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Strange Thing About the Twins


John Suburbs

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20 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don't think there is any doubt that the Freys are rich and powerful. I just think Martin screwed up a tad with the location of their supposed wealth generating bridge.

And I certainly don't believe they are close to the Manderlys level of wealth.

I don't think it's a screw up. At the time it was built, the crossing was at a key point between all of the warring kings in the area, and it provided crucial passage from west to east since it was not safe to move goods by river into another kingdom.

The situation is completely different now. Its military significance only arises once in a very great while, while the single jurisdiction under the king's peace means that goods can move down each fork and all the way to Saltpans and Maidenpool with relative safety. Sure, there are river pirates, but there are also robbers on the highways.

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10 minutes ago, House Beaudreau said:

The Iron Bank doesn't have to be loaning money to the Manderlys to be in White Harbor, they could be collecting debts from this lord or that lord or any of the merchants that are in White Harbor or they could have been negotiating something with Manderly and Glover to hedge their bet on Stannis, because it makes no sense whatsoever to loan Stannis money in the situation that he's in if they don't know something we don't. The Iron Bank isn't just giving money to Claimants they don't think have a chance. 

Stannis and Tycho don't make any arrangements or meet until the crofters village in Theon I of TWOW. Tycho had already made a deal with Jon at the Wall and then went to Deadwood Motte and made some sort of deal with Lady Glover to buy her Ironborn Hostages. And I believe he had already visited White Harbor and possible Maidenpool. All these things relating to the Iron Banks involvement in the events happening in the north seem like more than just random chance. There are things that don't make sense unless there is some sort of Northern conspiracy between Stannis, the Iron Bank, the Manderlys, the Umbers, Mance and the Glovers. 

the Coincidences are staking up if there is no conspiracy involving the Iron Bank and the Northern Lords

  • The Ships the Manderlys are building are irrelevant, it only shows that the manderlys and Umbers have been in cooperation since ACOK
  • The Umbers are definitely working some plan because they split up there forces, the young boys with Mors dug pits outside of Winterfell that the Freys fall into, but the Manderlys go out a different gate.
  • Mors wears a Snow bear pelt as a cloak which only comes from North of the Wall meaning there is some trading with the Wildlings, and some of the northern lords refer to Mance as "the Mance" like The Little or The Norrey or The Flint, Mance seems to be trading with the northern lords. 
  • Mance only gets into winterfell because the Manderlys don't bring a singer with them, and Mors horn signals the Spear wives where to escape with Theon and Jeyne Poole.
  • Manderly has already told Davos that they will support Stannis if he gets Rickon, but they don't really seem to care much for Arya meaning they probably know she is a fake, and Mance would know what Arya looks like. He would it at least know that jeyne poole doesn't have the Stark look. so it seem that the whole plan inside Winterfell was to rescue Theon. 
  • The Glovers release the Ironborn captives even though they hold there children at harlaw, but Robett Glover is at White Harbor with Manderlys and might know that there is already a plan in place to get Theon which would make a far better trade for his children which could be the reason his wife allows the Ironborn to go with Tycho. 
  • If Tycho was making a deal in White Harbor it would surely be in Stannis's favor considering the Iron Bank was getting ready to back Stannis.
  • And long shot if Tycho was in Maidenpool he was probably treating with Randyll Tarly, possible unrelated to the North but could a deal have been made that if Stannis wins the North the Tarlys will change sides and support his claim. They probably don't have a lot of love for the Lannisters and with Marge in prison, Loras possibly dying on Dragonstone and Willis a cripple they might think that there time is now to become the Rulers of the Reach... like I said this is a longshot, but Tarly does race back to King's Landing and take Margery back from the Faith, either to protect her or as a hostage maybe??? 
  • And Stannis sending Justin Massey to Essos to hire sellswords even if he hears that Stannis is dead tells me that the Iron Bank gave some sort of assurance that in the event of Stannis's death they would back Shireen's claim. Really willing to do anything to get their money back from the Iron Throne. 

I'll have to recheck. Was Stannis already gone from the Wall when Tycho showed up? I thought he had already cut a deal with Tycho.

I am sure the IB is working all the angles regarding Stannis and the northern lords, but there is no reason to conclude from this that the Manderlys are in need of money to build ships.

It's just a trading galley. I'll bet if you thumbed through the book and had a look at every seaport in the story you'd find a ship from Braavos there.

 

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I have not read all of the posts on here but I think the answer is pretty simple, the westerlands, and the ocean.

If you are looking to get items out of the westerlands and to Essos you have 2 choices.  Put them on a ship and risk the dangerous journey around Dorne including storms, Ironborn, and other random pirates.  Or you can walk them across the continent and only need to cross the narrow sea.  The closest place to do this would be the east coast of the neck.  While there are no ports shown here they would obviously exist.  This would also be the easiest way for the northwestern riverlands to trade with Essos.

Anytime the Ironborn acted up this trade route would become incredibly valuable, such as now.

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18 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I have not read all of the posts on here but I think the answer is pretty simple, the westerlands, and the ocean.

If you are looking to get items out of the westerlands and to Essos you have 2 choices.  Put them on a ship and risk the dangerous journey around Dorne including storms, Ironborn, and other random pirates.  Or you can walk them across the continent and only need to cross the narrow sea.  The closest place to do this would be the east coast of the neck.  While there are no ports shown here they would obviously exist.  This would also be the easiest way for the northwestern riverlands to trade with Essos.

Anytime the Ironborn acted up this trade route would become incredibly valuable, such as now.

If there was a seaport of note on the western end of the Bite I would agree with this. But there isn't, so this can't be a significant trade route. This is puzzling, I'll admit, but that's what we have. Back in the day the Sisters Islands were full of pirates, and they still like to play nasty tricks on passing ships, so maybe this is enough of a discouragement for trade.

So if you are going to move goods anywhere in the westerlands to Essos, wouldn't it make more sense to just head downriver on either the Red or Blue fork to Saltpans or Maidenpool? Why take the slow, difficult route all the way to the Twins -- handing over maybe 10 percent of your cargo to cross -- and then either north up the causeway (a two-week journey) and then all the way to White Harbor, or then back down the kingsroad to, well, Saltpans or Maidenpool. There are robbers and brigands on the roads as well as the seas, and it costs a lot to feed draft animals.

I can see how the crossing would be convenient for the trade originating in the vicinity of the Twins, but anyone involved in cross-continent or multi-continental trade would be foolish not to take the quick, easy and duty-free river straight to the key markets serving Essos, no? So it still seems that the Freys are only getting a trickle of side action while the majority of wealth is passing them by.

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38 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If there was a seaport of note on the western end of the Bite I would agree with this. But there isn't, so this can't be a significant trade route. This is puzzling, I'll admit, but that's what we have. Back in the day the Sisters Islands were full of pirates, and they still like to play nasty tricks on passing ships, so maybe this is enough of a discouragement for trade.

So if you are going to move goods anywhere in the westerlands to Essos, wouldn't it make more sense to just head downriver on either the Red or Blue fork to Saltpans or Maidenpool? Why take the slow, difficult route all the way to the Twins -- handing over maybe 10 percent of your cargo to cross -- and then either north up the causeway (a two-week journey) and then all the way to White Harbor, or then back down the kingsroad to, well, Saltpans or Maidenpool. There are robbers and brigands on the roads as well as the seas, and it costs a lot to feed draft animals.

I can see how the crossing would be convenient for the trade originating in the vicinity of the Twins, but anyone involved in cross-continent or multi-continental trade would be foolish not to take the quick, easy and duty-free river straight to the key markets serving Essos, no? So it still seems that the Freys are only getting a trickle of side action while the majority of wealth is passing them by.

I don't disagree with your sentiments, and I actually think the point about the sisters is really good.  The thing is there are really only 2 explanations, either its a screw up on GRRM's part, or something along the lines what I was saying, in essence its a more valuable trade route than can easily be seen for many possible reasons, because the Freys are in fact loaded, so there has to be an explanation.  Perhaps there is a fairly large amount of wood and or furs sent south from the north and to go to the west they cross the twins.

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12 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I don't disagree with your sentiments, and I actually think the point about the sisters is really good.  The thing is there are really only 2 explanations, either its a screw up on GRRM's part, or something along the lines what I was saying, in essence its a more valuable trade route than can easily be seen for many possible reasons, because the Freys are in fact loaded, so there has to be an explanation.  Perhaps there is a fairly large amount of wood and or furs sent south from the north and to go to the west they cross the twins.

My answer is that they are rich from local travel. Meaning travel from the surrounding 100-200 mile radius constitutes say 90% of their traffic. The other 10% may be longer journeys, from the North, Westerlands or whatever.

But for the most part they are milking their local Riverlanders, essentially transferring wealth from other Riverlanders to themselves. Not earning foreign revenue for their kingdom.

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7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

My answer is that they are rich from local travel. Meaning travel from the surrounding 100-200 mile radius constitutes say 90% of their traffic. The other 10% may be longer journeys, from the North, Westerlands or whatever.

But for the most part they are milking their local Riverlanders, essentially transferring wealth from other Riverlanders to themselves. Not earning foreign revenue for their kingdom.

I'd probably put the number a bit lower than that, but I see where your coming from and your probably right in general.  I'd say its probably a combination of things.

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On ‎3‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 2:02 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I don't disagree with your sentiments, and I actually think the point about the sisters is really good.  The thing is there are really only 2 explanations, either its a screw up on GRRM's part, or something along the lines what I was saying, in essence its a more valuable trade route than can easily be seen for many possible reasons, because the Freys are in fact loaded, so there has to be an explanation.  Perhaps there is a fairly large amount of wood and or furs sent south from the north and to go to the west they cross the twins.

Not really a screw up, because for a good 300 years after it was built, the crossing would have been a fairly lucrative source of income for the Freys. At any given time, there was war between the marsh kings, river kings, vale kings, storm kings and even iron kings, not to mention the Brackens, Blackwoods, Mallisters, Vances and any other house looking to expand their territory. So the need for armies to cross the GF quickly was much greater than it is today, and it would also produce a steady stream of refugees desperate to escape the fighting. At the same time, it would make shipping goods up and down the various forks much more hazardous because you would never know if you had crossed into hostile territory where your entire cargo could be "foraged."

Today, we can see from the map that the primary flow of goods moving overland would come to Kings Landing and then north on the Kingsroad. The Freys would get the traffic heading to their piece of the riverlands, but the bulk of the territory would be served by boats plying the rivers -- now that this is all one big peaceful kingdom, this is the fastest, easiest and cheapest way to move goods between this region and the main shipping ports on the Narrow Sea. So, sure, they are making some money off the regional traffic using the crossing, but the vast majority of wealth moving within and without the kingdom is passing them by.

And sorry, but I don't see how we can say for a fact that the Freys are loaded. Every other lord, lord protector, cheesemonger and slaver is presented with copious descriptions of their fine clothes, fancy jewels and the resplendency of their halls and manses, but not the Freys. Most lords do this because it presents an image of their wealth and power, and the Freys have always resented the fact that they are looked down upon. So if they have all this wealth at their disposal, why don't they show it?

I am certain they have quite a bit of money. I am just arguing that the main source of this wealth is no long the crossing, but their lands and holdings -- just like any other house.

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9 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Not really a screw up, because for a good 300 years after it was built, the crossing would have been a fairly lucrative source of income for the Freys. At any given time, there was war between the marsh kings, river kings, vale kings, storm kings and even iron kings, not to mention the Brackens, Blackwoods, Mallisters, Vances and any other house looking to expand their territory. So the need for armies to cross the GF quickly was much greater than it is today, and it would also produce a steady stream of refugees desperate to escape the fighting. At the same time, it would make shipping goods up and down the various forks much more hazardous because you would never know if you had crossed into hostile territory where your entire cargo could be "foraged."

Today, we can see from the map that the primary flow of goods moving overland would come to Kings Landing and then north on the Kingsroad. The Freys would get the traffic heading to their piece of the riverlands, but the bulk of the territory would be served by boats plying the rivers -- now that this is all one big peaceful kingdom, this is the fastest, easiest and cheapest way to move goods between this region and the main shipping ports on the Narrow Sea. So, sure, they are making some money off the regional traffic using the crossing, but the vast majority of wealth moving within and without the kingdom is passing them by.

And sorry, but I don't see how we can say for a fact that the Freys are loaded. Every other lord, lord protector, cheesemonger and slaver is presented with copious descriptions of their fine clothes, fancy jewels and the resplendency of their halls and manses, but not the Freys. Most lords do this because it presents an image of their wealth and power, and the Freys have always resented the fact that they are looked down upon. So if they have all this wealth at their disposal, why don't they show it?

I am certain they have quite a bit of money. I am just arguing that the main source of this wealth is no long the crossing, but their lands and holdings -- just like any other house.

The Marsh Kings haven't existed for 4000 years.

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On ‎3‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 2:11 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

My answer is that they are rich from local travel. Meaning travel from the surrounding 100-200 mile radius constitutes say 90% of their traffic. The other 10% may be longer journeys, from the North, Westerlands or whatever.

But for the most part they are milking their local Riverlanders, essentially transferring wealth from other Riverlanders to themselves. Not earning foreign revenue for their kingdom.

 

On ‎3‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 2:20 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I'd probably put the number a bit lower than that, but I see where your coming from and your probably right in general.  I'd say its probably a combination of things.

Agreed. Anyone outside of 10-15 miles of the twins would be more likely to send goods downriver. If this is just local traffic, then the crossing would only be worthwhile if there was a better market on one side vs. the other. It would have to pay quite the premium for goods because traders from across the river would not only have to give up a percentage of their cargo on the first crossing but then pay the passenger toll coming back. But this is unlikely because there is no reason why goods produced on one side should be any more valuable on the other -- unless, of course, the Freys are deliberately buying up supplies on one side to create an artificial shortage...? But like FMR said, this would only be milking your own territory, not bringing in wealth from the outside.

I do wonder if the Freys are allowed to stop river traffic coming from their north. If anyone is harvesting timber in the forest west of the marshes, that would pretty much have to move by riverboat, so would the Freys have a right to stop and tax some of this cargo? Maybe, but that wouldn't be income from the crossing, just their hold on the river.

Another potentially lucrative commodity from that part of the realm would be lizard-lion skins, but I've never seen anyone wearing alligator leather, even though it would probably make fairly decent armor.

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6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not really a screw up, because for a good 300 years after it was built, the crossing would have been a fairly lucrative source of income for the Freys. At any given time, there was war between the marsh kings, river kings, vale kings, storm kings and even iron kings, not to mention the Brackens, Blackwoods, Mallisters, Vances and any other house looking to expand their territory. So the need for armies to cross the GF quickly was much greater than it is today, and it would also produce a steady stream of refugees desperate to escape the fighting. At the same time, it would make shipping goods up and down the various forks much more hazardous because you would never know if you had crossed into hostile territory where your entire cargo could be "foraged."

Today, we can see from the map that the primary flow of goods moving overland would come to Kings Landing and then north on the Kingsroad. The Freys would get the traffic heading to their piece of the riverlands, but the bulk of the territory would be served by boats plying the rivers -- now that this is all one big peaceful kingdom, this is the fastest, easiest and cheapest way to move goods between this region and the main shipping ports on the Narrow Sea. So, sure, they are making some money off the regional traffic using the crossing, but the vast majority of wealth moving within and without the kingdom is passing them by.

And sorry, but I don't see how we can say for a fact that the Freys are loaded. Every other lord, lord protector, cheesemonger and slaver is presented with copious descriptions of their fine clothes, fancy jewels and the resplendency of their halls and manses, but not the Freys. Most lords do this because it presents an image of their wealth and power, and the Freys have always resented the fact that they are looked down upon. So if they have all this wealth at their disposal, why don't they show it?

I am certain they have quite a bit of money. I am just arguing that the main source of this wealth is no long the crossing, but their lands and holdings -- just like any other house.

I would argue the dowry he offers for his daughters is the proof, along with the simple expense of maintaining a castle.  We are specifically told Whent can't defend Harrenhall, but the Freys have over a thousand heavy horse and when they(The northern host) come upon the castle they say there is an archer like every foot on their walls.

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18 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I would argue the dowry he offers for his daughters is the proof, along with the simple expense of maintaining a castle.  We are specifically told Whent can't defend Harrenhall, but the Freys have over a thousand heavy horse and when they(The northern host) come upon the castle they say there is an archer like every foot on their walls.

I'm not saying they are broke. They have plenty of wealth, including income from the crossing. I'm just saying that crossing itself is no longer the critical military/commercial junction that it once was, and is no longer the primary source of their wealth.

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On 3/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

But there is nothing ostentatious about them, at least as far as we can tell. Virtually every other noble person we see gets a full description of their fine clothes, expensive jewels, the lavishness of their hall, the grandeur of their feasts, but nobody notices anything of the sort about the Freys. So, yes, their large family and upkeep on the bridge and their castles are likely bleeding the house dry, which would not be the case if they were receiving a substantial income from the crossing.

Well, I suspect part of the reason for that is because we're supposed to define the Frey's by the sheer number of them.  Besides, there are plenty of other wealthy lords who we don't get elaborate descriptions of.  Frankly, I'd guess (I haven't looked into it) that most of the "fancy" descriptions we get are at court, or when we're meant to be awed (or the POV character is) by splendor.  These novels are huge; trimming a couple hundred or thousand words here and there by skimping on the details of day-to-day dress is smart editing.

On 3/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

But look at the situation back then compared to now. You had any number of marsh kings, river kings, vale kings, storm kings and iron kings all warring against each other, not to mention warfare between Brackens, Blackwoods, Vances, Mallisters and others. All of this would not only result in armies desperate to cross the river in order to get a jump on their enemies, but would lead to a flood of refugees trying to escape the fighting. Add to that the fact there is no main artery diverting the flow of goods around the Twins, and the only crossing on the Green Fork would serve as a natural conduit for trade in the area.

This wasn't the situation.  600 years ago the Riverlands were firmly under the control of the powerful Storm Kings, and then the Hoares.  The scenario you are describing does not exist

On 3/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

Since the Conquest, however, the only known crossing by an army was Robb's. Even if we add Ned and Torrhen Stark, that amounts to three in the last 300 years. And with the kingdom united, there is no longer a risk when moving goods down river because the chances of it being confiscated by a hostile army is nil.

And Roddy the Ruin.  But you don't seem to understand how economics and trade works.  The Frey's aren't wealthy because they're levying tolls on passing armies - they are wealthy because they levy tolls on merchants and trade.  They also control the river if anyone tries to portage.  Peacetime benefits, not hurts, the Freys.

On 3/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

Nonsense, Hoster Tully is not going to just pick an amount out of thin air and demand it of all his vassals. That's a sure way to lead to rebellion. If he doesn't have his own eyes and ears verifying the trade activity in his realm then he has to rely on the honesty of his bannermen. But he's not stupid; of course he is going to have officials and taxmen checking up on all the mills, inns, keeps, villages, towns and river crossings to make sure a) he is not being cheated, and b ) that the safety and security of his realm is in good order.

You misunderstood.  The amount doesn't change.  The Freys are obligated to provide a fixed amount of men and money (or goods in kind) every year.  It doesn't change.  Ever.  And no, Hoster won't have taxmen or officials - this isn't how medieval societies functioned.  There was barely any central democracy to speak of.  It's why the Church was so important.  Churches were rich in part because the monks and such were literate, and thus better able to monetize their land.  If Hoster Tully is receiving what Walder Frey owes him, he's not checking any further - he has no legal right to demand more.  This is what led to the decline of feudalism in the first place - as the Price Revolution took hold after the Black Death in the 14th Century, prices and wages began rising but feudal revenues were stagnant, impoverishing most nobles.

On 3/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, they are recognized as rich and powerful -- mistake on my part. But where do you think Stark silver comes from? I've never heard anyone mention the Starks operating a silver mine. They receive their coin primarily from the duties collected in White Harbor or from their own surplus goods sold in White Harbor.

I mean, they make their money on taxes and then selling the goods received.  That White Harbor is the only port is why the Manderly's are wealthy, but it doesn't mean that the Manderly's themselves are the source of that silver.  Also, it's not like other Houses won't have specie with which to pay taxes - everything else aside, this is a world with an established and viable currency.  As we see with the Vale lords, selling goods on an open market (almost certainly the Free Cities) is so commonplace as to be routine, and the various lords receive currency in return.  The Starks can and probably do collect some of their tax revenue (perhaps all) in currency; it's the peasants at the bottom paying in kind, which probably gradually becomes more and more converted into currency as you go up the feudal chain and achieve the economies of scale needed to make selling goods worthwhile.

On 3/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

This is my point: it is contradicted in the text but only because the POVs who are providing the text are being misled. Just as we were told that Dorne could field 50,000 spears, the talk of vast Frey wealth from the crossing is overblown. In what way would north-south or cross-continental trade rely on the Twins? All the trade from Essos is coming into White Harbor, Maindenpool, Saltpans, King's Landing or other seaports, with most of it heading up the kingsroad. If you wanted to access that relatively small part of the riverlands, would it make more sense to wagon it up the road, turn left to the Twins, pay the toll and then overland again to market, or just sail it upriver. Draft animals are very slow and expensive, boats are fast and require no fodder.

Well I happen to agree with you that the "vast wealth" of the Frey's is a result of early installment weirdness.  However, the Frey's ALSO have a fair bit of land subinfeudated to their vassals, so it's better to think of them like the Manderly's - wealthy and powerful vassals who, unlike most, have an additional source of commercial income to rely on.

I think you are also discounting how difficult it is to move goods against the current, especially near the headwaters of a river.  This is why the idea that the Freys are taking advantage of trade from Seagard makes sense - any merchant worth their salt is going to prefer to portage that way, and cut many months off of their travel time, by going down the river and into the Bay of Crabs and then across the Narrow Sea, than by taking the extremely dangerous, extremely long way around Westeros.

Look, we know the Freys are wealthy.  All we need to is to find a legitimate reason why this could be so, not find a reason it can't be.  Yes, you could be right that the Blue Fork is better for trade.  But if the Green Fork is the superior trade route from Ironman's Bay, then everything makes sense.  Why make an issue out of something with a simple explanation?

On 3/17/2018 at 2:32 PM, John Suburbs said:

Seagard is not a major trading port; it's pretty much a defensive fort. Just to get goods to Seagard is a risk because you have to snake your way through the narrow channels in Ironmen's Bay. Sure, the ironmen are not the reavers they once were, but they're still not above boarding a ship, taking all the loot and scuttling it. I don't see why anyone would want to move goods north from Seagard to the Twins, pay the toll to cross and then sail their cargo down the Green Fork. Look at the map: wouldn't it make more sense to portage it to the headwaters of the Blue Fork, or cut directly across to the GF south of the Twins and head downriver from there?

Seagard is almost certainly a port, or else it wouldn't be located where it is.  And you are assuming a great deal about the geography of the Riverlands.  Given the proximity of the hilly Westerlands, it's quite possible that the southern shores of Ironman's Bay are very hilly or mountainous, making portage nigh-on impossible.  The northern coast is far more likely to be flat, from what we know in-text.  We also don't know how navigable the Blue Fork is near Hag's Mire, whereas we do know that the Green Fork runs deep and fast enough to not be fordable anywhere above or below the Twins for many many miles.

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19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Well, I suspect part of the reason for that is because we're supposed to define the Frey's by the sheer number of them.  Besides, there are plenty of other wealthy lords who we don't get elaborate descriptions of.  Frankly, I'd guess (I haven't looked into it) that most of the "fancy" descriptions we get are at court, or when we're meant to be awed (or the POV character is) by splendor.  These novels are huge; trimming a couple hundred or thousand words here and there by skimping on the details of day-to-day dress is smart editing.

Maybe, but in countless other examples we get descriptions of tunics, doublets, footwear, capes, jewelry or pretty much all aspects of armor -- helms, breastplates, gauntlets, greaves... Since Walder Frey in particular is generally cheesed off that other lords look down on him, it seems logical that he would want to dress himself and adorn his halls in ways that reflect this vast wealth he has accumulated from the crossing. But if he is, nobody seems to notice.

And if this is omitted due to smart editing, why is it included on so many other characters? All it takes is a sentence or two.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This wasn't the situation.  600 years ago the Riverlands were firmly under the control of the powerful Storm Kings, and then the Hoares.  The scenario you are describing does not exist

Per the World Book, Arlan III Durandon conquered the riverlands and parts of the north, so it's likely that he controlled some or all of the neck. He and his heirs then reigned for three centuries, during which time "the riverlords rose against Storm's End at least once each generation. A dozen pretenders from as many houses would adopt the style of River King or King of the Trident and vow to throw off the yoke of the stormlanders. Some even succeeded ... for a fortnight, a moon's turn, even a year." The names listed in these failed efforts include Lucifer Justman, Marq Mudd, Robert Vance, Petyr Mallister and Lady Jeyne Nutt, plus at least one bastard king.

So there was plenty of warfare prior to Harwyn Hoare's invasion sometime around 80 BC or so, and both he and his son Halleck spent their reigns warring in the region. Harren, of course, pretty much enslaved the riverlanders to build his castle, which would have been ample reason to see a steady stream of refugees.

So, sorry, but the situation is exactly as I described.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

And Roddy the Ruin.  But you don't seem to understand how economics and trade works.  The Frey's aren't wealthy because they're levying tolls on passing armies - they are wealthy because they levy tolls on merchants and trade.  They also control the river if anyone tries to portage.  Peacetime benefits, not hurts, the Freys.

Roderic Dustin went from the north to the God's Eye long after the kingsroad was established. Why on earth would he cross the Twins to do that?

I'm afraid you're the one who doesn't understand trade. Moving goods overland is slow and expensive, while moving them over fast-moving water is cheap and easy. When there was constant warfare in the region, as demonstrated above, and no major route connecting north and south, traffic over the crossing would have been significant. Now that the major overland route to the north passes the twins completely and there is clear sailing up and down all three forks, there is no reason for anything but local/regional traffic over the twins. They are largely irrelevant to the continental and transcontinental flow of goods.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

You misunderstood.  The amount doesn't change.  The Freys are obligated to provide a fixed amount of men and money (or goods in kind) every year.  It doesn't change.  Ever.  And no, Hoster won't have taxmen or officials - this isn't how medieval societies functioned.  There was barely any central democracy to speak of.  It's why the Church was so important.  Churches were rich in part because the monks and such were literate, and thus better able to monetize their land.  If Hoster Tully is receiving what Walder Frey owes him, he's not checking any further - he has no legal right to demand more.  This is what led to the decline of feudalism in the first place - as the Price Revolution took hold after the Black Death in the 14th Century, prices and wages began rising but feudal revenues were stagnant, impoverishing most nobles.

Sorry, but that would be absurd. You're saying that regardless of how much money is being made or what harvests are like, Hoster Tully just sits in his castle demanding exorbitant amounts of money and goods from all his vassals. Not only would this lead to rebellion, but it would also short Riverrun in times of plenty. Medieval lords had all manner of taxmen, sheriffs (as in, of Nottingham), inspectors, and other officials to keep an eye on things.

From the World Book again, Daeron II:

"However, Prince Maron had won a few concessions in the accord, and the lords of Dorne held significant rights and privileges that the other great houses did not—the right to keep their royal title first among them, but also the autonomy to maintain their own laws, the right to assess and gather the taxes due to the Iron Throne with only irregular oversight from the Red Keep, and other such matters."

The dragons made a special deal with Dorne for "irregular oversight", which means all other lords are subjected to regular oversight. So there is no reason why a lord would not do the same within his realm. It's just common sense. Is there any text that says the Freys owe a fixed amount to Riverrun?

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I mean, they make their money on taxes and then selling the goods received.  That White Harbor is the only port is why the Manderly's are wealthy, but it doesn't mean that the Manderly's themselves are the source of that silver.  Also, it's not like other Houses won't have specie with which to pay taxes - everything else aside, this is a world with an established and viable currency.  As we see with the Vale lords, selling goods on an open market (almost certainly the Free Cities) is so commonplace as to be routine, and the various lords receive currency in return.  The Starks can and probably do collect some of their tax revenue (perhaps all) in currency; it's the peasants at the bottom paying in kind, which probably gradually becomes more and more converted into currency as you go up the feudal chain and achieve the economies of scale needed to make selling goods worthwhile.

Like any lord with a seaport, the Manderlys collect the duty in imports and exports either in coin or as a percentage of the cargo. If the duty is paid in goods, then they are either sold for coin or shipped to their liege as payment of taxes.

The Manderlys are wealthy precisely because they are sitting on the key point of entry for trade coming from Essos into the north. The Freys, on the other hand, are sitting on one of four ways in which goods from Essos can get into the riverlands, and the other three ways provide a much quicker and cheaper alternative. Like I said, if there was a seaport on the western edge of the Bite things might be different. But there isn't, which suggests that there is not a significant amount of trade flowing this way. So at best, the Freys are tapping the local trade moving around their realm, which does generate income but only from their local economy. It is not bring in significant amounts of wealth from afar.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Well I happen to agree with you that the "vast wealth" of the Frey's is a result of early installment weirdness.  However, the Frey's ALSO have a fair bit of land subinfeudated to their vassals, so it's better to think of them like the Manderly's - wealthy and powerful vassals who, unlike most, have an additional source of commercial income to rely on.

I never said the Freys were not wealthy, just that their historical source of wealth, the crossing, is not the main revenue-generator it once was. Their additional income on top of what they receive from their lands and vassals is greatly diminished because the area is now stable and they are no longer sitting on the main trade route. So there is no reason to think of them as significantly more powerful than any other lord with similar holdings, and the military importance of their bridge has been miniscule for the past 300 years -- although now that the dragons are gone and the realm is breaking up, that may change.

20 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I think you are also discounting how difficult it is to move goods against the current, especially near the headwaters of a river.  This is why the idea that the Freys are taking advantage of trade from Seagard makes sense - any merchant worth their salt is going to prefer to portage that way, and cut many months off of their travel time, by going down the river and into the Bay of Crabs and then across the Narrow Sea, than by taking the extremely dangerous, extremely long way around Westeros.

If this was the case, then rivers would not have produced the cradle of civilization. Every ancient civilization evolved around rivers precisely because they are so convenient for trade. Yandry and Ysilla make their living trading up and down no less a mighty river than the Royne. They poll their way downriver to Volantis, then sail upriver on the return. Jaime mentions that this is how it's done in the riverlands, as on the Greenblood in Dorne. Even Arya recognizes that a boat with a sail can get her to Riverrun faster than walking.

What river are you talking about? The Green Fork? Why on earth would any trader with half a brain pay to cross the twins just so they can load cargo on the east side of the Green Fork rather than the west side? For that matter, why would they choose to travel northwest to the Twins and then south on the GF when they are only a few clicks north of the Blue Fork and can get to the BoC in a fraction of the time?

Sorry, but none of this makes sense when it comes to international trade. There are numerous cheaper, easier ways to move goods from coast to coast then paying up at the twins. At best, the crossing is good for local trade -- common goods of common value.

20 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Look, we know the Freys are wealthy.  All we need to is to find a legitimate reason why this could be so, not find a reason it can't be.  Yes, you could be right that the Blue Fork is better for trade.  But if the Green Fork is the superior trade route from Ironman's Bay, then everything makes sense.  Why make an issue out of something with a simple explanation?

Sorry, but again, I don't see any sign of them being any wealthier than any other lord -- and the lack of text describing any sort of finery in their dress or décor leads me to the conclusion that they are not as wealthy as people think they are. My guess is that the large number of Freys at the Twins and upkeep on the bridge and castles is tapping their resources pretty badly.

The Blue Fork is better from Ironmen's Bay, at least on the map in Dance. You have to get around the marshy areas at the headwaters, but after that it's smooth sailing. You don't have to go north to then go south, there is no toll, and there is a sizable trading town right on its banks: Fairmarket. But even if the Green Fork is better for some unknown reason, you don't have to cross at the Twins to get to it.

20 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Seagard is almost certainly a port, or else it wouldn't be located where it is.  And you are assuming a great deal about the geography of the Riverlands.  Given the proximity of the hilly Westerlands, it's quite possible that the southern shores of Ironman's Bay are very hilly or mountainous, making portage nigh-on impossible.  The northern coast is far more likely to be flat, from what we know in-text.  We also don't know how navigable the Blue Fork is near Hag's Mire, whereas we do know that the Green Fork runs deep and fast enough to not be fordable anywhere above or below the Twins for many many miles.

Seagard is never described as a major trading port -- it's more of a defensive fort with a bell to warn locals of an ironmen attack. To get goods in and out of Seagard, you have to travel the narrow straits past the Iron Isles, which would have been extremely risky before the Conquest and only slightly less so after. But the Myraham is moving goods from the south to Seagard and Pyke, so there is some trade there, and some of it might come across at the Twins. But again, this is a pittance compared to the main action coming and going from/to Essos and up and down the kingsroad and the forks.

But one more time, why would anyone want to travel north to the Twins just to give up x percent of their cash or cargo just so they can load goods on the east side of the GF instead of the west?

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57 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Per the World Book, Arlan III Durandon conquered the riverlands and parts of the north, so it's likely that he controlled some or all of the neck. He and his heirs then reigned for three centuries, during which time "the riverlords rose against Storm's End at least once each generation.

I'm pretty sure you got that wrong. The Storm Kings didn't capture any parts of the North. They ruled the current Stormlands, Crownlands and Riverlands. Also, the Stormland border of the time included parts of what is today the eastern Reach. But their realm at its maximum extent ended at the Neck. They never conquered parts of the North.

If you are able to show me a quote that contradicts this, I will concede, but I don't think I'm wrong on this.

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On 20/03/2018 at 10:34 PM, cpg2016 said:

And no, Hoster won't have taxmen or officials - this isn't how medieval societies functioned.  There was barely any central democracy to speak of. 

There was never one way that medieval societies functioned. We're talking about a period of hundreds of years across a whole continent. There was no single tax system. And Westros doesn't have to follow the exact model of feudal Europe anyhow. 

Anyway, we know full well that in Medieval Europe there were tax officials. There were sheriffs, seneschals, etc. Many kings made it their primary goal to build some kind of strong central administration - Henry I and Henry III in England, Philip IV in France. Their conflicts with the barons over this arguably defined their reigns. 

Taxes are likely to be negotiated, rather than imposed. We see that Redwyne won concessions on taxes on his wine as a result of his support for Joffery, for example. A lord would have to discuss with his vassal, particularly a powerful one like Frey, what they considered a fair tax given their income. A canny lord (which Hoster appears to be), would make it his business to find out what Frey's actual income was ahead of such discussions, and try to keep appraised of this as time moves on, so that if things change for the better or worse this can be addressed. 

However, we probably shouldn't make any absolute statements regarding the 7K taxation system, as the truth is none of us know, it's not addressed in any detail in the text, which is hardly surprising as GRRM probably didn't feel the need to map out the finer details of Westrosi accounting in order to make his books interesting. 

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