Strange Thing About the Twins

[Corvo the Crow]

4 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Other than WF (because of the curtain walls), the Eryie, CR, the Twins are probably the most expensive castle(s) in Westeros, and CR literally paid for itself. The Twins isn't just one castle; it's two. One would be the size of any other major lord's castle. Then you have the wide bridge that is going to span hundreds of yards across a deep river with a strong current. Then add the Water Tower, which is big enough to hold honored guest quarters. 

Whether or not they poured more actual physical currency into their seat is up for debate. Whether or not they put more resources into it is not. Their projects dwarf anything built in the last 600 years, short of the complete establishment of KL.

Eyrie is only expensive because of the materials and hardness of building it. It is a rather small castle, with a garrison of 20 soldiers and room for 500.

Winterfell  is able to hold 6 thousand or so even after it's mostly ruins.

Casterly Rock is mostly within the rocks.

Can't find any size information on twins, they are formidable, yes, but two castles on either bank with moats should be formidable even if they are small.

 

 

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The Twins has made them wealthy and extra means of income ontop of the lands they have which borders two of the three forks of the Trident, an income in Winter time when most Riverlords are digging into their savings, but their status as the Riverlands most powerful vassal House likely comes down to the huge amount of lands they rule. 

Map of the Riverlands

Now we know from Robb's travels to the Twins and from Chett's arrest that villages on the Blue Fork are under the jurisdiction from the Freys and that the Freys are the most furthest Northern Riverlords. That is a substantial amount of land and owning such fertile land is going to make the powerful regardless of their incomes from the Bridge. 

It is also likely that the the Targaryens bringing peace has meant less wars between the various realms, and seen a population boom in places such as the  Frey lands which would have been vulnerable to Southern armies invading the North, Northern armies invading the South, the Ironborn invading the Riverlands and various raids from the pirates of the Three Sisters. 

If you are a merhcant from the Westerlands or Southern Riverlands heading North or a Northern merchant heading to the Southern Riverlands or the Westerland than it is going to be far easier paying a toll and travelling through the Frey lands than taking a couple of hundred miles detour. 

Seagard would be a better option if it was not for the Ironborn. 

Winter trade while everyone else is eating their stores, yeah, that makes sense. But if the bulk of Frey wealth comes from their lands, why does everyone say it is the bridge that makes them so wealthy and powerful? Why is that their sigil instead of some sort of farming symbol?

If I were a northern merchant heading south, I think I would just keep going south on the Kingsroad where there are plenty of wealthy houses and towns, rather than cut over to the Twins, pay the toll, and ply that relatively small part of the Riverlands, which isn't likely to be as wealthy as the region along the Kingsroad. And the same going north: if I came from the Westerlands or southern RR, I'd just follow the River Road or the Kingsroad and then head either north or south -- there doesn't seem to be any compelling reason to get to that part of the Riverlands to make it worth the trouble.

The only possibility I can see is wines from the Arbor. Rather than sail around Dorne and then up the Narrow Sea to White Harbor, put in at Seaguard, pay the toll and head straight up the Kingsroad. But again, this could be avoided if, say, the Dustins were to bridge the Fever River 

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

They are the only reliable crossing for many leagues in each direction. That is how. Nothing more, nothing less 

But the question is, why bother to cross at all? If you're a merchant already on the Kingsroad, where we are told there are ample towns, villages, keeps and castles, why bother to cross into that part of the Riverlands? Are the towns, villages, keeps and castles over there any more lucrative than the ones where you are? If you are already in that part of the Riverlands, why not just take your goods to Seaguard and sell them there?

How did the Freys gain so much wealth and power simply by providing easy access to a relatively backwater area of the realm?

[John Suburbs]

5 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

The Freys built a bridge that people have to pay to use.  The bridge is in a strategically important area of commerce.  Going around the bridge is not easy and the lack of modern methods to preserve food means time is important because many trade goods are perishable.  So yeah, ofcourse the bridge is a gold mine.  House Frey is one of the richest families in Westeros because of the bridge, their fertile lands, and good business skills from Lord Walder.  

Thanks, widow, this gets to the heart of it. Is the location of the Twins all that strategically important, either militarily or commerce-wise? If you are a merchant on the eastern side of the GF, what would be so compelling on the western side to warrant paying a toll to cross? Are the houses wealthier over there? The towns bigger? If you are already on the western side, does it make more sense to cross and trade on the eastern side, or just float your wares downriver to Saltpans, or head north to Seaguard?

So I am sure there is quite a bit of traffic going back and forth on any given day, but is this really lucrative enough to produce the kind of wealth that the Freys are said to have?

Military-wise, it's the same problem: every once in a blue moon a war breaks out, particularly once the dragons took over, and then the tactical/alliance situation has to line up perfectly -- basically the north allying with the riverlands and in need of a quick route to Riverrun -- in order to capitalize.

To me, it just doesn't seem like there is enough desperate need to cross at this point for the Freys to make such a killing on tolls. The main route from north to south bypasses them entirely, so all they have is access to a relatively small area of the riverlands. No doubt profitable, but enough to make them just shy of a great house?

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

eh? Come on, you are grasping at straws now. 

"It gave him an uneasy feeling. Braavosi coin would allow the Night's Watch to buy food from the south when their own stores ran short, food enough to see them through the winter, however long it might prove to be."

Which south do you think Jon is talking about in this quote from ADWD? The North with Winterfell recently destroyed, Hornwood ravaged, the Botons enemies of Robb or the actual South such as the Reach or Vale with their excess of food. 

And can you find any other references of Brothers of the Nights Watch referring to the North as the south? https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q=south&povs[]=Samwell&povs[]=Jon

 

It is also easier to source food from people who have a surplus of food. 

And who claims the Watch does not have existing relationships with the Lords in the South?

 

But if you are talking about the Reach and the Vale, why would traders from either of those realms need to cross at the Twins to get to the Wall? It would be idiotic from the Vale, since they have a straight shot up the KR or directly across the Bite to White Harbor, while traders from the Reach would most likely take the Rose Road to KL and then straight up the KR rather than overland through the Riverlands, crossing who knows how many rivers, including the Red Fork, Blue Fork and possible the Mander and/or the Blackwater.

[John Suburbs]

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ok. If one assumes that medieval travellers on 1000 mile overland journeys are a frequent occurrence. I'm not shooting down your suggestion, as it is a valid one. I personally just don't see it. I imagine that 90% of people never leave their home village in their lives, and 99% never leave their home kingdom.

Anyway, maybe that is the answer. My view is that the vast bulk of their toll income is made from Riverlanders, travelling from one "county" to the next.

The one possible long-range, lucrative route through the Twins might be from the Arbor to the north. Sure, they could ship wines around Dorne and up the Narrow Sea to White Harbor, but that would still be a hike to the western portion of the North. But a quick trip to Seaguard, cross at the Twins and north on the KR would then provide pretty good access to Dustins, Flints, Ryswells, Tallharts...

And it's wine, so it has a long shelf life.

Sure, the Ironmen could still be a problem, but it might work if the losses aren't too great.

The only question is, what would the north have that the Arbor doesn't? Furs, perhaps? Maybe a fresh supply of oak for their aging barrels?

[Rufus Snow]

It might be a small point, but no-one has mentioned that there could well be other travellers besides merchants and armies, though surely these two would be the most lucrative. Knowing Walder he'd insist on charging 'per head' for any corpses the Silent Sisters might be taking home from here to there or wherever, for instance...

The strategic value of the Twins is precisely that it is the only crossing on the Green Fork. The next crossing going south is at the Ruby Ford, and going north you'll get lost or drowned in the bogs and marshes of the Neck. Whetever reason someone has for travelling, going all the way to the Ruby Ford is one heck of a diversion - hundreds of leagues.

Another blind spot that people seem to have, is assuming that a trader taking goods from say the Vale or the North to the northern Riverlands is necessarily from the Vale or the North. What is there to say traders FROM the RL haven't been out with some goods, and then come back with others? It doesn't really matter where a merchant is from - just ask any haulier how economically viable an empty trailer is - goods will pass both ways to make it pay, and some will be returning home to somewhere close by the western bank of the Green Fork - enough to make the toll worthhwile for them and for the Freys.

[Dorian Martell's son]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But the question is, why bother to cross at all? If you're a merchant already on the Kingsroad, where we are told there are ample towns, villages, keeps and castles, why bother to cross into that part of the Riverlands? Are the towns, villages, keeps and castles over there any more lucrative than the ones where you are? If you are already in that part of the Riverlands, why not just take your goods to Seaguard and sell them there?

Markets are rarely stable and if you get word that Joe Bob sworn to house mallister has a bumper crop of turnips already taken to market, you would not get much for it, but then you learn that an ingredient in the local favorite stew on sisterton is turnips, rather than chartering a boat to round the continent to the other side, you use the crossing at the twins to shorten your journey and take the crop to the vale.
Or, if your goods are fabric, say, wool, and you live just north of the twins, and you want to sell to in the markets of Kings Landing because the prices are the best, moving south through hag's mire is time consuming, dangerous for pack animals and very time consuming, but crossing at the  Twins puts you right on the king's road, making your journey south faster. 
 There are whole swaths of examples and hypotheticals that exist in the real world that make a reliable crossing of a major river an economic necessity, and that will make those who control the crossing rich. Seaguard is not a major city. Access to major cities is important and people are willing to pay for it 

[Yukle]

On 3/6/2018 at 9:05 AM, John Suburbs said:

Looking at the map, it really doesn't seem all that strategic to me. We're told that House Frey has grown into one of the most powerful Tully bannermen by exacting tolls across the river, But aside from a relatively unique circumstance like the King of the North needed to cross in order to launch a sneak attack at Riverrun, I don't see why many people would feel the need to cross there.

This is all true.

I think it's just a sign of how hard it is to make geographic worlds seem realistic when standing up to close scrutiny. There are many issues with Westeros - there are far too few cities, for instance, to support the economy and military that is described. Only five cities, with one of those at best reaching 500,000; even for feudal England, Japan and China there isn't enough urbanisation.

This applies to the Twins, it's not only the location but the lack of any urbanisation around it.

The nine free cities of Essos are also strange. Nine is closer to realistic, but there should also be much more urbanisation in Essos to support the trade that is described. Trade doesn't just appear from the farms to the major ports; there are many steps along the way that are needed. All around the world, great cities have risen that literally produce next to nothing on their own, but serve as important trade corridors.

In this sense, the Twins would only work if there was a town surrounding them. A town can also include inns, smiths, merchants, food stockpiles, communication methods and so on - reasons to justify choosing that particular spot of the river to cross. The only way that the Twins generate wealth (because tolls wouldn't be frequent enough to hoard wealth from them, and if they were too expensive, a rival would just build a cheaper option) is if there was a town surrounding them, whose commerce could be taxed.

In real life, that's how feudal lords made their money: those lucky enough to have resources sold them, and everyone else funneled trade through their cities, and taxed the output once the goods hit the road.

[direpupy]

16 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

The full quote is in my first response to Free Northman in this thread

"We should butcher all but a few breeding pairs. It's past time. In winters past, food could be brought up the kingsroad from the south, but with the war ...

Do you really think that implies the food was coming from the Last Heath or Winterfell? That Bowen would refer to those places as the South?

Honestly yes i would.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well, White Harbor, Barrowton, Winterfell and yes, even the Last hearth are certainly not NORTH of Castle Black. So it would indeed be food from the south.

But I think the answer is more nuanced than that. I don't think he is specifically referring to Northern castles only. I think the reference to where food is sourced from, conveys that it is from the south in general, which could include any castle, whether it be Oldtown, Winterfell, Riverun, Barrowton or whatever.

But it is a quick offhand statement. And it is not unreasonable to suggest that his reference to the Kingsroad indicates how the food gets to Castle Black. It is not a detailed treatise on the subject. So where the food actually entered the Kingsroad is open to interpretation.

And my interpretation is that the bulk of it came via White Harbor, up the White Knife and then onto the Kingsroad in the Winterfell region or thereabouts. Implying that Eastwatch by the Sea may not always be accessible for shipping in the depths of Winter.

So yes, some of the food is from South of the Neck. And yes, it is brought to Castle Black via the Kingsroad. But that doesn't mean it travels along the Kingsroad from its origin point. No, it follows the most efficient way to get there. Which is via White Harbor and then onto the Kingsroad.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Yukle said:

This is all true.

I think it's just a sign of how hard it is to make geographic worlds seem realistic when standing up to close scrutiny. There are many issues with Westeros - there are far too few cities, for instance, to support the economy and military that is described. Only five cities, with one of those at best reaching 500,000; even for feudal England, Japan and China there isn't enough urbanisation.

This applies to the Twins, it's not only the location but the lack of any urbanisation around it.

The nine free cities of Essos are also strange. Nine is closer to realistic, but there should also be much more urbanisation in Essos to support the trade that is described. Trade doesn't just appear from the farms to the major ports; there are many steps along the way that are needed. All around the world, great cities have risen that literally produce next to nothing on their own, but serve as important trade corridors.

In this sense, the Twins would only work if there was a town surrounding them. A town can also include inns, smiths, merchants, food stockpiles, communication methods and so on - reasons to justify choosing that particular spot of the river to cross. The only way that the Twins generate wealth (because tolls wouldn't be frequent enough to hoard wealth from them, and if they were too expensive, a rival would just build a cheaper option) is if there was a town surrounding them, whose commerce could be taxed.

In real life, that's how feudal lords made their money: those lucky enough to have resources sold them, and everyone else funneled trade through their cities, and taxed the output once the goods hit the road.

Yup. It would seem to me that the only way the Freys could get truly rich off tolls is if they held a crucial crossing on the main trade route, which would be the Kingsroad. As it stands, they hold a crucial crossing for a relative trickle of the main flow of goods.

They would have been better off building their castle at the western-most side of the Bite, where they would not only have a seaport for trade from Essos, but a chokehold on the Kingsroad right where it hits the causeway through the marshes.

[Universal Sword Donor]

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Yup. It would seem to me that the only way the Freys could get truly rich off tolls is if they held a crucial crossing on the main trade route, which would be the Kingsroad. As it stands, they hold a crucial crossing for a relative trickle of the main flow of goods.

They would have been better off building their castle at the western-most side of the Bite, where they would not only have a seaport for trade from Essos, but a chokehold on the Kingsroad right where it hits the causeway through the marshes.

They also probably don't have rights to those lands. But it probably just would have been easier if he had made the Freys slightly younger (and land granted by the Targs), the green fork split the kingsroad and let the Freys collect tolls from traders on behalf of the Targs and send the lions share to the IT.

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

They also probably don't have rights to those lands. But it probably just would have been easier if he had made the Freys slightly younger (and land granted by the Targs), the green fork split the kingsroad and let the Freys collect tolls from traders on behalf of the Targs and send the lions share to the IT.

My view is that the lands on either side of the Twins are quite populous. Say we are talking 20,000 square miles (not just the Frey lands, but the lands of neighbouring lords too). At 20 people per square mile, that's 400,000 people. If just 1% of them are regular travellers from one side of the area to the other, and have to cross at the Twins say four times a year (two return journeys), that's 16,000 crossings that the Freys can earn revenue from. Now, we don't know what the toll is, but even at an average of say 10 silvers per crossing (compared to the cost of doing a detour of a couple of hundred miles), that's 160,000 silvers a year they can earn from the bridge.

That's 160,000 silver stags another lord would not be earning, and it is on top of the normal income they earn from their extensive lands. Over 600 years, that's quite a lot of silvers they could have collected there. Certainly more than the upkeep of the bridge would require.

And that excludes the much less frequent long distance travellers that would make use of the bridge from time to time. But as I said, I suspect there are not very many of them. I don't see long distance overland trade as a major factor in Westeros. Transport by river would be the norm. And I don't know if we are told whether the Freys can intercept river trade past the Twins as well. I would not think so, as that would be something the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands would probably have a problem with. They aren't providing the service that allows a crossing in that case. Instead, they are blocking people from using the normal flow of the river. Not something their overlord would appreciate, I reckon.

So land travel only is their target then, I would estimate.

[John Suburbs]

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

My view is that the lands on either side of the Twins are quite populous. Say we are talking 20,000 square miles (not just the Frey lands, but the lands of neighbouring lords too). At 20 people per square mile, that's 400,000 people. If just 1% of them are regular travellers from one side of the area to the other, and have to cross at the Twins say four times a year (two return journeys), that's 16,000 crossings that the Freys can earn revenue from. Now, we don't know what the toll is, but even at an average of say 10 silvers per crossing (compared to the cost of doing a detour of a couple of hundred miles), that's 160,000 silvers a year they can earn from the bridge.

That's 160,000 silver stags another lord would not be earning, and it is on top of the normal income they earn from their extensive lands. Over 600 years, that's quite a lot of silvers they could have collected there. Certainly more than the upkeep of the bridge would require.

And that excludes the much less frequent long distance travellers that would make use of the bridge from time to time. But as I said, I suspect there are not very many of them. I don't see long distance overland trade as a major factor in Westeros. Transport by river would be the norm. And I don't know if we are told whether the Freys can intercept river trade past the Twins as well. I would not think so, as that would be something the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands would probably have a problem with. They aren't providing the service that allows a crossing in that case. Instead, they are blocking people from using the normal flow of the river. Not something their overlord would appreciate, I reckon.

So land travel only is their target then, I would estimate.

I'm thinking that most tolls collected from the local traffic come in the form of goods, not coin. 10 silvers is a staggering sum for your average crofter or swineherd.

This doesn't mean it cannot add to the Frey's wealth, but it would be just a fraction of what they would be getting if they held a key point in the main trade route through the area, namely the Kingsroad. It would be like Delaware (those crooks) not having tolls on the I-95/295 corridor but making a killing off of the Rte 1 bypass to Bayview.

So, yes, tolls are only really useful at accumulating wealth if they take in money from other areas rather than simply redistributing it within your own jurisdiction. And the only long-range trade I can see would be wine from the Arbor coming up through Seaguard in exchange for timber from the north to make fresh wine casks. But would this be enough to enhance Frey wealth to near-great house status? I guess it must be.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm thinking that most tolls collected from the local traffic come in the form of goods, not coin. 10 silvers is a staggering sum for your average crofter or swineherd.

This doesn't mean it cannot add to the Frey's wealth, but it would be just a fraction of what they would be getting if they held a key point in the main trade route through the area, namely the Kingsroad. It would be like Delaware (those crooks) not having tolls on the I-95/295 corridor but making a killing off of the Rte 1 bypass to Bayview.

So, yes, tolls are only really useful at accumulating wealth if they take in money from other areas rather than simply redistributing it within your own jurisdiction. And the only long-range trade I can see would be wine from the Arbor coming up through Seaguard in exchange for timber from the north to make fresh wine casks. But would this be enough to enhance Frey wealth to near-great house status? I guess it must be.

Yeah, I pulled the 10 silvers figure out of my ass. As I said, we haven't been told what the toll is, whether it is charged per person, per horse, per wagon or differentiated based on the load you are carrying. So maybe it is 1 silver rather, for a swineherd, we don't really know.

I have an issue with the long range trade idea, however. I don't clearly understand your proposal there. Are you saying the Redwynne's from the Arbor are trading with the North to get lumber? and that this trade goes overland through the Twins?  If so, I would say there is little chance of that being the case. No chance, in fact.

Instead, wine would be loaded onto lord Redwynne's 1000 trading galleys, and shipped to merchants in various ports across the continent and the world. And it would be sold for gold. Not traded for lumber.

As for lumber, again, it would not be transported by wagon It would be floated down river from where it is chopped down, processed and loaded on a ship in a port city to be transported to its destination. Such as Braavos, from White Harbor.

I don't see such trade going through the Twins at all.

[John Suburbs]

Lol, I guess amidst all my talk about the kingsroad I should note that the Twins predate it by roughly 400 years, so mayhaps at the time their bridge was considered a strategic trade/military route and would have produced a substantial income. But those days are long-gone. So perhaps the notion of vast Frey wealth from their tolls is a chimera, like Dorne's 50k spears or Casterly Rock's gold? Maybe they are not quite so wealthy as they are perceived to be, which would account for the rather dismal appointments within the castle and Lord Walder's meager fair at the Red Wedding? And it would also explain why Walder made Robb pay such a high price to cross, since this would have been the first time in a long while that anyone had approached him in such desperate need, and it may be a good long time before it happens again.

[John Suburbs]

29 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yeah, I pulled the 10 silvers figure out of my ass. As I said, we haven't been told what the toll is, whether it is charged per person, per horse, per wagon or differentiated based on the load you are carrying. So maybe it is 1 silver rather, for a swineherd, we don't really know.

I have an issue with the long range trade idea, however. I don't clearly understand your proposal there. Are you saying the Redwynne's from the Arbor are trading with the North to get lumber? and that this trade goes overland through the Twins?  If so, I would say there is little chance of that being the case. No chance, in fact.

Instead, wine would be loaded onto lord Redwynne's 1000 trading galleys, and shipped to merchants in various ports across the continent and the world. And it would be sold for gold. Not traded for lumber.

As for lumber, again, it would not be transported by wagon It would be floated down river from where it is chopped down, processed and loaded on a ship in a port city to be transported to its destination. Such as Braavos, from White Harbor.

I don't see such trade going through the Twins at all.

My guess is that the tolls would be charged like a landing fee at any seaport: cargo is inspected and valued, and the lord takes his cut, either in goods or coin. Smaller shipments would be paid as a percentage of the cargo, since these people are likely to have little coin, while only the larger, long-range traders would have hard specie. Even 1 silver for a swineherd is a lot; you can get a nice room with a bed and not too many fleas for a few coppers.

From the map, it seems that the Redwynes can ship large quantities of wine by sea to virtually everywhere except the western side of the north, where there are no seaports to speak of. I can't say for sure what the drinking habits of the Flints, Dustins, Ryswells etc. are, but if they are like most lords they value wines from the Arbor. So rather than sailing around Dorne and up the Narrow Sea to White Harbor and then overland into this part of the north, it seems that it would make more sense to travel by sea to Seagard, cross at the Twins, up the KR and then west, no?

As for the lumber, the Redwynes are on an island and they have apparently used much of their own timber for ships. I don't know a lot about wine-making, but it seems that it requires a fairly steady supply of fresh wood for casks? The Wolfswood would be a source of good oak, so it would be quite a challenge to get it to White Harbor. I'm sure the Arbor could get wood from other regions as well, but since trade is usually circular this is the only commodity I can see making the reverse trip.

But I'll admit, it's sketchy. Seagard isn't exactly a trading port, more of a defensive town. Before the Targaryens, trade through Ironman's Bay would be risky. But if not wine from the Arbor, I can't see anything of value crossing at the Twins, so I fall back to the conclusion in my last post: the Frey wealth from their bridge may have been sizable back in the day, but is probably a mirage now.

[Bernie Mac]

14 hours ago, direpupy said:

Honestly yes i would.

And when Jon talks about the Braavos lending money to the Watch in ADWD you also presume that Jon, when he mentions the south, is again referring to the likes of the Last Heath? 

"It gave him an uneasy feeling. Braavosi coin would allow the Night's Watch to buy food from the south when their own stores ran short, food enough to see them through the winter, however long it might prove to be." 

That both these quotes are more likely to refer to the north than the south? 

 

On 06/03/2018 at 8:38 PM, John Suburbs said:

But if you are talking about the Reach and the Vale, why would traders from either of those realms need to cross at the Twins to get to the Wall?

Two different conversations. Bowen is talking about buying food this winter, the Riverlands is unlikely to have any excess food. This point had nothing to do with the Twins. 

Bowen mentions previous winters it coming from up the kingsroad and in previous winters the fertile Riverlands would not have been the warzone it is right now. 

 

On 06/03/2018 at 7:51 PM, John Suburbs said:

Winter trade while everyone else is eating their stores, yeah, that makes sense. But if the bulk of Frey wealth comes from their lands, why does everyone say it is the bridge that makes them so wealthy and powerful?

It gives them wealth in times when every other lord is losing wealth. And it is pretty much a trade, the nobility look down on merchants and traders. This is the reason why it is disrepected. 

On 06/03/2018 at 7:51 PM, John Suburbs said:

Why is that their sigil instead of some sort of farming symbol?

eh? You could say the same for the majority of the Houses in Westeros. Why is the Lannister's sigil a Lion and not some kind of mining symbol? 

On 06/03/2018 at 7:51 PM, John Suburbs said:

If I were a northern merchant heading south, I think I would just keep going south on the Kingsroad where there are plenty of wealthy houses and towns, rather than cut over to the Twins, pay the toll, and ply that relatively small part of the Riverlands, which isn't likely to be as wealthy as the region along the Kingsroad.

It is likely to be more wealthy. The Tully's, a rich House in their own right, the Blackwoods, Bracken's, Piper's lands are all easier to access from the Twin's crossing than they would be taking the long way round, as is the River road that leads directly to the rich and wealthy Westerlands. 

Obviously some merchants and tradesmen would think like you, no one is claiming that 100% of the merchants use that option but enough have done over the centuries for the Frey's to have made an enviable profit from it. 

On 06/03/2018 at 7:51 PM, John Suburbs said:

 

And the same going north: if I came from the Westerlands or southern RR, I'd just follow the River Road or the Kingsroad and then head either north or south -- there doesn't seem to be any compelling reason to get to that part of the Riverlands to make it worth the trouble.

Time? An extra week of travelling is not always going to be ideal.

 

 

 

[Bernie Mac]

On 06/03/2018 at 5:11 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Grasping at straws or grasping the easier, simpler conclusion? Those are also two separate people and the statements are not mutually exclusive or inclusive.

No, the first one seems to be correct. You are clearly grasping at straws. 

On 06/03/2018 at 5:11 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

I suppose Lord Redwyne and Lord Frey have a pretty sweet connection with rapists and murderers in the nights watch.

Are you under the impression that rapists and murderers are usually in command of the Night's Watch? 

None of the three Lord Commander's that Bowen has served have been murderers or rapists (at least as far as we know). 

Is your understanding of the series that to have connections to the Nights Watch a noble must have to know every person there? I'm sorry to say but this is a poorly thought out point.