 

    We shall see.

    

Very good point.  You should say this to the ones who are certain of R + L = J.  They are the ones who really need to hear this.  

I desire for Dany to be Azor Ahai because I like her and I am partial to clues that support that.  So there we go.  I believe Dany is Azor Ahai, based on what I have read in the books and the fan theories on this forum.  But yeah, with GM, one can never be absolutely sure.  Though I am confident that she is Azor Ahai.  100% confident?  No, but say about 80%.

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I think we'll never know for sure. Perhaps Dany is Azur Ahai, perhaps Jon is, prince that was promised( the entities that were assumed the same indivual from the propecies were two separate entities), perhaps hot pie(I believe), is Azur Ahai. I don't think we'll ever get a clear cut answer nor really is that the point.

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On 02.03.2018 at 2:17 PM, E.S. Dinah said:

The prophecy of Azor Ahai comes from the east.  I don't know why Mellisandre ever thought it was Stannis. 

Rhaegar was Prince of Dragonstone. After his death the title passed to his first son Aegon. After death of little Aegon, next in line is Rhaegar's second son Jon. Thus Jon Snow is Prince of Dragonstone. But currently that title is held by Stannis. Robert usurped Iron Throne, and Stannis usurped Dragonstone.

Could be that Melisandre saw in a vision, that Azor Ahai is Prince of Dragonstone. That's why she is so sure, that it is Stannis.

On 28.02.2018 at 7:05 AM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The swords of pale fire baffled me. 

Valyrian steel swords of Targaryens.

Could be that Valyrian steel is forged in dragonfire.

“Ser Jorah Mormont,” she said, “first and greatest of my knights, I have no bride gift to give you, but I swear to you, one day you shall have from my hands a longsword like none the world has ever seen, dragon-forged and made of Valyrian steel. And I would ask for your oath as well.” - AGOT, Dany X.

So maybe a bit of dragonfire remains inside of Valyrian steel, like phantom. Thus it was described as pale fire.

 

Iron Throne was forged in dragonfire. And there's two interesting details about it:

  • "The way the throne is described in the books... HUGE, hulking, black and twisted, with the steep iron stairs in front" - GRRM's livejournal, The Real Iron Throne.
  • "Have you ever seen the Iron Throne? The barbs along the back, the ribbons of twisted steel, the jagged ends of swords and knives all tangled up and melted? " - ASOS, Davos IV, Stannis to Davos.

So could be that Iron Throne is made of Valyrian steel. Some of it is iron - Throne's stairs are iron. But the rest of it, all those swords, forged together in dragonflame, they are Valyrian steel. GRRM, when describing Iron Throne, said BLACK AND TWISTED, and Stannis said words TWISTED STEEL, and Bran thought in first chapter of AGOT - "The blade was Valyrian steel, spell-forged and dark as smoke."

Dark as smoke - black, ribbons of black and twisted steel in Iron Throne - Valyrian steel.

So my guess, is that Jon will find out, that Valyrian steel can kill white walkers and the Others. Then, when he will see Iron Throne, he will realise that the Throne is also made from Valyrian steel, same as his Longclaw. And thus Iron Throne will be dismantled, and reforged into thousands Valyrian steel swords. And that's how the Others will be defeated - by army of elite warriors wielding Valyrian blades.

 

When Rhaegar thought that he is the Prince that was promised, he thought that he needs to become a warrior, to have a sword and armor, because the promised Prince is a warrior. And Dany isn't. Thus she is also not Azor Ahai. She's just one of three heads of the dragon.

On 28.02.2018 at 3:56 AM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

So if Azor Ahai won, why did the long night last so long?

It lasted so long only in Westeros, in Essos it ended much sooner.

Azor Ahai lived in Essos, and thus he killed the Others only in Essos.

Long Night happened 8.000 years ago, and the Arm of Dorne, thru which First Men passed to Westeros, was broken 12.000 years ago.

Big ships, able to cross seas, were build by Andals and Rhoynars. Andal invasion happened 6.000 years ago, Rhoynars came to Westeros ~1.000 years ago.

And dragons were found by Valyrians, when Long Night in Westeros already ended.

8.000 years ago, when Long Night happened, the Arm of Dorne was already broken for 4.000 years, dragons weren't yet found, Andal civilisation (that was able to build big ships and castles) didn't existed yet. So there was no way for Azor Ahai to come to Westeros, to deal with the local Others. Thus in Essos, the Others were annihilated by Azor Ahai, and Long Night there ended, but in Westeros it was still ongoing. And after it lasted for generation, the Last Hero went to Children. And together they managed to push back the Others, to far northern side of continent. And they build The Wall to keep them there. The Others were there for the last 8.000 years, even after Long Night ended. Probably they were periodically attacking The Wall, trying to get on the other side. 13th Lord Commander of Night's Watch, had been making sacrifices to the Others. It was mentioned in the books, that last time the Others (or maybe white walkers) were seen 1.000 or 2.000 years ago (don't remember where exactly was it mentioned).

So the Others in Westeros weren't defeated, just pushed back.

And Azor Ahai didn't came to Westeros, either because of logistical problems, or because - why should he? -> He was serving to R'hllor, and Westerosi were worshiping Old Gods and Drowned God, not R'hllor.

Azor Ahai was a Red priest, or something like that, and he served to Lord of Light:

"And so for thirty days and thirty nights Azor Ahai labored sleepless in the temple, forging a blade in the sacred fires." - ACOK, Davos I.

Temples with sacred fires in Essos, are temples of R'hllor. Azor Ahai has spent in one of those temples six months (30 days to forge first sword, 50 for second try, and 100 for third, 180 days or half of a year in total). If he had such an extended access to the temple, and was allowed to forge his sword in temple's sacred fires, then it could mean, that he was not only one of workers/servants of that temple, he was someone with high standing, maybe even the High Priest himself.

So one of possible reasons is logistics. The other is different religions of Azor Ahai and people of Westeros. Or maybe R'hllor didn't informed Azor Ahai, that there are more Others in Westeros. Or maybe appearance of the Others in Essos and in Westeros, happened in different time. Maybe in Westeros they appeared years after Azor Ahai died from old age. Or could be that Azor Ahai was killing/defeating the Others in Essos, and when they were fleeng from him, they created ice bridge and crossed the Narrow Sea, and then removed the bridge. GRRM said: "The Others can do things with ice that we can't imagine and make substances of it." - 2003, Interview with the Dragon, Robert Shaw.

If they can manipulate ice, then they could have used this ability, to go to Westeros.

Either way, whatever happened in Westeros, doesn't mean that Azor Ahai didn't defeated the Others in Essos.

Edited by Megorova

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Rhaegar was Prince of Dragonstone. After his death the title passed to his first son Aegon. After death of little Aegon, next in line is Rhaegar's second son Jon. Thus Jon Snow is Prince of Dragonstone. But currently that title is held by Stannis. Robert usurped Iron Throne, and Stannis usurped Dragonstone.

Could be that Melisandre saw in a vision, that Azor Ahai is Prince of Dragonstone. That's why she is so sure, that it is Stannis.

Rhaegar's children, present and future, got disinherited when King Aerys II chose to make Prince Viserys his heir.  Prince Viserys became King Viserys III when his mother, Queen Rhaella, crowned him on Dragonstone.  Rhaegar's children are entitled to nothing.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Valyrian steel swords of Targaryens.

Some of the Targaryen kings of Westeros had Valyrian Steel swords but they never glowed.  They never gave off heat.  The OP's interpretation of that vision in the House of the Undying is correct.  Those men were not the Targaryen kings of Westeros.  They were each the Azor Ahai of his time period.  Dany is the resurrection of Azor Ahai in this cycle and the fact that she is the first female AA could be the difference in finally resetting the erratic weather patterns on Planetos.  

I really liked the theory posited above in regards to the great lion of the night, the maiden of the light, and the Amethyst Empress.  Should the reincarnation of the Amethyst Empress locate the reincarnation of her brother, the red emperor and kill him, the parents might be satisfied and their anger abated enough to return the weather pattern back to normal.  

 

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On 05.03.2018 at 2:40 AM, 300 H&H Magnum said:

But those prophecies from the house of the undying that you quoted above has nothing to do with Jon being Azor Ahai.  I disagree with your opinion that he is Azor Ahai and you have proven nothing.  Jon is not Azor Ahai.  Yes, Jon is important, but he is not as important as Daenerys Targaryen, who is the main character in the story.  She is the Azor Ahai, the Prince Who Was Promised.  She fulfilled all of the criteria.

Dragon has three heads. Dany has three dragons. Thus she needs two more dragonriders with Targaryen blood. And Jon is one of them.

Spoiler

Dany thought, that she needs to have two husbands, that will become dragonriders. In a trinity of visions about bride of fire, one of visions is about blue flower on the wall of ice. Blue winter roses are symbol of Rhaegar's and Lyanna's love. Jon, their child, is also symbol of their love. The Undying called Dany bride of fire, which means that her fiance/husband/lover is the fire, and that fire is the blue flower from the trinity of visions titled bride of fire. The other vision from that trinity is - "Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars." - this is from her wedding night with Khal Drogo. And first fire that she lighted, the one for life, was Drogo's funeral pyre, that gave life to Dany's dragons. And first treason, the one for blood, was Dothraki from Drogo's khalasar kidnapping newborn Rhaego. Events from the vision set daughter of death (death of Viserys) and slayer of lies (Stannis declaring himself Azor Ahai reborn) happened in the same period of time.

All those events were connected thru Drogo - 

daughter of death - Viserys screamed as the molten gold ran down his cheeks and filled his mouth - Viserys was killed on Drogo's order.  

three fires must you light . . . one for life - Drogo's funeral pyre gave life to Dany's dragons.

three mounts must you ride . . . one to bed - this could be either Drogo, or Daario, that became Dany's first lover, after death of her first husband.

three treasons will you know . . . once for blood - Dany's child was kidnapped by Drogo's people.

slayer of lies - Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. - Stannis declared himself King and Azor Ahai, shortly after Robert's death. After Robert died, was executed Ned Stark. The Bleeding Star appeared in skies of Westeros, on next day after Ned's execution, and above Essos on the next night when Drogo died, and Dany's dragons were hatched.

All those events are connected one way or the other to Dany's first husband. Same thing with her second and third husbands.

This is visions connected to Hizdahr:

three fires must you light . . . one for death - Dany will burn something or someone in Meereen. Maybe Hizdahr himself.

three mounts must you ride . . . one to dread - her treacherous second husband, who is the Harpy.

three treasons will you know . . . once for gold - Hizdahr "sold" Dany to Yunkaii.

daughter of death - A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him. - Dany was fleeing from Meereen, after Hizdahr tried to kill her, and because of this, will be reunited in Vaes Dothrak with her son Rhaego, the Stallion that will mount the world, about whom Mirri Maz Duur said "The stallion who mounts the world will burn no cities now.", and who will become second dragonrider after Dany (his dragon will be Rhaegel).

slayer of lies - A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. - after Dany will get rid of her second husband, she will finally go to Westeros, and that's where she will meet fAegon, who is actually a Blackfyre, and Varys' marionette.

bride of fire - A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. - after death of Hizdahr, Dany will use ships that arrived to Meereen (and among them fleet of Ironborn, with sacrifices tied to prows of their ships) to go to Westeros, and that's when will end second chapter of her marital life.

Third husband, Jon Snow, son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark, secret Targaryen, a chimera (stone beast) half-dragon half-direwolf, blue winter rose, and fire:

three fires must you light -  one to love.

three mounts must you ride . . . - one to love.

three treasons will you know . . . - once for love.

daughter of death - Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman’s name. - Jon's father dying, and his last words were Lyanna's name, Jon's mother's.

slayer of lies -  From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. - the lie is that Jon is bastard of Ned Stark, actually he is a secret prince, and half-Targaryen.

bride of fire - A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness. - Rhaegar gave to Lyanna crown of blue roses. In the Tower of Joy Lyanna was dying in a room, that smelled like blood and roses. There she gave birth to Jon, and when she died, withered flower petals fell from her hand. When Rhaegar was dying, he said Lyanna's name (which was confirmed by GRRM), and when Lyanna was dying, she was holding in her hand, blue roses, given to her by Rhaegar. Blue roses are symbol of their love, same as their child Jon Snow, and now he is at The Wall made of ice. And in this set of visions Dany was called bride of fire.

In all three sets, the most important to Dany, is the last out of each three, and all of those three are connected to Jon:

"Viserys screamed as the molten gold ran down his cheeks and filled his mouth. A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him. Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman’s name. . . . mother of dragons, daughter of death . . . Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . . Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness. . . . mother of dragons, bride of fire . . ."

Those visions and prophecies are clues, that Jon is a Targaryen prince, he will be Dany's third husband, one of three dragonriders (Viseryon's), one of three heads of the dragon (because he, the same as Dany, is a descendant of Jaehaerys II), and that he's also a "fire" with whom Dany will marry - Azor Ahai. Because Azor Ahai is a wielder of blazing sword. And in his dream, Jon was wielding blazing sword. And because Jon is partially Targaryen, his dreams are not just dreams, they are prophetic visions.

I'm not saying that Dany is no one, but she's not more important than Jon. Actually both of them are equals. Three heads of the dragon - Dany (The Princess that was promised, rider of Drogon), Rhaego (the Stallion that will mount the world, rider of Rhaegel), Jon (Azor Ahai, wielder of Lightbringer and rider of Viseryon).

All three of them are the princes/princess that was promised. Dany woke the dragons from stone, Jon is wielder of Lightbringer, and Rhaego is a Stallion that will mount the world. He will be the one who will end the Long Night, because same as first time, it will last for entire generation, that's probably why the book is called The Dream of Spring. Because current characters will die in battles, or from old age, before Long Night will end. So they will ever see a spring, only in their dreams. Maybe ^_^

On 05.03.2018 at 2:40 AM, 300 H&H Magnum said:

Those men in Dany's visions are definitely not the Targaryen kings because most of them never reached that old of an age and they certainly never had glowing swords and they never wore raggedy clothing (other than Baelor the Blessed).

Nothing in the vision indicated their age.

Their swords weren't glowing.

And they weren't wearing raggs.

"Ghosts lined the hallway, dressed in the faded raiment of kings. In their hands were swords of pale fire. They had hair of silver and hair of gold and hair of platinum white, and their eyes were opal and amethyst, tourmaline and jade."

Their clothing was faded, because it was indication, that they are kings from the past.

Swords of pale fire are Valyrian steel blades, forged by dragonfire. And thus they probably carry remnants of that fire inside them, and thus they are probably deadly to wights and the Others. 

Targaryen Kings that had silver hair - Jaehaerys I, Aegon III. Silver-gold - Aegon I, Viserys I, Aegon II, Baelor I, Aegon V, Aerys II. Platinum white - Maekar I. Purple eyes - Aegon I, Jaehaerys I, Aegon III, Aegon V, Jaehaerys II. Lilac eyes - Aenys I. Violet eyes - Maekar I. In the books was described hair color of 9 Targaryen Kings, and eye color of 7. Thus we don't know hair color of 8 more Kings, and eye color of 10 of them. But even based on that information that was given in the books, it's obvious that description of Targaryen Kings match with their hair and eye colors to those Kings in the vision.

On 05.03.2018 at 2:40 AM, 300 H&H Magnum said:

previous reincarnations of Azor Ahai

There's zero indications in the books, that there was more than one Azor Ahai, and more that one Long Night in the past.

On 05.03.2018 at 2:40 AM, 300 H&H Magnum said:

You have not given me anything that would convince me otherwise.  :)

Wait for the book, and let GRRM convince you. ^_^

5 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Rhaegar's children, present and future, got disinherited when King Aerys II chose to make Prince Viserys his heir.

Blood doesn't care about formalities. By blood, Jon is Prince of Dragonstone. By blood this is their order:

  1. Rhaegar
  2. Rhaenys
  3. Aegon
  4. Jon
  5. Viserys
  6. Dany
  7. Rhaego.

Prove, that blood doesn't care about formalities - Daemon II had prophetic dreams, even though officially he was a Blackfyre, and not a Targaryen. So what? Blood they shared the same. Whether they were red dragons, or black dragons, they had a gift of foresign, because of their blood.

5 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Some of the Targaryen kings of Westeros had Valyrian Steel swords but they never glowed

Neither did swords in that vision.

5 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

They never gave off heat. 

Neither did swords in that vision. ^_^

In the book was written - "swords of pale fire". No glowing, and no heat.

5 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

I really liked the theory posited above in regards to the great lion of the night, the maiden of the light, and the Amethyst Empress.  Should the reincarnation of the Amethyst Empress locate the reincarnation of her brother, the red emperor and kill him, the parents might be satisfied and their anger abated enough to return the weather pattern back to normal.  

The key to controlling seasons, is in Asshai's shadow. Dany needs to go there, and touch the light, to take over control of spaceship's motherboard, that influences Planetos with terraforming device. What spaceship? :huh: -> The one that brought dragons on Planetos, and is currently hanging above Asshai in stealth mode, casting huge shadow on lands beneath. And "radiation" emanating from it, causes Ghost Grass to grow. The more intence radiation, the more influence on planet's climat. Thus when Dothraki see, that there's a lot of Ghost Grass, they know that soon will happen artifial climatic catastrophe / Long Night. Probably the Others and dragons came to Planetos on the same spaceship. And one of them (either the Others or Masters of dragons) broke it, either accidentally or intentionally. 

"Meanwhile, in Qarth, tales state dragons came from a second moon in the sky, which was scalded by the sun and cracked like an egg, and a million dragons poured forth. In Asshai, however, there are many tales - some impossibly ancient - which claim that dragons first appeared on the Shadow Lands and a people so ancient they have no name first tamed these dragons, brought them to Valyria and taught the Valyrians their arts before departing from the annals of history."

Originally GRRM wrote sci-fi, not fantasy. So why can't there be a spaceship in his ASOIAF story? ;)

Edited by Megorova

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@Megorova I have to admit you have made some very convincing points in this thread, I'm onboard with your viewpoint and think Jon is AA not Dany as I had previously thought.

Edited by Yucef Menaerys

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On 05/03/2018 at 8:24 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I think we'll never know for sure. Perhaps Dany is Azur Ahai, perhaps Jon is, prince that was promised( the entities that were assumed the same indivual from the propecies were two separate entities), perhaps hot pie(I believe), is Azur Ahai. I don't think we'll ever get a clear cut answer nor really is that the point.

     Good point and perhaps let me add something audacious. Perhaps all 3 Daenerys Targaryen, Aegon Targaryen, and Jon Snow are all Azur Ahai. After all, a Dragon must have 3 heads, remember Daenerys vision? 

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1 hour ago, HallowedMarcus said:

     Good point and perhaps let me add something audacious. Perhaps all 3 Daenerys Targaryen, Aegon Targaryen, and Jon Snow are all Azur Ahai. After all, a Dragon must have 3 heads, remember Daenerys vision? 

I think that there are indeed three saviors, but I doubt that Aegon is one of them. I think that Young Griff is not real Aegon. It was about him, what Dany saw in one of her visions - he is the mummer's dragon. His connection with Golden Company could be a hint, that he is a Blackfyre. Thus fAegon is one of lies, that Dany will slay, according to the prophecy of the Undying. If he is a lie, then he is not one of Jaehaerys II's descendants, and thus he is not one of three.

Quaithe also warned Dany about fAegon:

"The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."   

Kraken is Euron. Dark flame is red priest Moqorro. Lion is Tyrion Lannister. Griffin is Jon Connington. The sun's son is Quentin Martell. Mummer's dragon is Young Griff, and the mummer is Varys. Perfumed seneschal is Illyrio.

This means that Tyrion is not Targaryen, and that Aegon isn't Dany's nephew. Thus the third dragonrider will be someone else, not fAegon.

And Rhaego's burning heart is a clue that he is the promised Prince (one of three):

"Her son was tall and proud, with Drogo’s copper skin and her own silver-gold hair, violet eyes shaped like almonds. And he smiled for her and began to lift his hand toward hers, but when he opened his mouth the fire poured out. She saw his heart burning through his chest, and in an instant he was gone, consumed like a moth by a candle, turned to ash."

Fire pouring out of Rhaego's mouth is an indication, that he will be red priest (kiss of fire/life), and servant of R'hllor. And burning heart is a symbol of Azor Ahai or the promised Prince. Currently Stannis is using burning heart as his symbol, because Melisandre convinced him, that he is Azor Ahai.

Three dragons, three dragonriders, and three saviors.

There were even hints given in AGOT, who will become first dragonrider, who will be second, and third. And which of them will ride which dragon.

Edited by Megorova

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On 2/27/2018 at 8:56 PM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Daenerys goes through three cycles of sleep+dream+waking.  Each time, her fears and her doubts are burned away.  The themes of the dreams have fire, tears, water, blood, and always dragons.  Fire and water are necessary for the tempering of weapons.  Daenerys herself goes through a tempering.  She comes through stronger and more sure of herself.  The Dragon has awoken. 

I like the analogy to the tempering of metal.  Definitely.

On 2/27/2018 at 8:56 PM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

The ghost of dead kings in faded clothing are not Targaryen monarchs.  I think they are the previous incarnations of Azor Ahai.  Why are they cheering her on?  Because she can do what they failed to do.  End the cycle of the long night for good.  She is the first female of their line and the only one who can bring dragons to battle.  The best they had were swords of pale fire, which pale in comparison to three dragons.

 

On 2/27/2018 at 8:56 PM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Thanks for the thoughtful replies to my original topic. I have done some more reading and came up with additional ideas on this topic.  Apologies because we have gone to the side of the road and veered to the left of the topic.  But this is still about Dany so I feel it's fine to proceed.  So those old men with the swords of fire.  They were Azor Ahai and the vision doesn't paint a picture of men who were in their primes and the tattered clothes probably meant they had not changed for a long time.  What could make kings wear faded and worn clothing?  The more I think on this and the more I read people's comments the more I refine my original ideas.  The clothes are faded because they were living through the long night!  Lack of food, spare clothing, gaunt, pale.  All point to people who lost civilization.  And their bespoke tailors!  

This is something new to the table and I like it.  Old kings wearing worn out clothing and carrying around glowing swords.  That they were living through the long night is a very good explanation. 

On 2/27/2018 at 8:56 PM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

This is consistent with Nan's story of a night that lasted for a lifetime.

Agreed

On 2/28/2018 at 0:05 AM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The swords of pale fire baffled me.  Pale fire looks like electric light.  Light that does not come from a flame, which is yellow fire.  The glass candles may not be lanterns at all but weapons.  If the original story was inspired by the lord of rings then why not a weapon that glows when the enemy is nearby.  In this case, when the enemy is stirring.  Dany is Azor Ahai and she will end up owning a glass candle before the end of this story.  Think about this.  A sword that drives away the darkness.  The darkness fled before the sword.  The glass candles are burning bright and only light drives away the darkness.  It is not a sword but to the ancients, anything long, pointed, and used against an enemy is a sword.  I think George Martin is being cute here.   Maybe he's a Star Wars fan.  Glass Candle = Light + Sword = Lightsaber = lights the darkness = Lightbringer.  Or think of it as a big flashlight.  Dany is not a swordsman but she can wield a glass candle to light the darkness ahead.

 

On 3/2/2018 at 7:17 AM, E.S. Dinah said:

The prophecy of Azor Ahai comes from the east.  I don't know why Mellisandre ever thought it was Stannis.  I don't think George Martin is a nihilist who will turn the world back to prehistoric times.  Dany (Azor Ahai) will find a way to help her people endure the long winter.  If the myth is true that the first long night was caused by the blood betrayal then it is reasonable to assume that the way to end it is to set things right.  By right, I mean to satisfy the Lion of the Night (the moon).  The Lion of the Night and the Maiden Made of Light (the sun) punished man for the blood betrayal.  The Maiden Made of Light (the sun) his her face, thus causing the long night.  The Lion of the Night (the moon) sent his white walkers to punish man.  That's how the myth goes.  If Dany is the reincarnation of their daughter, the Amethyst Empress, then her mere birth should satisfy the Lion of the Night, appease his anger and make him (the moon, the symbol for the night) go away.  The rebirth of her daughter may be enough to please the Maiden Made of Light (the sun) and draw her back into the world. 

I don't think warring against the white walkers is the answer.  Quite possibly, Dany will have to avenge the blood betrayal and seek out the reincarnation of her brother and kill him.  I'm fine with that. 

Agreed.  Any theories on what happens when the maiden made of light and the lion of the night are in the same sky at the same time?  An eclipse.  They birth dragons.  Which can explain the Lyseni dragon origin story as told by Dany's handmaidens. 

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On 3/4/2018 at 0:01 PM, Megorova said:

Jon is going to return. Furthermore in a human form. He's a main character in four (maybe five) prophecies/visions:

  • three fires must you light . . . one for life and one for death and one to love
  • three mounts must you ride . . . one to bed and one to dread and one to love
  • three treasons will you know . . . once for blood and once for gold and once for love
  • From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies
  • A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness. . . . mother of dragons, bride of fire

Mount to ride is a lover, not a horse. One to bed - Daario Naharis, one to dread - Dany's second husband, one to love - Jon.

"One to bed" - do people "bed" with horses? (I mean NORMAL people.) No, they don't. Thus those mounts in the prophecy are men, not horses.

Blue flower on the wall is also Jon, and Dany will be his bride. Bride of fire, because Jon is Azor Ahai, champion of Lord of Light. And Dany can't marry, nor to have sex with a Ghost.

Also Jon is one of three lies: smoking tower - Tower of Joy; stone beast with wings, breathing fire - chimera, half-dragon half-direwolf, half-Targaryen half-Stark. And he's breathing shadow fire, because he is living in secret, in shadows, secret Targaryen/dragon.

Though treason for love may be not about Jon, it could be either Tyrion or Barristan, or someone else.

There was no mentioning of any dragons in legends about Azor Ahai, or in a prophecy about his return.

This is purely Melisandre's own opinion: "When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone." Birth of Azor Ahai amidst smoke and salt was also mentioned separately from return of dragons. So this part about dragons, is Melisandre's own addition.

"Benerro has sent forth the word from Volantis. Her coming is the fulfillment of an ancient prophecy. From smoke and salt was she born to make the world anew. She is Azor Ahai returned ... and her triumph over darkness will bring a summer that will never end ... death itself will bend its knee, and all those who die fighting in her cause shall be reborn"

Dany was born on a Dragonstone island, amidst salt water / sea. But there was no smoke. And during Drogo's funeral, there was smoke, but there was no salt. Dany wasn't even crying.

I think that this salt and smoke could be literal. Where will Brothers put Jon's body, if he is dead? It's unlikely that they will be ready to immediately prepare a funeral pyre for him. They will be busy dealing with revolt. Though they can't just leave Jon's body where it was, in case if he will turn into white walker. Thus they will put him somewhere. In ice cells there's already two dead bodies, and some prisoners, and during fight after Jon's death, there will be even more people held there. Thus they will put Jon's body into "basement". And what is kept there? -> Provision. Including salt, and meat that they smoke. So could be that Jon will be lying in a room where Brothers usually make cured meat, by salting it and smoking. So there will be salt and smoke there, and that's the place where Jon will become alive again. Probably brought back by Melisandre's kiss of fire.

Also Lightbringer is an actual sword. It was forged/made by Azor Ahai.

ADWD, Jon III: “I looked at that book Maester Aemon left me. The Jade Compendium. The pages that told of Azor Ahai. Lightbringer was his sword. Tempered with his wife’s blood if Votar can be believed. Thereafter Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. In battle the blade burned fiery hot. Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame.”

AA's Lightbringer wasn't a dragon, you can't thrust a dragon through someone's belly :rolleyes: thus it's a sword, not a dragon.

Those people were Targaryen Kings, doesn't actually matter from what time where they. What matters is that they are Dany's ancestors.

Did you missed part, where they cried as one?

"Ghosts lined the hallway, dressed in the faded raiment of kings. In their hands were swords of pale fire. They had hair of silver and hair of gold and hair of platinum white, and their eyes were opal and amethyst, tourmaline and jade. “Faster,” they cried, “faster, faster.” She raced, her feet melting the stone wherever they touched. “Faster!” the ghosts cried as one"

There was ONE person, that was all of those Kings:

AGOT - "the stars smiled down on them, stars in a daylight sky", "After that, for a long time, there was only the pain, the fire within her, and the whisperings of stars."

ADWD - "She was flying once again, spinning, laughing, dancing, as the stars wheeled around her and whispered secrets in her ear. “To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward, you must go back. To touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow.”

Quaithe?” Dany called. “Where are you, Quaithe?”

Then she saw. Her mask is made of starlight. “Remember who you are, Daenerys,” the stars whispered in a woman’s voice. “The dragons know. Do you?”"

Quaithe was helping Dany to deliver Rhaego. And she shares with Dany same ancestors. Those Kings were crying as one, because Quaithe combines in her their bloodline. She's Shiera Seastar, Dany's relative. Those were not previous incarnations of Azor Ahai's chearing Dany, that was Quaithe encouraging Dany while she was giving birth to Rhaego. Faster, faster, was actually Push, push.

When next book will come out, and if there will be Dany's POV, when she will meet Quaithe again, and it will be revealed that Quaithe is indeed Shiera, then you'll see that those Kings being past Azor Ahais is incorrect.

Lightbringer was able to do both - to cut thru darkness and thru flesh:

"Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. In battle the blade burned fiery hot. Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil."

You worked hard on your argument and I thank you for the effort.  This kind of effort is what make the forum a joy to visit.  I am convinced though by the OP's theory.   I do think Dany is the leading candidate for Azor Ahai.  I won't discount that it is possible there is more than one person to fulfill that role but Dany is the one that makes the most sense to me.  This is the order if I were to rank the candidates in order of the most probable:

  1. Dany
  2. Jon
  3. Gendry
  4. Stannis
  5. Samwell

 

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On 06/03/2018 at 8:09 PM, Megorova said:

Quaithe also warned Dany about fAegon:

"The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."   

Kraken is Euron. Dark flame is red priest Moqorro. Lion is Tyrion Lannister. Griffin is Jon Connington. The sun's son is Quentin Martell. Mummer's dragon is Young Griff, and the mummer is Varys. Perfumed seneschal is Illyrio.

This means that Tyrion is not Targaryen, and that Aegon isn't Dany's nephew. Thus the third dragonrider will be someone else, not fAegon.

    I understood the reason why you do not believe Aegon to be a real Targaryen. However, Qualthe does not say it is a fake dragon, but a mummer’s one. As you said yourself, the mummer is Varys and she should be wary of him. Aegon is Varys dragon not necessary because he is a fake, but because he is under his control and guidance. Qualthe does not say beware of the mummer’s dragon which would be the natural thing to say if he was a fake or was to betray her, but he says beware about the mummer, the perfumed seneschal, which is undoubtedly Varys.

   Aegon might be a real dragon but Varys will betray her. Probably he wants them married and after all is settled and Westeros conquered to kill her and allow Aegon to rule alone and therefore being directly under his influence. Qualthe clearly points Varys as the one she should be wary of. Daemerys should not trust Aegon because is under Varys' control.

   I, therefore, believe Aegon is one of the heads and not a fake.

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On 2/27/2018 at 10:10 PM, Rosetta Stone said:

How interesting.  The biggest clue for Dany being AA is the hatching of the dragon eggs.  She literally woke dragons from stone.  Which was foretold in the prophecy. 

That is correct.  She was reborn right about the time the red comet was in the sky. 

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On 08.03.2018 at 9:36 AM, HallowedMarcus said:

However, Qualthe does not say it is a fake dragon, but a mummer’s one. As you said yourself, the mummer is Varys and she should be wary of him. Aegon is Varys dragon not necessary because he is a fake, but because he is under his control and guidance.

That is not the point - whose dragon is he. The point is, is that he is a lie to slay.

The prophecy of the Undying goes like this - mummer's dragon is a second lie, that Dany will slay. First lie to slay is that Stannis is Azor Ahai; second is that Young Griff is Aegon Targaryen, son of crown prince Rhaegar, and his wife Elia Martell; and third lie is that Jon is a bastard of Eddard Stark.

To slay a lie doesn't mean, that Dany will actually kill all three of those people - Stannis, fAegon, Jon. It only means, that she will reveal/find out the truth about them. She will prove that Stannis is not Azor Ahai, that fAegon is not son of Rhaegar, and that Jon is not Ned's son.

Varys is a mummer. fAegon is his pet project. Thus fAegon is mummer's dragon. They (Varys and fAegon) claim that he is Rhaegar's son. Dany will find out that this claim is false (probably thru her dragons), and thus she will unmask fAegon, or slay a lie about him.

Furthermore, those three visions about lies, and about whom they are (King with a sword of light, that has no shadow; mummer's dragon; winged stone beast from the smoking tower), has one thing in common. Behind all three of those "fakers", there was an orchestrator, that created that lie. And even a fake himself, will become a victim of that lie. A lie that Stannis is Azor Ahai, was created by Melisandre. A lie that fAegon is son of Rhaegar, was created by Varys. A lie that Jon is the Bastard of Winterfell, was created by Ned. Stannis will die in a battle for Winterfell, because Melisandre convinced him that he is chosen, guided, and protected by R'hllor. fAegon will probably be killed by Dany's dragons, because Varys made him think, that he is a Targaryen prince, and thus he will be able to claim those dragons. But Jon's case is different, because unlike two other orchestrators, Ned didn't created Jon's cover story, to use him in some way, he did it only to protect Jon. Thus out of three lies, this lie is the only one, that was created for the greater good.      

Also could be that this is another hint from GRRM - first two orchestrators are from Essos (Melisandre and Varys), and third is from The North. Thus out of three heads of the dragon, two will be from Essos (Dany and Rhaego), and third will be from The North (Jon Snow).

On 08.03.2018 at 9:36 AM, HallowedMarcus said:

I understood the reason why you do not believe Aegon to be a real Targaryen.

That prophecy isn't the only reason. There's also other small details.

1. The story of how exactly fAegon was supposedly saved by Varys during the Sack of KL.

2. And also similarities between Jon Snow and Rhaegar, and differences between fAegon and Rhaegar.

1. That story is :bs: Supposedly Varys took real Aegon from his mother, and Elia willingly gave him to that Spider. WHY WOULD SHE? And then Varys gave her a baby boy, that he bought in KL for a bottle of wine. Just imagine how exactly was all this happening.

Scenario 1: Varys bought the baby, and brought it to Elia, prior arrival of Tywin's troops to KL.

  • At that time, situation was like this: Rhaegar is dead; Aerys is keeping Elia and her children as hostages; Varys is Aerys' advisor; Tywin Lannister for the duration of Rebellion, was staying away from it, remaining in Casterly Rock; his arrival to KL was unexpected, no one knew that he was going to come to KL, a bit later. So Varys approached Elia and offered her to give Aegon to him, and to take instead of him some peasant boy, and to pretend that the boy is her real son. What for? In this scenario, they are still unaware about Tywin's upcoming arrival. So what could be the reason for Varys, to propose to Elia, to take that fake baby? Could it be that he convinced her, that she should get little Aegon out of KL, and that under Varys' care, the boy will be safer, than at home with his mother? This is very unlikely. For two reasons - 1. if Elia agreed to save Aegon by this method, then why haven't she done the same for her daughter Rhaenys? Would a mother save only one of her children, instead of saving both? Of course, she wouldn't. And 2. if Elia did agreed to it, and she was Ok with Aegon going away from KL, then why was he taken to Essos, instead of Dorne and his Martell uncles? So this scenario doesn't make any sense.

Scenario 2: Varys bought the baby, and brought it to Elia, when Tywin's troops arrived to KL, and were already sacking the city.

  • It is known that when Tywin and his troops arrived to KL, Varys was with King Aerys, and was advising him not to open the gates. But Aerys did the opposite. When Varys heard what Aerys ordered to do, he, predicting what could happen, went outside of Red Keep, to the streets of KL, and by pure luck found there a man, that was willing to sell his infant son, for a bottle of Arbor Gold wine. And by pure luck, Varys had with him a bottle of exactly that wine, and gave it in exchange for the boy. Prior Tywin's soldiers progressed from the city's gates to walls of Red Keep, Varys went outside (probably thru secret tunnels), found the seller, bought the baby, went back to Red Keep, convinced histerical Elia (that already heard about what was happening outside) to give away her baby, brought the baby out of Red Keep, and returned back just in time to greet Lord Tywin. This scenario is even more ridiculous than the first.

So no, this story, about saving of little Aegon, that was told to Tyrion, is a lie. That's why Tyrion made fun of fAegon. Because, unlike fAegon, Tyrion knows Varys and Red Keep, and what was happening, so to trick him with this fairy tail, isn't as easy as to trick fAegon, whom is interested into believeing into this story, because it makes him a prince, and an heir of Iron Throne.

2. Jon's personality is similar to Rhaegar's. Rhaegar was melancholic, Jon is brooding. Both of them are excellent warriors, and also were very good at all other studies. Both of them didn't visited brothels. Both of them rejected offer to usurp power in their families (when certain people wanted Rhaegar to overthrow his father, and become King in his place; and when Stannis offered to Jon to become Lord of Winterfell, even though there still was Sansa, and Rickon, and Arya). Etc.

Aside from looks, fAegon has nothing in common with Rhaegar. Rhaegar was smart, and loved to read books, and to study. He prefered this, instead of swordfighting. In this sense fAegon is the opposite. Also that scene between JonCon and Rhaegar, and years later on the very same place, between JonCon and fAegon. While Rhaegar was praising beauty of surrounding land, fAegon noticed and commented only the castle. So Rhaegar loved nature and its beauty, while fAegon is a mercantile materialist. Etc.

On 08.03.2018 at 9:36 AM, HallowedMarcus said:

but he says beware about the mummer, the perfumed seneschal, which is undoubtedly Varys.

That's not what she said. She said beware of the perfumed seneschal. Don't add them together. She said only about seneschal, while mummer's dragon was with the rest of those, to whom Dany shouldn't trust.

Varys is not seneschal. The meaning of that word is -

the steward or major-domo of a medieval great house.
Originally purely a household officer, the task of the steward, or seneschal, was to place dishes on the royal table, but like many comparable offices it gathered other duties and rose in prestige.

Varys, from the very beginning of his serving at Targaryen court, was King's advisor, and Master of whispers. He didn't rose to that position, from some smaller post. That is Illyrio's story, first he served to Varys, but then became his closest friend, and then magister of a city, and a very reach and influential person. So he is the perfumed seneschal, while Varys is a mummer, not a mummer and seneschal both.

Edited by Megorova

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On 2/28/2018 at 5:53 PM, Annalee said:

That Daenerys is Azor Ahai, I agree.  She is Azor Ahai.

I don't agree that the long night and the white walkers can be defeated.  Nature always wins versus man in George Martin's stories.  The fungus won the battle versus the men of greywater station.  The mud pots were winning versus man.  The long night will last until the climate shifts again.  A light stick is not going to change that.  The people will have to migrate out of Westeros to survive.  Dany is not coming to Westeros.  Westeros is coming to Dany.  Isn't it convenient to have empty cities like Vaes Toloro and Asshai?  Empty cities just waiting to be repopulated.  Dany will build her own empire in Essos and the people coming from Westeros will be part of that empire.

:o

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On 3/4/2018 at 9:01 AM, Megorova said:

Provision. Including salt, and meat that they smoke. So could be that Jon will be lying in a room where Brothers usually make cured meat, by salting it and smoking.

I like it. Maybe "Azor Ahai" is really just the Valyrian word for "bacon". The smell of cooking bacon is well known to be a very pleasant way to wake up, so why couldn't it wake dragons from stone? I think we've solved it, boys!

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7 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

I like it. Maybe "Azor Ahai" is really just the Valyrian word for "bacon". The smell of cooking bacon is well known to be a very pleasant way to wake up, so why couldn't it wake dragons from stone? I think we've solved it, boys!

:lmao:

But I was serious about that. -_- It was GRRM, not me, who said that Azor Ahai will be born amidst salt and smoke.

Melisandre said to Davos, that if they will give her Edric Storm (because the boy has King's blood, or rather a bit of Targaryen blood), then she will be able to wake the dragon from stone.

And now we have Jon, Melisandre, and Shireen. So I think that Melisandre will sacrifice Shireen to revive Jon.

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22 hours ago, Megorova said:

Scenario 1: Varys bought the baby, and brought it to Elia, prior arrival of Tywin's troops to KL.

  • At that time, situation was like this: Rhaegar is dead; Aerys is keeping Elia and her children as hostages; Varys is Aerys' advisor; Tywin Lannister for the duration of Rebellion, was staying away from it, remaining in Casterly Rock; his arrival to KL was unexpected, no one knew that he was going to come to KL
1

 

22 hours ago, Megorova said:

Scenario 2: Varys bought the baby, and brought it to Elia, when Tywin's troops arrived to KL, and were already sacking the city.

   As I said before you are probably right but I was and I am still not that certain. You wrote a lot of things with a logic deep understanding of the books and prophecies and came to logical conclusions which I do agree upon. Thanks for that. I am glad that you exposed and defended your points one by one. I have my knowledge of the prophecies increased because of that. 

   That said there is one flaw in your way of thinking that Aegon is fAegon. The Scenarios. Scenario 2 is foolish and absurd and obviously did not happen as you have said yourself and anyone who disagrees with that must be jesting. But on Scenario 1 you got a personal point of view and made it a general unquestionable point and that wrong. You wrote 

Quote

his arrival to KL was unexpected, NO ONE knew that he was going to come to KL

    

     You are talking about Varys here. Who knew Tyrion every move; who knew about the Catelyn arrival and about the dagger. Who knew what Daenerys Targaryen was doing in Essos being so far away from her. For me to most logical thing is that he knew about the Warden of the West coming to King's Landing before his arrival. You believe that he did not know. You might be right. But you also might be wrong and considering the net of spies he had and considering there was an open rebellion against the Iron Throne I believe that Varys would be using, even more, his spies then before. It was a survival situation. So I do believe that Varys indeed knew about it.

    Of course, I might be wrong. However, considering who Varys is, his knowledge of Westeros and his big net of spies I believe the logic is to consider more probable that the eunuch knew about Tywin Lannister coming to Kings' Landing with his army and if so maybe the same day he left Casterly Rock.

Edited by HallowedMarcus

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Although it is commonly interpreted that Varys is the perfumed seneschal, there is nothing about Varys that fits that word. If we use the French definition of the word, magister, it could be Illyrio. Using the English definition of the word, steward, it could be Reznak or perhaps a Tyrell (since the were originally stewards). However, I don't see how the word can be stretched to include Varys.

23 hours ago, Megorova said:

Scenario 1: Varys bought the baby, and brought it to Elia, prior arrival of Tywin's troops to KL.

  • At that time, situation was like this: Rhaegar is dead; Aerys is keeping Elia and her children as hostages; Varys is Aerys' advisor; Tywin Lannister for the duration of Rebellion, was staying away from it, remaining in Casterly Rock; his arrival to KL was unexpected, no one knew that he was going to come to KL, a bit later. So Varys approached Elia and offered her to give Aegon to him, and to take instead of him some peasant boy, and to pretend that the boy is her real son. What for? In this scenario, they are still unaware about Tywin's upcoming arrival. So what could be the reason for Varys, to propose to Elia, to take that fake baby? Could it be that he convinced her, that she should get little Aegon out of KL, and that under Varys' care, the boy will be safer, than at home with his mother? This is very unlikely. For two reasons - 1. if Elia agreed to save Aegon by this method, then why haven't she done the same for her daughter Rhaenys? Would a mother save only one of her children, instead of saving both? Of course, she wouldn't. And 2. if Elia did agreed to it, and she was Ok with Aegon going away from KL, then why was he taken to Essos, instead of Dorne and his Martell uncles? So this scenario doesn't make any sense.

Scenario 2: Varys bought the baby, and brought it to Elia, when Tywin's troops arrived to KL, and were already sacking the city.

  • It is known that when Tywin and his troops arrived to KL, Varys was with King Aerys, and was advising him not to open the gates. But Aerys did the opposite. When Varys heard what Aerys ordered to do, he, predicting what could happen, went outside of Red Keep, to the streets of KL, and by pure luck found there a man, that was willing to sell his infant son, for a bottle of Arbor Gold wine. And by pure luck, Varys had with him a bottle of exactly that wine, and gave it in exchange for the boy. Prior Tywin's soldiers progressed from the city's gates to walls of Red Keep, Varys went outside (probably thru secret tunnels), found the seller, bought the baby, went back to Red Keep, convinced histerical Elia (that already heard about what was happening outside) to give away her baby, brought the baby out of Red Keep, and returned back just in time to greet Lord Tywin. This scenario is even more ridiculous than the first.

Scenario 3:  The baby switch occurred before Aegon was ever brought to Kingslanding.

Many people don't realize how few people there are in the story that could identify the baby Aegon, smashed face or no. It is entirely possible that Varys had obtained the double for Aegon before Elia and the children left Dragonstone at Aerys' order. If that is the case, then Elia could have spirited away her child that no one at court had seen. She was forced to take Rhaenys since she had been presented at court and a substitute would be noticed. In other words, Elia never took Aegon to court at all. She sent him somewhere else (Ashara).

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