U.S Politics; The Price of Steele

[Fragile Bird]

16 minutes ago, Mexal said:

 

A CNN panel has just pointed out several things:

1. Presidents have been invited to meet with North Koreans for years, but the US has always had pre-conditions that have never been met so no meetings have happened,

2. Trump has jumped on this meeting without getting anything from the North Koreans,

3. Obama suggested dialogue with US enemies should commence and the Republicans repeatedly attacked him for even thinking of doing this,

4. There is no US ambassador to South Korea, an appointment Trump has not gotten around to making, and an ambassador would be a key person in such a meeting,

5. The senior Korean specialists in the State Department have resigned and have not been replaced,

6. The South Korean delegation apparently profusely thanked McMaster for being a key figure in arranging their meetings with the North Koreans, and for the last two weeks we've constantly heard McMaster is going to be dumped by Trump any day now,

7. Trump would have to be extensively briefed on North Korea, and he won't even read the daily briefings let alone spend hours being briefed on something.

In some ways it's good Obama never had a chance to meet with the North Koreans, because in the case of the 2 other major enemies Obama did have talks with, everyone is expecting Trump will back out of the Iranian agreement sooner or later, since he campaigned on it being the worst foreign agreement entered into in the history of the USA, and Trump has undone large parts of what Obama did with regard to Cuba. If Obama had talks with Korea Trump would surely have undone everything by now as well.

[Rippounet]

20 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Also, let's be accurate here, stoners don't just "swallow food," the munchies are a very personal and particular thing to all that partake.

You're telling me. I remember gorging on nothing else but dry-cured Spanish jamón or fried diced bacon.
Which would be nothing extraordinary if I hadn't been a vegetarian at the time.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

You're telling me. I remember gorging on nothing else but dry-cured Spanish jamón or fried diced bacon.
Which would be nothing extraordinary if I hadn't been a vegetarian at the time.

LOL, those are some weird cravings.  Hope you weren't pregnant.

[The Anti-Targ]

Is Kim Jong Un playing Trump? I don't see any country giving up Nukes once they have them, least of all North Korea.

Or perhaps things in North Korea are so bad that even Kim Jong Un himself is having a hard time getting 3 square meals a day and enough gas to drive him around to where he wants to go.

Or has China put the hard word on them?

Or has Trump really scared him into cooperating and he decided de-nuking is the only course of action? But then North Korea is back to where they were pre-Nuke and feeling vulnerable once more, but this time with an even scarier US president than the one who was in power when they started their nuke programme.

[Shryke]

Yes, he's probably playing Trump.

Indications are (from what I've read) that North Korea is kinda broke and may lack the funds to continue nuclear tests. At least for the moment.

They've also been asking US Presidents to meet with them for ages now, to bolster their own power and credibility.

So what we have here is in large part the North Koreans offering Trump a visit that will be a symbolic victory for them in exchange for giving up something they probably couldn't do anyway.

If Trump had a competant SoS or a functioning State Department or wasn't an illiterate toddler who cant focus on anything that doesn't include his name and so doesn't even listen to the heavily edited 2 sentence PDB he gets, h'd have been told this. But instead he'll do it cause it makes him look good in the press and that's all he cares about and no one is around to tell him otherwise.

 

Of course, the same reasons why he'll do it unconditionally are also the same reasons why it's not likely to amount to much because there's like zero chance his people are capable of preparing him to actually get anything done in this kind of meeting.

[Yukle]

Trump seems to literally agree with whatever he was last told. Maybe the North Koreans are testing the waters. Alternatively. they may be planning to use whatever classified information he just spouts all of the time - as Russia has already done in their one-on-one meetings with him.

[Crazydog7]

In Trump's defense who knew diplomacy/leading a country was so hard...besides everyone. 

[LongRider]

3 minutes ago, Crazydog7 said:

In Trump's defense who knew diplomacy/leading a country was so hard...besides everyone. 

Well, Dubya coulda told him, but I hear the Bushes don't speak to Cadet Bone Spurs, so there is that. 

[DMC]

3 hours ago, Shryke said:

If Trump had a competant SoS or a functioning State Department or wasn't an illiterate toddler who cant focus on anything that doesn't include his name and so doesn't even listen to the heavily edited 2 sentence PDB he gets, h'd have been told this. But instead he'll do it cause it makes him look good in the press and that's all he cares about and no one is around to tell him otherwise.

Yep.  This is a growing concern as we begin the phase wherein most abandon his administration.  What's his B team going to look like?  Or, considering the turnover already, the C team?  Much more than anything about his presidency, this is what keeps me up at nights.

2 hours ago, Crazydog7 said:

In Trump's defense who knew diplomacy/leading a country was so hard...besides everyone. 

Remind me never to call you if I need to be defended.

2 hours ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Well, Dubya coulda told him, but I hear the Bushes don't speak to Cadet Bone Spurs, so there is that. 

Hey, he just helped Jeb's kid get elected dogcatcher of Texas or something.

[mormont]

On Korea, however it turns out, it's worth remembering that this only happened because in this particular situation Trump had an ally in Moon Jae-In who was able and willing to play good cop to his bad cop. That's not a situation that exists in any other context facing the USA that I can think of. 

That said, if something material does come out of this, it'll be a good thing.

[DMC]

I think the South Koreans have always been willing to play the good cop.  Generally, it's just not worthwhile for the US president to get involved without certain assurances.  I actually think it's cool that Trump is willing to break that posture, except he's obviously doing it for ratings and "winning" instead of the right reasons.

[Martell Spy]

57 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

I think the South Koreans have always been willing to play the good cop.  Generally, it's just not worthwhile for the US president to get involved without certain assurances.  I actually think it's cool that Trump is willing to break that posture, except he's obviously doing it for ratings and "winning" instead of the right reasons.

Well it is an improvement over nuke and war threats, but anything is. I'd settle for just kicking the can down the road at this point.

Only Republican Presidents are allowed to make dovish moves because it is the only way to shut up the defense Hawks. Just as only Republican Presidents are allowed to explode the deficit.

[DMC]

39 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Well it is an improvement over nuke and war threats, but anything is.

How low has the bar sunken?  Someone call James Cameron!

40 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Only Republican Presidents are allowed to make dovish moves because it is the only way to shut up the defense Hawks.

Yep.  This is the nature of something I mentioned recently - when things seem intractable, only presidents that retain credibility as "anti" something can affect change on the "pro" something side.  Problem with this cross-cutting logic is what can Dem presidents do?  Cut more taxes?  Start more wars?  It kinda really sucks.

[all swedes are racist]

9 hours ago, Yukle said:

Trump seems to literally agree with whatever he was last told. Maybe the North Koreans are testing the waters. Alternatively. they may be planning to use whatever classified information he just spouts all of the time - as Russia has already done in their one-on-one meetings with him.

trumps gonna come back as a full on tankie

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Devil’s Advocate Position: Trump isn’t playing Kim and Kim isn’t playing Trump. They’re playing everyone else outside of their little game.

Trump loves professional wrestling. He’s in the damn WWF (I refuse to call it the WWE) Hall of Fame and he understands the showmanship required to make it a viable product. He let my favorite wrestler, Stone Cold Steve Austin, embarrass him on live T.V. Why? Because he got a lot of attention, and Trump has always said bad press is better than no press. Wrestling, in and of itself, is kind of generic and there isn’t a lot of variety. It’s the show that makes it so much fun. FFS, Hulk Hogan finished people off with the lamest moves ever, and he’s one of the most celebrated wrestlers ever. 

Kim, like his father and his father before him, understood the importance of the spectacle too. Be it the hyper organized military parades, the bellicose language on the international stage that they knew would likely never cost them, the continuous desire to have a documented meeting with a U.S. president and other world leaders and their nuclear pursuits. In many ways, just like professional wrestling, it was a show designed to make incremental gains. And often times it worked. The Kims never cared about their people, so their personal gains at the sacrifice of the Plebs weighed little on them.

So why would any of this matter? Because, as we’ve seen in the case of Russia, there was an aggressive attempt to establish a back channel with a foreign advisory with whom Trump sought to benefit from. Why is it so much more farfetched to think secret talks with North Korea could have happened too? Look at how they spoke about one another in front of the world. Both leaders are thin skinned narcissists, so why would they seek peace while publicly trashing one another in very heavy handed ways? It doesn’t make sense unless you are willing to consider the possibility of a mutual understanding in which they agree to use a negotiation tactic that normally wouldn’t work well with people of their personal makeup, for the show. The Game.  

They both have a lot to gain from this. Trump gets to change the headlines again, which have been really negative for him lately and we know he cares a lot more about the narrative than he does about the actual details about what he’s doing. This is made worse by the fact that he lacks stability and shows no signs of intellectual curiosity, arguably the two most important traits in a leader. Kim, on the other hand, might already be at the point where he has enough nuclear weapons and long range capability to ensure North Korea is one of the countries that benefit the security of Mutually Assured Destruction. That’s literally the only reason why I can see him saying that he’ll halt the program for now, and there is no chance that he’ll give up and destroy the nuclear program. Doing so would put his regime in dire circumstances.

This leads to the Kim regime’s ultimate goal: Reunification of the Korean peninsula under their control. Giving up their nuclear program doesn’t seem like a rational play if that goal hasn’t changed. Seeking toothless actions to end their nuclear program, and delaying actual actions after they’ve already been achieved, on the other hand, does seem like a smart strategy. 

I recognize that this hypothetical is likely wrong, but there are realistic aspects to it worth considering. Sometimes when we brainstorm about the most outlandish scenarios, the real ones become more apparent. And something about what’s going on seems wrong, unless everyone involved is really that dumb and short sighted.

Sadly, that is a reality.

We’ve been cursed to live in interesting times.

[Martell Spy]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Devil’s Advocate Position: Trump isn’t playing Kim and Kim isn’t playing Trump. They’re playing everyone else outside of their little game.

Trump loves professional wrestling. He’s in the damn WWF (I refuse to call it the WWE) Hall of Fame and he understands the showmanship required to make it a viable product. He let my favorite wrestler, Stone Cold Steve Austin, embarrass him on live T.V. Why? Because he got a lot of attention, and Trump has always said bad press is better than no press. Wrestling, in and of itself, is kind of generic and there isn’t a lot of variety. It’s the show that makes it so much fun. FFS, Hulk Hogan finished people off with the lamest moves ever, and he’s one of the most celebrated wrestlers ever. 

Kim, like his father and his father before him, understood the importance of the spectacle too. Be it the hyper organized military parades, the bellicose language on the international stage that they knew would likely never cost them, the continuous desire to have a documented meeting with a U.S. president and other world leaders and their nuclear pursuits. In many ways, just like professional wrestling, it was a show designed to make incremental gains. And often times it worked. The Kims never cared about their people, so their personal gains at the sacrifice of the Plebs weighed little on them.

So why would any of this matter? Because, as we’ve seen in the case of Russia, there was an aggressive attempt to establish a back channel with a foreign advisory with whom Trump sought to benefit from. Why is it so much more farfetched to think secret talks with North Korea could have happened too? Look at how they spoke about one another in front of the world. Both leaders are thin skinned narcissists, so why would they seek peace while publicly trashing one another in very heavy handed ways? It doesn’t make sense unless you are willing to consider the possibility of a mutual understanding in which they agree to use a negotiation tactic that normally wouldn’t work well with people of their personal makeup, for the show. The Game.  

They both have a lot to gain from this. Trump gets to change the headlines again, which have been really negative for him lately and we know he cares a lot more about the narrative than he does about the actual details about what he’s doing. This is made worse by the fact that he lacks stability and shows no signs of intellectual curiosity, arguably the two most important traits in a leader. Kim, on the other hand, might already be at the point where he has enough nuclear weapons and long range capability to ensure North Korea is one of the countries that benefit the security of Mutually Assured Destruction. That’s literally the only reason why I can see him saying that he’ll halt the program for now, and there is no chance that he’ll give up and destroy the nuclear program. Doing so would put his regime in dire circumstances.

This leads to the Kim regime’s ultimate goal: Reunification of the Korean peninsula under their control. Giving up their nuclear program doesn’t seem like a rational play if that goal hasn’t changed. Seeking toothless actions to end their nuclear program, and delaying actual actions after they’ve already been achieved, on the other hand, does seem like a smart strategy. 

I recognize that this hypothetical is likely wrong, but there are realistic aspects to it worth considering. Sometimes when we brainstorm about the most outlandish scenarios, the real ones become more apparent. And something about what’s going on seems wrong, unless everyone involved is really that dumb and short sighted.

Sadly, that is a reality.

We’ve been cursed to live in interesting times.

It comes down to NK will not rid themselves of nukes if U.S. does not withdraw all troops, a condition no President will accept, even Trump.

So, we are just kicking the can and one day NK will have nukes. This is bad, but it is an improvement if a President other than Trump is dealing with it. I would also like to live another 5 years.

[SeanF]

Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring in the Summer.

[LongRider]

3 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring in the Summer.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SeanF]

1 minute ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is Trump's opportunity to nominate Roy Moore to SCOTUS.

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring in the Summer.

Do we have that from anyone other than Dean Heller?  I hardly think he's a credible source on this.